Regulation of reproduction rate in a cyclic population of the red-backed vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae

Changes of the components of reproduction were analyzed quantitatively in a two-year cyclic population (which has two peaks in alternate years during a five-year census) of the red-backed vole, Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae, with reference to its regulatory mechanism: (1) Variation in sex ratios was not associated with population phase or density, although a higher percentage of females in mature individuals was observed in the increase phase. (2) Females attained to sexual maturity at younger age and at lighter body weight than did males. All the youngest mature individuals were found in the low and the increase phases. Age and size at maturity became older and larger as the population went toward the peak phase. (3) Maturation rate was strongly associated with population phase and density; this component is an important and good parameter to predict population trend. Maturation rates were in the order, the low phase>the increase phase>the peak phase>the decline phase; the differences in the rates among these phases were significant. Maturation rate was somewhat depressed when the population density exceeded about 40 individuals/ha. Changes in age at maturity and in maturation rate are interpreted as derivative phenomena related to the population density and the capacity of the number of mature voles per unit area. (4) The maximum number of mature individuals were 26 males/ha and 29 females/ha; there was almost no increase of the number of mature voles at higher population densities over about 40 individuals/ha. The number of exclusive home ranges per hectare calculated from the observed range lengths did not differ much from the maximum number of mature voles of either sex. (5) Length of breeding period was shorter in the high-density years than in the low-density years; the breeding started earlier and ended earlier in the former than that in the latter. In the increase phase a few voles reproduced in winter. (6) The percentage of pregnant females was significantly lower in the peak phase than those in the other phases.     

Competition, predation and interspecific synchrony in cyclic small mammal communities

Although competition and predation are considered to be among the most important biotic processes influencing the distribution and abundance of species in space and time, the relative and interactive roles of these processes in communities comprised of cyclically fluctuating populations of small mammals are not well known. We examined these processes in and among populations of field voles, sibling voles, bank voles and common shrews in western Finland, using spatially replicated trapping data collected four times a year during two vole cycles (1987–1990 and 1997–1999). Populations of the four species exhibited relatively strong interspecific temporal synchrony in their multiannual fluctuations. During peak phases, we observed slight deviations from close temporal synchrony: field vole densities peaked at least two months earlier than those of either sibling voles or bank voles, while densities of common shrews peaked even earlier. The growth rates of all four coexisting small mammal species were best explained by their own current densities. The growth rate of bank vole populations was negatively related to increasing densities of field voles in the increase phase of the vole cycle. Apart from this, no negative effects of interspecific density, direct or delayed, were observed among the vole species. The growth rates of common shrew populations were negatively related to increasing total rodent (including water voles and harvest mice) densities in the peak phase of the vole cycle. Sibling voles appeared not to be competitively superior to field voles on a population level, as neither of these Microtus voles increased disproportionately in abundance as total rodent density increased. We suggest that interspecific competition among the vole species may occur, but only briefly, during the autumn of peak years, when the total available amount of rodent habitat becomes markedly reduced following agricultural practices. Our results nonetheless indicate that interspecific competition is not a strong determinant of the structure of communities comprised of species exhibiting cyclic dynamics. We suggest that external factors, namely predation and shortage of food, limit densities of vole populations below levels where interspecific competition occurs. Common shrews, however, appear to suffer from asymmetric space competition with rodents at peak densities of voles; this may be viewed as a synchronizing effect.     

Changes in individual quality during a 3-year population cycle of voles

In small mammal populations with multiannual oscillations in density, the occurrence of large individuals in the peak phase (the "Chitty effect") is a typical feature, but mechanisms behind this phenomenon have remained unclear. We analysed long-term data sets collected in western Finland between 1984 and 1992 to: (1) find out how the body size and body condition of voles (Microtus agrestis, M. rossiaemeridionalis, Clethrionomys glareolus) and shrews (Sorex araneus) was associated with the 3-year population cycle of voles, and (2) relate the quality (body condition) of the individuals to changes in the biotic environment in order to detect how the different hypotheses about the mechanisms behind the Chitty effect can explain the observed variation. In the 3-year cycle studied, the mean body size and quality were strongly related to density oscillations in voles but not in sympatric shrews. Voles were lean in the decline phase but very stocky in the summer of the peak phase. This pattern appeared to be mainly caused by changes in body condition or body shape rather than mere size (body length). The quality of voles appeared to be delayed density dependent, especially in autumn when the dominant time lag was 12 months. Previous vole density was strongly related to changes in the environment (activity of specialist predators, production of hay until early summer). We suggest that the previous density of voles mainly affects the quality of voles indirectly through changes in the biotic environment, and that the proximate cause behind the Chitty effect is the combined effect of changes in predation pressure and availability of food.     

Phase dependence in winter physiological condition of cyclic voles

Lack of food resources has been suggested as a factor which limits the growth of cyclic vole populations. During peak phases of the cycle, vole population growth typically ceases during late autumn or early winter, and is followed by a decrease in density over the winter. To investigate whether this decrease is due to increased mortality induced by a depletion of food resources, we studied overwinter food consumption and physiological condition of field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) in western Finland in both an increase and a decrease phase of a three-year population cycle. The growth rate of vole populations was negatively related both to prevailing vole densities and to densities six months earlier. The condition index of voles, as well as their blood levels of haematocrit, proteins, free fatty acids and immunoglobulin G, were positively related to population growth rate when populations were declining. When populations were increasing, these parameters tended to be negatively related to population growth rate. The overall physiological condition of voles was lower in the winter of the decrease phase as compared to the increase phase. The return rate of voles, a proxy of survival, was also lower in the decrease than in the increase phase of the cycle and positively related to haematocrit levels. Almost 90% of all green vegetation shoots were consumed by voles during the winter of the decrease phase while only two thirds were eaten in the increase phase. Our results suggest that the winter decrease phase of cyclic vole populations is associated with both a deterioration in the physiological condition of voles and a significant depletion of winter food resources. This implies that malnutrition induces poor physiological condition in voles, which in turn may increase mortality either directly through starvation or indirectly through increased susceptibility to predators and pathogens.     

Fluctuating food supply affects the clutch size of Tengmalm's owl independent of laying date

Summary In western Finland, yearly median laying dates of Tengmalm's owls varied from 14 March to 27 April during 1973–1989 and were negatively correlated with the winter densities of voles. Yearly mean clutch sizes varied from 4.0 to 6.7 and were more closely related to the spring than to the winter densities of voles. The yearly mean clutch size decreased with yearly median laying date. The 3-year vole population cycle is typical of the study area. The start of egg-laying was earliest in the peak phase of the cycle (median laying date 22 March), when vole numbers are high during egg-laying, but decline rapidly to low numbers in the next autumn or winter. In the increase phase (1 April) vole abundances are moderate at the time of laying, but increase to a peak in the next autumn or winter. In the low phase (15 April) voles are scarce in spring and in the preceding winter, starting to increase in late summer. Clutch size and female body mass were independent of laying date in the low phase, decreased slowly but significantly in the increase phase, and declined abruptly in the peak phase. These trends also held when the effects of territory quality, female age and male age were ruled out. When comparing the same laying periods, clutch sizes were significantly larger in the increase than in other phases of the cycle, but there was no difference between the peak and low phases. Supplementary feeding prior to and during egg-laying increased clutch size independent of laying date. These results agreed with the income model (the rate of energy supply during laying determines clutch size). Tengmalm's owls invest most in a clutch in the increase phase, as the reproductive value of eggs is largest because of high survival of yearlings. A high reproductive effort may be adaptive during this phase, because the availability of voles is predictable during the laying period.     

Changes in population structure and reproduction during a 3-yr population cycle of voles

Cyclic changes in population growth rate are caused by changes in survival and/or reproductive rate. To find out whether cyclic changes in reproduction are an important part of the mechanism causing cyclic fluctuations in small mammal populations, we studied changes in the population structure and reproduction of field voles ( Microtus agrestis ), sibling voles ( M. rossiaemeridionalis ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ), and common shrews ( Sorex araneus ) in western Finland during 1984–1992, in an area with 3-yr vole cycles. We also modelled the population growth of voles using parameter values from this study. The animals studied were collected by snap trapping in April, May, June, August, September, and, during 1986–1990, also in October. We found several phase-related differences in the population structure (age structure, sex ratio, proportion of mature individuals) and reproduction (litter size, length of the breeding season) of voles. In non-cyclic common shrews, the only significant phase-related difference was a lower proportion of overwintered individuals in the increase phase. According to the analyses and the vole model, phase-related changes in litter size had only a minor impact on population growth rate. The same was true for winter breeding in the increase phase. The length and intensity of the summer breeding season had an effect on yearly population growth but this impact was relatively weak compared to the effect of cyclic changes in survival. The population increase rates of Microtus were delayed dependent on density (8–12-month time lag). Our results indicate that cyclic changes in reproduction are not an important part of the mechanism driving cyclic fluctuations in vole populations. Low survival of young individuals appeared to play an important role in the shift from the peak to the decline phase in late summer and early autumn.     

Environmental,parental and adaptive variation in egg size of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions

We studied egg size variation of Tengmalm's owls in western Finland during 1981–1990. The owls fed on voles whose population fluctuated in a predictable manner: low (1981, 1984, 1987, 1990), increase (1982, 1985, 1988) and peak (1983, 1986, 1986) phases of the cycle occurred every third year. Eggs were largest in the increase phase of the vole cycle, even though that voles were more abundant and egg-laying started earlier in the peak phase than in the increase phase. This suggests that owls invest mostly in egg size when vole abundance increases along with survival chances of offspring. Territory quality and female age had no effects on egg size, but egg size decreased with laying data in the increase phase of the vole cycle. Egg size was significantly positively related to the male age in the increase phase, but the opposite relationship was significant in the peak phase of the vole cycle. The partners of adult males also decreased their egg volume from the increase to the peak phase, whereas the partners of yearling males produced their largest eggs in the peak phase of the vole cycle. This suggests the importance of experience in prevailing food fluctuations. Possibly male Tengmalm's owls can adjust the intensity of courtship feeding not only in relation to the food abundance on their territories at the time of egg laying, but also to the survival prospects of their offspring. Phenotypic plasticity seems to play a substantial role, as the egg size repeatabilities of individual females and partners of individual males were low. Obviously, under cyclic food conditions, predictability and inter-generational trade-offs are important to life history traits.     

Maintenance of genetic diversity in cyclic populations-a longitudinal analysis in Myodes glareolus

Conspicuous cyclic changes in population density characterize many populations of small northern rodents. The extreme crashes in individual number are expected to reduce the amount of genetic variation within a population during the crash phases of the population cycle. By long-term monitoring of a bank vole (Myodes glareolus) population, we show that despite the substantial and repetitive crashes in the population size, high heterozygosity is maintained throughout the population cycle. The striking population density fluctuation in fact only slightly reduced the allelic richness of the population during the crash phases. Effective population sizes of vole populations remained also relatively high even during the crash phases. We further evaluated potential mechanisms contributing to the genetic diversity of the population and found that the peak phases are characterized by both a change in spatial pattern of individuals and a rapid accession of new alleles probably due to migration. We propose that these events act together in maintaining the high genetic diversity within cyclical populations.     

Spatial synchrony in vole population fluctuations – a field experiment

Three mechanisms have been proposed to induce spatial synchrony in fluctuations of small mammal populations: climate‐related environmental effects, predation and dispersal. We conducted a field experiment in western Finland to evaluate the relative roles of these mechanisms in inducing spatial synchrony among cyclic populations of field voles Microtus agrestis. The study was conducted during the increase and peak phases of a vole population cycle on four agricultural field sites situated 1.5–7.0 km apart. Each field contained two 0.5‐ha fenced enclosures and one 1‐ha unfenced control area. One enclosure per field allowed access by small mustelid predators and the other by avian predators; all enclosures prevented the dispersal of voles. The unfenced control areas allowed access by all predators as well as dispersal by voles. Enclosed vole populations were in a treatment‐wise asynchronous phase before the predator access treatments were applied. The growth rates of all enclosed populations were tightly synchronized during the course of the experiment. Conversely, synchrony both among the unfenced populations and between the fenced and unfenced populations was practically non‐existent. During winter, in the increase phase of the cycle, vole populations in all treatments declined to low densities due to a seasonal effect of winter food depletion. During summer, in the peak year of the vole cycle, all populations fluctuated in synchrony. At this time, both small mustelids and birds of prey appeared to be abundant enough to induce synchrony. Dispersal was identified as a potential contributor to synchronization, but the magnitude of its effects could not be reliably discerned. Our results indicate that no single mechanism can account for the observed patterns of spatial synchrony among cyclic northern vole populations. Rather, spatial synchronization is induced by different mechanisms, namely seasonality and predation, acting successively during different seasons and phases of the vole cycle.     

New views on how population‐intrinsic and community‐extrinsic processes interact during the vole population cycles

Based on evidence from a series of recent studies linking behaviour to demography in experimental vole populations we propose how intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact through the various phases of the multi‐annual population cycles of voles and lemmings. We hypothesise that population growth in the increase phase of the cycle is enhanced by a high degree of space sharing (sociality) among reproductive females who share resource patches, especially during winter. These social females enjoy a high reproductive output due to good resource conditions, and facilitation provided by communal thermoregulation, breeding and defence of weanlings towards infanticidal conspecifics. We hypothesise on the other hand that the crash phase is initiated and enhanced by predation of adult males that leads to a series of cascading events involving infanticidal behaviour by immigrant males, increased mortality of adult social females, and inversely density‐dependent and/or disturbance‐induced dispersal. These events further enhance predation‐induced mortality and thus a negative feed‐back loop to the rate of the crash. In this framework we may explain how extrinsic factors such as predation and winter resource distribution contribute to transitions between docile and aggressive behaviours, and how this transition is spatially synchronised by inversely density‐dependent dispersal that may act to mediate a rapidly spreading wave throughout the population. We propose that innate differences among rodent species in their propensities for different social organizations also determine their propensity for exhibiting multi‐annual cycles as well as other cycle‐related phenomena such as shape of the population cycles and spatial synchrony. We provide a set of testable predictions for further empirical evaluation.     

The Chitty effect: a consequence of dynamic energy allocation in a fluctuating environment

An important biological feature of cyclic populations of voles and lemmings is phase-related changes in average body mass, with adults in high-density phases being 20-30% heavier than those in low-density phases of a cycle. This observation, called the "Chitty effect," is considered to be a ubiquitous feature of cyclic populations. It has been argued that understanding the Chitty effect is fundamental to unraveling the enigma of population cycles. However, there exists no agreement among biologists regarding the causes of the Chitty effect. Here, I propose a simple hypothesis to explain the Chitty effect, based on phase-related, dynamic allocation of energy between reproductive and somatic effort. The essence of the hypothesis is that: (1) reproduction is suppressed in animals born or raised in the later part of the increase phase by environmental factors, including social influences; (2) suppression of reproduction limits the amount of energy that is diverted for reproductive effort, and forces a disproportionately greater amount of surplus power (the energy left after the energetic costs of standard and active metabolism are met) to be allocated for somatic effort; (3) the surplus energy, above and beyond what is required for routine biological activities, will allow continuous growth and deposition of additional body mass, which causes an increase in body mass; and (4) animals grow to a larger size as a population enters the peak density phase, causing an increase in the average body mass. The Chitty effect is predicted to be most pronounced at the late increase or peak phase of a population cycle. Possible causes of reproductive suppression include direct or indirect influences of the environmental factors. The Chitty effect may be a consequence, not a cause, of population cycles in small mammals.     

Rate of population change in voles from different phases of the population cycle

Factors involved in causing cyclic vole populations to decline, and in preventing populations from recovering during the subsequent low density phase have long remained unidentified. The traditional view of self-regulation assumes that an increase in population density is prevented by a change in the quality of individuals within the population itself, but this is still inadequately tested in the field. We compared the population growth of wild field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) from the low phase (conducted in 1998) with that of voles from the increase phase (conducted in 1999) in predator-proof enclosures (each 0.5 ha) in western Finland. Within a few months, enclosed vole populations increased to high density, and the realised per capita rate of change over the breeding season did not differ between the populations from different cycle phases. This implies that the recovery of populations from the low phase was not hindered by an impoverishment in quality of individual voles. Accordingly, we suggest that population intrinsic factors (irrespective of the mechanisms they are based on) are unlikely to play a significant role in the generation of cyclic density fluctuations of voles. Instead, we discovered direct density-dependent regulation in the vole populations. Accurate estimates of population growth and the observed density dependence provide important information for empirically based models on population dynamics of rodents.     

Effect of menstrual cycle phase on the ventilatory response to rising body temperature during exercise

To examine the effect of menstrual cycle on the ventilatory sensitivity to rising body temperature, ten healthy women exercised for ~60 min on a cycle ergometer at 50% of peak oxygen uptake during the follicular and luteal phases of their cycle. Esophageal temperature, mean skin temperature, mean body temperature, minute ventilation, and tidal volume were all significantly higher at baseline and during exercise in the luteal phase than the follicular phase. On the other hand, end-tidal partial pressure of carbon dioxide was significantly lower during exercise in the luteal phase than the follicular phase. Plotting ventilatory parameters against esophageal temperature revealed there to be no significant menstrual cycle-related differences in the slopes or intercepts of the regression lines, although minute ventilation and tidal volume did significantly differ during exercise with mild hyperthermia. To evaluate the cutaneous vasodilatory response, relative laser-Doppler flowmetry values were plotted against mean body temperature, which revealed that the mean body temperature threshold for cutaneous vasodilation was significantly higher in the luteal phase than the follicular phase, but there were no significant differences in the sensitivity or peak values. These results suggest that the menstrual cycle phase influences the cutaneous vasodilatory response during exercise and the ventilatory response at rest and during exercise with mild hyperthermia, but it does not influence ventilatory responses during exercise with moderate hyperthermia.     

Managing an invasive predator pre-adapted to a pulsed resource: a model of stoat (Mustela erminea) irruptions in New Zealand beech forests

The stoat (Mustela erminea) is a specialist predator that evolved to exploit the unstable populations of northern voles and lemmings. It was introduced to New Zealand, where it is pre-adapted to respond with a population irruption to the resource pulses that follow a heavy seedfall of southern beech (Nothofagus spp.). Culling stoats during an irruption is necessary to reduce damaging predation on nesting endemic birds. Culling might not reduce the stoat population long term, however, if high natural mortality exceeds culling mortality in peak years. During other phases of the beech-mast cycle, culling might have a greater effect on a smaller stoat population, whether or not damage prevention is critical. We developed a 4-matrix model to predict the effects of culling on λ, the annual rate of change in the size of the stoat population, through the four annual phases of an average masting cycle, explicitly distinguishing between apparent and real culling. In the Post-seedfall phase of the cycle, large numbers of stoats are killed, but little of this extra mortality is additive; in other phases, culling removes larger proportions of smaller total numbers of stoats that would otherwise have lived. Culling throughout all phases is most effective at reducing stoat populations, but is also the most expensive option. Culling in Post-seedfall plus Seed or Crash years is somewhat less effective but better than culling in one phase only. Culling has different short-term effects on stoat age distribution depending on the phase of the cycle when culling begins.     

Survival of cohorts in a fluctuating population of the vole Microtus townsendii

Survival patterns of cohorts are described during a population cycle of the vole Microtus townsendii near Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. A two–year live–trapping study on both enclosed and unfenced populations showed that cohorts during the increase phase of growth lived longest and had the best survival. Smaller voles in the peak density spring cohort had poor survival, but survival increased during the peak density summer. Survival of cohorts in the decline phase breeding season was very poor. The suggestions are made that changes in spacing behaviour may cause changes in cohort survival and that the causes of rapid changes in survival need to be determined.     

Negative effects of density on space use of small mammals differ with the phase of the masting‐induced population cycle

Home range size generally decreases with increasing population density, but testing how this relationship is influenced by other factors (e.g., food availability, kin structure) is a difficult task. We used spatially explicit capture–recapture models to examine how home range size varies with population density in the yellow‐necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis). The relationship between population density and home range size was studied at two distinct phases of population fluctuations induced by beech (Fagus sylvatica) masting: post‐mast peak in abundance (first summer after mast, n = 2) and subsequent crash (second summer after mast, n = 2). We live‐trapped mice from June to September to avoid the confounding effects of autumn seedfall on home range size. In accordance with general predictions, we found that home range size was negatively associated with population density. However, after controlling for the effect of density, home ranges of mice were larger in post‐mast years than during the crash phase. This indicates a higher spatial overlap among neighbors in post‐mast years. We suggest that the increased spatial overlap is caused by negative density‐dependent dispersal that leads to high relatedness of individuals within population in the peak phase of the cycle.     

Mechanisms for delayed density-dependent reproductive traits in field voles, Microtus agrestis: the importance of inherited environmental effects

Reproductive traits of voles vary with the phases of the population density fluctuations. We sought to determine whether the source of this variation resides in the individuals or in their environment. Overwintering field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) from two cyclic out-of-phase populations (increase and peak phases) were sampled in early spring and bred in the laboratory for two generations under standardised conditions with ambient light and temperature. Monitoring of the source populations by capture-mark-recapture showed large differences in reproductive performance. In the increase area, reproduction started six weeks earlier, the probability of maturation of young-of-the-year was more than ten times higher during mid-summer, and reproduction continued nearly two months later in the autumn than in the peak area. These differences were not found to be associated with a difference in age structure of overwintered animals between the two areas (assessed by the distribution of eye lens masses from autopsy samples). Although the population differences in reproductive traits were to some degree also present among the overwintered animals in the laboratory, we found no difference in reproductive traits in the laboratory-born generations. There was a strongly declining seasonal trend in probability of sexual maturation both in the field and in the laboratory under ambient light conditions. However, in the field there were large population differences in the steepness of the seasonal decline that were not seen under the standardised laboratory conditions. We conclude that seasonal decline in maturation rates is governed by change in photoperiod, but that the population level variation in the shape of the decline is caused by a direct response to the environment and not due to variation in any intrinsic state of the individuals reflecting the environment experienced by the previous generation(s).     

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977-2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5-3 km(2)) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase.     

人工饲养条件下根田鼠肥满度的研究

实验室条件下,利用根田鼠1～70日龄体重和体长数据,计算其肥满度指数,目的在于分析其生长发育的基本规律。结果表明,根田鼠1～70日龄肥满度存在性别差异且随日龄增加而增大;雌雄个体的发育不同步;常见曲线回归模型对根田鼠1～70日龄的肥满度不能准确拟合,根据其生长发育状况,将其划分为3个阶段(其中幼体和成体阶段各含2个阶段)。     

Cyclic variation in seasonal recruitment and the evolution of the seasonal decline in Ural owl clutch size

Plastic life-history traits can be viewed as adaptive responses to environmental conditions, described by a reaction norm. In birds, the decline in clutch size with advancing laying date has been viewed as a reaction norm in response to the parent's own (somatic or local environmental) condition and the seasonal decline in its offspring's reproductive value. Theory predicts that differences in the seasonal recruitment are mirrored in the seasonal decrease in clutch size. We tested this prediction in the Ural owl. The owl's main prey, voles, show a cycle of low, increase and peak phases. Recruitment probability had a humped distribution in both increase and peak phases. Average recruitment probability was two to three times higher in the increase phase and declined faster in the latter part of the season when compared with the peak phase. Clutch size decreased twice as steep in the peak (0.1 eggs day-1) as in the increase phase (0.05 eggs day-1). This result appears to refute theoretical predictions of seasonal clutch size declines. However, a re-examination of current theory shows that the predictions of modelling are less robust to details of seasonal condition accumulation in birds than originally thought. The observed pattern can be predicted, assuming specifically shaped seasonal increases in condition across individuals.