Dispersal and spatial scale affect synchrony in spatial population dynamics

A large body of theoretical studies has shown that synchrony among populations is critical for the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. Although the effects of dispersal and environmental factors on synchrony have been investigated theoretically, empirical studies of these relationships have been lacking. We explored the interplay between environmental and demographic factors (fecundity, survival, dispersal) on population synchrony for 53 species of birds. We show that the interspecific differences in mean synchrony were determined by global environmental factors whose action was probably mediated by the abundance of each species. After removing the effect of these global factors on synchrony, the residual synchrony was strongly correlated with dispersal distance. The relationship between dispersal and synchrony was stronger for the species nesting in wet habitats than for those nesting in dry habitats. Our results indicate that different factors synchronize bird populations at different spatial scales, thus highlighting the role of scale in understanding spatial population dynamics and extinction risks.     

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

Although diversity–stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here, we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilising effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilising effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenisation) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales.     

Ecosystem stability in space: α, β and γ variability

The past two decades have seen great progress in understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem stability in local ecological systems. There is, however, an urgent need to extend existing knowledge to larger spatial scales to match the scale of management and conservation. Here, we develop a general theoretical framework to study the stability and variability of ecosystems at multiple scales. Analogously to the partitioning of biodiversity, we propose the concepts of alpha, beta and gamma variability. Gamma variability at regional (metacommunity) scale can be partitioned into local alpha variability and spatial beta variability, either multiplicatively or additively. On average, variability decreases from local to regional scales, which creates a negative variability–area relationship. Our partitioning framework suggests that mechanisms of regional ecosystem stability can be understood by investigating the influence of ecological factors on alpha and beta variability. Diversity can provide insurance effects at the various levels of variability, thus generating alpha, beta and gamma diversity–stability relationships. As a consequence, the loss of biodiversity and habitat impairs ecosystem stability at the regional scale. Overall, our framework enables a synthetic understanding of ecosystem stability at multiple scales and has practical implications for landscape management.     

Population synchrony within and among Lepidoptera species in relation to weather, phylogeny, and larval phenology

Abstract.  1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather.
2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation) from 12 sites was measured using cross-correlation functions relating levels of synchrony to the distance separating each set of populations. Based on both the pattern of synchrony and the region-wide cross-correlation coefficients, Lepidoptera species appear to be synchronised, at least in part, by local weather conditions.
3. Interspecific cross-correlations were calculated for all sympatric species pairs and trends in interspecific synchrony were related to phylogenetic relatedness, life-history timing, and weather. Interspecific synchrony was highest among species whose larvae were present during the same time of the season, but there was no relationship between interspecific synchrony and phylogenetic affinity.
4. Spatial synchrony of weather variables was significantly related to both species of some interspecific pairs, indicating weather as a potential mechanism involved in synchronising populations of different species.     

Littoral macroinvertebrate communities: spatial scale and ecological relationships

SUMMARY 1. Spatial correlations between ecological patterns and processes are thought to be scale-dependent, yet surprisingly few studies have evaluated the correspondence between different levels of spatial scale and ecosystem structure and function.
2. We evaluated the strength of relationships between the benthic macroinvertebrate communities of stony littoral habitats and levels of ecological scale and geographical position, using partial constrained ordination. Our hypothesis was that correlation strength would be inversely related to ecological scale, i.e. habitat > ecosystem > riparian > catchment > ecoregion.
3. The effect of habitat was greater than that of other levels of spatial scale: 23% of the variance in taxonomic composition and 11% of that in functional composition was explained by habitat variables alone. However, greater spatial scales were also important. For example, the combined influence of riparian, catchment and ecoregion classification accounted for 24% (taxonomic) and 11% (functional) of the explained variance.
4. Relationships between organisms and scale variables were, however, non-linear and a substantial amount of the functional variance was hidden in joint effects. These findings were not unexpected, and presumably indicate a close interdependence between local and regional-scale variables.     

Understanding ecological change across large spatial,temporal and taxonomic scales: integrating data and methods in light of theory

The difficulty of integrating multiple theories, data and methods has slowed progress towards making unified inferences of ecological change generalizable across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. However, recent progress towards a theoretical synthesis now provides a guiding framework for organizing and integrating all primary data and methods for spatiotemporal assemblage‐level inference in ecology. In this paper, we describe how recent theoretical developments can provide an organizing paradigm for linking advances in data collection and methodological frameworks across disparate ecological sub‐disciplines and across large spatial and temporal scales. First, we summarize the set of fundamental processes that determine change in multispecies assemblages across spatial and temporal scales by reviewing recent theoretical syntheses of community ecology. Second, we review recent advances in data and methods across the main sub‐disciplines concerned with ecological inference across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, and organize them based on the primary fundamental processes they include, rather than the spatiotemporal scale of their inferences. Finally, we highlight how iteratively focusing on only one fundamental process at a time, but combining all relevant spatiotemporal data and methods, may reduce the conceptual challenges to integration among ecological sub‐disciplines. Moreover, we discuss a number of avenues for decreasing the practical barriers to integration among data and methods. We aim to reconcile the recent convergence of decades of thinking in community ecology and macroecology theory with the rapid progress in spatiotemporal approaches for assemblage‐level inference, at a time where a robust understanding of spatiotemporal change in ecological assemblages is more crucial than ever to conserve biodiversity.     

Trade-offs in community ecology: linking spatial scales and species coexistence

Trade‐offs in species performances of different ecological functions is one of the most common explanations for coexistence in communities. Despite the potential for species coexistence occurring at local or regional spatial scales, trade‐offs are typically approached at a single scale. In recent years, ecologists have increasingly provided evidence for the importance of community processes at both local and regional spatial scales. This review summarizes the theoretical predictions for the traits associated with trade‐offs under different conditions and at different spatial scales. We provide a spatial framework for understanding trade‐offs, coexistence and the supportive empirical evidence. Predictions are presented that link the patterns of diversity observed to the patterns of trade‐offs that lead to coexistence at different spatial scales. Recent evidence for the evolution of trade‐offs under different conditions is provided which explores both laboratory microcosm studies and phylogenetic tests. Examining trade‐offs within a spatial framework can provide a strong approach to understanding community structure and dynamics, while explaining patterns of species diversity.     

Tipping points in tropical tree cover: linking theory to data

It has recently been found that the frequency distribution of remotely sensed tree cover in the tropics has three distinct modes, which seem to correspond to forest, savanna, and treeless states. This pattern has been suggested to imply that these states represent alternative attractors, and that the response of these systems to climate change would be characterized by critical transitions and hysteresis. Here, we show how this inference is contingent upon mechanisms at play. We present a simple dynamical model that can generate three alternative tree cover states (forest, savanna, and a treeless state), based on known mechanisms, and use this model to simulate patterns of tree cover under different scenarios. We use these synthetic data to show that the hysteresis inferred from remotely sensed tree cover patterns will be inflated by spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions. On the other hand, we show that the hysteresis inferred from satellite data may actually underestimate real hysteresis in response to climate change if there exists a positive feedback between regional tree cover and precipitation. Our results also indicate that such positive feedback between vegetation and climate should cause direct shifts between forest and a treeless state (rather than through an intermediate savanna state) to become more likely. Finally, we show how directionality of historical change in conditions may bias the observed relationship between tree cover and environmental conditions.     

Phylogenetic beta diversity: linking ecological and evolutionary processes across space in time

A key challenge in ecological research is to integrate data from different scales to evaluate the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that influence current patterns of biological diversity. We build on recent attempts to incorporate phylogenetic information into traditional diversity analyses and on existing research on beta diversity and phylogenetic community ecology. Phylogenetic beta diversity (phylobetadiversity) measures the phylogenetic distance among communities and as such allows us to connect local processes, such as biotic interactions and environmental filtering, with more regional processes including trait evolution and speciation. When combined with traditional measures of beta diversity, environmental gradient analyses or ecological niche modelling, phylobetadiversity can provide significant and novel insights into the mechanisms underlying current patterns of biological diversity.     

The sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.) (Lep., Crambidae) and its parasitoids: a synchrony approach to spatial and temporal dynamics

Abstract:  A data set on Diatraea saccharalis and its parasitoids, Cotesia flavipes and tachinid flies, was analysed at five spatial scales – sugarcane mill, region, intermediary, farm and zone – to determine the role of spatial scale in synchrony patterns, and on temporal population variability. To analyse synchrony patterns, only the three highest spatial scales were considered, but for temporal population variability, all spatial scales were adopted. The synchrony–distance relationship revealed complex spatial structures depending on both species and spatial scale. Temporal population variability [SD log( x  + 1)] levels were highest at the smallest spatial scales although, in the majority of the cases, temporal variability was inversely dependent on sample size. All the species studied, with a few exceptions, presented spatial synchrony independent of spatial scale. The tachinid flies exhibited stronger synchrony dynamics than D. saccharalis and C. flavipes in all spatial scales with the latter displaying the weakest synchrony levels, except when mill spatial scales were compared. In some cases spatial synchrony may at first decay and then increase with distance, but the presence of such patterns can change depending on the spatial scale adopted.     

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

Our ability to infer unobservable disease‐dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time‐averaged value and are based on population‐level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within‐host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within‐host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short‐lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual‐level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population‐level FOI signal can be recovered from individual‐level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual‐level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross‐scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual‐based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population‐level dynamics of disease.     

A dispersal-induced paradox: synchrony and stability in stochastic metapopulations

Understanding how dispersal influences the dynamics of spatially distributed populations is a major priority of both basic and applied ecologists. Two well-known effects of dispersal are spatial synchrony (positively correlated population dynamics at different points in space) and dispersal-induced stability (the phenomenon whereby populations have simpler or less extinction-prone dynamics when they are linked by dispersal than when they are isolated). Although both these effects of dispersal should occur simultaneously, they have primarily been studied separately. Herein, I summarise evidence from the literature that these effects are expected to interact, and I use a series of models to characterise that interaction. In particular, I explore the observation that although dispersal can promote both synchrony and stability singly, it is widely held that synchrony paradoxically prevents dispersal-induced stability. I show here that in many realistic scenarios, dispersal is expected to promote both synchrony and stability at once despite this apparent destabilising influence of synchrony. This work demonstrates that studying the spatial and temporal impacts of dispersal together will be vital for the conservation and management of the many communities for which human activities are altering natural dispersal rates.     

Pervasive effects of dispersal limitation on within- and among-community species richness in agricultural landscapes

Aim To determine whether the effect of habitat fragmentation and habitat heterogeneity on species richness at different spatial scales depends on the dispersal ability of the species assemblages and if this results in nested species assemblages. Location Agricultural landscapes distributed over seven temperate Europe countries covering a range from France to Estonia. Methods We sampled 16 local communities in each of 24 agricultural landscapes (16 km²) that differ in the amount and heterogeneity of semi‐natural habitat patches. Carabid beetles were used as model organisms as dispersal ability can easily be assessed on morphological traits. The proximity and heterogeneity of semi‐natural patches within the landscape were related to average local (alpha), between local (beta) and landscape (gamma) species richness and compared among four guilds that differ in dispersal ability. Results For species assemblages with low dispersal ability, local diversity increased as the proximity of semi‐natural habitat increased, while mobile species showed an opposite trend. Beta diversity decreased equally for all dispersal classes in relation to proximity, suggesting a homogenizing effect of increased patch isolation. In contrast, habitat diversity of the semi‐natural patches affected beta diversity positively only for less mobile species, probably due to the low dispersal ability of specialist species. Species with low mobility that persisted in highly fragmented landscapes were consistently present in less fragmented ones, resulting in nested assemblages for this mobility class only. Main conclusions The incorporation of dispersal ability reveals that only local species assemblages with low dispersal ability show a decrease of richness as a result of fragmentation. This local species loss is compensated at least in part by an increase in species with high dispersal ability, which obscures the effect of fragmentation when investigated across dispersal groups. Conversely, fragmentation homogenizes the landscape fauna for all dispersal groups, which indicates the invasion of non‐crop habitats by similar good dispersers across the whole landscape. Given that recolonization of low dispersers is unlikely, depletion of these species in modern agricultural landscapes appears temporally pervasive.     

Large-scale synchrony and inter-annual variability in roach recruitment in the Rhône River: the relative role of climatic factors and density-dependent processes

1. We report patterns of temporal variation in the recruitment of roach ( Rutilus rutilus ). The data consist of the annual abundance of the first 2 year-classes, 0+ and 1+ fish, at four sites in the Rhône River (France) between 1987 and 1997. Over this 11-year period both 0+ and 1+ fish fluctuated strongly.
2. Cross-correlation indicated high spatial synchrony in 0+ dynamics, although correlations among sites in 1+ dynamics were weaker. No clear pattern was apparent in the relationship between the level of synchrony and distance between pairs of sites.
3. The spatial synchrony in 0+ fish could be attributable to large-scale variations in weather, influencing water temperature. Total body length of 0+ roach was correlated with water temperature (expressed in degree-days over 12 °C), and water temperature was the main factor explaining inter-annual variation in 0+ cohort size. Monthly variation in abiotic factors (measured by standard deviation in water temperature and discharge) did not influence 0+ fluctuations. Correlations with June water temperature suggest that year-class strength was mainly determined by abiotic factors during the first few months of life.
4. The absence of spatial synchrony in 1+ fluctuations suggests little correlation between survival and abiotic conditions during the first year of life, other factors influencing survival.
5. Survival in the first year was density-dependent. Intraspecific competition within the 0+ cohort could thus influence the fluctuations in recruitment to older age-classes.
6. The implications of age- or stage-dependent synchrony in temporal variation for species with complex life histories are discussed. Studying spatial synchrony for the different life history stages could enhance our understanding of the population dynamics of spatially structured species.     

Using multi-scale species distribution data to infer drivers of biological invasion in riparian wetlands

Aim Biological invasion is a major conservation problem that is of interest to ecological science. Understanding mechanisms of invasion is a high priority, heightened by the management imperative of acting quickly after species introduction. While information about invading species’ ecology is often unavailable, species distribution data can be collected near the onset of invasion. By examining distribution patterns of exotic and native plant species at multiple spatial scales, we aim to identify the scale (of those studied) that accounts for most variability in exotic species abundance, and infer likely drivers of invasion. Location River Murray wetlands, south‐eastern Australia. Methods A nested, crossed survey design was used to determine the extent of variation in wetland plant abundance, grazing intensity and water depth at four spatial scales (reaches, wetland clumps, wetlands, wetland sections), and among three Depth‐strata. We examined responses of exotic and native species groups (grouped into terrestrial and amphibious taxa), native weeds and 10 individual species using hierarchical ANOVA. Results As a group dominated by terrestrial taxa, exotic species cover varied at reach‐, wetland‐ and section‐scales. This likely reflects differences in abiotic characteristics and propagule pressure at these scales. Groups based on native species did not vary at any scale examined. Cover of 10 species mostly varied among and within wetlands (patterns unrelated to species’ origin or functional group), but species’ responses differed, despite individual plants being similar in size. While flora mostly varied among wetlands, exotic cover varied most among reaches (26%), which was attributed to hydrological modification and human activities. Main conclusions Multi‐scale surveys can rapidly identify factors likely to affect species’ distributions and can indicate where future research should be directed. By highlighting disproportionate variation in exotic cover among reaches, this study suggests that flow regulation and human‐mediated dispersal facilitate exotic plant invasion in River Murray wetlands.     

Non-random interactions within and across guilds shape the potential to coexist in multi-trophic ecological communities

Theory posits that the persistence of species in ecological communities is shaped by their interactions within and across trophic guilds. However, we lack empirical evaluations of how the structure, strength and sign of biotic interactions drive the potential to coexist in diverse multi-trophic communities. Here, we model community feasibility domains, a theoretically informed measure of multi-species coexistence probability, from grassland communities comprising more than 45 species on average from three trophic guilds (plants, pollinators and herbivores). Contrary to our hypothesis, increasing community complexity, measured either as the number of guilds or community richness, did not decrease community feasibility. Rather, we observed that high degrees of species self-regulation and niche partitioning allow for maintaining larger levels of community feasibility and higher species persistence in more diverse communities. Our results show that biotic interactions within and across guilds are not random in nature and both structures significantly contribute to maintaining multi-trophic diversity.     

Phase locking, the Moran effect and distance decay of synchrony: experimental tests in a model system

Spatially separated populations of many species fluctuate synchronously. Synchrony typically decays with increasing interpopulation distance. Spatial synchrony, and its distance decay, might reflect distance decay of environmental synchrony (the Moran effect), and/or short-distance dispersal. However, short-distance dispersal can synchronize entire metapopulations if within-patch dynamics are cyclic, a phenomenon known as phase locking. We manipulated the presence/absence of short-distance dispersal and spatially decaying environmental synchrony and examined their separate and interactive effects on the synchrony of the protist prey species Tetrahymena pyriformis growing in spatial arrays of patches (laboratory microcosms). The protist predator Euplotes patella consumed Tetrahymena and generated predator-prey cycles. Dispersal increased prey synchrony uniformly over both short and long distances, and did so by entraining the phases of the predator-prey cycles. The Moran effect also increased prey synchrony, but only over short distances where environmental synchrony was strongest, and did so by increasing the synchrony of stochastic fluctuations superimposed on the predator-prey cycle. Our results provide the first experimental demonstration of distance decay of synchrony due to distance decay of the Moran effect. Distance decay of the Moran effect likely explains distance decay of synchrony in many natural systems. Our results also provide an experimental demonstration of long-distance phase locking, and explain why cyclic populations provide many of the most dramatic examples of long-distance spatial synchrony in nature.     

Geographical variation in the population dynamics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thecodiplosis japonensis</Emphasis>: causes and effects on spatial synchrony

Geographical variation in population dynamics of a species offers an opportunity to understand the factors determining observed patterns of spatial dynamics. We evaluated the spatial variation in the population dynamics of the pine needle gall midge (PNGM), Thecodiplosis japonensis, which is a severe insect pest in pine forests in Korea, and studied the influences of weather factors that could affect its population dynamics. Results revealed that PNGM population dynamics were classified into five clusters based on the analysis of autocorrelation function and self-organizing map, which is an artificial neural network. We also quantified spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of PNGM using the nonparametric covariance function. Variation in spatial synchrony was strongly related to differences in maximum temperature and precipitation in Random Forest analysis, suggesting that the synchrony in PNGM population dynamics is largely the result of the Moran effect. In addition, spatial differences in population dynamics could be influenced by transient process of synchronization following invasion. Finally, the present results indicate that differences in population dynamics can be induced by interactions among several factors such as maximum temperature, precipitation, and invasion history of species.     

异质景观中水土流失的空间变异与尺度变异

综述了景观格局与水土流失过程的空间变异与尺度变异的理论和方法研究进展,提出了水土流失空间变异与尺度变异的研究方向。景观格局与生态过程的尺度变异一般处于单一尺度变异和多重尺度变异的连续体之中。尺度转换即尺度外推包括尺度上推和尺度下推,其可行性决定于尺度变异特征。水土流失不仅是多因子综合影响的一个复杂的时空变异过程,而且也是一个典型的多重尺度变异过程。传统的水土流失研究一般集中在坡面径流小区和小流域两个单一尺度上,这在很大程度上限制了水土流失的空间尺度外推和过程分析。近年来,尽管国内外很多学者开始关注水土流失的尺度变异及其影响因子．但只是对水土流失在不同大小的样地尺度以及小集水区尺度上的差异及其影响因子进行了初步的比较研究,尤其缺乏水土流失及其相关环境因子的连续尺度变异特征的机制分析。空间变异和尺度变异研究方法包括统计模型模拟法、物理模型与物理过程模拟法以及综合分析与综合预报法三大类。每种方法都有其优缺点和其特定的适宜性,最佳方法组合的选取因研究对象、研究地区和研究时间的不同而异。土壤侵蚀预报模型包括经验统计模型和物理过程模型,就解决水土流失的跨尺度关系而言,基于物理过程的空间分布式的土壤侵蚀预报模型显著优于经验模型。这些模型在关键参数的空间变异性描述和水土流失的尺度变异性分析方面非常薄弱,尤其缺乏模型分辨率和研究范围对输出结果的影响研究。完善水土流失的“尺度一格局一过程”理论,加强多重尺度上水土流失及其相关环境因子的空间变异格局和尺度变异性的实地观测与数学分析,改进土壤侵蚀预报模型这3个方面是将来的研究重点。