An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction

Land‐cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land‐cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land‐cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land‐cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land‐cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.     

Contrasting responses of migration strategies in two European thrushes to climate change

Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus , and the partially migrant blackbird T. merula . We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i.e. mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species.     

Interactions between land use,habitat use,and population increase in greater snow geese: what are the consequences for natural wetlands?

The North American greater snow goose population has increased dramatically during the last 40 years. We evaluated whether refuge creation, changes in land use on the wintering and staging grounds, and climate warming have contributed to this expansion by affecting the distribution, habitat use, body condition, and migration phenology of birds. We also reviewed the effects of the increasing population on marshes on the wintering grounds, along the migratory routes and on the tundra in summer. Refuges established before 1970 may have contributed to the initial demographic increase. The most important change, however, was the switch from a diet entirely based on marsh plants in spring and winter (rhizomes of Scirpus/Spartina) to one dominated by crops (corn/young grass shoots) during the 1970s and 1980s. Geese now winter further north along the US Atlantic coast, leading to reduced hunting mortality. Their migratory routes now include portions of southwestern Québec where corn production has increased exponentially. Since the mid‐1960s, average temperatures have increased by 1–2.4°C throughout the geographic range of geese, which may have contributed to the northward shift in wintering range and an earlier migration in spring. Access to spilled corn in spring improved fat reserves upon departure for the Arctic and may have contributed to a high fecundity. The population increase has led to intense grazing of natural wetlands used by geese although these habitats are still largely undamaged. The foraging in fields allowed the population to exceed limits imposed by natural marshes in winter and spring, but also prevented permanent damage because of their overgrazing.     

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non‐breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species’ distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land‐use. The effects of global change on the non‐breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri‐urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri‐urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri‐urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non‐breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non‐breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non‐breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near‐term non‐breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change.     

Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution

Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty‐six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate‐change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human‐modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species’ potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.     

Continent‐scale global change attribution in European birds ‐ combining annual and decadal time scales

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes‐based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long‐term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land‐use change, including long‐term increases in populations of hot‐dwelling species and declines in long‐distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long‐term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high‐resolution time series are available in large‐scale biodiversity surveys.     

Connecting seas: western Palaearctic continental flyway for water birds in the perspective of changing land use and climate

The western Palaearctic continental flyway that connects the tundra and taiga belts of Russia with north‐west Europe is the major migratory avenue for an estimated 9.3 million herbivorous water birds (swans, geese and ducks). Agricultural practices together with protection measures subsidize the carrying capacity of winter habitats of the birds. Densities of these birds are highest in the Netherlands, where nitrogen (N) inputs to farmland have increased during the last 70 years and became the highest in Europe (>250 kg manure and fertilizer ha^?1 yr^?1). A comparison of population trends of 13 species of avian herbivores reveals generally expanding populations in the past 50 years, with the greatest increases from 1970 to 1990. Populations of the smallest avian herbivores, such as ducks, are either stable or have peaked and are now in decline, whereas numbers of larger herbivores (geese and swans) continue to increase and barnacle and greylag geese now breed in the Netherlands, in addition to northern sites. During the northerly spring migration, stop‐over sites, mostly in the agricultural regions of eastern Europe and Scandinavia, lie between the 3 and 6°C mean daily temperature isotherms in April, temperatures at which grasses start to grow, where flooding of riparian wetlands frequently occurs and fertilizers are applied to farmland. However, the restructuring of agricultural practices in an enlarged EU is likely to affect water bird populations and their migration routes. The reduced use of N in the Netherlands is predicted to constrain population growth, especially of the smallest avian herbivores with their high basal metabolic rates, because of the declining food quality of grass leaves. The introduction of large‐scale farming of oilseed rape, winter cereals, sugar beet and potatoes at the expense of grassland also will adversely affect these birds, whereas larger species are likely to continue exploiting these crops.     

土地利用变化对鸟类栖息地连通性的影响——以鄂州市为例

土地利用变化是造成栖息地破碎、缺失与退化的重要原因。生态网络能保护重要栖息地,促进栖息地之间的物质与能量流动,对区域土地利用规划和生物多样性保护具有重要意义。以鄂州市为研究区,基于CLUE-S模型预测现状延续、生态保护和城市扩张3种土地利用情景,将生境质量作为遴选生境斑块的依据之一,以鸟类最大迁徙距离为阈值构建生态网络,从连通概率指数PC和斑块重要性指数dPC两方面,探讨土地利用变化对鸟类栖息地连通性的影响。结果表明：(1)不同情景的地类数量和空间结构均有差异,与生态保护相比,城市扩张情景的建设用地增加11603.52 hm~2,林地、耕地和水体减少5041.8 hm~2、2540.16 hm~2、3385.8 hm~2,新城区、山地风景区与水体周边是主要变化区域;(2)现状延续和城市扩张情景的生境斑块降至235块和216块,网络出现破碎化,生态保护情景增至367块,网络结构完整但空间位置改变;(3)2004—2024年PC表现为先上升后下降再上升的趋势,生态保护的PC高于现状延续和城市扩张,且利于保护短距离迁徙鸟类;(4)生态保护情景边缘型和关键小型斑块得到保护,第一等级斑块增加,城...     

Does migration promote or restrict circumpolar breeding ranges of arctic birds?

Aim Migration has been suggested to promote large breeding ranges among birds because of the greater mobility of migratory compared with non‐migratory species, but migration has also been suggested to restrict breeding ranges because of evolutionary constraints imposed by the genetically based migration control programme. We aim to investigate the association between migration and the breeding ranges of both land birds and pelagic birds breeding in the Arctic region. Location The Arctic region. Methods Information on breeding and wintering ranges and migratory status of bird species breeding in the arctic tundra biome was compiled from the literature. The association between breeding range, migration distance and primary winter habitat was tested using multivariate generalized linear models and pair‐wise Mann–Whitney U‐tests. Phylogenetic effects were tested for using Mantel’s permutation tests. Results We found different relationships depending on the species’ major winter habitat. Among birds that are pelagic during winter, long‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges, while among terrestrial birds, residents and short‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges. Breeding ranges of coastal birds of all migratory distance classes are comparatively restricted. Main conclusions As a new explanation for this pattern we suggest that the possibility of colonizing large winter ranges is a key factor for the subsequent expansion of breeding ranges in arctic bird communities and possibly also in bird communities of other regions of the world. Because of the reversal in the relative extent of continents and oceans between the hemispheres, longitudinally wide winter ranges are more likely for long‐distance than short‐distance migrants among pelagic birds, while the reverse holds true for birds that use terrestrial winter habitats. For coastal birds both continents and oceans form barriers restricting colonization of extensive winter quarters and consequently also of extensive breeding ranges, regardless of the distance to the winter quarters.     

Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population

To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions.     

Haematozoan Parasites and Migratory Behaviour in Waterfowl

Although it has been suggested that migratory species are exposed to a more diverse parasite community than sedentary species, this has not previously been demonstrated. To test this hypothesis, we analysed the diversity and prevalence of infections by haematozoan parasites reported in anseriform species (ducks, geese and swans) in relation to host migration patterns. Whilst controlling for research effort, the number of parasite species or genera reported per host was positively related to migration distance, but not to breeding latitude or size of the breeding or total annual range. In species undergoing longer distance migrations, a higher proportion of individuals were infected by haematozoa. Thus, there is indeed evidence that migratory birds are more susceptible or are exposed to a more diverse parasite fauna and higher risk of infection. This may help to explain why migratory species tend to have more exaggerated, sexually selected traits as well as larger immune system organs. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Inferring geographic origin, population structure and migration routes of a wintering population of Mediterranean gulls from resightings data

Winter congregations of migratory birds are made by individuals of different origins and generally assumed to be variable across space and time, but the demographic characteristics of these temporal populations are poorly known. We used 2,216 observations of 472 colour-ringed individuals to estimate the annual local survival of Mediterranean gulls Larus melanocephalus wintering in NE Spain. In addition, by gathering the ringing information on the 19,856 individuals marked as fledglings in 18 countries between 1990 and 2009, we were able to infer the composition of population in relation to the country of origin. We coupled these estimates with geographic information to contrast hypotheses on the migratory pattern most likely used by the gulls in their first migration from their natal colonies to the wintering area. The probability of reaching the study area was negatively associated with the distance from the natal colony. Data were consistent with a migratory strategy that combines fluvial and coastal routes in an optimal way, seeking minimal distance along favourable terrain. We found that, after the first year, annual local survival at the wintering site (0.81 on average) was comparable with the one estimated at the breeding colonies, indicating a high individual fidelity to the areas used in winter. Our work shows that winter groupings may behave as real populations, shaped by breeding output and survival, and that the geographic origin of wintering birds can be explained by a simple model. The study of winter congregations can help understand a species’ population structure and movement strategies.     

Effects of Local and Landscape Variables on Wetland Bird Habitat Use During Migration Through the Rainwater Basin

ABSTRACT Staging areas and migratory stopovers of wetland birds can function as geographic bottlenecks; common dependence among migratory wetland bird species on these sites has major implications for wetland conservation. Although 90% of playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) region of Nebraska, USA, have been destroyed, the area still provides essential stopover habitat for up to 10 million waterfowl each spring. Our objectives were to determine local (within wetland and immediate watershed) and landscape-scale factors influencing wetland bird abundance and species richness during spring migration at RWB playas. We surveyed 36–40 playas twice weekly in the RWB and observed approximately 1.6 million individual migratory wetland birds representing 72 species during spring migrations 2002–2004. We tested a priori hypotheses about whether local and landscape variables influenced overall species richness and abundance of geese, dabbling ducks, diving ducks, and shorebirds. Wetland area had a positive influence on goose abundance in all years, whereas percent emergent vegetation and hunting pressure had negative influences. Models predicting dabbling duck abundance differed among years; however, individual wetland area and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km of the study wetland consistently had a positive influence on dabbling duck abundance. Percent emergent vegetation also was a positive predictor of dabbling duck abundance in all years, indicating that wetlands with intermediate (50%) vegetation coverage have the greatest dabbling duck abundance. Shorebird abundance was positively influenced by wetland area and number of wetlands within 10 km and negatively influenced by water depth. Wetland area, water depth, and area of wetlands within 10 km were all equally important in models predicting overall species richness. Total species richness was positively influenced by wetland area and negatively influenced by water depth and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km. Avian species richness also was greatest in wetlands with intermediate vegetation coverage. Restoring playa hydrology should promote intermediate percent cover of emergent vegetation, which will increase use by dabbling ducks and shorebirds, and decrease snow goose (Chen caerulescens) use of these wetlands. We observed a reduction in dabbling duck abundance on wetlands open to spring snow goose hunting and recommend further investigation of the effects of this conservation order on nontarget species. Our results indicate that wildlife managers at migration stopover areas should conserve wetlands in complexes to meet the continuing and future habitat requirements of migratory birds, especially dabbling ducks, during spring migration.     

Farmland as stopover habitat for migrating birds – effects of organic farming and landscape structure

Agricultural intensification in Europe has affected farmland bird populations negatively, both during summer and winter. Although the migratory period poses separate challenges on birds than breeding and wintering, the consequences of farming practices for birds during migration remain poorly investigated. We monitored abundance and species richness of migratory birds in autumn at matched pairs of organic and conventional farms situated either in intensively farmed open plains (homogeneous landscapes) or in small‐scale farming landscapes (heterogeneous landscapes) in southern Sweden. Total bird density did not differ between landscape types but was marginally higher on organic compared to conventional farms. When including taxonomic status in the model (passerines vs non‐passerines), we found significantly more birds on organic farms, and more non‐passerines in the homogeneous landscapes. The effect of farming practice and landscape type on density differed between functional groups. Omnivore density was higher in the homogeneous landscapes, and invertebrate feeders were marginally more abundant on organic farms. The effects of farming practice on the overall species richness and on the density of granivorous birds were landscape dependent. In the homogeneous landscapes, organic farms held a higher number of species and density of granivorous birds than conventional farms, but there was no such difference in the heterogeneous landscapes. Thus, organic farming can enhance abundance and species richness of farmland birds during migration, but the effect differs between landscape types and species. The effectiveness of organic farming was highest in the homogeneous landscape making it important to promote organic farming there. However, for some species during migration, increased heterogeneity in homogeneous landscapes may have negative effects. We propose that migratory bird diversity in homogeneous landscapes may be best preserved by keeping the landscape open, but that a reduced agricultural intensity, such as organic farming, should be encouraged.     

Seasonal variation in nutritional characteristics of the diet of greater white-fronted geese

We studied diet and habitat use of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) from autumn through spring on their primary staging and wintering areas in the Pacific Flyway, 1979–1982. There have been few previous studies of resource use and forage quality of wintering greater white-fronted geese in North America, and as a consequence there has been little empirical support for management practices pertaining to habitat conservation of this broadly distributed species. Observations of >2,500 flocks of geese and collections of foraging birds revealed seasonal and geographic variation in resource use reflective of changes in habitat availability, selection, and fluctuating physiological demands. Autumn migrants from Alaska arrived first in the Klamath Basin of California and southern Oregon, where they fed on barley, oats, wheat, and potatoes. Geese migrated from the Klamath Basin into the Central Valley of California in late autumn where they exploited agricultural crops rich in soluble carbohydrates, with geese in the Sacramento Valley feeding almost exclusively on rice and birds on the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta primarily utilizing corn. White-fronted geese began their northward migration in late winter, and by early spring most had returned to the Klamath Basin where 37% of flocks were found in fields of new growth cultivated and wild grasses. Cereal grains and potatoes ingested by geese were low in protein (7–14%) and high in soluble nutrients (17–47% neutral detergent fiber [NDF]), whereas grasses were low in available energy (47–49% NDF) but high in protein (26–42%). Greater white-fronted geese are generalist herbivores and can exploit a variety of carbohydrate-rich cultivated crops, likely making these geese less susceptible to winter food shortages than prior to the agriculturalization of the North American landscape. However, agricultural landscapes can be extremely dynamic and may be less predictable in the long-term than the historic environments to which geese are adapted. Thus far greater white-fronted geese have proved resilient to changes in land cover in the Pacific Flyway and by altering their migration regime have even been able to adapt to changes in the availability of suitable forage crops. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

Increased rice flooding during winter explains the recent increase in the Pacific Flyway White‐fronted Goose Anser albifrons frontalis population in North America

Despite declines in numerous migratory bird populations due to global climate and landscape changes, the Pacific Flyway population of Greater White‐fronted Geese Anser albifrons frontalis in North America has flourished over recent decades. However, the demographic foundations of the population increase remain unclear, largely due to sparse data. In this study, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) to maximize information from multiple data sources including coordinated population survey, ring‐recovery and hunter‐harvested goose tail data. We estimated demographic parameters and assessed the role of several possible drivers of the observed population increase, including density‐dependent processes, agricultural land use change and climate conditions in both the wintering and the breeding season, while also accounting for the impacts of harvest. Non‐harvest survival of all geese was 0.83 (95% credible interval (CRI): 0.70–0.96) before legislation restricted post‐harvest rice field burning, and 0.98 (95% CRI: 0.94–1.0) afterwards. We detected a negative effect of density‐dependent processes and a positive effect of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on non‐harvest survival with high certainty. Kill rates were 0.11 (95% CRI: 0.09–0.12) for adults (after hatch year) and 0.26 (95% CRI 0.21–0.31) for juveniles (hatch year), resulting in annual survival rates of 0.81 (95% CRI: 0.69–0.89) for adults and 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.56–0.76) for juveniles. The ratio of juvenile birds to adults in the population was on average 0.36 (95% CRI: 0.29–0.45) and was driven by negative density‐dependent processes with high certainty. Our results suggest that the ban on rice field burning and subsequent high frequency of flooding as an alternative rice decomposition practice was the primary driver of the Pacific white‐fronted Goose population increase. The effects of climate change and density dependence were not strong enough to suppress the benefit of flooded rice. Given sparse demographic data for Pacific white‐fronted Geese, we were only able to uncover drivers of demography using IPMs. We encourage practitioners with sparse data similarly to consider forming IPMs to determine the drivers and mechanisms for population change and to prioritize future data collection.     

Carry‐over effects of winter habitat quality on en route timing and condition of a migratory passerine during spring migration

We examined how conditions prior to migration influenced migration performance of two breeding populations of black‐and‐white warblers Mniotilta varia by linking information on the migrant's winter habitat quality, measured via stable carbon isotopes, with information on their breeding destination, measured via stable hydrogen isotopes. The quality of winter habitat strongly influenced the timing of migration when we accounted for differential timing of migration between breeding populations. Among birds migrating to the same breeding destination, males and females arriving early to the stopover site originated from more mesic habitat than later arriving birds, suggesting that the benefits of occupying high‐quality mesic habitat during the winter positively influence the timing of migration. However, male warblers arriving early to the stopover site were not in better migratory condition than later arriving conspecifics that originated from poor‐quality xeric winter habitat, regardless of breeding destination. The two breeding populations stopover at the study site during different time periods, suggesting that the lower migratory condition of early birds is not a function of the time of season, but potentially a migrant's migration strategy. Strong selection pressures to arrive early on the breeding grounds to secure high‐quality breeding territories may drive males from high‐quality winter habitat to minimize time at the expense of energy. This migration strategy would result in a smaller margin of safety to buffer the effects of adverse weather or scarcity of food, increasing the risk of mortality. The migratory condition of females was the same regardless of the timing of migration or breeding destination, suggesting that females adopt a strategy that conserves energy during migration. This study fills an important gap in our understanding of the linkages between winter habitat quality and factors that influence the performance of migration, the phase of the annual cycle thought to be limiting most migratory bird populations.     

The effect of land type diversity and spatial heterogeneity on farmland birds in Norway

The decline in farmland birds observed throughout Europe during recent decades has attracted much attention. Agricultural intensification or land abandonment are commonly forwarded as key drivers. Several countries have established agri-environmental schemes (AES) to counter these negative trends among farmland birds. This paper reports a study of the relationship between land use and bird species in the agricultural landscape of Norway. The main objective was to investigate the effect of spatial heterogeneity and diversity of land use on total richness and abundance of farmland birds at a national level.Monitoring the distribution and abundance of birds is part of the Norwegian monitoring programme for agricultural landscapes. The monitoring programme is based on mapping of 1 × 1 km squares distributed across the entire agricultural landscape. Within these squares permanent observation points are established for bird monitoring. Detailed interpretation of aerial photographs provides the land classification. We tested the relationship between landscape metrics at different levels of land type detail and species richness and abundance of farmland and non-farmland birds.There was a positive relationship between species richness and abundance of farmland birds and agricultural area. For non-farmland birds the relationship was negative. Spatial heterogeneity of land use was a significant positive factor for both farmland and non-farmland species. High land type diversity was positive for farmland bird richness, but negative for abundance. Non-farmland bird richness was not affected by land type diversity, but abundance had a negative response.The results presented in this paper highlight the importance of a spatial heterogeneous landscape. However, we also found that land type diversity could negatively affect the abundance of both farmland and non-farmland birds. Our findings suggest a need for different management approaches depending on whether the aim is increased species richness or abundance. Achieving both aims with the same means might be difficult. We thus suggest a need for land use analyses before proper management strategies can be implemented.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Declining population trends of European mountain birds

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species’ distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south‐western (Iberia) and south‐central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (?7%) during 2002–2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant ?10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.