Predation on endemic Hawaiian land snails by the invasive snail Oxychilus alliarius

The native land snails of the Hawaiian Islands have suffered numerous extinctions and continue to decline rapidly. A leading cause of these extinctions has been the impact of non-native predators. Oxychilus alliarius is a European predatory snail that has been in Hawaii since at least 1937 and has become one of the most abundant invasive snails in the islands. It is a facultative carnivore and will also consume non-animal food. However, this species has been mostly ignored as a threat and the majority of conservation attention has been focused on Euglandina rosea, the Rosy Wolf Snail. Here we report predation by O. alliarius on two rare and endemic Hawaiian snail species: Kaala subrutila (Helicarionidae) and Pleuropoma cf. sandwichiensis (Helicinidae). The wide distribution of O. alliarius in Hawaii, its high abundance, and now compelling evidence that it preys on native (and probably endangered) snails, indicate that it could be a much greater threat than previously thought.     

Reproductive cycle of Leptaxis caldeirarum,a locally endangered Azorean land snail

Summary

The land snail Leptaxis caldeirarum(Morelet and Drouet, 1857), a hermaphrodite Hygromiidae species, endemic from São Miguel Island (Azores), is geographically limited to a range of 31 km², occupying an area of about 14 km² A preliminary study confirmed the locally endangered status of the species, raising the possibility that it could reach the “critically in danger” status, the most serious category in IUCN. A population from Ramal dos Mosteiros was studied all year round in order to elucidate its reproductive cycle and to test the validity of the total weight of the animal and the maximum diameter of the shell as diagnostic parameters for maturation. Gonadal maturation of L. caldeirarum proceeds from late winter to early summer. Intense gametogenesis takes place from January until May and the snail is apparently in a reproductive condition to copulate from late spring onwards. The strong correlation observed between the relative volumetric density of mature gametes and the maximum diameter of the shell suggests that the reproductive status of the species can be inferred from the latter parameter. This may be of major importance in future studies, minimizing potential damage to already unstable populations, and facilitating the development of conservation strategies.     

Polymorphic microsatellite DNA markers in the endangered land snail,Trichia caelata (Gastropoda,Stylommatophora)

Eight novel polymorphic microsatellite loci are presented for the endangered land snail Trichia caelata, a rare species endemic to the Northwestern Jura mountains, Switzerland. The number of alleles per locus ranged from six to 17. At seven loci, the expected heterozygosity differed significantly from observed heterozygosity. No evidence for linkage disequilibrium was detected between locus pairs. We are currently using these markers to investigate the genetic population structure of T. caelata in its restricted distribution area.     

Combining population genetics,species distribution modelling and field assessments to understand a species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to biodiversity. Multidisciplinary approaches that combine population genetics and species distribution modelling to assess these threats and recommend conservation actions are critical but rare. Combined, these methods provide independent verification and a more compelling case for developing conservation actions. This study integrates these data streams together with field assessments and spatial analyses to develop future genetic resource management recommendations. The study species was Callistemon teretifolius (Needle Bottlebrush), a shrub species endemic to the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Chloroplast microsatellite and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism data were combined with species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), spatial analysis and field assessment to evaluate climate change vulnerability. Two major genetic groups were identified (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges). Populations in the Flinders Ranges, especially the Southern Flinders Ranges exhibited the highest genetic diversity, indicating a possible genetic refugium. Lower genetic diversity to the south in the Mount Lofty Ranges and north in the Gammon Ranges may be due to post‐glacial expansion into these areas from the Flinders Ranges or loss of alleles. Low levels of contemporary gene flow were identified, which suggests Callistemon teretifolius may have a limited capacity to respond to climate change through migration. Range restrictions were predicted for all future climates, especially in the north. It is likely that C. teretifolius will be adversely affected by climate change, due to limited gene flow, predicted range restriction and loss of suitable habitat. The Southern Flinders Ranges should be a priority for conservation because it contains the highest number of individuals and genetic diversity. We recommend monitoring and adaptive management involving restoration in the Southern Flinders Ranges, potentially incorporating genetic translocations from other areas to capture diversity, to assist C. teretifolius to adapt to climate change.     

High resilience of Mediterranean land snail communities to wildfires

In the Mediterranean region, wildfires have devastating effects on animals with limited mobility. With their poor dispersal abilities, their habitats on vegetation and in litter, and their sensitivity to humidity and shade, we expected land snails to be an interesting model to assess short, medium and long-term impact of fires on fauna biodiversity and their resilience. Stratified sampling was carried out on 12 sampling sites in garrigues and forests of Provence (southeastern France), according to fire regime (number of fires, fire intervals and age of the last fire) over the past 30 years. Data were investigated using diversity indexes, Kruskal–Wallis test, dendrogram of affinities and Correspondence Analysis (CA). We found, however, that Mediterranean land snail communities are particularly resilient to fires. Although abundance is drastically reduced in the short-term, species richness and community diversity are preserved provided that the time lapse between two successive fires is longer than the time required for recovery (i.e. around 5 years). This high community resilience in the short-term may be partly due to ecological and ethological aptitudes of land snails. However, these astonishing results, which have implications for conservation biology, are mainly due to the presence, within burned areas, of cryptic refuges that allow initial land snail survival, malacofauna persistence after successive fires and consistent biogeographical patterns in the long-term.     

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of three endemic Aloe species critically endangered in East Africa

Climate change has had a significant impact on natural ecosystems and endemic species around the world and substantial impacts are expected in the future. As a result, knowing how climate change affects endemic species can help in putting forward the necessary conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in species distributions under different climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic in biological conservation. This study aimed to use the global circulation model (CMIP5) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for three critically endangered Aloe species endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in order to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 and 2070. We used two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to project the contraction of suitable habitats for Aloe ballyi Reynolds, A. classenii Reynolds, and A. penduliflora Baker. Precipitation, temperature and environmental variables (Potential evapotranspiration, land cover, soil sedimentary and solar radiation) have had a significant impact on the current distribution of all the three species. Although suitable habitat expansion and contraction are predicted for all the species, loss of original suitable habitat is expected to be extensive. Climate change is expected to devastate >44% and 34% of the original habitats of A. ballyi and A. classenii respectively. Based on our findings, we propose that areas predicted to contract due to climate change should be designated as key protection zones for Aloe species conservation.     

Estimating and conserving patterns of invertebrate diversity: a test case of New Zealand land snails

Aim Using New Zealand land snails as a case study, we evaluated recent spatial modelling approaches for the analysis of diversity in species‐rich invertebrate groups. Applications and prospects for improved conservation assessment were investigated. Location New Zealand. Methods The study used a spatially extensive and taxonomically comprehensive, plot‐based dataset on community structure in New Zealand land snails. Generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction (GRASP) was used to model and predict species richness as a function of environmental variables (including aspects of climate, soils and vegetation). Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) was used to model turnover in species composition in relation to environmental and geographical distances, and to assess community similarity and the representativeness of the reserve network. Results Observed land snail richness in 20 × 20 m plots ranged from 1 to 74 (mean 17.5). The GRASP model explained a modest 27% of the variation in richness. The GDM model explained 57% of the variation in species turnover and indicated approximately equal amounts related to environmental (Cody’s beta diversity) and geographical distance (Cody’s gamma diversity). Temperature and moisture were the most important environmental variables. Results indicate that snail distributions are not only sorted by environment but are also strongly influenced by historical effects consistent with those expected of poorly dispersing taxa that have persisted in refugia during past climatic change. The GDM model enabled spatial classifications of snail communities, highlighting diverse communities in heterogeneous regions, such as the South Island mountains, and also enabled continuous depictions of community similarity and adequacy of New Zealand’s protected natural areas network. Main conclusions The GRASP and GDM analyses allowed us to model and depict spatial patterns of diversity in land snail communities involving 845 species, and produce community classifications and estimates of community similarity. These tools advance conservation assessment in species‐rich groups, but require further conceptual and methodological development.     

Exceptionally poor land snail fauna of central Yakutia (NE Russia): climatic and habitat determinants of species richness

There is an ongoing debate on the causes of the latitudinal diversity gradient, but diversity decline towards high latitudes is poorly documented for many invertebrate taxa. Therefore, we sampled land snail assemblages at 79 sites and in various habitat types in central Yakutia, a region with extremely continental, cool and dry climate. We tested whether habitats lacking suitable shelters for winter survival harbour less species than those with vegetation cover that softens climatic extremes. Both local species diversity and regional species diversity were extremely low: 13 species were recorded in total with an average of 1.4 species per site. While the majority of grassland sites were without snails (26 of 34 sites), forest sites supported at least one snail species in most cases (38 of 45 sites). Within grasslands, snail occurrences were associated with a higher herb-layer biomass. Numbers of snail species correlated with the amount of available calcium only in forests, in which species accumulation towards more favourable habitats was possible due to softening of climate harshness. As minute snails are known to be effective passive dispersers and the study area was not glaciated during the last glacial stage, there was certainly enough time for colonization of all favourable habitats. Our results suggest climatically driven limitations of both local and regional land snail diversity in central Yakutia. We conclude that the hypothesis of climate harshness remains the most probable explanation of a sharp drop in land snail diversity in high-latitude areas with cold climate.     

Climate change hastens the conservation urgency of an endangered ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change.     

Gut bacterial communities in the giant land snail Achatina fulica and their modification by sugarcane-based diet

The invasive land snail Achatina fulica is one of the most damaging agricultural pests worldwide representing a potentially serious threat to natural ecosystems and human health. This species is known to carry parasites and harbors a dense and metabolically active microbial community; however, little is known about its diversity and composition. Here, we assessed for the first time the complexity of bacterial communities occurring in the digestive tracts of field-collected snails (FC) by using culture-independent molecular analysis. Crop and intestinal bacteria in FC were then compared to those from groups of snails that were reared in the laboratory (RL) on a sugarcane-based diet. Most of the sequences recovered were novel and related to those reported for herbivorous gut. Changes in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were observed when the snails were fed a high-sugar diet, suggesting that the snail gut microbiota can influence the energy balance equation. Furthermore, this study represents a first step in gaining a better understanding of land snail gut microbiota and shows that this is a complex holobiont system containing diverse, abundant and active microbial communities.     

气候速度影响下中国周边海域鲨鱼保护优先区识别

鲨鱼在气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响下面临着种群衰退的风险,开展鲨鱼保护优先区研究是鲨鱼保护行动的重要工作.将气候速度引入鲨鱼保护优先区的识别过程,旨在阐明中国周边海域鲨鱼现状保护成效和保护空缺,并预测气候速度影响下的鲨鱼保护优先区空间格局及其变化趋势.以集成物种分布模型模拟的146种鲨鱼栖息地作为保护对象,以2015年至2100年两种气候变化情景下的气候速度作为保护的机会成本,基于系统保护规划理论模拟现状和未来情景下的鲨鱼保护优先区选址方案.研究结果表明：（1）长江口以南至台湾海峡和北部湾近岸海域为鲨鱼多样性分布的主要区域,台湾海峡区域亦为珍稀濒危物种的重要分布区;（2）在两种气候情景下,南海中南部将面临较高的气候变化风险,而长江口以南至珠江口的近岸海域气候速度均相对较低,提示了这些区域或能成为气候变化影响下的生物避难所;（3）现有保护区仅保护了1.33%的海域和不到4%的鲨鱼物种,尚存在较大的保护空缺.当保护海域比例提升至10%时,可覆盖绝大多数鲨鱼物种.而当比例提升至30%时,珍稀濒危物种的栖息地将得到有效保护;（4）气候变化影响下保护优先区选址将发生不同程度的变化,尤其是在中国南海区域,如在保护规划时兼顾气候速度,可在满足相似保护目标的前提下减少保护优先区内25%以上的气候压力,以使其具有较强的应对气候变化潜力。     

Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate‐driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate‐driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.     

The determinants of land snail diversity along a tropical elevational gradient: insularity,geometry and niches

Aim We investigated the patterns of species richness in land snails and slugs along a tropical elevational gradient and whether these patterns correlate with area, elevation, geographic constraints, and productivity. We did so both at the scale at which land snail population processes take place and at the coarser scale of elevational zones. Location Mount Kinabalu (4096 m) and the adjacent Mount Tambuyukon (2588 m) in Kinabalu Park, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Methods We used an effort‐controlled sampling protocol to determine land snail and slug species richness in 142 plots of 0.04 ha at elevations ranging from 570 to 4096 m. Extents of elevational ranges were determined by interpolation, extended where appropriate at the lower end with data from lowlands outside the study area. We used regression analysis to study the relationships between species density and richness on the one hand and elevation and area on the other. This was done for point data as well as for data combined into 300‐m elevational intervals. Results Species density (based on the individual samples) showed a decline with elevation. Elevational range length profiles revealed that range lengths are reduced at greater elevations and that a Rapoport effect is absent. Diversity showed a mild mid‐domain effect on Kinabalu, but not on Tambuyukon. When the data were combined into 300‐m elevational intervals, richness correlated more strongly with elevation than with area. Ecomorphospace was seen to shrink with increasing elevation. Main conclusions The elevational species richness patterns show the combined effects of (1) reduced niche diversity at elevations with lower productivity and (2) historical events in which the upward migration of lowland species as well as the speciation of highland endemics took place.     

Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

Past pasture management affects the land snail diversity in nutrient-poor calcareous grasslands

Changes in agriculture (intensification or abandonment) have resulted in a dramatical reduction of semi-natural grasslands in Central Europe in the 20th century. Recent management actions aim to restore overgrown and formerly fertilized nutrient-poor grasslands. Former land use is known to influence the present-day vegetation. Similar information is not available for animals with low dispersal ability. We investigated the effect of pasture management history over a period of 55 years on the present-day land snail diversity in 20 dry, nutrient-poor grasslands in the Swiss Jura mountains. Snails were recorded in pastures left unmanaged for 10–40 years but recently cleared from overgrowing shrubs, in pastures fertilized for 15–25 years but recently managed extensively (no fertilizer), and in pastures which have been extensively managed throughout (=control). Past shrub cover had a negative effect on the total number of snail species and the number of red-listed individuals. Former use of fertilizer reduced red-listed species and individuals and changed the snail community. Three species (Vitrina pellucida, Helicella itala and Abida secale) were found less frequently in formerly fertilized pastures than in extensive pastures. Our results show that changes in pasture use for a period of 10–40 years caused long-term alterations of the land snail fauna.     

High population differentiation in the rock-dwelling land snail (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Trochulus caelatus</Emphasis>) endemic to the Swiss Jura Mountains

Understanding patterns of genetic structure is fundamental for developing successful management programmes for isolated populations of threatened species. Trochulus caelatus is a small terrestrial snail endemic to calcareous rock cliffs in the Northwestern Swiss Jura Mountains. Eight microsatellite loci were used to assess the effect of habitat isolation on genetic population structure and gene flow among nine populations occurring on distinct cliffs. We found a high genetic differentiation among populations (mean F _ST = 0.254) indicating that the populations are strongly isolated. Both allelic richness and effective population size were positively correlated with the size of the cliffs. Our findings support the hypothesis that T. caelatus survived on ice-free cliffs during the Pleistocene glacier advancements from the Alps. Due to the establishment of beech and pine forest under recent, temperate climate conditions, dispersal between cliffs is no longer possible for rock-dwelling snails such as T. caelatus. Our results provide basic data for developing a conservation action plan for this endangered gastropod species.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

History, island area and habitat availability determine land snail species richness of Aegean islands

Aim We examined the species-area relation of Aegean land snails, comparing different models to describe the relation. By examining those factors other than area that may also affect species richness, we tested whether the Aegean land snail fauna was more influenced by equilibrial migration and colonization processes, or rather is conservative and relictual. Location The Aegean archipelago (Greece). Methods Sixty-five islands were examined. Data were taken from own collections and from literature sources. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the null hypothesis of no relationship between species richness and island area, elevation, distance to the next larger island, and the presence and extent of calcareous substrate. Results The single most important factor determining land snail species number was area. While colonization-extinction dynamics have frequently been cited to explain this result, this conclusion was not tenable in this study as it was contradicted by species number not being related to the islands’ distances to neighbouring larger islands, after accounting for other factors affecting species number. We also found that habitat diversity affected species richness even after accounting for the effects of area: both increased elevation and greater extent of calcareous substrate on islands resulted in higher species number. This effect was most likely due to the fact that particular ecological conditions increased the probability that particular species could survive on an island. We compared the utility of the power and extreme-value function models of the species-area relation and found that both gave substantially the same results. However, fitting the power function model using nonlinear regression was of questionable utility. Main conclusions We conclude that the snail fauna of the Aegean is relictual, not equilibrial. The unusually high number of land snail species found on Crete is consistent with this conclusion. Crete is a currently united island which was separated into at least six smaller islands for 7–9 million years during the Neogene. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that Crete still hosts a large number of endemic species of these paleoislands, resulting in a total number of species in excess of what would be expected based on area alone.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.