Seroprevalence of pertussis in The Netherlands: evidence for increased circulation of Bordetella pertussis

Background

In many countries, the reported pertussis has increased despite high vaccination coverage. However, accurate determination of the burden of disease is hampered by reporting artifacts. The infection frequency is more reliably estimated on the basis of the prevalence of high IgG concentrations against pertussis toxin (IgG-Ptx). We determined whether the increase in reported pertussis in the last decade is associated with an increase in the number of infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a cross-sectional population-based serosurveillance study conducted in 2006-07, from a randomly selected age-stratified sample of 7,903 persons, serum IgG-Ptx concentrations were analyzed using a fluorescent bead-based multiplex immuno assay. In 2006-07, 9.3% (95%CI 8.5-10.1) of the population above 9 years of age had an IgG-Ptx concentration above 62.5 EU/ml (suggestive for pertussis infection in the past year), which was more than double compared to 1995-96 (4.0%; 95%CI 3.3-4.7). The reported incidence showed a similar increase as the seroprevalence between both periods.

Conclusions

Although changes in the vaccination program have reduced pertussis morbidity in childhood, they have not affected the increased infection rate in adolescent and adult pertussis. Indeed, the high circulation of B. pertussis in the latter age-categories may limit the effectiveness of pediatric vaccination.     

A Rapid Diagnostic Test for Toxoplasmosis using Recombinant Antigenic N-terminal Half of SAG1 Linked with Intrinsically Unstructured Domain of GRA2 Protein

Toxoplasma gondii is an apicomplexan parasite with a broad host range of most warm-blooded mammals including humans, of which one-thirds of the human population has been infected worldwide which can cause congenital defects, abortion, and neonatal complications. Here, we developed a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for T. gondii infection. Antigenic N-terminal half of the major surface antigen (SAG1) was linked with intrinsically unstructured domain (IUD) of dense granule protein 2 (GRA2). The recombinant GST-GRA2-SAG1A protein was successfully expressed and purified as 51 kDa of molecular weight. Furthermore, antigenicity and solubility of the rGST-GRA2-SAG1A protein were significantly increased. The overall specificity and sensitivity of GST-GRA2-SAG1A loaded RDT (TgRDT) were estimated as 100% and 97.1% by comparing with ELISA result which uses T. gondii whole cell lysates as the antigen. The TgRDT tested with Uganda people sera for field trial and showed 31.9% of seroprevalence against T. gondii antibody. The TgRDT is proved to be a kit for rapid and easy to use with high accuracy, which would be a suitable serodiagnostic tool for toxoplasmosis.     

Schmallenberg Virus Circulation in Culicoides in Belgium in 2012: Field Validation of a Real Time RT-PCR Approach to Assess Virus Replication and Dissemination in Midges

Indigenous Culicoides biting midges are suggested to be putative vectors for the recently emerged Schmallenberg virus (SBV) based on SBV RNA detection in field-caught midges. Furthermore, SBV replication and dissemination has been evidenced in C. sonorensis under laboratory conditions. After SBV had been detected in Culicoides biting midges from Belgium in August 2011, it spread all over the country by the end of 2011, as evidenced by very high between-herd seroprevalence rates in sheep and cattle. This study investigated if a renewed SBV circulation in midges occurred in 2012 in the context of high seroprevalence in the animal host population and evaluated if a recently proposed realtime RT-PCR approach that is meant to allow assessing the vector competence of Culicoides for SBV and bluetongue virus under laboratory conditions was applicable to field-caught midges. Therefore midges caught with 12 OVI traps in four different regions in Belgium between May and November 2012, were morphologically identified, age graded, pooled and tested for the presence of SBV RNA by realtime RT-PCR. The results demonstrate that although no SBV could be detected in nulliparous midges caught in May 2012, a renewed but short lived circulation of SBV in parous midges belonging to the subgenus Avaritia occured in August 2012 at all four regions. The infection prevalence reached up to 2.86% in the south of Belgium, the region where a lower seroprevalence was found at the end of 2011 than in the rest of the country. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of the Ct values obtained for 31 SBV-S segment positive pools of Avaritia midges showed a clear bimodal distribution with peaks of Ct values between 21–24 and 33–36. This closely resembles the laboratory results obtained for SBV infection of C. sonorensis and implicates indigenous midges belonging to the subgenus Avaritia as competent vectors for SBV.     

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Pertussis Toxin among Different Age Groups in Thailand after 37 Years of Universal Whole-Cell Pertussis Vaccination

Despite the high coverage of prophylactic vaccine against Bordetella pertussis infection in many countries for more than three decades, pertussis remains a common vaccine-preventable disease. Infections have been detected more commonly in countries using acellular pertussis vaccine in their Expanded Program of Immunization. Thailand implemented a routine infant immunization program with whole-cell pertussis vaccine in 1977, and since 1992, the national vaccine policy has offered a five-dose whole-cell pertussis vaccine for children given at the ages of 2, 4, 6, 18, and 48 months. This study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of antibodies to pertussis toxin among healthy people across all ages to determine the level of whole-cell vaccine-induced immunity in the population, and to identify which age group should be targeted for a booster dose. The lowest seronegative rate and highest geometric mean concentrations were found in the 0–10 years age group, corresponding to their recent pertussis vaccination. The proportion of people with undetectable IgG level was prominent, starting after 11 years of age onwards. Now that a reduced-dose pertussis vaccine with fewer adverse effects is available, a booster dose during adolescence should be considered in order to reduce the incidence of pertussis disease. Further studies exploring how long the reduced-dose pertussis vaccine can provide protective immunity against pertussis disease when administered to adults and adolescents should also be performed.     

Negative trend in seroprevalence of anti-toxoplasma gondii IgG antibodies among the general population of the province of Vojvodina,Serbia, 2008–2021

This study aimed to estimate dynamic changes in seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii within the general population living in the northern part of the Republic of Serbia (Province of Vojvodina) during a 14-year period. The differences in prevalence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies were analyzed in correlation with age, gender, residential area (rural/urban) and meteorological factors. In this cohort retrospective study, 24,440 subjects between 1 and 88 years old were enrolled. To determine the presence of T. gondii-specific IgM and IgG antibodies in serum samples, commercially available ELISA kits were used (Euroimmun, Luebeck, Germany). During the study period, the overall T. gondii seroprevalence was 23.5%. The seroprevalence continuously decreased over time from 31.7% in 2008 to 20.4% in 2021 (0.81% per year, p < 0.001). Approximately 2% of patients had a serologic profile positive for both anti-Toxoplasma IgG and IgM antibodies. The seroprevalence was higher (28.87%) among men compared to women (24.28%), while urban residents (24.94%) had lower seroprevalence than the rural population (28.17%). A statistically significant negative correlation (r = −0.559) was found between serologic profile of patients positive for both T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies and the annual mean air temperature. No significant association was observed between seropositivity to T. gondii infection and examined meteorological factors. These data could be useful to national and regional health authorities to create an optimal health policy to reduce rate of T. gondii infections.     

Association of Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphism with Susceptibility to Symptomatic Pertussis

Pertussis, caused by infection with the gram negative B. pertussis bacterium, is a serious respiratory illness that can last for months. While B. pertussis infection rates are estimated between 1–10% in the general population, notifications of symptomatic pertussis only comprise 0.01–0.1% indicating that most individuals clear B. pertussis infections without developing (severe) clinical symptoms. In this study we investigated whether genetic risk factors are involved in the development of symptomatic pertussis upon B. pertussis infection. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes, MBL2, IL17A, TNFα, VDR, and IL10 were genotyped in a unique Dutch cohort of symptomatic clinically confirmed (ex-)pertussis patients and in a Dutch population cohort. Of the seven investigated SNPs in five genes, a polymorphism in the Vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene (rs10735810) was associated with pertussis. The VDR major allele and its homozygous genotype were more present in the symptomatic pertussis patient cohort compared to the control population cohort. Interestingly, the VDR major allele correlated also with the duration of reported pertussis symptoms. Vitamin D₃ (VD₃) and VDR are important regulators of immune activation. Altogether, these findings suggest that polymorphisms in the VDR gene may affect immune activation and the clinical outcome of B. pertussis infection.     

Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys

Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.     

Seroprevalence of Strongyloides stercoralis infection in a South Indian adult population

BackgroundThe prevalence of Strongyloides stercoralis infection is estimated to be 30–100 million worldwide, although this an underestimate. Most cases remain undiagnosed due to the asymptomatic nature of the infection. We wanted to estimate the seroprevalence of S. stercoralis infection in a South Indian adult population.MethodsTo this end, we performed community-based screening of 2351 individuals (aged 18–65) in Kanchipuram District of Tamil Nadu between 2013 and 2020. Serological testing for S. stercoralis was performed using the NIE ELISA.ResultsOur data shows a seroprevalence of 33% (768/2351) for S. stercoralis infection which had a higher prevalence among males 36% (386/1069) than among females 29.8% (382/1282). Adults aged ≥55 (aOR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.25–2.18) showed higher adjusted odds of association compared with other age groups. Eosinophil levels (39%) (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.19–1.74) and hemoglobin levels (24%) (aOR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11–1.53) were significantly associated with S. stercoralis infection. In contrast, low BMI (aOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.82–1.61) or the presence of diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.83–1.69) was not associated with S. stercoralis seropositivity.ConclusionsOur study provides evidence for a very high baseline prevalence of S. stercoralis infection in South Indian communities and this information could provide realistic and concrete planning of control measures.     

Small Mutations in Bordetella pertussis Are Associated with Selective Sweeps

Bordetella pertussis is the causative agent of pertussis, a highly contagious disease of the human respiratory tract. Despite high vaccination coverage, pertussis has resurged and has become one of the most prevalent vaccine-preventable diseases in developed countries. We have proposed that both waning immunity and pathogen adaptation have contributed to the persistence and resurgence of pertussis. Allelic variation has been found in virulence-associated genes coding for the pertussis toxin A subunit (ptxA), pertactin (prn), serotype 2 fimbriae (fim2), serotype 3 fimbriae (fim3) and the promoter for pertussis toxin (ptxP). In this study, we investigated how more than 60 years of vaccination has affected the Dutch B. pertussis population by combining data from phylogeny, genomics and temporal trends in strain frequencies. Our main focus was on the ptxA, prn, fim3 and ptxP genes. However, we also compared the genomes of 11 Dutch strains belonging to successful lineages. Our results showed that, between 1949 and 2010, the Dutch B. pertussis population has undergone as least four selective sweeps that were associated with small mutations in ptxA, prn, fim3 and ptxP. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a stepwise adaptation in which mutations accumulated clonally. Genomic analysis revealed a number of additional mutations which may have a contributed to the selective sweeps. Five large deletions were identified which were fixed in the pathogen population. However, only one was linked to a selective sweep. No evidence was found for a role of gene acquisition in pathogen adaptation. Our results suggest that the B. pertussis gene repertoire is already well adapted to its current niche and required only fine tuning to persist in the face of vaccination. Further, this work shows that small mutations, even single SNPs, can drive large changes in the populations of bacterial pathogens within a time span of six to 19 years.     

A review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries

Background

Dynamic models of infection transmission can project future disease burden within a population. Few dynamic measles models have been developed for low-income countries, where measles disease burden is highest. Our objective was to review the literature on measles epidemiology in low-income countries, with a particular focus on data that are needed to parameterize dynamic models.

Methods

We included age-stratified case reporting and seroprevalence studies with fair to good sample sizes for mostly urban African and Indian populations. We emphasized studies conducted before widespread immunization. We summarized age-stratified attack rates and seroprevalence profiles across these populations. Using the study data, we fitted a "representative" seroprevalence profile for African and Indian settings. We also used a catalytic model to estimate the age-dependent force of infection for individual African and Indian studies where seroprevalence was surveyed. We used these data to quantify the effects of population density on the basic reproductive number R ₀.

Results

The peak attack rate usually occurred at age 1 year in Africa, and 1 to 2 years in India, which is earlier than in developed countries before mass vaccination. Approximately 60% of children were seropositive for measles antibody by age 2 in Africa and India, according to the representative seroprevalence profiles. A statistically significant decline in the force of infection with age was found in 4 of 6 Indian seroprevalence studies, but not in 2 African studies. This implies that the classic threshold result describing the critical proportion immune (p _c) required to eradicate an infectious disease, p _c = 1-1/R ₀, may overestimate the required proportion immune to eradicate measles in some developing country populations. A possible, though not statistically significant, positive relation between population density and R ₀ for various Indian and African populations was also found. These populations also showed a similar pattern of waning of maternal antibodies. Attack rates in rural Indian populations show little dependence on vaccine coverage or population density compared to urban Indian populations. Estimated R ₀ values varied widely across populations which has further implications for measles elimination.

Conclusions

It is possible to develop a broadly informative dynamic model of measles transmission in low-income country settings based on existing literature, though it may be difficult to develop a model that is closely tailored to any given country. Greater efforts to collect data specific to low-income countries would aid in control efforts by allowing highly population-specific models to be developed.     

Seroprevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus,Hepatitis B Virus,Hepatitis C Virus,and Treponema pallidum Infections among Blood Donors on Bioko Island,Equatorial Guinea

Background

Regular screening of transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs), such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus (HBV and HCV, respectively), and Treponema pallidum, in blood donors is essential to guaranteeing clinical transfusion safety. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of four TTIs among blood donors on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea (EG).

Methods

A retrospective survey of blood donors from January 2011 to April 2013 was conducted to assess the presence of HIV, HBV, HCV and T. pallidum. The medical records were analyzed to verify the seroprevalence of these TTIs among blood donations stratified by gender, age and geographical region.

Results

Of the total 2937 consecutive blood donors, 1098 (37.39%) had a minimum of one TTI and 185 (6.29%) harbored co-infections. The general seroprevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV and T. pallidum were 7.83%, 10.01%, 3.71% and 21.51%, respectively. The most frequent TTI co-infections were HBV-T. pallidum 60 (2.04%) and HIV-T. pallidum 46 (1.57%). The seroprevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV and T. pallidum were highest among blood donors 38 to 47 years, 18 to 27 years and ≥ 48 years age, respectively (P<0.05). The seroprevalence of TTIs varied according to the population from which the blood was collected on Bioko Island.

Conclusions

Our results firstly provide a comprehensive overview of TTIs among blood donors on Bioko Island. Strict screening of blood donors and improved hematological examinations using standard operating procedures are recommended.     

Seroprevalence of fasciolosis in Hokkaido sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis) from Hokkaido Prefecture,Japan revealed by ELISA using recombinant cathepsin L1

Fasciolosis, a zoonotic disease caused by liver flukes of the genus Fasciola, has been reported in Hokkaido (Yezo) sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis) in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan; however, the actual seroprevalence in the animal has not been adequately evaluated. The objective of the present study was to analyze the seroprevalence of the disease among Hokkaido sika deer. Recombinant cathepsin L1 (rCatL1) was used as an antigen for an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect antibodies against Fasciola flukes. The sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA were 84.6% and 100%, respectively. The average seroprevalence in 1109 Hokkaido sika deer from 20 locations in Hokkaido Prefecture was 43.9%. Mature deer showed higher seroprevalence than younger individuals; however, even younger animals may act as a reservoir for the disease. Monitoring infection levels in the Hokkaido sika deer population is important not only for the livestock industry, but also for preventing human fasciolosis.     

Genome-Wide Gene Expression Analysis of Bordetella pertussis Isolates Associated with a Resurgence in Pertussis: Elucidation of Factors Involved in the Increased Fitness of Epidemic Strains

Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) is the causative agent of whooping cough, which is a highly contagious disease in the human respiratory tract. Despite vaccination since the 1950s, pertussis remains the most prevalent vaccine-preventable disease in developed countries. A recent resurgence pertussis is associated with the expansion of B. pertussis strains with a novel allele for the pertussis toxin (ptx) promoter ptxP3 in place of resident ptxP1 strains. The recent expansion of ptxP3 strains suggests that these strains carry mutations that have increased their fitness. Compared to the ptxP1 strains, ptxP3 strains produce more Ptx, which results in increased virulence and immune suppression. In this study, we investigated the contribution of gene expression changes of various genes on the increased fitness of the ptxP3 strains. Using genome-wide gene expression profiling, we show that several virulence genes had higher expression levels in the ptxP3 strains compared to the ptxP1 strains. We provide the first evidence that wildtype ptxP3 strains are better colonizers in an intranasal mouse infection model. This study shows that the ptxP3 mutation and the genetic background of ptxP3 strains affect fitness by contributing to the ability to colonize in a mouse infection model. These results show that the genetic background of ptxP3 strains with a higher expression of virulence genes contribute to increased fitness.     

Increased population prevalence of low pertussis toxin antibody levels in young children preceding a record pertussis epidemic in Australia

Background

Cross-sectional serosurveys using IgG antibody to pertussis toxin (IgG-PT) are increasingly being used to estimate trends in recent infection independent of reporting biases.

Methods/Principal Findings

We compared the age-specific seroprevalence of various levels of IgG-PT in cross-sectional surveys using systematic collections of residual sera from Australian diagnostic laboratories in 1997/8, 2002 and 2007 with reference to both changes in the pertussis vaccine schedule and the epidemic cycle, as measured by disease notifications. A progressive decline in high-level (≥62.5 EU/ml) IgG-PT prevalence from 19% (95% CI 16–22%) in 1997/98 to 12% (95% CI 11–14%) in 2002 and 5% (95% CI 4–6%) in 2007 was consistent with patterns of pertussis notifications in the year prior to each collection. Concomitantly, the overall prevalence of undetectable (<5 EU/ml) levels increased from 17% (95% CI 14–20%) in 1997/98 to 38% (95% CI 36–40%) in 2007 but among children aged 1–4 years, from 25% (95% CI 17–34%) in 1997/98 to 62% (95% CI 56–68%) in 2007. This change followed withdrawal of the 18-month booster dose in 2003 and preceded record pertussis notifications from 2008 onwards.

Conclusions/Significance

Population seroprevalence of high levels of IgG-PT is accepted as a reliable indicator of pertussis disease activity over time within and between countries with varying diagnostic practices, especially in unimmunised age groups. Our novel findings suggest that increased prevalence of undetectable IgG-PT is an indicator of waning immunity useful for population level monitoring following introduction of acellular vaccines and/or schedule changes.     

Serosurveillance for Livestock Pathogens in Free-Ranging Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus)

Routine disease surveillance has been conducted for decades in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in California for pathogens shared between wildlife and domestic ruminants that may have implications for the animal production industry and wildlife health. Deer sampled from 1990 to 2007 (n = 2,619) were tested for exposure to six pathogens: bluetongue virus (BTV), epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), Leptospira spp., Anaplasma spp. and Brucella spp. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to these pathogens and demographic risk factors to identify broad patterns in seroprevalence across a large temporal and spatial scale. The overall seroprevalence for the entire study period was 13.4% for BTV, 16.8% for EHDV, 17.1% for BVDV, 6.5% for Leptospira spp., 0.2% for Brucella spp., and 17% for Anaplasma spp. Antibodies against BTV and EHDV were most prevalent in the deer populations of southern California. Antibodies against Leptospira spp. and Anaplasma spp. were most prevalent in coastal and central northern California whereas antibodies against BVDV were most prevalent in central-eastern and northeastern California. The overall seroprevalence for Anaplasma spp. was slightly lower than detected in previous studies. North and central eastern California contains large tracts of federal land grazed by livestock; therefore, possible contact between deer and livestock could explain the high BVDV seroprevalence found in these areas. Findings from this study will help to establish baseline values for future comparisons of pathogen exposure in deer, inform on long-term trends in deer population health and provide relevant information on the distribution of diseases that are shared between wildlife and livestock.     

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

IntroductionSurveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented.MethodsWe investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples.ResultsNo estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000.ConclusionWe encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind.     

How Often Do They Have Sex? A Comparative Analysis of the Population Structure of Seven Eukaryotic Microbial Pathogens

The model of predominant clonal evolution (PCE) proposed for micropathogens does not state that genetic exchange is totally absent, but rather, that it is too rare to break the prevalent PCE pattern. However, the actual impact of this “residual” genetic exchange should be evaluated. Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) is an excellent tool to explore the problem. Here, we compared online available MLST datasets for seven eukaryotic microbial pathogens: Trypanosoma cruzi, the Fusarium solani complex, Aspergillus fumigatus, Blastocystis subtype 3, the Leishmania donovani complex, Candida albicans and Candida glabrata. We first analyzed phylogenetic relationships among genotypes within each dataset. Then, we examined different measures of branch support and incongruence among loci as signs of genetic structure and levels of past recombination. The analyses allow us to identify three types of genetic structure. The first was characterized by trees with well-supported branches and low levels of incongruence suggesting well-structured populations and PCE. This was the case for the T. cruzi and F. solani datasets. The second genetic structure, represented by Blastocystis spp., A. fumigatus and the L. donovani complex datasets, showed trees with weakly-supported branches but low levels of incongruence among loci, whereby genetic structuration was not clearly defined by MLST. Finally, trees showing weakly-supported branches and high levels of incongruence among loci were observed for Candida species, suggesting that genetic exchange has a higher evolutionary impact in these mainly clonal yeast species. Furthermore, simulations showed that MLST may fail to show right clustering in population datasets even in the absence of genetic exchange. In conclusion, these results make it possible to infer variable impacts of genetic exchange in populations of predominantly clonal micro-pathogens. Moreover, our results reveal different problems of MLST to determine the genetic structure in these organisms that should be considered.     

Variation in Immune Parameters and Disease Prevalence among Lesser Black-Backed Gulls (Larus fuscus sp.) with Different Migratory Strategies

The ability to control infections is a key trait for migrants that must be balanced against other costly features of the migratory life. In this study we explored the links between migration and disease ecology by examining natural variation in parasite exposure and immunity in several populations of Lesser Black-backed Gulls (Larus fuscus) with different migratory strategies. We found higher activity of natural antibodies in long distance migrants from the nominate subspecies L.f.fuscus. Circulating levels of IgY showed large variation at the population level, while immune parameters associated with antimicrobial activity showed extensive variation at the individual level irrespective of population or migratory strategy. Pathogen prevalence showed large geographical variation. However, the seroprevalence of one of the gull-specific subtypes of avian influenza (H16) was associated to the migratory strategy, with lower prevalence among the long-distance migrants, suggesting that migration may play a role in disease dynamics of certain pathogens at the population level.     

High Rates of Hepatitis C Virus Reinfection and Spontaneous Clearance of Reinfection in People Who Inject Drugs: A Prospective Cohort Study

Hepatitis C virus reinfection and spontaneous clearance of reinfection were examined in a highly characterised cohort of 188 people who inject drugs over a five-year period. Nine confirmed reinfections and 17 possible reinfections were identified (confirmed reinfections were those genetically distinct from the previous infection and possible reinfections were used to define instances where genetic differences between infections could not be assessed due to lack of availability of hepatitis C virus sequence data). The incidence of confirmed reinfection was 28.8 per 100 person-years (PY), 95%CI: 15.0-55.4; the combined incidence of confirmed and possible reinfection was 24.6 per 100 PY (95%CI: 16.8-36.1). The hazard of hepatitis C reinfection was approximately double that of primary hepatitis C infection; it did not reach statistical significance in confirmed reinfections alone (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.45, 95%CI: 0.87-6.86, p=0.089), but did in confirmed and possible hepatitis C reinfections combined (HR: 1.93, 95%CI: 1.01-3.69, p=0.047) and after adjustment for the number of recent injecting partners and duration of injecting. In multivariable analysis, shorter duration of injection (HR: 0.91; 95%CI: 0.83-0.98; p=0.019) and multiple recent injecting partners (HR: 3.12; 95%CI: 1.08-9.00, p=0.035) were independent predictors of possible and confirmed reinfection. Time to spontaneous clearance was shorter in confirmed reinfection (HR: 5.34, 95%CI: 1.67-17.03, p=0.005) and confirmed and possible reinfection (HR: 3.10, 95%CI: 1.10-8.76, p-value=0.033) than primary infection. Nonetheless, 50% of confirmed reinfections and 41% of confirmed or possible reinfections did not spontaneously clear. Conclusions: Hepatitis C reinfection and spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C reinfection were observed at high rates, suggesting partial acquired natural immunity to hepatitis C virus. Public health campaigns about the risks of hepatitis C reinfection are required.     

Using Classical Population Genetics Tools with Heterochroneous Data: Time Matters!

Background

New polymorphism datasets from heterochroneous data have arisen thanks to recent advances in experimental and microbial molecular evolution, and the sequencing of ancient DNA (aDNA). However, classical tools for population genetics analyses do not take into account heterochrony between subsets, despite potential bias on neutrality and population structure tests. Here, we characterize the extent of such possible biases using serial coalescent simulations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We first use a coalescent framework to generate datasets assuming no or different levels of heterochrony and contrast most classical population genetic statistics. We show that even weak levels of heterochrony (∼10% of the average depth of a standard population tree) affect the distribution of polymorphism substantially, leading to overestimate the level of polymorphism θ, to star like trees, with an excess of rare mutations and a deficit of linkage disequilibrium, which are the hallmark of e.g. population expansion (possibly after a drastic bottleneck). Substantial departures of the tests are detected in the opposite direction for more heterochroneous and equilibrated datasets, with balanced trees mimicking in particular population contraction, balancing selection, and population differentiation. We therefore introduce simple corrections to classical estimators of polymorphism and of the genetic distance between populations, in order to remove heterochrony-driven bias. Finally, we show that these effects do occur on real aDNA datasets, taking advantage of the currently available sequence data for Cave Bears (Ursus spelaeus), for which large mtDNA haplotypes have been reported over a substantial time period (22–130 thousand years ago (KYA)).

Conclusions/Significance

Considering serial sampling changed the conclusion of several tests, indicating that neglecting heterochrony could provide significant support for false past history of populations and inappropriate conservation decisions. We therefore argue for systematically considering heterochroneous models when analyzing heterochroneous samples covering a large time scale.