Temporal Vulnerability and the Post-Disaster ‘Window of Opportunity to Woo:’ a Case Study of an African-American Floodplain Neighborhood after Hurricane Floyd in North Carolina

After major flooding associated with Hurricane Floyd (1999) in North Carolina, mitigation managers seized upon the “window of opportunity” to woo residents to accept residential buyout offers despite sizable community resistance. I present a theoretical explanation of how post-crisis periods turn into “opportunities” based on a temporal referential theory that complements alternative explanations based on temporal coincidence, panarchy, and shock-doctrine theories. Results from fieldwork conducted from 2002 to 2004 illustrate how several temporal influences compromised collective calibration of “normalcy” in local cultural models, leading to an especially heightened vulnerability to collective surprise. Four factors particularly influenced this temporal vulnerability: 1) epistemological uncertainty of floodplain dynamics due to colonization; 2) cultural practices that maintained a casual amnesia; 3) meaning attributed to stochastic timing of floods; and 4) competitive impact of referential flood baseline attractors.     

Adaptation to natural flow regimes

Floods and droughts are important features of most running water ecosystems, but the alteration of natural flow regimes by recent human activities, such as dam building, raises questions related to both evolution and conservation. Among organisms inhabiting running waters, what adaptations exist for surviving floods and droughts? How will the alteration of the frequency, timing and duration of flow extremes affect flood- and drought-adapted organisms? How rapidly can populations evolve in response to altered flow regimes? Here, we identify three modes of adaptation (life history, behavioral and morphological) that plants and animals use to survive floods and/or droughts. The mode of adaptation that an organism has determines its vulnerability to different kinds of flow regime alteration. The rate of evolution in response to flow regime alteration remains an open question. Because humans have now altered the flow regimes of most rivers and many streams, understanding the link between fitness and flow regime is crucial for the effective management and restoration of running water ecosystems.     

Xylem cavitation caused by drought and freezing stress in four co-occurring Juniperus species

Previous studies indicate that conifers are vulnerable to cavitation induced by drought but in many cases, not by freezing. Rarely have vulnerability to drought and freezing stress been studied together, even though both influence plant physiology and the abundance and distribution of plants in many regions of the world. We studied vulnerability to drought- and freezing-induced cavitation, along with wood density, conduit reinforcement, tracheid diameter, and hydraulic conductivity, in four Juniperus species that typically occupy different habitats, but uniquely co-occur at the same site in Arizona, AZ. We combined drought with a freeze-thaw cycle to create freezing-induced vulnerability curves. All four species demonstrated greater vulnerability to drought + freezing- than to drought-induced cavitation alone ( P  < 0.0001). Mean tracheid diameter was correlated with vulnerability to drought + freezing-induced cavitation (r = 0.512, P  = 0.01). The vulnerability to cavitation of each species followed expected rankings based on relative moisture within each species' natural distribution. Species with naturally drier distributions showed greater resistance to both drought- and drought + freezing-induced cavitation. Even conifer species with relatively small tracheid diameters can experience xylem embolism after a single freeze-thaw cycle when under drought stress.     

Can environmental flows moderate riparian invasions? The influence of seedling morphology and density on scour losses in experimental floods

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Recruitment limitation along disturbance gradients in river flood plains

Abstract. Question: Along river floodplains lower distribution limits of plant species seem largely determined by their tolerance to rarely occurring floods in the growing season. Such distribution patterns remain fixed for many years suggesting additional effects of winter floods at lower positions. Our objective was to investigate the direct and indirect effects of winter floods on colonization of floodplains in a series of field experiments. Location: River Rhine, The Netherlands. Methods: We measured the direct effects of winter floods on seedling survival and seed removal and survival at low and high floodplain elevation. Indirect effects of winter flooding through changes in the soil were investigated by measuring seedling emergence on soil transplants that were exchanged between high and low floodplain elevation. To investigate indirect effects of floods on the germination environment through changes in the vegetation structure, we measured the effects of vegetation removal on recruitment of sown species. Results: Recruitment was seed limited at both floodplain elevations. An additional effect of vegetation removal on seedling emergence was also observed. Soil types from both zones did not differently affect seedling emergence. Seeds were not removed from the soil surface by a single winter flood. Moreover, seeds remained viable in the soil for at least two years, while the experimental plots were flooded several times during the experimental period. During one of those floods a thick sand layer was deposited at the low zone and subsequently no seedlings were observed anymore. Conclusions: Colonization of low floodplain zones in years between subsequent summer floods is prevented by seed limitation while the direct effects of winter floods are limited except for irregularly occurring sand depositions.     

Habitat-related predation on juvenile wild-caught and hatchery-reared red drum Sciaenops ocellatus (Linnaeus)

We examined the patterns of habitat-specific mortality for newly settled red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) using an experimental mesocosm approach. Experiments were designed to analyze prey vulnerability and fish rearing-type (wild-caught or hatchery-reared) in estuarine habitats of varying structural complexity including marsh (Spartina alterniflora Loisel), oyster reef (Crassostrea virginica Gmelin), seagrass (Halodule wrightii Aschers), and nonvegetated sand bottom. We used two different predators, pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides Linnaeus) and spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus Cuvier). For both predators, vulnerability of wild-caught red drum was significantly lower in structurally complex habitats such as seagrass and oyster reef; the highest vulnerability was associated with the nonvegetated bottom. This habitat effect was not apparent for hatchery-reared prey. In trials using a combination of both rearing-types, there was no significant habitat effect on prey selection, but hatchery-reared red drum suffered higher overall mortality than wild-caught fish from pinfish predators. In these trials, spotted seatrout did not select for either prey type. Differences we observed in prey vulnerability were likely caused by behavioral differences between wild-caught and hatchery-reared red drum. Our results reinforce the conclusion that structural complexity in estuarine habitats increases survival of newly settled fishes. Our data also suggest that hatchery-reared red drum may be more vulnerable to predation than natural fishes, and that survival of stocked fish may be enhanced through habitat-related behavior modification.     

Maternal effects in vulnerability to eye‐parasites and correlations between behavior and parasitism in juvenile Arctic charr

Hatchery‐reared fish show high mortalities after release to the wild environment. Explanations for this include potentially predetermined genetics, behavioral, and physiological acclimation to fish farm environments, and increased vulnerability to predation and parasitism in the wild. We studied vulnerability to Diplostomum spp. parasites (load of eye flukes in the lenses), immune defense (relative spleen size) and antipredator behaviors (approaches toward predator odor, freezing, and swimming activity) in hatchery‐reared juvenile Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) using a nested mating design. Fish were exposed to eye‐fluke larvae via the incoming water at the hatchery. Fish size was positively associated with parasite load, but we did not find any relationship between relative spleen size and parasitism. The offspring of different females showed significant variation in their parasite load within sires, implying a dam effect in the vulnerability to parasites. However, the family background did not have any effect on spleen size. In the mean sire level over dams, the fish from the bolder (actively swimming) families in the predator trials suffered higher loads of eye flukes than those from more cautiously behaving families. Thus, the results indicate potentially maternally inherited differences in vulnerability to eye‐fluke parasites, and that the vulnerability to parasites and behavioral activity are positively associated with each other at the sire level. This could lead to artificial and unintentional selection for increased vulnerability to both parasitism and predation if these traits are favored in fish farm environments.     

Assess the human and environmental vulnerability for coastal hazard by using a multi-criteria decision analysis

This study provides an integrated approach using geographical information system (GIS) based on a multi-criteria approach (MCDA) to assess coastal vulnerability, resulting from human activity, population density, erosion, and climate change-induced sea level rise. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for erosion and floods was calculated and mapped (～24 km in length; ～400 m in width, and 11.47 km² in surface) for the lagoon barrier of Nador located on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco. Results suggest that 54% (～13 km) of the shoreline is moderately vulnerable, while 42% (～10 km) is highly vulnerable and only 4% (1 km) present a low vulnerability. The vulnerability map of the socio-economic activities indicates that most wetlands and forest areas 83% (～31 ha) and 50% (～440 ha) respectively, present low vulnerability. 52% percent of artificial areas (～23 ha), 73% of agricultural land (～128 ha), and 41% of natural areas (～363 ha) present moderate vulnerability. However, the level of vulnerability of the remaining artificial and agricultural areas classifies from high to very high. The north-western sector was classified as the most vulnerable area, characterized by an erosion (?0.6 m/yr to ?1.20 m/yr) for 70% of this area, while the south-eastern part shows a low to moderate vulnerability marked by an erosion (?0.1 m/yr to ?1m/yr) for 40% of this area. Coastal vulnerability maps have potential as decision tools to prepare and respond to sea level rise, and identify exposed coastal zones, as such contributing to national climate action and disaster risk reduction sustainable development goals (goals 13 and 11, respectively).     

Perception of and agricultural adjustment to floods in Jamuna floodplain,Bangladesh

Based on a sample survey collected from randomly selected farmers inhabiting the Jamuna floodplain of Bangladesh, this study deals with the perception of and agricultural adjustments to both normal and abnormal floods. The study found that the respondents' perception of flood is conditioned by the key role played by floods in their lives. The study further observed that the respondents successfully cope with the normal floods. In cases of abnormal floods, they practiced several adjustments to reduce damages.     

Urban Low-Income African American Men, HIV/AIDS, and Gender Identity

In a 1993 Human Organization article, Jerome Wright called for more research on African American male sexual behavior and the risk for HIV infection. The present article is a response to that call. Wright pointed out a well-known fact of HIV/AIDS prevention programs: such programs have not been very successful in reaching low-income African American males. The present article suggests that perhaps the key to better understanding sex-related health-risk behavior is to conduct more systematic research on gender identity, and the historical and sociocultural origins of such identities. I argue that if we are truly interested in developing effective HIV/AIDS programs targeting low-income African American males, then the sociocultural "meanings" that this population attaches to AIDS-related phenomena must be understood in the broader contexts of American constructs of masculinity, and in the real and perceived experiences of black men in America. Data from several ethnographic and qualitative research projects carried out among low-income African American male and female residents of Baltimore, other parts of Maryland, and Washington, D.C. are used in support of my primary arguments. [HIV/AIDS, African American Males, Gender Constructs, Sociocultural Meaning, Plantation America]     

The biological threat to U.S. water supplies: Toward a national water security policy

In addition to providing potable drinking water, U.S. water systems are critical to the maintenance of many vital public services, such as fire suppression and power generation. Disruption of these systems would produce severe public health and safety risks, as well as considerable economic losses. Thus, water systems have been designated as critical to national security by the U.S. government. Previous outbreaks of waterborne disease have demonstrated the vulnerability of both the water supply and the public's health to biological contamination of drinking water. Such experiences suggest that a biological attack, or even a credible threat of an attack, on water infrastructure could seriously jeopardize the public's health, its confidence, and the economic vitality of a community. Despite these recognized vulnerabilities, protecting water supplies from a deliberate biological attack has not been sufficiently addressed. Action in this area has suffered from a lack of scientific understanding of the true vulnerability of water supplies to intentional contamination with bioweapons, insufficient tools for detecting biological agents, and a lack of funds to implement security improvements. Much of what is needed to address the vulnerability of the national water supply falls outside the influence of individual utilities. This includes developing a national research agenda to appropriately identify and characterize waterborne threats and making funds available to implement security improvements.     

Floods increase carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in agricultural streams

1. Changes in climate are causing floods to occur more often and more intensely in many parts of the world, including agricultural landscapes of southern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). How flooding and greater flood frequency affect stream carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes and concentrations is not obvious. Thus, we asked how diffusive fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄ varied over time, particularly in response to floods, in agricultural streams, and what were likely causes for observed flood responses.
2. We measured concentrations and diffusive fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄ at 10 stream sites in mixed agricultural and suburban catchments in southern Wisconsin (U.S.A.) during the growing season (March–November) in a year that experienced multiple floods. Habitat, hydrologic, and water chemistry attributes were also quantified to determine likely drivers of changes in gas concentrations and fluxes.
3. Habitat and water chemistry, as well as CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations and fluxes were temporally erratic and lacked any seasonality. Carbon dioxide and CH₄ concentrations and fluxes were higher during floods along with increased water velocity, turbidity, and dissolved organic carbon and decreases in dissolved oxygen, soft sediment depth, and macrophyte cover.
4. Increased gas concentrations and fluxes were probably due to flushing of gases from soils, respiration of organic matter in the channel, and increased gas exchange velocities during floods.
5. Flooding alleviated both supply and transfer limits on CO₂ and CH₄ emissions in these agricultural streams, and frequent and prolonged flooding during the growing season led to sustained high emissions from these streams. We hypothesise that such persistent increases in emissions during floods may be a common response to high precipitation periods for many agricultural streams.

     

新疆贫困地区维吾尔族农民肥胖与血脂异常相关性研究

肥胖及血脂异常研究很少涉及低收入地区。本研究分析了新疆低收入地区维吾尔族农民体质指数(BMI)、超重及肥胖与多种血脂分子异常的关系,探讨贫困地区筛查高危人群的适宜策略。在新疆喀什农村对3 286名年龄≥18岁个体(男1 585人,女1 701人) 进行问卷检查、体格检查及多项血脂分子的检测。数据采用Pearson相关性、ROC、Logistic回归等统计学分析。结果显示,在男女性中,随着BMI的增加,甘油三酯(TG)、总胆固醇(TC)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDLC)的血浓度呈现递增趋势（P<0.01）;男/女性TG、LDLC、TC血浓度均与BMI有显著相关性(P<0.01)。单项或多项血脂异常率均随BMI增加而上升;同一个体2个血脂指标同时异常的高危组合分别是TG+HDLC(高密度脂蛋白胆固醇)和TC+TG。Logistic联合多变量ROC曲线分析表明, 单项指标HDLC(AUC=089)在血脂异常诊断中的权重最高;而组合指标TG+HDLC(AUC=095)的权重高于其它任何组合。单因素Logistic回归分析发现,超重和肥胖是代谢综合征相关血脂指标TG、TC和HDLC异常的危险因素(P<0.05)。上述结果表明,在南疆农村贫困维吾尔族人群中,男女性超重与肥胖者均与血脂指标异常升高相关;HDLC、TG和 TC 任意两个指标同时异常,为血脂异常的高危状态。肥胖伴有“TG+HDLC”异常升高可能是血脂异常相关疾病的“集合危险因素”,在贫困地区具有临床筛查参考价值。     

Climate Change and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Case-Based Perspective

Over the coming decades, sub-Saharan Africa will face profound stresses and challenges from global climate change. Many of these will manifest as adverse health outcomes. This article uses a series of five hypothetical cases to review the climate impacts on the health and well-being of individuals and populations in sub-Saharan Africa. This approach fosters insights into the human dimensions of the risks to health, their interaction with local human ecology, and awareness of the diverse health ramifications of external environmental changes. Each case illustrates the health impact resulting from a specific environmental or social consequence of climate change, including impacts on agriculture and food security, droughts, floods, malaria, and population displacement. Whereas the article focuses on discrete manifestations of climate change, individuals will, in practice, face multiple stresses from climate change (i.e., floods and malaria) concomitant with other non-climate stressors (i.e., HIV/AIDS, globalization, etc.). These multiple sources of vulnerability must be considered when designing climate change and socioeconomic development interventions.     

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods,scales, and knowledge co-production

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social–ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.     

新疆贫困地区维吾尔族农民肥胖与血脂异常相关性研究

肥胖及血脂异常研究很少涉及低收入地区。本研究分析了新疆低收入地区维吾尔族农民体质指数(BMI)、超重及肥胖与多种血脂分子异常的关系,探讨贫困地区筛查高危人群的适宜策略。在新疆喀什农村对3 286名年龄≥18岁个体(男1 585人,女1 701人) 进行问卷检查、体格检查及多项血脂分子的检测。数据采用Pearson相关性、ROC、Logistic回归等统计学分析。结果显示,在男女性中,随着BMI的增加,甘油三酯(TG)、总胆固醇(TC)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDLC)的血浓度呈现递增趋势（P<0.01）;男/女性TG、LDLC、TC血浓度均与BMI有显著相关性(P<0.01)。单项或多项血脂异常率均随BMI增加而上升;同一个体2个血脂指标同时异常的高危组合分别是TG+HDLC(高密度脂蛋白胆固醇)和TC+TG。Logistic联合多变量ROC曲线分析表明, 单项指标HDLC(AUC=089)在血脂异常诊断中的权重最高;而组合指标TG+HDLC(AUC=095)的权重高于其它任何组合。单因素Logistic回归分析发现,超重和肥胖是代谢综合征相关血脂指标TG、TC和HDLC异常的危险因素(P<0.05)。上述结果表明,在南疆农村贫困维吾尔族人群中,男女性超重与肥胖者均与血脂指标异常升高相关;HDLC、TG和 TC 任意两个指标同时异常,为血脂异常的高危状态。肥胖伴有“TG+HDLC”异常升高可能是血脂异常相关疾病的“集合危险因素”,在贫困地区具有临床筛查参考价值。     

Vulnerability assessment and impact factor analysis of marine economic system based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

It is crucial to examine the vulnerability of the marine economy and analyze the main influencing factors to promote the sustainable development of marine economy. In this rearch, a vulnerability assessment index system of marine economic system was constructed from four aspects: stress, sensitivity, elasticity and response ability. Combined with the coefficient of variation method, 40 assessment indexes in the index system were objectively selected and reduced. Based on the assessment set obtained from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the weighted average method and weighted linear sum method were used to measure the vulnerability level type and evolution characteristics of the marine economic system. The key influencing factors were analyzed using a principal component analysis. We found that the vulnerability of Jiangsu's marine economic system in 2007–2016 was moderate and low, and it was significantly improved during 2012–2015, especially in 2015, it was mild vulnerable and below. The GDP of coastal areas, fixed asset investment of the whole society, value added of marine and related industries, coastal wind power generation capacity, per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents and list all were the key factors affecting the vulnerability of the marine economy. We analyzed the characteristics and influencing factors of vulnerability change and put forward targeted suggestions.     

EVOLUTION OF INTRINSIC GROWTH AND ENERGY ACQUISITION RATES. II. TRADE-OFFS WITH VULNERABILITY TO PREDATION IN MENIDIA MENIDIA

Abstract The Atlantic silverside ( Menidia menidia ) exhibits countergradient latitudinal variation in somatic growth rate along the East Coast of North America. Larvae and juveniles from high-latitude populations display higher intrinsic rates of energy consumption and growth than genotypes from low-latitude populations. The existence of submaximal growth in some environments suggests that trade-offs must counter the oft-cited theoretical benefits of energy and growth maximization (e.g., "bigger is better,""faster is better") in the immature life stages. We hypothesized that energy and growth maximization trades off against investment in defense from predators. We conducted laboratory selection experiments to compare vulnerability to predation of silversides from: (1) fast-growing northern (Nova Scotia, NS) versus slow-growing southern (South Carolina, SC) source populations; (2) phenotypically manipulated fast-growing versus moderately-growing NS fish; and (3) recently fed versus unfed NS and SC fish. Tests involved fish drawn from common-garden environments and were conducted by subjecting mixed-treatment schools of size-matched silversides to natural, common piscine predators. NS silversides suffered significantly higher predation mortality than SC silversides. Parallel results were found in phenotypic manipulation of growth: NS silversides reared on a fast-growth trajectory (∼1.0 mm/day) were significantly more vulnerable to predation than those growing at a moderate rate (∼0.5 mm/day). Food consumption also affected vulnerability to predators: Silversides with large meals in their stomachs suffered significantly higher predation mortality than unfed silversides. Differences in predation vulnerability were likely due to swimming performance, not attractiveness to predators. Our findings demonstrate that maximization of energy intake and growth rate engenders fitness costs in the form of increased vulnerability to predation.     

Morphology and nutritional value of Aponogeton undulatus Roxb. growing in deeply flooded areas in Bangladesh

Aponogeton undulatus Roxb. grows in abundance throughout the deeply flooded land in the Northeast Region of Bangladesh. The plant has the ability to elongate and tolerate submergence after deep flooding. The elongation ability is expressed chiefly by the elongation of petiole. The rootstock of the plant is an important food item for the low-income people in this deeply flooded area. Rice is the main crop in this area providing the major source of energy and protein. However, the crop is often damaged by floods. The nutrient composition of rootstock of Aponogetan undulatus Roxb. shows that it can provide an adequate supply of carbohydrate, protein and some minerals. This food can be exceptionally useful as a nutrient supplement in many areas where purchasing power is limited because of low incomes. Four species of Aponogeton are found in Bangladesh. The aquatic environment prevailing in the deeply flooded area in Bangladesh has great potential in terms of propagation of these species. If this potential can be realized it would improve the nutrition of the people and maintain biodiversity and traditional ecosystems. Further study on the chemical composition of rootstock, and ecological, morphological and physiological characteristics of all the Aponogeton species would be of great value.     

Influence of sprint speed and body size on predator avoidance in New Mexican spadefoot toads (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spea multiplicata</Emphasis>)

Predator–prey interactions play an important role in community dynamics and may be important for promoting genetic diversification. Diversification may be especially important when prey species have multiple anti-predator strategies available, but these strategies conflict with each other. For example, rapid sprint speed and large size are both thought to decrease vulnerability to many predators. A physiological trade-off between swimming speed and growth rate has been documented in many aquatic species and, as a result, individual genotypes may employ one strategy or the other, but not both. Although rapid sprint speed is often assumed to decrease vulnerability to predators, this has only rarely been tested. Here I provide evidence that both rapid sprint speed and large size in tadpoles of the New Mexico spadefoot toad (Spea multiplicata) decreases predation risk from carnivore morphs of its congener the Great Plains spadefoot toad (Spea bombifrons). Such conflicts, coupled with spatio-temporal variation in predation pressure, may be important in maintaining genetic variation for trade-offs.