Consistent centennial-scale change in European sub-Arctic peatland vegetation toward Sphagnum dominance—Implications for carbon sink capacity

Climate warming is leading to permafrost thaw in northern peatlands, and current predictions suggest that thawing will drive greater surface wetness and an increase in methane emissions. Hydrology largely drives peatland vegetation composition, which is a key element in peatland functioning and thus in carbon dynamics. These processes are expected to change. Peatland carbon accumulation is determined by the balance between plant production and peat decomposition. But both processes are expected to accelerate in northern peatlands due to warming, leading to uncertainty in future peatland carbon budgets. Here, we compile a dataset of vegetation changes and apparent carbon accumulation data reconstructed from 33 peat cores collected from 16 sub-arctic peatlands in Fennoscandia and European Russia. The data cover the past two millennia that has undergone prominent changes in climate and a notable increase in annual temperatures toward present times. We show a pattern where European sub-Arctic peatland microhabitats have undergone a habitat change where currently drier habitats dominated by Sphagnum mosses replaced wetter sedge-dominated vegetation and these new habitats have remained relatively stable over the recent decades. Our results suggest an alternative future pathway where sub-arctic peatlands may at least partly sustain dry vegetation and enhance the carbon sink capacity of northern peatlands.     

Ecosystem state shifts during long‐term development of an Amazonian peatland

The most carbon (C)‐dense ecosystems of Amazonia are areas characterized by the presence of peatlands. However, Amazonian peatland ecosystems are poorly understood and are threatened by human activities. Here, we present an investigation into long‐term ecohydrological controls on C accumulation in an Amazonian peat dome. This site is the oldest peatland yet discovered in Amazonia (peat initiation ca. 8.9 ka BP), and developed in three stages: (i) peat initiated in an abandoned river channel with open water and aquatic plants; (ii) inundated forest swamp; and (iii) raised peat dome (since ca. 3.9 ka BP). Local burning occurred at least three times in the past 4,500 years. Two phases of particularly rapid C accumulation (ca. 6.6–6.1 and ca. 4.9–3.9 ka BP), potentially resulting from increased net primary productivity, were seemingly driven by drier conditions associated with widespread drought events. The association of drought phases with major ecosystem state shifts (open water wetland–forest swamp–peat dome) suggests a potential climatic control on the developmental trajectory of this tropical peatland. A third drought phase centred on ca. 1.8–1.1 ka BP led to markedly reduced C accumulation and potentially a hiatus during the peat dome stage. Our results suggest that future droughts may lead to phases of rapid C accumulation in some inundated tropical peat swamps, although this can lead ultimately to a shift to ombrotrophy and a subsequent return to slower C accumulation. Conversely, in ombrotrophic peat domes, droughts may lead to reduced C accumulation or even net loss of peat. Increased surface wetness at our site in recent decades may reflect a shift towards a wetter climate in western Amazonia. Amazonian peatlands represent important carbon stores and habitats, and are important archives of past climatic and ecological information. They should form key foci for conservation efforts.     

Carbon storage dynamics in peatlands: Comparing recent‐ and long‐term accumulation histories in southern Patagonia

Peatlands have been important terrestrial carbon (C) reservoirs throughout the Holocene, yet whether these ecosystems will become stronger or weaker C sinks in the future remains debated. While surface peat layers (acrotelm) have a greater apparent rate of C accumulation than deeper, millennial‐aged peat (catotelm), it is difficult to project how much more aerobic decomposition will take place before the younger surface cohorts join the older deeper ones. Studies have suggested that warming could lead to weakened C accumulation in peatlands due to enhanced aerobic decay in the acrotelm, which would lead to a slower transfer of peat into the catotelm, if any. Conversely, other studies have suggested increased C accumulation in the acrotelm and thus, larger long‐term C transfer into the catotelm under warming conditions because of greater plant productivity and faster peat accumulation. Improving our predictions about the rate of present and future peatland development is important to forecast feedbacks on the global C cycle and help inform land management decisions. In this study, we analyzed two peat cores from southern Patagonia to calculate their long‐ versus short‐peat C accumulation rates. The acrotelm rates were compared to the catotelm peat C legacies using an empirical modeling approach that allows calculating the future catotelm peat storage based on today's acrotelm characteristics, and thus predict if those recent rates of C accumulation will lead to greater or weaker long‐term C storage in the future. Our results indicate that, depending on local bioclimatic parameters, some peatlands may become stronger C sinks in the future, while others may become weaker. In the case of this study, the wetter site is expected to increase its C sink capacity, while our prediction for the drier site is a net decrease in C sequestration in the coming decades to centuries.     

Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic

The majority of northern peatlands were initiated during the Holocene. Owing to their mass imbalance, they have sequestered huge amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Although recent syntheses have filled some knowledge gaps, the extent and remoteness of many peatlands pose challenges to developing reliable regional carbon accumulation estimates from observations. In this work, we employed an individual‐ and patch‐based dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS) with peatland and permafrost functionality to quantify long‐term carbon accumulation rates in northern peatlands and to assess the effects of historical and projected future climate change on peatland carbon balance. We combined published datasets of peat basal age to form an up‐to‐date peat inception surface for the pan‐Arctic region which we then used to constrain the model. We divided our analysis into two parts, with a focus both on the carbon accumulation changes detected within the observed peatland boundary and at pan‐Arctic scale under two contrasting warming scenarios (representative concentration pathway—RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). We found that peatlands continue to act as carbon sinks under both warming scenarios, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced under the high‐warming (RCP8.5) scenario after 2050. Areas where peat production was initially hampered by permafrost and low productivity were found to accumulate more carbon because of the initial warming and moisture‐rich environment due to permafrost thaw, higher precipitation and elevated CO₂ levels. On the other hand, we project that areas which will experience reduced precipitation rates and those without permafrost will lose more carbon in the near future, particularly peatlands located in the European region and between 45 and 55°N latitude. Overall, we found that rapid global warming could reduce the carbon sink capacity of the northern peatlands in the coming decades.     

Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change

The response of peatlands to changes in the climatic water budget is crucial to predicting potential feedbacks on the global carbon (C) cycle. To gain insight on the patterns and mechanisms of response, we linked a model of peat accumulation to a model of peatland hydrology, then applied these models to empirical data spanning the past 5000 years for the large mire Store Mosse in southern Sweden. We estimated parameters for C sequestration and height growth by fitting the peat accumulation model to two age profiles. Then, we used independent reconstruction of climate wetness and model reconstruction of bog height to examine changes in peatland hydrology. Reconstructions of C sequestration showed two distinct patterns of behaviour: abrupt increases associated with major transitions in vegetation and dominant Sphagnum species (fuscum, rubellum–fuscum and magellanicum stages), and gradual decreases associated with increasing humification of newly formed peat. Carbon sequestration rate ranged from a minimum of 14 to a maximum of 72 g m^?2 yr^?1, with the most rapid changes occurring in the past 1000 years. Vegetation transitions were associated with periods of increasing climate wetness during which the hydrological requirement for increased seepage loss was met by rise of the water table closer to the peatland surface, with the indirect result of enhancing peat formation. Gradual decline in C sequestration within each vegetation stage resulted from enhanced litter decay losses from the near‐surface layer. In the first two vegetation stages, peatland development (i.e., increasing surface gradient) and decreasing climate wetness drove a gradual increase in thickness of the unsaturated, near‐surface layer, reducing seepage water loss and peat formation. In the most recent vegetation stage, the surface diverged into a mosaic of wet and dry microsites. Despite a steady increase in climate wetness, C sequestration declined rapidly. The complexity of response to climate change cautions against use of past rates to estimate current or to predict future rates of peatland C sequestration. Understanding interactions among hydrology, surface structure and peat formation are essential to predicting potential feedback on the global C cycle.     

Carbon accumulation of tropical peatlands over millennia: a modeling approach

Tropical peatlands cover an estimated 440 000 km² (~10% of global peatland area) and are significant in the global carbon cycle by storing about 40–90 Gt C in peat. Over the past several decades, tropical peatlands have experienced high rates of deforestation and conversion, which is often associated with lowering the water table and peat burning, releasing large amounts of carbon stored in peat to the atmosphere. We present the first model of long‐term carbon accumulation in tropical peatlands by modifying the Holocene Peat Model (HPM), which has been successfully applied to northern temperate peatlands. Tropical HPM (HPMTrop) is a one‐dimensional, nonlinear, dynamic model with a monthly time step that simulates peat mass remaining in annual peat cohorts over millennia as a balance between monthly vegetation inputs (litter) and monthly decomposition. Key model parameters were based on published data on vegetation characteristics, including net primary production partitioned into leaves, wood, and roots; and initial litter decomposition rates. HPMTrop outputs are generally consistent with field observations from Indonesia. Simulated long‐term carbon accumulation rates for 11 000‐year‐old inland, and 5 000‐year‐old coastal peatlands were about 0.3 and 0.59 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, and the resulting peat carbon stocks at the end of the 11 000‐year and 5 000‐year simulations were 3300 and 2900 Mg C ha^?1, respectively. The simulated carbon loss caused by coastal peat swamp forest conversion into oil palm plantation with periodic burning was 1400 Mg C ha^?1 over 100 years, which is equivalent to ~2900 years of C accumulation in a hectare of coastal peatlands.     

Holocene Carbon Accumulation of Fen Peatlands in Boreal Western Canada: A Complex Ecosystem Response to Climate Variation and Disturbance

Understanding the long-term ecological dynamics of northern peatlands is essential for assessment of the possible responses and feedbacks of these carbon-rich ecosystems to climate change and natural disturbance. I used high-resolution macrofossil and lithological analyses of a fen peatland in western Canada to infer the Holocene developmental history of the peatland, to document the temporal pattern of long-term peat accumulation, and to investigate ecosystems responses to climate changes in terms of species composition and carbon accumulation. The peatland has been dominated by sedges and brown mosses during its 10,000-year history, despite interruption by tephra deposition. Peat accumulation rates vary by more than an order of magnitude and decline from 5500 to 1300 cal BP, resulting in a convex depth–age curve, which contrasts with the carbon accumulation patterns documented for oceanic peatlands. The synthesis of regional data from continental western Canada indicates that fens tend to accumulate more carbon than bogs of the same ages. These data suggest that the carbon sink potential of northern peatlands has varied dramatically in the past, so estimates of the present and projected carbon sink strengths of these peatlands need to take this temporal variation into consideration. Widespread slowdown of peat accumulation over the last 4000 years may have resulted from climate cooling in northern latitudes after the Holocene insolation maximum. The findings indicate that long-term peatland dynamics are modified by many local and regional factors and that gradual environmental change may be capable of triggering abrupt shifts and jumps in ecosystem states.     

Sedge Succession and Peatland Methane Dynamics: A Potential Feedback to Climate Change

Under the warmer climate, predicted for the future, northern peatlands are expected to become drier. This drying will lower the water table and likely result in reduced emissions of methane (CH₄) from these ecosystems. However, the prediction of declining CH₄ fluxes does not consider the potential effects of ecological succession, particularly the invasion of sedges into currently wet sites (open water pools, low lawns). The goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between the presence of sedges in peatlands and CH₄ efflux under natural conditions and under a climate change simulation (drained peatland). Methane fluxes, gross ecosystem production, and dissolved pore water CH₄ concentrations were measured and a vegetation survey was conducted in a natural and drained peatland near St. Charles-de-Bellechasse, Quebec, Canada, in the summer of 2003. Each peatland also had plots where the sedges had been removed by clipping. Sedges were larger, more dominant, and more productive at the drained peatland site. The natural peatland had higher CH₄ fluxes than the drained peatland, indicating that drainage was a significant control on CH₄ flux. Methane flux was higher from plots with sedges than from plots where sedges had been removed at the natural peatland site, whereas the opposite case was observed at the drained peatland site. These results suggest that CH₄ flux was enhanced by sedges at the natural peatland site and attenuated by sedges at the drained peatland site. However, the attenuation of CH₄ flux due to sedges at the drained site was reduced in wetter periods. This finding suggests that CH₄ flux could be decreased in the event of climate warming due to the greater depth to the water table, and that sedges colonizing these areas could further attenuate CH₄ fluxes during dry periods. However, during wet periods, the sedges may cause CH₄ fluxes to be higher than is currently predicted for climate change scenarios.     

The Effects of Peatland Restoration on Water‐Table Depth,Elemental Concentrations,and Vegetation: 10 Years of Changes

We studied the effects of restoration on water‐table depth (WTD), element concentrations of peat and vegetation composition of peatlands drained for forestry in southern Finland. The restoration aimed to return the trajectory of vegetation succession toward that of undisturbed systems through the blockage of ditches and the removal of trees. Permanent plots established on a bog and a fen were sampled 1 year before, and 1, 2, 3, and 10 years after the restoration. The restoration resulted in a long‐term rise of the water‐table in both peatlands. Ten years after restoration, the mineral element concentrations (Ca, K, Mg, Mn, and P) of peat corresponded to those reported from comparable pristine peatlands. In particular, the increase of K and Mn concentrations at both sites suggests the recovery of ecosystem functionality in terms of nutrient cycling between peat and plants. The restoration resulted in the succession of plant communities toward the targeted peatland vegetation of wetter condition at both sites. This was evident from the decreased abundance of species benefiting from drainage and the corresponding increase of peatland species. However, many species typical of pristine peatlands were missing 10 years after restoration. We conclude that the restoration led to a reversal of the effects of drainage in vegetation and studied habitat conditions. However, due to the slow recovery of peatland ecosystems and the possibility that certain failures in the restoration measures may become apparent only after extended time periods, long‐term monitoring is needed to determine whether the goals of restoration will be met.     

Holocene radiative forcing impact of northern peatland carbon accumulation and methane emissions

Throughout the Holocene, northern peatlands have both accumulated carbon and emitted methane. Their impact on climate radiative forcing has been the net of cooling (persistent CO₂ uptake) and warming (persistent CH₄ emission). We evaluated this by developing very simple Holocene peatland carbon flux trajectories, and using these as inputs to a simple atmospheric perturbation model. Flux trajectories are based on estimates of contemporary CH₄ flux (15–50 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹), total accumulated peat C (250–450 Pg C), and peatland initiation dates. The contemporary perturbations to the atmosphere due to northern peatlands are an increase of ∼100 ppbv CH₄ and a decrease of ∼35 ppmv CO₂. The net radiative forcing impact northern peatlands is currently about −0.2 to −0.5 W m⁻² (a cooling). It is likely that peatlands initially caused a net warming of up to +0.1 W m⁻², but have been causing an increasing net cooling for the past 8000–11 000 years. A series of sensitivity simulations indicate that the current radiative forcing impact is determined primarily by the magnitude of the contemporary methane flux and the magnitude of the total C accumulated as peat, and that radiative forcing dynamics during the Holocene depended on flux trajectory, but the overall pattern was similar in all cases.     

Decreased carbon accumulation feedback driven by climate‐induced drying of two southern boreal bogs over recent centuries

Northern boreal peatlands are important ecosystems in modulating global biogeochemical cycles, yet their biological communities and related carbon dynamics are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Despite this, the strength and recent direction of these feedbacks are still unclear. The response of boreal peatlands to climate warming has received relatively little attention compared with other northern peatland types, despite forming a large northern hemisphere‐wide ecosystem. Here, we studied the response of two ombrotrophic boreal peatlands to climate variability over the last c. 200 years for which local meteorological data are available. We used remains from plants and testate amoebae to study historical changes in peatland biological communities. These data were supplemented by peat property (bulk density, carbon and nitrogen content), ¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analyses and were used to infer changes in peatland hydrology and carbon dynamics. In total, six peat cores, three per study site, were studied that represent different microhabitats: low hummock (LH), high lawn and low lawn. The data show a consistent drying trend over recent centuries, represented mainly as a change from wet habitat Sphagnum spp. to dry habitat S. fuscum. Summer temperature and precipitation appeared to be important drivers shaping peatland community and surface moisture conditions. Data from the driest microhabitat studied, LH, revealed a clear and strong negative linear correlation (R² = .5031; p < .001) between carbon accumulation rate and peat surface moisture conditions: under dry conditions, less carbon was accumulated. This suggests that at the dry end of the moisture gradient, availability of water regulates carbon accumulation. It can be further linked to the decreased abundance of mixotrophic testate amoebae under drier conditions (R² = .4207; p < .001). Our study implies that if effective precipitation decreases in the future, the carbon uptake capacity of boreal bogs may be threatened.     

15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地发育及其碳动态

高海拔泥炭地是维护高原气候环境稳定的重要生态系统,由于其兼具高海拔和高寒的特点,对气候变化尤为敏感。若尔盖高原泥炭地是中国高海拔泥炭地集中分布区,碳储量丰富,由于方法学差异及数据缺乏,其碳储量估算仍存在一定程度的不确定性,对长时间尺度碳通量的模拟研究还较为匮乏。因此,以若尔盖高原泥炭地为研究对象,基于若尔盖高原泥炭地每千年的面积变化和碳累积速率重新评估若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量,并利用泥炭分解模型和碳通量重建模型探讨了15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳通量动态。研究结果表明,若尔盖高原泥炭地约从15000年开始发育,发育高峰期在12000-10000年和7000-5000年,泥炭累积速率范围为0.22-1.31 mm/a,平均值为0.56 mm/a;碳累积速率范围为13.4-77.2 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均碳累积速率为33.5 g C m^-2 a^-1,3000年至今碳累积速率最高,7000-6000年是碳累积速率次峰值时期;15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储存量达1.4 Pg（1 Pg=10¹⁵ g）,碳累积输入和碳累积释放分别为5.6 Pg和4.2 Pg;净碳平衡平均值为0.087 Tg（1 Tg=10¹² g）C/a,峰值出现在11000-10000年为0.295 Pg;在6000-2000年若尔盖泥炭地出现微弱碳源,最大值出现在5000-4000年,约为-0.034 Pg,净碳平衡在15000-11000年和4000年至今呈现上升趋势,而10000-4000年整体呈现下降趋势。总体而言,若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量丰富,是青藏高原东部重要的陆地生态系统碳库和碳汇,本研究将为我国高海拔泥炭地碳库保育提供一定的理论和数据支撑。     

北方泥炭地氮素有效性的变化及其对碳汇功能的影响

北方泥炭地是典型的氮限制性生态系统,对全球气候变化及人类活动响应敏感。气候变暖导致内源有效氮增加以及人类活动引起的大量外源氮输入,改变了北方泥炭地氮素有效性,对泥炭地碳氮循环过程及碳汇功能产生了深远影响。本文综述了北方泥炭地碳积累速率和碳汇功能的影响因素,分析了氮沉降、冻融、火烧等因素对北方泥炭地氮素有效性的影响,分别从碳固定和碳排放过程阐述了植物及土壤微生物对氮素有效性变化的响应,并对全球变化影响下泥炭生态系统碳汇功能相关研究进行了展望,以期助力“双碳”目标的实施。     

Stimulation of both photosynthesis and respiration in response to warmer and drier conditions in a boreal peatland ecosystem

Peatland ecosystems have been consistent carbon (C) sinks for millennia, but it has been predicted that exposure to warmer temperatures and drier conditions associated with climate change will shift the balance between ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration providing a positive feedback to atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Our main objective was to determine the sensitivity of ecosystem photosynthesis, respiration and net ecosystem production (NEP) measured by eddy covariance, to variation in temperature and water table depth associated with interannual shifts in weather during 2004–2009. Our study was conducted in a moderately rich treed fen, the most abundant peatland type in western Canada, in a region (northern Alberta) where peatland ecosystems are a significant landscape component. During the study, the average growing season (May–October) water depth declined approximately 38 cm, and temperature [expressed as cumulative growing degree days (GDD, March–October)] varied approximately 370 GDD. Contrary to previous predictions, both ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration showed similar increases in response to warmer and drier conditions. The ecosystem remained a strong net sink for CO₂ with an average NEP (± SD) of 189 ± 47 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The current net CO₂ uptake rates were much higher than C accumulation in peat determined from analyses of the relationship between peat age and cumulative C stock. The balance between C addition to, and total loss from, the top 0–30 cm depth (peat age range 0–70 years) of shallow peat cores averaged 43 ± 12 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The apparent long‐term average rate of net C accumulation in basal peat samples was 19–24 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The difference between current rates of net C uptake and historical rates of peat accumulation is likely a result of vegetation succession and recent increases in tree establishment and productivity.     

Warming impacts on boreal fen CO2 exchange under wet and dry conditions

Northern peatlands form a major soil carbon (C) stock. With climate change, peatland C mineralization is expected to increase, which in turn would accelerate climate change. A particularity of peatlands is the importance of soil aeration, which regulates peatland functioning and likely modulates the responses to warming climate. Our aim is to assess the impacts of warming on a southern boreal and a sub‐arctic sedge fen carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange under two plausible water table regimes: wet and moderately dry. We focused this study on minerotrophic treeless sedge fens, as they are common peatland types at boreal and (sub)arctic areas, which are expected to face the highest rates of climate warming. In addition, fens are expected to respond to environmental changes faster than the nutrient poor bogs. Our study confirmed that CO₂ exchange is more strongly affected by drying than warming. Experimental water level draw‐down (WLD) significantly increased gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. Warming alone had insignificant impacts on the CO₂ exchange components, but when combined with WLD it further increased ecosystem respiration. In the southern fen, CO₂ uptake decreased due to WLD, which was amplified by warming, while at northern fen it remained stable. As a conclusion, our results suggest that a very small difference in the WLD may be decisive, whether the C sink of a fen decreases, or whether the system is able to adapt within its regime and maintain its functions. Moreover, the water table has a role in determining how much the increased temperature impacts the CO₂ exchange.     

Vascular plant‐mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change

Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant‐removal experiment in two Sphagnum‐dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO₂ radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

The disappearance of relict permafrost in boreal north America: Effects on peatland carbon storage and fluxes

Boreal peatlands in Canada have harbored relict permafrost since the Little Ice Age due to the strong insulating properties of peat. Ongoing climate change has triggered widespread degradation of localized permafrost in peatlands across continental Canada. Here, we explore the influence of differing permafrost regimes (bogs with no surface permafrost, localized permafrost features with surface permafrost, and internal lawns representing areas of permafrost degradation) on rates of peat accumulation at the southernmost limit of permafrost in continental Canada. Net organic matter accumulation generally was greater in unfrozen bogs and internal lawns than in the permafrost landforms, suggesting that surface permafrost inhibits peat accumulation and that degradation of surface permafrost stimulates net carbon storage in peatlands. To determine whether differences in substrate quality across permafrost regimes control trace gas emissions to the atmosphere, we used a reciprocal transplant study to experimentally evaluate environmental versus substrate controls on carbon emissions from bog, internal lawn, and permafrost peat. Emissions of CO₂ were highest from peat incubated in the localized permafrost feature, suggesting that slow organic matter accumulation rates are due, at least in part, to rapid decomposition in surface permafrost peat. Emissions of CH₄ were greatest from peat incubated in the internal lawn, regardless of peat type. Localized permafrost features in peatlands represent relict surface permafrost in disequilibrium with the current climate of boreal North America, and therefore are extremely sensitive to ongoing and future climate change. Our results suggest that the loss of surface permafrost in peatlands increases net carbon storage as peat, though in terms of radiative forcing, increased CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere will partially or even completely offset this enhanced peatland carbon sink for at least 70 years following permafrost degradation.     

Modeling Northern Peatland Decomposition and Peat Accumulation

To test the hypothesis that long-term peat accumulation is related to contemporary carbon flux dynamics, we present the Peat Decomposition Model (PDM), a new model of long-term peat accumulation. Decomposition rates of the deeper peat are directly related to observable decomposition rates of fresh vegetation litter. Plant root effects (subsurface oxygenation and fresh litter inputs) are included. PDM considers two vegetation types, vascular and nonvascular, with different decomposition rates and aboveground and belowground litter input rates. We used PDM to investigate the sensitivities of peat accumulation in bogs and fens to productivity, root:shoot ratio, tissue decomposability, root and water table depths, and climate. Warmer and wetter conditions are more conducive to peat accumulation. Bogs are more sensitive than fens to climate conditions. Cooler and drier conditions lead to the lowest peat accumulation when productivity is more temperature sensitive than decomposition rates. We also compare peat age–depth profiles to field data. With a very general parameterization, PDM fen and bog age–depth profiles were similar to data from the the most recent 5000 years at three bog cores and a fen core in eastern Canada, but they overestimated accumulation at three other bog cores in that region. The model cannot reliably predict the amount of fen peat remaining from the first few millennia of a peatland's development. This discrepancy may relate to nonanalogue, early postglacial climatic and nutrient conditions for rich-fen peat accumulation and to the fate of this fen peat material, which is overlain by a bog as the peatland evolves, a common hydroseral succession in northern peatlands. Because PDM sensitivity tests point to these possible factors, we conclude that the static model represents a framework that shows a consistent relationship between contemporary productivity and fresh-tissue decomposition rates and observed long-term peat accumulation. Received 19 June 2000; accepted 24 January 2001.     

Predator–prey mass ratio drives microbial activity under dry conditions in Sphagnum peatlands

Mid‐ to high‐latitude peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon stock but become carbon sources during droughts, which are increasingly frequent as a result of climate warming. A critical question within this context is the sensitivity to drought of peatland microbial food webs. Microbiota drive key ecological and biogeochemical processes, but their response to drought is likely to impact these processes. Peatland food webs have, however, been little studied, especially the response of microbial predators. We studied the response of microbial predators (testate amoebae, ciliates, rotifers, and nematodes) living in Sphagnum moss carpet to droughts, and their influence on lower trophic levels and on related microbial enzyme activity. We assessed the impact of reduced water availability on microbial predators in two peatlands using experimental (Linje mire, Poland) and natural (Forbonnet mire, France) water level gradients, reflecting a sudden change in moisture regime (Linje), and a typically drier environment (Forbonnet). The sensitivity of different microbial groups to drought was size dependent; large sized microbiota such as testate amoebae declined most under dry conditions (?41% in Forbonnet and ?80% in Linje). These shifts caused a decrease in the predator–prey mass ratio (PPMR). We related microbial enzymatic activity to PPMR; we found that a decrease in PPMR can have divergent effects on microbial enzymatic activity. In a community adapted to drier conditions, decreasing PPMR stimulated microbial enzyme activity, while in extreme drought experiment, it reduced microbial activity. These results suggest that microbial enzymatic activity resulting from food web structure is optimal only within a certain range of PPMR, and that different trophic mechanisms are involved in the response of peatlands to droughts. Our findings confirm the importance of large microbial consumers living at the surface of peatlands on the functioning of peatlands, and illustrate their value as early warning indicators of change.