Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.     

Albatrosses Following Fishing Vessels: How Badly Hooked Are They on an Easy Meal?

Fisheries have major impacts on seabirds, both by changing food availability and by causing direct mortality of birds during trawling and longline setting. However, little is known about the nature and the spatial-temporal extent of the interactions between individual birds and vessels. By studying a system in which we had fine-scale data on bird movements and activity, and near real-time information on vessel distribution, we provide new insights on the association of a threatened albatross with fisheries. During early chick-rearing, black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris from two different colonies (separated by only 75 km) showed significant differences in the degree of association with fisheries, despite being nearly equidistant to the Falklands fishing fleet. Most foraging trips from either colony did not bring tracked individuals close to vessels, and proportionally little time and foraging effort was spent near ships. Nevertheless, a few individuals repeatedly visited fishing vessels, which may indicate they specialise on fisheries-linked food sources and so are potentially more vulnerable to bycatch. The evidence suggests that this population has little reliance on fisheries discards at a critical stage of its nesting cycle, and hence measures to limit fisheries waste on the Patagonian shelf that also reduce vessel attractiveness and the risk of incidental mortality, would be of high overall conservation benefit.     

Sexual Segregation in Juvenile New Zealand Sea Lion Foraging Ranges: Implications for Intraspecific Competition,Population Dynamics and Conservation

Sexual segregation (sex differences in spatial organisation and resource use) is observed in a large range of taxa. Investigating causes for sexual segregation is vital for understanding population dynamics and has important conservation implications, as sex differences in foraging ecology may affect vulnerability to area-specific human activities. Although behavioural ecologists have proposed numerous hypotheses for this phenomenon, the underlying causes of sexual segregation are poorly understood. We examined the size-dimorphism and niche divergence hypotheses as potential explanations for sexual segregation in the New Zealand (NZ) sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri), a nationally critical, declining species impacted by trawl fisheries. We used satellite telemetry and linear mixed effects models to investigate sex differences in the foraging ranges of juvenile NZ sea lions. Male trip distances and durations were almost twice as long as female trips, with males foraging over the Auckland Island shelf and in further locations than females. Sex was the most important variable in trip distance, maximum distance travelled from study site, foraging cycle duration and percent time at sea whereas mass and age had small effects on these characteristics. Our findings support the predictions of the niche divergence hypothesis, which suggests that sexual segregation acts to decrease intraspecific resource competition. As a consequence of sexual segregation in foraging ranges, female foraging grounds had proportionally double the overlap with fisheries operations than males. This distribution exposes female juvenile NZ sea lions to a greater risk of resource competition and bycatch from fisheries than males, which can result in higher female mortality. Such sex-biased mortality could impact population dynamics, because female population decline can lead to decreased population fecundity. Thus, effective conservation and management strategies must take into account sex differences in foraging behaviour, as well as differential threat-risk to external impacts such as fisheries bycatch.     

Differences in seasonal survival suggest species‐specific reactions to climate change in two sympatric bat species

Long‐lived animals with a low annual reproductive output need a long time to recover from population crashes and are, thus, likely to face high extinction risk, if the current global environmental change will increase mortality rates. To aid conservation of those species, knowledge on the variability of mortality rates is essential. Unfortunately, however, individual‐based multiyear data sets that are required for that have only rarely been collected for free‐ranging long‐lived mammals. Here, we used a five‐year data set comprising activity data of 1,445 RFID‐tagged individuals of two long‐lived temperate zone bat species, Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii), at their joint hibernaculum. Both species are listed as being of high conservation interest by the European Habitats Directive. Applying mixed‐effects logistic regression, we explored seasonal survival differences in these two species which differ in foraging strategy and phenology. In both species, survival over the first winter of an individual's life was much lower than survival over subsequent winters. Focussing on adults only, seasonal survival patterns were largely consistent with higher winter and lower summer survival but varied in its level across years in both species. Our analyses, furthermore, highlight the importance of species‐specific time periods for survival. Daubenton's bats showed a much stronger difference in survival between the two seasons than Natterer's bats. In one exceptional winter, the population of Natterer's bats crashed, while the survival of Daubenton's bats declined only moderately. While our results confirm the general seasonal survival pattern typical for hibernating mammals with higher winter than summer survival, they also show that this pattern can be reversed under particular conditions. Overall, our study points toward a high importance of specific time periods for population dynamics and suggests species‐, population‐, and age class‐specific responses to global climate change.     

Combined impacts of longline fisheries and climate on the persistence of the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedia amsterdamensis

Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species, climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch, considering climate is of great importance, especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the world's rarest birds, the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis , which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards, we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species' demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However, these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year, suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.     

Commercial fisheries,inter‐colony competition and sea depth affect foraging location of breeding Scopoli's Shearwaters Calonectris diomedea

The distribution of seabirds at sea is influenced by physical, ecological and anthropogenic factors such as sea depth, prey distribution, intra‐specific competition and commerical fishing activities. We quantified the foraging habitat preferences of Scopoli's Shearwater Calonectris diomedea in the Mediterranean Sea. We analysed habitat preferences in relation to a suite of physical and ecological variables including sea depth, net primary production and distance to other colonies (as a proxy of intra‐specific competition). Since the Mediterranean is heavily impacted by commercial fisheries, we also incorporated the distance to fishing harbours in our analyses as a proxy of the availability of discards which are a potential feeding source for Scopoli's Shearwater. Foraging birds preferred shallower waters and avoided areas close to other colonies, thereby reducing interactions with conspecifics. We also found that long‐distance trips were undertaken to areas close to fishing harbours, suggesting that these represented particularly profitable locations to compensate for the greater travelling costs involved. No differences in foraging between the sexes were recorded. This study improves our understanding of the at‐sea distribution and habitat preference of a seabird inhabiting the over‐exploited Mediterranean Sea. Our results support growing evidence that seabirds exhibit complex relationships with commerical fishing activities, which must be considered when planning conservation programmes.     

Genetic divergence between colonies of Flesh-footed Shearwater <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ardenna carneipes</Emphasis> exhibiting different foraging strategies

Increasing evidence suggests foraging segregation as a key mechanism promoting genetic divergence within seabird species. However, testing for a relationship between population genetic structure and foraging movements among seabird colonies can be challenging. Telemetry studies suggest that Flesh-footed Shearwater Ardenna carneipes that breed at Lord Howe Island or New Zealand, versus southwestern Australia or Saint-Paul Island in the Indian Ocean, migrate to different regions (North Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean, respectively) during the non-breeding season, which may inhibit gene flow among colonies. In this study, we sequenced a 858-base pair mitochondrial region and seven nuclear DNA fragments (352–654 bp) for 148 individuals to test genetic differentiation among colonies of Flesh-footed Shearwaters. Strong genetic divergence was detected between Pacific colonies relative to those further West. Molecular analysis of fisheries’ bycatch individuals sampled in the Sea of Japan indicated that individuals from both western and eastern colonies were migrating through this area, and hence the apparent segregation of the non-breeding distribution based on telemetry is invalid and cannot contribute to the population genetic structure among colonies. The genetic divergence among colonies is better explained by philopatry and evidence of differences in foraging strategies during the breeding season, as supported by the observed genetic divergence between Lord Howe Island and New Zealand colonies. We suggest molecular analysis of fisheries’ bycatch individuals as a rigorous method to identify foraging segregation, and we recommend the eastern and western A. carneipes colonies be regarded as different Management Units.     

Molecular provenance analysis for shy and white-capped albatrosses killed by fisheries interactions in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa

Shy and white-capped albatrosses, Thalassarche cauta and T. steadi, respectively, are phenotypically similar and are known to suffer fisheries-related bycatch mortality across their foraging range. Assessments of the extent or scale of impact of bycatch mortality on these species have previously been precluded by difficulties identifying bycatch carcasses to species level. In this study, a fast and simple molecular test based on a single nucleotide polymorphism in mtDNA of shy and white-capped albatrosses was used to determine the species composition of fisheries bycatch carcasses recovered from Australian, New Zealand, and South African waters. The only area where bycatch mortality of both species co-occurred was in Tasmanian waters; in all other zones the bycatch was exclusively comprised of white-capped albatrosses. Genotypic provenance assignment tests of shy albatrosses, a species with significant genetic structure between island colonies, correctly assigned 72% to their island of origin. These data are the first to provide insight into the relative vulnerability of shy and white-capped albatrosses to bycatch mortality across their foraging range, and to establish the vast differences in the at-sea distributions of these two species.     

Combined spatio-temporal impacts of climate and longline fisheries on the survival of a trans-equatorial marine migrant

Predicting the impact of human activities and their derivable consequences, such as global warming or direct wildlife mortality, is increasingly relevant in our changing world. Due to their particular life history traits, long-lived migrants are amongst the most endangered and sensitive group of animals to these harming effects. Our ability to identify and quantify such anthropogenic threats in both breeding and wintering grounds is, therefore, of key importance in the field of conservation biology. Using long-term capture-recapture data (34 years, 4557 individuals) and year-round tracking data (4 years, 100 individuals) of a trans-equatorial migrant, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), we investigated the impact of longline fisheries and climatic variables in both breeding and wintering areas on the most important demographic trait of this seabird, i.e. adult survival. Annual adult survival probability was estimated at 0.914±0.022 on average, declining throughout 1978-1999 but recovering during the last decade (2005-2011). Our results suggest that both the incidental bycatch associated with longline fisheries and high sea surface temperatures (indirectly linked to food availability; SST) increased mortality rates during the long breeding season (March-October). Shearwater survival was also negatively affected during the short non-breeding season (December-February) by positive episodes of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Indirect negative effects of climate at both breeding (SST) and wintering grounds (SOI) had a greater impact on survival than longliner activity, and indeed these climatic factors are those which are expected to present more unfavourable trends in the future. Our work underlines the importance of considering both breeding and wintering habitats as well as precise schedules/phenology when assessing the global role of the local impacts on the dynamics of migratory species.     

Conservation Hotspots for the Turtles on the High Seas of the Atlantic Ocean

Understanding the distribution of bycaught sea turtles could inform conservation strategies and priorities. This research analyses the distribution of turtles caught as longline fisheries bycatch on the high seas of the Atlantic Ocean. This research collected 18,142 bycatch observations and 47.1 million hooks from large-scale Taiwanese longline vessels in the Atlantic Ocean from June 2002 to December 2013. The coverage rates were ranged from 0.48% to 17.54% by year. Seven hundred and sixty-seven turtles were caught, and the major species were leatherback (59.8%), olive ridley (27.1%) and loggerhead turtles (8.7%). Most olive ridley (81.7%) and loggerhead (82.1%) turtles were hooked, while the leatherbacks were both hooked (44.0%) and entangled (31.8%). Depending on the species, 21.4% to 57.7% were dead when brought onboard. Most of the turtles were caught in tropical areas, especially in the Gulf of Guinea (15°N-10°S, 30°W-10°E), but loggerheads were caught in the south Atlantic Ocean (25°S-35°S, 40°W-10°E and 30°S-40°S, 55°W-45°W). The bycatch rate was the highest at 0.030 per 1000 hooks for leatherbacks in the tropical area. The bycatch rates of olive ridley ranged from 0 to 0.010 per thousand hooks. The loggerhead bycatch rates were higher in the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean and ranged from 0.0128 to 0.0239 per thousand hooks. Due to the characteristics of the Taiwanese deep-set longline fleet, bycatch rates were lower than those of coastal longline fisheries, but mortality rates were higher because of the long hours of operation. Gear and bait modification should be considered to reduce sea turtle bycatch and increase survival rates while reducing the use of shallow hooks would also be helpful.     

Longline Fisheries and Foraging Distribution of Flesh-Footed Shearwaters in Eastern Australia

ABSTRACT Incidental seabird mortality associated with bycatch during longline commercial fishing is a conservation concern. An initial step to estimating likelihood of seabird bycatch and conceiving conservation strategies is determining amount of overlap between foraging birds and commercial fishing effort, identifying oceanographic features associated with foraging birds, and quantifying dive characteristics. We tracked 24 adult flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) breeding on Lord Howe Island located east of Australia during incubation and early and late chick-rearing periods from 6 January to 17 April 2005. At-sea foraging distribution of flesh-footed shearwaters was primarily confined within the jurisdictional Australian Fishing Zone. Foraging was strongly associated with sea-surface temperature >24°C. Spatial and temporal overlap of longline fishing with foraging shearwaters varied throughout the breeding season, but was greatest (63% overlap) during early chick-rearing. Mean maximum distance reached from the breeding colony during a foraging event was 804 km (SD = 280) from Lord Howe Island. Foraging behavior was strongly diurnal, with 91% of dives occurring during daylight, and most dives (77%) were <5 m. Given that longline fishing and flesh-footed shearwaters overlap substantially, the Australian Fisheries Management Authority should consider implementing additional regulations to further reduce bycatch. Conservation strategies such as setting longlines at nights may reduce flesh-footed shearwater bycatch.     

Quantifying the effects of fisheries on threatened species: the impact of pelagic longlines on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles

The depletion of fish stocks from global fisheries has been a long‐standing concern. More recently, incidental catch of non‐target (termed bycatch) vertebrates also has been proposed as a serious conservation issue. Here we present a bycatch assessment for loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles that are incidentally caught by global pelagic longlines. We integrate catch data from over 40 nations and bycatch data from 13 international observer programmes. Despite infrequent rates of encounter, our analyses show that more than 200 000 loggerheads and 50 000 leatherbacks were likely taken as pelagic longline bycatch in 2000. Our analyses suggest that thousands of these turtles die each year from longline gear in the Pacific Ocean alone. Given 80–95% declines for Pacific loggerhead and leatherback populations over the last 20 years, this bycatch level is not sustainable. Adopting a large‐scale, synthetic approach is critical to accurately characterize the influence of global fisheries bycatch on globally distributed and imperilled pelagic vertebrates.     

Predicting bycatch hotspots for endangered leatherback turtles on longlines in the Pacific Ocean

Fisheries bycatch is a critical source of mortality for rapidly declining populations of leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea. We integrated use-intensity distributions for 135 satellite-tracked adult turtles with longline fishing effort to estimate predicted bycatch risk over space and time in the Pacific Ocean. Areas of predicted bycatch risk did not overlap for eastern and western Pacific nesting populations, warranting their consideration as distinct management units with respect to fisheries bycatch. For western Pacific nesting populations, we identified several areas of high risk in the north and central Pacific, but greatest risk was adjacent to primary nesting beaches in tropical seas of Indo-Pacific islands, largely confined to several exclusive economic zones under the jurisdiction of national authorities. For eastern Pacific nesting populations, we identified moderate risk associated with migrations to nesting beaches, but the greatest risk was in the South Pacific Gyre, a broad pelagic zone outside national waters where management is currently lacking and may prove difficult to implement. Efforts should focus on these predicted hotspots to develop more targeted management approaches to alleviate leatherback bycatch.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Using population viability analysis to examine the potential long-term impact of fisheries bycatch on protected species

Fisheries bycatch is recognised as the dominant anthropogenic threat facing many protected species globally. Estimates of total bycatch are often associated with wide confidence intervals as a result of limited coverage by on-board observers. This makes it difficult for managers to assess risk and design effective management plans. Here, we present a case study of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) bycatch in static net fisheries across Irish waters, where potentially unsustainable bycatch levels have been reported with typically wide confidence intervals. We used Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to explore potential bycatch scenarios at a national level in order to inform future monitoring and management efforts; including (i) a baseline scenario where the probability of seals becoming bycaught was independent of age and sex; (ii) probability was biased towards juvenile, male, or female seals; (iii) there was net immigration of seals from outside of the national population; and (iv) colony-specific bycatch rates were applied to assess the relative vulnerability of the major grey seal breeding colonies to bycatch mortality. Results demonstrated that (i) higher levels of bycatch reduced population growth, with bycatch of 800 seals per year reducing the national population by 99% over 100 years; (ii) population viability was most sensitive to bycatch mortality of female seals, and more robust to juvenile or male mortality; (iii) recruitment of 500 seals per year prevented population decline despite a worst-case bycatch scenario of 800 seals bycaught per year; (iv) colonies in the south and southwest were the first to show signs of decline under increasing bycatch pressure. PVA provides a clear justification for improved monitoring of seal bycatch to obtain more precise bycatch estimates, and highlights the need for future studies to identify appropriate grey seal management units.     

Dynamic habitat models: using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch

Fisheries bycatch is a recognized threat to marine megafauna. Addressing bycatch of pelagic species however is challenging owing to the dynamic nature of marine environments and vagility of these organisms. In order to assess the potential for species to overlap with fisheries, we propose applying dynamic habitat models to determine relative probabilities of species occurrence for specific oceanographic conditions. We demonstrate this approach by modelling habitats for Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) using telemetry data and relating their occurrence probabilities to observations of Hawaii-based longline fisheries in 1997-2000. We found that modelled habitat preference probabilities of black-footed albatrosses were high within some areas of the fishing range of the Hawaiian fleet and such preferences were important in explaining bycatch occurrence. Conversely, modelled habitats of Laysan albatrosses overlapped little with Hawaii-based longline fisheries and did little to explain the bycatch of this species. Estimated patterns of albatross habitat overlap with the Hawaiian fleet corresponded to bycatch observations: black-footed albatrosses were more frequently caught in this fishery despite being 10 times less abundant than Laysan albatrosses. This case study demonstrates that dynamic habitat models based on telemetry data may help to project interactions with pelagic animals relative to environmental features and that such an approach can serve as a tool to guide conservation and management decisions.     

Diving behaviour of white-chinned petrels and its relevance for mitigating longline bycatch

The white-chinned petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis) is the seabird species most commonly killed by Southern Hemisphere longline fisheries. Despite the importance of diving ability for mitigating longline bycatch, little is known of this species’ diving behaviour. We obtained data from temperature–depth recorders from nine white-chinned petrels breeding on Marion Island, southwestern Indian Ocean, during the late incubation and chick-rearing period. Maximum dive depth (16 m) was slightly deeper than the previous estimate (13 m), but varied considerably among individuals (range 2–16 m). Males dived deeper than females, and birds feeding chicks dived deeper than incubating birds, but dive rate did not differ between the sexes. Time of day had no significant effect on dive depth or rate. Our findings will help to improve the design and performance of mitigation measures aimed at reducing seabird bycatch in longline fisheries, such as the calculation of minimum line sink rates and optimum aerial coverage of bird-scaring lines.     

Technical mitigation to reduce marine mammal bycatch and entanglement in commercial fishing gear: lessons learnt and future directions

Fisheries bycatch is one of the biggest threats to marine mammal populations. A literature review was undertaken to provide a comprehensive assessment and synopsis of gear modifications and technical devices to reduce marine mammal bycatch in commercial trawl, purse seine, longline, gillnet and pot/trap fisheries. Successfully implemented mitigation measures include acoustic deterrent devices (pingers) which reduced the bycatch of some small cetacean species in gillnets, appropriately designed exclusion devices which reduced pinniped bycatch in some trawl fisheries, and various pot/trap guard designs that reduced marine mammal entrapment. However, substantial development and research of mitigation options is required to address the bycatch of a range of species in many fisheries. No reliably effective technical solutions to reduce small cetacean bycatch in trawl nets are available, although loud pingers have shown potential. There are currently no technical options that effectively reduce marine mammal interactions in longline fisheries, although development of catch and hook protection devices is promising. Solutions are also needed for species, particularly pinnipeds and small cetaceans, that are not deterred by pingers and continue to be caught in static gillnets. Large whale entanglements in static gear, particularly buoy lines for pots/traps, needs urgent attention although there is encouraging research on rope-less pot/trap systems and identification of rope colours that are more detectable to whale species. Future mitigation development and deployment requires rigorous scientific testing to determine if significant bycatch reduction has been achieved, as well as consideration of potentially conflicting mitigation outcomes if multiple species are impacted by a fishery.

     

东南太平洋金枪鱼延绳钓主要渔获种类垂直分布

研究延绳钓渔获物的垂直分布特征,可以帮助人们制定有效措施减少兼捕鱼种的渔获率,更好地了解大洋生态系统结构,并为基于生态系统的渔业管理提供参考.本研究根据2013年9月-2014年1月我国金枪鱼科学观察员在东南太平洋采集的延绳钓钩位深度数据和主要渔获种类的钓获钩位数据,分析了各钩位的上浮率和钓获鱼种的垂直分布,比较了不同鱼种垂直分布的差异.结果表明: 钓钩相对上浮率变化范围为8.9%～17.1%,平均相对上浮率为13.5%;14种渔获物钓获深度范围差异较大,斑点月鱼的平均钓获深度最深,鲣鱼最浅;除黄鳍金枪鱼和条纹四鳍旗鱼外,其他兼捕鱼种钓获深度均与长鳍金枪鱼(目标鱼种)具有显著性差异.
     

Signals of large scale climate drivers,hatchery enhancement,and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co‐occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage‐structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density‐dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age‐specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production.