The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity

A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long‐distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg‐laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long‐distance migrants, short‐distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long‐term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline.     

Acquisition of obligate mutualist symbionts during the larval stage is not beneficial for a coral host

Theory suggests that the direct transmission of beneficial endosymbionts (mutualists) from parents to offspring (vertical transmission) in animal hosts is advantageous and evolutionarily stable, yet many host species instead acquire their symbionts from the environment (horizontal acquisition). An outstanding question in marine biology is why some scleractinian corals do not provision their eggs and larvae with the endosymbiotic dinoflagellates that are necessary for a juvenile's ultimate survival. We tested whether the acquisition of photosynthetic endosymbionts (family Symbiodiniaceae) during the planktonic larval stage was advantageous, as is widely assumed, in the ecologically important and threatened Caribbean reef‐building coral Orbicella faveolata. Following larval acquisition, similar changes occurred in host energetic lipid use and gene expression regardless of whether their symbionts were photosynthesizing, suggesting the symbionts did not provide the energetic benefit characteristic of the mutualism in adults. Larvae that acquired photosymbionts isolated from conspecific adults on their natal reef exhibited a reduction in swimming, which may interfere with their ability to find suitable settlement substrate, and also a decrease in survival. Larvae exposed to two cultured algal species did not exhibit differences in survival, but decreased their swimming activity in response to one species. We conclude that acquiring photosymbionts during the larval stage confers no advantages and can in fact be disadvantageous to this coral host. The timing of symbiont acquisition appears to be a critical component of a host's life history strategy and overall reproductive fitness, and this timing itself appears to be under selective pressure.     

Assessing the sensitivity of Melanoplus frigidus (Orthoptera: Acrididae) to different weather conditions: A modeling approach focussing on development times

The temperature and soil moisture conditions as well as vegetation patterns were studied to describe the habitat and to model the life cycle of Melanoplus frigidus, a true alpine grasshopper of the Scandes. In the low alpine belt of the Norwegian Scandes the species colonizes only the warmest microhabitats with maximum soil surface temperatures of 31°C. Vegetation of these habitats consists of shrub‐rich heath dominated by Vaccinium myrtillus and Calluna vulgaris. Using continuously measured temperature data, the development times for four different seasons were modeled and related to field observations. The maximum delay of adult molt was estimated to amount to 3 weeks, the delay being determined by the variation in spring temperature conditions between different years. The possibilities of using M. frigidus as an indicator organism of climate change effects on alpine zoo‐coenoses of the Scandes are discussed.     

Avian responses to extreme weather across functional traits and temporal scales

Extreme weather, including heat waves, droughts, and high rainfall, is becoming more common and affecting a diversity of species and taxa. However, researchers lack a framework that can anticipate how diverse species will respond to weather extremes spanning weeks to months. Here we used high‐resolution occurrence data from eBird, a global citizen science initiative, and dynamic species distribution models to examine how 109 North American bird species ranging in migration distance, diet, body size, habitat preference, and prevalence (commonness) respond to extreme heat, drought, and rainfall across a wide range of temporal scales. Across species, temperature influenced species’ distributions more than precipitation at weekly and monthly scales, while precipitation was more important at seasonal scales. Phylogenetically controlled multivariate models revealed that migration distance was the most important factor mediating responses to extremely hot or dry weeks; residents and short‐distance migrants occurred less often following extreme heat. At monthly or seasonal scales, less common birds experienced decreases in occurrence following drought‐like conditions, while widespread species were unaffected. Spatial predictions demonstrated variation in responses to extreme weather across species’ ranges, with predicted decreases in occurrence up to 40% in parts of ranges. Our results highlight that extreme weather has variable and potentially strong implications for birds at different time scales, but these responses are mediated by life‐history characteristics. As weather once considered extreme occurs more frequently, researchers and managers require a better understanding of how diverse species respond to extreme conditions.     

Climatic change is advancing the phenology of moth species in Ireland

Recent increases in global temperatures have contributed to advancing phenology of plants and animals. These increases in temperature have been shown to affect the phenological phases (phenophases) of plants and birds in Ireland, but less is known about the effect on the phenophases of Irish insects. Records of the flight periods of 59 species of Irish moths over the past 35 years (1974–2009) were obtained from a public monitoring group. Observations were analysed across the country using generalized additive models (GAMs) weighted by total yearly population numbers for each species. The results of the statistical analyses showed that 45 of the 59 species studied have a significantly earlier first sighting date now than when observations began. With this earlier emergence, 44 of the 59 species also have a significantly longer flight season over the same 35‐year period. The extent of these changes varies across the country and by species life history. In particular, species emerging in spring are advancing at a much faster rate than species emerging during the summer. Many of these changes in first sighting are negatively correlated with rising temperatures in Ireland, particularly in late spring and early summer (May and June). The variation in phenological advancement in the moth species of Ireland is extremely complex and may be influenced more by species life history than by the phenology of interacting species, such as host plants.     

Increased activity and growth rate in the non‐dispersive aquatic larval stage of a damselfly at an expanding range edge

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Mycorrhizal fungal abundance is affected by long-term climatic manipulations in the field

Climate change treatments – winter warming, summer drought and increased summer precipitation – have been imposed on an upland grassland continuously for 7 years. The vegetation was surveyed yearly. In the seventh year, soil samples were collected on four occasions through the growing season in order to assess mycorrhizal fungal abundance. Mycorrhizal fungal colonisation of roots and extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal (EMH) density in the soil were both affected by the climatic manipulations, especially by summer drought. Both winter warming and summer drought increased the proportion of root length colonised (RLC) and decreased the density of external mycorrhizal hyphal. Much of the response of mycorrhizal fungi to climate change could be attributed to climate‐induced changes in the vegetation, especially plant species relative abundance. However, it is possible that some of the mycorrhizal response to the climatic manipulations was direct – for example, the response of the EMH density to the drought treatment. Future work should address the likely change in mycorrhizal functioning under warmer and drier conditions.     

Using community photography to investigate phenology: A case study of coat molt in the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) with missing data

Participatory approaches, such as community photography, can engage the public in questions of societal and scientific interest while helping advance understanding of ecological patterns and processes. We combined data extracted from community‐sourced, spatially explicit photographs with research findings from 2018 fieldwork in the Yukon, Canada, to evaluate winter coat molt patterns and phenology in mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), a cold‐adapted, alpine mammal. Leveraging the community science portals iNaturalist and CitSci, in less than a year we amassed a database of almost seven hundred unique photographs spanning some 4,500 km between latitudes 37.6°N and 61.1°N from 0 to 4,333 m elevation. Using statistical methods accounting for incomplete data, a common issue in community science datasets, we identified the effects of intrinsic (sex and presence of offspring) and broad environmental (latitude and elevation) factors on molt onset and rate and compared our findings with published data. Shedding occurred over a 3‐month period between 29 May and 6 September. Effects of sex and offspring on the timing of molt were consistent between the community‐sourced and our Yukon data and with findings on wild mountain goats at a long‐term research site in west‐central Alberta, Canada. Males molted first, followed by females without offspring (4.4 days later in the coarse‐grained, geographically wide community science sample; 29.2 days later in our fine‐grained Yukon sample) and lastly females with new kids (6.2; 21.2 days later, respectively). Shedding was later at higher elevations and faster at northern latitudes. Our findings establish a basis for employing community photography to examine broad‐scale questions about the timing of ecological events, as well as sex differences in response to possible climate drivers. In addition, community photography can help inspire public participation in environmental and outdoor activities specifically with reference to iconic wildlife.     

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time‐series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life‐history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time‐series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.     

Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables such as rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve‐year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800 mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were associated with significantly higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data are needed to see whether this pattern is consistent. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, the linkages between variable precipitation and the fruiting phenology of forest trees will have important consequences for understanding plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar's wildlife to cope with a changing climate.     

'Back to the future': how archaeological remains can describe salmon adaptation to climate change

A strategy for species to survive climate change will be to change adaptively their way of life. Understanding rapid adaptation to climate change is therefore a priority for current research. In this issue, Turrero et al. (2012) use an original approach to unravel life history trait responses to climate change in two fish species (Salmo trutta and S. salar). Going against the flow, the authors adopt the strategy of going back to the future by investigating the responses of fish to the warming periods that followed the Last Glacial Period (approximately 30-20,000 years BP). To do this, they analysed Salmo vertebrae from well-dated archaeological sites in northern Spain in order to uncover key life history traits, which they then compared to those of contemporary specimens. They found that, as the climate got warmer, Salmo species tended to reduce the time spent in growing areas and reached spawning areas at a younger age; this tendency began approximately 15,000 years BP and accelerated in contemporary periods. The implication is a lower age at maturity and a lower reproductive success, which they tentatively related to recent declines in population growth rate. This innovative study demonstrates how changes in life history traits are linked both to the population growth rate and to the evolutionary rate under climatic constraints, which may serve as a basis for future conservation research.     

Zooplankton species composition is linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current

In the Northern California Current (NCC), zooplankton communities show interannual and multiyear shifts in species dominance that are tracked by survival of salmon populations. These zooplankton community changes correlate with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index: a ‘warm‐water’ copepod species group is more abundant during warm (positive) phases of the PDO and less abundant during cold (negative) phases; the reverse occurs for a ‘cold‐water’ species group. The observed relationship led to the hypothesis that the relative dominance of warm/cold‐water copepods in the NCC is driven by changes in the horizontal advection of surface water over different phases of the PDO. To test this hypothesis, variation in surface water advection to coastal regions of the NCC over the period of 1950–2008 was investigated using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and passive tracer experiments, then was compared with zooplankton collected off Oregon since 1996. Results showed that surface water advection varied with the phase of the PDO; the low‐frequency component of advection anomalies strongly correlated with copepod species composition (R>0.9). During positive phases of the PDO, current anomalies were northward and onshore, resulting in transport of warmer waters and the associated copepods into the region. During negatives phases, increased equatorward current anomalies led to a copepod community that was dominated by cold‐water taxa. Our results support the hypothesis that climate‐driven changes in basin‐scale circulation controls copepod community composition in the NCC, and demonstrate that large‐scale climate forcings downscale to influence local and regional ecosystem structure.     

Generalists are the most urban‐tolerant of birds: a phylogenetically controlled analysis of ecological and life history traits using a novel continuous measure of bird responses to urbanization

Identifying which ecological and life history traits influence a species’ tolerance to urbanization is critical to understanding the trajectory of biodiversity in an increasingly urbanizing world. There is evidence for a wide array of contrasting patterns for single trait associations with urbanization. In a continental‐scale analysis, incorporating 477 species and >5 000 000 bird observations, we developed a novel and scalable methodology that evaluated the ecological and life history traits which most influence a species’ adaptability to persist in urban environments. Specifically, we assigned species‐specific scores based on continuous measures of response to urbanization, using VIIRS night‐time light values (i.e. radiance) as a proxy for urbanization. We identified generalized, phylogenetically controlled patterns: bird species which are generalists (i.e. large niche breadth), with large clutch size, and large residual brain size are among the most urban‐tolerant bird species. Conversely, specialized feeding strategies (i.e. insectivores and granivores) were negatively associated with urbanization. Enhancement and persistence of avian biodiversity in urban environments probably relies on protecting, maintaining and restoring diverse habitats serving a range of life history strategies.     

Thermal Buffering of Microhabitats is a Critical Factor Mediating Warming Vulnerability of Frogs in the Philippine Biodiversity Hotspot

Species may circumvent the impacts of climate warming if the habitats they use reduce ambient temperature. In this study, we identified which frog species from a tropical montane rain forest in the Philippines may be vulnerable to climate warming. To do so, we selected five anuran species that utilize four breeding habitats and identified the sensitivity and exposure of tadpoles and direct‐developer eggs to heat by measuring their critical thermal maximums (CT_max) and the habitat‐specific temperatures they experience. Our study species included two direct‐developer frogs—one species that lays its eggs on exposed leaves, and another that lays its eggs in ferns—and three species that produce aquatic free‐swimming tadpoles—two stream breeders, and one phytotelm (tree hole) breeder. We compared thermal tolerances derived from microclimates of breeding habitats with tolerances derived from macroclimate (i.e., non‐buffered air temperature taken from the rain forest canopy). We also examined whether differences in CT_max existed across life‐history stages (egg, metamorph/young‐of‐year, and adult) for the two direct‐developer frog species. Habitats buffered ambient temperature and expanded thermal tolerances of all frog species. We found that direct‐developers, however, are more vulnerable to increased temperatures than aquatic breeders—indicated by their high sensitivity to temperature, and exposure to high temperatures. Direct‐developer eggs were more sensitive to warming than both metamorph and adult life‐history stages. Thermally buffered microhabitats may represent the only protection against current and impending climate warming. Our data highlight the importance of considering sensitivity and exposure in unison when deciphering warming vulnerability of frogs.     

Ectomycorrhizal fungal response to warming is linked to poor host performance at the boreal‐temperate ecotone

Rising temperatures associated with climate change have been shown to negatively affect the photosynthetic rates of boreal forest tree saplings at their southern range limits. To quantify the responses of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal communities associated with poorly performing hosts, we sampled the roots of Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea saplings growing in the B4Warmed (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment. EM fungi on the root systems of both hosts were compared from ambient and +3.4 °C air and soil warmed plots at two sites in northern Minnesota. EM fungal communities were assessed with high‐throughput sequencing along with measures of plant photosynthesis, soil temperature, moisture, and nitrogen. Warming selectively altered EM fungal community composition at both the phylum and genus levels, but had no significant effect on EM fungal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) diversity. Notably, warming strongly favored EM Ascomycetes and EM fungi with short‐contact hyphal exploration types. Declining host photosynthetic rates were also significantly inversely correlated with EM Ascomycete and EM short‐contact exploration type abundance, which may reflect a shift to less carbon demanding fungi due to lower photosynthetic capacity. Given the variation in EM host responses to warming, both within and between ecosystems, better understanding the link between host performance and EM fungal community structure will to clarify how climate change effects cascade belowground.     

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena—from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes—have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.     

Integrating multiple data sources to assess the distribution and abundance of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Scottish waters

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