Timing matters: species‐specific interactions between spawning time,substrate quality,and recruitment success in three salmonid species

Substratum quality and oxygen supply to the interstitial zone are crucial for the reproductive success of salmonid fishes. At present, degradation of spawning grounds due to fine sediment deposition and colmation are recognized as main factors for reproductive failure. In addition, changes in water temperatures due to climate change, damming, and cooling water inlets are predicted to reduce hatching success. We tested the hypothesis that the biological effects of habitat degradation depend strongly on the species‐specific spawning seasons and life‐history strategies (e.g., fall‐ vs. spring‐spawners, migratory vs. resident species) and assessed temperature as an important species‐specific factor for hatching success within river substratum. We studied the species‐specific differences in their responses to such disturbances using egg‐to‐fry survival of Danube Salmon (Hucho hucho), resident brown trout (Salmo trutta fario), and migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta lacustris) as biological endpoint. The egg incubation and hatching success of the salmonids and their dependence on temperature and stream substratum quality were compared. Hatching rates of Danube salmon were lower than of brown trout, probably due to higher oxygen demands and increased interstitial respiration in spring. Increases in maximum water temperature reduced hatching rates of resident and migratory brown trout (both fall‐spawners) but were positively correlated with hatching rates of Danube salmon (a spring‐spawner). Significantly longer incubation periods of resident and migratory brown trout coincided with relatively low stream substratum quality at the end of the egg incubation. Danube salmon seem to avoid low oxygen concentrations in the hyporheic zone by faster egg development favored by higher water temperatures. Consequently, the prediction of effects of temperature changes and altered stream substratum properties on gravel‐spawning fishes and biological communities should consider the observed species‐specific variances in life‐history strategies to increase conservation success.     

Global warming and egg size of birds

Global warming or climate change is known to have many effects on plants, but there has been relatively little research on global warming and animals, partly because too few long-term studies have been carried out. In northern areas, mean temperature is believed to be rising, and indeed during the last decades mean spring temperatures in Finnish Lapland have increased. In 1975-1993, mean air temperature during the main egg-laying period of a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population correlated positively and significantly with mean egg volume of that population. Since larger eggs enjoy improved hatching success, global warming may alter birds' reproductive strategies, because warmer weather may allow females to invest more resources in reproduction. This in turn may help birds rapidly conquer new areas when they become available and compensate for rising mortality rates to be expected elsewhere where warming means desiccation.     

Linking warming effects on phenology,demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population‐level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10‐fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate‐driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population‐wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature‐mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.     

Nesting outcomes under anthropogenic change – effects of changing climate and nestbox provision on the reproduction of Great Tits Parus major

Global anthropogenic changes are significantly impacting the ecology and evolution of many species. Among temperate taxa, changes to reproductive phenology as a result of warming springs are apparent. However, how such responses to abiotic change interact with biotic impacts resulting from human management interventions are less clear. Here we examine the response of a range of breeding metrics (laying date, clutch size, hatching and fledging success) to interactions between climatic variables and changes in conspecific density (and hence intraspecific competition) resulting from changes in nestbox provision. Using a 37‐year dataset on the Great Tit Parus major we found little evidence for interacting effects of these two drivers. Instead we found that either climatic or competitive effects were the key influence on different metrics. Annual mean laying date substantially advanced with a warming climate, whereas clutch size, hatching success and fledging success were significantly inversely associated with conspecific density. Annual variance in clutch size and hatching success increased weakly with measures of conspecific density, but there was no association between either climatic or density measures and the annual variance in laying date or fledging success. Increasing conspecific densities therefore resulted in years with lower, but more variable, reproductive rates. These results highlight the importance of adaptive provisioning of nestboxes to enhance reproductive output of hole‐nesting birds regardless of climate‐induced phenological change. Such management is likely to be appropriate for assisting with sustaining populations responding to a changing climate.     

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.     

Incubation behavior adjustments,driven by ambient temperature variation,improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar peak in a wild bird population

For organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54‐year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in‐nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.     

Early springs and breeding performance in two sympatric duck species with different migration strategies

The capacity of migratory species to adapt to climate change may depend on their migratory and reproductive strategies. For example, reproductive output is likely to be influenced by how well migration and nesting are timed to temporal patterns of food abundance, or by temperature variations during the brood rearing phase. Based on two decades (1988–2009) of waterfowl counts from a boreal catchment in southern Finland we assessed how variation in ice break‐up date affected nesting phenology and breeding success in two sympatric duck species, Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Eurasian Teal Anas crecca. In Fennoscandia these species have similar breeding habitat requirements but differ in migration distance; Teal migrate roughly seven times as far as do Mallard. Annual ice break‐up date was used as a proxy of spring ‘earliness’ to test the potential effect of climate change on hatching timing and breeding performance. Both species were capable of adapting their nesting phenology, and bred earlier in years when spring was early. However, the interval from ice break‐up to hatching tended to be longer in early springs in both species, so that broods hatched relatively later than in late springs. Ice break‐up date did not appear to influence annual number of broods per pair or annual mean brood size in either species. Our study therefore does not suggest that breeding performance in Teal and Mallard is negatively affected by advancement of ice break‐up at the population level. However, both species showed a within‐season decline in brood size with increasing interval between ice break‐up and hatching. Our study therefore highlights a disparity between individuals in their capacity to adjust to ice break‐up date, late breeders having a lower breeding success than early breeders. We speculate that breeding success of both species may therefore decline should a consistent trend towards earlier springs occur.     

Past, current and future thermal profiles of green turtle nesting grounds: Implications from climate change

Sex determination and hatching success in sea turtles is temperature dependent and as a result global warming poses a threat to sea turtles. Warmer sand temperatures may skew sea turtle population′s sex ratios towards predominantly females and decrease hatching success. Therefore, understanding the rates at which sand temperatures are likely to increase as climate change progresses is warranted. We recorded sand temperature and used historical sea surface and air temperature to model past and to predict future sand temperature under various scenarios of global warming at key sea turtle nesting grounds (n = 7) used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle, Chelonia mydas, population. Reconstructed temperatures from 1990 to the present suggest that sand temperatures at the nesting sites studied have not changed significantly during the last 18 years. Current thermal profile at the nesting grounds suggests a bias towards female hatchling production into this population. Inter-beach thermal variance was observed at some nesting grounds with open areas in the sand dune at northern facing beaches having the warmest incubating environments. Our model projections suggest that a near complete feminization of hatchling output into this population will occur by 2070 under an extreme scenario of climate change (A1T emission scenario). Importantly, we found that some nesting grounds will still produce male hatchlings, under the most extreme scenario of climate change, this finding differs from predictions for other locations. Information from this study provides a better understanding of possible future changes in hatching success and sex ratios at each site and identifies important male producing regions. This allowed us to suggest strategies that can be used at a local scale to offset some of the impacts of warmer incubating temperatures to sea turtles.     

Consistent within‐individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36‐year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within‐ versus between‐individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within‐individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population‐level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no “IxE” interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within‐individual plasticity to population‐level responses to climate change.     

Reproductive ecology of the jacky dragon (Amphibolurus muricatus): an agamid lizard with temperature‐dependent sex determination

Abstract The jacky dragon, Amphibolurus muricatus (White, ex Shaw 1790) is a medium sized agamid lizard from the southeast of Australia. Laboratory incubation trials show that this species possesses temperature‐dependent sex determination. Both high and low incubation temperatures produced all female offspring, while varying proportions of males hatched at intermediate temperatures. Females may lay several clutches containing from three to nine eggs during the spring and summer. We report the first field nest temperature recordings for a squamate reptile with temperature‐dependent sex determination. Hatchling sex is determined by nest temperatures that are due to the combination of daily and seasonal weather conditions, together with maternal nest site selection. Over the prolonged egg‐laying season, mean nest temperatures steadily increase. This suggests that hatchling sex is best predicted by the date of egg laying, and that sex ratios from field nests will vary over the course of the breeding season. Lizards hatching from eggs laid in the spring (October) experience a longer growing season and should reach a larger body size by the beginning of their first reproductive season, compared to lizards from eggs laid in late summer (February). Adult male A. muricatus attain a greater maximum body size and have relatively larger heads than females, possibly as a consequence of sexual selection due to male‐male competition for territories and mates. If reproductive success in males increases with larger body size, then early hatching males may obtain a greater fitness benefit as adults, compared to males that hatch in late summer. We hypothesize that early season nests should produce male‐biased sex ratios, and that this provides an adaptive explanation for temperature‐dependent sex determination in A. muricatus.     

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species

Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.     

Breeding season weather determines long‐tailed tit reproductive success through impacts on recruitment

Productivity is a key demographic trait that can be influenced by climate change, but there are substantial gaps in our understanding of the impact of weather on productivity and recruitment in birds. Weather is known to influence reproductive success in numerous species, although such effects have not been reported in all studies, perhaps because they are masked by high nest predation rates or buffered by density dependence. Here, we use a 19‐yr study of a population of individually marked long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus to quantify the impacts of weather on productivity in the nest (from eggs to fledging) and subsequent recruitment, while taking nest predation rates and density dependence into account. We find that weather has negligible effects on clutch size, hatching success, brood size, probability of fledging and number of fledglings. Annual variation in nest predation rates is a strong predictor of productivity, but we find no evidence that the magnitude of nest predation is determined by weather. Recruitment was strongly associated with breeding season weather, even when taking density dependence effects into account. This contrasts with the conventional view that first year survival of temperate passerines is primarily determined by winter weather. Recruitment was reduced when March temperatures were high, perhaps caused by earlier peaks in caterpillar abundance and thus reduced food availability at the time of fledging. Recruitment increased following high May temperatures, perhaps due to an improved thermo‐regulatory environment for young fledglings. These opposing effects of warm March and May temperatures highlight the importance of considering asymmetrical rates of warming in different months when predicting climate change impacts.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Context‐specific influence of water temperature on brook trout growth rates in the field

1. Modelling the effects of climate change on freshwater fishes requires robust field‐based estimates accounting for interactions among multiple factors. 2. We used data from an 8‐year individual‐based study of a wild brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) population to test the influence of water temperature on season‐specific growth in the context of variation in other environmental (i.e. season, stream flow) or biotic factors (local brook trout biomass density and fish age and size) in West Brook, a third‐order stream in western Massachusetts, U.S.A. 3. Changes in ambient temperature influenced individual growth rates. In general, higher temperatures were associated with higher growth rates in winter and spring and lower growth rates in summer and autumn. However, the effect of temperature on growth was strongly context‐dependent, differing in both magnitude and direction as a function of season, stream flow and fish biomass density. 4. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong and complex interactive effects on trout growth. At the coldest temperatures (in winter), high stream flows were associated with reduced trout growth rates. During spring and autumn and in typical summers (when water temperatures were close to growth optima), higher flows were associated with increased growth rates. In addition, the effect of flow at a given temperature (the flow‐temperature interaction) differed among seasons. 5. Trout density negatively affected growth rate and had strong interactions with temperature in two of four seasons (i.e. spring and summer) with greater negative effects at high temperatures. 6. Our study provided robust, integrative field‐based estimates of the effects of temperature on growth rates for a species which serves as a model organism for cold‐water adapted ectotherms facing the consequences of environmental change. Results of the study strongly suggest that failure to derive season‐specific estimates, or to explicitly consider interactions with flow regime and fish density, will seriously compromise our ability to predict the effects of climate change on stream fish growth rates. Further, the concordance we found between empirical observations and likely energetic mechanisms suggests that our general results should be relevant at broader spatial and temporal scales.     

Temperature effects on forest herbs assessed by warming and transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient

Slow‐colonizing forest understorey plants are probably not able to rapidly adjust their distribution range following large‐scale climate change. Therefore, the acclimation potential to climate change within their actual occupied habitats will likely be key for their short‐ and long‐term persistence. We combined transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient with open‐top chambers to assess the effects of temperature on phenology, growth and reproductive performance of multiple populations of slow‐colonizing understorey plants, using the spring flowering geophytic forb Anemone nemorosa and the early summer flowering grass Milium effusum as study species. In both species, emergence time and start of flowering clearly advanced with increasing temperatures. Vegetative growth (plant height, aboveground biomass) and reproductive success (seed mass, seed germination and germinable seed output) of A. nemorosa benefited from higher temperatures. Climate warming may thus increase future competitive ability and colonization rates of this species. Apart from the effects on phenology, growth and reproductive performance of M. effusum generally decreased when transplanted southwards (e.g., plant size and number of individuals decreased towards the south) and was probably more limited by light availability in the south. Specific leaf area of both species increased when transplanted southwards, but decreased with open‐top chamber installation in A. nemorosa. In general, individuals of both species transplanted at the home site performed best, suggesting local adaptation. We conclude that contrasting understorey plants may display divergent plasticity in response to changing temperatures which may alter future understorey community dynamics.     

Maternal health status correlates with nest success of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) from Florida

Of the seven sea turtle species, the critically endangered leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) exhibits the lowest and most variable nest success (i.e., hatching success and emergence success) for reasons that remain largely unknown. In an attempt to identify or rule out causes of low reproductive success in this species, we established the largest sample size (n = 60–70 for most values) of baseline blood parameters (protein electrophoresis, hematology, plasma biochemistry) for this species to date. Hematologic, protein electrophoretic and biochemical values are important tools that can provide information regarding the physiological condition of an individual and population health as a whole. It has been proposed that the health of nesting individuals affects their reproductive output. In order to establish correlations with low reproductive success in leatherback sea turtles from Florida, we compared maternal health indices to hatching success and emergence success of their nests. As expected, hatching success (median = 57.4%) and emergence success (median = 49.1%) in Floridian leatherbacks were low during the study period (2007–2008 nesting seasons), a trend common in most nesting leatherback populations (average global hatching success = ∼50%). One protein electrophoretic value (gamma globulin protein) and one hematologic value (red blood cell count) significantly correlated with hatching success and emergence success. Several maternal biochemical parameters correlated with hatching success and/or emergence success including alkaline phosphatase activity, blood urea nitrogen, calcium, calcium∶phosphorus ratio, carbon dioxide, cholesterol, creatinine, and phosphorus. Our results suggest that in leatherbacks, physiological parameters correlate with hatching success and emergence success of their nests. We conclude that long-term and comparative studies are needed to determine if certain individuals produce nests with lower hatching success and emergence success than others, and if those individuals with evidence of chronic suboptimal health have lower reproductive success.     

Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species

Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg‐burying reptiles that exhibit temperature‐dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest‐site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small‐scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human‐induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.     

Nest box design for a changing climate: The value of improved insulation

Mean air temperatures and the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events such as heatwaves are increasing due to climate change. Nest boxes experience more variable and extreme temperatures than natural cavities, which may reduce survival and reproductive success of the species which utilize them, but little is known about the factors which drive nest box temperature profiles. We quantified the potential for retrofitted insulation on nest boxes to modify internal temperatures and to mimic the thermal characteristics of natural cavities more closely. We tested three types of materials with insulative or reflective properties which were easy to retrofit to nest boxes: 3‐cm‐thick polystyrene, pleated foil batts and reflective paint. We found that polystyrene and foil batts reduced mean nest box temperatures during the day by 0.31 ± 0.01°C and 0.17 ± 0.01°C, respectively (but up to 5.84°C and 4.02°C). The effects of all insulation types were dependent on the time of day, and only polystyrene had a significant effect at night, with a greater capacity to retain heat (mean 0.21 ± 0.01°C warmer). Contrary to expectations, reflective paint caused a small increase in temperature during the late afternoon. In our study, the temperature modulation provided by insulation was able to match or exceed that due to variation in nest location and surrounding vegetation canopy cover. Our findings show that polystyrene and foil batts may offer effective and tractable means to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures in nest boxes and thereby help achieve temperature profiles more similar to natural cavities.     

Are life history events of a northern breeding population of Cooper's Hawks influenced by changing climate?

Numerous studies have demonstrated earlier timing of spring migration and egg‐laying in small passerines, but documentation of such responses to recent climate change in the life histories of higher trophic feeding birds such as raptors is relatively scarce. Raptors may be particularly susceptible to possible adverse effects of climate change due to their longer generation turnover times and lower reproductive capacity, which could lead to population declines because of an inability to match reproductive timing with optimal brood rearing conditions. Conversely adaptively favorable outcomes due to the influence of changing climate may occur. In general, birds that seasonally nest earlier typically have higher reproductive output compared to conspecifics that nest later in the season. Given the strong seasonal decline in reproductive output, and the heritability of nesting phenology, it is possible that nesting seasons would (adaptively) advance over time. Recent climate warming may release prior ecological constraints on birds that depend on food availability at the time of egg production, as do various raptors including Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Under this scenario, productivity, especially clutch size, might increase because it is likely that this reproductive demographic may be the most immediate response to the earlier seasonal presence of food resources. We demonstrated a statistically significant shift of about 4–5 days to an earlier timing of egg‐hatching in spring across 36 years during 1980–2015 for a partially migratory population of Cooper's Hawks in Wisconsin, United States, which is consistent with a recent study that showed that Cooper's Hawks had advanced their timing of spring migration during 1979–2012. Both studies occurred in the Great Lakes region, an area that compared to global averages is experiencing earlier and increased warming particularly in the spring in Wisconsin. The nesting period did not lengthen. We suggest that the gradual shift of six consecutive generations of hawks was likely in response to recent climate change or warming. We did not detect any long‐term temporal change in average clutch or brood sizes. However, such indices of reproduction are among the highest known for the species and thus may be at their physio‐ecological maximum for this population. Our study population appears to show resilience to and does not appear to be adversely influenced by the recent rate of changing climate at this time.     

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density‐dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density‐independent) factors and intrinsic (density‐dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density‐dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density‐dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete‐time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density‐dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate‐driven environmental change.