Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season‐average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first‐year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth‐year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow‐free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low‐elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high‐elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low‐provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High‐ and low‐elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high‐provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Fine root responses to temporal nutrient heterogeneity and competition in seedlings of two tree species with different rooting strategies

There is little direct evidence for effects of soil heterogeneity and root plasticity on the competitive interactions among plants. In this study, we experimentally examined the impacts of temporal nutrient heterogeneity on root growth and interactions between two plant species with very different rooting strategies: Liquidambar styraciflua (sweet gum), which shows high root plasticity in response to soil nutrient heterogeneity, and Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), a species with less plastic roots. Seedlings of the two species were grown in sandboxes in inter‐ and intraspecific combinations. Nutrients were applied in a patch either in a stable (slow‐release) or in a variable (pulse) manner. Plant aboveground biomass, fine root mass, root allocation between nutrient patch and outside the patch, and root vertical distribution were measured. L. styraciflua grew more aboveground (40% and 27% in stable and variable nutrient treatment, respectively) and fine roots (41% and 8% in stable and variable nutrient treatment, respectively) when competing with P. taeda than when competing with a conspecific individual, but the growth of P. taeda was not changed by competition from L. styraciflua. Temporal variation in patch nutrient level had little effect on the species’ competitive interactions. The more flexible L. styraciflua changed its vertical distribution of fine roots in response to competition from P. taeda, growing more roots in deeper soil layers compared to its roots in conspecific competition, leading to niche differentiation between the species, while the fine root distribution of P. taeda remained unchanged across all treatments. Synthesis. L. styraciflua showed greater flexibility in root growth by changing its root vertical distribution and occupying space of not occupied by P. taeda. This flexibility gave L. styraciflua an advantage in interspecific competition.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Gender specific patterns of carbon uptake and water use in a dominant riparian tree species exposed to a warming climate

Air temperatures in the arid western United States are predicted to increase over the next century. These increases will likely impact the distribution of plant species, particularly dioecious species that show a spatial segregation of the sexes across broad resource gradients. On the basis of spatial segregation patterns, we hypothesized that temperature increases will have a greater negative impact on female plants compared with co‐occurring male plants of dioecious species. This hypothesis was tested by examining the whole‐plant carbon and water relations of 10‐year‐old female (n = 18) and male (n = 13) Acer negundo Sarg. trees grown in a common garden in Salt Lake City, UT. The trees were established from cuttings collected where the growing season temperature averaged about 6.5 °C cooler than at the common garden. During May and June, stem sap flux (J_s) was similar between genders, but averaged 25% higher in males during the warmer months of July and August. Daytime canopy stomatal conductance (g_s) per unit leaf area was 12% higher in females in May : June, but was 11% higher in males in July : August. We combined measurements of sap flux–scaled transpiration with measurements of tree allometry and δ¹³C of leaf soluble sugars to estimate whole‐tree carbon assimilation (A_tree) and water use efficiency (WUE) (A_tree : E_tree). A_tree was similar between genders until late August when A_tree was 32% higher in male trees. A_tree : E_tree was on average 7% higher in females than in males during the growing season. Patterns of J_s, g_s, A_tree and A_tree : E_tree in the present study were in contrast to those previously reported for A. negundo genders under native growing season temperatures. Results suggest that the spatial segregation of the sexes could shift under global warming such that female plants lose their dominance in high‐resource habitats, and males increase their dominance in relatively lower‐resource habitats.     

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide‐ranging frog species in an arid landscape

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.     

Ecological niche modelling of montane mammals in the Great Basin, North America: examining past and present connectivity of species across basins and ranges

Aim The goal of this study was to determine the extent of suitable habitats across the basins and ranges of the Great Basin for 13 montane mammals in the present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For all these mammal species, we test whether: (1) more suitable habitat was available in basin areas during the LGM; (2) suitable habitat shifted upwards in elevation between the LGM and the present; (3) more ranges have suitable habitat than are currently occupied; and (4) these species are currently restricted to suitable habitats at higher‐elevation range areas. We also examine whether and how much distributional response varies among these montane mammal species. Location The Great Basin of western North America. Methods We re‐examine the past and present distributions of 13 Great Basin montane mammals using ecological niche modelling techniques that utilize now widely available species occurrence data and new, fine‐scale past climatological GIS layers in the present and at the LGM. These methods provide an objective, repeatable means for visual comparison of past and present modelled distributions for species examined in previous biogeographical studies. Results Our results indicate greater areal and lower elevational suitable habitat in the LGM than at present for nearly all montane mammals, and that there is more suitable habitat at present than is currently occupied. Our results also show that lowland areas provide suitable dispersal routes between ranges for most of the montane mammals both at the LGM and at present. However, three of the 13 species have little to no predicted suitable habitat in the LGM near currently occupied ranges, in contrast to the pattern for the other 10. For these species, the model results support more recent long‐distance colonization. Main conclusions Our finding of suitable lowland dispersal routes in the present for most species supports and greatly extends similar findings from single‐species studies. Our results also provide a visually striking confirmation that changes in species distribution and colonization histories of Great Basin montane mammals vary in a fashion related to the tolerances and requirements of each of these species; this has previously been hypothesized but not rigorously tested for multiple montane mammals in the region.     

Decoupled responses of soil bacteria and their invertebrate consumer to warming,but not freeze–thaw cycles,in the Antarctic Dry Valleys

Altered temperature profiles resulting in increased warming and freeze–thaw cycle (FTC) frequency pose great ecological challenges to organisms in alpine and polar ecosystems. We performed a laboratory microcosm experiment to investigate how temperature variability affects soil bacterial cell numbers, and abundance and traits of soil microfauna (the microbivorous nematode Scottnema lindsayae) from McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. FTCs and constant freezing shifted nematode body size distribution towards large individuals, driven by higher mortality among smaller individuals. FTCs reduced both bacterial and nematode abundance, but bacterial cell numbers also declined under warming, demonstrating decoupled consumer–prey responses. We predict that higher occurrence of FTCs in cold ecosystems will select for large body size within soil microinvertebrates and overall reduce their abundance. In contrast, warm temperatures without FTCs could lead to divergent responses in soil bacteria and their microinvertebrate consumers, potentially affecting energy and nutrient transfer rates in soil food webs of cold ecosystems.     

Contrasting responses to Pleistocene climate changes: a case study of two sister species Allium cyathophorum and A. spicata (Amaryllidaceae) distributed in the eastern and western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

It has been hypothesized that species occurring in the eastern and the western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) responded differently to climate changes during the Pleistocene. Here, we test this hypothesis by phylogeographic analysis of two sister species, Allium cyathophorum and A. spicata. We sequenced two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) fragments (accD‐psaI and the rpl16 intron) of 150 individuals, and the nuclear (ITS) region of 114 individuals, from 19 populations throughout the distributional ranges of these species. The divergence between the two species was dated at 779 ‐ 714 thousand years before the present and was likely initiated by the most major glaciation in the QTP. Analysis of chlorotype diversity showed that A. spicata, the species occurring in the western QTP, contains much lower genetic diversity (0.25) than A. cyathophorum (0.93), which is distributed in the eastern QTP. Moreover, multiple independent tests suggested that the A. spicata population had expanded recently, while no such expansion was detected in A. cyathophorum, indicating a contrasting pattern of responses to Pleistocene climate changes. These findings highlight the importance of geographical topography in determining how species responded to the climate changes that took place in the QTP during the Pleistocene.     

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures,dry soil,and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km² of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.