Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.     

Factors influencing the survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids through multiple dam passages: an individual‐based approach

Substantial declines of Pacific salmon populations have occurred over the past several decades related to large‐scale anthropogenic and climatic changes in freshwater and marine environments. In the Columbia River Basin, migrating juvenile salmonids may pass as many as eight large‐scale hydropower projects before reaching the ocean; however, the cumulative effects of multiple dam passages are largely unknown. Using acoustic transmitters and an extensive system of hydrophone arrays in the Lower Columbia River, we calculated the survival of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) passing one, two, or three dams. We applied a unique index of biological characteristics and environmental exposures, experienced by each fish individually as it migrated downstream, in order to examine which factors most influence salmonid survival. High outflow volumes led to involuntary spill in 2011 and created an environment of supersaturated dissolved gas concentrations. In this environment, migrating smolt survival was strongly influenced by barometric pressure, fish velocity, and water temperature. The effect of these variables on survival was compounded by multiple dam passages compared to fish passing a single dam. Despite spatial isolation between dams in the Lower Columbia River hydrosystem, migrating smolt appear to experience cumulative effects akin to a press disturbance. In general, Chinook salmon and steelhead respond similarly in terms of survival rates and responses to altered environmental conditions. Management actions that limit dissolved gas concentrations in years of high flow will benefit migrating salmonids at this life stage.     

Main stem and off‐channel habitat use by juvenile Chinook salmon in a sub‐Arctic riverscape

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Watershed‐scale climate influences productivity of Chinook salmon populations across southcentral Alaska

The ecosystems supporting Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are changing rapidly as a result of climate change and habitat alteration. Understanding how—and how consistently—salmon populations respond to changes at regional and watershed scales has major implications for fisheries management and habitat conservation. Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) populations across Alaska have declined over the past decade, resulting in fisheries closures and prolonged impacts to local communities. These declines are associated with large‐scale climate drivers, but uncertainty remains about the role of local conditions (e.g., precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature) that vary among the watersheds where salmon spawn and rear. We estimated the effects of these and other environmental indicators on the productivity of 15 Chinook salmon populations in the Cook Inlet basin, southcentral Alaska, using a hierarchical Bayesian stock‐recruitment model. Salmon spawning during 2003–2007 produced 57% fewer recruits than the previous long‐term average, leading to declines in adult returns beginning in 2008. These declines were explained in part by density dependence, with reduced population productivity following years of high spawning abundance. Across all populations, productivity declined with increased precipitation during the fall spawning and early incubation period and increased with above‐average precipitation during juvenile rearing. Above‐average stream temperatures during spawning and rearing had variable effects, with negative relationships in many warmer streams and positive relationships in some colder streams. Productivity was also associated with regional indices of streamflow and ocean conditions, with high variability among populations. The cumulative effects of adverse conditions in freshwater, including high spawning abundance, heavy fall rains, and hot, dry summers may have contributed to the recent population declines across the region. Identifying both coherent and differential responses to environmental change underscores the importance of targeted, watershed‐specific monitoring and conservation efforts for maintaining resilient salmon runs in a warming world.     

Evidence for competitive dominance of Pink salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus gorbuscha</Emphasis>) over other Salmonids in the North Pacific Ocean

Relatively little is known about fish species interactions in offshore areas of the world’s oceans because adequate experimental controls are typically unavailable in such vast areas. However, pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are numerous and have an alternating-year pattern of abundance that provides a natural experimental control to test for interspecific competition in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. Since a number of studies have recently examined pink salmon interactions with other salmon, we reviewed them in an effort to describe patterns of interaction over broad regions of the ocean. Research consistently indicated that pink salmon significantly altered prey abundance of other salmon species (e.g., zooplankton, squid), leading to altered diet, reduced total prey consumption and growth, delayed maturation, and reduced survival, depending on species and locale. Reduced survival was observed in chum salmon (O. keta) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) originating from Puget Sound and in Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (O. nerka). Growth of pink salmon was not measurably affected by other salmon species, but their growth was sometimes inversely related to their own abundance. In all marine studies, pink salmon affected other species through exploitation of prey resources rather than interference. Interspecific competition was observed in nearshore and offshore waters of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, and one study documented competition between species originating from different continents. Climate change had variable effects on competition. In the North Pacific Ocean, competition was observed before and after the ocean regime shift in 1977 that significantly altered abundances of many marine species, whereas a study in the Pacific Northwest reported a shift from predation- to competition-based mortality in response to the 1982/1983 El Nino. Key traits of pink salmon that influenced competition with other salmonids included great abundance, high consumption rates and rapid growth, degree of diet overlap or consumption of lower trophic level prey, and early migration timing into the ocean. The consistent pattern of findings from multiple regions of the ocean provides evidence that interspecific competition can significantly influence salmon population dynamics and that pink salmon may be the dominant competitor among salmon in marine waters.     

Genetic differentiation of Alaska Chinook salmon: the missing link for migratory studies

Most information about Chinook salmon genetic diversity and life history originates from studies from the West Coast USA, western Canada and southeast Alaska; less is known about Chinook salmon from western and southcentral Alaska drainages. Populations in this large area are genetically distinct from populations to the south and represent an evolutionary legacy of unique genetic, phenotypic and life history diversity. More genetic information is necessary to advance mixed stock analysis applications for studies involving these populations. We assembled a comprehensive, open-access baseline of 45 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 172 populations ranging from Russia to California. We compare SNP data from representative populations throughout the range with particular emphasis on western and southcentral Alaska. We grouped populations into major lineages based upon genetic and geographic characteristics, evaluated the resolution for identifying the composition of admixtures and performed mixed stock analysis on Chinook salmon caught incidentally in the walleye pollock fishery in the Bering Sea. SNP data reveal complex genetic structure within Alaska and can be used in applications to address not only regional issues, but also migration pathways, bycatch studies on the high seas, and potential changes in the range of the species in response to climate change.     

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971–2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971–2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate‐induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.     

Characteristics of the spawning stock of chinook salmon <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis> from the Apuka River (northeastern Kamchatka)

Biological features of chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Apuka River, the largest river of the northeastern Kamchatka inflowing Olyutorskii Bay of the Bering Sea, are studied. Chinook salmon from the Apuka River spend mainly a year in the river before downstream migration to the sea. The fish live in the sea for 1–4 years. The spawning migration of chinook salmon into the Apuka River begins in late May just after ice melting, and it continues until early August. The main part of the spawners enters the river during June. A hypothesis on the occurrence of two seasonal races in the Apuka River is proposed.     

Carcass analogues provide marine subsidies for macroinvertebrates and juvenile Atlantic salmon in temperate oligotrophic streams

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Understanding the behavior and ecology of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) on an important feeding ground in the Gulf of Alaska

Population declines and demographic changes of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), have been documented throughout this species’ range, though information on natural and anthropogenic mechanisms related to these changes are not fully understood. To provide insights into marine behaviors and survival of Chinook salmon, 40 pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs), that collected environmental data, were attached to large (69–100 cm FL) Chinook salmon caught in the marine waters of Cook Inlet, Alaska. PSATs provided evidence of predation on tagged Chinook salmon by ectothermic and unconfirmed predators, and provided valuable information about the migratory characteristics and occupied depths and temperatures of this species while occupying Cook Inlet and the Gulf of Alaska. The results from this study suggest that late-marine mortality of Chinook salmon of a variety of stock-origins by apex predators is more common in Cook Inlet than previously thought, and may be used to improve our understanding this species’ population dynamics. Furthermore, results from this study adds to the existing knowledge of marine habitat use by Chinook Salmon and may be useful in assessing the vulnerability and interactions between this species and anthropogenic activities.

     

The influence of hydrology and waterway distance on population structure of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in a large river

Adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha navigate in river systems using olfactory cues that may be influenced by hydrologic factors such as flow and the number, size and spatial distribution of tributaries. Thus, river hydrology may influence both homing success and the level of straying (gene flow), which in turn influences population structure. In this study, two methods of multivariate analysis were used to examine the extent to which four indicators of hydrology and waterway distance explained population structure of O. tshawytscha in the Yukon River. A partial Mantel test showed that the indicators of hydrology were positively associated with broad‐scale (Yukon basin) population structure, when controlling for the influence of waterway distance. Multivariate multiple regression showed that waterway distance, supplemented with the number and flow of major drainage basins, explained more variation in broad‐scale population structure than any single indicator. At an intermediate spatial scale, indicators of hydrology did not appear to influence population structure after accounting for waterway distance. These results suggest that habitat changes in the Yukon River, which alter hydrology, may influence the basin‐wide pattern of population structure in O. tshawytscha. Further research is warranted on the role of hydrology in concert with waterway distance in influencing population structure in Pacific salmon.     

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: Salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.     

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three‐dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20‐year span at the end of the century (2080–2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg‐to‐fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate‐change‐related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.     

Juvenile sockeye salmon distribution, size, condition and diet during years with warm and cool spring sea temperatures along the eastern Bering Sea shelf

Interannual variations in distribution, size, indices of feeding and condition of juvenile Bristol Bay sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka collected in August to September (2000–2003) during Bering–Aleutian Salmon International Surveys were examined to test possible mechanisms influencing their early marine growth and survival. Juvenile sockeye salmon were mainly distributed within the southern region of the eastern Bering Sea, south of 57°0' N during 2000 and 2001 and farther offshore, south of 58°0' N during 2002 and 2003. In general, juvenile sockeye salmon were significantly larger ( P < 0·05) and had significantly higher indices of condition ( P < 0·05) during 2002 and 2003 than during 2000 and 2001. The feeding index was generally higher for age 1.0 year sockeye salmon than age 2.0 year during all years. Among-year comparisons suggested that Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus were important components of the juvenile sockeye salmon diet during 2000 and 2001 (20 to 50% of the mean wet mass) and age 0 year walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma were important components during 2002 and 2003 (50 to 60% of the mean wet mass). Warmer sea temperatures during spring and summer of 2002 and 2003 probably increased productivity on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, enhancing juvenile sockeye salmon growth.     

Linking marine and freshwater growth in western Alaska Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

The hypothesis that growth in Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. is dependent on previous growth was tested using annual scale growth measurements of wild Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers, Alaska, from 1964 to 2004. First-year marine growth in individual O. tshawytscha was significantly correlated with growth in fresh water. Furthermore, growth during each of 3 or 4 years at sea was related to growth during the previous year. The magnitude of the growth response to the previous year's growth was greater when mean year-class growth during the previous year was relatively low. Length (eye to tail fork, L _ETF) of adult O. tshawytscha was correlated with cumulative scale growth after the first year at sea. Adult L _ETF was also weakly correlated with scale growth that occurred during freshwater residence 4 to 5 years earlier, indicating the importance of growth in fresh water. Positive growth response to previous growth in O. tshawytscha was probably related to piscivorous diet and foraging benefits of large body size. Faster growth among O. tshawytscha year classes that initially grew slowly may reflect high mortality in slow growing fish and subsequent compensatory growth in survivors. Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in this study exhibited complex growth patterns showing a positive relationship with previous growth and a possible compensatory response to environmental factors affecting growth of the age class.     

Spatiotemporal patterns and habitat associations of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) invading salmon‐rearing habitat

1. Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) have been widely introduced to fresh waters throughout the world to promote recreational fishing opportunities. In the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.), upstream range expansions of predatory bass, especially into subyearling salmon‐rearing grounds, are of increasing conservation concern, yet have received little scientific inquiry. Understanding the habitat characteristics that influence bass distribution and the timing and extent of bass and salmon overlap will facilitate the development of management strategies that mitigate potential ecological impacts of bass. 2. We employed a spatially continuous sampling design to determine the extent of bass and subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sympatry in the North Fork John Day River (NFJDR), a free‐flowing river system in the Columbia River Basin that contains an upstream expanding population of non‐native bass. Extensive (i.e. 53 km) surveys were conducted over 2 years and during an early and late summer period of each year, because these seasons provide a strong contrast in the river’s water temperature and flow condition. Classification and regression trees were applied to determine the primary habitat correlates of bass abundance at reach and channel‐unit scales. 3. Our study revealed that bass seasonally occupy up to 22% of the length of the mainstem NFJDR where subyearling Chinook salmon occur, and the primary period of sympatry between these species was in the early summer and not during peak water temperatures in late summer. Where these species co‐occurred, bass occupied 60–76% of channel units used by subyearling Chinook salmon in the early summer and 28–46% of the channel units they occupied in the late summer. Because these rearing salmon were well below the gape limitation of bass, this overlap could result in either direct predation or sublethal effects of bass on subyearling Chinook salmon. The upstream extent of bass increased 10–23 km (2009 and 2010, respectively) as stream temperatures seasonally warmed, but subyearling Chinook salmon were also found farther upstream during this time. 4. Our multiscale analysis suggests that bass were selecting habitat based on antecedent thermal history at a broad scale, and if satisfactory temperature conditions were met, mesoscale habitat features (i.e. channel‐unit type and depth) played an additional role in determining bass abundance. The upstream extent of bass in the late summer corresponded to a high‐gradient geomorphic discontinuity in the NFJDR, which probably hindered further upstream movements of bass. The habitat determinants and upstream extent of bass were largely consistent across years, despite marked differences in the magnitude and timing of spring peak flows prior to bass spawning. 5. The overriding influence of water temperature on smallmouth bass distribution suggests that managers may be able limit future upstream range expansions of bass into salmon‐rearing habitat by concentrating on restoration activities that mitigate climate‐ or land‐use‐related stream warming. These management activities could be prioritised to capitalise on survival bottlenecks in the life history of bass and spatially focused on landscape knick points such as high‐gradient discontinuities to discourage further upstream movements of bass.     

Migration of Pacific Rim Chum Salmon on the High Seas: Insights from Genetic Data

Wild stocks of chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, have experienced recent declines in some areas of their range. Also, the release of hatchery chum salmon has escalated to nearly three billion fish annually. The decline of wild stocks and the unknown effects of hatchery fish combined with the uncertainty of future production caused by global climate change have renewed interest in the migratory patterns of chum salmon on the high seas. We studied the composition of high-seas mixtures of maturing and immature individuals using baseline data for 20 allozyme loci from 356 populations from throughout the Pacific Rim. Composition estimates were made from three time series. Two of these time series were from important coastal migratory corridors: the Shumagin Islands south of the Alaska Peninsula and the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The third was from chum salmon captured incidentally in the Bering Sea trawl fishery for walleye pollock. We also analyzed geographically dispersed collections of chum salmon captured in the month of July. The time series show dynamic changes in stock composition. The Shumagin Island corridor was used primarily by Northwest Alaskan and Asian populations in June; by the end of July stocks from the Alaska Peninsula and southern North America dominated the composition. The composition along the Kamchatka coast changed dramatically from primarily Russian stocks in May to primarily Japanese stocks in August; the previously undocumented presence of stocks from the Alaska Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska was also demonstrated. Immature chum salmon from throughout the Pacific Rim, including large proportions of southern North American stocks, contributed to the Bering Sea bycatch during the months of September and October. The migration routes of North American stocks is far more widespread than previously observed, and the Bering Sea is an important rearing area for maturing and immature chum salmon from throughout the species' range.     

Reproductive isolation following reintroduction of Chinook salmon with alternative life histories

We evaluated reproductive isolation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) life history types that have been reintroduced to northern Idaho, USA. Analysis of 1003 samples at six microsatellite loci revealed strong reproductive isolation between ocean- and stream-type Chinook salmon (fall and summer spawn timing, respectively) within the Clearwater River sub-basin (F _ST = 0.148, P < 0.00001). Very little evidence for gene flow among the two life history types was observed as assignment tests correctly assigned 99.6% of individuals in reference collections to either ocean- and steam-type Chinook salmon. Assignment of naturally reared juveniles indicated that both life history types were present with 24.1% stream-type and 75.9% ocean-type. Previous studies suggest high levels of divergence among the two life history types in natural populations, and our study verifies the persistence of reproductive isolation among types following colonization of habitat. Successful colonization of new habitat by (re)introduced species is likely influenced by diversity in life history types and this strategy has lead to naturally spawning populations in a variety of available habitats in the Clearwater River. As many populations of O. tshawytscha are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, hope for recovery lies not only in effective management and habitat improvement, but adaptability of this species.     

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed “regime shifts”), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976–1990), a compensatory regime (1991–2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.