Pre-Positioning Disaster Response Facilities and Relief Items

ABSTRACT

Large-scale disasters cause enormous damage to people living in the affected areas. Providing relief quickly to the affected is a critical issue in recovering the effects of a disaster. Pre-disaster planning has an important role on reducing the arrival time of relief items to the affected areas and efficiently allocating them. In this study, a mixed integer programming model is proposed in order to pre-position warehouses throughout a potential affected area and determine the amount of relief items to be held in those warehouses. Time between the strike of the disaster and arrival of relief items at the affected areas is aimed to be minimized. In addition, using probabilistic constraints, the model ensures that relief items arrive at affected areas within a certain time window with certain reliability. Considering instable fault lines on which Istanbul is located, the proposed model is applied to the Istanbul case for pre-positioning warehouses a priori to the possible expected large-scale earthquake.     

The emergence of the social‐ecological restoration concept

Many ecosystems in the world are the result of a close interaction between local people and their environment, which are currently recognized as social‐ecological systems (SoES). Natural catastrophes or long‐standing social and political turmoil can degrade these SoES to a point where human societies are no longer autonomous and their supporting ecosystems are highly degraded. Here, we focus on the special case of the restoration of SoES that we call social‐ecological restoration (SoER), which is characterized as a restoration process that cannot avoid simultaneously dealing with ecological and social issues. In practice, SoER is analogous in many ways to the general principles of ecological restoration, but it differs in three key aspects: (1) the first actions may be initially intended for human groups that need to recover minimum living standards; (2) the SoER process would often be part of a healing process for local people where cultural values of ecosystems play an essential role; and (3) there is a strong dependency on external economic inputs, as the people belonging to the SoES may be incapable of reorganizing themselves on their own and supporting ecosystems can no longer self‐recover. Although it might not be desirable or necessary to call all restoration projects with a social component an SoER, the use of this concept may help in defining early restoration targets that may prevent conflicts among users in the long term. From the perspective of other disciplines, SoER would be more appropriately perceived as programs of “social‐ecological recovery” in the long term.     

Monitoring in the Context of Structured Decision-Making and Adaptive Management

Abstract: In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play ≥3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill ≥1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring programs that are used for decision-making, not comprehensive studies that elucidate all manner of ecological relationships.     

我国灾难医学科研管理中科学问题的思考和建议

针对灾难医学的研究特点,结合国内外有关灾难医学救治的研究资料,梳理灾难医学的主要研究方向,同时通过总结分析现有灾难医学科研管理的策略、具体做法及其问题,提出适合我国现状的灾难医学科研管理的建议。     

The Sewol Ferry Disaster in Korea and Maritime Safety Management

The sinking of the Sewol ferry on April 16, 2014, in Korea, the deadliest peacetime maritime accident in decades, was caused by a variety of factors, including human error and institutional and legal deficiencies. This article reviews the incident and its consequences.     

桔园植保协调管理的多目标群决策研究

植保系统工程是植保工作科学化的必然趋势,有关系统工程与具体植保工作相结合的理论研究较为丰富,然而,在更高的层次上,植保系统是多决策者、多目标的复杂系统,这就要求植保工作者必须学会用系统工程理论解决植保系统的协调管理问题。迄今这方面的研究     

A Rule-Based Decision Support System for Critical Infrastructure Management

This article presents a new rule-based decision support system for critical infrastructure management based on the interdependencies among critical infrastructures. Unlike the conventional flood front prediction model, the new failure front prediction model consists of both physical parameters and interdependencies among infrastructures, which is represented by a multi-level complex network. This study employs advanced computation methods to build tools for better understanding emergent behavior of water security infrastructure systems for use in developing superior preparedness and response strategies. This study highlights the important role played by the interdependencies among the infrastructures in failure front prediction.     

构建医疗质量决策平台 促进精细化管理

信息技术为医院全面质量管理提供了巨大支持。本文通过建立医疗质量决策平台对医院终末质量管理进行提升。利用来自各环节医疗活动的数据,通过融合、加工、分析,获得医疗质量相关指标,并通过图形化报表工具进行展现,为医疗质量控制和精细化管理提供了决策依据。     

Development of a Composite Index with Quantitative Indicators for Drought Disaster Risk Analysis at the Micro Level

It is the aim of this study to provide non-state as well as state actors with an effective tool to assess the drought risk of households. The developed methodology introduces a technique for comparative measuring in the context of drought disaster risk management. This approach is designed to contribute to the effectiveness and accuracy of drought risk analyses at the micro level. In a process of qualitative and quantitative empirical research in East India, 10 single indicators for drought risk at the household level have been developed and validated. Based on this, methods of combining these single indicators within a composite index are introduced. Within the study area in Orissa, this instrument can be used for drought risk analysis in order to prioritize preventive measures. Outside the study area, the developed methodology can be adopted to gain suitable risk indicators and composite index weighting criteria. This study tackles the desire of disaster risk management projects for comparative risk analysis at the micro level and demonstrates how certain characteristics of households’ can be quantified. Thus the developed instrument facilitates prioritizing preventive actions for the most vulnerable households.     

后医改时期医院后勤社会化管理存在的问题与对策

随着医改的深化与推进,医院后勤既有的供给式服务模式弊端日渐突显,旧观念与新形势的冲突引发一系列新型后勤管理问题。因此,要从根本上“治愈”医院后勤管理的顽疾,必须从转变思想开始,进而改革现有的运行机制、人才任用与培养模式和建立完整而有力的规章制度。     

Practical Decision Methods for Watershed Management

Why are formal statistical methods for risk-based decision-making so seldom used in the practice of watershed management? I contend that complex formal methods, while internally consistent, are often inappropriate to real world decision-making. The primary purpose of risk analysis is to support risk management, and decision methods need to be effective not just in evaluating risk, but also in communicating risk among stakeholders and decision makers. Useful methods must be not only correct, but also readily communicable. Many formal risk-based decision methods have real obstacles to practical application in one of the following areas: (1) many important components of risk that matter to stakeholders are difficult to express in quantitative terms, and any method which turns “fuzzy” information and subjective opinion into hard numbers is prone to be regarded with suspicion; (2) methods which are not understandable and convincing to decision makers have little practical value; (3) a complex formal analysis will be seen as misguided or irrelevant if it does not represent the full spectrum of management goals. This paper compares the process of watershed management with the process of ecological risk assessment, highlighting similarities and key differences. A practical decision method which balances quantitative rigor with ability to communicate to and forge consensus among stakeholders is then outlined with reference to a successful case study.     

Mass Collaboration in Earthquake Risk Management

The mechanism of mass collaboration in risk management was studied during the Sichuan earthquake under a Web-based “PeopleFinder” project, where information is contributed and shared among mass contributors. The case study is provided by a great earthquake that happened in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, of southwestern China at 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008. We witnessed and experienced the rescue and relief efforts for the great earthquake. In this article, two fundamental frameworks are developed to study the mechanism of mass collaboration. Mass collaboration is proven to be effective in a big public crisis such as the Sichuan earthquake.     

A Risk Elimination Coordination Method for Large Group Decision-Making in Natural Disaster Emergencies

ABSTRACT

In view of the risk characteristics of large group decision-making in emergencies and the difficultly in forming the decision scheme with low risk, the causes of generating risk in urgent group decisions are analyzed. The coordination framework for risk elimination in emergency decisions is constructed. The methods of risk measure and elimination for emergency decisions are proposed to construct the risk elimination coordination mechanism for emergency decisions so that the risk of emergency group decisions is gradually constringed to obtain the emergency decision scheme with risk degree low enough. Finally, an example case is used to validate the realization process and the validity of risk elimination coordination method and mechanism.     

Capacity-Building for Natural Resource Management: Lessons from the Health Sector

This paper examines capacity-building measures used by the health sector relevant to natural resource management (NRM) using the delivery of two programs in Australia through its recently formalized 56 community-based regional NRM Boards as a reference point. The delivery of NRM outcomes through devolved governance arrangements has been hampered by inadequate capacity in other countries (e.g., New Zealand, Canada). The inherent complexities of NRM, coupled with professional “comfort zones,” often limit actors from looking to other sectors confronting similar issues. This paper summarizes findings from ∼70 sources in health reviewing nine major capacity-building measures. The outcomes of research evaluating the relative benefits and disbenefits of applying these measures are discussed. The paper identifies several opportunities to trial some of these measures in NRM.

Models for forest ecosystem management: a European perspective

BACKGROUND: Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies. SCOPE: Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education. CONCLUSIONS: In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally well.     

Reinterpreting the State of Fisheries and their Management

Abstract A series of recent high-profile papers in Science and Nature have led readers to believe that most fisheries worldwide are overexploited and that current fisheries management practices have universally failed. In reality, current fisheries management is working well to achieve the legislated objective of MSY in some countries but is failing in others. Here, I present three interpretations about the status of fisheries management that are widely accepted and for each consider an alternative interpretation of the data. I propose that, rather than abandoning current approaches to fisheries management, we should expand the use of the management tools used in fisheries that currently achieve biological and economic sustainability.     

Cyclone Winston and Community-Based Marine Conservation in Fiji

ABSTRACT

The establishment and use of community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) groups is now the established route towards conservation in large parts of the Pacific, especially in Fiji. One of the main strengths of CBNRM that is often mentioned is its adaptability to different contexts and to changing objectives among stakeholders, an aspect thoroughly tested by events such as ‘natural’ disasters. This paper is based on 10 months of fieldwork in Kubulau district in Fiji before, during and after Cyclone Winston. It provides an ethnographic account of how this ‘natural’ disaster affected a community and the local CBNRM group. It looks at how this event was experienced and managed by the group, and how the group’s involvement in disaster assistance shifted its role both within and outside of the community, as well as changing its future agenda during the months that followed. We can see in the aftermath of disaster a shift within the group away from the original primary focus on conservation and towards development. The paper provides an account of how the disaster seemingly strengthened the group and the ‘community’ in terms of organisation, knowledge and motivation, but also how it challenged previous norms and exposed weaknesses that are arguably inherent within CBNRM itself.     

Risk and Decision-Making: A Workshop for Environmental Professionals

In the early 1990s, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 9 developed a training workshop for environmental professionals. It was successfully taught throughout Region 9 in collaboration with the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. We have updated the workshop's manual to incorporate current practices including: vapor intrusion into indoor air, benchmark dose, cancer guidelines, inhalation guidance, ecological and screening risk assessments, conceptual site models, and data quality objectives. We maintained the popular workshop format, with participants evaluating information and drawing conclusions in an interactive hands-on approach. We kept the case study approach to simulate realistic environmental issues. After a case study introduction, participants plan a sampling strategy. Principles of toxicology are introduced, and participants develop toxicity criteria using hypothetical animal study results. Participants then identify exposure pathways, and calculate exposure and risk and hazard estimates. Finally, participants develop remedial alternatives and practice risk communication through role playing exercises. The workshop has been an effective tool for training new employees and providing continuing education for experienced employees from consulting, military, and regulatory agencies. The format provides a dynamic learning environment, fostering exchanges among professionals with a wide range of skills and backgrounds (project managers, toxicologists, geologists, engineers, public participation experts).     

Multidisciplinary Approaches to Natural Resource Management

Counter-acting forces to increase rural production and/or its efficiency, and to sustain an ecosystem now recognised to be under increasing and destructive pressures have created exigencies in achieving balanced natural resource management (NRM). Nowhere is this more apparent than in the management of the Murray Darling System in south-eastern Australia. All actions affecting natural resources impinge on the ecosystems that support those resources, the economy based on them, and the human society and culture connected to them. Change is best managed with the cooperation of those most affected. If NRM is to be achieved through informed community decisions, there is a need for a multidisciplinary process, drawing on specialist (intra-disciplinary) expertise, and a requirement to pull the resultant knowledge into an integrated form which supports decision-making at the management and community level. We propose a framework that identifies tasks necessary to support community decision-making and inject specialist technical knowledge into the process. For complex NRM issues, it is likely that there is insufficient information in one or more disciplines to support a strong decision. Where possible, this should lead to the interposition of targeted pilot trials, based on principles of adaptive management, prior to the final assessment and (presumedly) management plans. These ‘management experiments’ follow a similar path to specialist hypotheses and measurements (based on the same management intervention) followed by an integrated assessment. It appears that identification of, and engagement with, components of the community, and analytical techniques to support integrated assessment are two major areas in which new knowledge is urgently needed.