Occupancy patterns of the introduced,predatory sugar glider in Tasmanian forests

Introduced mammals pose serious threats to native island fauna, and understanding their distribution is fundamental to evaluating their conservation impact. Introduced sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) are the main predator of critically endangered swift parrots (Lathamus discolor) on mainland Tasmania. We surveyed sugar glider occurrence over ~800 km² in an important swift parrot breeding area, the Southern Forests. During 4–5 visits per site, we used call broadcast of predatory owls to elicit sugar glider alarm calls and surveyed 100 sites during February/March 2016. Naïve occupancy by sugar gliders was high (0.79), as was detectability (0.52 ± 0.03 SE), resulting in a cumulative detection probability of effectively 1. Occupancy modelling indicated a positive effect of the proportion of mature forest cover on occupancy. The best model, based on AIC scores, included the proportion of mature forest cover within a 500 m radius with constant detectability. Our study revealed surprisingly high rates of occupancy of available forest habitat throughout the heavily logged study area, such that even when mature forest cover was <10%, sugar glider occupancy was >0.5; where forest cover approached 100% (i.e. in the best quality breeding habitat for swift parrots), occupancy by sugar gliders approached 1. Our results reveal that sugar gliders are widespread across the study area which may be indicative of occupancy rates elsewhere in the breeding range of the critically endangered swift parrot. As a result, the risk of predation by sugar gliders for small birds may be widespread across logged Tasmanian forests. Additional work to identify whether population densities of sugar gliders vary with forest cover (and whether this may impact predation likelihood) is critical to understanding the conservation consequences of deforestation in the breeding range of the swift parrot.     

Responses of sympatric canids to human development revealed through citizen science

Measuring wildlife responses to anthropogenic activities often requires long‐term, large‐scale datasets that are difficult to collect. This is particularly true for rare or cryptic species, which includes many mammalian carnivores. Citizen science, in which members of the public participate in scientific work, can facilitate collection of large datasets while increasing public awareness of wildlife research and conservation. Hunters provide unique benefits for citizen science given their knowledge and interest in outdoor activities. We examined how anthropogenic changes to land cover impacted relative abundance of two sympatric canids, coyote (Canis latrans), and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) at a large spatial scale. In order to assess how land cover affected canids at this scale, we used citizen science data from bow hunter sighting logs collected throughout New York State, USA, during 2004–2017. We found that the two species had contrasting responses to development, with red foxes positively correlated and coyotes negatively correlated with the percentage of low‐density development. Red foxes also responded positively to agriculture, but less so when agricultural habitat was fragmented. Agriculture provides food and denning resources for red foxes, whereas coyotes may select forested areas for denning. Though coyotes and red foxes compete in areas of sympatry, we did not find a relationship between species abundance, likely a consequence of the coarse spatial resolution used. Red foxes may be able to coexist with coyotes by altering their diets and habitat use, or by maintaining territories in small areas between coyote territories. Our study shows the value of citizen science, and particularly hunters, in collection of long‐term data across large areas (i.e., the entire state of New York) that otherwise would unlikely be obtained.     

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer

Ongoing climate change and land‐use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant–herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land‐use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land‐use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land‐use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land‐use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land‐use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land‐use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.     

Evaluating citizen science data for forecasting species responses to national forest management

The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of many citizen science datasets (CSD) makes them appealing for use in species distribution modeling and forecasting. However, a frequent limitation is the inability to validate results. Here, we aim to assess the reliability of CSD for forecasting species occurrence in response to national forest management projections (representing 160,366 km²) by comparison against forecasts from a model based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data. We fitted species distribution models using citizen science observations of an old‐forest indicator fungus Phellinus ferrugineofuscus. We applied five modeling approaches (generalized linear model, Poisson process model, Bayesian occupancy model, and two MaxEnt models). Models were used to forecast changes in occurrence in response to national forest management for 2020‐2110. Forecasts of species occurrence from models based on CSD were congruent with forecasts made using the colonization–extinction model based on systematically collected data, although different modeling methods indicated different levels of change. All models projected increased occurrence in set‐aside forest from 2020 to 2110: the projected increase varied between 125% and 195% among models based on CSD, in comparison with an increase of 129% according to the colonization–extinction model. All but one model based on CSD projected a decline in production forest, which varied between 11% and 49%, compared to a decline of 41% using the colonization–extinction model. All models thus highlighted the importance of protected old forest for P. ferrugineofuscus persistence. We conclude that models based on CSD can reproduce forecasts from models based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data and so lead to the same forest management conclusions. Our results show that the use of a suite of models allows CSD to be reliably applied to land management and conservation decision making, demonstrating that widely available CSD can be a valuable forecasting resource.     

Twenty‐five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987–1996 and 2007–2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed‐savannah specialists increased where open‐savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

From forest to farmland: pollen‐inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach

Maps of continental‐scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time‐scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio‐ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan‐European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad‐leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan‐European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp . Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover‐climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.     

Diet and Geophagy Across a Western Amazonian Parrot Assemblage

We identified species‐ and community‐level dietary characteristics for a species‐rich Amazonian parrot assemblage to determine relationships among dietary metrics and use of geophagy sites. Previous studies suggest that soil is consumed at geophagy sites in this region mainly to supplement dietary sodium. We accumulated 1400 feeding records for 16 parrot species over 2 yr and found that seeds, flowers, and fruit pulp featured prominently in diets, while bark, insects, and lichen were consumed in small quantities. Food availability across 1819 trees was measured, and we found that flower availability was highest in the dry season and fruit production peaked in the wet season, but that phenology patterns of the 20 most commonly foraged plant species suggest no serious food bottlenecks. Partitioning of available food resources among the 13 most commonly encountered parrots is suggested by an ordination analysis (DCA), which placed the large macaws (Ara) with the Amazona parrots at the ‘primary forest’ end of a dietary resource axis and four smaller species at the ‘successional forest’ end of the axis. Parrot species associated with successional forest also consumed less plant species overall. Furthermore, these parrot species consuming successional forest resources had higher claylick visitation rates than those consuming primary forest resources suggesting they derive the greatest benefits from soil consumption.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow in a rare New Zealand skink despite fragmented habitat in a volcanic landscape

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation often restricts gene flow and results in small populations that are at risk of inbreeding. However, some endangered species naturally occupy patchy habitat where local population extinction and recolonization are normal. We investigated population fragmentation in the range‐restricted New Zealand small‐scaled skink (Oligosoma microlepis), documenting changes in habitat occupancy and analyzing mitochondrial, microsatellite, and morphological variation sampled across the geographical range of the species (approximately 100 km²). Small‐scaled skinks have a strong preference for rocky outcrops that exist in a mosaic of other habitat types. A metapopulation structure was indicated by both local extinction and colonization of new sites. We found relatively high mtDNA nucleotide site diversity within this narrow range (π = 0.004; 16S), evidence of inter‐patch gene flow, and no statistical support for inbreeding. Gene flow was limited by geographical distance, although the existence of pasture between habitat patches apparently has not prevented skink dispersal. Generalized linear models indicated an association between body size and location suggesting a local environmental influence on phenotype. Prior to human‐induced habitat modification, native forest probably separated preferred sites and, less than 2000 years ago, volcanic activity devastated much of the area currently occupied by O. microlepis. This skink appears able to re‐establish populations if other human‐linked factors such as agricultural intensification and introduced predators are limited. Although in contrast to expectations for a scarce and localized species living in a highly modified landscape, this lizard may have previously adapted to a dynamic, mosaic environment mediated by volcanism.     

Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation

The interactions between climate and land‐use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001–2014. For the analyses we created annual land‐cover/land‐use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km², and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive—forest gain, negative—forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000–1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid‐elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land‐use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.     

Evolutionary response to global change: Climate and land use interact to shape color polymorphism in a woodland salamander

Evolutionary change has been demonstrated to occur rapidly in human‐modified systems, yet understanding how multiple components of global change interact to affect adaptive evolution remains a critical knowledge gap. Climate change is predicted to impose directional selection on traits to reduce thermal stress, but the strength of directional selection may be mediated by changes in the thermal environment driven by land use. We examined how regional climatic conditions and land use interact to affect genetically based color polymorphism in the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus). P. cinereus is a woodland salamander with two primary discrete color morphs (striped, unstriped) that have been associated with macroclimatic conditions. Striped individuals are most common in colder regions, but morph frequencies can be variable within climate zones. We used path analysis to analyze morph frequencies among 238,591 individual salamanders across 1,170 sites in North America. Frequency of striped individuals was positively related to forest cover in populations occurring in warmer regions (>7°C annually), a relationship that was weak to nonexistent in populations located in colder regions (≤7°C annually). Our results suggest that directional selection imposed by climate warming at a regional scale may be amplified by forest loss and suppressed by forest persistence, with a mediating effect of land use that varies geographically. Our work highlights how the complex interaction of selection pressures imposed by different components of global change may lead to divergent evolutionary trajectories among populations.     

Multi‐scale effects of habitat structure and landscape context on a vertebrate with limited dispersal ability (the brown‐throated sloth,Bradypus variegatus)

As human population, food consumption, and demand for forest products continue to rise over the next century, the pressures of land‐use change on biodiversity are projected to intensify. In tropical regions, countryside habitats that retain abundant tree cover and structurally complex canopies may complement protected areas by providing suitable habitats and landscape connectivity for a significant portion of the native biota. Species with low dispersal capabilities are among the most at risk of extinction as a consequence of land‐use change. We assessed how the spatial distribution of the brown‐throated sloth (Bradypus variegatus), a model species for a vertebrate with limited dispersal ability, is shaped by differences in habitat structure and landscape patterns of countryside habitats in north‐central Costa Rica using a multi‐scale framework. We quantified the influence of local habitat characteristics and landscape context on sloth occurrence using mixed‐effects logistic regression models. We recorded 27 sloths within countryside habitats and found that both local and landscape factors significantly influenced their spatial distribution. Locally, sloths favored structurally complex habitats, with greater canopy cover and variation in tree height and basal area. At the landscape scale, sloths demonstrated a preference for habitats with high proportions of forest and nearby large tracts of forest. Although mixed‐use areas and tree plantations are not substitutes for protected forests, our results suggest they provide important supplemental habitats for sloths. To promote the conservation and long‐term viability of sloth populations in the tropical countryside, we recommend that land managers retain structurally complex vegetation and large patches of native habitat.     

Genetic evidence for landscape effects on dispersal in the army ant Eciton burchellii

Inhibited dispersal, leading to reduced gene flow, threatens populations with inbreeding depression and local extinction. Fragmentation may be especially detrimental to social insects because inhibited gene flow has important consequences for cooperation and competition within and among colonies. Army ants have winged males and permanently wingless queens; these traits imply male‐biased dispersal. However, army ant colonies are obligately nomadic and have the potential to traverse landscapes. Eciton burchellii, the most regularly nomadic army ant, is a forest interior species: colony raiding activities are limited in the absence of forest cover. To examine whether nomadism and landscape (forest clearing and elevation) affect population genetic structure in a montane E. burchellii population, we reconstructed queen and male genotypes from 25 colonies at seven polymorphic microsatellite loci. Pairwise genetic distances among individuals were compared to pairwise geographical and resistance distances using regressions with permutations, partial Mantel tests and random forests analyses. Although there was no significant spatial genetic structure in queens or males in montane forest, dispersal may be male‐biased. We found significant isolation by landscape resistance for queens based on land cover (forest clearing), but not on elevation. Summed colony emigrations over the lifetime of the queen may contribute to gene flow in this species and forest clearing impedes these movements and subsequent gene dispersal. Further forest cover removal may increasingly inhibit Eciton burchellii colony dispersal. We recommend maintaining habitat connectivity in tropical forests to promote population persistence for this keystone species.     

Remotely sensed forest understory density and nest predator occurrence interact to predict suitable breeding habitat and the occurrence of a resident boreal bird species

Habitat suitability models (HSM) based on remotely sensed data are useful tools in conservation work. However, they typically use species occurrence data rather than robust demographic variables, and their predictive power is rarely evaluated. These shortcomings can result in misleading guidance for conservation. Here, we develop and evaluate a HSM based on correlates of long‐term breeding success of an open nest building boreal forest bird, the Siberian jay. In our study site in northern Sweden, nest failure of this permanent resident species is driven mainly by visually hunting corvids that are associated with human settlements. Parents rely on understory nesting cover as protection against these predators. Accordingly, our HSM includes a light detection and ranging (LiDAR) based metric of understory density around the nest and the distance of the nest to the closest human settlement to predict breeding success. It reveals that a high understory density 15–80 m around nests is associated with increased breeding success in territories close to settlements (<1.5 km). Farther away from human settlements breeding success is highest at nest sites with a more open understory providing a favorable warmer microclimate. We validated this HSM by comparing the predicted breeding success with landscape‐wide census data on Siberian jay occurrence. The correlation between breeding success and occurrence was strong up to 40 km around the study site. However, the HSM appears to overestimate breeding success in regions with a milder climate and therefore higher corvid numbers. Our findings suggest that maintaining patches of small diameter trees may provide a cost‐effective way to restore the breeding habitat for Siberian jays up to 1.5 km from human settlements. This distance is expected to increase in the warmer, southern, and coastal range of the Siberian jay where the presence of other corvids is to a lesser extent restricted to settlements.     

Climate–human interactions contributed to historical forest recruitment dynamics in Mediterranean subalpine ecosystems

Long‐term tree recruitment dynamics of subalpine forests mainly depend on temperature changes, but little is known about the feedbacks between historical land use and climate. Here, we analyze a southern European, millennium‐long dataset of tree recruitment from three high‐elevation pine forests located in Mediterranean mountains (Pyrenees, northeastern Spain; Pollino, southern Italy; and Mt. Smolikas, northern Greece). We identify synchronized recruitment peaks in the late 15th and early 16th centuries, following prolonged periods of societal and climate instability. Major European population crises in the 14th and 15th centuries associated with recurrent famines, the Black Death pandemic, and political turmoil are likely to have reduced the deforestation of subalpine environments and caused widespread rewilding. We suggest that a distinct cold phase in the Little Ice Age around 1450 ce could also have accelerated the cessation of grazing pressure, particularly in the Pyrenees, where the demographic crisis was less severe. Most pronounced in the Pyrenees, the enhanced pine recruitment from around 1500–1550 ce coincides with temporarily warmer temperatures associated with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We diagnose that a mixture of human and climate factors has influenced past forest recruitment dynamics in Mediterranean subalpine ecosystems. Our results highlight how complex human–climate interactions shaped forest dynamics during pre‐industrial times and provide historical analogies to recent rewilding.     

Natural climate solutions versus bioenergy: Can carbon benefits of natural succession compete with bioenergy from short rotation coppice?

Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time.     

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model–data fusion

The response of forest productivity to climate extremes strongly depends on ambient environmental and site conditions. To better understand these relationships at a regional scale, we used nearly 800 observation years from 271 permanent long‐term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland, obtained between 1980 and 2017. We assimilated these data into the 3‐PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960–2018, and tested for productivity shifts in response to climate along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Simulated net primary productivity (NPP) decreased with elevation (2.86 ± 0.006 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for P. abies and 0.93 ± 0.010 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for F. sylvatica). During warm–dry extremes, simulated NPP for both species increased at higher and decreased at lower elevations, with reductions in NPP of more than 25% for up to 21% of the potential species distribution range in Switzerland. Reduced plant water availability had a stronger effect on NPP than temperature during warm‐dry extremes. Importantly, cold–dry extremes had negative impacts on regional forest NPP comparable to warm–dry extremes. Overall, our calibrated model suggests that the response of forest productivity to climate extremes is more complex than simple shift toward higher elevation. Such robust estimates of NPP are key for increasing our understanding of forests ecosystems carbon dynamics under climate extremes.     

Multi‐season occupancy models identify biotic and abiotic factors influencing a recovering Arctic Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus tundrius population

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low‐quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi‐season models that account for imperfect detection and a long‐term (1981–2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest‐sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest‐sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest‐sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest‐sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long‐term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.     

Landscape characteristics of non‐native pine plantations and invasions in Southern Chile

The spread of non‐native conifers into areas naturally dominated by other vegetation types is a growing problem in South America. This process results in a landscape transformation as the conifers suppress native vegetation leading to reduced biodiversity, lower water availability and altered nutrient dynamics. Previous research highlights the broad spatial extents of land cover change in parts of Chile. However, in Southern Chile, the extent of plantations and the landscape characteristics associated with plantations and ongoing pine invasions are poorly understood. Here, we characterised non‐native pine land cover within one Landsat scene (World Reference System 2 Path 232/Row 92; ~34 000 km²) in Southern Chile. We created training data based on historical high‐resolution imagery, derived land cover predictors from time series of Landsat observations and used a Random Forest classifier to map the distribution of non‐native pines. The overall classification accuracy was 88%, and the accuracy of the non‐native pine class exceeded 90%. Although 71% of non‐native pine patches were within 500 m of other non‐native pine patches, isolated non‐native pine patches were found to occur up to 55 km from the nearest neighbour. These distant plantations could exacerbate invasion risk by creating propagule sources for novel invasion fronts. In relation to landscape characteristics, non‐native pines were found to be more likely to occur in low slope and mid‐elevation areas. Because most of the study area is native forest, most non‐native pine patches border native forest. However, non‐native pine patches were almost three times more likely than random patches to border grass/agriculture. This suggests that grasslands and disturbed sites, which have low resistance to non‐native pine invasion, are disproportionately exposed to pine propagules. Our results indicate that non‐native pine plantations are extensive across Southern Chile, and well poised to cause future invasion.