The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America

A better understanding of the relationship between the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Ni?o and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Ni?o forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.     

Effects of El Niño drought on seedling dynamics in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Northern Thailand

As El Niño is predicted to become stronger and more frequent in the future, it is crucial to understand how El Niño-induced droughts will affect tropical forests. Although many studies have focused on tropical rainforests, there is a paucity of studies on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), particularly in Asia, and few studies have focused on seedling dynamics, which are expected to be strongly affected by drought. Seedlings in SDTFs are generally more drought-tolerant than those in the rainforests, and the effects of El Niño-induced droughts may differ between SDTF and tropical rainforests. In this study, we explored the impact of El Niño-induced drought at an SDTF in northern Thailand by monitoring the seedling dynamics at monthly intervals for 7 years, including a period of strong El Niño. The effects were compared between two forest types in an SDTF: a deciduous dipterocarp forest (DDF), dominated by deciduous species, and an adjacent lower montane forest (LMF) with more evergreen species. El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality in both the forest types. The effect of drought was stronger in evergreen than in the deciduous species, resulting in higher mortality in the LMF during El Niño. However, El Niño increased seedling recruitment only in the DDF, mainly because of the massive recruitment of the deciduous oak, Quercus brandisiana (Fagaceae), which compensated for the mortality of seedlings in the DDF. As a result, El Niño increased seedling density in the DDF and decreased it in the LMF. This is the first long-term study to identify the differences in the impacts of El Niño on seedlings between the two forest types, and two leaf habits, evergreen and deciduous, in Southeast Asia. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter the species composition and spatial distribution of seedlings in Asian SDTFs.     

Drastic effects of El Niño on Galapagos pinnipeds

Summary Population dynamics of pinnipeds living in the tropical upwelling ecosystem of the Galapagos were strongly influenced by the 1982–83 Southern Oscillation-El Niño (EN) event which was the strongest recorded in this century. The Galapagos fur seal (Arctocephalus galapagoensis) population lost the four youngest year classes (1980–1983) almost entirely and approximately 30% of the adult females and non-territorial males. Mortality of large territorial males was almost 100%. Most of the 1982 year class of Galapagos sea lions (Zalophus californianus wollebaeki) died and there was a much lower pup production in the breeding season following EN. Recurrent EN events must strongly influence age structure and average population size of these and other otariid species depending on tropical upwelling ecosystems.     

El Niño,volcanism, and global climate

The June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines produced one of the greatest volcanic aerosols in the last hundred years. The estimated net decrease of radiation may have peaked at 10% in the tropics. What was the impact of the Pinatubo aerosol on regional and global climate? Besides the expected net cooling of the average global surface temperature, correlation studies indicate that other types of climate anomalies may also be expected. These include the appearance of an El Niño event, decreased Indian monsoon rainfall, fewer tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean in 1991–1993, and normal to above normal winter rainfall in California in 1991/92, all of which were observed. A proposed physical mechanism for the almost-simultaneous occurrence of this constellation of climate anomalies is presented. The results of correlation studies between low-latitude volcanic aerosols and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation are presented in some detail as one example. The correlation between Indian monsoon rainfall and tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean is also shown and is updated for the most recent 5 years.     

Fishes of floodplain habitats of the Fly River system, Papua New Guinea, and changes associated with El Niño droughts and algal blooms

Biological monitoring of the Fly River system in Papua New Guinea has shown that floodplain habitats (oxbow lakes, blocked valley lakes and seasonally inundated grassed floodplain) support diverse and abundant populations of freshwater fishes. Since monitoring first commenced in the early 1980's, a total of 66 fish species representing 33 families has been sampled, with gillnets and rotenone, from a range of sites located on the floodplains of the Fly and Strickland rivers. The fish fauna was dominated by catfishes in the families Ariidae (11 species) and Plotosidae (7 species), with aquatic invertivores being the dominant feeding group. Herring species (Nematalosa spp.) were often very abundant in the oxbow lakes, forming 66% of the total catch in all the floodplain habitats. The fish communities in the oxbow lakes and blocked valley lakes were distinctly different, with several of the smaller fish species being more abundant in the blocked valley lakes, while the oxbow lakes supported more of the larger predatory species. Catches in the oxbow lakes were also generally higher and more diverse than the blocked valley lakes or grassed floodplain sites. Since the commencement of monitoring, catches from the floodplain sites have varied considerably, both spatially and temporally. Reduced catches seen at some sites are probably associated with natural climatic factors, particularly El Niño-induced droughts and algal blooms. Introduced species and increased commercial and artisanal fishing may also be affecting stocks of native fish. Fish populations were shown to recover only slowly in lakes affected by severe drought conditions, with extensive mats of floating grasses hindering fish recolonisation. Fish stocks in a lake affected by an algal bloom recovered more quickly than stocks in lakes affected by drought.     

Effects of El Niño-driven environmental variability on black turtle migration to Peruvian foraging grounds

We analyzed sea temperature as an environmental factor, in association with ENSO, affecting the migration of East Pacific black turtle, Chelonia mydas (=Chelonia agassizii Bocourt), to its foraging areas and its feeding ecology at San Andrés, Peru. A 19-year sea turtle landing database (1970–1988) was constructed to associate landing fluctuations with environmental variability represented by the Peruvian Oscillation Index. A positive correlation between them (r = 0.75, P < 0.05) indicated that exceptionally large black turtle landings occurred in San Andrés port during El Niño episodes. Warmer waters (SST 22–28°C) approached near the Peruvian coast during El Niño episodes, thus facilitating black turtle access to this area. Furthermore, during El Niño 1987, large juvenile and adult black turtles, known to be primarily herbivorous, fed mainly on the scyphozoan jellyfish Chrysaora plocamia Péron &; Lesueur, which was very abundant during this event. It is likely that black turtles exploited this resource opportunistically. Inter-annual environmental variability, driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation, has profound consequences for the ecology of the endangered black turtle, which should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities on its population dynamics.     

Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand

BackgroundSeveral factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world''s most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.ConclusionThe underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.     

El Niño effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems

New studies are showing that the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has major implications for the functioning of different ecosystems, ranging from deserts to tropical rain forests. ENSO-induced pulses of enhanced plant productivity can cascade upward through the food web invoking unforeseen feedbacks, and can cause open dryland ecosystems to shift to permanent woodlands. These insights suggest that the predicted change in extreme climatic events resulting from global warming could profoundly alter biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Our increasing ability to predict El Ni?o effects can be used to enhance management strategies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems.     

Effects of seedling size, El Niño drought, seedling density, and distance to nearest conspecific adult on 6-year survival of Ocotea whitei seedlings in Panamá

We present an analysis of the long-term survival of two cohorts of seedlings of the tropical canopy tree Ocotea whitei (Lauraceae) on a 1-ha plot of mature, lowland moist forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panamá. In 1980, we counted an even-aged cohort of seedlings that germinated in 1979, then measured and tagged survivors in 1981. We also measured and tagged a second, smaller cohort of seedlings that germinated in 1981. We followed the subsequent survival of all seedlings through 1985. Seedling mortality was phenotypically, temporally, and spatially non-random. Important correlates of non-random mortality included: (1) seedling size and age, (2) an El Niño drought, and (3) biotic neighborhood. Larger and older seedlings survived better than smaller and younger seedlings, respectively, and the El Niño-related drought of 1982-1983 was associated with elevated mortality rates. Seedling density, which was strongly correlated with the proximity to the nearest conspecific adult, increased mortality. The observed mortality patterns suggest that processes consistent with the Janzen-Connell hypothesis operate during the recruitment phase of O. whitei population dynamics. However, the processes causing the observed density- and distance-dependent mortality may vary with factors such as total seed number, seedling size, and climatic variation, making it difficult to determine whether time-integrated seedling-to-adult spacing mechanisms other than self-thinning operate on a given plant population. After 6 years in the hectare studied, survivors remained densest and most numerous underneath the adult trees. We conclude that only long-term demographic data, collected at a variety of scales on a variety of species, will ultimately answer the question: do Janzen-Connell effects contribute substantially to structuring tropical forests?     

The impact of El Niño events on populations of mesopelagic hydromedusae

For over 10 years, the midwater ecology group at MBARI has compiled video and accompanying physical data with the ROV Ventana operating in mesopelagic depths of Monterey Bay, CA in order to elucidate patterns in midwater ecology. Two El Niño events have occurred during this time period, in 1991–92 and in 1997–98. The oceanographic metric of spiciness combines temperature and salinity data into one sensitive measurement. Although temperature and salinity measurements alone revealed no clear patterns, clear signals of spiciness were observed that corresponded to water mass intrusions into the deep waters of the bay during the two El Niño events. During these events, some seldom-seen species were observed in high numbers in the midwater, while historically common species became rare. During non-El Niño years, the leptomedusa Mitrocoma cellularia(A. Agassiz, 1865) was common in the surface waters (0–50 m) of Monterey Bay, but it was not abundant at depth, while the trachymedusa Colobonema sericeum Vanhöffen, 1902 was found in relatively high numbers at mesopelagic depths. During the last two El Niño events, M. cellulariawas observed in higher numbers at mesopelagic depths, whereas C. sericeum was scarce. M. cellularia was found in a wider range of temperatures, salinities, and dissolved oxygen values than was C. sericeum. Transport and tolerance hypotheses are proposed to explain differences in the presence and numerical density of the medusae.     

Effects of the 1991-92 El Niño on scleractinian corals of the Costa Rican central Pacific coast

Coral communities on the central Pacific coast of Costa Rica were affected during the 1991-92 El Ni?o warming event. More than 57% of all observed colonies at three localities (Parque Nacional Manuel Antonio, Punta Cambutal, and Parque Marino Ballena) were bleached. Mortality during this El Ni?o was much lower (approximately 9%) than in previous events. Psammocora spp. accounted for approximately 66% of dead corals, while massive (Porites lobota, Pavona spp.) and branching (Pocillopora spp.) for approximately 34%. Our results suggest that the observed bleaching in P. lobata was related to zooxanthellar densities and not to changes in pigment concentrations: only chlorophyll a varied between normally pigmented and bleached colonies at one locality (Ballena). Site differences in zooxanthellar densities or their pigment concentrations, may not be the result of the bleaching event itself, because a percentage of dead corals and zooxanthellar densities of bleached colonies seems to follow a trend with the exposure to tidal regimes and currents at each site. Local oceanographic conditions can be influencing the zooxanthellar densities and their response to the warming, together with intrinsic differences between colonies as well. The impact of this event can be considered serious given the short period of time that elapsed between El Ni?o related mortalities and the slow reefs recovery, the mode of reproduction of reef building species, and the anthropogenic-originated disturbances which affect the coral communities and reefs of the Costa Rican central Pacific coast.     

El Niño droughts and their effects on tree species composition and diversity in tropical rain forests

In this study I investigated the effects of the extreme, 1997/98 El Niño related drought on tree mortality and understorey light conditions of logged and unlogged tropical rain forest in the Indonesian province of East Kalimantan (Borneo). My objectives were to test (1) whether drought had a significant effect on tree mortality and understorey light conditions, (2) whether this effect was greater in logged than in undisturbed forest, (3) if the expected change in tree mortality and light conditions had an effect on Macaranga pioneer seedling and sapling densities, and (4) which (a)biotic factors influenced tree mortality during the drought. The 1997/1998 drought led to an additional tree mortality of 11.2, 18.1, and 22.7% in undisturbed, old logged and recently logged forest, respectively. Mortality was highest in logged forests, due to extremely high mortality of pioneer Macaranga trees (65.4%). Canopy openness was significantly higher during the drought than during the non-drought year (6.0, 8.6 and 10.4 vs 3.7, 3.8 and 3.7 in undisturbed, old logged and recently logged forest, respectively) and was positively correlated with the number of dead standing trees. The increase in light in the understorey was accompanied by a 30 to 300-fold increase in pioneer Macaranga seedling densities. Factors affecting tree mortality during drought were (1) tree species successional status, (2) tree size, and (3) tree location with respect to soil moisture. Tree density and basal area per surface unit had no influence on tree mortality during drought. The results of this study show that extreme droughts, such as those associated with El Niño events, can affect the tree species composition and diversity of tropical forests in two ways: (1) by disproportionate mortality of certain tree species groups and tree size classes, and (2) by changing the light environment in the forest understorey, thereby affecting the recruitment and growth conditions of small and immature trees.     

El Niño effects on soil seed bank dynamics in north-central Chile

The soil seed bank was monitored in four 75×75 m plots over 6 years (1990–1995) in an arid thorn scrub community in north-central Chile. Sixty-six species were identified. Total seed densities ranged from 2,000 to 42,000/m². Average mass of shrub seeds was significantly greater than that of other growth-forms. Between 70 and 90% of the seeds were less than 1 mg, with those in the 0.51–1.00 mg size class being most numerous. Seed densities were highly variable between years as well as within years, but were also closely associated with plant cover patterns and rainfall regime. Higher seed densities were found in wet years, and in samples taken in early summer and early autumn (i.e., after seed set); the lowest seed densities were in late winter (i.e., after annual plant germination). The annual plant species with the highest cover were also the most abundant in the soil seed bank and exhibited the largest seed density fluctuations. In general, seed densities were 5- to 10-fold higher during the 1991–1992 El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) years than non-ENSO years, showing the importance of this phenomenon for seed bank replenishment in the arid region of Chile.     

Repercussions of El Niño: drought causes extinction and the breakdown of mutualism in Borneo

Figs (Ficus spp.) and their species-specific pollinators, the fig wasps (Agaonidae), have coevolved one of the most intricate interactions found in nature, in which the fig wasps, in return for pollination services, raise their offspring in the fig inflorescence. Fig wasps, however, have very short adult lives and hence are dependent on the near-continuous production of inflorescences to maintain their populations. From January to March 1998 northern Borneo suffered a very severe drought linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation event of 1997-1998. This caused a substantial break in the production of inflorescences on dioecious figs and led to the local extinction of their pollinators at Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia. Most pollinators had not recolonized six months after the drought and, given the high level of endemism and wide extent of the drought, some species may be totally extinct. Cascading effects on vertebrate seed dispersers, for which figs are often regarded as keystone resources, and the tree species dependent on their services are also likely. This has considerable implications for the maintenance of biodiversity under a scenario of climate change and greater climatic extremes.     

Effects of capture,shearing, and release on the ecology and behavior of wild vicuñas

The goals of sustainable use of wildlife include minimizing long term deleterious impacts of management. We evaluated the ethoecological and demographic responses of wild vicuñas (Vicugna vicugna) to capture, shearing, and release in northern Argentina, as well as effects on behavior, by comparing captured and shorn versus non-captured animals for 2 yr after capture events. We observed subtle and short-term changes in the movement behavior of individuals, likely due to thermal and behavioral stress following capture. We did not observe changes in survival and birth rates, social organization, or distribution of animals following capture. Therefore, we concluded that the capture techniques used resulted in low impacts on the wild vicuña population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Asynchronous Response of Tropical Forest Leaf Phenology to Seasonal and El Ni?o-Driven Drought

The Hawaiian Islands are an ideal location to study the response of tropical forests to climate variability because of their extreme isolation in the middle of the Pacific, which makes them especially sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Most research examining the response of tropical forests to drought or El Niño have focused on rainforests, however, tropical dry forests cover a large area of the tropics and may respond very differently than rainforests. We use satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from February 2000-February 2009 to show that rainforests and dry forests in the Hawaiian Islands exhibit asynchronous responses in leaf phenology to seasonal and El Niño-driven drought. Dry forest NDVI was more tightly coupled with precipitation compared to rainforest NDVI. Rainforest cloud frequency was negatively correlated with the degree of asynchronicity (Δ_NDVI) between forest types, most strongly at a 1-month lag. Rainforest green-up and dry forest brown-down was particularly apparent during the 2002–003 El Niño. The spatial pattern of NDVI response to the NINO 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index during 2002–2003 showed that the leeward side exhibited significant negative correlations to increased SSTs, whereas the windward side exhibited significant positive correlations to increased SSTs, most evident at an 8 to 9-month lag. This study demonstrates that different tropical forest types exhibit asynchronous responses to seasonal and El Niño-driven drought, and suggests that mechanisms controlling dry forest leaf phenology are related to water-limitation, whereas rainforests are more light-limited.     

Prokaryotic community dynamics and nitrogen-cycling genes in an oxygen-deficient upwelling system during La Niña and El Niño conditions

Dissolved oxygen regulates microbial distribution and nitrogen cycling and, therefore, ocean productivity and Earth's climate. To date, the assembly of microbial communities in relation to oceanographic changes due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains poorly understood in oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). The Mexican Pacific upwelling system supports high productivity and a permanent OMZ. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution of the prokaryotic community and nitrogen-cycling genes was investigated along a repeated transect subjected to varying oceanographic conditions associated with La Niña in 2018 and El Niño in 2019. The community was more diverse during La Niña and in the aphotic OMZ, dominated by the Subtropical Subsurface water mass, where the highest abundances of nitrogen-cycling genes were found. The largest proportion of the Gulf of California water mass during El Niño provided warmer, more oxygenated, and nutrient-poor waters towards the coast, leading to a significant increase of Synechococcus in the euphotic layer compared with the opposite conditions during La Niña. These findings suggest that prokaryotic assemblages and nitrogen genes are linked to local physicochemical conditions (e.g. light, oxygen, nutrients), but also to oceanographic fluctuations associated with ENSO phases, indicating the crucial role of climate variability in microbial community dynamics in this OMZ.     

Seasonal, El Niño and longer term changes in flower and seed production in a moist tropical forest

It has recently been reported that humid tropical forests are changing rapidly in response to global anthropogenic change and that these forests experience greater tree mortality and even fire during droughts associated with El Niño events. The former reports are controversial largely because a single method has been used – repeated censuses of tree plots. The latter reports focus on recent extreme El Niño events. Here, we show that flower and seed production both increase during El Niño events in an old-growth tropical forest in Panama. Flower production, but not seed production, has also increased over the past 18 years. The sustained increase in flower production was greater for 33 liana species than for 48 tree species. These results indicate that moderate El Niño events favour seed production, document long-term increases in flower production for the first time, and corroborate long-term increases in the importance of lianas using independent methods. Changes in levels of solar irradiance might contribute to all three patterns.     

Seed and seedling ecology of piñon and juniper species in the pygmy woodlands of western North America

Knowledge of the seed and seedling ecology of the piñon and juniper woodlands of western North America is essential for understanding both the northward migration and expansion of the woodlands during the Holocene (< 11,500 B.P.), and the accelerated expansion of the woodlands since settlement of the West by Anglo-Americans around 200 years ago. We follow the fates of seeds and seedlings of the different piñon and juniper species within the woodlands from seed development to seedling establishment, and discuss the implications of this information for the past and present expansion of the woodlands. While seed development requires about two and one-half years in pinons, it is species-dependent in junipers and can take one, two, or even three years. Substantial seed losses can occur during seed development due to developmental constraints, and before or after seed maturation as a result of insects, pathogens, or predatory animals. In piñon pines, the primary seed dispersers are scatterhoarding birds (corvids) and rodents that harvest seeds from the trees or after seed fall and cache them in the soil. In contrast, most junipers appear to be dispersed primarily by frugivorous birds and mammals that ingest the seeds and defecate them onto the soil surface. We have recently documented that scatter-hoarding rodents also disperse juniper seeds. Disperser effectiveness, or the contribution a disperser makes to the future reproduction of a plant population, may vary among species of piñons and especially junipers. Piñon seeds are short-lived and exhibit little dormancy, and they probably only germinate the spring following dispersal. Juniper seeds are long-lived and seed dispersal can occur over one or more years. Seed germination can be delayed for several years due to impermeable seed coats, embryo dormancy, or the presence of inhibitors. Seedling establishment of piñon pines is facilitated by nurse plants but, while junipers often establish beneath nurse plants, they are capable of establishing in open environments. In the southwestern United States, higher establishment of juniper occurs in open environments due to more favorable precipitation, and competition may be more important than facilitation in determining establishment. When considering the mechanisms involved in the past and present expansion of the woodlands, short-distance dispersal, local population growth, and long-distance dispersal are all important. Different classes of dispersers, some of which appear to have coevolved with the tree species, appear to be responsible for local (short-distance) vs. long-distance dispersal in pinons and junipers. Because ecotones form the interface between the woodlands and adjacent communities, they can provide valuable information on both the seed dispersal and seedling establishment processes responsible for tree expansion. Disturbance regimes and, recently, the effects of humans on those regimes have major effects on the expansion and contraction of the woodlands. Before Anglo-American settlement, fires occurred as frequently as every 50–100 years throughout much of the woodlands. During this century, fire frequencies have been reduced due to the indirect effects of livestock grazing and the direct effects of removing Native Americans from the ecosystem and implementing active fire-prevention programs. The result has been an increase in tree-dominated successional stages at the expense of grass-dominated stages. Various management techniques, including controlled burning and chaining, have been implemented to reduce tree dominance, but their effects depend largely on the life histories of the tree species and the disturbance characteristics. Several areas relating to the seed and seedling ecology of the piñon and juniper require additional research if we are to truly understand the dynamics of the woodlands.     

Impacts of El Niño related drought and forest fires on sun bear fruit resources in lowland dipterocarp forest of East Borneo

Droughts and forest fires, induced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, have increased considerably over the last decades affecting millions of hectares of rainforest. We investigated the effects of the 1997–1998 forest fires and drought, associated with an exceptionally severe ENSO event, on fruit species important in the diet of Malayan sun bears (Helarctos malayanus) in lowland dipterocarp forest, East Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Densities of sun bear fruit trees (≥10 cm DBH) were reduced by ～80%, from 167±41 (SD) fruit trees ha^?1 in unburned forest to 37±18 fruit trees ha^?1 in burned forest. Densities of hemi-epiphytic figs, one of the main fallback resources for sun bears during periods of food scarcity, declined by 95% in burned forest. Species diversity of sun bear food trees decreased by 44% in burned forest. Drought also affected sun bear fruit trees in unburned primary forest, with elevated mortality rates for the duration of 2 years, returning to levels reported as normal in region in the third year after the ENSO event. Mortality in unburned forest near the burn-edge was higher (25±5% of trees ≥10 cm DBH dead) than in the forest interior (14±5% of trees), indicating possible edge effects. Combined effects of fire and drought in burned primary forest resulted in an overall tree mortality of 78±11% (≥10 cm DBH) 33 months after the fire event. Disturbance due to fires has resulted in a serious decline of fruit resources for sun bears and, due to the scale of fire damage, in a serious decline of prime sun bear habitat. Recovery of sun bear populations in these burned-over forests will depend on regeneration of the forest, its future species composition, and efforts to prevent subsequent fire events.