Predicting small‐mammal responses to climatic warming: autecology,geographic range,and the Holocene fossil record

Forecasting how species will respond to climatic change requires knowledge of past community dynamics. Here we use time‐series data from the small‐mammal fossil records of two caves in the Great Basin of the American West to evaluate how contrasting and variable local paleoclimates have shaped small‐mammal abundance dynamics over the last ～7500 years of climatic change. We then predict how species and communities will respond to future scenarios of increased warming and aridity coupled with continued spread of an invasive annual grass (Bromus tectorum). We find that most community‐level responses to climatic change occur in the mammalian abundance structure at both sites; the dominance of the community by individuals from species with a southern geographic affinity increases with climatic warming. This suggests that responses occurred in situ rather than by the immigration of new taxa over this time interval. Despite predictability at the community‐scale, species‐level relationships between abundance and climate are variable and are not necessarily explained by a species' geographic affinity. Species present at both sites, however, exhibit remarkably similar responses to climate at each site, indicating that species autecology (specifically dietary functional group) is important in determining response to climatic warming. Regression‐tree analyses show remarkable concordance between the two cave faunas and highlight the importance of a granivorous dietary strategy in this desert ecosystem. Under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, our results indicate that granivores should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Granivores, however, are negatively impacted by the invasion of cheatgrass. The last century of anthropogenic impacts has thus placed granivores at a greater risk of extinction than predicted under climate‐only scenarios.     

From canopy to seed: Loss of snow drives directional changes in forest composition

Climate change is altering the conditions for tree recruitment, growth, and survival, and impacting forest community composition. Across southeast Alaska, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, Callitropsis nootkatensis (Alaska yellow‐cedar) is experiencing extensive climate change‐induced canopy mortality due to fine‐root death during soil freezing events following warmer winters and the loss of insulating snowpack. Here, we examine the effects of ongoing, climate‐driven canopy mortality on forest community composition and identify potential shifts in stand trajectories due to the loss of a single canopy species. We sampled canopy and regenerating forest communities across the extent of C. nootkatensis decline in southeast Alaska to quantify the effects of climate, community, and stand‐level drivers on C. nootkatensis canopy mortality and regeneration as well as postdecline regenerating community composition. Across the plot network, C. nootkatensis exhibited significantly higher mortality than co‐occurring conifers across all size classes and locations. Regenerating community composition was highly variable but closely related to the severity of C. nootkatensis mortality. Callitropsis nootkatensis canopy mortality was correlated with winter temperatures and precipitation as well as local soil drainage, with regenerating community composition and C. nootkatensis regeneration abundances best explained by available seed source. In areas of high C. nootkatensis mortality, C. nootkatensis regeneration was low and replaced by Tsuga. Our study suggests that climate‐induced forest mortality is driving alternate successional pathways in forests where C. nootkatensis was once a major component. These pathways are likely to lead to long‐term shifts in forest community composition and stand dynamics. Our analysis fills a critical knowledge gap on forest ecosystem response and rearrangement following the climate‐driven decline of a single species, providing new insight into stand dynamics in a changing climate. As tree species across the globe are increasingly stressed by climate change‐induced alteration of suitable habitat, identifying the autecological factors contributing to successful regeneration, or lack thereof, will provide key insight into forest resilience and persistence on the landscape.     

Species‐specific and temporal scale‐dependent responses of birds to drought

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought‐related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between‐year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within‐range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near‐annual grains. For all drought‐responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.     

Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass‐dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming

Northern temperate ecosystems are experiencing warmer and more variable winters, trends that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Despite this, most studies have focused on climate change impacts during the growing season, particularly when comparing responses across different vegetation cover types. Here we examined how a perennial grassland and adjacent mixed forest ecosystem in New Hampshire, United States, responded to a period of highly variable winters from 2014 through 2017 that included the warmest winter on record to date. In the grassland, record‐breaking temperatures in the winter of 2015/2016 led to a February onset of plant growth and the ecosystem became a sustained carbon sink well before winter ended, taking up roughly 90 g/m² more carbon during the winter to spring transition than in other recorded years. The forest was an unusually large carbon source during the same period. While forest photosynthesis was restricted by leaf‐out phenology, warm winter temperatures caused large pulses of ecosystem respiration that released nearly 230 g C/m² from February through April, more than double the carbon losses during that period in cooler years. These findings suggest that, as winters continue to warm, increases in ecosystem respiration outside the growing season could outpace increases in carbon uptake during a longer growing season, particularly in forests that depend on leaf‐out timing to initiate carbon uptake. In ecosystems with a perennial leaf habit, warming winter temperatures are more likely to increase ecosystem carbon uptake through extension of the active growing season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding relationships among antecedent winter conditions and carbon exchange across land‐cover types to understand how landscape carbon exchange will change under projected climate warming.     

Modelling marine community responses to climate‐driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem‐based management

As a consequence of global climate‐driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south‐eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range‐shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole‐of‐ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range‐shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range‐shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co‐occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem‐based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.     

Species-specific flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and drought alter herbaceous plant species overlap in a temperate–boreal forest community

Background and AimsWarmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. Here, we examine the flowering phenology responses of five herbaceous perennials to experimental warming and reduced summer rainfall over 3 years.MethodsThis study is part of the B4WarmED experiment located at two sites in northern Minnesota, USA. Three levels of warming (ambient, +1.6 °C and +3.1 °C) were crossed with two rainfall manipulations (ambient and 27 % reduced growing season rainfall).Key ResultsWe observed species-specific responses to the experimental treatments. Warming alone advanced flowering for four species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species showed the strongest advance of flowering to warming. Reduced rainfall alone advanced flowering for one autumn blooming species and delayed flowering for the other, with no significant impact on the three early blooming species. Only one species, Solidago spp., showed an interactive response to warming and rainfall manipulation by advancing in +1.6 °C warming (regardless of rainfall manipulation) but not advancing in the warmest, driest treatment. Species-specific responses led to changes in temporal overlap between species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species diverged significantly in their flowering timing. In ambient conditions, these two species flowered within the same week. In the warmest, driest treatment, flowering occurred over a month apart.ConclusionsHerbaceous species may differ in how they respond to future climate conditions. Changes to phenology may lead to fewer resources for insects or a mismatch between plants and pollinators.     

Accelerating regrowth of temperate‐maritime forests due to environmental change

To understand how environmental changes have influenced forest productivity, stemwood biomass (B) dynamics were analyzed at 1267 permanent inventory plots, covering a combined 209 ha area of unmanaged temperate‐maritime forest in southwest British Columbia, Canada. Net stemwood production (ΔB) was derived from periodic remeasurements of B collected over a 40‐year measurement period (1959–1998) in stands ranging from 20 to 150 years old. Comparison between the integrated age response of net stemwood production, ΔB(A), and the age response of stemwood biomass, B(A), suggested a 58 ± 11% increase in ΔB between the first 40 years of the chronosequence period (1859–1898) and the measurement period. To estimate extrinsic forcing on ΔB, several different candidate models were developed to remove variation explained by intrinsic factors. All models exhibited temporal bias, with positive trends in (observed minus predicted) residual ΔB ranging between of 0.40 and 0.64% yr^?1. Applying the same methods to stemwood growth (G) indicated residual increases ranging from 0.43 and 0.67% yr^?1. Higher trend estimates corresponded with models that included site index (SI) as a predictor, which may reflect exaggeration of the age‐decline in SI tables. Choosing a model that excluded SI, suggested that ΔB increased by 0.40 ± 0.18% yr^?1, while G increased by 0.43 ± 0.12% yr^?1 over the measurement period. Residual G was significantly correlated with atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), temperature (T), and climate moisture index (CMI). However, models driven with climate and CO₂, alone, could not simultaneously explain long‐term and measurement‐period trends without additional representation of indirect effects, perhaps reflecting compound interest on direct physiological responses to environmental change. Evidence of accelerating forest regrowth highlights the value of permanent inventories to detect and understand systematic changes in forest productivity caused by environmental change.     

Winter severity determines functional trait composition of phytoplankton in seasonally ice‐covered lakes

How climate change will affect the community dynamics and functionality of lake ecosystems during winter is still little understood. This is also true for phytoplankton in seasonally ice‐covered temperate lakes which are particularly vulnerable to the presence or absence of ice. We examined changes in pelagic phytoplankton winter community structure in a north temperate lake (Müggelsee, Germany), covering 18 winters between 1995 and 2013. We tested how phytoplankton taxa composition varied along a winter‐severity gradient and to what extent winter severity shaped the functional trait composition of overwintering phytoplankton communities using multivariate statistical analyses and a functional trait‐based approach. We hypothesized that overwintering phytoplankton communities are dominated by taxa with trait combinations corresponding to the prevailing winter water column conditions, using ice thickness measurements as a winter‐severity indicator. Winter severity had little effect on univariate diversity indicators (taxon richness and evenness), but a strong relationship was found between the phytoplankton community structure and winter severity when taxon trait identity was taken into account. Species responses to winter severity were mediated by the key functional traits: motility, nutritional mode, and the ability to form resting stages. Accordingly, one or the other of two functional groups dominated the phytoplankton biomass during mild winters (i.e., thin or no ice cover; phototrophic taxa) or severe winters (i.e., thick ice cover; exclusively motile taxa). Based on predicted milder winters for temperate regions and a reduction in ice‐cover durations, phytoplankton communities during winter can be expected to comprise taxa that have a relative advantage when the water column is well mixed (i.e., need not be motile) and light is less limiting (i.e., need not be mixotrophic). A potential implication of this result is that winter severity promotes different communities at the vernal equinox, which may have different nutritional quality for the next trophic level and ecosystem‐scale effects.     

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short‐term responses to climate variability and longer‐term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade‐long experiment, we compare effects of short‐term and long‐term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long‐term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short‐term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long‐term trajectories from short‐term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses.     

The responses of grassland plants to experimentally simulated climate change depend on land use and region

Macroclimatic niche properties derived from species distribution ranges are fundamental for projections of climate change impacts on biodiversity. However, it has been recognized that changes in regional or local distribution patterns also depend on interactions with land use. The reliability and transferability of large scale geographic predictions to small scale plant performance need to be tested experimentally. Thus, we asked how grassland plant species pairs with different macroclimatic niche properties respond to increased spring temperature and decrease summer precipitation in three different land‐use types. An experiment was carried out in the framework of the German Biodiversity Exploratories simulating climate change in 45 experimental plots in three geographical regions (Schorfheide‐Chorin, Hainich‐Dün, Schwäbische Alb) and three grassland management types (meadow, pasture, mown pasture). We planted six plant species as phytometers, each two of them representing congeneric species with contrasting macroclimatic niches and recorded plant survival and growth over 1 year. To quantify the species macroclimatic niches with respect to drought tolerance, the species’ distribution ranges were mapped and combined with global climate data. The simulated climate change had a general negative effect on plant survival and plant growth, irrespective of the macroclimatic niche characteristics of the species. Against expectation, species with ranges extending into drier regions did not generally perform better under drier conditions. Growth performance and survival was best in mown pastures, representing a quite intensive type of land use in all study regions. Species with higher macroclimatic drought tolerance were generally characterized by lower growth rates and higher survival rates in land‐use types with regular mowing regimes, probably because of reduced competition in the growing season. In conclusion, plant species with similar climatic niche characteristics cannot be expected to respond consistently over different regions owing to complex interactions of climate change with land use practices.     

Multi‐factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far‐reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO₂, warming, drought) in a Danish heathland ecosystem. The experiment was established in 2005 as a full factorial split‐plot with 6 blocks × 2 levels of CO₂ × 2 levels of warming × 2 levels of drought = 48 plots. In 2008, we exposed 432 larvae (n = 9 per plot) of the heather beetle (Lochmaea suturalis Thomson ), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO₂ (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under the drought treatment, and there was a three‐way interaction between time, CO₂, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO₂ were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co‐acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers.     

Life stage‐dependent effects of experimental heat waves on an insect herbivore

1. Worldwide concern about the consequences of climate change has prompted efforts to understand and predict the responses of populations to changes in temperature. 2. A heat wave can adversely affect organisms, may affect different life stages differently, and could decrease populations. In this study, green peach aphid [Myzus persicae (Sulzer)] nymphs, reproductive adults, and late‐reproductive adults were exposed to a heat wave, defined as 5 °C above the control temperature regime for five consecutive days. 3. The negative effects of experimental warming on development, reproduction, and survival negatively affected population growth. Nymphs and reproductive adults were more severely impacted than late‐reproductive adults. 4. Experiments designed to mimic temperature regimes can assess the direct effects of climate change on individuals and populations. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the life stage‐specific responses to heat stress.     

Interactive responses of old‐field plant growth and composition to warming and precipitation

As Earth's atmosphere accumulates carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases, Earth's climate is expected to warm and precipitation patterns will likely change. The manner in which terrestrial ecosystems respond to climatic changes will in turn affect the rate of climate change. Here we describe responses of an old‐field herbaceous community to a factorial combination of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three precipitation regimes (drought, ambient and rain addition) over 2 years. Warming suppressed total production, shoot production, and species richness, but only in the drought treatment. Root production did not respond to warming, but drought stimulated the growth of deeper (> 10 cm) roots by 121% in 1 year. Warming and precipitation treatments both affected functional group composition, with C₄ grasses and other annual and biennial species entering the C₃ perennial‐dominated community in ambient rainfall and rain addition treatments as well as in warmed treatments. Our results suggest that, in this mesic system, expected changes in temperature or large changes in precipitation alone can alter functional composition, but they have little effect on total herbaceous plant growth. However, drought limits the capacity of the entire system to withstand warming. The relative insensitivity of our study system to climate suggests that the herbaceous component of old‐field communities will not dramatically increase production in response to warming or precipitation change, and so it is unlikely to provide either substantial increases in forage production or a meaningful negative feedback to climate change later this century.     

Change in winter snow depth and its impacts on vegetation in China

Snow on land is an important component of the global climate system, but our knowledge about the effects of its changes on vegetation are limited, particularly in temperate regions. In this study, we use daily snow depth data from 279 meteorological stations across China to investigate the distribution of winter snow depth (December–February) from 1980 to 2005 and its impact on vegetation growth, here approximated by satellite‐derived vegetation greenness index observations [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)]. The snow depth trends show strong geographical heterogeneities. An increasing trend (>0.01 cm yr^?1) in maximum and mean winter snow depth is found north of 40°N (e.g. Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China). A declining trend (?1) is observed south of 40°N, particularly over Central and East China. The effect of changes in snow depth on vegetation growth was examined for several ecosystem types. In deserts, mean winter snow depth is significantly and positively correlated with NDVI during both early (May and June) and mid‐growing seasons (July and August), suggesting that winter snow plays a critical role in regulating desert vegetation growth, most likely through persistent effects on soil moisture. In grasslands, there is also a significant positive correlation between winter snow depth and NDVI in the period May–June. However, in forests, shrublands, and alpine meadow and tundra, no such correlation is found. These ecosystem‐specific responses of vegetation growth to winter snow depth may be due to differences in growing environmental conditions such as temperature and rainfall.     

Species and community responses to short‐term climate manipulation: Microarthropods in the sub‐Antarctic

Abstract: Both species and community‐level investigations are important for understanding the biotic impacts of climate change, because current evidence suggests that individual species responses are idiosyncratic. However, few studies of climate change impacts have been conducted on entire terrestrial arthropod communities living in the same habitat in the southern Hemisphere, and the effects of precipitation changes on them are particularly poorly understood. Here we investigate the species‐ and community‐level responses of microarthropods inhabiting a keystone plant species, on sub‐Antarctic Marion Island, to experimental reduction in precipitation, warming and shading. These climate manipulations were chosen based on observed climate trends and predicted indirect climate change impacts on this system. The dry‐warm and shade inducing treatments that were imposed effected significant species‐ and community‐level responses after a single year. Although the strongest community‐level trends included a dramatic decline in springtail abundance and total biomass under the dry‐warm and shade treatments, species responses were generally individualistic, that is, springtails responded differently to mites, and particular mite and springtail species responded differently to each other. Our results therefore provide additional support for the dynamic rather than static model for community responses to climate change, in the first such experiment in the sub‐Antarctic. In conclusion, these results show that an ongoing decline in precipitation and increase in temperature is likely to have dramatic direct and indirect effects on this microarthropod community. Moreover, they indicate that while at a broad scale it may be possible to make generalizations regarding species responses to climate change, these generalizations are unlikely to translate into predictable effects at the community level.     

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10⁶ km² and contains 80–90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process‐based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34–34.16 Pg in the top 1‐m soil with another 10.42–11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1–3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18–24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade^?1. The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant‐derived C influx and inhibited respiration.     

Regional grassland productivity responses to precipitation during multiyear above‐ and below‐average rainfall periods

There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of changes in precipitation associated with climate change, and ecosystem responses are also uncertain. Multiyear periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall may foretell consequences of changes in rainfall regime. We compiled long‐term aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation (PPT) data for eight North American grasslands, and quantified relationships between ANPP and PPT at each site, and in 1–3 year periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall for mesic, semiarid cool, and semiarid warm grassland types. Our objective was to improve understanding of ANPP dynamics associated with changing climatic conditions by contrasting PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average PPT years to those that occurred during sequences of multiple above‐ and below‐average years. We found differences in PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average years compared to long‐term site averages, and variation in ANPP not explained by PPT totals that likely are attributed to legacy effects. The correlation between ANPP and current‐ and prior‐year conditions changed from year to year throughout multiyear periods, with some legacy effects declining, and new responses emerging. Thus, ANPP in a given year was influenced by sequences of conditions that varied across grassland types and climates. Most importantly, the influence of prior‐year ANPP often increased with the length of multiyear periods, whereas the influence of the amount of current‐year PPT declined. Although the mechanisms by which a directional change in the frequency of above‐ and below‐average years imposes a persistent change in grassland ANPP require further investigation, our results emphasize the importance of legacy effects on productivity for sequences of above‐ vs. below‐average years, and illustrate the utility of long‐term data to examine these patterns.