共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
Mark Fennell James E. Murphy Tommy Gallagher Bruce Osborne 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(4):1262-1274
The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate‐induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread‐rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. 相似文献
2.
Understanding connectivity of coral populations among and within reefs over ecologically significant timescales is essential for developing evidence‐based management strategies, including the design of marineprotected areas. Here, we present the first assessment of contemporary connectivity among populations of two Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) of the brooding coral Pocillopora damicornis. We used individual‐based genetic assignment methods to identify the proportions of philopatric and migrant larval recruits, settling over 12 months at sites around Lizard Island (northern Great Barrier Reef [GBR]) and over 24 months at sites around the Palms Islands (central GBR). Overall, we found spatially and temporally variable rates of self‐recruitment and dispersal, demonstrating the importance of variation in local physical characteristics in driving dispersal processes. Recruitment patterns and inferred dispersal distances differed between the two P. damicornis MOTUs, with type α recruits exhibiting predominantly philopatric recruitment, while the majority of type β recruits were either migrants from identified putative source populations or assumed migrants based on genetic exclusion from all known populations. While P. damicornis invests much energy into brooding clonal larvae, we found that only 15% and 7% of type α and type β recruits, respectively, were clones of sampled adult colonies or other recruits, challenging the hypothesis that reproduction is predominantly asexual in this species on the GBR. We explain high rates of self‐recruitment and low rates of clonality in these MOTUs by suggesting that locally retained larvae originate predominantly from spawned gametes, while brooded larvae are mainly vagabonds. 相似文献
3.
Simon J. van Gennip Ekaterina E. Popova Andrew Yool Gretta T. Pecl Alistair J. Hobday Cascade J. B. Sorte 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(7):2602-2617
Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high‐resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5‐class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present‐day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. 相似文献
4.
Pablo Saenz‐Agudelo Geoffrey P. Jones Simon R. Thorrold Serge Planes 《Molecular ecology》2012,21(19):4695-4705
Connectivity, the demographic linking of local populations through the dispersal of individuals, is one of the most poorly understood processes in population dynamics, yet has profound implications for conservation and harvest strategies. For marine species with pelagic larvae, direct estimation of connectivity remains logistically challenging and has mostly been limited to single snapshots in time. Here, we document seasonal and interannual patterns of larval dispersal in a metapopulation of the coral reef fish Amphiprion polymnus. A 3‐year record of larval trajectories within and among nine discrete local populations from an area of approximately 35 km was established by determining the natal origin of settled juveniles through DNA parentage analysis. We found that spatial patterns of both self‐recruitment and connectivity were remarkably consistent over time, with a low level of self‐recruitment at the scale of individual sites. Connectivity among sites was common and multidirectional in all years and was not significantly influenced by seasonal variability of predominant surface current directions. However, approximately 75% of the sampled juveniles could not be assigned to parents within the study area, indicating high levels of immigrations from sources outside the study area. The data support predictions that the magnitude and temporal stability of larval connectivity decreases significantly with increasing distance between subpopulations, but increases with the size of subpopulations. Given the considerable effort needed to directly measure larval exchange, the consistent patterns suggest snapshot parentage analyses can provide useful dispersal estimates to inform spatial management decisions. 相似文献
5.
Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions. 相似文献
6.
We investigate competition between separate periodical cicada populations each possessing different life‐cycle lengths. We build an individual‐based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and allow random migrations to occur between patches inhabited by the different populations. We show that if hybridization between different cycle lengths produces offspring that have an intermediate life‐cycle length, then predation acts disproportionately to select against the hybrid offspring. This happens because they emerge in low densities without the safety‐in‐numbers provided by either parent population. Thus, prime‐numbered life cycles that can better avoid hybridization are favored. However, we find that this advantage of prime‐numbered cycles occurs only if there is some mechanism that can occasionally synchronize emergence between local populations in sufficiently many patches. 相似文献
7.
《Evolutionary Applications》2018,11(6):978-994
In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual‐based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem‐level management. 相似文献
8.
For marine fish and invertebrates, larval dispersal plays a critical role in determining connections among source and sink habitats, and the lack of a predictive understanding of larval dispersal is a fundamental obstacle to the development of spatially explicit restoration plans for marine populations. We investigated larval dispersal patterns of eastern oyster in an estuary along the Northern Gulf of Mexico under different simulation scenarios of tidal amplitude and phase, river discharge, wind direction, and larval vertical migration, using a coupled biophysical transport model. We focused on the dispersal of larvae released from the commercially exploited (Cedar Point, CP) and non‐exploited (Bon Secour Bay, BSB) oyster populations. We found that high flushing rates through the dominant inlet prevented larval exchange between the commercially exploited and non‐exploited populations, resulting in negligible connectivity between them. Variations in tidal amplitude, river discharge and wind direction played a more important role in the amount of larvae retained in Mobile Bay when they are released from CP than from BSB. Under most of the scenarios, larvae from BSB were retained around the spawning area, while larvae from CP showed a predominant westward flow. Net sinking behavior of late‐stage larvae increased larval retention in the bay, but physical transport showed a higher impact in the amount of larvae retained. These findings have enhanced our understanding of larval dispersal of eastern oyster in a wide, shallow estuarine system, and been used to establish spatially explicit strategies for oyster restoration in the Mobile Bay system, Alabama. 相似文献
9.
Emma F. Young Mark Belchier Lorenz Hauser Gavin J. Horsburgh Michael P. Meredith Eugene J. Murphy Sonia Pascoal Jennifer Rock Niklas Tysklind Gary R. Carvalho 《Evolutionary Applications》2015,8(5):486-509
Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a ‘seascape genetics’ approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long‐distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts. 相似文献
10.
Frédérik Saltré Anne Duputié Cédric Gaucherel Isabelle Chuine 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(2):897-910
Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process‐based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north‐eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1–2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36–61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life‐history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future. 相似文献
11.
12.
Trond Kristiansen Charles Stock Kenneth F. Drinkwater Enrique N. Curchitser 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(5):1559-1584
Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual‐based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM‐projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950–1999 and 2050–2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050–2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold‐water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large‐scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic. 相似文献
13.
Jeroen van der Kooij Georg H. Engelhard David A. Righton 《Journal of Biogeography》2016,43(11):2285-2298
14.
Understanding the spatial scale of demographic connectivity in marine reef fishes dispersing pelagic larvae is a challenging task because of the technical difficulties associated with tagging and monitoring the movements of progeny at early life stages. Several studies highlighted a strong importance of local retention with levels of dispersal of ecological significance restricted to short distances. To date little information is available in species where pelagic dispersal lasts for long periods of time. In this work, population structure and connectivity were studied in the grey triggerfish, Balistes capriscus. Grey triggerfish larvae and juveniles remain associated with floating Sargassum sp. beds for an estimated period of 4–7 months before settling on benthic habitats where they remain sedentary as adults. Analysis of genetic variation among populations along the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast, encompassing over 3,100 km of coastline, revealed homogeneous allele frequencies and a weak isolation‐by‐distance pattern. Moment and maximum‐likelihood estimates of dispersal parameters both indicated occurrence of large neighbourhoods with estimates of the dispersal distribution parameter σ of 914 and 780 km, respectively. Simulated distributions of dispersal distances using several distribution functions all featured substantial fractions of long‐distance dispersal events with the 90% percentiles of travel distance prior to settlement averaging 1,809 km. These results suggest a high dependency of local recruitment on the output of nonlocal spawning stocks located hundreds of kilometres away and a reduced role of local retention in this species. 相似文献
15.
Paul D. Spencer Anne B. Hollowed Michael F. Sigler Albert J. Hermann Mark W. Nelson 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(11):3954-3971
Trait‐based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait‐based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data‐rich and data‐poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait‐based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data‐rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex‐vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from “low” to “high,” but vulnerability ranged between “low” and “moderate” due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks. 相似文献
16.
Caroline E. Dub Emilie Boissin Alexandre Mercire Serge Planes 《Molecular ecology》2020,29(8):1508-1522
Dispersal is a critical process for the persistence and productivity of marine populations. For many reef species, there is increasing evidence that local demography and self‐recruitment have major consequences on their genetic diversity and adaptation to environmental change. Yet empirical data of dispersal patterns in reef‐building species remain scarce. Here, we document the first genetic estimates of self‐recruitment and dispersal distances in a free‐spawning marine invertebrate, the hydrocoral Millepora cf. platyphylla. Using twelve microsatellite markers, we gathered genotypic information from 3,160 georeferenced colonies collected over 27,000 m2 of a single reef in three adjacent habitats in Moorea, French Polynesia; the mid slope, upper slope, and back reef. Although the adult population was predominantly clonal (85% were clones), our parentage analysis revealed a moderate self‐recruitment rate with a minimum of 8% of sexual propagules produced locally. Assigned offspring often settled at <10 m from their parents and dispersal events decrease with increasing geographic distance. There were no discrepancies between the dispersal distances of offspring assigned to parents belonging to clonal versus nonclonal genotypes. Interhabitat dispersal events via cross‐reef transport were also detected for sexual and asexual propagules. Sibship analysis showed that full siblings recruit nearby on the reef (more than 40% settled at <30 m), resulting in sibling aggregations. Our findings highlight the importance of self‐recruitment together with clonality in stabilizing population dynamics, which may ultimately enhance local sustainability and resilience to disturbance. 相似文献
17.
Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time‐series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern‐ and north‐easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries‐independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. 相似文献
18.
19.
Raúl Sánchez‐Salguero Jesus Julio Camarero Emilia Gutiérrez Fidel González Rouco Antonio Gazol Gabriel Sangüesa‐Barreda Laia Andreu‐Hayles Juan Carlos Linares Kristina Seftigen 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(7):2705-2719
Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions. 相似文献
20.
Katherine M. Renwick Caroline Curtis Andrew R. Kleinhesselink Daniel Schlaepfer Bethany A. Bradley Cameron L. Aldridge Benjamin Poulter Peter B. Adler 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(1):424-438
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments. 相似文献