Clade age and species richness are decoupled across the eukaryotic tree of life

Explaining the dramatic variation in species richness across the tree of life remains a key challenge in evolutionary biology. At the largest phylogenetic scales, the extreme heterogeneity in species richness observed among different groups of organisms is almost certainly a function of many complex and interdependent factors. However, the most fundamental expectation in macroevolutionary studies is simply that species richness in extant clades should be correlated with clade age: all things being equal, older clades will have had more time for diversity to accumulate than younger clades. Here, we test the relationship between stem clade age and species richness across 1,397 major clades of multicellular eukaryotes that collectively account for more than 1.2 million described species. We find no evidence that clade age predicts species richness at this scale. We demonstrate that this decoupling of age and richness is unlikely to result from variation in net diversification rates among clades. At the largest phylogenetic scales, contemporary patterns of species richness are inconsistent with unbounded diversity increase through time. These results imply that a fundamentally different interpretative paradigm may be needed in the study of phylogenetic diversity patterns in many groups of organisms.     

Explaining large-scale patterns of vertebrate diversity

The major clades of vertebrates differ dramatically in their current species richness, from 2 to more than 32 000 species each, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. For example, a previous study noted that vertebrate clades differ in their diversification rates, but did not explain why they differ. Using a time-calibrated phylogeny and phylogenetic comparative methods, I show that most variation in diversification rates among 12 major vertebrate clades has a simple ecological explanation: predominantly terrestrial clades (i.e. birds, mammals, and lizards and snakes) have higher net diversification rates than predominantly aquatic clades (i.e. amphibians, crocodilians, turtles and all fish clades). These differences in diversification rates are then strongly related to patterns of species richness. Habitat may be more important than other potential explanations for richness patterns in vertebrates (such as climate and metabolic rates) and may also help explain patterns of species richness in many other groups of organisms.     

The causes of species richness patterns across space, time, and clades and the role of "ecological limits"

A major goal of research in ecology and evolution is to explain why species richness varies across habitats, regions, and clades. Recent reviews have argued that species richness patterns among regions and clades may be explained by "ecological limits" on diversity over time, which are said to offer an alternative explanation to those invoking speciation and extinction (diversification) and time. Further, it has been proposed that this hypothesis is best supported by failure to find a positive relationship between time (e.g., clade age) and species richness. Here, I critically review the evidence for these claims, and propose how we might better study the ecological and evolutionary origins of species richness patterns. In fact, ecological limits can only influence species richness in clades by influencing speciation and extinction, and so this new "alternative paradigm" is simply one facet of the traditional idea that ecology influences diversification. The only direct evidence for strict ecological limits on richness (i.e., constant diversity over time) is from the fossil record, but many studies cited as supporting this pattern do not, and there is evidence for increasing richness over time. Negative evidence for a relationship between clade age and richness among extant clades is not positive evidence for constant diversity over time, and many recent analyses finding no age-diversity relationship were biased to reach this conclusion. More comprehensive analyses strongly support a positive age-richness relationship. There is abundant evidence that both time and ecological influences on diversification rates are important drivers of both large-scale and small-scale species richness patterns. The major challenge for future studies is to understand the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the relationships between time, dispersal, diversification, and species richness patterns.     

What explains patterns of species richness? The relative importance of climatic‐niche evolution,morphological evolution,and ecological limits in salamanders

A major goal of evolutionary biology and ecology is to understand why species richness varies among clades. Previous studies have suggested that variation in richness among clades might be related to variation in rates of morphological evolution among clades (e.g., body size and shape). Other studies have suggested that richness patterns might be related to variation in rates of climatic‐niche evolution. However, few studies, if any, have tested the relative importance of these variables in explaining patterns of richness among clades. Here, we test their relative importance among major clades of Plethodontidae, the most species‐rich family of salamanders. Earlier studies have suggested that climatic‐niche evolution explains patterns of diversification among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. A subsequent study stated that rates of morphological evolution instead explained patterns of species richness among plethodontid clades (along with “ecological limits” on richness of clades, leading to saturation of clades with species, given limited resources). However, they did not consider climatic‐niche evolution. Using phylogenetic multiple regression, we show that rates of climatic‐niche evolution explain most variation in richness among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. We find little evidence that ecological limits explain patterns of richness among plethodontid clades. We also test whether rates of morphological and climatic‐niche evolution are correlated, and find that they are not. Overall, our results help explain richness patterns in a major amphibian group and provide possibly the first test of the relative importance of climatic niches and morphological evolution in explaining diversity patterns.     

Climatic niche evolution in Smilacaceae (Liliales) drives patterns of species diversification and richness between the Old and New World

Geographical variation in species richness in plant groups is determined by the interplay between historical, evolutionary, and ecological processes. However, the processes underlying the striking disparity in species richness between Asia and the Americas remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize global phylogenetic and macroecological data on the diversification of Smilacaceae, deciphering potential drivers underlying the species diversity pattern biased toward Asia. We compiled global distributions of all Smilacaceae species, and reconstructed the biogeographic history and niche evolution using a new time-calibrated phylogeny (eight genes, 135 species). Integrating these data sets, we estimated evolutionary histories and diversification rates for each region, and tested correlations among species diversification, niche evolution, and niche divergence. Smilacaceae probably originated during the Late Cretaceous/Early Palaeocene and began to diversify in middle to low latitudes in Central America and Eurasia during the Late Eocene. Both the Old and New World clades exhibited a steady, albeit slight, increase of species diversification from the Late Eocene to Early Miocene. However, the Old World clade experienced an abrupt increase in net diversification during the Late Miocene. Our findings also revealed that species diversification rates were positively correlated with ecological niche evolution and niche divergence. Niche shifts and climatic niche evolution since the Middle Miocene played crucial roles in species diversification dynamics within Smilacaceae. The high plant richness in Asia may be explained by greater diversification in this region, potentially promoted by heterogeneous environments.     

EXTINCTION RATES SHOULD NOT BE ESTIMATED FROM MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

Molecular phylogenies contain information about the tempo and mode of species diversification through time. Because extinction leaves a characteristic signature in the shape of molecular phylogenetic trees, many studies have used data from extant taxa only to infer extinction rates. This is a promising approach for the large number of taxa for which extinction rates cannot be estimated from the fossil record. Here, I explore the consequences of violating a common assumption made by studies of extinction from phylogenetic data. I show that when diversification rates vary among lineages, simple estimators based on the birth–death process are unable to recover true extinction rates. This is problematic for phylogenetic trees with complete taxon sampling as well as for the simpler case of clades with known age and species richness. Given the ubiquity of variation in diversification rates among lineages and clades, these results suggest that extinction rates should not be estimated in the absence of fossil data.     

Clade age and not diversification rate explains species richness among animal taxa

Animal taxa show remarkable variability in species richness across phylogenetic groups. Most explanations for this disparity postulate that taxa with more species have phenotypes or ecologies that cause higher diversification rates (i.e., higher speciation rates or lower extinction rates). Here we show that clade longevity, and not diversification rate, has primarily shaped patterns of species richness across major animal clades: more diverse taxa are older and thus have had more time to accumulate species. Diversification rates calculated from 163 species-level molecular phylogenies were highly consistent within and among three major animal phyla (Arthropoda, Chordata, Mollusca) and did not correlate with species richness. Clades with higher estimated diversification rates were younger, but species numbers increased with increasing clade age. A fossil-based data set also revealed a strong, positive relationship between total extant species richness and crown group age across the orders of insects and vertebrates. These findings do not negate the importance of ecology or phenotype in influencing diversification rates, but they do show that clade longevity is the dominant signal in major animal biodiversity patterns. Thus, some key innovations may have acted through fostering clade longevity and not by heightening diversification rate.     

High tropical net diversification drives the New World latitudinal gradient in palm (Arecaceae) species richness

Aim Species richness exhibits striking geographical variation, but the processes that drive this variation are unresolved. We investigated the relative importance of two hypothesized evolutionary causes for the variation in palm species richness across the New World: time for diversification and evolutionary (net diversification) rate. Palms have a long history in the region, with the major clades diversifying during the Tertiary (65–2 Ma). Location Tropical and subtropical America (34° N–34° S; 33–120° W). Methods Using range maps, palm species richness was estimated in a 1° × 1° grid. Mean lineage net diversification was estimated by the mean phylogenetic root distance (MRD), the average number of nodes separating a species from the base of the palm phylogeny for the species in each grid cell. If evolutionary rate limits richness, then richness should increase with MRD. If time limits richness, then old, relict species (with low root distance) should predominantly occur in long‐inhabited and therefore species‐rich areas. Hence, richness should decrease with MRD. To determine the influence of net diversification across different time frames, MRD was computed for subtribe, genus and species levels within the phylogeny, and supplemented with the purely tip‐level measure, mean number of species per genus (MS/G). Correlations and regressions, in combination with eigenvector‐based spatial filtering, were used to assess the relationship between species richness, the net diversification measures, and potential environmental and geographical drivers. Results Species richness increased with all net diversification measures. The regression models showed that richness and the net diversification measures increased with decreasing (absolute) latitude and, less strongly, with increasing energy/temperature and water availability. These patterns therefore reflect net diversification at both deep and shallow levels in the phylogeny. Richness also increased with range in elevation, but this was only reflected in the MS/G pattern and therefore reflects recent diversification. Main conclusions The geographical patterns in palm species richness appear to be predominantly the result of elevated net diversification rates towards the equator and in warm, wet climates, sustained throughout most of the Tertiary. Late‐Tertiary orogeny has caused localized increases in net diversification rates that have also made a mark on the richness pattern.     

The role of frugivory in the diversification of bats in the Neotropics

Aim Ecological interactions are among the most important biotic factors influencing the processes of speciation and extinction. Our aim was to test whether diversification rates of New World Noctilionoidea bats are associated with specialization for frugivory, and how this pattern differs between the mainland and the West Indies. Location The New World. Methods We reconstructed a time‐calibrated molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the New World genera of the superfamily Noctilionoidea. We compiled data on diet, morphology, geographical distribution and number of ecoregions in which each genus occurs. Then, using the phylogenetic tree constructed, we tested whether diversification was driven by diet (animalivorous and sanguinivorous versus nectarivorous and frugivorous) and specialization for frugivory. Afterwards, we conducted phylogenetic comparative analyses to identify correlates of species richness and net diversification rates. Results The diversification rate was higher in mutualistic than in antagonistic clades in mainland and Antillean biogeographical scenarios, but only strictly frugivorous clades showed a markedly higher diversification rate than the rest of the genera. Geographical range and number of ecoregions were positively associated with species richness and diversification rate in continental and insular lineages. Lower body mass, lower forearm length and specialization for frugivory were significantly positively correlated with higher diversification rates in continental lineages, whereas these parameters were negatively correlated in Antillean lineages. Main conclusions The direction of the relationship of intrinsic factors (specialization for frugivory and body size) with diversification of noctilionoid bats depends on the biogeographical context, whereas the direction of the relationship of extrinsic factors (geographical range and number of ecoregions) with diversification is consistent in both mainland and the West Indian lineages.     

Regional differences in rates of plant speciation and molecular evolution: a comparison between eastern Asia and eastern North America

The eastern Asian (EAS)-eastern North American (ENA) floristic disjunction is one of the best-known biogeographic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent paleontological and molecular analyses have illuminated the origins of the biogeographic pattern, but subsequent diversification and evolution of the disjunct floras in each of the two continents after isolation remains poorly understood. Although similar in climate and floristic composition, EAS has twice as many species as ENA in genera occurring in both regions. Explaining such differences in species diversity between regions with similar environmental conditions (diversity anomalies) is an important goal of the study of the global patterns of biodiversity. We used a phylogenetic approach to compare rates of net speciation and molecular evolution between the two regions. We first identified EAS-ENA disjunct sister clades from ten genera (Asarum, Buckleya, Carpinus, Carya, Cornus, Hamamelis, Illicium, Panax, Stewartia, and Styrax) that represent diverse angiosperm lineages using phylogenetic analyses of ITS (internal transcribed spacer of nuclear ribosomal DNA) sequence data. Species richness and substitution rate of ITS between sister clades were compared. The results revealed a pattern of greater species diversity in the EAS counterparts. A positive relationship between species diversity and ITS substitution rate was also documented. These results suggest greater net speciation and accelerated molecular evolution in EAS. The data support the idea that a regional difference in net speciation rate related to topographic heterogeneity contributes to the diversity anomaly between EAS and ENA. The close relationship between rates of ITS evolution and species richness further suggests that species production may be directly linked to rate of nucleotide substitution.     

Morphological disparity opposes latitudinal diversity gradient in lacertid lizards

While global variation in taxonomic diversity is strongly linked to latitude, the extent to which morphological disparity follows geographical gradients is less well known. We estimated patterns of lineage diversification, morphological disparity and rates of phenotypic evolution in the Old World lizard family Lacertidae, which displays a nearly inverse latitudinal diversity gradient with decreasing species richness towards the tropics. We found that lacertids exhibit relatively constant rates of lineage accumulation over time, although the majority of morphological variation appears to have originated during recent divergence events, resulting in increased partitioning of disparity within subclades. Among subclades, tropical arboreal taxa exhibited the fastest rates of shape change while temperate European taxa were the slowest, resulting in an inverse relationship between latitudinal diversity and rates of phenotypic evolution. This pattern demonstrates a compelling counterexample to the ecological opportunity theory of diversification, suggesting an uncoupling of the processes generating species diversity and morphological differentiation across spatial scales.     

Quantifying the effects of the break up of Pangaea on global terrestrial diversification with neutral theory

The historic richness of most taxonomic groups increases substantially over geological time. Explanations for this fall broadly into two categories: bias in the fossil record and elevated net rates of diversification in recent periods. For example, the break up of Pangaea and isolation between continents might have increased net diversification rates. In this study, we investigate the effect on terrestrial diversification rates of the increased isolation between land masses brought about by continental drift. We use ecological neutral theory as a means to study geologically complex scenarios tractably. Our models show the effects of simulated geological events that affect all species equally, without the added complexity of further ecological processes. We find that continental drift leads to an increase in diversity only where isolation between continents leads to additional speciation through vicariance, and where higher taxa with very low global diversity are considered. We conclude that continental drift by itself is not sufficient to account for the increase in terrestrial species richness observed in the fossil record.     

Correlates of diversification in the plant clade Dipsacales: geographic movement and evolutionary innovations

We explore patterns of diversification in the plant clades Adoxaceae and Valerianaceae (within Dipsacales), evaluating correlations between biogeographic change (i.e., movements into new areas), morphological change (e.g., the origin of putative key innovations associated with vegetative and reproductive characters), and shifts in rates of diversification. Our findings indicate that rates of diversification in these plants tend to be less tightly correlated with the evolution of morphological innovations but instead exhibit a pronounced correlation with movement into new geographic areas, particularly the dispersal of lineages into new mountainous regions. The interdependence among apparent novelties (arising from their nested phylogenetic distribution) and the correlation between morphological and biogeographic change suggests a complex history of diversification in Dipsacales. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of incorporating biogeographic history in studies of diversification rates and in the study of geographic gradients in species richness. Furthermore, these results argue against a simple deterministic relationship between dispersal and diversification: like other factors that may influence the probability of speciation and/or extinction, the impact of dispersal on diversification rates depends on being in the right place at the right time.     

Primary controls on species richness in higher taxa

The disparity in species richness across the tree of life is one of the most striking and pervasive features of biological diversity. Some groups are exceptionally diverse, whereas many other groups are species poor. Differences in diversity among groups are frequently assumed to result from primary control by differential rates of net diversification. However, a major alternative explanation is that ecological and other factors exert primary control on clade diversity, such that apparent variation in net diversification rates is a secondary consequence of ecological limits on clade growth. Here, I consider a likelihood framework for distinguishing between these competing hypotheses. I incorporate hierarchical modeling to explicitly relax assumptions about the constancy of diversification rates across clades, and I propose several statistics for a posteriori evaluation of model adequacy. I apply the framework to a recent dated phylogeny of ants. My results reject the hypothesis that net diversification rates exert primary control on species richness in this group and demonstrate that clade diversity is better explained by total time-integrated speciation. These results further suggest that it may not possible to estimate meaningful speciation and extinction rates from higher-level phylogenies of extant taxa only.     

THE ROLE OF CLIMATIC TOLERANCES AND SEED TRAITS IN REDUCED EXTINCTION RATES OF TEMPERATE POLYGONACEAE

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna

The evolutionary origins of Madagascar''s biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island''s accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.     

Relationships of diversity,disparity, and their evolutionary rates in squirrels (Sciuridae)

Several theories predict that rapidly diversifying clades will also rapidly diverge phenotypically; yet, there are also reasons for suspecting that diversification and divergence might not be correlated. In the widely distributed squirrel clade (Sciuridae), we test for correlations between per lineage speciation rates, species richness, disparity, and a time‐invariant measure of disparity that allows for comparing rates when evolutionary modes differ, as they do in squirrels. We find that species richness and speciation rates are not correlated with clade age or with each other. Disparity appears to be positively correlated with clade age because young, rapidly diversifying Nearctic grassland clades are strongly pulled to a single stable optimum but older, slowly diversifying Paleotropical forest clades contain lineages that diverge along multiple ecological and morphological lines. That contrast is likely due to both the environments they inhabit and their phylogenetic community structure. Our results argue against a shared explanation for diversity and disparity in favor of geographically mediated modes of speciation and ecologically mediated modes of phenotypic evolution.     

Global patterns of diversification and species richness in amphibians

Geographic patterns of species richness ultimately arise through the processes of speciation, extinction, and dispersal, but relatively few studies consider evolutionary and biogeographic processes in explaining these diversity patterns. One explanation for high tropical species richness is that many species-rich clades originated in tropical regions and spread to temperate regions infrequently and more recently, leaving little time for species richness to accumulate there (assuming similar rates of diversification in temperate and tropical regions). However, the major clades of anurans (frogs) and salamanders may offer a compelling counterexample. Most salamander families are predominately temperate in distribution, but the one primarily tropical clade (Bolitoglossinae) contains nearly half of all salamander species. Similarly, most basal clades of anurans are predominately temperate, but one largely tropical clade (Neobatrachia) contains approximately 96% of anurans. In this article, I examine patterns of diversification in frogs and salamanders and their relationship to large-scale patterns of species richness in amphibians. I find that diversification rates in both frogs and salamanders increase significantly with decreasing latitude. These results may shed light on both the evolutionary causes of the latitudinal diversity gradient and the dramatic but poorly explained disparities in the diversity of living amphibian clades.     

Phylogeny,niche conservatism and the latitudinal diversity gradient in mammals

Biologists have long searched for mechanisms responsible for the increase in species richness with decreasing latitude. The strong correlation between species richness and climate is frequently interpreted as reflecting a causal link via processes linked to energy or evolutionary rates. Here, we investigate how the aggregation of clades, as dictated by phylogeny, can give rise to significant climate–richness gradients without gradients in diversification or environmental carrying capacity. The relationship between climate and species richness varies considerably between clades, regions and time periods in a global-scale phylogenetically informed analysis of all terrestrial mammal species. Many young clades show negative richness–temperature slopes (more species at cooler temperatures), with the ages of these clades coinciding with the expansion of temperate climate zones in the late Eocene. In carnivores, we find steeply positive richness–temperature slopes in clades with restricted distributions and tropical origins (e.g. cat clade), whereas widespread, temperate clades exhibit shallow, negative slopes (e.g. dog–bear clade). We show that the slope of the global climate–richness gradient in mammals is driven by aggregating Chiroptera (bats) with their Eutherian sister group. Our findings indicate that the evolutionary history should be accounted for as part of any search for causal links between environment and species richness.