Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.     

Population trends of European common birds are predicted by characteristics of their climatic niche

Temperate species are projected to experience the greatest temperature increases across a range of modelled climate change scenarios, and climate warming has been linked to geographical range and population changes of individual species at such latitudes. However, beyond the multiple modelling approaches, we lack empirical evidence of contemporary climate change impacts on populations in broad taxonomic groups and at continental scales. Identifying reliable predictors of species resilience or susceptibility to climate warming is of critical importance in assessing potential risks to species, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here we analysed long‐term trends of 110 common breeding birds across Europe (20 countries), to identify climate niche characteristics, adjusted to other environmental and life history traits, that predict large‐scale population changes accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species. Beyond the now well‐documented decline of farmland specialists, we found that species with the lowest thermal maxima (as the mean spring and summer temperature of the hottest part of the breeding distribution in Europe) showed the sharpest declines between 1980 and 2005. Thermal maximum predicted the recent trends independently of other potential predictors. This study emphasizes the need to account for both land‐use and climate changes to assess the fate of species. Moreover, we highlight that thermal maximum appears as a reliable and simple predictor of the long‐term trends of such endothermic species facing climate change.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.     

棉铃虫发生与北太平洋海温的遥相关及其长期灾变预警

本文分析了山东郓城26年（1974～1999）、德州22年（1978～1999）和江苏丰县20年（1980～1999）棉铃虫百株累计卵量与北太平洋海温的遥相关关系及其时空动态规律,并选出相关显著程度P<0.05概率水平、空间分布范围较大、持续时间较长而稳定的组合作为关键预测因子组建了郓城、德州棉铃虫三代卵,丰县棉铃虫二代卵的预测模型,并筛选出最优长期灾变预警模型。结果表明：① 北太平洋海温场与棉铃虫种群数量消长存在显著或极显著的遥相关区域,其位置及范围随时间变化,但存在若干呈现出空间稳定性和时间持续性的大面积相关显著区域。② 郓城棉铃虫三代卵量和丰县棉铃虫二代卵量与北太平洋海温场的相关区分布形式很相似,与前两年1月份北太平洋月平均海温场存在大片相关显著的区域（35°～ 55°N,135°E～135°W）,持续时间达4个月之久;而德州棉铃虫三代卵量与前两年7～9月份北太平洋低纬度海温有大范围相关显著区（1°～17°N,165°E～120°W）。 ③ 用前两年1～11月份北太平洋海温场相关显著区内各格点的月平均海温距平的平均值做因子建立了棉铃虫长期灾变预警模型,预测检验结果表明：郓城棉铃虫三代卵6年（1994～1999）中报准5年,丰县棉铃虫二代卵5年（1995～1999）中报准3年,德州棉铃虫三代卵5年（1995～1999）全部符合。据此可提前20～27个月做棉铃虫的长期灾变预警。     

Combining limnological and palaeolimnological data to disentangle the effects of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystems: problems and potential

1. As long‐term observational lake records continue to lengthen, the historical overlap with lake sediment records grows, providing increasing opportunities for placing the contemporary ecological status of lakes in a temporal perspective. 2. Comparisons between long‐term data sets and sediment records, however, require lake sediments to be accurately dated and for sediment accumulation rates to be sufficiently rapid to allow precise matching with observational data. 3. The critical role of the sediment record in this context is its value in tracking the changing impact of human activity on a lake from a pre‐disturbance reference through to the present day. 4. Here, we use data from a range of lakes across Europe presented as case studies in this Special Section. The seven sites considered all possess both long‐term observational records and high‐quality sediment records. Our objective is to assess whether recent climate change is having an impact on their trophic status and in particular whether that impact can be disentangled from the changes associated with nutrient pollution. 5. The palaeo‐data show clear evidence for the beginning of nutrient pollution varying from the mid‐nineteenth century at Loch Leven to the early and middle twentieth century at other sites. The monitoring data show different degrees of recovery when judged against the palaeo‐reference. 6. The reason for limited recovery is attributed to continuing high nutrient concentrations related to an increase in diffuse nutrient loading or to internal P recycling, but there is some evidence that climate change may be playing a role in offsetting recovery at some sites. If this is the case, then lake ecosystems suffering from eutrophication may not necessarily return to their pre‐eutrophication reference status despite the measures that have been taken to reduce external nutrient loading. 7. The extent to which future warming might further limit such recovery can be evaluated only by continued monitoring combined with the use of palaeo‐records that set the pre‐eutrophication reference.