Cryosphere: ice on Niwot Ridge and in the Green Lakes Valley,Colorado Front Range

Background: Subsurface ice preserved as ice lenses and within rock glaciers as well as glacial and lake ice provides sensitive indicators of climate change and serve as a late-season source of meltwater.

Aims: We synthesise the results of geomorphological, geophysical and geochemical studies during the period of 1995–2014, building on a long history of earlier work focused on ice and permafrost studies on Niwot Ridge and the adjacent Green Lakes Valley (GLV), which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Site.

Methods: These studies are discussed in the context of how bodies of ice and rock glaciers reflect changing local climate. We review recent results from geophysical investigations (resistivity, seismic refraction and ground-penetrating radar) of the shallow subsurface, ongoing monitoring of the Arikaree Glacier, three rock glaciers and lake ice in the GLV, and interpretations of how subsurface ice melt regulates the flow and chemistry of alpine surface water after seasonal snowfields melt.

Results and conclusions: Permafrost conditions reported from Niwot Ridge in the 1970s are generally absent today, but ice lenses form and melt seasonally. Ice is present permanently within the Green Lakes 5 rock glacier and at nearby favourable sites. The Arikaree Glacier has shown a marked decline in cumulative mass balance during the past 12 years after a 30-year period when net mass balance was ca. 0. Duration of seasonal lake ice increases with elevation in GLV, but duration has decreased at all seven lakes that have been monitored during the last three decades. This decrease has been most marked at the lowest elevation where it amounted to a reduction of about 1 d year^?1 and least at Green Lake 5 where the loss has been at a rate of 0.5 d year^?1. Surface temperature measurements from rock glaciers have not shown strong trends during the past 15 years. It has been suggested that almost all of the 2.5-mm year^?1 increase in stream discharge from the upper GLV in September and October has been derived from melting of subsurface ice.     

Contrasting long-term alpine and subalpine precipitation trends in a mid-latitude North American mountain system,Colorado Front Range,USA

Background: Long-term climate trends in mountain systems often vary strongly with elevation.

Aims: To evaluate elevation dependence in long-term precipitation trends in subalpine forest and alpine tundra zones of a mid-continental, mid-latitude North American mountain system and to relate such dependence to atmospheric circulation patterns.

Methods: We contrasted 59-year (1952–2010) precipitation records of two high-elevation climate stations on Niwot Ridge, Colorado Front Range, Rocky Mountains, USA. The sites, one in forest (3022 m a.s.l.) and the other in alpine tundra (3739 m), are closely located (within 7 km horizontally, ca. 700 m vertically), but differ with respect to proximity to the mountain-system crest (the Continental Divide).

Results: The sites exhibited significant differences in annual and seasonal precipitation trends, which depended strongly on their elevation and distance from the Continental Divide. Annual precipitation increased by 60 mm (+6%) per decade at the alpine site, with no significant change at the subalpine site. Seasonally, trends at the alpine site were dominated by increases in winter, which we suggest resulted from an increase in orographically generated precipitation over the Divide, driven by upper-air (700 hPa) north-westerly flow. Such a change was not evident at the subalpine site, which is less affected by orographic precipitation on north-westerly flow.

Conclusions: Elevation dependence in precipitation trends appears to have arisen from a change in upper-air flow from predominantly south-westerly to north-westerly. Dependence of precipitation trends on topographic position and season has complex implications for the ecology and hydrology of Niwot Ridge and adjacent watersheds, involving interactions among physical processes (e.g. snowpack dynamics) and biotic responses (e.g. in phenologies and ecosystem productivity).     

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.     

Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.     

Clinging on to alpine life: Investigating factors driving the uphill range contraction and population decline of a mountain breeding bird

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are widely regarded as important drivers of environmental change in alpine habitats. However, due to the difficulties working in high‐elevation mountain systems, the impacts of these drivers on alpine breeding species have rarely been investigated. The Eurasian dotterel (Charadrius morinellus) is a migratory wader, which has been the subject of uniquely long‐term and spatially widespread monitoring effort in Scotland, where it breeds in alpine areas in dwindling numbers. Here we analyse data sets spanning three decades, to investigate whether key potential drivers of environmental change in Scottish mountains (snow lie, elevated summer temperatures and nitrogen deposition) have contributed to the population decline of dotterel. We also consider the role of rainfall on the species' wintering grounds in North Africa. We found that dotterel declines—in both density and site occupancy of breeding males—primarily occurred on low and intermediate elevation sites. High‐elevation sites mostly continued to be occupied, but males occurred at lower densities in years following snow‐rich winters, suggesting that high‐elevation snow cover displaced dotterel to lower sites. Wintering ground rainfall was positively associated with densities of breeding males two springs later. Dotterel densities were reduced at low and intermediate sites where nitrogen deposition was greatest, but not at high‐elevation sites. While climatic factors explained variation in breeding density between years, they did not seem to explain the species' uphill retreat and decline. We cannot rule out the possibility that dotterel have increasingly settled on higher sites previously unavailable due to extensive snow cover, while changes associated with nitrogen deposition may also have rendered lower lying sites less suitable for breeding. Causes of population and range changes in mountain‐breeding species are thus liable to be complex, involving multiple anthropogenic drivers of environmental change acting widely across annual and migratory life cycles.     

Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.     

Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse‐grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long‐term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation‐sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse‐grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.     

Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land‐use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey‐resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites’ contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.     

生物多样性适应气候变化的国家政策和措施: 国际经验及启示

气候变化已成为威胁生物多样性及生态系统服务功能的主要因素之一, 许多国家已经意识到必须提高本国生物多样性适应气候变化的能力。一些国家出台了国家战略, 采取增加连通性、改进现有保护区域的管理和恢复措施等基于生态系统的适应措施, 采用跨学科与跨部门协作手段加强生物多样性适应气候变化的监测和评估, 并且从制度和资金等方面加强政策措施的落实。作者对部分发达国家和发展中的生物多样性大国的生物多样性适应气候变化的相关政策和措施进行了梳理, 并结合我国现状提出以下建议: (1)把生物多样性适应气候变化作为国家整体适应战略中的优先措施之一; (2)将提高生物多样性和生态系统的恢复力作为适应气候变化的基础性原则; (3)整合并完善国家生物多样性监测网络, 参考国际通行标准制定信息和数据收集标准, 并且尽快对气候变化下我国生物多样性脆弱性开展全面且持续的评估。     

Parapatric species and the implications for climate change studies: a case study on hares in Europe

Parapatry is a biogeographical term used to refer to organisms whose ranges do not overlap, but are immediately adjacent to each other; they only co‐occur – if at all – in a narrow contact zone. Often there are no environmental barriers in the contact zones, hence competitive interaction is usually advocated as the factor that modulates species distribution ranges. Even though the effects of climate change on species distribution have been widely studied, few studies have explored these effects on the biogeographical relationships between closely related, parapatric, species. We modelled environmental favourability for three parapatric hare species in Europe – Lepus granatensis, L. europaeus and L. timidus – using ecogeographical variables and projected the models into the future according to the IPCC A2 emissions scenario. Favourabilities for present and future scenarios were combined using fuzzy logic with the following aims: (i) to determine the biogeographical relationships between hare species in parapatry, that is L. granatensis/L. europaeus and L. europaeus/L. timidus and (ii) to assess the effects of climate change on each species as well as on their interspecific interactions. In their contact area L. granatensis achieved higher favourability values than L. europaeus, suggesting that if both species have a similar population status, the former species may have some advantages over the latter if competitive relationships are established. Climate change had the most striking effect on the distribution of L. timidus, especially when interspecific interactions with L. europaeus were taken into account, which may compromise the co‐existence of L. timidus. The results of this study are relevant not only for understanding the distribution patterns of the hares studied and the effects of climate change on these patterns, but also for improving the general application of species distribution models to the prediction of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.     

Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences

Climate change effects on biodiversity are already manifested, and yet no predictive knowledge characterizes the likely nature of these effects. Previous studies suggested an influence of topography on these effects, a possibility tested herein. Bird species with distributions restricted to montane (26 species) and Great Plains (19 species) regions of central and western North America were modeled, and climate change effects on their distributions compared: in general, plains species were more heavily influenced by climate change, with drastic area reductions (mode 35% of distributional area lost under assumption of no dispersal) and dramatic spatial movements (0–400 km shift of range centroid under assumption of no dispersal) of appropriate habitats. These results suggest an important generality regarding climate change effects on biodiversity, and provide useful guidelines for conservation planning.     

Global change effects on Bromus tectorum L. (Poaceae) at its high‐elevation range margin

Global change is likely to affect invasive species distribution, especially at range margins. In the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA, the invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum, is patchily distributed and its impacts have been minimal compared with other areas of the Intermountain West. We used a series of in situ field manipulations to determine how B. tectorum might respond to changing climatic conditions and increased nitrogen deposition at the high‐elevation edge of its invaded range. Over 3 years, we used snow fences to simulate changes in snowpack, irrigation to simulate increased frequency and magnitude of springtime precipitation, and added nitrogen (N) at three levels (0, 5, and 10 g m^?2) to natural patches of B. tectorum growing under the two dominant shrubs, Artemisia tridentata and Purshia tridentata, and in intershrub spaces (INTR). We found that B. tectorum seedling density in April was lower following deeper snowpack possibly due to delayed emergence, yet there was no change in spikelet production or biomass accumulation at the time of harvest. Additional spring rain events increased B. tectorum biomass and spikelet production in INTR plots only. Plants were primarily limited by water in 2009, but colimited by N and water in 2011, possibly due to differences in antecedent moisture conditions at the time of treatments. The threshold at which N had an effect varied with magnitude of water additions. Frequency of rain events was more influential than magnitude in driving B. tectorum growth and fecundity responses. Our results suggest that predicted shifts from snow to rain could facilitate expansion of B. tectorum at high elevation depending on timing of rain events and level of N deposition. We found evidence for P‐limitation at this site and an increase in P‐availability with N additions, suggesting that stoichiometric relationships may also influence B. tectorum spread.     

Variable temperature effects of Open Top Chambers at polar and alpine sites explained by irradiance and snow depth

Environmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year‐round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze‐thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (?0.9 to 2.1 °C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R² = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC‐induced changes in the frequency of freeze‐thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high‐temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non‐manipulated control plots. Frequency of low‐temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.     

Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and anova s were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain‐dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland‐dwelling than in mountain‐dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses.     

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest – the species – with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species‐rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.     

Vegetation gradients in Atlantic Europe: the use of existing phytosociological data in preliminary investigations on the potential effects of climate change on British vegetation

• 1 This paper aims to demonstrate the use of available vegetation data from the phytosociological literature in preliminary analyses to generate hypotheses regarding vegetation and climate change.
  • 2 Data for over 3000 samples of calcareous grassland, mesotrophic grassland, heath and woodland vegetation were taken from the literature for a region in the west of Atlantic Europe and subjected to ordination by detrended correspondence analysis in order to identify the main gradients present.
    • 3 Climate data were obtained at a resolution of 0.5° from an existing database. The relationship between vegetation composition and climate was investigated by the correlation of the mean scores for the first two ordination axes for each 0.5° cell with the climate and location variables.
      • 4 The ordinations resulted in clear geographical gradients for calcareous grasslands, heaths and woodlands but not for mesotrophic grasslands. Significant correlations were shown between some of the vegetation gradients and the climate variables, with the strongest relationships occurring between the calcareous grassland gradients and July temperature, latitude and oceanicity. Some of the vegetation gradients were also inferred to reflect edaphic factors, management and vegetation history.
        • 5 Those gradients that were related to temperature were hypothesized to reflect the influence of a progressively warmer climate on species composition, providing a baseline for further studies on the influence of climate change on species composition.
        • 6 The validity of the literature data was assessed by the collection of an original set of field data for calcareous grasslands and the subsequent ordination of a dataset containing samples from both the literature and the field. The considerable overlap between the samples from the literature and the field suggest that literature data can be used, despite certain limitations. Such preliminary analyses, using readily available data, can thus achieve useful results, thereby saving lengthy and costly field visits.

     

Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability

Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant–plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.     

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land‐use legacies

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land‐use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land‐use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait‐based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land‐use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.