The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2

Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high‐resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.     

CO2浓度升高对大豆干旱胁迫的缓解效应

CO2浓度升高和干旱带来的气候变化势必对大豆的生长造成影响.目前,CO2浓度升高对干旱胁迫下大豆生理生化的影响研究较少.本试验研究了不同CO2浓度(400、600 pumol ? mol-1)和水分处理下(正常水分:叶片相对含水量为83％-90％;干旱:叶片相对含水量为64％-70％)大豆开花期的光合能力、光合色素积累...     

Second generation bioenergy crops and climate change: a review of the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought on water use and the implications for yield

Second-generation, dedicated lignocellulosic crops for bioenergy are being hailed as the sustainable alternative to food crops for the generation of liquid transport fuels, contributing to climate change mitigation and increased energy security. Across temperate regions they include tree species grown as short rotation coppice and intensive forestry (e.g. Populus and Salix species) and C₄ grasses such as miscanthus and switchgrass. For bioenergy crops it is paramount that high energy yields are maintained in order to drive the industry to an economic threshold where it has competitive advantage over conventional fossil fuel alternatives. Therefore, in the face of increased planting of these species, globally, there is a pressing need for insight into their responses to predicted changes in climate to ensure these crops are 'climate proofed' in breeding and improvement programmes. In this review, we investigate the physiological responses of bioenergy crops to rising atmospheric CO₂ ([Ca]) and drought, with particular emphasis on the C₃ Salicaceae trees and C₄ grasses. We show that while crop yield is predicted to rise by up to 40% in elevated [Ca], this is tempered by the effects of water deficit. In response to elevated [Ca] stomatal conductance and evapotranspiration decline and higher leaf–water potentials are observed. However, whole-plant responses to [Ca] are often of lower magnitude and may even be positive (increased water use in elevated [Ca]). We conclude that rising [Ca] is likely to improve drought tolerance of bioenergy crop species due to improved plant water use, consequently yields in temperate environments may remain high in future climate scenarios.     

The role of temperature in determining the stimulation of CO2 assimilation at elevated carbon dioxide concentration in soybean seedlings

Soybean ( Glycine max cv. Clark) was grown at both ambient (ca 350 μmol mol⁻¹) and elevated (ca 700 μmol mol⁻¹) CO₂ concentration at 5 growth temperatures (constant day/night temperatures of 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40°C) for 17–22 days after sowing to determine the interaction between temperature and CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis (measured as A, the rate of CO₂ assimilation per unit leaf area) at both the single leaf and whole plant level. Single leaves of soybean demonstrated increasingly greater stimulation of A at elevated CO₂ as temperature increased from 25 to 35°C (i.e. optimal growth rates). At 40°C, primary leaves failed to develop and plants eventually died. In contrast, for both whole plant A and total biomass production, increasing temperature resulted in less stimulation by elevated CO₂ concentration. For whole plants, increased CO₂ stimulated leaf area more as growth temperature increased. Differences between the response of A to elevated CO₂ for single leaves and whole plants may be related to increased self-shading experienced by whole plants at elevated CO₂ as temperature increased. Results from the present study suggest that self-shading could limit the response of CO₂ assimilation rate and the growth response of soybean plants if temperature and CO₂ increase concurrently, and illustrate that light may be an important consideration in predicting the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO₂ at the whole plant level.     

Leaf and canopy scale drivers of genotypic variation in soybean response to elevated carbon dioxide concentration

The atmospheric [CO₂] in which crops grow today is greater than at any point in their domestication history and represents an opportunity for positive effects on seed yield that can counteract the negative effects of greater heat and drought this century. In order to maximize yields under future atmospheric [CO₂], we need to identify and study crop cultivars that respond most favorably to elevated [CO₂] and understand the mechanisms contributing to their responsiveness. Soybean (Glycine max Merr.) is a widely grown oilseed crop and shows genetic variation in response to elevated [CO₂]. However, few studies have studied the physiological basis for this variation. Here, we examined canopy light interception, photosynthesis, respiration and radiation use efficiency along with yield and yield parameters in two cultivars of soybean (Loda and HS93‐4118) previously reported to have similar seed yield at ambient [CO₂], but contrasting responses to elevated [CO₂]. Seed yield increased by 26% at elevated [CO₂] (600 μmol/mol) in the responsive cultivar Loda, but only by 11% in HS93‐4118. Canopy light interception and leaf area index were greater in HS93‐4118 in ambient [CO₂], but increased more in response to elevated [CO₂] in Loda. Radiation use efficiency and harvest index were also greater in Loda than HS93‐4118 at both ambient and elevated [CO₂]. Daily C assimilation was greater at elevated [CO₂] in both cultivars, while stomatal conductance was lower. Electron transport capacity was also greater in Loda than HS93‐4118, but there was no difference in the response of photosynthetic traits to elevated [CO₂] in the two cultivars. Overall, this greater understanding of leaf‐ and canopy‐level photosynthetic traits provides a strong conceptual basis for modeling genotypic variation in response to elevated [CO₂].     

Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may substantially alter soil carbon (C) dynamics, which in turn may impact future climate through feedback cycles. However, only very few field experiments worldwide have combined elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) with both warming and changes in precipitation in order to study the potential combined effects of changes in these fundamental drivers of C cycling in ecosystems. We exposed a temperate heath/grassland to eCO₂, warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years. At the end of the study, soil C stocks were on average 0.927 kg C/m² higher across all treatment combinations with eCO₂ compared to ambient CO₂ treatments (equal to an increase of 0.120 ± 0.043 kg C m^?2 year^?1), and showed no sign of slowed accumulation over time. However, if observed pretreatment differences in soil C are taken into account, the annual rate of increase caused by eCO₂ may be as high as 0.177 ± 0.070 kg C m^?2 year^?1. Furthermore, the response to eCO₂ was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO₂ observed here, even when combined with other climate change factors, suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations under future climate conditions. The feedback between land C and climate remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections, yet experimental data under simulated future climate, and especially including combined changes, are still scarce. Globally coordinated and distributed experiments with long‐term measurements of changes in soil C in response to the three major climate change‐related global changes, eCO₂, warming, and changes in precipitation patterns, are, therefore, urgently needed.     

Potential effects of elevated carbon dioxide on leaf-feeding forest insects

The elevated concentration of atmospheric CO2 may result in a decline of leaf nutritional quality (especially N) and an increase in some kinds of defensive secondary components (such as phenolics). The changes in the phytochemistry of trees, combined with the effect of elevated CO2 per se, have a potential negative influence on insect herbivores. Here, we review the effect of elevated CO2 on the performance of leaf-feeding forest insects at individual-level and commu-nity-level. The elevated CO2 per se have little influence on the metabolism of insects. Over half of the tree-insect experimental systems show that the performance of individual insect become poorer under high-CO2 grown trees; but the others show that the insects have just little or no response to the treatments. The direction and magnitude of the changes in the performance of insects could be mediated by various factors. The effects of treatment are strongly species-dependent. The magni-tude of changes in the phytochemistry, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of insects to the poorer leaf quality, the differences in plant growth conditions and experimental methods, and the mediated effects of other environmental factors (such as soil nutrient availability, light, temperature, O3) were all closely related to the final performance of insects. However, the larvae's consumption usually increased under enriched CO2 treatment, which was widely thought to be a compensa-tory response to poorer plant quality. The experiments on forest community-level found identically a reduction in herbivory, which was contrary to the results from small-scale experiments. The changes in insect popula-tion and the actual response of consumption by leaf-feeding forest insects under CO2 enrichment remain unclear, and more field-based experiments need to be conducted.     

Seasonal acclimation of leaf respiration in Eucalyptus saligna trees: impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 and summer drought

Understanding the impacts of atmospheric [CO₂] and drought on leaf respiration (R) and its response to changes in temperature is critical to improve predictions of plant carbon‐exchange with the atmosphere, especially at higher temperatures. We quantified the effects of [CO₂]‐enrichment (+240 ppm) on seasonal shifts in the diel temperature response of R during a moderate summer drought in Eucalyptus saligna growing in whole‐tree chambers in SE Australia. Seasonal temperature acclimation of R was marked, as illustrated by: (1) a downward shift in daily temperature response curves of R in summer (relative to spring); (2)≈60% lower R measured at 20^oC (R₂₀) in summer compared with spring; and (3) homeostasis over 12 months of R measured at prevailing nighttime temperatures. R₂₀, measured during the day, was on average 30–40% higher under elevated [CO₂] compared with ambient [CO₂] across both watered and droughted trees. Drought reduced R₂₀ by≈30% in both [CO₂] treatments resulting in additive treatment effects. Although [CO₂] had no effect on seasonal acclimation, summer drought exacerbated the seasonal downward shift in temperature response curves of R. Overall, these results highlight the importance of seasonal acclimation of leaf R in trees grown under ambient‐ and elevated [CO₂] as well as under moderate drought. Hence, respiration rates may be overestimated if seasonal changes in temperature and drought are not considered when predicting future rates of forest net CO₂ exchange.     

短期CO2浓度升高和干旱胁迫对白羊草土壤碳氮和微生物根际效应的影响

采用人工气候室和盆栽控水试验研究黄土丘陵区典型草本植物白羊草在倍增CO₂浓度(800 μmol·mol^-1)下和充分供水(75%～80%的田间持水量)、轻度干旱胁迫(55%～60%的田间持水量)和重度干旱胁迫(35%～40%的田间持水量)下根际和非根际土壤碳氮含量和微生物群落结构及其根际效应.结果表明: CO₂浓度升高和干旱胁迫对白羊草根际和非根际土壤有机碳、全氮和水溶性有机碳(DOC)含量及其根际效应均无显著影响.轻度干旱胁迫下CO₂浓度升高显著促进了根际土壤水溶性有机氮(DON)的消耗,导致DOC/DON升高,提高了DON的负根际效应和DOC/DON的正根际效应.干旱胁迫和CO₂浓度升高对土壤总磷脂脂肪酸(总PLFA)和细菌PLFA的根际效应无显著影响.CO₂浓度升高条件下干旱胁迫显著提高了根际土壤G⁺/G^- PLFA,降低了非根际土壤G⁺/G^- PLFA,导致其根际效应显著提高,表明根际微生物群落由自养微生物群落向异养微生物群落的转变.     

Response of plant roots to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide

Plant root response to atmospheric CO₂ enrichment can be great. Results from this controlled environment investigation demonstrate substantial effects on root system architecture, micromorphology and physiology. The most pronounced effects were an increase in root length (110%) and root dry weight (143%). Root diameter, stele diameter, cortex width, root/shoot and root weight ratios all increased; root numbers did not increase. The long-term implications for belowground processes could be enormous.     

Shoots, roots and ectomycorrhiza formation of pine seedlings at elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide

The effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration on the growth of shoots, roots, mycorrhizas and extraradical mycorrhizal mycelia of pine (Pinus silvestris L.) was examined. Two and a half-month-old seedlings were inoculated axenically with the mycorrhizal fungus Pisolithus tincto-rius (Pers.) by a method allowing rapid mycorrhiza formation in Petri dishes. The plants were then cultivated for 3 months in growth chambers with daily concentrations of 350 and 600 μmol mol^?1 CO₂ during the day. Whereas plants harvested after 1 and 2 months did not differ appreciably between ambient and increased CO₂ concentrations, after 3 months they developed a considerably higher root biomass (%57%) at elevated CO₂, but did not increase significantly in root length. The mycorrhizal fungus Pisolithus tinctorius, which depended entirely on the plant assimilates in the model system, grew much faster at increased CO₂: 3 times more mycorrhizal root clusters were formed and the extraradical mycelium produced had twice the biomass at elevated as at ambient CO₂. No difference in shoot biomass was found between the two treatments after 91 d. However, since the total water consumption of seedlings was similar in the two treatments, the water use efficiency was appreciably higher for the seedlings at increased CO₂ because of the higher below-ground biomass.     

大气CO2浓度升高对干旱条件下冬小麦叶片光合适应的影响

大气CO2浓度升高是全球气候变化的主要特征,但大气CO2浓度长期升高条件下冬小麦叶片发生光合适应的机制尚不十分清楚.本研究以盆栽冬小麦'郑麦9023,为试验材料,在人工气候控制室内设置2个CO2浓度(400和600 μmol·mol-1)、2个水分条件(田间持水量的80％±5％和55％±5％),测定拔节期和抽穗期的光合...     

大气CO2浓度升高对花蜜及传粉昆虫的影响

植物依赖昆虫传授花粉,昆虫从植物获得花粉和花蜜作为食物,两者在漫长的进化过程中形成了密切的互惠共生关系.大量研究表明,CO2浓度升高对植物花蜜的产量和组成有显著的影响.CO2浓度增加后,有花植物花蜜的产量和组分在不同物种之间的变化差异很大,即使是种内不同基因型植株的花蜜对CO2浓度增加的反应也有所不同.大部分种类花蜜的...     

Assessing the effect of elevated carbon dioxide on soil carbon: a comparison of four meta-analyses

Soil is the largest reservoir of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere and soil C has a relatively long mean residence time. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations generally increase plant growth and C input to soil, suggesting that soil might help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ rise and global warming. But to what extent mitigation will occur is unclear. The large size of the soil C pool not only makes it a potential buffer against rising atmospheric CO₂, but also makes it difficult to measure changes amid the existing background. Meta‐analysis is one tool that can overcome the limited power of single studies. Four recent meta‐analyses addressed this issue but reached somewhat different conclusions about the effect of elevated CO₂ on soil C accumulation, especially regarding the role of nitrogen (N) inputs. Here, we assess the extent of differences between these conclusions and propose a new analysis of the data. The four meta‐analyses included different studies, derived different effect size estimates from common studies, used different weighting functions and metrics of effect size, and used different approaches to address nonindependence of effect sizes. Although all factors influenced the mean effect size estimates and subsequent inferences, the approach to independence had the largest influence. We recommend that meta‐analysts critically assess and report choices about effect size metrics and weighting functions, and criteria for study selection and independence. Such decisions need to be justified carefully because they affect the basis for inference. Our new analysis, with a combined data set, confirms that the effect of elevated CO₂ on net soil C accumulation increases with the addition of N fertilizers. Although the effect at low N inputs was not significant, statistical power to detect biogeochemically important effect sizes at low N is limited, even with meta‐analysis, suggesting the continued need for long‐term experiments.     

Interactive effects of elevated carbon dioxide and growth temperature on photosynthesis in cotton leaves

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L., cv DPL 5415) plants were grown in naturally lit environment chambers at day/night temperature regimes of 26/18 (T-26/18), 31/23 (T-31/23) and 36/28 °C (T-36/28) and CO2 concentrations of 350 (C-350), 450 (C-450) and 700 L L-1 (C-700). Net photosynthesis rates, stomatal conductance, transpiration, RuBP carboxylase activity and the foliar contents of starch and sucrose were measured during different growth stages. Net CO2 assimilation rates increased with increasing CO2 and temperature regimes. The enhancement of photosynthesis was from 24 mol CO2 m-2 s-1 (with C-350 and T-26/18) to 41 mol m-2 s-1 (with C-700 and T-36/28). Stomatal conductance decreased with increasing CO2 while it increased up to T-31/23 and then declined. The interactive effects of CO2 and temperature resulted in a 30% decrease in transpiration. Although the leaves grown in elevated CO2 had high starch and sucrose concentrations, their content decreased with increasing temperature. Increasing temperature from T-26/18 to 36/28 increased RuBP carboxylase activity in the order of 121, 172 and 190 mol mg-1 chl h-1 at C-350, C-450 and C-700 respectively. Our data suggest that leaf photosynthesis in cotton benefited more from CO_2 enrichment at warm temperatures than at low growth temperature regimes.     

Increased C availability at elevated carbon dioxide concentration improves N assimilation in a legume

Plant growth is typically stimulated at elevated carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), but a sustained and maximal stimulation of growth requires acquisition of additional N in proportion to the additional C fixed at elevated [CO2]. We hypothesized that legumes would be able to avoid N limitation at elevated [CO2]. Soybean was grown without N fertilizer from germination to final senescence at elevated [CO2] over two growing seasons under fully open-air conditions, providing a model legume system. Measurements of photosynthesis and foliar carbohydrate content showed that plants growing at elevated [CO2] had a c. 25% increase in the daily integral of photosynthesis and c. 58% increase in foliar carbohydrate content, suggesting that plants at elevated [CO2] had a surplus of photosynthate. Soybeans had a low leaf N content at the beginning of the season, which was a further c. 17% lower at elevated [CO2]. In the middle of the season, ureide, total amino acid and N content increased markedly, and the effect of elevated [CO2] on leaf N content disappeared. Analysis of individual amino acid levels supported the conclusion that plants at elevated [CO2] overcame an early-season N limitation. These soybean plants showed a c. 16% increase in dry mass at final harvest and showed no significant effect of elevated [CO2] on leaf N, protein or total amino acid content in the latter part of the season. One possible explanation for these findings is that N fixation had increased, and that these plants had acclimated to the increased N demand at elevated [CO2].     

Yield response of field‐grown soybean exposed to heat waves under current and elevated [CO2]

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) generally enhances C₃ plant productivity, whereas acute heat stress, which occurs during heat waves, generally elicits the opposite response. However, little is known about the interaction of these two variables, especially during key reproductive phases in important temperate food crops, such as soybean (Glycine max). Here, we grew soybean under elevated [CO₂] and imposed high‐ (+9°C) and low‐ (+5°C) intensity heat waves during key temperature‐sensitive reproductive stages (R1, flowering; R5, pod‐filling) to determine how elevated [CO₂] will interact with heat waves to influence soybean yield. High‐intensity heat waves, which resulted in canopy temperatures that exceeded optimal growth temperatures for soybean, reduced yield compared to ambient conditions even under elevated [CO₂]. This was largely due to heat stress on reproductive processes, especially during R5. Low‐intensity heat waves did not affect yields when applied during R1 but increased yields when applied during R5 likely due to relatively lower canopy temperatures and higher soil moisture, which uncoupled the negative effects of heating on cellular‐ and leaf‐level processes from plant‐level carbon assimilation. Modeling soybean yields based on carbon assimilation alone underestimated yield loss with high‐intensity heat waves and overestimated yield loss with low‐intensity heat waves, thus supporting the influence of direct heat stress on reproductive processes in determining yield. These results have implications for rain‐fed cropping systems and point toward a climatic tipping point for soybean yield when future heat waves exceed optimum temperature.     

二氧化碳和臭氧浓度升高对春小麦生长及次生代谢的影响

通过开顶式气室(OTCs)研究了OTC对照（自然CO₂浓度约342 μmol·mol^-1,O₃浓度约30 nmol·mol^-1）、高浓度CO₂（550 μmol·mol^-1）、高浓度O₃（浓度为80 nmol·mol^-1）及其交互作用（CO₂ 550 μmol ·mol^-1,O₃ 80 nmol·mol^-1）对春小麦不同发育时期生物量、总酚量、黄酮含量及成熟期产量性状的影响.结果表明：CO₂浓度增加条件下,春小麦生物量和产量性状都显著高于OTC对照（P<0.05）;而O₃浓度升高条件下,小麦生物量降低,株高、穗长、穗粒质量及千粒重也显著低于对照;CO₂和O₃交互作用下各项指标处于二者之间.说明CO₂可以缓解O₃对小麦的负效应,而O₃对CO₂的正效应具有削弱作用,但二者的作用并非简单的叠加.CO₂、O₃浓度增加及其交互作用显著增加了春小麦叶片中的总酚含量,其中两者交互作用的效应更大,但在小麦生长后期,总酚含量增加量比对照有所降低.在小麦生长前期,各处理总黄酮含量均低于对照;而在成熟期,各处理都显著高于对照.     

寒地不同熟性品种水稻产量对CO2浓度和温度升高响应的模拟

选择黑龙江省作为研究区域,根据主栽水稻生育期内所需积温选取3个代表性品种,重点分析增温和大气CO₂肥效作用对不同熟性品种水稻产量的影响.采用2013年的逐日气象资料及开顶式气室(OTC)(3个CO₂浓度:390、450和550 μmol·mol^-1)试验资料对品种的遗传参数进行调试;然后采用经验证的CERES-Rice作物模型分别模拟了3个CO₂浓度水平下,伴随温度升高1、2、3和4 ℃时早、中、晚熟品种水稻产量.结果表明: 随CO₂浓度升高,不同品种水稻产量均上升;随温度升高,早熟品种产量持续下降,中、晚熟品种产量先上升再下降.若不考虑CO₂肥效作用,除了中熟和晚熟品种在增温1 ℃时会有3.1%和0.27%的小幅增产外,其余均表现为减产,其中早熟品种减产幅度最大,增温4 ℃时减产高达57.7%,而中熟和晚熟品种减产10%左右.若考虑CO₂肥效作用,450 μmol·mol^-1 CO₂浓度下,中熟和晚熟品种在增温2 ℃时仍增产0.75%和3.2%;550 μmol·mol^-1 CO₂浓度下,中熟品种在增温3 ℃时仍增产4.5%,晚熟品种在增温4 ℃时仍增产0.39%.而无论是否考虑CO₂肥效作用,早熟品种在增温作用下均表现大幅度减产.与不考虑CO₂肥效相比,大气CO₂肥效作用有效提高了水稻产量,但CO₂肥效对增产的贡献率在不同品种间差异不明显,且贡献率均小于10%.