Climate‐driven vital rates do not always mean climate‐driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate‐driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual‐based data on a trans‐equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large‐scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i, estimated using local climate‐driven parameters with ρ_i, a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate‐dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate‐driven projections.     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.     

Climatic stability and genetic divergence in the tropical insular lizard Anolis krugi,the Puerto Rican ‘Lagartijo Jardinero de la Montaña’

Two factors that can lead to geographic structuring in conspecific populations are barriers to dispersal and climatic stability. Populations that occur in different physiographic regions may be restricted to those areas by physical and/or ecological barriers, which may facilitate the formation of phylogeographic clades. Long‐term climatic stability can also promote genetic diversification, because new clades are more likely to evolve in areas that experience lesser climatic shifts. We conducted a phylogeographic study of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis krugi to assess whether populations of this anole show genetic discontinuities across the species’ range, and if they do, whether these breaks coincide with the boundaries of the five physiographic regions of Puerto Rico. We also assessed whether interpopulation genetic distances in A. krugi are positively correlated with relative climatic stability in the island. Anolis krugi exhibits genetic structuring, but the phylogroups do not correspond to the physiographic regions of Puerto Rico. We used climatic reconstructions of two environmental extremes of the Quaternary period, the present conditions and those during the last glacial maximum (LGM), to quantify the degree of climatic stability between sampling locations. We documented positive correlations between genetic distances and relative climatic stability, although these associations were not significant when corrected for autocorrelation. Principal component analyses indicated the existence of climatic niche differences between some phylogeographic clades of A. krugi. The approach that we employed to assess the relationship between climatic stability and the genetic architecture of A. krugi can also be used to investigate the impact of factors such as the spatial distribution of food sources, parasites, predators or competitors on the genetic landscape of a species.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子(附表)

兰属(Cymbidium)中，除了兔耳兰C.lancifolium以外的所有种均被列为国家重点保护野生植物。为探究其在未来气候条件下的潜在分布格局，该研究基于兰属植物已知的分布点和19个气候因子，利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)模拟兰属以及其中20种兰属植物在9种不同气候情景(当代以及未来2030s、2050s、2070s和2090s 4个时间段各两种温室气体排放情景)下的潜在分布格局。结果表明：(1)最干旱季降水量(Bio17)、年降水量(Bio12)和温度季节性变化(Bio4)是影响兰属植物地理分布格局的主导气候因子。(2)不同兰属植物在未来情景下的适生区表现出不同的变化趋势，并且影响其分布的主导气候因子也有所不同。其中，冬凤兰(C.dayanum)等8个物种的适生区面积整体呈扩张趋势，而西藏虎头兰(C.tracyanum)等12个物种的适生区面积整体则呈缩减趋势。该研究结果为兰属植物就地保护与迁地保护提供了重要参考，对兰属等濒危野生植物的保护具有积极意义。     

The influence of climate on morphometric traits of fossil populations of Microtus arvalis and M. agrestis from the Carpathian Basin,northern Hungary

In this study, we analysed morphometrically fossil populations of Microtus arvalis and M. agrestis from eight late Middle to Late Pleistocene archaeological and palaeontological sites in the Carpathian Basin, northern Hungary. The intra‐ and interspecific variations in both species can be related to climatic oscillations linked to the onset of the Eemian interglacial and the first phases of Marine Isotope Stage 5. The size of M. agrestis can be correlated with the presence/absence of relatively humid climatic and environmental conditions and of surface water resources (such as marshes and flooded areas). A possible immigration event of M. arvalis populations into the Carpathian Basin, also related to the Eemian interglacial, is also identified.     

Integrating climate and landscape models to prioritize areas and conservation strategies for an endangered arboreal primate

Species distributions are influenced by both climate conditions and landscape structure. Here we propose an integrated analysis of climatic and landscape niche-based models for a forest-dependent primate, the endangered black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus). We applied both climate and landscape variables to predict the distribution of this tamarin and used this information to prioritize strategic areas more accurately. We anticipated that this approach would be beneficial for the selection of pertinent conservation strategies for this flagship species. First, we built climate and landscape niche-based models separately, combining seven algorithms, to infer processes acting on the species distribution at different scales. Subsequently, we combined climate and landscape models using the EcoLand Analysis. Our results suggest that historic and current landscape fragmentation and modification had profoundly adverse effects on the distribution of the black lion tamarins. The models indicated just 2096 km² (out of an original distribution of 92,239 km²) of suitable areas for both climate and landscape. Of this suitable area, the species is currently present in less than 40%, which represents less than 1% of its original distribution. Based on the combined map, we determined the western and southeast regions of the species range to be priority areas for its conservation. We identified areas with high climatic and high landscape suitability, which overlap with the remaining forest fragments in both regions, for habitat conservation and population management. We suggest that areas with high climatic but low landscape suitability should be prioritized for habitat management and restoration. Areas with high landscape suitability and low climatic suitability, such as the Paranapiacaba mountain range should be considered in light of projected climate change scenarios. Our case study illustrates that a combined approach of climatic and landscape niche-based modeling can be useful for establishing focused conservation measures that may increase the likelihood of success.     

Contrasting Climatic Controls on the Estimated Productivity of Global Terrestrial Biomes

Net primary productivity (NPP) represents the greatest annual carbon flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere, is an important component of seasonal fluctuations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and is the most critical biotic component of the global carbon cycle. NPP measures products of major economic and social importance, such as crop yield and forest production. Given that global NPP can not be measured directly, model simulations must provide understanding of its global spatial and temporal dynamics. In this study, we used the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to simulate global terrestrial NPP and assessed relative importance of climatic controls (temperature, water availability, and radiation) in limiting NPP in the array of climatic combinations found globally. The degree of limitation on NPP by climatic controls was defined by using an empirical membership function. Results showed that temperature or water availability limited NPP over larger land areas (31% and 52%, respectively) than did radiation limitation (5%). Climatic controls appeared to be important in limiting productivity in most vegetation biomes, except for evergreen broadleaf forests. Nevertheless, there were areas of the globe (12%) where none of the climatic factors appeared to limit NPP. Our research has suggested that other environmental controls, such as nutrient availability or biological constraints, should then be considered. The wide distribution of NPP between zero and the upper boundary values in the correlation plots indicated that multivariate environmental balances, not single limiting factors, controlled biospheric productivity. Received 27 August 1997; accepted 19 November 1997.     

An ecoclimatic framework for evaluating the resilience of vegetation to water deficit

The surge in global efforts to understand the causes and consequences of drought on forest ecosystems has tended to focus on specific impacts such as mortality. We propose an ecoclimatic framework that takes a broader view of the ecological relevance of water deficits, linking elements of exposure and resilience to cumulative impacts on a range of ecosystem processes. This ecoclimatic framework is underpinned by two hypotheses: (i) exposure to water deficit can be represented probabilistically and used to estimate exposure thresholds across different vegetation types or ecosystems; and (ii) the cumulative impact of a series of water deficit events is defined by attributes governing the resistance and recovery of the affected processes. We present case studies comprising Pinus edulis and Eucalyptus globulus, tree species with contrasting ecological strategies, which demonstrate how links between exposure and resilience can be examined within our proposed framework. These examples reveal how climatic thresholds can be defined along a continuum of vegetation functional responses to water deficit regimes. The strength of this framework lies in identifying climatic thresholds on vegetation function in the absence of more complete mechanistic understanding, thereby guiding the formulation, application and benchmarking of more detailed modelling.     

Effects of simulated heat waves on an experimental plant–herbivore–predator food chain

Greater climatic variability and extreme climatic events are currently emerging as two of the most important facets of climate change. Predicting the effects of extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, is a major challenge because they may affect both organisms and trophic interactions, leading to complex responses at the community level. In this study, we set up a simple three‐level food chain composed of a sweet pepper plant, Capsicum annuum; an aphid, Myzus persicae; and a ladybeetle, Coleomegilla maculata, to explore the consequences of simulated heat waves on organism performance, trophic interactions, and population dynamics. We found that (1) heat waves do not affect plant biomass, significantly reduce the abundance and fecundity of aphids, and slightly affect ladybeetle developmental time and biomass, (2) heat waves decrease the impact of ladybeetles on aphid populations but do not modify the effect of aphids on plant biomass, and (3) food chains including predatory ladybeetles are more resistant to heat waves than a simple plant–aphid association, with aphid abundance being less influenced by heat waves in the presence of C. maculata. Our results suggest that more biodiverse ecosystems with predators exerting a strong biotic control are likely to be less influenced by abiotic factors and then more resistant to extreme climatic events than impoverished ecosystems lacking predators. Our study emphasizes the importance of assessing the effects of climatic change on each trophic level as well as on trophic interactions to further our understanding of the stability, resilience, and resistance of ecological communities under climatic forcing.     

Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Detecting human impact in the pollen record using data-model comparison

Palaeoecological data are compared with output from climate-driven forest simulation models to separate human influence as a driver of vegetation dynamics from other drivers such as climatic change. The transition from Tilia cordata to Fagus sylvatica dominance in a small forest hollow in Denmark was not predicted by a climate-driven forest simulation model and could be ascribed to anthropogenic impact. This transition can be upscaled to a large region of north-west Europe and contributes to a data-model mismatch for the European distribution of Fagus 6,000 years ago. A data-model mismatch for Picea abies during the last few centuries in southern Scandinavia can also be attributed to anthropogenic impact. Combining pollen data and vegetation models can help with the important task of upscaling from the scale of the forest stand, where anthropogenic impact is readily detectable, to regions and continents, where it is more challenging to distinguish anthropogenic impact from the impacts of climatic change.     

Assessing Tropical Forests' Climatic Sensitivities with Long‐term Data

Analyses relating long‐term records of tree growth to interannual climatic variation at La Selva, Costa Rica have revealed marked forest sensitivities to both temperature and dry‐season intensity ( Clark et al. 2010 ). The tropical‐forest biome is certain to become warmer, and many areas may become drier. Testing the generality of the La Selva findings with similar analyses of field data from diverse forests across the biome will be a valuable next step. Based on our experiences during the La Selva studies, we propose that such assessments will need to address three issues. One is the number of repeat forest measurements. Short series of re‐censuses can be an unreliable basis for assessing climatic sensitivities. For some key climatic factors (e.g., temperature), records consisting of fewer than 10–12 re‐censuses can span limited climatic ranges, producing erratic and largely nonsignificant correlations. Multiyear census intervals exacerbate these data limitations. Second, different types of forest‐growth data call for different analysis approaches. Cohort and tree‐ring records need to be adjusted for ontogenetic growth changes, while stand‐level data require taking into account potentially confounding influences from forest compositional changes, as from succession. Third, a reliable meteorological record is critical. Poor‐quality or internally inconsistent climatic records can fatally corrupt assessments of forest sensitivities. To be usable in such analyses, the meteorological record requires data quality control, gap filling, and adjustments to maintain the record's internal consistency in the face of commonly occurring methods changes (instruments, siting). We illustrate these issues using analyses of the long‐term La Selva records.     

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ_s). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ_s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.     

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962–2006) and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20‐year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The best‐supported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.     

Giants invading the tropics: the oriental vessel fern, Angiopteris evecta (Marattiaceae)

The Oriental vessel fern, Angiopteris evecta (G.Forst.) Hoffm. (Marattiaceae), has its native range in the South Pacific. This species has been introduced into other localities since the 18th century and is now listed as an invasive species in several regions (Jamaica, Hawaii and Costa Rica). The purpose of our study is (1) to trace the distributional history of the species, and (2) to model its potential future range based on climatic conditions. The native range and the history of introduction are based on the existing literature and on 158 specimens from 15 herbaria, together with field observations. As there are taxonomic problems surrounding A. evecta, we limited our analysis to samples from the Pacific, most closely resembling the type from Tahiti. We modelled the potential range using GARP species distribution modelling with basic climatic variables, elevation, and location in relation to the coast. Analysis of past records shows that the species is able to colonise new ecosystems with relative ease. The modelling reveals that the species could be cultivated over a much wider range than where it currently is grown. The escape of cultivated plants into nature is probably due to distance from natural areas and is limited by local ecological factors, such as soil conditions or competitors. The predicted distribution in Asia and Madagascar is similar to the native distribution of the entire genus Angiopteris. It can therefore be assumed that most Angiopteris species have similar climatic preferences, and the absence of A. evecta in this predicted region may be due to dispersal limitation. In the Americas there is no native Angiopteris, but our climatic model predicts a vast potential habitat in tropical America; an invasion of A. evecta should be anticipated here in localities where the species is cultivated. Vessel ferns are known to alter the natural environment, which may reduce local biodiversity. Since A. evecta is not yet widely cultivated, it is advisable to restrict the trade and spread of the species and to discourage its cultivation as an ornamental. The global climate data available for modelling is however not detailed enough to predict the spread of A. evecta on a local or regional scale.     

Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene‐pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold‐adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Evolutionary response to coexistence with close relatives: increased resistance against specialist herbivores without cost for climatic‐stress resistance

Why can hosts coexist with conspecifics or phylogenetically proximate neighbours despite sharing specialist enemies? Do the hosts evolve increased enemy resistance? If so, does this have costs in terms of climatic‐stress resistance, or in such neighbourhoods, does climatic‐stress select for resistances that are multifunctional against climate and enemies? We studied oak (Quercus petraea) descendants from provenances of contrasting phylogenetic neighbourhoods and climates in a 25‐year‐old common garden. We found that descendants from conspecific or phylogenetically proximate neighbourhoods had the toughest leaves and fewest leaf miners, but no reduction in climatic‐stress resistance. Descendants from such neighbourhoods under cold or dry climates had the highest flavonol and anthocyanin levels and the thickest leaves. Overall, populations facing phylogenetically proximate neighbours can rapidly evolve herbivore resistance, without cost to climatic‐stress resistance, but possibly facilitating resistance against cold and drought via multifunctional traits. Microevolution might hence facilitate ecological coexistence of close relatives and thereby macroevolutionary conservatism of niches.     

Ensuring a representative sample of earlywood vessels for dendroecological studies: an example from two ring-porous species

The analysis of time series of wood cell anatomical features (such as the earlywood vessels of ring-porous trees) is a successful approach to understand the effect of environmental factors on tree growth and thus constitutes a valuable source of information about past environmental conditions. However, despite the rising interest in analyzing wood anatomical time series, little or no attention has been paid to establish an adequate sample of cells in order to minimize the risk of missing a valuable environmental signal. In order to contribute to such methodological bases, this paper is aimed at (1) identifying a representative sample of earlywood vessels within a tree, which encode the same climatic information, and (2) assessing if it is preferable to obtain the sample of vessels along one or two radii. Four individuals of sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl.) and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) were harvested and all their earlywood vessel lumina were measured along two 40-mm wide radial strips. Measured vessels were selected stepwise while increasing the tangential width of the wood section from 1 to 40 mm, analyzing at each step (1) the common signal of chronologies and (2) the correlation to the main climatic variables controlling growth. Additionally, both radii in each tree were analyzed together and separately. The results showed that a total tangential width of 10 mm was enough to stabilize the climatic signal with improvement when distributed along two different radii, but a slightly larger tangential width was required to reach an optimal common signal. We suggest that, at least for the case of these two species growing at this specific climatic context, two 5-mm increment cores ensure a representative vessel selection.