Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.     

Linking palaeoenvironmental data and models to understand the past and to predict the future

Complex, process-based dynamic models are used to attempt to mimic the intrinsic variability of the natural environment, ecosystem functioning and, ultimately, to predict future change. Palaeoecological data provide the means for understanding past ecosystem change and are the main source of information for validating long-term model behaviour. As global ecosystems become increasingly stressed by, for example, climate change, human activities and invasive species, there is an even greater need to learn from the past and to strengthen links between models and palaeoecological data. Using examples from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, we suggest that better interactions between modellers and palaeoecologists can help understand the complexity of past changes. With increased synergy between the two approaches, there will be a better understanding of past and present environmental change and, hence, an improvement in our ability to predict future changes.     

Gene diversity and demographic turnover in central and peripheral populations of the perennial herb Gypsophila fastigiata

Within-population gene diversity (H_S) was estimated (using allozyme markers) for 16 populations of the perennial, outcrossing plant, Gypsophila fastigiata , on the Baltic island of Öland. The populations were characterized by data on extent, density, life-stages, and habitat diversity. Populations were classed as central or peripheral in relation to the distribution of "alvar" (habitats with shallow, calcareous soils on limestone bedrock) on southern Öland. Three minimal adequate models were used to explain H_S and the proportions of juveniles and dead adults. In the first model, H_S was significantly lower in peripheral populations and there were no significant additional effects of other explanatory variables. The lower diversity in peripheral populations can be explained by a combination of genetic drift (in populations that vary in size in response to habitat fragmentation) and lower levels of interpopulation gene flow than in central populations. In the two life-stage models, peripheral populations had significantly larger proportions of both juveniles and dead adults – indicating a greater demographic turnover than in the central populations. There were also significant effects of H_S and species diversity on the proportion of juveniles. The central or peripheral position of populations is the strongest predictor of both within-population gene diversity and life-stage dynamics in Öland G. fastigiata .     

Effects of two types of herbivores on the population dynamics of a perennial herb

The joint effects of multiple herbivores on their shared host plant have received increasing interest recently. The influence of herbivores on population dynamics of their host plants, especially the relative roles of different types of damage, is, however, still poorly understood. Here, we present a modelling approach, including both deterministic and stochastic matrix modelling, to be used in estimating fitness effects of multiple herbivores on perennial plants. We examined the effects and relative roles of two specialist herbivores, a pre-dispersal seed predator, Euphranta connexa, and a leaf-feeding moth, Abrostola asclepiadis, on the population dynamics and long-term fitness of their shared host plant, a long-lived perennial herb Vincetoxicum hirundinaria (Asclepiadaceae). We collected demographic data during 3 years and combined these data with the effects of natural levels of herbivory measured from the same individuals. We found that both seed predation and leaf herbivory reduced population growth of V. hirundinaria, but only very high damage levels changed the growth trend of the vigorously growing study populations from positive to negative. Demographic modelling indicated that seed predation had a greater impact on plant population growth than leaf herbivory. The effect of leaf herbivory was weaker and diminished with increasing level of seed predation. Evaluation of individual fitness components, however, suggested that leaf herbivory contributed more strongly to host plant fitness than seed predation. Our results emphasize that understanding the effects of a particular herbivore on plant population dynamics requires also knowledge on other herbivores present in the system, because the effect of a particular type of herbivory on plant population dynamics is likely to vary according to the intensity of other types of herbivory. Furthermore, evaluating herbivore impact from using individual fitness components does not necessarily reflect the long-term effects on total plant fitness.     

Contrasting effects of different landscape characteristics on population growth of a perennial forest herb

Anthropogenic changes in landscape structure, such as habitat loss, habitat subdivision and edge increase, can strongly affect the performance of plants, leading to population declines and extinctions. Many studies to date have focused on single characteristics of landscape structure or single life‐cycle phases, but they poorly discern the different pathways through which landscape change influences plant population dynamics via different vital rates. In this study, we evaluated the effect of two structural characteristics (habitat quantity and edge length) on vital rates and population growth rates of a perennial forest plant (Primula vulgaris) in a historically managed landscape. Areas with higher amounts of forest habitat had higher population growth rates due to higher recruitment, survival and growth of seedlings, while increased forest edge length was positively associated with population growth rates primarily due to a higher survival of reproductive individuals. Effects were stronger during the first of the two transition intervals studied. The results demonstrate that changes in different landscape structural characteristics may result in opposing effects acting via different vital rates, and highlight the need for integrative analyses to evaluate the effects of rapid landscape transformation on the current and long term plant population dynamics.     

Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments

I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges.     

Integral projection models perform better for small demographic data sets than matrix population models: a case study of two perennial herbs

1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets.
2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data.
3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (λ). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for λ than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models.
4. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of λ estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.     

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km²) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.     

Climate change and longterm patch dynamics of a perennial herb

Many perennial herbs are patchily distributed across the landscape. How such patch systems change over time is poorly known. What are the rates of patch establishment, extinction and area growth, and to what degree are changes synchronous and exhibiting trends? Can, for example, climate change signals be discerned? These questions are of interest also concerning the long-term population dynamics of the insects utilizing patchy plant resources. All patches of Vincetoxicum hirundinaria, a long-lived, patchily distributed herb, were mapped within a 12 km² area in SE Sweden. Patch areas were measured in 1977 and then almost yearly from 1990 to 2008.None of the original patches went extinct, but eleven new patches were established during the 32-year study period. However, the new patches combined represented only 0.6% of the total patch area in 2008. Average patch size did not change up to the early 1990s, but thereafter most patches grew slowly and steadily in size. This increase coincided with a climate shift towards longer growing seasons with warmer, sunnier and wetter summers. Larger patches and patches where plants had more flowers per shoot expanded faster.The patch system is presently not in equilibrium and this is probably the result of the new climatic regime. The number of patches increases steadily, most patches increase synchronously in size, and there is a positive feed back of patch size on rate of increase. Still, rates of increase are low, and in a three decade perspective the distribution of plant resources at the landscape scale remains essentially unchanged.     

Rainbow trout: a population simulation based on individual responses to varying environmental and demographic parameters

Synopsis An age-structured simulation model of the growth and population dynamics of a migratory rainbow trout population is presented. The model includes all principal life-history intervals and incorporates the food density-temperature relationships of salmonid growth efficiency proposed by Brett et al. (1969) and Shelbourn et al. (1973). Population size, mean weight, and biomass are adjusted and output monthly over time in age, sex, and location categories; a simulation run may continue for as long as 100 years. A variety of environmental and and biological parameters are utilized in the simulation which can be altered as a user option. Simulation results compare favorably with field data. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the importance of age-sex specific maturation ratios, age-class strength fluctuations, and natural mortality rates in determining population size.     

Stochastic LTRE analysis of the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of a perennial grassland herb

Herbivores can have strong deleterious effects on vital rates (growth, reproduction, and survival) and thus negatively impact the population dynamics of plant species. In practice, however, these effects might be strongly correlated, for example as a result of tradeoffs between vital rates. To get better insights into the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of the long‐lived grassland plant Primula veris population projection matrices were constructed from demographic data collected between 1999 and 2008 (nine annual transitions). Data were collected in two large grassland populations, each of which was subjected to two treatments (grazing by cattle versus a mowing treatment), yielding a total of 36 matrices. We applied a lower‐level vital rate life table response experiment (LTRE) using the small noise approximation (SNA) of the stochastic population growth rate to disentangle the contributions of changes in mean vital rates, variability in vital rates, correlations between vital rates and vital rate elasticities to the difference in the stochastic growth rate. Stochastic growth rates (a= log λ_S) were significantly lower in grazed than in mown plots (a= 0.0185 and 0.1019, respectively). SNA LTRE analysis showed that contributions of mean vital rates by far made the largest contribution to the observed difference in a between grazed and control plots. In particular, changes in sexual reproduction rates made the largest contributions to lower the stochastic growth rate in grazed plots: both adult flowering probabilities and flower and seed production were importantly lower in grazed populations, but these negative effects were largely buffered by increased establishment and seedling survival rates. Among the stochastic terms of the SNA decomposition, contributions of covariance and correlations between vital rates had the largest impact, whereas contributions of elasticities were smaller. The strongest correlation driver was the association between adult survival and seedling establishment, suggesting that environmental conditions favouring adult survival also are beneficial for seedling establishment. Overall, our results show that herbivory had a strong negative effect on the long‐term population growth rate of P. veris that was primarily mediated by differences in fecundity (flower and seed production) and germination.     

Carbohydrate storage and use in an alpine population of the perennial herb, Oxytropis sericea

I tested hypotheses for ecological roles of storage carbohydrates in perennating organs (roots and branches) of alpine Oxytropis sericea, a leguminous herb. In naturally growing plants, total nonstructural carbohydrates achieved their maximal concentration in the fall, declined during winter, and reached minimal levels immediately after growth initiation in the spring. Experimental manipulation of carbon sink-source relations through shading of leaves of reproductive plants revealed that the normally unused portion of these carbohydrates is largely available for withdrawal. In another experiment, plants subjected to carbohydrate depletion through shading suffered decreased leaf growth after winter dormancy and had a lower probability of flowering and decreased inflorescence biomass. The dependence of reproductive growth on stored carbohydrates, however, was limited to its initial stages, because accumulation of storage carbohydrates occurred simultaneously with inflorescence expansion, flowering, and fruiting. Moreover, the whole-plant photosynthetic rate, estimated from gas exchange measurements also peaked at the time of inflorescence growth. To address whether stored reserves allow compensatory regrowth following defoliation, plants were subjected to experimental removal of leaves and inflorescences. Defoliated O. sericea partly regrew the lost leaves but withdrawal of stored carbohydrates was limited. Similarly, in a second defoliation experiment where infructescences were left intact, the plants used little stored carbohydrate and only partly compensated for fruit growth. However, carbohydrate accumulation was negatively affected by defoliation. While the ecological importance of stored nonstructural carbohydrates cannot be attributed to any function in isolation, winter respiration, leaf regrowth after winter, and early reproductive growth in O. sericea all depend to a significant extent on stored reserves. Maintaining a large storage pool may protect these functions in years when carbon status is less favorable than during this study. Received: 13 May 1998 / Accepted: 24 November 1998     

Integrating demographic data and a mechanistic dispersal model to predict invasion spread of Rhododendron ponticum in different habitats

Understanding the invasion potential of a species in different habitat types within the non-native range is crucial in prioritising management and control efforts, and in the protection of vulnerable habitats through monitoring. Here, using the invasive shrub Rhododendron ponticum as a case study, we integrate information on both the demographics and spatial dynamics within an individual-based, spatially-explicit model to investigate invasion potential in different habitats. Firstly, empirical demographic data were used to establish relationships between demographic traits, such as height and fecundity, and habitat variables. The outputs from models fitted using a Generalised Linear Model approach were then incorporated into an individual-based simulation model of plant spread to investigate the invasion potential in different habitats using a factorial design of treatments. Plant height, and thus seed release height, was the main driver of invasion speed through an increase in dispersal potential, which resulted in the highest invasion speeds predicted for evergreen woodlands, and relatively low speeds for open habitats. Conversely, invasion density was driven by plant fecundity and seedling survival and not dispersal potential; the highest invasion densities were predicted for open habitats, with relatively low densities for evergreen habitats. Deciduous woodland had features resulting in intermediate invasion potential, both in terms of speed and density and may, therefore be the habitat that is most vulnerable to relatively rapid and dense invasion.     

Population dynamics of diploid and hexaploid populations of a perennial herb

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the recent enormous increase in the number of studies on polyploid species, no studies to date have explored the population dynamics of these taxa. It is thus not known whether the commonly reported differences in single life-history traits between taxa of different ploidy levels result in differences in population dynamics. METHODS: This study explores differences in single life-history traits and in the complete life cycle between populations of different ploidy levels and compares these differences with differences observed between different habitat types and years. Diploid and hexaploid populations of a perennial herb, Aster amellus, are used as the study system. Transition matrix models were used to describe the dynamics of the populations, and population growth rates, elasticity values and life-table response experiments were used to compare the dynamics between populations and years. KEY RESULTS: The results indicate that between-year variation in population dynamics is much larger than variation between different ploidy levels and different habitat conditions. Significant differences exist, however, in the structure of the transition matrices, indicating that the dynamics of the different ploidy levels are different. Strong differences in probability of extinction of local populations were also found, with hexaploid populations having higher probability than diploid populations, indicating strong potential differences in persistence of these populations. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study on complete population dynamics of plants of different ploidy levels. This knowledge will help to understand the ability of new ploidy levels to spread into new areas and persist there, and the interactions of different ploidy levels in secondary contact zones. This knowledge will also contribute to understanding of interactions of different ploidy levels with other plant species or other interacting organisms such as pollinators or herbivores.     

Reproductive effort and herbivory timing in a perennial herb: fitness components at the individual and population levels

We experimentally investigated how pollinator- and herbivore-induced changes influence the performance of the long-lived herb Primula veris. Eight treatments that corresponded to natural factors normally affecting this species were designed to enhance or reduce reproductive success and resource availability (flower removal, supplementary pollination, defoliation). During the experimental season and in the following year we quantified responses in terms of survival, growth, and seed production of reproductive plants. Matrix population models were used to calculate population growth rate using the demographic parameters recorded in permanent plots and respective treatment groups. Seed production was not limited by pollen availability, and we found no evidence of a cost of reproduction. Leaf removal had either no effect or a negative effect on future performance, depending on the timing of removal. Defoliation early in the season reduced current seed production and future growth, whereas removal during fruit development affected performance in the following year. Demographic models suggest that leaf damage has a smaller negative impact than flower removal on overall performance in this population. Our results suggest that the source-sink paths vary over the season and that the timing of herbivory may influence the extent to which effects are carried over to subsequent reproductive seasons.     

Using population genetics and demographic reconstruction to predict outcomes of genetic rescue for an endangered songbird

Genetic rescue can be a successful way to restore species genetic diversity, but it can also lead to outbreeding depression (decreases in hybrid fitness) if attempted in incompatible populations. Thus, population genetic profiles and demographic history are needed to evaluate the feasibility of translocation. We used population genetic analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to assess genetic rescue as an option for two populations of the yellow-shouldered blackbird (Agelaius xanthomus), an endangered Puerto Rico endemic. The candidate recipient population, a managed population in Pitahaya (southwestern Puerto Rico), had been characterized previously for its mating system and population genetics. Here, we used nine microsatellite loci to measure the genetic diversity of a candidate source population, a subspecies (A. x. monensis) on Mona Island, 66 km west of Puerto Rico. We compared genetic diversity and inferred historical and contemporary gene flow between the two populations. We found clear population structure and no migration between populations, as well as evidence that the Mona population descended from the Pitahaya population approximately 95 generations ago. Despite the historical gene flow, the degree of contemporary genetic and environmental divergence means the Mona population may not be suitable for immediate use as a source population. We recommend (a) further investigating whether the observed population structure is due to adaptive or neutral forces, (b) testing the Mona population for behavioral plasticity in different environments, and (c) evaluating other source populations in addition to the Mona population for genetic rescue.