Projected impacts of climate change on spatio‐temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity: a deconstructing approach

Aim To assess the potential impacts of future climate change on spatio‐temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity. Location Adour–Garonne River Basin (France). Methods We first applied an ensemble modelling approach to project annually the future distribution of 18 fish species for the 2010–2100 period on 50 sites. We then explored the spatial and temporal patterns of beta diversity by distinguishing between its two additive components, namely species turnover and nestedness. Results Taxonomic homogenization of fish assemblages was projected to increase linearly over the 21st century, especially in the downstream parts of the river gradient. This homogenization process was almost entirely caused by a decrease in spatial species turnover. When considering the temporal dimension of beta diversity, our results reveal an overall pattern of decreasing beta diversity along the upstream–downstream river gradient. In contrast, when considering the turnover and nestedness components of temporal beta diversity we found significant U‐shaped and hump‐shaped relationships, respectively. Main conclusions Future climate change is projected to modify the taxonomic composition of freshwater fish assemblages by increasing their overall similarity over the Adour–Garonne River Basin. Our findings suggest that the distinction between the nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity is not only crucial for understanding the processes shaping spatial beta‐diversity patterns but also for identifying localities where the rates of species replacement are projected to be greatest. Specifically we recommend that future conservation studies should not only consider the spatial component of beta diversity but also its dynamic caused by climate warming.     

Climate change impacts on structure and diversity of fish communities in rivers

It is widely accepted that climate change constrains biota. Yet, because of the lack of consistent multisite and multitaxon surveys, few studies have addressed general rules about how climate change impacts on structure and diversity of animal communities. Especially, the relative influence of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances on this impact is fairly unknown. Here, we present for the first time a meta-analysis assessing the effect of global warming on stream organisms. Fish communities of large rivers in France undergoing various anthropogenic pressures showed significant increase in proportions of warm-water species and of specific richness during the last 15–25 years. Conversely, the equitability decreased, indicating a gradual decrease of the number of dominant species. Finally, the total abundance increased, coupled with rejuvenation and changes in size-structure of the communities. Interestingly, most of these effects were not depressed by the strength of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances. Conversely, geographical location of communities and especially closeness of natural barriers to migration could influence their response to climate change. Indeed, increase in the proportion of southern species seemed hindered at sites located close to the southern limit of the European species' geographical ranges. This work provides new evidence that climate change have deep impacts on communities which, by overtaking the effects of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances, could be more substantial than previously thought. Overall, our results stress the importance of considering climate change impacts in studies addressing community dynamics, even in disturbed sites.     

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non‐native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.     

Presence and absence of non‐native fish species in the Wet Tropics region,Australia

Distributional records of non‐native fish species were identified in the Wet Tropics region, Far North Queensland, Australia, through a compilation of published records and expert knowledge. A total of 1106 records were identified comprising 346 presence and four uncertain records for at least 13 species, and 756 absence records. All current presence records consist of six species from the families Cichlidae and Poeciliidae with established self‐sustaining populations in the region, probably affecting the highly diverse native fish fauna.     

The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes

Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long‐term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast‐flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.     

Pockets of resistance: Response of arid‐land fish communities to climate,hydrology, and wildfire

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长山列岛邻近海域鱼类群落种类组成和多样性时空变化

为了解黄、渤海生态系统交错带长山列岛邻近水域鱼类群落种类组成和多样性,根据2016年10月,2017年1月、5月及8月进行的鱼类资源底拖网调查数据,应用相对重要性指数、物种多样性指数、k优势度曲线等方法,研究了长山列岛邻近海域鱼类群落种类组成、物种多样性时空变化及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明: 该海域共计捕获鱼类77种,以温水性、底层、洄游性鱼类为主,优势种组成季节变化明显,春季、冬季主要优势种为黄鮟鱇,夏季以日本鲭、鳀等中上层鱼类为主。全年共计出现洄游性鱼类46种,季节间物种迁移指数均在100以上,其中秋季物种迁移指数最大。鱼类群落物种丰富度指数在春季最高、Shannon多样性指数和均匀度指数在秋季最高。夏季物种丰富度指数与表层水温呈显著负相关;冬季物种丰富度指数与水深、底层水温呈极显著正相关,Shannon多样性指数与底层水温呈极显著正相关。长山列岛邻近海域作为黄、渤海两大生态系统的交错带,鱼类群落表现出高物种多样性、洄游种多以及明显的时空异质性。     

Turning back the tide? Local-scale impacts of climate change may have positive effects by restoring natural riverine habitat and reducing invasive fish density

1. Global biodiversity is increasingly threatened by habitat loss, climate change, and biological invasion. However, predictions of impacts on native fauna are hampered by an inadequate knowledge of how these factors interact and how climate change will affect the distribution, abundance, and behaviour of both native and invasive species, not least as most predictions are based on the long-term effects of temperature alone.
2. Here, we present a case study illustrating how local-scale climate change impacts (increased temperature, reduced rainfall, shifts in peak rainfall) affected the hydrology of a channelised lowland European river (reduced flow, reduction in flood events, increased siltation, macrophyte growth), allowing native fish species to recolonise the bankside zone and reducing the density of invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus by removing its preferred habitat.
3. While most studies predict long-term negative impacts on global fish populations, some suggest potential direct and indirect benefits at a local scale. We are of the opinion that, at a local scale, climate change impacts on fish will be more nuanced and complex than long-term predictions suggest, resulting in both positive and negative effects, with consolation prizes in the face of larger losses. While impacts on fish will differ between regions and/or continents, depending on the specific impacts of climate change, identification of positive effects will be essential in clarifying long-range forecasts and identifying management procedures for mitigating overall negative impacts.

     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Processes at multiple scales affect richness and similarity of non‐native plant species in mountains around the world

Aim To investigate how species richness and similarity of non‐native plants varies along gradients of elevation and human disturbance. Location Eight mountain regions on four continents and two oceanic islands. Methods We compared the distribution of non‐native plant species along roads in eight mountainous regions. Within each region, abundance of plant species was recorded at 41–84 sites along elevational gradients using 100‐m² plots located 0, 25 and 75 m from roadsides. We used mixed‐effects models to examine how local variation in species richness and similarity were affected by processes at three scales: among regions (global), along elevational gradients (regional) and with distance from the road (local). We used model selection and information criteria to choose best‐fit models of species richness along elevational gradients. We performed a hierarchical clustering of similarity to investigate human‐related factors and environmental filtering as potential drivers at the global scale. Results Species richness and similarity of non‐native plant species along elevational gradients were strongly influenced by factors operating at scales ranging from 100 m to 1000s of km. Non‐native species richness was highest in the New World regions, reflecting the effects of colonization from Europe. Similarity among regions was low and due mainly to certain Eurasian species, mostly native to temperate Europe, occurring in all New World regions. Elevation and distance from the road explained little of the variation in similarity. The elevational distribution of non‐native species richness varied, but was always greatest in the lower third of the range. In all regions, non‐native species richness declined away from roadsides. In three regions, this decline was steeper at higher elevations, and there was an interaction between distance and elevation. Main conclusions Because non‐native plant species are affected by processes operating at global, regional and local scales, a multi‐scale perspective is needed to understand their patterns of distribution. The processes involved include global dispersal, filtering along elevational gradients and differential establishment with distance from roadsides.     

Growth,condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change

Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south‐western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen‐balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013–15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently‐open, one seasonally‐closed and one normally‐closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter‐estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993–96 and 2013–15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally‐closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine “health.”     

Fine‐scale patterns of species and phylogenetic turnover in a global biodiversity hotspot: Implications for climate change vulnerability

Question: What is the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors for species compositional and phylogenetic turnover? Location: High‐rainfall zone of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods: Correlates of species compositional turnover were assessed using quadrat‐based floristic data, and establishing relationships with environmental and spatial factors using canonical correspondence analyses and Mantel tests. Between‐quadrat phylogenetic distance measures were computed and examined for correlations with environmental and spatial attributes. Processes structuring pa2t2terns of beta diversity were also evaluated within four broad floristic assemblages defined a priori. Results: Floristic diversity was strongly related to environmental attributes. A low significance of spatial variables on assemblage patterns suggested no evident effect of dispersal limitations. Species compositional turnover was especially high within the swamp and outcrop assemblage. Phylogenetic turnover was closely coupled to species compositional turnover, implying the occurrence of many locally endemic and phylogenetically relict taxa. Beta diversity patterns within assemblages were also significantly correlated with the local environment, and relevant correlates differed between floristic assemblage types. Conclusion: Phylogenetic diversity in the SWAFR high‐rainfall zone is clustered within edaphic microhabitats in a generally subdued landscape. A clustered rather than dispersed distribution of phylogenetic diversity increases the probability of significant plant diversity loss during periods of climate change. Climate change susceptibility of the region's flora is accordingly estimated to be high. We highlight the conservation significance of swamp and outcrops that are characterized by distinct hydrological properties and may provide refugial habitat for plant diversity during periods of moderate climate change.     

Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: Species profiling based on life‐history and environmental characteristics

Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio‐temporal distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life‐history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life history, and climatic niche, with climate‐change‐susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate‐change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.