Synergistic Effects of Climate and Fishing in a Marine Ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere. Author Contributions  RRK conceived the project and GB analysed the data. RRK, GB and JAL co-wrote the paper.     

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3‐D coupled physical‐biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate‐change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom‐up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.     

Spawning stock and recruitment in North Sea cod shaped by food and climate

In order to provide better fisheries management and conservation decisions, there is a need to discern the underlying relationship between the spawning stock and recruitment of marine fishes, a relationship which is influenced by the environmental conditions. Here, we demonstrate how the environmental conditions (temperature and the food availability for fish larvae) influence the stock–recruitment relationship and indeed what kind of stock–recruitment relationship we might see under different environmental conditions. Using unique zooplankton data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, we find that food availability (i.e. zooplankton) in essence determines which model applies for the once large North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Further, we show that recruitment is strengthened during cold years and weakened during warm years. Our combined model explained 45 per cent of the total variance in cod recruitment, while the traditional Ricker and Beverton–Holt models only explained about 10 per cent. Specifically, our approach predicts that a full recovery of the North Sea cod stock might not be expected until the environment becomes more favourable.     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life‐history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.     

Plankton dynamics in a tropical floodplain lake: fish, nutrients, and the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down control

1. Two enclosure experiments were carried out in Laguna Bufeos, a neotropical várzea lake located in the floodplain of River Ichilo (Bolivia). The experiments aimed (i) to assess the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down control on the plankton community, (ii) to assess the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of planktivorous fish on the zooplankton, and (iii) to attempt to identify the mechanisms responsible for these effects. 2. During the first experiment, bottom‐up control seemed to dominate the planktonic food web. Compared with fishless enclosures, oxygen concentrations, chlorophyll a levels and the population densities of all cladoceran zooplankton taxa increased in enclosures with fish. Birth rates of Moina minuta, the dominant taxon, were substantially higher in the presence than in the absence of fish, whereas death rates did not differ between treatments. These results are the first to suggest that the positive effects of fish on crustacean zooplankton via effects on nutrient cycling and the enhancement of primary production can compensate for losses because of fish‐related mortality. 3. During the second experiment, the direction of control appeared to vary between trophic levels: the phytoplankton appeared to be bottom‐up controlled whereas the zooplankton was mainly top‐down controlled. Chlorophyll a concentrations were enhanced by both fish and nutrient additions. The majority of the zooplankton taxa were reduced by the presence of fish. Birth rates of most cladoceran taxa did not differ between treatments, whereas death rates were higher in the enclosures with fish than in the fishless enclosures. Bosminopsis deitersi reached higher densities in the presence of fish, probably because of a release from predation by Chaoborus. 4. We convincingly showed strong deviations from trophic cascade‐based expectations, supporting the idea that trophic cascades may be weak in tropical lakes.     

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem‐defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2–5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries’ economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.     

Spatial variability of the plankton trophic interaction in the North Sea: a new feature after the early 1970s

Traditionally, marine ecosystem structure was thought to be bottom‐up controlled. In recent years, a number of studies have highlighted the importance of top‐down regulation. Evidence is accumulating that the type of trophic forcing varies temporally and spatially, and an integrated view – considering the interplay of both types of control – is emerging. Correlations between time series spanning several decades of the abundances of adjacent trophic levels are conventionally used to assess the type of control: bottom‐up if positive or top‐down if this is negative. This approach implies averaging periods which might show time‐varying dynamics and therefore can hide part of this temporal variability. Using spatially referenced plankton information extracted from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, this study addresses the potential dynamic character of the trophic structure at the planktonic level in the North Sea by assessing its variation over both temporal and spatial scales. Our results show that until the early‐1970s a bottom‐up control characterized the base of the food web across the whole North Sea, with diatoms having a positive and homogeneous effect on zooplankton filter‐feeders. Afterwards, different regional trophic dynamics were observed, in particular a negative relationship between total phytoplankton and zooplankton was detected off the west coast of Norway and the Skagerrak as opposed to a positive one in the southern reaches. Our results suggest that after the early 1970s diatoms remained the main food source for zooplankton filter‐feeders east of Orkney–Shetland and off Scotland, while in the east, from the Norwegian Trench to the German Bight, filter‐feeders were mainly sustained by dinoflagellates.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Multi‐decadal and ontogenetic trophic shifts inferred from stable isotope ratios of pinniped teeth

Identifying and characterizing top predators’ use of trophic resources provides important information about animal ecology and their response to changing conditions. Information from sources such as stable isotopes can be used to infer changes in resource use as direct observations in the wild are difficult to obtain, particularly in the marine environment. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values were recovered from the canine teeth of grey seals collected from haul outs in the central North Sea in the 1970/1980s (n = 44) and 2000s (n = 25), spanning a period of marked ecosystem changes in the region. Extracting material deposited during juvenile and adult life‐stages, we reconstructed a multi‐decadal record of δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C variation. Using established correlations between stable isotope ratios and sea bottom temperature we created a proxy for baseline isotopic variability to account for this source of temporal change. We found 1) a significant long‐term decline in juvenile grey seal δ¹⁵N values, suggesting trophic position has decreased over time; 2) a decline in adult δ¹⁵N values and contraction in stable isotopic niche space after the North Sea regime shift, signifying both a decline in trophic position and change in foraging habits over the 20th century; and 3) evidence for dietary segregation between juvenile and adult animals, showing juvenile individuals feeding at a lower trophic position and in more nearshore areas than adults. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of mining archived biological samples to address ecological questions and imply important ontogenetic and long‐term shifts in the feeding ecology of a top predator. Long‐term changes in grey seal trophic dynamics may be partly in response to well documented ecosystem changes in the North Sea. Such indirect monitoring of marine predators may have utility when set in the context of ecosystem assessments where paucity of long‐term monitoring data is prevalent.     

Overfishing and the Replacement of Demersal Finfish by Shellfish: An Example from the English Channel

The worldwide depletion of major fish stocks through intensive industrial fishing is thought to have profoundly altered the trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Here we assess changes in the trophic structure of the English Channel marine ecosystem using a 90-year time-series (1920–2010) of commercial fishery landings. Our analysis was based on estimates of the mean trophic level (mTL) of annual landings and the Fishing-in-Balance index (FiB). Food webs of the Channel ecosystem have been altered, as shown by a significant decline in the mTL of fishery landings whilst increases in the FiB index suggest increased fishing effort and fishery expansion. Large, high trophic level species (e.g. spurdog, cod, ling) have been increasingly replaced by smaller, low trophic level fish (e.g. small spotted catsharks) and invertebrates (e.g. scallops, crabs and lobster). Declining trophic levels in fisheries catches have occurred worldwide, with fish catches progressively being replaced by invertebrates. We argue that a network of fisheries closures would help rebalance the trophic status of the Channel and allow regeneration of marine ecosystems.     

Boosted food web productivity through ocean acidification collapses under warming

Future climate is forecast to drive bottom‐up (resource driven) and top‐down (consumer driven) change to food web dynamics and community structure. Yet, our predictive understanding of these changes is hampered by an over‐reliance on simplified laboratory systems centred on single trophic levels. Using a large mesocosm experiment, we reveal how future ocean acidification and warming modify trophic linkages across a three‐level food web: that is, primary (algae), secondary (herbivorous invertebrates) and tertiary (predatory fish) producers. Both elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature boosted primary production. Under elevated CO₂, the enhanced bottom‐up forcing propagated through all trophic levels. Elevated temperature, however, negated the benefits of elevated CO₂ by stalling secondary production. This imbalance caused secondary producer populations to decline as elevated temperature drove predators to consume their prey more rapidly in the face of higher metabolic demand. Our findings demonstrate how anthropogenic CO₂ can function as a resource that boosts productivity throughout food webs, and how warming can reverse this effect by acting as a stressor to trophic interactions. Understanding the shifting balance between the propagation of resource enrichment and its consumption across trophic levels provides a predictive understanding of future dynamics of stability and collapse in food webs and fisheries production.     

Productivity in the Barents Sea - Response to Recent Climate Variability

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region.     

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input – NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980–2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea‐bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad‐scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).     

Oceanographic coupling across three trophic levels shapes source–sink dynamics in marine metacommunities

A central goal of metapopulation ecology is to determine which subpopulations have the greatest value to the larger metapopulation. That is, where are the ‘sources’ that are most essential to persistence? This question is especially relevant to benthic marine systems, where dispersal and recruitment are greatly affected by oceanographic processes. In a single‐species context, theoretical models typically identify ‘hotspots’ with high recruitment, especially high self‐recruitment, as having the highest value. However, the oceanographic forces affecting larval delivery of a given species may also influence the recruitment of that species’ predators, prey, and competitors.We present evidence from the Virgin Islands and Bahamas that oceanographic forces produce spatial coupling between the recruitment of planktivorous fishes, the recruitment of their predators, and the productivity of their zooplankton prey. We examined the consequences of this type of multi‐trophic coupling using a simple analytical population model and a multispecies numerical simulation model with parameter values based on the Virgin Islands system. In both analyses, strong coupling caused planktivores at the highest recruitment sites to experience higher mortality (a consequence of higher predator densities) but faster growth and higher fecundity (a consequence of higher zooplankton densities) than planktivores at low recruitment sites. As such, the relative strength of oceanographic coupling between the three trophic levels strongly determined whether a particular reef acted as a source or sink. In the simulation model, density‐dependent competition for zooplankton limited overall metapopulation biomass more severely than predation, so oceanographic coupling between planktivore larval supply and zooplankton productivity had a stronger effect on the metapopulation value of a patch. We argue that the potential for such tri‐trophic coupling should be incorporated into future metacommunity models and has considerable implications for the design and evaluation of marine reserves.     

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts'' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.     

Marine fisheries as ecological experiments

There are many examples of ecological theory informing fishery management. Yet fisheries also provide tremendous opportunities to test ecological theory through large-scale, repeated, and well-documented perturbations of natural systems. Although treating fisheries as experiments presents several challenges, few comparable tests exist at the ecosystem scale. Experimental manipulations of fish populations in lakes have been widely used to develop and test ecological theory. Controlled manipulation of fish populations in open marine systems is rarely possible, but fisheries data provide a valuable substitute for such manipulations. To highlight the value of marine fisheries data, we review leading ecological theories that have been empirically tested using such data. For example, density dependence has been examined through meta-analysis of spawning stock and recruitment data to show that compensation (higher population growth) occurs commonly when populations are reduced to low levels, while depensation (the Allee effect) is rare. As populations decline, spatial changes typically involve populations contracting into high-density core habitats while abandoning less productive habitats. Fishing down predators may result in trophic cascades, possibly shifting entire ecosystems into alternate stable states, although alternate states can be maintained by both ecological processes and continued fishing pressure. Conversely, depleting low trophic level groups may affect central-place foragers, although these bottom–up effects rarely appear to impact fish—perhaps because many fish populations have been reduced to the point that they are no longer prey limited. Fisheries provide empirical tests for diversity–stability relations: catch data suggest that more diverse systems recover faster and provide more stable returns than less diverse systems. Fisheries have also provided examples of the tragedy of the commons, as well as counter-examples where common property resources have been managed successfully. We also address two barriers to use of fisheries data to answer ecological questions: differences in terminology for similar concepts and misuse of records of fishery landings (catch data) as a proxy for biomass trends.     

Differential responses of size‐based functional groups to bottom–up and top–down perturbations in pelagic food webs: a meta‐analysis

We performed a meta‐analysis of 31 lake mesocosm experiments to investigate differences in the responses of pelagic food chains and food webs to nutrient enrichment and fish presence. Trophic levels were divided into size‐based functional groups (phytoplankton into highly edible and poorly edible algae, and zooplankton into small herbivores, large herbivores and omnivorous zooplankton) in the food webs. Our meta‐analysis shows that 1) nutrient enrichment has a positive effect on phytoplankton and zooplankton, while fish presence has a positive effect on phytoplankton and a negative effect on zooplankton in the food chains; 2) nutrient enrichment has a positive effect on highly edible algae and small herbivores, but no effect on poorly edible algae, large herbivores and omnivorous zooplankton in the food webs. Planktivorous fish have a positive effect on highly edible algae and small herbivores, a negative effect on large herbivores and omnivorous zooplankton, and no effect on poorly edible algae. Our meta‐analysis confirms that nutrient enrichment and planktivorous fish affect functional groups differentially within trophic levels, revealing important changes in the functioning of food webs. The analysis of fish effects shows the well‐described trophic cascade in the food chain and reveals two trophic cascades in the food web: one transmitted by large herbivores that benefit highly edible phytoplankton, and one transmitted by omnivorous zooplankton that benefit small herbivores. Comparison between the responses of food webs and simple food chains also shows consistent biomass compensation between functional groups within trophic levels.     

Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.