A method for estimating natural survival rate and mean fecundity of an adult insect population by dissecting the female reproductive organs

Several problems were discussed in relation toMacDonald' s method (MacDonald , 1957) for estimating the survival rate of a natural population of adults with varying survival rates and unstable age structure.

1. Random samplings with a fixed sampling ratio and an appropriate census interval is pre-requisite during the occurrence of the adults.
2. At each sampling, female adults are dissected to know the ratio, p_i, of nulliparous females in ith sample (i=0, 1, 2, 3, …,). The Σn_ip_i/Σn_i gives an estimate of the ratio, Fα/F, of nulliparous females in the population where n_i refers to the population size on ith census date. If a constant daily survival rate is assumed, the daily survival rate is estimated from equation (4′). When the survival rate is not constant over the period of adult occurrence, e. g. before and after the initiation of oviposition, the survival rate during pre-ovipositional period is estimated by equation (4″).
3. Decision of an economic census interval to obtain a reliable estimate of the ratio, Fα/F, is depending on the form of emergence curve, particularly on its duration and the length of pre-ovipositional period. If the normal distribution can be assumed for the emergence curve, an interval less than one third of the emergence period is recommended. Concerning with insects having a long pre-ovipositional period, a census interval which exceeds one third of the emergence period still gives a good estimate of Fα/F.
4. The mean realized fecundity of some kind of insects can be estimated by equation (5′ or 5″) using the estimates obtained by the present method.

     

Estimation of the stage-specific survival rate in the insect population with overlapping stages

An application ofHokyo andKiritani 's method (1967) was attempted to estimate the stage specific survival rates of the population with overlapping stages. This method can be written as follows assuming a constant daily survival rate (K) throughout the life: where, and F refer respectively to the total incidence of ith instar nymphs and that of individuals after ith instar inclusive, and α_i refers to the developmental period of ith instar. Application of this model to caged and natural populations of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula, was made to test its validity. The estimates of the initial number of successive stages obtained from the present method were compared with those fromRichards andWaloff 's method (1954) for the caged populations of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations. The superiority of the present method to theRichards andWaloff 's in estimating adult numbers was shown in all the generations examined. When different daily survival rates are involved in the course of population decrease, application of the revised method proposed byHokyo andKiritani (1967), gives much reliable estimate as compared with one before correction. The present method is useful in constructing life table of such species as scale insects which complete their life cycle within a defined space, but their successive stages overlap considerably.     

Extensions to Southwood and Jepson's graphical method of estimating numbers entering a stage for calculating mortality due to parasitism

1. Seven methods of estimating percentage parasitism using graphical estimates of host or parasitoid recruitment are presented.
2. Biases affecting these percentage parasitism estimates arise from the effect of mortality on graphical estimates of numbers entering a stage. These biases result in underestimation of parasitism in some of the methods examined and overestimation in others.
3. The methods and their biases are discussed and illustrated with reference to data from four generations of Pieris rapae (L.) parasitized by Cotesia glomerata (L.).
4. The general impact of these biases are discussed with reference to situations where the methods might be applied.

     

A simulation study of three methods for estimating selective values and survival rates from recapture data

The methods ofManly (1973),Manly (1975) andManly (1977) for estimating survival rates and relative survival rates from recapture data have been compared by computer simulation. In the simulations batches of two types of animal were “released” at one point in “time” and recapture samples were taken at “daily” intervals from then on. The various methods of estimation were then used to estimate, the daily survival rates of type 1 and type 2 animals, and also the survival rate of the type 2 animals relative to the type 1 animals. Simulation experiments were designed to examine (a) the bias in estimates, (b) the relative precision of different methods of estimation, (c) the validity of confidence intervals for true parameter values, and (d) the effect on estimates of the failure of certain assumptions.     

Estimation of the individual number entering each development stage in an insect population

A method for estimating the number entering each development stage from data obtained by regular sampling through one generation of an insect population was described. This method is consisted of the following two procedures: The provisional estimates are calculated on the assumption that each stage has a common mortality in a sampling interval. Then these estimates are corrected on another assumption that the mortality is different in each stage but constant during a stage. The result of testing its validity with two laboratory populations of the common cabbage butterfly, Pieris rapae crucivora, showed the availability of the present method.     

The spatial pattern in a natural population of goldenrod (Solidago altissima L.), with particular reference to its change during the shoot growth

In a natural population of Solidago altissima L., the changes in the spatial pattern of shoots in the course of growth were studied. The results obtained were summarized as follows:

1. The spatial pattern changed from clumped to random distribution as plants grew. The change seemed to be resulted from some density-dependent process acting at a small spatial scale, probably the competition for space.
2. Large plants tended to distribute themselves more uniformly over the space than the small ones but at the mature stage of growth such a difference was not obviously recognized. The process of appearance of the small-sized plants during successive periods also seemed to be dependent on local density.
3. Large plants at the early stage of growth tended to survive better, and there was a positive correlation between initial size and the size at maturity.
4. From these results, it is inferred that the change of spatial pattern from clumped to random distribution is largely due to the elimination of small shoots as the result of competition for space among individual shoots.

     

Mating opportunity and the evolution of sex-specific mortality rates in a butterfly

Life history theory predicts that organisms should only invest resources into intrinsic components of life span to the degree that it pays off in terms of reproductive success. Here, we investigate if the temporal distribution of mating opportunities may have influenced the evolution of intrinsic mortality rates in the butterfly Pararge aegeria (Satyrinae). In this species, females mate only once and the frequency of male mating opportunities depends on the temporal emergence pattern of virgin females. As expected, in a population from Madeira where females emerge continuously throughout the year, there was no sex difference in adult life span, while in a Swedish population with synchronised female emergence, males had significantly shorter life spans compared to females. A logistic mortality model provided the best fit to the observed change in age-specific mortality and all categories reached an asymptotic mortality rate of a similar magnitude. However, the Swedish males reached this mortality plateau more rapidly than the other categories. External mortality, due to water and food limitation, affected the pattern of sex-specific mortality but males from Sweden still had higher rates of mortality compared to all other categories. We argue that selection on male longevity is likely to be weaker in Sweden because under synchronised emergence, all females emerge and mate within a short period of time, after which male reproductive value will quickly approach zero. On Madeira, however, male reproductive value decrease more slowly with age since the probability of finding a receptive female is constant over the year. Received: 29 July 1999 / Accepted: 23 August 1999     

Searching for potential wintering and migration areas of a Danish Barn Swallow population in South Africa by correlating NDVI with survival estimates

On the basis of correlation analyses between annual Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in Africa and the annual survival rate estimated for a breeding population of barn swallows Hirundo rustica from Denmark, we identified potential wintering and migration areas in South Africa during December–February and March–May, when barn swallows commonly occur in South Africa. During December–February we identified potential wintering areas only in the western part of South Africa, in the Karoo. Potential areas in the central and eastern parts of the country were only identified during March–May. NDVI values in the Karoo during March–May explained most of the variance in annual adult survival rate of the population. The high ratio of European ringed barn swallows among controlled individuals in the Karoo was similar to the ratio that would be expected based on the number of ringed barn swallows and the population sizes of barn swallows in north-western European breeding populations. The level of this ratio in the Karoo was higher than in any other locality in the central and eastern parts of South Africa and Botswana, indicating that ringed birds from the eastern flyway are absent to a much smaller extent than ringed birds from the western flyway. This approach shows that the NDVI and survival method can focus ringing efforts to regions and areas that are likely to harbour specific breeding populations, thereby helping to identify potential wintering and migration areas for breeding populations of migratory birds.     

Statistical method for estimating the standard errors of branch lengths in a phylogenetic tree reconstructed without assuming equal rates of nucleotide substitution among different lineages.

A statistical method is developed for estimating the standard errors of branch lengths in a phylogenetic tree reconstructed without assuming equal rates of nucleotide substitution among different lineages. This method can be easily used for testing whether the length of an interior branch in a reconstructed tree is positive, i.e., whether the topology of the tree is correct. Computer simulations indicate that this method is appropriate for a statistical test. As an example, this method is applied to phylogenetic trees reconstructed for the four hominoid species: human, chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan. The results obtained show that the present method provides a powerful statistical test.     

Population dynamics of the japanese clouded apolloParnassius glacialis butler (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). I. changes in population size and related population parameters for three successive generations

1. Population dynamics of a univoltine butterfly Parnassius glacialis (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) was studied with mark-recapture methods for three successive generations in a hilly region in Kanazawa City, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan in 1981–1983.
2. Jolly (1965) andSeber's (1973) method was applied to the mark-recapture data to estimate population parameters (daily survival rate, longevity, population size, sex ratio, etc.).
3. Sampling ratios were at least 50% and 30% for males and females, respectively.
4. Mean daily survival rate for males ranged 0.81–0.86 and that for females 0.80–0.84. Mean longevity was about 4–7 days for the males and about 5 days for the females. Spiders killed more males than females. Maximum longevity for an individual recorded during the study was 31 days for males and 18 days for females.
5. Emergence of the butterflies was later and less synchronous in 1981 than in 1982 and 1983. This was thought to be due to later extinction of heavier snow in 1981 than in the other years.
6. The population remained relatively stable for the three successive generations, with estimated total numbers of 914, 1277, and 869.
7. Estimated sex ratio (% females) was 30–40% at emergence

     

Decomposition rate of ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) wood in the desert of southern California and its use in estimating adult survival by life-cycle graph analysis

Dead and downed ocotillos (Fouquieria splendens) are common in the Colorado Desert of southern California and pose a question concerning the life-span of adult plants that have been reported to be long-lived: if ocotillo is long-lived, decay rates must be very slow. Our study focused on decomposition and disintegration of above-ground ocotillo wood over 14 years to obtain a rate of change in dead mass. Disintegration rate was used in a new application of life-cycle graph analysis to calculate persistence time of carcasses, which in turn was used to estimate adult survival rates. We conclude that previous estimates of life spans may be too conservative and half-life of adult shrubs is over 200 years. Our approach to estimating adult survival from decay rates provides an independent test of survival transitions based on live plants for some species and so is an additional tool for developing life cycle models.     

A densitometrical method for the study of pattern formation in a ciliateChilodonella

Summary An easy and sensitive method is reported here for testing the similarities of individual patterns by photographically transforming maps of these patterns to given, deductively chosen conventions involving constant distances between selected reference points. A cumulative map is produced by loading all landmarks from a set of individual maps on to one sheet of paper. The use of various a priori conventions results in variable cumulative maps, which are then optically transformed on an analog digital converter, with additional input for optical picture processing. The densitometrical maps thus obtained may be compared as to the cumulative degree of areas of maximal and minimal density of landmarks. The best conventions are those that yield the map with the most contrast.Maps of spatial patterns of the sites of contractile vacuole pore (CVP) primordia in an early stage of divisional morphogenesis of the ciliateChilodonella steini were compared after four different transformations and adjustments of the same set of individual maps. The best focusing of the sites of CVP differentiation was achieved by use of the postoral axis, defined by the center of the oral apparatus and the posterior end of the cell as the scaling parameter. The composite domain map obtained by optical transformation of this cumulative map could distinguish the specific CVP territories observed in earlier work (Kaczanowska 1981). These results confirm earlier findings that indicated the site of the oral apparatus is an important reference point in CVP primordia positioning. They also strongly suggest the existence of an overriding scaling factor governing the positioning of sites of differentiation in both dimensions of the developmental field. The method of superposition and scaling of pattern maps is generally applicable to situations in which pattern elements appear at discrete points on a flat surface.