Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations

Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses (PVA). Aboriginal traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) on subpopulation trend agreed with the seven stable/increasing results and one of the declining results, but disagreed with PVA status of five other declining subpopulations. The decline in the Baffin Bay subpopulation appeared to be due to over‐reporting of harvested numbers from outside Canada. The remaining four disputed subpopulations (Southern Beaufort Sea, Northern Beaufort Sea, Southern Hudson Bay, and Western Hudson Bay) were all incompletely mark–recapture (M‐R) sampled, which may have biased their survival and subpopulation estimates. Three of the four incompletely sampled subpopulations were PVA identified as nonviable (i.e., declining even with zero harvest mortality). TEK disagreement was nonrandom with respect to M‐R sampling protocols. Cluster analysis also grouped subpopulations with ambiguous demographic and harvest rate estimates separately from those with apparently reliable demographic estimates based on PVA probability of decline and unharvested subpopulation growth rate criteria. We suggest that the correspondence between TEK and scientific results can be used to improve the reliability of information on natural systems and thus improve resource management. Considering both TEK and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis. We suggest that monitoring the impacts of climate change (including sea ice decline) on polar bear subpopulations should be continued and enhanced and that adaptive management practices are warranted.     

Effects of Earlier Sea Ice Breakup on Survival and Population Size of Polar Bears in Western Hudson Bay

ABSTRACT Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5–19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as projected.     

Bear-hybrids: behaviour and phenotype

The behaviour of a female and a male bear hybrid (brown bear Ursus arctos x polar bear Ursus maritimus) was studied. Behavioural and morphological comparisons between the hybrids and the two parent-species were made.The observation period covered July to November 2007. Different objects were offered to the bears to evoke new patterns of behaviour. While manipulating the offered objects, both bears showed elements of behaviour also found in polar bears, though the male performed those to a larger extend. Not only in the way of manipulating objects but also in the male's type of stereotype parallels to polar bears can be drawn. Phenotypically both bears possess features of both species, brown bear and polar bear. Concerning it lighter colour of fur and the structure of hair the female hybrid resembles more a polar bear than the male. Summarising, the female appears phenotypically more like a polar bear, the male with respect to the behaviour.     

Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin,Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010–2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large‐bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice‐free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on‐ice feeding opportunities for polar bears.     

Can whisker spot patterns be used to identify individual polar bears?

Studies of population dynamics, movement patterns and animal behavior usually require identification of individuals. We evaluated the reliability of using whisker spot patterns to noninvasively identify individual polar bears Ursus maritimus . We obtained the locations of polar bear whisker spots from photographs taken in western Hudson Bay, tested the independence of spot locations, estimated the complexity of each spot pattern in terms of information and determined whether each whisker spot pattern was reliable from its information content. Of the 50 whisker spot patterns analyzed, 98% contained enough information to be reliable, and this result varied little among observers. Photographs taken <50 m from polar bears were most useful. Our results suggest that individual identification of polar bears in the field based on whisker spot pattern variations is reliable. Researchers studying polar bear behavior or estimating population parameters can benefit from this method if proximity to the bears is feasible.     

Temporal change in the morphometry–body mass relationship of polar bears

Accurate information on animal body mass is often an essential component of wildlife research and management. However, for many large-bodied species, obtaining direct scale weights from individuals may be difficult. In these cases, morphometric equations (e.g., based on girth or length) may provide accurate and precise estimates of body mass. We developed predictive equations to estimate the body mass of free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Using multiple linear and non-linear regression, we identified a strong relationship between polar bear body weight and linear measures of straight line length and axillary girth. The mass–morphometry relationship appeared to change over time and we developed separate equations for polar bears measured during 2 time periods, 1980–1996 and 2007–2009. Non-linear models were more accurate and provided body mass estimates within 5.8% (R² = 0.98) and 6.1% (R² = 0.98) of scale weight in the earlier and later time periods, respectively. Earlier equations developed for polar bears in this subpopulation performed poorly when applied to recently sampled individuals. In contrast, some contemporary equations from other regions performed reasonably well, suggesting that temporal changes within a subpopulation may be more pronounced than regional differences and can render earlier predictive equations obsolete. Our results have important implications for current and future studies of polar bear body condition and the effects of ongoing climate warming. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

What to eat now? Shifts in polar bear diet during the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay

Under current climate trends, spring ice breakup in Hudson Bay is advancing rapidly, leaving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) less time to hunt seals during the spring when they accumulate the majority of their annual fat reserves. For this reason, foods that polar bears consume during the ice‐free season may become increasingly important in alleviating nutritional stress from lost seal hunting opportunities. Defining how the terrestrial diet might have changed since the onset of rapid climate change is an important step in understanding how polar bears may be reacting to climate change. We characterized the current terrestrial diet of polar bears in western Hudson Bay by evaluating the contents of passively sampled scat and comparing it to a similar study conducted 40 years ago. While the two terrestrial diets broadly overlap, polar bears currently appear to be exploiting increasingly abundant resources such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and newly available resources such as eggs. This opportunistic shift is similar to the diet mixing strategy common among other Arctic predators and bear species. We discuss whether the observed diet shift is solely a response to a nutritional stress or is an expression of plastic foraging behavior.     

Assessing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population structure in the Hudson Bay region using SNPs

Defining subpopulations using genetics has traditionally used data from microsatellite markers to investigate population structure; however, single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have emerged as a tool for detection of fine‐scale structure. In Hudson Bay, Canada, three polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations (Foxe Basin (FB), Southern Hudson Bay (SH), and Western Hudson Bay (WH)) have been delineated based on mark–recapture studies, radiotelemetry and satellite telemetry, return of marked animals in the subsistence harvest, and population genetics using microsatellites. We used SNPs to detect fine‐scale population structure in polar bears from the Hudson Bay region and compared our results to the current designations using 414 individuals genotyped at 2,603 SNPs. Analyses based on discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and STRUCTURE support the presence of four genetic clusters: (i) Western—including individuals sampled in WH, SH (excluding Akimiski Island in James Bay), and southern FB (south of Southampton Island); (ii) Northern—individuals sampled in northern FB (Baffin Island) and Davis Strait (DS) (Labrador coast); (iii) Southeast—individuals from SH (Akimiski Island in James Bay); and (iv) Northeast—individuals from DS (Baffin Island). Population structure differed from microsatellite studies and current management designations demonstrating the value of using SNPs for fine‐scale population delineation in polar bears.     

Assessing stress in Western Hudson Bay polar bears using hair cortisol concentration as a biomarker

The development of novel biomarkers to help assess whether polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health is impacted by long-term physiological stress associated with climate change represents an emerging area of research. Reductions in sea ice cover and food availability are potentially stressful, and chronic stress can have deleterious effects that may impair individual and population level health. Cortisol is the principal effector hormone of the stress response and has previously been linked to aspects of polar bear life history (e.g., reproduction and growth) known to be negatively influenced by environmental change. Understanding stress is important for polar bears at the southern limit of their range, such as those in Western Hudson Bay (WH), where rapidly changing sea ice phenology threatens population viability. We examined the relationships between age, reproductive status, and body condition (fatness) and hair cortisol concentration (HCC) in 729 polar bear hair samples collected in WH from 2004–2013. Overall, there was a negative relationship between fatness and HCC, suggesting that bears in poorer body condition experienced higher levels of stress. However, when reproductive status was included in our analysis, this relationship only held for male and lone female bears. Females with dependent offspring had consistently low fatness and elevated HCC, likely because of the high cost of maternal care. We also found a positive correlation between HCC and age for: (1) bears in poor body condition, possibly due to nutritional stress compounding effects of aging; and (2) male bears, potentially due to stress and injury associated with intrasexual mate competition. These findings support the use of HCC as a biomarker for polar bear health. Furthermore, we have established a HCC benchmark against which future population-level effects of climate change in WH polar bears can be compared.     

Genomic Evidence for Island Population Conversion Resolves Conflicting Theories of Polar Bear Evolution

Despite extensive genetic analysis, the evolutionary relationship between polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (U. arctos) remains unclear. The two most recent comprehensive reports indicate a recent divergence with little subsequent admixture or a much more ancient divergence followed by extensive admixture. At the center of this controversy are the Alaskan ABC Islands brown bears that show evidence of shared ancestry with polar bears. We present an analysis of genome-wide sequence data for seven polar bears, one ABC Islands brown bear, one mainland Alaskan brown bear, and a black bear (U. americanus), plus recently published datasets from other bears. Surprisingly, we find clear evidence for gene flow from polar bears into ABC Islands brown bears but no evidence of gene flow from brown bears into polar bears. Importantly, while polar bears contributed <1% of the autosomal genome of the ABC Islands brown bear, they contributed 6.5% of the X chromosome. The magnitude of sex-biased polar bear ancestry and the clear direction of gene flow suggest a model wherein the enigmatic ABC Island brown bears are the descendants of a polar bear population that was gradually converted into brown bears via male-dominated brown bear admixture. We present a model that reconciles heretofore conflicting genetic observations. We posit that the enigmatic ABC Islands brown bears derive from a population of polar bears likely stranded by the receding ice at the end of the last glacial period. Since then, male brown bear migration onto the island has gradually converted these bears into an admixed population whose phenotype and genotype are principally brown bear, except at mtDNA and X-linked loci. This process of genome erosion and conversion may be a common outcome when climate change or other forces cause a population to become isolated and then overrun by species with which it can hybridize.     

Quantitative Support for a Subjective Fatness Index for Immobilized Polar Bears

ABSTRACT Adequate stores of body fat are essential for survival and reproduction of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, polar bear body fat levels can be difficult to quantify in the field. For >30 years, biologists have subjectively estimated relative fatness of immobilized polar bears by assigning individuals a rating from 1 to 5, with 1 being leanest and 5 most obese. Although previous studies suggested this fatness index (FI) rating accurately reflects large-scale differences in body condition, its relationship to more quantitative measures of condition has not been explored. We compared the FI rating of individual polar bears in western Hudson Bay and the Beaufort Sea to 2 quantitative measures of body condition: the Quetelet Index (ratio of mass to length²) and the relative lipid content of adipose tissue. We found a significant relationship between FI rating and both Quetelet Index values and adipose lipid content. Our data demonstrate that the FI rating accurately reflects overall body condition, regardless of polar bear age, sex, or nutritional phase. We suggest that continued field use of the FI rating could provide valuable information on ecological effects of large-scale environmental change on polar bear populations.     

Efficacy of Bear Deterrent Spray in Alaska

Abstract: We present a comprehensive look at a sample of bear spray incidents that occurred in Alaska, USA, from 1985 to 2006. We analyzed 83 bear spray incidents involving brown bears (Ursus arctos; 61 cases, 74%), black bears (Ursus americanus; 20 cases, 24%), and polar bears (Ursus maritimus; 2 cases, 2%). Of the 72 cases where persons sprayed bears to defend themselves, 50 (69%) involved brown bears, 20 (28%) black bears, and 2 (3%) polar bears. Red pepper spray stopped bears' undesirable behavior 92% of the time when used on brown bears, 90% for black bears, and 100% for polar bears. Of all persons carrying sprays, 98% were uninjured by bears in close-range encounters. All bear—inflicted injuries (n = 3) associated with defensive spraying involved brown bears and were relatively minor (i.e., no hospitalization required). In 7% (5 of 71) of bear spray incidents, wind was reported to have interfered with spray accuracy, although it reached the bear in all cases. In 14% (10 of 71) of bear spray incidents, users reported the spray having had negative side effects upon themselves, ranging from minor irritation (11%, 8 of 71) to near incapacitation (3%, 2 of 71). Bear spray represents an effective alternative to lethal force and should be considered as an option for personal safety for those recreating and working in bear country. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):640–645; 2008)     

Heritability of body size in the polar bears of Western Hudson Bay

Among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), fitness is dependent on body size through males’ abilities to win mates, females’ abilities to provide for their young and all bears’ abilities to survive increasingly longer fasting periods caused by climate change. In the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation (near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada), polar bears have declined in body size and condition, but nothing is known about the genetic underpinnings of body size variation, which may be subject to natural selection. Here, we combine a 4449‐individual pedigree and an array of 5,433 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to provide the first quantitative genetic study of polar bears. We used animal models to estimate heritability (h²) among polar bears handled between 1966 and 2011, obtaining h² estimates of 0.34–0.48 for strictly skeletal traits and 0.18 for axillary girth (which is also dependent on fatness). We genotyped 859 individuals with the SNP array to test for marker–trait association and combined p‐values over genetic pathways using gene‐set analysis. Variation in all traits appeared to be polygenic, but we detected one region of moderately large effect size in body length near a putative noncoding RNA in an unannotated region of the genome. Gene‐set analysis suggested that variation in body length was associated with genes in the regulatory cascade of cyclin expression, which has previously been associated with body size in mice. A greater understanding of the genetic architecture of body size variation will be valuable in understanding the potential for adaptation in polar bear populations challenged by climate change.     

Observation of a polar bear with rabies

On 1 November 1989 the first confirmed case of rabies in a polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was encountered by Inuit hunters in the vicinity of Cape Kendall, Southampton Island, Northwest Territories (Canada). The adult male polar bear had posterior paralysis. Rabies was detected by mouse inoculation and a positive immunoperoxidase reaction on spinal cord and Gasserian ganglion from the bear. Histologic lesions in the lumbar region of the spinal cord were consistent with the posterior paralysis. The impact of rabies on the population dynamics of polar bears probably is minimal. Rabies in polar bears constitutes a potential health hazard for polar bear hunters.     

Population substructure and space use of Foxe Basin polar bears

Climate change has been identified as a major driver of habitat change, particularly for sea ice-dependent species such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Population structure and space use of polar bears have been challenging to quantify because of their circumpolar distribution and tendency to range over large areas. Knowledge of movement patterns, home range, and habitat is needed for conservation and management. This is the first study to examine the spatial ecology of polar bears in the Foxe Basin management unit of Nunavut, Canada. Foxe Basin is in the mid-Arctic, part of the seasonal sea ice ecoregion and it is being negatively affected by climate change. Our objectives were to examine intrapopulation spatial structure, to determine movement patterns, and to consider how polar bear movements may respond to changing sea ice habitat conditions. Hierarchical and fuzzy cluster analyses were used to assess intrapopulation spatial structure of geographic position system satellite-collared female polar bears. Seasonal and annual movement metrics (home range, movement rates, time on ice) and home-range fidelity (static and dynamic overlap) were compared to examine the influence of regional sea ice on movements. The polar bears were distributed in three spatial clusters, and there were differences in the movement metrics between clusters that may reflect sea ice habitat conditions. Within the clusters, bears moved independently of each other. Annual and seasonal home-range fidelity was observed, and the bears used two movement patterns: on-ice range residency and annual migration. We predict that home-range fidelity may decline as the spatial and temporal predictability of sea ice changes. These new findings also provide baseline information for managing and monitoring this polar bear population.     

Field Metabolic Rate and PCB Adipose Tissue Deposition Efficiency in East Greenland Polar Bears Derived from Contaminant Monitoring Data

Climate change will increasingly affect the natural habitat and diet of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Understanding the energetic needs of polar bears is therefore important. We developed a theoretical method for estimating polar bear food consumption based on using the highly recalcitrant polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener, 2,2′,4,4′,55-hexaCB (CB153) in bear adipose tissue as an indicator of food intake. By comparing the CB153 tissue concentrations in wild polar bears with estimates from a purposely designed individual-based model, we identified the possible combinations of field metabolic rates (FMR) and CB153 deposition efficiencies in East Greenland polar bears. Our simulations indicate that if 30% of the CB153 consumed by polar bear individuals were deposited into their adipose tissue, the corresponding FMR would be only two times the basal metabolic rate. In contrast, if the modelled CB153 deposition efficiency were 10%, adult polar bears would require six times more energy than that needed to cover basal metabolism. This is considerably higher than what has been assumed for polar bears in previous studies though it is similar to FMRs found in other marine mammals. An implication of this result is that even relatively small reductions in future feeding opportunities could impact the survival of East Greenland polar bears.     

Has early ice clearance increased predation on breeding birds by polar bears?

Past studies suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) consume terrestrial food only opportunistically and derive little nutritional benefit from it. Here, we present observations of at least 6 bears consuming large numbers of snow goose (Chen caerulescens) eggs at two locations in the eastern low Arctic in 2004 and 2006. We also report two records of a polar bear eating the eggs and chicks of cliff-nesting thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) in 2000 and 2003. Climatic warming has resulted in progressively earlier ice break-up in Hudson Bay, forcing bears ashore much earlier than historical records indicate. Advancement in the nesting dates of birds has been more modest, and this mismatch in timing could lead to an increasing overlap between the nesting period of birds and the period during which bears are on land. At these sites in these years, bears were on land prior to the hatch of nests, and the predation that ensued was catastrophic for the birds at a local scale. Although anecdotal, our observations highlight the complexity of trophic interactions that may occur in a changing Arctic.     

Implications of the Circumpolar Genetic Structure of Polar Bears for Their Conservation in a Rapidly Warming Arctic

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.     

The effects of forest fires on polar bear maternity denning habitat in western Hudson Bay

The effects of forest fires on polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternity denning habitat in western Hudson Bay were determined by comparing the physical characteristics of 48 burned and 101 unburned maternity den sites from September 2001 to October 2003. Fire significantly altered vegetation composition and increased the depth of the active layer, resulting in a decrease in the stability of den sites, the collapse of dens, and degradation of the surrounding habitat. Although bears investigated burned areas, analysis of mark and recapture data, satellite telemetry, radio-telemetry, and field observations all demonstrated that bears did not use burned areas for denning. While peat denning habitat is likely not limiting at this time, the re-use and occupancy of peat den sites during the summer may be an important means of energy conservation for pregnant female bears in western Hudson Bay. Increased energy expenditures in association with increased search times for suitable den sites and the excavation of new dens can potentially affect reproductive success. Predicted increases in forest fire activity as a result of climate change, along with the long-term recovery of denning habitat may reduce the amount of suitable denning habitat in the future. Resource managers need to be aware of the possibility of a shift in the distribution of denning bears and further loss of maternity denning habitat in western Hudson Bay.     

Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Background

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.

Principal Findings

Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21^st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.

Conclusions/Significance

Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.