Extreme streams: species persistence and genomic change in montane insect populations across a flooding gradient

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of extreme events are poorly understood. Here, we tested predictions about species persistence and population genomic change in aquatic insects in 14 Colorado mountain streams across a hydrological disturbance gradient caused by a one in 500‐year rainfall event. Taxa persistence ranged from 39 to 77% across sites and declined with increasing disturbance in relation to species' resistance and resilience traits. For taxa with mobile larvae and terrestrial adult stages present at the time of the flood, average persistence was 84% compared to 25% for immobile taxa that lacked terrestrial adults. For two of six species analysed, genomic diversity (allelic richness) declined after the event. For one species it greatly expanded, suggesting resilience via re‐colonisation from upstream populations. Thus, while resistance and resilience traits can explain species persistence to extreme disturbance, population genomic change varies among species, challenging generalisations about evolutionary responses to extreme events at landscape scales.     

Resilience of Zostera muelleri seagrass to small‐scale disturbances: the relative importance of asexual versus sexual recovery

Resilience is the ability of an ecosystem to recover from disturbance without loss of essential function. Seagrass ecosystems are key marine and estuarine habitats that are under threat from a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The ability of these ecosystems to recovery from disturbance will to a large extent depend on the internsity and scale of the disturbance, and the relative importance of sexual versus asexual reproduction within populations. Here, we investigated the resilience of Zostera muelleri seagrass (Syn. Zostera capricorni) to small‐scale disturbances at four locations in Lake Macquarie – Australia's largest coastal lake – and monitored recovery over a 65‐week period. Resilience of Z. muelleri varied significantly with disturbance intensity; Z. muelleri recovered rapidly (within 2 weeks) from low‐intensity disturbance (shoot loss), and rates of recovery appeared related to initial shoot length. Recovery via rhizome encroachment (asexual regeneration) from high‐intensity disturbance (loss of entire plant) varied among locations, ranging from 18‐35 weeks, whereas the ability to recover was apparently lost (at least within the time frame of this study) when recovery depended on sexual regeneration, suggesting that seeds do not provide a mechanism of recovery against intense small‐scale disturbances. The lack of sexual recruits into disturbed sites is surprising as our initial surveys of genotypic diversity (using nine polymorphic microsatellite loci) at these location indicate that populations are maintained by a mix of sexual and asexual reproduction (genotypic diversity [R] varied from 0.24 to 0.44), and populations consisted of a mosaic of genotypes with on average 3.6 unique multilocus genotypes per 300 mm diameter plot. We therefore conclude that Z. muelleri populations within Lake Macquarie rely on clonal growth to recover from small‐scale disturbances and that ongoing sexual recruitment by seeds into established seagrass beds (as opposed to bare areas arising from disturbance) must be the mechanism responsible for maintaining the observed mixed genetic composition of Z. muelleri seagrass meadows.     

Predicting the cumulative effect of multiple disturbances on seagrass connectivity

The rate of exchange, or connectivity, among populations effects their ability to recover after disturbance events. However, there is limited information on the extent to which populations are connected or how multiple disturbances affect connectivity, especially in coastal and marine ecosystems. We used network analysis and the outputs of a biophysical model to measure potential functional connectivity and predict the impact of multiple disturbances on seagrasses in the central Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA), Australia. The seagrass networks were densely connected, indicating that seagrasses are resilient to the random loss of meadows. Our analysis identified discrete meadows that are important sources of seagrass propagules and that serve as stepping stones connecting various different parts of the network. Several of these meadows were close to urban areas or ports and likely to be at risk from coastal development. Deep water meadows were highly connected to coastal meadows and may function as a refuge, but only for non‐foundation species. We evaluated changes to the structure and functioning of the seagrass networks when one or more discrete meadows were removed due to multiple disturbance events. The scale of disturbance required to disconnect the seagrass networks into two or more components was on average >245 km, about half the length of the metapopulation. The densely connected seagrass meadows of the central GBRWHA are not limited by the supply of propagules; therefore, management should focus on improving environmental conditions that support natural seagrass recruitment and recovery processes. Our study provides a new framework for assessing the impact of global change on the connectivity and persistence of coastal and marine ecosystems. Without this knowledge, management actions, including coastal restoration, may prove unnecessary and be unsuccessful.     

Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change

Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN‐SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate‐related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate‐related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter‐ and intra‐species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.     

Shifts in population size structure for a drying‐tolerant fish in response to extreme drought

For freshwater systems, climate change‐induced alterations to drought regimes are a considerable threat to already threatened species. This is particularly poignant for kōwaro (or Canterbury mudfish, Neochanna burrowsius), a critically endangered fish largely restricted to drying‐prone waterways on the Canterbury Plains, New Zealand. By comparing three catchment‐wide surveys (2007, 2010, 2015) within the Waianiwaniwa Valley, we assessed the scale and magnitude of population change induced by 2 years of consecutive drought (2014–15), when compared to surveys during wetter conditions (2007, 2010). The droughts triggered a catchment‐wide switch from adult‐dominated populations to populations comprised of juveniles indicated by a significant reduction in median size (~95 mm during the wet to ~60 mm after drought). In comparison, population abundances were highly variable, indicated by no significant change in catch‐per‐unit‐effort. The large variation in catch rates and connection of median size to reproductive potential mean median size will be useful to measure in monitoring to infer potential changes to population resilience, particularly during extreme events. Furthermore, because N. burrowsius could be regarded as extremophile fish, already restricted to harsh habitats, they are likely to become increasingly threatened by climate change. Thus, tools that allow for insightful comparisons between populations, such as a population resilience framework based on both abundance and body size distribution, will be increasingly important for pragmatic decision‐making for targeted conservation measures.     

Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)

Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human‐mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi‐matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (≤0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when human‐mediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human‐mediated threats.     

Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations

Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience—resistance and recovery—in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability—but not resistance—of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.     

Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare,fire‐dependent plant

As a clear consensus is emerging that habitat for many species will dramatically reduce or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population‐level factors that have not yet been quantitatively evaluated – the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals in their new habitat and whether the recipient habitat is subject to ongoing threats all will play an important role in population persistence. In this article, we do not take one side or the other in the debate over whether assisted colonization is worthwhile. Rather, we focus on the likelihood that assisted colonization will promote population persistence in the face of climate‐induced distribution changes and altered fire regimes for a rare endemic species. We link a population model with species distribution models to investigate expected changes in populations with climate change, the impact of altered fire regimes on population persistence and how much assisted colonization is necessary to minimize risk of decline in populations of Tecate cypress, a rare endemic tree in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot. We show that assisted colonization may be a risk‐minimizing adaptation strategy when there are large source populations that are declining dramatically due to habitat contractions, multiple nearby sites predicted to contain suitable habitat, minimal natural dispersal, high rates of establishment of translocated populations and the absence of nonclimatic threats such as altered disturbance regimes. However, when serious ongoing threats exist, assisted colonization is ineffective.     

Isolation predicts compositional change after discrete disturbances in a global meta‐study

Globally, anthropogenic disturbances are occurring at unprecedented rates and over extensive spatial and temporal scales. Human activities also affect natural disturbances, prompting shifts in their timing and intensities. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to disturbance. In this study, we investigated whether there are general determinants of community response to disturbance across different community types, locations, and disturbance events. We compiled 14 case studies of community response to disturbance from four continents, twelve aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem types, and eight different types of disturbance. We used community compositional differences and species richness to indicate community response. We used mixed‐effects modeling to test the relationship between each of these response metrics and four potential explanatory factors: regional species pool size, isolation, number of generations passed, and relative disturbance intensity. We found that compositional similarity was higher between pre‐ and post‐disturbance communities when the disturbed community was connected to adjacent undisturbed habitat. The number of generations that had passed since the disturbance event was a significant, but weak, predictor of community compositional change; two communities were responsible for the observed relationship. We found no significant relationships between the factors we tested and changes in species richness. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to search for general drivers of community resilience from a diverse set of case studies. The strength of the relationship between compositional change and isolation suggests that it may be informative in resilience research and biodiversity management.     

A macroecological approach to evolutionary rescue and adaptation to climate change

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.     

Impacts of logging and conversion of rainforest to oil palm on the functional diversity of birds in Sundaland

Commercial selective logging and the conversion of primary and degraded forests to agriculture are the biggest threats to tropical biodiversity. Our understanding of the impacts of these disturbances and the resulting local extinctions on the functional roles performed by the remaining species is limited. We address this issue by examining functional diversity (FD), which quantifies a range of traits that affect a species' ecological role in a community as a single continuous metric. We calculated FD for birds across a gradient of disturbance from primary forest through intensively logged forest to oil palm plantations on previously forested land in Borneo, Southeast Asia, a hotspot of imperilled biodiversity. Logged rainforest retained similar levels of FD to unlogged rainforest, even after two logging rotations, but the conversion of logged forest to oil palm resulted in dramatic reductions in FD. The few remaining species in oil palm filled a disproportionately wide range of functional roles but showed very little clustering in terms of functional traits, suggesting that any further extinctions from oil palm would reduce FD even further. Determining the extent to which the changes we recorded were due to under‐utilization of resources within oil palm or a reduction in the resources present is an important next step. Nonetheless our study improves our understanding of the stability and resilience of functional diversity in these ecosystems and of the implications of land‐use changes for ecosystem functioning.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high‐elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.     

Variation in the population structure between a natural and a human‐modified forest for a pioneer tropical tree species not restricted to large gaps

The distribution of tree species in tropical forests is generally related to the occurrence of disturbances and shifts in the local environmental conditions such as light, temperature, and biotic factors. Thus, the distribution of pioneer tree species is expected to vary according to the gap characteristics and with human disturbances. We asked whether there was variation in the distribution of a pioneer species under different environmental conditions generated by natural disturbances, and between two forests with contrasting levels of human disturbance. To answer this question, we studied the distribution patterns and population persistence of the pioneer tree species Croton floribundus in the size and age gap range of a primary Brazilian forest. Additionally, we compared the plant density of two size‐classes between a primary and an early successional human‐disturbed forest. Croton floribundus was found to be widespread and equally distributed along the gap‐size gradient in the primary forest. Overall density did not vary with gap size or age (F‐ratio = 0.062, P = 0.941), and while juveniles were found to have a higher density in the early successional forest (P = 0.021), tree density was found to be similar between forests (P = 0.058). Our results indicate that the population structure of a pioneer tree species with long life span and a broad gap‐size niche preference varied between natural and human‐disturbed forests, but not with the level of natural disturbance. We believe this can be explained by the extreme environmental changes that occur after human disturbance. The ecological processes that affect the distribution of pioneer species in natural and human‐modified forests may be similar, but our results suggest they act differently under the contrasting environmental conditions generated by natural and human disturbances.     

All the eggs in one basket: Are island refuges securing an endangered passerine?

Refuges for threatened species are important to prevent species extinction. They provide protection from a range of environmental and biotic stressors, and ideally provide protection against all threatening processes. However, for some species it may not be clear why some areas are refuges and others are not. The forty‐spotted pardalote (Pardalotus quadragintus) is an endangered, sedentary, cryptic and specialised bird endemic to the island of Tasmania, Australia. Having undergone an extreme range contraction over the past century the species is now mostly confined to a few small offshore island refuges. Key threatening processes to the species include habitat loss, wildfire, competition and predation. The ways in which these processes have molded the species’ contemporary range have not been clearly evaluated. Furthermore, the security of the remnant population within refuges is uncertain. To overcome this uncertainty we assessed key threats and established the population status in known refuges by developing a robust survey protocol within an occupancy modelling framework. We discuss our results in the context of planning trial reintroductions of this endangered species in suitable habitat across its former range. We found very high occupancy rates (0.75–0.96) at two refuges and in suitable conditions, the species was highly detectable (p, 0.43–0.77). At a third location our surveys indicated a local extinction, likely due to recent wildfire. We demonstrate that all refuges are at high risk of one or more threatening processes and the current distribution across island refuges is unlikely to secure the species from extinction. We identified large areas of potential habitat across the species’ former mainland range, but these are likely too distant from source populations for natural recolonisation. We propose that establishing new populations of forty‐spotted pardalotes via reintroduction is essential to secure the species and that this is best achieved while robust source populations still exist.     

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence‐environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi‐site count and capture‐recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first‐year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio‐temporal distribution of samples between count and capture‐recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad‐scale multi‐site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.     

Revegetation following Soil Disturbance and Invasion in a Californian Meadow: a 10-year History of Recovery

Disturbance is necessary for the regeneration of many native plant species, but can also facilitate biological invasions. As a result, disturbance can play complex roles in vulnerable habitats such as remnant Californian perennial grasslands. To investigate these conflicts, plots in a northern Californian coastal grassland were experimentally disturbed in the winter of 1990–1991; these plots differed in the area and intensity (depth) of the soil disturbance applied. When these plots were revisited after 10 growing seasons, patterns of revegetation differed significantly from those observed early in recolonization (0–3 years). At the earlier samplings, exotic annual grasses rapidly increased in most disturbance types. After 10 years, these exotic annuals had retreated from the depth experiment, which had recovered to a vegetation dominated by native perennials in all but the most severely disturbed plots. In contrast, although differences between control and disturbed plots also disappeared in the area experiment, the average abundance of aliens did not decline substantially relative to 1993 levels, especially in larger disturbances. Nonetheless, populations of aliens remained small compared to the peak populations in the depth experiment, probably reflecting wetter soils at the site used for the area experiment. These results differ from those of other recent studies of soil disturbance in coastal Californian ecosystems, which indicate disturbance may result in the permanent replacement of native perennial vegetation by dense populations of exotic annual grasses. This difference may reflect the high resilience of northern coastal grasslands as well as the scale of disturbances considered by different studies.     

A welcome can of worms? Hypoxia mitigation by an invasive species

Invasive species and bottom‐water hypoxia both constitute major global threats to the diversity and integrity of marine ecosystems. These stressors may interact with unexpected consequences, as invasive species that require an initial environmental disturbance to become established can subsequently become important drivers of ecological change. There is recent evidence that improved bottom‐water oxygen conditions in coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea coincide with increased abundances of the invasive polychaetes Marenzelleria spp. Using a reactive‐transport model, we demonstrate that the long‐term bioirrigation activities of dense Marenzelleria populations have a major impact on sedimentary phosphorus dynamics. This may facilitate the switch from a seasonally hypoxic system back to a normoxic system by reducing the potential for sediment‐induced eutrophication in the upper water column. In contrast to short‐term laboratory experiments, our simulations, which cover a 10‐year period, show that Marenzelleria has the potential to enhance long‐term phosphorus retention in muddy sediments. Over time bioirrigation leads to a substantial increase in the iron‐bound phosphorus content of sediments while reducing the concentration of labile organic carbon. As surface sediments are maintained oxic, iron oxyhydroxides are able to persist and age into more refractory forms. The model illustrates mechanisms through which Marenzelleria can act as a driver of ecological change, although hypoxic disturbance or natural population declines in native species may be needed for them to initially become established. Invasive species are generally considered to have a negative impact; however, we show here that one of the main recent invaders in the Baltic Sea may provide important ecosystem services. This may be of particular importance in low‐diversity systems, where disturbances may dramatically alter ecosystem services due to low functional redundancy. Thus, an environmental problem in one region may be either exacerbated or alleviated by a single species from another region, with potentially ecosystem‐wide consequences.     

Resilience of corals to hurricanes: a simulation model

This study tested how the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, and the size and growth rate of coral colonies influence the resilience of coral populations to disturbance by severe storms. A simulation modelling approach was used to examine the resilience of four coral species with differing life history characteristics: Agaricia agaricites, A. lamarcki, Helioseris cucullata, and Porites astreoides. Resilience, defined as the rate of area (coral cover) gain, was greater for three of the species when storms were less frequent or more intense. Resilience for all species increased with colony growth rates and with increasing proportion of small and medium-sized colonies. We conclude that (1) coral populations composed of intermediate-size, fast-growing colonies the most resilient following one or more storm disturbances, and (2) that resilience of anthropogenically stressed corals depends, in part, on population size structure.     

PHENOTYPIC DIFFERENTIATION AT SOUTHERN LIMIT BORDERS: THE CASE STUDY OF TWO FUCOID MACROALGAL SPECIES WITH DIFFERENT LIFE‐HISTORY TRAITS1

Marginal populations are often geographically isolated, smaller, and more fragmented than central populations and may frequently have to face suboptimal local environmental conditions. Persistence of these populations frequently involves the development of adaptive traits at phenotypic and genetic levels. We compared population structure and demographic variables in two fucoid macroalgal species contrasting in patterns of genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity at their southern distribution limit with a more central location. Models were Ascophyllum nodosum (L.) Le Jol. (whose extreme longevity and generation overlap may buffer genetic loss by drift) and Fucus serratus L. (with low genetic diversity at southern margins). At edge locations, both species exhibited trends in life‐history traits compatible with population persistence but by using different mechanisms. Marginal populations of A. nodosum had higher reproductive output in spite of similar mortality rates at all life stages, making edge populations denser and with smaller individuals. In F. serratus, rather than demographic changes, marginal populations differed in habitat, occurring restricted to a narrower vertical habitat range. We conclude that persistence of both A. nodosum and F. serratus at the southern‐edge locations depends on different strategies. Marginal population persistence in A. nodosum relies on a differentiation in life‐history traits, whereas F. serratus, putatively poorer in evolvability potential, is restricted to a narrower vertical range at border locations. These results contribute to the general understanding of mechanisms that lead to population persistence at distributional limits and to predict population resilience under a scenario of environmental change.