Optimal climate for large trees at high elevations drives patterns of biomass in remote forests of Papua New Guinea

Our ability to model global carbon fluxes depends on understanding how terrestrial carbon stocks respond to varying environmental conditions. Tropical forests contain the bulk of the biosphere's carbon. However, there is a lack of consensus as to how gradients in environmental conditions affect tropical forest carbon. Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies within one of the largest areas of contiguous tropical forest and is characterized by environmental gradients driven by altitude; yet, the region has been grossly understudied. Here, we present the first field assessment of aboveground biomass (AGB) across three main forest types of PNG using 193 plots stratified across 3,100‐m elevation gradient. Unexpectedly, AGB had no direct relationship to rainfall, temperature, soil, or topography. Instead, natural disturbances explained most variation in AGB. While large trees (diameter at breast height > 50 cm) drove altitudinal patterns of AGB, resulting in a major peak in AGB (2,200–3,100 m) and some of the most carbon‐rich forests at these altitudes anywhere. Large trees were correlated to a set of climatic variables following a hump‐shaped curve. The set of “optimal” climatic conditions found in montane cloud forests is similar to that of maritime temperate areas that harbor the largest trees in the world: high ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (2.8), moderate mean annual temperature (13.7°C), and low intra‐annual temperature range (7.5°C). At extreme altitudes (2,800–3,100 m), where tree diversity elsewhere is usually low and large trees are generally rare or absent, specimens from 18 families had girths >70 cm diameter and maximum heights 20–41 m. These findings indicate that simple AGB‐climate‐edaphic models may not be suitable for estimating carbon storage in forests where optimal climate niches exist. Our study, conducted in a very remote area, suggests that tropical montane forests may contain greater AGB than previously thought and the importance of securing their future under a changing climate is therefore enhanced.     

Fruit fall in tropical and temperate forests: implications for frugivore diversity

There have been few attempts to compare fruit productivity throughout the world, although this is indispensable for understanding the global variations in frugivore diversity. The purposes of this study are (1) to reveal the patterns in fruit fall in tropical and temperate forests, (2) to examine the environmental factors (location, climate, and total litterfall) affecting these patterns, and (3) to assess the effect of fruit fall on frugivore diversity by using bird and primate data. Fruit fall was compared among 53 forests, from around the equator to the cool-temperate zone at 62°N, in Asia, Africa, North and South America, and Australia. Average ± SD of fruit fall (kg/ha/year) was 454 ± 258 in tropical, and 362 ± 352 in temperate forests. Fruit fall was exceptionally high in Australia (812 ± 461). When Australia was excluded, fruit fall significantly decreased with increasing absolute latitude and altitude, and fruit fall in tropical forest was 1.7 times larger than that in temperate forests (265 ± 227). Total litterfall affected fruit fall significantly, explaining 32, 28, and 64% of the variations of fruit fall in the entire data, tropical data, and temperate data, respectively. The fruit fall/litterfall ratio did not differ between temperate and tropical forests but was significantly higher in Australia than in other regions. Among climatic parameters (annual temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration), a positive relationship was found between temperature and fruit fall in the entire dataset and within temperate forests. Fruit fall seemed to explain the temperate/tropical difference in frugivorous primate diversity to some extent, but not for frugivorous bird diversity. This study shows that the difference in fruit fall in tropical and temperate forests is smaller than that in frugivore diversity, and that it could explain at least part of the frugivore diversity.     

High-fidelity representation of climate variations by Amburana cearensis tree-ring chronologies across a tropical forest transition in South America

Numerous ring-width chronologies from different species have recently been developed in diverse tropical forests across South America. However, the temporal and spatial climate signals in these tropical chronologies is less well known. In this work, annual growth rings of Amburana cearensis, a widely distributed tropical tree species, were employed to estimate temporal and spatial patterns of climate variability in the transition from the dry Chiquitano (16–17°S) to the humid Guarayos-southern Amazon (14–15°S) forests. Four well-replicated chronologies (16–21 trees, 22–28 radii) of A. cearensis were compared with temperature and precipitation records available in the region. The interannual variations in all four A. cearensis tree-ring chronologies are positively correlated with precipitation and negatively with temperature during the late dry-early wet season, the classic moisture response seen widely in trees from dry tropical and temperate forests worldwide. However, the chronologies from the dry Chiquitano forests of southern Bolivia reflect the regional reduction in precipitation during recent decades, while the chronologies from the tropical lowland moist forests in the north capture the recent increase in precipitation in the southern Amazon basin. These results indicate that A. cearensis tree growth is not only sensitive to the moisture balance of the growing season, it can also record subtle differences in regional precipitation trends across the dry to humid forest transition. Comparisons with previously developed Centrolobium microchaete chronologies in the region reveal a substantial common signal between chronologies in similar environments, suggesting that regional differences in climate are a major drivers of tree growth along the precipitation gradient. The difficulty of finding A. cearensis trees over 150-years old is the main limitation involved in the paleoclimate application of this species. The expansion of monocultures and intensive cattle ranching in the South American tropics are contributing to the loss of these old growth A. cearensis trees and the valuable records of climate variability and climate change that they contain.     

Response of an old‐growth tropical rainforest to transient high temperature and drought

Tropical rainforests have experienced episodes of severe heat and drought in recent decades, and climate models project a warmer and potentially drier tropical climate over this century. However, likely responses of tropical rainforests are poorly understood due to a lack of frequent long‐term measurements of forest structure and dynamics. We analyzed a 12‐year record (1999–2010) of 47 817 annual measurements of canopy height to characterize the response of an old‐growth Neotropical rainforest to the severe heat and drought associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño. Well‐drained soils on slopes and plateaus experienced a threefold increase in the fraction of the landscape in gaps (≤2 m) and a reduction in the fraction in high canopy (>15 m) causing distributions of canopy height to depart from equilibrium for a period of 2–3 years. In contrast, forests on low‐lying alluvial terraces remained in equilibrium and were nearly half as likely to experience upper canopy (>15 m) disturbance over the 12 years of observation. Variation in forest response across topographic positions suggests that tropical rainforests are more sensitive to moisture deficits than high temperature and that topography likely structures landscape‐level variation in the severity of drought impacts.     

Climate-growth relations of congeneric tree species vary across a tropical vegetation gradient in Brazil

Seasonally dry tropical forests are an important global climatic regulator, a main driver of the global carbon sink dynamics and are predicted to suffer future reductions in their productivity due to climate change. Yet, little is known about how interannual climate variability affects tree growth and how climate-growth responses vary across rainfall gradients in these forests. Here we evaluate changes in climate sensitivity of tree growth along an environmental gradient of seasonally dry tropical vegetation types (evergreen forest – savannah – dry forest) in Northeastern Brazil, using congeneric species of two common neotropical genera: Aspidosperma and Handroanthus. We built tree-ring width chronologies for each species × forest type combinations and explored how growth variability correlated with local (precipitation, temperature) and global (the El Niño Southern Oscillation - ENSO) climatic factors. We also assessed how growth sensitivity to climate and the presence of growth deviations varied along the gradient. Precipitation stimulates tree growth and was the main growth-influencing factor across vegetation types. Trees in the dry forest site showed highest growth sensitivity to interannual variation in precipitation. Temperature and ENSO phenomena correlated negatively with growth and sensitivity to both climatic factors were similar across sites. Negative growth deviations were present and found mostly in the dry-forest species. Our results reveal a dominant effect of precipitation on tree growth in seasonally dry tropical forests and suggest that along the gradient, dry forests are the most sensitivity to drought. These forests may therefore be the most vulnerable to the deleterious effects of future climatic changes. These results highlight the importance of understanding the climatic sensitivity of different tropical forests. This understanding is key to predict the carbon dynamics in tropical regions, and sensitivity differences should be considered when prioritizing conservation measures of seasonally dry topical forests.     

Determinants of soil organic carbon sequestration and its contribution to ecosystem carbon sinks of planted forests

The area of forest established through afforestation/reforestation has been increasing on a global scale, which is particularly important as these planted forests attenuate climate change by sequestering carbon. However, the determinants of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and their contribution to the ecosystem carbon sink of planted forests remain uncertain. By using globally distributed data extracted from 154 peer‐reviewed publications and a total of 355 sampling points, we investigated above‐ground biomass carbon (ABC) sequestration and SOC sequestration across three different climatic zones (tropical, warm temperate, and cold temperate) through correlation analysis, regression models, and structural equation modeling (SEM). We found that the proportion of SOC sequestration in the ecosystem C sequestration averaged 14.1% globally, being the highest (27.0%) in the warm temperate and the lowest (10.7%) in the tropical climatic zones. The proportion was mainly affected by latitude. The sink rate of ABC (R_ABC) in tropical climates (2.48 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1) and the sink rate of SOC (R_SOC) in warm temperate climates (0.96 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1) were higher than other climatic zones. The main determinants of R_SOC were the number of frost‐free days, latitude, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and SOC density (SOCD) at the initial observation; however, these variables depended on the climatic zone. According to the SEM, frost‐free period, mean annual temperature (MAT) and MAP are the dominant driving factors affecting R_SOC in Chinese plantations. MAT has a positive effect on R_SOC, and global warming may increase R_SOC of temperate plantations in China. Our findings highlight the determinants of SOC sequestration and quantitatively reveal the substantial global contribution of SOC sequestration to ecosystem carbon sink provided by planted forests. Our results help managers identify and control key factors to increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems.     

Plant Traits Demonstrate That Temperate and Tropical Giant Eucalypt Forests Are Ecologically Convergent with Rainforest Not Savanna

Ecological theory differentiates rainforest and open vegetation in many regions as functionally divergent alternative stable states with transitional (ecotonal) vegetation between the two forming transient unstable states. This transitional vegetation is of considerable significance, not only as a test case for theories of vegetation dynamics, but also because this type of vegetation is of major economic importance, and is home to a suite of species of conservation significance, including the world’s tallest flowering plants. We therefore created predictions of patterns in plant functional traits that would test the alternative stable states model of these systems. We measured functional traits of 128 trees and shrubs across tropical and temperate rainforest – open vegetation transitions in Australia, with giant eucalypt forests situated between these vegetation types. We analysed a set of functional traits: leaf carbon isotopes, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf slenderness, wood density, maximum height and bark thickness, using univariate and multivariate methods. For most traits, giant eucalypt forest was similar to rainforest, while rainforest, particularly tropical rainforest, was significantly different from the open vegetation. In multivariate analyses, tropical and temperate rainforest diverged functionally, and both segregated from open vegetation. Furthermore, the giant eucalypt forests overlapped in function with their respective rainforests. The two types of giant eucalypt forests also exhibited greater overall functional similarity to each other than to any of the open vegetation types. We conclude that tropical and temperate giant eucalypt forests are ecologically and functionally convergent. The lack of clear functional differentiation from rainforest suggests that giant eucalypt forests are unstable states within the basin of attraction of rainforest. Our results have important implications for giant eucalypt forest management.     

Temperate forest termites: ecology,biogeography, and ecosystem impacts

1. Wood decomposition in temperate forests is dominated by termites, fungi, and some species of ants and beetles. Outside of urban areas, temperate termite ecology is largely unknown, particularly when compared to tropical termites and other temperate organisms in the functional guild of wood‐decomposing animals. 2. This review combines climate habitat modelling with knowledge of species physiology, behaviour, and community interactions to identify and prioritise future research on temperate termite ecology and biogeography. 3. Using a correlative climate model, the regional distributions of three common temperate forest termite species are shown to correlate with different aspects of climate (e.g. mean versus minimum monthly temperature), but that overall their distributions within temperate systems correlate more strongly with temperature variables than with precipitation variables. 4. Existing data are synthesised to outline how the subterranean, wood‐nesting behaviour of most temperate forest termite species links their activity to an additional set of non‐climate controls: wood type and tree species, soil depth, fungal activity, ant abundances and phenology, and competitive asymmetries among termite species. 5. Although fine‐scale estimates of temperate termite abundances are rare, we provide upper bounds on their ecosystem impacts and illustrate how their regional abundances may influence forest structure and habitat availability for other organisms. 6. This review highlights that rigorous ecological studies in non‐urban, intact ecosystems – with a particular focus on community interactions – are critically needed to accurately project future abundances, economic impacts, and ecosystem effects of temperate forest termites.     

Long-term drought effects on the thermal sensitivity of Amazon forest trees

The continued functioning of tropical forests under climate change depends on their resilience to drought and heat. However, there is little understanding of how tropical forests will respond to combinations of these stresses, and no field studies to date have explicitly evaluated whether sustained drought alters sensitivity to temperature. We measured the temperature response of net photosynthesis, foliar respiration and the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) of eight hyper-dominant Amazonian tree species at the world's longest-running tropical forest drought experiment, to investigate the effect of drought on forest thermal sensitivity. Despite a 0.6°C–2°C increase in canopy air temperatures following long-term drought, no change in overall thermal sensitivity of net photosynthesis or respiration was observed. However, photosystem II tolerance to extreme-heat damage (T₅₀) was reduced from 50.0 ± 0.3°C to 48.5 ± 0.3°C under drought. Our results suggest that long-term reductions in precipitation, as projected across much of Amazonia by climate models, are unlikely to greatly alter the response of tropical forests to rising mean temperatures but may increase the risk of leaf thermal damage during heatwaves.     

Large losses of inorganic nitrogen from tropical rainforests suggest a lack of nitrogen limitation

Inorganic nitrogen losses from many unpolluted mature tropical forests are over an order of magnitude higher than losses from analogous temperate forests. This pattern could either reflect a lack of N limitation or accelerated plant-soil N cycling under tropical temperatures and moisture. We used a simple analytical framework of the N cycle and compared our predictions with data of N in stream waters of temperate and tropical rainforests. While the pattern could be explained by differences in N limitation, it could not be explained based on up-regulation of the internal N cycle without invoking the unlikely assumption that tropical plants are two to four times less efficient at taking up N than temperate plants. Our results contrast with the idea that a tropical climate promotes and sustains an up-regulated and leaky - but N-limited - internal N cycle. Instead, they are consistent with the notion that many tropical rainforests exist in a state of N saturation.     

Convergence in growth responses of tropical trees to climate driven by water stress

Widely documented for temperate and cold forests in both hemispheres, variations in tree growth responses to climate along environmental gradients have rarely been investigated in the tropics. Seven tree‐ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete (Fabaceae) in the Cerrado tropical forests of Bolivia are used to determine the growth responses to climate along a precipitation gradient. Chronologies are distributed from the humid Guarayos forests (annual precipitation > 1600 mm) in the transition to the Amazonia to the dry‐mesic Chiquitos forests (annual precipitation < 1200 mm) in the proximity to the dry Chaco. On a large spatial scale, radial growth is positively influenced by rainfall and negatively by temperature at the end of the dry season. However, this regional pattern in climate‐tree growth relationship shows differences along the precipitation gradient. Relationships with climate are highly significant and extend over longer periods of the year in sites with low rainfall and extremely severe dry seasons. At wet sites, larger water soil capacity and endogenous forest dynamics partially mask the direct influence of climate on tree growth. Stronger similarities in tree‐growth responses to climate occur between sites in the dry Central Chiquitos and in the transition to the Guarayos forests. In contrast, the relationships show fewer similarities between sites in the humid Guarayos. We conclude that growth responses to climate in the tropics are more similar between sites with limited rainfall and severe and prolonged dry seasons. Our study points to a convergence in the patterns of growth responses of tropical trees to climate, modulated by scarce rainfall and marked seasonality. The negative impact of water deficits on tree physiological processes induces not only the documented reduction in forest species richness, but also a convergence in tree‐growth responses to climate in dry tropical forests.     

Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison

There is a major concern for the fate of Amazonia over the coming century in the face of anthropogenic climate change. A key area of uncertainty is the scale of rainforest dieback to be expected under a future, drier climate. In this study, we use the middle Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present) as an approximate analogue for a drier future, given that palaeoclimate data show much of Amazonia was significantly drier than present at this time. Here, we use an ensemble of climate and vegetation models to explore the sensitivity of Amazonian biomes to mid-Holocene climate change. For this, we employ three dynamic vegetation models (JULES, IBIS, and SDGVM) forced by the bias-corrected mid-Holocene climate simulations from seven models that participated in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3). These model outputs are compared with a multi-proxy palaeoecological dataset to gain a better understanding of where in Amazonia we have most confidence in the mid-Holocene vegetation simulations. A robust feature of all simulations and palaeodata is that the central Amazonian rainforest biome is unaffected by mid-Holocene drought. Greater divergence in mid-Holocene simulations exists in ecotonal eastern and southern Amazonia. Vegetation models driven with climate models that simulate a drier mid-Holocene (100–150 mm per year decrease) better capture the observed (palaeodata) tropical forest dieback in these areas. Based on the relationship between simulated rainfall decrease and vegetation change, we find indications that in southern Amazonia the rate of tropical forest dieback was ~125,000 km² per 100 mm rainfall decrease in the mid-Holocene. This provides a baseline sensitivity of tropical forests to drought for this region (without human-driven changes to greenhouse gases, fire, and deforestation). We highlight the need for more palaeoecological and palaeoclimate data across lowland Amazonia to constrain model responses.     

Nitrogen stable isotopic composition of leaves and soil: Tropical versus temperate forests

Several lines of evidence suggest that nitrogen in most tropical forests is relatively more available than N in most temperate forests, and even that it may function as an excess nutrient in many tropical forests. If this is correct, tropical forests should have more open N cycles than temperate forests, with both inputs and outputs of N large relative to N cycling within systems. Consequent differences in both the magnitude and the pathways of N loss imply that tropical forests should in general be more¹⁵N enriched than are most temperate forests. In order to test this hypothesis, we compared the nitrogen stable isotopic composition of tree leaves and soils from a variety of tropical and temperate forests. Foliar ¹⁵N values from tropical forests averaged 6.5 higher than from temperate forests. Within the tropics, ecosystems with relatively low N availability (montane forests, forests on sandy soils) were significantly more depleted in¹⁵N than other tropical forests. The average ¹⁵N values for tropical forest soils, either for surface or for depth samples, were almost 8 higher than temperate forest soils. These results provide another line of evidence that N is relatively abundant in many tropical forest ecosystems.     

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire‐driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO₂ will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought‐fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire‐driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2‐million km² Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait‐based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate‐carbon‐fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.     

A Meta-analysis of Climatic and Chemical Controls on Leaf Litter Decay Rates in Tropical Forests

Although tropical forests occupy a small fraction of the earth’s total land area, they play a disproportionately large role in regulating the global carbon cycle. Yet controls on both primary productivity and decomposition in tropical forests are not well-studied in comparison with temperate forests and grasslands, despite their extreme biogeochemical heterogeneity. To evaluate the relative importance of climate and foliar chemical variables in driving decomposition in tropical forests, I performed a meta-analysis of reported leaf litter decay rates throughout tropical forest ecosystems. Using a model selection procedure based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, I found that temperature and precipitation played little direct role in regulating decomposition rates, except in montane forests where cool temperatures slowed decay. Foliar concentrations of calcium, magnesium, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium were important predictors of mass loss rates, although each of these factors explained a very small amount of variance when considered in isolation. The large amount of unexplained variation in decomposition rates observed both within and across tropical forest sites may be due to other factors not explored here, such as soil biota or complex plant secondary chemistry. Carbon cycling in tropical forests seems to be modulated by the availability of multiple nutrients, underscoring the need for additional manipulative experiments to explore patterns of belowground nutrient limitation across the biome. Because models of decomposition developed in temperate ecosystems do not appear to be generalizable to wet tropical forests, new biogeochemical paradigms should be developed to accommodate their unique combination of climatic, edaphic, and biotic factors.     

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power-law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R² = .19) and maximum burn severity (R² = .12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society.     

Post-Glacial Climate–Fire Interactions Control Tree Composition of Mesic Temperate Forests in Eastern North America

Stand-scale gap-phase dynamics is generally viewed as the main driver of development in mesic deciduous forests of the temperate biome. Soil charcoal of temperate forests in eastern North America are unnoticed in most surveys, thus explaining why fire is undervalued as a driver of forest succession. The extent to which gap-phase, fire, or other processes are responsible for the regeneration and maintenance of mesic deciduous forests is unknown because paleoecological evidence is lacking. We tested the fire-driven succession hypothesis on the development of this major forest type. Based on charcoal ¹⁴C dates of two sites, 44 and 55 fires occurred since early Holocene, with a mean interval of 170 to 215 years. The vegetation of both sites followed comparable post-glacial trajectories consisting of three distinct periods. Conifers dominated the two first periods during 5200–6000 years and were replaced by hardwoods–conifers over the last 3500 years. The first period was represented by boreal conifers, whereas the second period, dominated by white pine (Pinus strobus) forests, persisted during 3000–4300 years. The third period marked the development of hardwood (sugar maple, Acer saccharum) forests. Fires occurred continuously on the sites since early Holocene likely under dry conditions during the conifer periods and cooler and moister conditions during the hardwood–conifer period. Recurrent fires appear with climate as key drivers of the long-term dynamics of several temperate forests in eastern North America. Similar studies on other temperate forests should be pursued to test the hypothesis of climate–fire interactions influencing tree composition change.

     

Mechanisms of Araucaria (Atlantic) Forest Expansion into Southern Brazilian Grasslands

Recent studies have shown that tropical and subtropical forests expanded during the late Holocene, but rates and mechanisms of expansion are still unknown. Here, we investigate how a forest–grassland mosaic changed over the past 10,000 years at the southernmost limit of the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We used soil organic matter carbon isotopes (δ¹³C and ¹⁴C) to quantify and date changes in vegetation, examining soil properties and leaf traits of tree species (nutrient content, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and specific leaf area—SLA) to describe potential mechanisms of expansion. Our results show that after several millennia of stability, forests have been expanding over grasslands through continuous, but very slow, border dynamics and patch formation (<100 m since ~4,000 YBP). This process of expansion coincided with past changes in climate, but biotic feedback mechanisms also appear to be important for the long-term persistence and expansion of forests. Soil fertility and microbial biomass match current rather than past vegetation distribution, increasing progressively across the gradient: grasslands < isolated trees < forest patches < forests. Foliar δ¹⁵N values of trees that are able to colonize the grassland are consistently lower across this vegetation gradient, suggesting an increasingly greater reliance on symbiotic nutrient uptake from grasslands to forests. No significant relationships were found between soil and leaf nutrients, but SLA explained variation in leaf N, P, and K (positive relationships) and in leaf δ¹³C (negative relationship). These findings suggest that a tradeoff between tree growth and water use efficiency is an important regulator of forest–grassland dynamics in the study region.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Climatic sensitivity of species’ vegetative and reproductive phenology in a Hawaiian montane wet forest

Understanding how tropical tree phenology (i.e., the timing and amount of seed and leaf production) responds to climate is vital for predicting how climate change may alter ecological functioning of tropical forests. We examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on seed phenology of four dominant species and community-level leaf phenology in a montane wet forest on the island of Hawaiʻi using monthly data collected over ~ 6 years. We expected that species phenologies would be better explained by variation in temperature and PAR than rainfall because rainfall at this site is not limiting. The best-fit model for all four species included temperature, rainfall, and PAR. For three species, including two foundational species of Hawaiian forests (Acacia koa and Metrosideros polymorpha), seed production declined with increasing maximum temperatures and increased with rainfall. Relationships with PAR were the most variable across all four species. Community-level leaf litterfall decreased with minimum temperatures, increased with rainfall, and showed a peak at PAR of ~ 400 μmol/m²s⁻¹. There was considerable variation in monthly seed and leaf production not explained by climatic factors, and there was some evidence for a mediating effect of daylength. Thus, the impact of future climate change on this forest will depend on how climate change interacts with other factors such as daylength, biotic, and/or evolutionary constraints. Our results nonetheless provide insight into how climate change may affect different species in unique ways with potential consequences for shifts in species distributions and community composition.