NATURAL SELECTION AND SEXUAL SIZE DIMORPHISM IN RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS

Patterns of overwinter mortality in the sexually dimorphic red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) were examined to test the predictions of the sexual-selection hypothesis that male size is limited by directional selection favoring small males and that female size is maintained by stabilizing selection wherein extreme phenotypes experience higher mortality. Museum specimens collected from Ontario over a 95-yr period were used to compare the sizes of males and females collected in fall and spring. In a separate field study, body sizes of returning and nonreturning male and female red-winged blackbirds were compared over a 6-yr period. Overall, there was no evidence of higher overwinter mortality among larger males. Among adult (ASY) males, large individuals appeared to have higher survival than small individuals, although among subadult (SY) males, large size may have been disadvantageous. Weak evidence of stabilizing selection on female body size was found. Among adults, sexual size dimorphism seemed more pronounced after winter than before winter. Our results do not support the hypothesis that body size in male red-winged blackbirds is limited by selective mortality outside the breeding season. It is possible that size selection occurs earlier in life, when males are still in the nest. Our results suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting interspecific evidence showing higher adult male than female mortality in sexually dimorphic species. Such patterns could arise as a cost to males of sexual selection and yet provide no insight into how natural selection opposes sexual selection for increased male size.     

Climatic and temporal effects on the expression of secondary sexual characters: genetic and environmental components

Despite great interest in sexual selection, relatively little is known in detail about the genetic and environmental determinants of secondary sexual characters in natural populations. Such information is important for determining the way in which populations may respond to sexual selection. We report analyses of genetic and large-scale environmental components of phenotypic variation of two secondary sexual plumage characters (forehead and wing patch size) in the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis over a 22-year period. We found significant heritability for both characters but little genetic covariance between the two. We found a positive association between forehead patch size and a large-scale climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, but not for wing patch. This pattern was observed in both cross-sectional and longitudinal data suggesting that the population response to NAO index can be explained as the result of phenotypic plasticity. Heritability of forehead patch size for old males, calculated under favorable conditions (NAO index > or = median), was greater than that under unfavorable conditions (NAO index < median). These changes occurred because there were opposing changes in additive genetic variance (VA) and residual variance (VR) under favorable and unfavorable conditions, with VA increasing and VR decreasing in good environments. However, no such effect was detected for young birds, or for wing patch size in either age class. In addition to these environmental effects on both phenotypic and genetic variances, we found evidence for a significant decrease of forehead patch size over time in older birds. This change appears to be caused by a change in the sign of viability selection on forehead patch size, which is associated with a decline in the breeding value of multiple breeders. Our data thus reveal complex patterns of environmental influence on the expression of secondary sexual characters, which may have important implications for understanding selection and evolution of these characters.     

Effects of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on breeding success in a long lived seabird

There is growing concern over the impacts of climate change on animal species. Many studies have demonstrated impacts of climate change at the population level, and density dependent effects of climate are frequently reported. However, there is an increasing recognition of the differential impact of such factors on individuals since there is marked variation in individual performance. We investigated the relationships between breeding success and environmental conditions (winter NAO and one year lagged winter NAO) and intrinsic effects (colony size, pair bond duration, past breeding success rate) in the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis , using data from a long-term study commenced in 1950. There was a negative trend in breeding success over time, and a negative relationship with winter NAO and lagged winter NAO, which themselves had shown positive increases over the study period. The effects of lagged winter NAO remained after accounting for the linear trend. There was no evidence of density dependence, with breeding success positively related to colony size. We found strong evidence that breeding success was negatively related to pair bond duration but positively related to past breeding success rate. There was also an interaction between these two intrinsic effects such that those pairs that had historically been successful maintained success with increasing pair bond duration, whereas less successful pairs showed a decline. The prediction that there would be a differential impact of extrinsic factors among pairs was supported by an interaction between past breeding success rate and winter NAO, such that pairs with low past success rate exhibited a sharp decline in breeding success with increasing winter NAO, whereas more successful pairs did not. It is critically important to understand interactions between extrinsic factors and individual heterogeneity since a differential impact on individuals will affect population structure, and hence population dynamics.     

Evolutionary changes in color patches of blackbirds are associated with marsh nesting

Fully unraveling the mechanisms of sexual selection requiresan understanding of the variation in secondary sexual traitsacross species in a monophyletic assemblage and an understandingof the evolutionary relationships between those species. Therole of red and yellow male plumage coloration in territorydefense and sexual selection has been well studied in the red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and males of many other close relatives of this species also have what appear to be carotenoid-pigmented patches in their plumage. We explored variation in male plumagecoloration across species of New World blackbirds (family Icteridae):traits known to be involved in sexual selection in this group.We document that blackbird lineages in which extant speciesbreed in marshes tend to have evolved from an all-black ancestralplumage to one exhibiting carotenoid plumage patches. The twomost likely hypotheses to explain this pattern are (1) increasedsexual selection intensity in marshes because of increasedvariance in territory quality and (2) increased frequency ofmale-male territorial interactions because of an increaseddensity of territories in marshes, but other hypotheses cannotbe ruled out. This pattern is consistent with either intersexualor intrasexual selection and warrants further investigation.     

BODY SIZE AND HAREM SIZE IN MALE RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS: MANIPULATING SELECTION WITH SEX-SPECIFIC FEEDERS

We experimentally manipulated the strength of selection in the field on red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) to test hypotheses about contrasting selective forces that favor either large or small males in sexually size dimorphic birds. Selander (1972) argued that sexual selection favors larger males, while survival selection eventually stabilizes male size because larger males do not survive as well as smaller males during harsh winters. Searcy (1979a) proposed instead that sexual selection may be self limiting: male size might be stabilized not by overwinter mortality, but by breeding-season sexual selection that favors smaller males. Under conditions of energetic stress, smaller males should be able to display more and thus achieve higher reproductive success. Using feeders that provisioned males or females but not both, we produced conditions that mimicked the extremes of natural conditions. We found experimental support for the hypothesis that when food is abundant, sexual selection favors larger males. But even under conditions of severe energetic stress, smaller males did not gain larger harems, as the self-limiting hypothesis predicted. Larger males were more energetically stressed than smaller males, but in ways that affected their future reproductive output rather than their current reproductive performance. Stressed males that returned had smaller wings and tails than those that did not return; among returning stressed males, relative harem sizes were inversely related to wing and tail length. Thus, male body size may be stabilized not by survival costs during the non-breeding season, nor by energetic costs during the breeding season, but by costs of future reproduction that larger males pay for their increased breeding-season effort.     

Limits to sexual size dimorphism in red‐winged blackbirds: the cost of getting big?

A fundamental assumption of sexual selection theory is that the reproductive advantage of large size is balanced by a survival disadvantage. Previous studies of the sexually size-dimorphic red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) have indicated that the largest adult males have a survival advantage, suggesting that the limit to male size may be the cost of getting big rather than the cost of being big. If the cost of getting big limits male size, then starvation rates for male nestlings should exceed those of female nestlings. In addition, given high heritability of body size, larger parents should lose more nestlings, particularly males, to starvation. We tested these predictions for red-winged blackbirds using data on the sex of 1356 fledglings from 465 nests collected over 10 years. We found no disadvantage for male nestlings relative to females – 49% of fledglings were male and previous research had shown that 48% of hatchlings are male. We also found no disadvantage for male nestlings that would become large adults (i.e. those with larger parents) – partial brood loss and fledging sex ratios did not vary with mid-parent size. Given no apparent disadvantage to large size for males either as adults or as nestlings, this leaves only the period between fledging and adulthood during which natural selection might limit sexual size dimorphism, although other mechanisms might explain the failure to find a limit to male size.  © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2005, 85 , 353–361.     

Carry‐over effects of conditions at the wintering grounds on breeding plumage signals in a migratory bird: roles of phenotypic plasticity and selection

To understand the consequences of ever‐changing environment on the dynamics of phenotypic traits, distinguishing between selection processes and individual plasticity is crucial. We examined individual consistency/plasticity in several male secondary sexual traits expressed during the breeding season (white wing and forehead patch size, UV reflectance of white wing patch and dorsal melanin coloration) in a migratory pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population over an 11‐year period. Furthermore, we studied carry‐over effects of three environmental variables (NAO, a climatic index; NDVI, a vegetation index; and rainfall) at the wintering grounds (during prebreeding moult) on the expression of these breeding plumage traits of pied flycatcher males at individual and population levels. Whereas NAO correlates negatively with moisture in West Africa, NDVI correlates positively with primary production. Forehead patch size and melanin coloration were highly consistent within individuals among years, whereas the consistency of the other two traits was moderate. Wing patch size decreased with higher NAO and increased with higher rainfall and NDVI at the individual level. Interestingly, small‐patched males suffered lower survival during high NAO winters than large‐patched males, and vice versa during low NAO winters. These counteracting processes meant that the individual‐level change was masked at the population level where no relationship was found. Our results provide a good example of how variation in the phenotypic composition of a natural population can be a result of both environment‐dependent individual plasticity and short‐term microevolution. Moreover, when plasticity and viability selection operate simultaneously, their impacts on population composition may not be evident.     

Geographical variation in sperm morphology in the red-winged blackbird (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Agelaius phoeniceus</Emphasis>)

Many species differ genetically, physiologically, and morphologically between geographically distinct populations, typically in response to variation in ecological and climatic variables. Little is known, however, about geographical variation in sperm morphology. Sperm morphology is under strong sexual selection, has been shown to evolve rapidly, and often co-varies with other reproductive traits (e.g., testis size or mating system) that differ between populations in some species. The aim of this study was to establish whether sperm morphology varies between populations of the red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), a species with an enormous breeding range and marked inter-population variation in both body size and mating system. We found (1) highly significant variation in sperm morphology among study sites, (2) a gradual increase in sperm length from the southwest to the northeast of the breeding range, and (3) a strong negative association between sperm length and body size. However, the relationship with the mating system remains unclear. Several hypotheses to explain these patterns are proposed.     

Effects of climate variation on timing of nesting,reproductive success,and offspring sex ratios of red-winged blackbirds

Predicting ecological consequences of climate change will be improved by understanding how species are affected by contemporary climate variation, particularly if analyses involve more than single ecological variables and focus on large-scale climate phenomena. I used 18 years of data from red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) studied over a 25-year period in eastern Ontario to explore chronological and climate-related patterns of reproduction. Although blackbirds started nesting earlier in years with warmer springs, associated with low winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), there was no advance in laying dates over the study. Nesting ended progressively later and the breeding season lasted longer over the study, however, associated with higher spring values of NAOI. As the length of the nesting season increased, offspring sex ratios became more female biased, apparently as a result of females adjusting the sex of the eggs they laid, rather than from sex-biased nestling mortality. Clutch size did not vary systematically over the study or with climate. Opposing trends of declining nest success and increasing productivity of successful nests over the study resulted in no chronological change in productivity per female. Higher productivity of successful nests was associated with higher winter NAOI values, possibly because synchrony between nesting and food availability was higher in years with high NAOI values. Other than the association between the start of nesting and spring temperatures, local weather (e.g., temperature, rainfall) patterns that linked NAOI with reproduction were not identified, suggesting that weather patterns may be complex. Because climate affected most aspects of red-winged blackbird reproduction examined, focusing on associations between climate and single variables (e.g., first-egg dates) will have limited value in predicting how future climates will affect populations.     

Environmental and demographic drivers of male mating success vary across sequential reproductive episodes in a polygynous breeder

Ecological and social factors underpinning the inequality of male mating success in animal societies can be related to sex ratio, sexual conflict between breeders, effects of nonbreeders, resource dispersion, climatic conditions, and the various sequential stages of mating competition that constitute the sexual selection process. Here, we conducted an individual‐based study to investigate how local resource availability and demography interact with annual climate conditions to determine the degree of male mating inequality, and thus opportunity for sexual selection across two sequential reproductive episodes (harem and subsequent mate acquisition) in a naturally regulated (feral) horse population in Sable Island National Park Preserve, Canada. Using a 5‐year, spatially explicit, mark‐resight dataset and hierarchical mixed‐effects linear modeling, we evaluated the influence of adult sex ratio (ASR) on mating success and then tested for effects of freshwater availability, density, unpaired male abundance, and precipitation during each breeding season. Unpaired male abundance, freshwater availability, and ASR differed in their effects on male mating success according to year and selection episode. Opportunity for sexual selection in males associated with harem acquisition increased with ASR, and unpaired male abundance further explained weather‐related interannual variation after accounting for ASR. In contrast, once a harem was secured, ASR had little effect on male mating inequality in regard to acquiring additional females, while interannual variation in mating inequality increased with decreasing freshwater availability. Our findings show that local demography, resource availability, and weather effect opportunity for sexual selection in males differently depending on selection episode, and can attenuate or accentuate effects of ASR.     

THE EVOLUTION OF FEMALE BODY SIZE IN RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS: THE EFFECTS OF TIMING OF BREEDING,SOCIAL COMPETITION,AND REPRODUCTIVE ENERGETICS

We examined opposing selective forces on female body size in the sexually dimorphic red-winged blackbird: social competition favoring larger females, and energetic advantages favoring smaller females. Downhower proposed that selection might drive female birds to be smaller than the optimum for survival, if smaller females were able to exceed their energetic requirements for self-maintenance earlier in the season and therefore breed earlier. Since in most birds the earliest breeders fledge the most young, this could favor the evolution of smaller female size, and therefore contribute to the magnitude of sexual size dimorphism in these birds. We tested this hypothesis in 1987 and 1988 by comparing the size and breeding date of female red-winged blackbirds. Consistent with our preditions, early-nesting females had much higher nesting success, but contrary to prediction, larger females bred earlier. We then examined the effects of female size on competition. If large females have an advantage in social competition, and if competition influences breeding date and reproductive success, then larger females might breed earlier. Primary females, the first females to arrive and nest on a territory, were more aggressive than lower ranked females; more aggressive females settled on better territories and laid earlier than less aggressive females; and larger females were more aggressive. Social competition between females may therefore favor large females. Finally, we tested the prediction that selection favoring large females might be limited by energetic constraints on large females. We found that large females had less fat than small females during breeding, and that the levels of fat that females of a given size carried affected breeding date and egg size. Therefore, social competition may favor large females, but reproductive energetics favoring smaller females may constrain selection for large female body size.     

Egg coloration and selection for crypsis in open-nesting blackbirds

High variation in egg coloration among birds has traditionally been explained as adaptation for camouflage. We tested this hypothesis by conducting reciprocal clutch exchanges (n=301) among Brewer's blackbirds Euphagous cyanocephalus , red-winged blackbirds Agelaius phoeniceus , and yellow-headed blackbirds Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus . We predicted that clutches placed against their natural nest backgrounds would have higher survival rates than heterospecific clutches. Intraspecific clutch exchanges were used as a control. Clutch survival was monitored for a 9-d period at all nests, during which time incubation rhythm and nest defense were quantified. Intraspecific clutch exchanges did not influence incubation or nest defense. For two of the species, intraspecific clutch exchanges did not influence clutch survival; in red-winged blackbirds, however, intraspecifically exchanged clutches had somewhat depressed survival curves relative to control clutches (P=0.08). The effect of interspecific clutch exchanges differed by host species. In Brewer's nests, eggs of the yellow-headed blackbird had lower survival than Brewer's eggs (P=0.02), but survival of red-winged blackbird eggs did not differ from Brewer's eggs (P=0.50). In nests of red-winged blackbirds, all three clutch types had approximately equal survival. In yellow-headed blackbird nests, eggs of the red-winged blackbird had lower survival than yellow-headed blackbird eggs (P=0.06), and survival of Brewer's eggs did not differ from yellow-headed blackbird eggs (P=0.31). These findings support a role for egg coloration as camouflage in two of the three species studied.     

Surviving north of the natural range: the importance of density independence in determining population size

The relative importance of density-dependent and -independent processes in determining population density has been predicted to vary according to whether the population concerned is located near the centre or the periphery of the species' range. Thus, density-independent processes should be more pronounced near the periphery. The long-tailed wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus in Iceland is at the northern and western edge of its geographical range. We estimated the autumn population density in an open habitat in south-western Iceland in 9 years out of 10 during 1996–2005 in order to monitor the annual maximum population size. Furthermore, we estimated population density and survival at c . 5-week intervals from September 2001 to October 2003 and from September 2004 to November 2005 in order to reveal the causes of variation in maximum population size. The estimated autumn population density was low, ranging from 2.7 to 8.9 mice ha⁻¹ while spring densities ranged from 0.4 to 0.8 mice ha⁻¹. Apparent monthly survival probabilities ranged from 0.4 to 0.7 per month in autumn and 0.7 to 0.9 in winter. Our results suggest that low temperature in early winter (October–December) is the major determinant of population density in the following autumn, explaining 74% of the variation in autumn population density. No significant correlation was found between either the NAO index or the NAO winter index and variation in wood mouse population density in autumn. Differential mortality in early winter results in variation in spring population size. This study shows clear evidence of density-independent control of a mammal population at the edge of its geographical range as opposed to the mostly density-dependent control previously recorded near its centre of distribution.     

The impact of climatic variation on the opportunity for sexual selection

Many studies have demonstrated influences of climatic variation on a variety of ecological processes, however, its impact on the potent evolutionary force of sexual selection has largely been ignored. The intensity of sexual selection is a fundamental parameter in animal populations, which depends upon the degree of polygamy and will probably be influenced by the impact of local climatic variation upon 'environmental potential for polygamy'. Here, we provide evidence of a direct effect of local climatic variation on the intensity of sexual selection, by showing a clear correlation between local weather conditions and inter-annual changes in the degree of polygamy in a long-term study of colonially breeding grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Our results show that changes in local weather conditions alter the annual proportion of males contributing to the effective population size (Ne) by up to 61%. Consequently, over the 'lifetime' of a cohort, a broader range of individuals will contribute genetically to the next generation if local weather conditions are variable. In the context of predicted future changes in climatic variation, these findings have broad implications for population genetics of socially structured animal systems through the major influence that the degree of polygamy has upon Ne.     

Inter-species variation in yolk steroid levels and a cowbird-host comparison

We examined variability in yolk hormone levels among songbird species and the role of yolk steroids as a mechanism for enhanced exploitation of hosts by the parasitic brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater . Within-clutch variation in yolk steroids has been found in several avian species in single species studies, but few comparisons have been made among species. We found a large range of differences in yolk testosterone among the seven passerine species examined, with significant differences between those at the high end (song sparrow Melospiza melodia , red-winged blackbird Agelaius phoeniceus , and house sparrow, Passer domesticus ) and those at the low end (eastern phoebe Sayornis phoebe , and house finch Carpodacus mexicanus ). We also found that the testosterone level in cowbird eggs was intermediate in relation to host species levels and was significantly lower than that in three common cowbird hosts (song sparrow, red-winged blackbird, and house sparrow), but not significantly different from three others. Geographical comparisons of yolk testosterone levels in all cowbird subspecies and populations from several regions showed no significant differences, though a trend that deserves further exploration was the pattern of lowest level in the ancestral population of cowbirds in the central prairies and of highest level in the northwestern population where range invasion occurred approximately 40 years ago. The levels of 17 beta-estradiol were similar in the seven songbird species examined, which is consistent with current hypotheses that this hormone plays a role in embryonic sexual differentiation. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the large differences observed among species in absolute level of yolk testosterone are the relevant focal point or whether target tissue sensitivity differences mediate the effects of this yolk steroid, particularly between parasitic and non-parasitic species.     

Polygyny and extrapair fertilizations in eastern red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus)

Parentage of nestling red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus)from an eastern population was determinedusing DNA fingerprintingtechniques. Of 235 nestlings surveyed, 58 had fingerprints excludingthemale, but none excluded the female tending the nest. Data onpairing status during the female's fertilizable period was availablefor 232 offspring; 55 (25%of 1988 nestlings, 23% of 1989 nestlings)of those were sired through extrapair copulations. Of these55 offspring, 33 could be assigned to nearby territory holders;16 of the remaining nestlings may have been sired by nearbymales that were not captured. During both years, 44% of territorialmales had more than one female nesting simultaneously on theirterritory. The number of extrapair fertilizations gained bymales increased significandy with harem size in 1 year. Paternity(die proportion of nesdings on the territory sired by die territoryholder) showed a positive but nonsignificant increase widi haremsize in bodi years. There was no apparent cost in paternityfor males guarding two or more fertilizable females at the sametime. The broods of females that were fertilizable at die sametime anodier female was setding on die same territory tendedto have a greater proportion of extrapair fertilizations (0.37)than did die broods of odier females within harems (0.15). Establishedfertilizable females were chased significantly more by die territoryowner and by extrapair males when a new female was setding.There were no associations between a male's paternity or successat gaining extrapair fertilizations and his age or color-bandcombination. Overall, extrapair fertilizations had litde effecton die relationship between fledgling success and harem sizeand appeared to have a minimal impact on die overall intensityof sexual selection on males.     

Local and large-scale climatic variables as predictors of the breeding numbers of endangered Lesser Black-backed Gulls on the Norwegian Coast

In the 1970s and 1980s, the nominate subspecies of the Lesser Black-backed Gull (Larus fuscus fuscus) showed a dramatic drop in breeding numbers on the Norwegian Coast, and in 2000, the population in some colonies was only 10–20% of the population in 1980. This decline has been attributed to the collapse in the stock of Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea harengus). In this study, we examined whether local climate (sea and air temperatures), winter NAO (North Atlantic Oscilliation), and the year-class strength and size of 0-group herring could predict the relative changes in breeding numbers between years, mainly after the population collapse. Breeding birds were counted in 19 of the years between 1980 and 2007 in an archipelago on the coast of Helgeland, northern Norway. The best model predicting changes in breeding numbers for the period between 1980 and 2005 (for which data on 0-group herring was available) included mean local air temperature in winter (January–March) and winter NAO, explaining 57% of the variation between years, while the other factors had little effect. When also adding the years 2006–2007 (no herring data), the best model included only mean air temperature in winter, explaining 41% of the variation. In conclusion, the high positive correlation between breeding numbers and climatic factors probably resulted from a higher availability of important fish prey after mild winters, for which 0-group herring presently may only account for a limited proportion. However, this prey might have been of much more importance prior to the population decline.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Divergent patterns of impact of environmental conditions on life history traits in two populations of a long-distance migratory bird

Some areas have experienced recent dramatic warming due to climate change, while others have shown no change at all, or even recent cooling. We predicted that patterns of selection on life history would differ between southern and northern European populations of a long-distance migratory bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, because global patterns of weather as reflected by large-scale weather phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have different effects on environmental conditions in different parts of the world frequented during the annual cycle. We investigated relationships between mean arrival date, dispersal rate and yearling survival rate among years, using two long-term population studies in Spain and Denmark. We found evidence of a difference in the effects of normalized difference vegetation index in North and West Africa on mean arrival date of male barn swallows, with the effect differing significantly between populations. Second, there was a significant interaction between ENSO and population on dispersal rate, showing that conditions in Africa during winter differentially affected dispersal in the two populations. Finally, the NAO index in winter had an effect on yearling survival that differed between populations. These findings highlight the divergent patterns of response to climate change among populations, and they suggest that climate change can differentially affect important life history traits with potential implications for maintenance of viable populations and gene flow among populations.     

No evidence of current sexual selection on sexually dimorphic traits in a bird with high variance in mating success

Sexual dimorphism, particularly in ornamental traits, is likely to have arisen by sexual selection. Most empirical and theoretical studies of sexual dimorphism assume that ongoing sexual selection also maintains the dimorphism. Over four seasons, I measured the sexual selection acting on three sexually dimorphic attributes (epaulet size, body size, and the blackness of the body plumage) of male red-winged blackbirds and found no consistent directional or stabilizing selection on any of them. Correlational selection was also negligible. I used path analysis to explore potential relationships in more detail but found no direct or indirect effects of male traits on either within- or extrapair success. Males who were resident on the marsh for more years had higher within-pair success, primarily because they spent more of the season on their territory. Experimental manipulations of epaulet size and color and the extent of nonblack feathers in the black body plumage had no detectable effect on the number of within-pair mates, paternity, or the number of extrapair offspring sired in nearby territories. These results combine with data from other studies of red-winged blackbirds to suggest that, despite high variation in male mating success and hence a strong opportunity for sexual selection, several morphological attributes that differ between the sexes and vary among males are not under current sexual selection. The possible explanations for why add complexity to our understanding of how sexual selection operates.