Phenological overlap of interacting species in a changing climate: an assessment of available approaches

Concern regarding the biological effects of climate change has led to a recent surge in research to understand the consequences of phenological change for species interactions. This rapidly expanding research program is centered on three lines of inquiry: (1) how the phenological overlap of interacting species is changing, (2) why the phenological overlap of interacting species is changing, and (3) how the phenological overlap of interacting species will change under future climate scenarios. We synthesize the widely disparate approaches currently being used to investigate these questions: (1) interpretation of long‐term phenological data, (2) field observations, (3) experimental manipulations, (4) simulations and nonmechanistic models, and (5) mechanistic models. We present a conceptual framework for selecting approaches that are best matched to the question of interest. We weigh the merits and limitations of each approach, survey the recent literature from diverse systems to quantify their use, and characterize the types of interactions being studied by each of them. We highlight the value of combining approaches and the importance of long‐term data for establishing a baseline of phenological synchrony. Future work that scales up from pairwise species interactions to communities and ecosystems, emphasizing the use of predictive approaches, will be particularly valuable for reaching a broader understanding of the complex effects of climate change on the phenological overlap of interacting species. It will also be important to study a broader range of interactions: to date, most of the research on climate‐induced phenological shifts has focused on terrestrial pairwise resource–consumer interactions, especially those between plants and insects.     

Multiple Quantitative Trait Analysis Using Bayesian Networks

Models for genome-wide prediction and association studies usually target a single phenotypic trait. However, in animal and plant genetics it is common to record information on multiple phenotypes for each individual that will be genotyped. Modeling traits individually disregards the fact that they are most likely associated due to pleiotropy and shared biological basis, thus providing only a partial, confounded view of genetic effects and phenotypic interactions. In this article we use data from a Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross (MAGIC) winter wheat population to explore Bayesian networks as a convenient and interpretable framework for the simultaneous modeling of multiple quantitative traits. We show that they are equivalent to multivariate genetic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and that they are competitive with single-trait elastic net and single-trait GBLUP in predictive performance. Finally, we discuss their relationship with other additive-effects models and their advantages in inference and interpretation. MAGIC populations provide an ideal setting for this kind of investigation because the very low population structure and large sample size result in predictive models with good power and limited confounding due to relatedness.     

A combinatorial score to distinguish biological and nonbiological protein-protein interfaces

With the large amount of protein-protein complex structural data available, to understand the key features governing the specificity of protein-protein recognition and to define a suitable scoring function for protein-protein interaction predictions, we have analyzed the protein interfaces from geometric and energetic points of view. Atom-based potential of mean force (PMFScore), packing density, contact size, and geometric complementarity are calculated for crystal contacts in 74 homodimers and 91 monomers, which include real biological interactions in dimers and nonbiological contacts in monomers and dimers. Simple cutoffs were developed for single and combinatorial parameters to distinguish biological and nonbiological contacts. The results show that PMFScore is a better discriminator between biological and nonbiological interfaces comparable in size. The combination of PMFScore and contact size is the most powerful pairwise discriminator. A combinatorial score (CFPScore) based on the four parameters was developed, which gives the success rate of the homodimer discrimination of 96.6% and error rate of the monomer discrimination of 6.0% and 19.8% according to Valdar's and our definition, respectively. Compared with other statistical learning models, the cutoffs for the four parameters and their combinations are directly based on physical models, simple, and can be easily applied to protein-protein interface analysis and docking studies.     

From protein networks to biological systems

A system-level understanding of any biological process requires a map of the relationships among the various molecules involved. Technologies to detect and predict protein interactions have begun to produce very large maps of protein interactions, some including most of an organism's proteins. These maps can be used to study how proteins work together to form molecular machines and regulatory pathways. They also provide a framework for constructing predictive models of how information and energy flow through biological networks. In many respects, protein interaction maps are an entrée into systems biology.     

Testing effects of consumer richness, evenness and body size on ecosystem functioning

1.?Numerous studies have revealed (usually positive) relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (B-EF), but the underpinning drivers are rarely addressed explicitly, hindering the development of a more predictive understanding. 2.?We developed a suite of statistical models (where we combined existing models with novel ones) to test for richness and evenness effects on detrital processing in freshwater microcosms. Instead of using consumer species as biodiversity units, we used two size classes within three species (six types). This allowed us to test for diversity effects and also to focus on the role of body size and biomass. 3.?Our statistical models tested for (i) whether performance in polyculture was more than the sum of its parts (non-additive effects), (ii) the effects of specific type combinations (assemblage identity effects) and (iii) whether types behaved differently when their absolute or relative abundances were altered (e.g. because type abundance in polyculture was lower compared with monoculture). The latter point meant we did not need additional density treatments. 4.?Process rates were independent of richness and evenness and all types performed in an additive fashion. The performance of a type was mainly driven by the consumers' metabolic requirements (connected to body size). On an assemblage level, biomass explained a large proportion of detrital processing rates. 5.?We conclude that B-EF studies would benefit from widening their statistical approaches. Further, they need to consider biomass of species assemblages and whether biomass is comprised of small or large individuals, because even if all species are present in the same biomass, small species (or individuals) will perform better.     

Seeing tissue as a 'phase of matter': exploring statistical mechanics for the cell

The field of tissue engineering aims to produce living, biological constructs which possess the appropriate spatial ordering of cells and their extra cellular matrix products. The complexity of a single cell and its interactions in a large collective have made development of useful models to assist in tissue culture difficult, and consequentially most tissue culture endeavors are limited to trial and error approaches. Some cell types display a natural tendency to spontaneously self-assemble into large domains of parallel-oriented cells. In this work, we show that these cell culture systems can be studied in the context of continuous disorder-order phase transformations. We suggest that collective ordering of the cells is controlled by the amount of noise in the walk of the individual cells (directional persistence) because undifferentiated mesenchymal stem cells display a seven-times higher directional persistence than mature fibroblasts and have a 24-times larger final-oriented domain size, an observation that corresponds with collective ordering in self-propelled particle systems. The study of cell culture systems using analogies derived from statistical mechanics yields simple, practical models offering insight into how a long-range order can be obtained in tissue-engineered constructs, providing a new paradigm for managing operations with large collectives of living cells.     

How structure determines correlations in neuronal networks

Networks are becoming a ubiquitous metaphor for the understanding of complex biological systems, spanning the range between molecular signalling pathways, neural networks in the brain, and interacting species in a food web. In many models, we face an intricate interplay between the topology of the network and the dynamics of the system, which is generally very hard to disentangle. A dynamical feature that has been subject of intense research in various fields are correlations between the noisy activity of nodes in a network. We consider a class of systems, where discrete signals are sent along the links of the network. Such systems are of particular relevance in neuroscience, because they provide models for networks of neurons that use action potentials for communication. We study correlations in dynamic networks with arbitrary topology, assuming linear pulse coupling. With our novel approach, we are able to understand in detail how specific structural motifs affect pairwise correlations. Based on a power series decomposition of the covariance matrix, we describe the conditions under which very indirect interactions will have a pronounced effect on correlations and population dynamics. In random networks, we find that indirect interactions may lead to a broad distribution of activation levels with low average but highly variable correlations. This phenomenon is even more pronounced in networks with distance dependent connectivity. In contrast, networks with highly connected hubs or patchy connections often exhibit strong average correlations. Our results are particularly relevant in view of new experimental techniques that enable the parallel recording of spiking activity from a large number of neurons, an appropriate interpretation of which is hampered by the currently limited understanding of structure-dynamics relations in complex networks.     

Test for a population expansion after a drastic reduction in population size using DNA sequence data

Populations may, during their evolutionary history, go through drastic changes in population size due to bottlenecks or founder events upon colonization of new areas. This involves a subsample of haplotypes, causing the allele frequencies to be different from the original population. In addition, the period of recovery after a bottleneck can be of considerable length. If reproduction is unequal among individuals but random with regard to haplotype, large deviations from the patterns expected in a stable population may result. By means of computer simulation, I have analysed the patterns arising when populations undergo bottlenecks and then slowly recover, and used two new statistical tests for the detection of the bottleneck. A test based on the variance of the relative frequency of haplotypes had generally high power even at low sample size (n=25). This statistic was most powerful after very strong bottlenecks and lost power with increasing propagule size. A test based on the variance of the pairwise differences shows slightly less power. As expected, power was reduced when migration into the founder population was allowed from the source population. This suggests that the test is particularly suited for detecting relatively recent and strong bottlenecks, and thus may be a valuable tool for identifying population events on a fine temporal scale, such as colonisations after the last glaciation.     

Finding the “Dark Matter” in Human and Yeast Protein Network Prediction and Modelling

Accurate modelling of biological systems requires a deeper and more complete knowledge about the molecular components and their functional associations than we currently have. Traditionally, new knowledge on protein associations generated by experiments has played a central role in systems modelling, in contrast to generally less trusted bio-computational predictions. However, we will not achieve realistic modelling of complex molecular systems if the current experimental designs lead to biased screenings of real protein networks and leave large, functionally important areas poorly characterised. To assess the likelihood of this, we have built comprehensive network models of the yeast and human proteomes by using a meta-statistical integration of diverse computationally predicted protein association datasets. We have compared these predicted networks against combined experimental datasets from seven biological resources at different level of statistical significance. These eukaryotic predicted networks resemble all the topological and noise features of the experimentally inferred networks in both species, and we also show that this observation is not due to random behaviour. In addition, the topology of the predicted networks contains information on true protein associations, beyond the constitutive first order binary predictions. We also observe that most of the reliable predicted protein associations are experimentally uncharacterised in our models, constituting the hidden or “dark matter” of networks by analogy to astronomical systems. Some of this dark matter shows enrichment of particular functions and contains key functional elements of protein networks, such as hubs associated with important functional areas like the regulation of Ras protein signal transduction in human cells. Thus, characterising this large and functionally important dark matter, elusive to established experimental designs, may be crucial for modelling biological systems. In any case, these predictions provide a valuable guide to these experimentally elusive regions.     

An analysis of the analysis of herbivore population dynamics

Time series analysis of herbivore data with weather included as covariate is commonly used as a mean to shed light on the state and ecology of the studied population. Conclusions about the herbivore population are drawn from statistical parameter values and presence/absence in the most parsimonious model. However, this procedure is only reliable if the statistical parameters have general interpretations regardless of system characteristics. Here we investigated the extent to which this is true by deriving six different vegetation–herbivore-systems and analyzing their respective statistical parameters. The analysis was done in both continuous and discrete time. It turned out that both density parameters (a₁ and a₂) and rainfall coefficients change with biological interactions and amount of average rainfall, and they do so in different ways in different systems. This means that there is no valid general interpretation of them and, most important, the probability of detecting density dependence and effects of rainfall vary between systems. Hence, you can not make inference about the biological processes from statistical analysis without knowing the system that you study and what model best describes the interactions within it.     

Efficient modeling, simulation and coarse-graining of biological complexity with NFsim

Managing the overwhelming numbers of molecular states and interactions is a fundamental obstacle to building predictive models of biological systems. Here we introduce the Network-Free Stochastic Simulator (NFsim), a general-purpose modeling platform that overcomes the combinatorial nature of molecular interactions. Unlike standard simulators that represent molecular species as variables in equations, NFsim uses a biologically intuitive representation: objects with binding and modification sites acted on by reaction rules. During simulations, rules operate directly on molecular objects to produce exact stochastic results with performance that scales independently of the reaction network size. Reaction rates can be defined as arbitrary functions of molecular states to provide powerful coarse-graining capabilities, for example to merge Boolean and kinetic representations of biological networks. NFsim enables researchers to simulate many biological systems that were previously inaccessible to general-purpose software, as we illustrate with models of immune system signaling, microbial signaling, cytoskeletal assembly and oscillating gene expression.     

Effects of amino acid composition, finite size of proteins, and sparse statistics on distance-dependent statistical pair potentials

Statistical distance dependent pair potentials are frequently used in a variety of folding, threading, and modeling studies of proteins. The applicability of these types of potentials is tightly connected to the reliability of statistical observations. We explored the possible origin and extent of false positive signals in statistical potentials by analyzing their distance dependence in a variety of randomized protein-like models. While on average potentials derived from such models are expected to equal zero at any distance, we demonstrate that systematic and significant distortions exist. These distortions originate from the limited statistical counts in local environments of proteins and from the limited size of protein structures at large distances. We suggest that these systematic errors in statistical potentials are connected to the dependence of amino acid composition on protein size and to variation in protein sizes. Additionally, atom-based potentials are dominated by a false positive signal that is due to correlation among distances measured from atoms of one residue to atoms of another residue. The significance of residue-based pairwise potentials at various spatial pair separations was assessed in this study and it was found that as few as approximately 50% of potential values were statistically significant at distances below 4 A, and only at most approximately 80% of them were significant at larger pair separations. A new definition for reference state, free of the observed systematic errors, is suggested. It has been demonstrated to generate statistical potentials that compare favorably to other publicly available ones.     

Systematic identifiability testing for unambiguous mechanistic modeling – application to JAK-STAT,MAP kinase,and NF-κB signaling pathway models

Background  

When creating mechanistic mathematical models for biological signaling processes it is tempting to include as many known biochemical interactions into one large model as possible. For the JAK-STAT, MAP kinase, and NF-κB pathways a lot of biological insight is available, and as a consequence, large mathematical models have emerged. For large models the question arises whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined by parameter estimation from measured data. Systematic approaches to answering this question are indispensable since the uniqueness of model parameter values is essential for predictive mechanistic modeling.