Primate population dynamics: variation in abundance over space and time

The rapid disappearance of tropical forests, the potential impacts of climate change, and the increasing threats of bushmeat hunting to wildlife, makes it imperative that we understand wildlife population dynamics. With long-lived animals this requires extensive, long-term data, but such data is often lacking. Here we present longitudinal data documenting changes in primate abundance over 45 years at eight sites in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Complex patterns of change in primate abundance were dependent on site, sampling year, and species, but all species, except blue monkeys, colonized regenerating forest, indicating that park-wide populations are increasing. At two paired sites, we found that while the primate populations in the regenerating forests had increased from nothing to a substantial size, there was little evidence of a decline in the source populations in old-growth forest, with the possible exception of mangabeys at one of the paired sites. Censuses conducted in logged forest since 1970 demonstrated that for all species, except black-and-white colobus, the encounter rate was higher in the old-growth and lightly-logged forest than in heavily-logged forest. Black-and-white colobus generally showed the opposite trend and were most common in the heavily-logged forest in all but the first year of monitoring after logging, when they were most common in the lightly-logged forest. Overall, except for blue monkey populations which are declining, primate populations in Kibale National Park are growing; in fact the endangered red colobus populations have an annual growth rate of 3%. These finding present a positive conservation message and indicate that the Uganda Wildlife Authority is being effective in managing its biodiversity; however, with constant poaching pressure and changes such as the exponential growth of elephant populations that could cause forest degradation, continued monitoring and modification of conservation plans are needed.     

Vegetation dynamics: patterns in time and space

This paper introduces the collection of contributions in this special volume on temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics. First, it is pointed out that the dynamics of any piece of vegetation, large or small, is always dependent on the degree of isolation of that piece towards its environment. Then ten types of island situation are treated ranging from very much to very little isolated: remote species-rich oceanic islands, remote species-poor islands, young big islands near a continent, small off-shore islands, emerging islands, isolated hills, landscape islands, isolated patches of vegetation, and gaps in stands of vegetation.Also, eight forms of vegetation dynamics are treated, ranging from short-term to long-term changes and involving larger and larger units: individuals, patches, communities, landscapes and vegetation regions. The forms of dynamics are fluctuation, gap dynamics, patch dynamics, cyclic succession, regeneration succession, secondary succession, primary succession, and secular succession. Each form of dynamics may occur under varying degrees of isolation.The general conclusion is that processes and patterns of vegetation dynamics cannot be generalized in any simple manner. The 20 papers collected in this volume, divergent as they are, express the complexity of vegetation dynamics.     

Niche dynamics in space and time

Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity.     

Disease in Zoanthids: dynamics in space and time

Numerous diseases in benthic marine organisms have been recognized over the last decade. Here, a new disease (pathogen unknown) is described and quantified in space and time for Palythoa caribaeorum (Cnidaria, Zoanthidea) populations on the São Paulo coast, Brazil (23° S). The degree of environmental stress (moderate vs. high), depth and temporal variation (seasons, years) on the frequency of the disease was assessed by monitoring plots at two sites: Ponta Recife (continent) and Praia Portinho (São Sebastião island), and at two depths per site (0.5–1.5 m and 2.5–4 m). The disease spread outward from within the colony in a circular pattern. A transverse section extending from normal to diseased tissue showed a progression from normal polyps to pale, swollen polyps, followed by remnant spicule-like structures, and finally fine black matter and bare substratum in the middle of the lesion. The disease occurred in one or more portions of the colony simultaneously. Disease frequency and total area infected increased significantly with colony size. Generally, the disease affected 5% of the total colony area, and occurred when gonad development was maximal. Therefore, 20.5% (n = 306), and 14.6% (n = 578) of the population was infected in two consecutive years, respectively. Disease exhibited higher rates during summer (tourist season) and fall, and decreased significantly in the winter with the presence of cool water. Factors associated with the increased instance of disease during the summer were higher temperatures, precipitation and sewage; the opposite was noted in the winter. Disease frequency varied significantly between years, seasons, sites and depths. Colonies exhibited higher disease frequency in Ponta Recife characterized by high levels of sedimentation, increased turbidity and low levels of incident light with respect to Praia Portinho. Colonies in shallow water exhibited greater frequency of disease compared to those in deeper water. Physiological stress, low energy input, energy expenditure and energy re-allocation may increase the susceptibility of P. caribaeorum colonies to disease. It is suggested that this disease may play an important role in the life history of P. caribaeorumbecause of its influence on partial mortality, colony area, population size structure, reproduction and ultimately fitness. This represents the first report of disease-related mortality in reef zoanthids of the Southwestern Atlantic.     

Cell-signalling dynamics in time and space

The specificity of cellular responses to receptor stimulation is encoded by the spatial and temporal dynamics of downstream signalling networks. Temporal dynamics are coupled to spatial gradients of signalling activities, which guide pivotal intracellular processes and tightly regulate signal propagation across a cell. Computational models provide insights into the complex relationships between the stimuli and the cellular responses, and reveal the mechanisms that are responsible for signal amplification, noise reduction and generation of discontinuous bistable dynamics or oscillations.     

Inbreeding effects on pair fecundity and population persistence

Despite strong empirical evidence of the harmful effects of inbreeding on fecundity, spontaneous recessive deleterious mutations are generally considered as acting on survival only in evolutionary models and population viability analyses. In this study, we modelled a species with separate sexes to assess the effect of selection on fecundity in small populations on the risk of extinction. We showed that the impact of inbreeding on short-term fitness changes and that population dynamics are strongly influenced by phenotypic interactions among males and females during reproduction. In particular, population persistence was found to be highly sensitive to the level at which selection acts (i.e. individual vs. pair) and to asymmetry among sexes (in terms of mutation rates and mutational effects).  © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2005, 86 , 467–476.     

Sea lice and salmon population dynamics: effects of exposure time for migratory fish

The ecological impact of parasite transmission from fish farms is probably mediated by the migration of wild fishes, which determines the period of exposure to parasites. For Pacific salmon and the parasitic sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, analysis of the exposure period may resolve conflicting observations of epizootic mortality in field studies and parasite rejection in experiments. This is because exposure periods can differ by 2–3 orders of magnitude, ranging from months in the field to hours in experiments. We developed a mathematical model of salmon–louse population dynamics, parametrized by a study that monitored naturally infected juvenile salmon held in ocean enclosures. Analysis of replicated trials indicates that lice suffer high mortality, particularly during pre-adult stages. The model suggests louse populations rapidly decline following brief exposure of juvenile salmon, similar to laboratory study designs and data. However, when the exposure period lasts for several weeks, as occurs when juvenile salmon migrate past salmon farms, the model predicts that lice accumulate to abundances that can elevate salmon mortality and depress salmon populations. The duration of parasite exposure is probably critical to salmon–louse population dynamics, and should therefore be accommodated in coastal planning and management where fish farms are situated on wild fish migration routes.     

Small population effects in stochastic population dynamics

The discreteness of units of small populations can produce large fluctuations from a classical continuous representation, especially when null populations play a crucial role. These belong to what are here referred to as emergent and evanescent species. A few model biological systems are introduced in which this is the case, as well as a toy model that suggests a path to avoid the associated mathematical complexities. The corresponding division into null and non-null population sectors is carried out to leading order for the model systems, with promising results. Supported in part by DOE Office of Basic Science, Chemical Division. Reported at SMB03, the August 2003 meeting of the Society for Mathematical Biology.     

Signalling in space and time: systems dynamics of intracellular communication

The second edition of the EMBO Spatial meeting took place in May 2011 in Engelberg, Switzerland. Although the work presented at the meeting covered a challengingly broad range of topics, it accomplished the rare goal of promoting interactions between cell biologists, neuroscientists, systems biologists and mathematicians, all united by a common interest in understanding how cells integrate signals in space and time.     

The effects of space flight during gestation on rat uterine smooth muscle

Pregnant rats were flown on a NASA space shuttle during days 11-20 of gestation and the effects of pregnancy maintenance and uterine myometrial smooth muscle were evaluated. There was no effect of space flight on fetal mass in rats examined at recovery on day 20 of gestation (G-20). Rats allowed to go to term delivered vaginally at days 22-23, but space flight significantly decreased pup mass at birth. Space flight did not alter myometrial smooth muscle volume at G-20 and postpartum when compared to flight delayed synchronous controls, but flight animals showed a 37% decrease in myometrial smooth muscle volume between G-20 and postpartum. In contrast, smooth muscle volume of the myometrium of controls, postpartum, was similar to G-20. We conclude that myometrial smooth muscle, which hypertrophies during space flight similar to controls, reacclimates acutely to earth's gravity between G-20 and parturition with a dramatic reduction in volume.     

On the importance of dimensionality of space in models of space-mediated population persistence

Spatially explicit models have become widely used in today's mathematical ecology to study persistence of populations. For the sake of simplicity, population dynamics is often analyzed with 1-D models. An important question is: how adequate is such 1-D simplification of 2-D (or 3-D) dynamics for predicting species persistence. Here we show that dimensionality of the environment can play a critical role in the persistence of predator-prey interactions. We consider 1-D and 2-D dynamics of a predator-prey model with the prey growth damped by the Allee effect. We show that adding a second space coordinate into the 1-D model results in a pronounced increase of size of the domain in the parametric space where predator-prey coexistence becomes possible. This result is due to the possibility of formation of a number of 2-D patterns, which is impossible in the 1-D model. The 1-D and the 2-D models exhibit different qualitative responses to variations of system parameters. We show that in ecosystems having a narrow width (e.g. mountain valleys, vegetation patterns along canals in dry areas, etc.), extinction of species is more probable compared to ecosystems having a pronounced second dimension. In particular, the width of a long narrow natural reserve should be large enough to guarantee nonextinction of species via interaction of 2-D population patches.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics in mountain grasslands: Species autocorrelations in space and time

Permanent plots with a fine scale recording system were used to trace the spatiotemporal process within two mountain grasslands in the Krkono?e Mts., Czech Republic. The analysis used autocorrelation over increasing lags in space and/or time. Moran'sI was used to measure the autocorrelation. There was a lot of variation between species both in spatial and temporal correlograms. The spatiotemporal pattern of species correlated well with the growth form of the species and the degree of its clonality. Clonally-growing species tended to have high clumping at distances of a few cells, whereas rosette species often did not show any clumping. The type of clonal growth (compact vs. long spacers) is well corrlated, with the temporal correlogram (species mobility). There is a relation between low mobility and high clumping at low distances. Attempts to explain the mechanisms of species coexistence in these grasslands should take into account the particular structure of the fine-scale dynamics of these communities of predominantly clonal plants. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A02DO006 00007     

The effects of global warming on Daphnia spp. population dynamics: a review

Various species of Daphnia usually play a key role in the food web of temperate freshwater systems. There is much evidence to show that climate change may influence Daphnia population dynamics, consequently altering both predator–prey interactions and the efficiency of algal biomass control in these ecosystems. This review will analyse and discuss the current knowledge on Daphnia responses to climate warming based on an analysis of selected papers. The presented results indicate that warming may have important direct and indirect effects on Daphnia biology and ecology via its influence on their life-history processes (metabolism, growth, reproduction) and the properties of their habitats. The plasticity of daphnids in terms of adaptive responses is generally high and includes phenotypic adaptations and changes in genotypes, although it also depends upon the strength of selection and the available genetic variation. The seasonal timing and magnitude of temperature increases are important for seasonal biomass fluctuations of Daphnia and similarly influence the potential synchrony of daphnids and phytoplankton succession (the timing hypothesis). In light of the most recent studies on this topic, even a minor warming during short but critical seasonal periods can cause factors that disturb Daphnia population dynamics to coincide, which may destabilize lake food webs by decoupling trophic interactions. Both winter and spring are important critical periods for determining future seasonal fluxes of Daphnia spp. and, consequently, the time of the clear-water phase and the occurrence and duration of Daphnia midsummer decline. Winter conditions may also affect the impact of fish predation on daphnids during summer months. However, the effects of global warming on Daphnia population dynamics and on ecosystem functioning are often difficult to predict due to their complexity and the presence of both antagonistic and synergistic drivers. Thus, the diverse responses of daphnids to climate anomalies depend on both biotic (predator abundance and seasonal phytoplankton succession) and abiotic factors (e.g. hydrodynamics, intensity and duration of thermal stratification, trophic state or geomorphology) of lakes, which are directly influenced by weather changes. The analysis and quantification of such complex interactions require the involvement of different kinds of specialists and the development of accurate research approaches, such as molecular genetic methods or mathematical modelling.     

Effects on population persistence: the interaction between environmental noise colour,intraspecific competition and space

It is accepted that accurate estimation of risk of population extinction, or persistence time, requires prediction of the effect of fluctuations in the environment on population dynamics. Generally, the greater the magnitude, or variance, of environmental stochasticity, the greater the risk of population extinction. Another characteristic of environmental stochasticity, its colour, has been found to affect population persistence. This is important because real environmental variables, such as temperature, are reddened or positively temporally autocorrelated. However, recent work has disagreed about the effect of reddening environmental stochasticity. Ripa and Lundberg (1996) found increasing temporal autocorrelation (reddening) decreased the risk of extinction, whereas a simple and powerful intuitive argument (Lawton 1988) predicts increased risk of extinction with reddening. This study resolves the apparent contradiction, in two ways, first, by altering the dynamic behaviour of the population models. Overcompensatory dynamics result in persistence times increasing with increased temporal autocorrelation; undercompensatory dynamics result in persistence times decreasing with increased temporal autocorrelation. Secondly, in a spatially subdivided population, with a reasonable degree of spatial heterogeneity in patch quality, increasing temporal autocorrelation in the environment results in decreasing persistence time for both types of competition. Thus, the inclusion of coloured noise into ecological models can have subtle interactions with population dynamics.     

On mathematical theory of selection: continuous time population dynamics

Mathematical theory of selection is developed within the frameworks of general models of inhomogeneous populations with continuous time. Methods that allow us to study the distribution dynamics under natural selection and to construct explicit solutions of the models are developed. All statistical characteristics of interest, such as the mean values of the fitness or any trait can be computed effectively, and the results depend in a crucial way on the initial distribution. The developed theory provides an effective method for solving selection systems; it reduces the initial complex model to a special system of ordinary differential equations (the escort system). Applications of the method to the Price equations are given; the solutions of some particular inhomogeneous Malthusian, Ricker and logistic-like models used but not solved in the literature are derived in explicit form.     

On moment closures for population dynamics in continuous space

A first-order moment closure, the mean-field assumption that organisms encounter one another in proportion to their spatial average densities, lies at the heart of much theoretical ecology. This assumption ignores all spatial information and, at the very least, needs to be replaced by a second-order closure to gain understanding of ecological dynamics in spatially structured populations. We describe a number of conditions that a second-order closure should satisfy and use these conditions to evaluate some closures currently available in the literature. Two conditions are particularly helpful in discriminating among the alternatives: that the closure should be positive, and that the dynamics should be unaltered when identical individuals are given different labels. On this basis, a class of closures we refer to as 'power-2' turns out to provide a good compromise between positivity and dynamical invariance under relabelling.