Detecting local diversity‐dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum‐likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity‐dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co‐occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity‐dependence model can detect local diversity‐dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity‐dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity‐dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity‐dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity‐dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.     

Biotic and abiotic factors driving the diversification dynamics of Crocodylia

Species diversity patterns are governed by complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors over time and space, but are essentially the result of the diversification dynamics (differential speciation and extinction rates) over the long-term evolutionary history of a clade. Previous studies have suggested that temporal variation in global temperature drove long-term diversity changes in Crocodylia, a monophyletic group of large ectothermic organisms. We use a large database of crocodylian fossil occurrences (192 spp.) and body mass estimations, under a taxic approach, to characterize the global diversification dynamics of crocodylians since the Cretaceous, and their correlation with multiple biotic and abiotic factors in a Bayesian framework. The diversification dynamic of crocodylians, which appears to have originated in the Turonian (c. 92.5 Ma), is characterized by several phases with high extinction and speciation rates within a predominantly low long-term mean rate. Our results reveal long-term diversification dynamics of Crocodylia to be a highly complex process driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors which influenced the speciation and extinction rates in dissimilar ways. Higher crocodylian extinction rates are related to low body mass disparity, indicating selective extinctions of taxa at both ends of the body mass spectrum. Speciation rate slowdowns are noted when the diversity of the clade is high and the warm temperate climatic belt is reduced. Our finding supports the idea that temporal variations of body mass disparity, self-diversity, and the warm climate belt size provided more direct mechanistic explanations for crocodylian diversification than do proxies of global temperature.     

Parasitoid fig‐wasp evolutionary diversification and variation in ecological opportunity

Ecological processes are manifest in the evolution and form of phenotype diversity. The great abundance of parasitoid species has led to speculation whether rates of speciation and extinction are dependent on parasitoid diversity. If these factors are mutually exclusive, species diversity should fluctuate instead of remaining relatively constant over time. It is not known whether radiations constrained by coevolutionary interactions conform to density‐dependent diversification processes. Here we test the prediction that parasitoid fig wasp diversification responds to changes in ecological opportunity and density‐independent processes. A phylogenetic approach is used to estimate relative divergence times and infer diversification rate changes using γ‐statistics. Monte Carlo constant rates tests that accommodate incomplete sampling could not reject constant rates diversification. Parasitoid fig wasp diversification is consistent with a more complex explanation than density‐dependent cladogenesis. The results suggest contemporary African parasitoid fig wasp diversity remains a legacy of an ancient ecological opportunity facilitated by fig tree diversification following the breakup of Pan‐African forests and evolution of the savanna biome over the last 55 Ma and the more recent aridification of the African continent in the last 5 Ma. These results imply that amplified phenotypic differentiation of specialist insects coevolving with plants is coupled to evolutionarily infrequent changes in ecological opportunity.     

ECOLOGICAL CAUSES OF DECELERATING DIVERSIFICATION IN CARNIVORAN MAMMALS

Clade diversification is a central topic in macroevolutionary studies. Recently, it has been shown that diversification rates appear to decelerate over time in many clades. What causes this deceleration remains unclear, but it has been proposed that competition for limited resources between sympatric, ecologically similar species slows diversification. Employing carnivoran mammals as a model system, we test this hypothesis using a comprehensive time‐calibrated phylogeny. We also explore several conceptually related explanations including limited geographic area and limited rates of niche evolution. We find that diversification slowdowns are strong in carnivorans. Surprisingly, these slowdowns are independent of geographic range overlap between related species and are also decoupled from rates of niche evolution, suggesting that slowdowns are unrelated to competition and niche filling. When controlling for the effects of clade diversity, diversification slowdowns appear independent of geographic area. There is a significant effect of clade diversity on diversification slowdowns, but simulations show that this relationship may arise as a statistical artifact (i.e., greater clade diversity increases the ability of the gamma statistic to refute constant diversification). Overall, our results emphasize the need to test hypotheses about the causes of diversification slowdowns with ecological data, rather than assuming ecological processes from phylogenies alone.     

Branching patterns in phylogenies cannot distinguish diversity‐dependent diversification from time‐dependent diversification

One of the primary goals of macroevolutionary biology has been to explain general trends in long‐term diversity patterns, including whether such patterns correspond to an upscaling of processes occurring at lower scales. Reconstructed phylogenies often show decelerated lineage accumulation over time. This pattern has often been interpreted as the result of diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification, where the accumulation of species causes diversification to decrease through niche filling. However, other processes can also produce such a slowdown, including time dependence without diversity dependence. To test whether phylogenetic branching patterns can be used to distinguish these two mechanisms, we formulated a time‐dependent, but diversity‐independent model that matches the expected diversity through time of a DD model. We simulated phylogenies under each model and studied how well likelihood methods could recover the true diversification mode. Standard model selection criteria always recovered diversity dependence, even when it was not present. We correct for this bias by using a bootstrap method and find that neither model is decisively supported. This implies that the branching pattern of reconstructed trees contains insufficient information to detect the presence or absence of diversity dependence. We advocate that tests encompassing additional data, for example, traits or range distributions, are needed to evaluate how diversity drives macroevolutionary trends.     

SYNDROME‐DRIVEN DIVERSIFICATION IN A MEDITERRANEAN ECOSYSTEM

Phylogenetic methods to detect lineage diversification have been traditionally used within a particular taxonomic clade, but rarely applied to detect local diversification. For understanding in situ diversification triggered by novel conditions it is necessary to focus on the time slice where such conditions occur. These new conditions may differentially affect the diversification rate of lineages with different morpho‐functional syndromes. A prominent example of these processes occurs in the Mediterranean Basin, where climate arising along the Tertiary/Quaternary transition acted as an environmental filter. In this context, lineages with different syndromes (sclerophyllous and nonsclerophyllous) are hypothesized to have different local diversification rates after the rise of the Mediterranean conditions. We used macroevolutionary methods of time‐dependent diversification on a calibrated local phylogeny accommodating topological and chronological uncertainty to test syndrome‐driven diversification in Mediterranean shrublands from the eastern Iberian Peninsula. We found phylogenetic evidence of higher speciation associated with the nonsclerophyllous syndrome, although extinction rates were similar between syndromes. Consequently a syndrome‐driven local diversification has occurred in shrublands under Mediterranean conditions. The results provide an example of how the integration of the environmental filter in a dated phylogeny may recreate the local history of lineages and help to explain assembly processes in Mediterranean ecosystems.     

How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

Into the Andes: multiple independent colonizations drive montane diversity in the Neotropical clearwing butterflies Godyridina

Understanding why species richness peaks along the Andes is a fundamental question in the study of Neotropical biodiversity. Several biogeographic and diversification scenarios have been proposed in the literature, but there is confusion about the processes underlying each scenario, and assessing their relative contribution is not straightforward. Here, we propose to refine these scenarios into a framework which evaluates four evolutionary mechanisms: higher speciation rate in the Andes, lower extinction rates in the Andes, older colonization times and higher colonization rates of the Andes from adjacent areas. We apply this framework to a species‐rich subtribe of Neotropical butterflies whose diversity peaks in the Andes, the Godyridina (Nymphalidae: Ithomiini). We generated a time‐calibrated phylogeny of the Godyridina and fitted time‐dependent diversification models. Using trait‐dependent diversification models and ancestral state reconstruction methods we then compared different biogeographic scenarios. We found strong evidence that the rates of colonization into the Andes were higher than the other way round. Those colonizations and the subsequent local diversification at equal rates in the Andes and in non‐Andean regions mechanically increased the species richness of Andean regions compared to that of non‐Andean regions (‘species‐attractor’ hypothesis). We also found support for increasing speciation rates associated with Andean lineages. Our work highlights the importance of the Andean slopes in repeatedly attracting non‐Andean lineages, most likely as a result of the diversity of habitats and/or host plants. Applying this analytical framework to other clades will bring important insights into the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the most species‐rich biodiversity hotspot on the planet.     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

Context‐dependent biotic interactions control plant abundance across altitudinal environmental gradients

Many biotic interactions influence community structure, yet most distribution models for plants have focused on plant competition or used only abiotic variables to predict plant abundance. Furthermore, biotic interactions are commonly context‐dependent across abiotic gradients. For example, plant–plant interactions can grade from competition to facilitation over temperature gradients. We used a hierarchical Bayesian framework to predict the abundances of 12 plant species across a mountain landscape and test hypotheses on the context‐dependency of biotic interactions over abiotic gradients. We combined field‐based estimates of six biotic interactions (foliar herbivory and pathogen damage, fungal root colonization, fossorial mammal disturbance, plant cover and plant diversity) with abiotic data on climate and soil depth, nutrients and moisture. All biotic interactions were significantly context‐dependent along temperature gradients. Results supported the stress gradient hypothesis: as abiotic stress increased, the strength or direction of the relationship between biotic variables and plant abundance generally switched from negative (suggesting suppressed plant abundance) to positive (suggesting facilitation/mutualism). For half of the species, plant cover was the best predictor of abundance, suggesting that the prior focus on plant–plant interactions is well‐justified. Explicitly incorporating the context‐dependency of biotic interactions generated novel hypotheses about drivers of plant abundance across abiotic gradients and may improve the accuracy of niche models.     

The phylogenetic signal of diversification rates

Hypotheses to explain the causes of diversity gradients have increasingly focused on the factors that actually change species numbers, namely speciation, extinction and dispersal. A common assumption of many of these hypotheses is that there should be phylogenetic signal in diversification rates, yet this assumption has rarely been tested explicitly. In this study, we compile a large data set including 328,219 species of plants, mammals, amphibians and squamates to assess the level of phylogenetic signal in their diversification rates. Significant phylogenetic signal was detected in all data sets, except for squamates, suggesting not only that closely related clades indeed might share similar diversification rates, but also that the level of phylogenetic signal might vary considerably between them. Moreover, there were intriguing differences among taxa in the rate of decay in phylogenetic autocorrelation over time, underscoring the existence of taxon-specific patterns of phylogenetic autocorrelation. These results have important implications for the development of more realistic models of species diversification.     

High speciation rate at temperate latitudes explains unusual diversity gradients in a clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Understanding the patterns of biodiversity through time and space is a challenging task. However, phylogeny‐based macroevolutionary models allow us to account and measure many of the processes responsible for diversity buildup, namely speciation and extinction. The general latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a well‐recognized pattern describing a decline in species richness from the equator polewards. Recent macroecological studies in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi have shown that their LDG is shifted, peaking at temperate rather than tropical latitudes. Here we investigate this phenomenon from a macroevolutionary perspective, focusing on a well‐sampled group of edible EM mushrooms from the genus Amanita—the Caesar's mushrooms, which follow similar diversity patterns. Our approach consisted in applying a suite of models including (1) nontrait‐dependent time‐varying diversification (Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures [BAMM]), (2) continuous trait‐dependent diversification (quantitative‐state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]), and (3) diversity‐dependent diversification. In short, results give strong support for high speciation rates at temperate latitudes (BAMM and QuaSSE). We also find some evidence for different diversity‐dependence thresholds in “temperate” and “tropical” subclades, and little differences in diversity due to extinction. We conclude that our analyses on the Caesar's mushrooms give further evidence of a temperate‐peaking LDG in EM fungi, highlighting the importance and the implications of macroevolutionary processes in explaining diversity gradients in microorganisms.     

Ecological controls of mammalian diversification vary with phylogenetic scale

Aim

Diversity dynamics remain controversial. Here, we examine these dynamics, together with the ecological factors governing them, across mammalian clades of different ages and sizes, representing different phylogenetic scales. Specifically, we investigate whether the dynamics are bounded or unbounded, biotically or abiotically regulated, stochastic or ecologically deterministic.

Location

Worldwide.

Time period

150 Myr.

Major taxa studied

Mammals.

Methods

Integrating the newest phylogenetic and distributional data by means of several distinct methods, we study the ecology of mammalian diversification within a predictive framework, inspired by classic theory. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of several classes of factors, including climate, topography, geographical area, rates of climatic‐niche evolution, and regional coexistence between related and unrelated species. Next, we determine whether the relative effects of these factors change systematically across clades representing different phylogenetic scales.

Results

We find that young clades diversify at approximately constant rates, medium‐sized clades show diversification slowdowns, and large clades are mostly saturated, suggesting that diversification dynamics change as clades grow and accumulate species. We further find that diversification slowdowns intensify with the degree of regional coexistence between related species, presumably because increased competition for regional resources suppresses the diversification process. The richness at which clades eventually saturate depends on climate; clades residing in tropical climates saturate at low richness, implying that niches become progressively densely packed towards the tropics.

Main conclusions

The diversification process is influenced by a variety of ecological factors, whose relative effects change across phylogenetic scales, producing scale‐dependent dynamics. Different segments of the same phylogeny might therefore support seemingly conflicting results (bounded or unbounded, biotically or abiotically regulated, stochastic or ecologically deterministic diversification), which might have contributed to several outstanding controversies in the field. These conflicts can be reconciled, however, when accounting for phylogenetic scale, which might, in turn, produce a more integrated understanding of global diversity dynamics.     

Time and environment explain the current richness distribution of non‐marine turtles worldwide

Ecological, historical, and evolutionary hypotheses are important to explain geographical diversity gradients in many clades, but few studies have combined them into a single analysis allowing a comparison of their relative importance. This study aimed to evaluate the relative importance of ecological, historical, and evolutionary hypotheses in explaining the current global distribution of non‐marine turtles, a group whose distribution patterns are still poorly explored. We used data from distribution range maps of 336 species of non‐marine turtles, environmental layers, and phylogeny to obtain richness estimates of these animals in 2° × 2° cells and predictors related to ecological, evolutionary and historical hypotheses driving richness patterns. Then we used a path analysis to evaluate direct and indirect effects of the predictors on turtle richness. Ancestral area reconstruction was also performed in order to evaluate the influence of time‐for‐speciation in the current diversity of the group. We found that environmental variables had the highest direct effects on non‐marine turtle richness, whereas diversification rates and area available in the last 55 million yr minimally influenced turtle distributions. We found evidence for the time‐for‐speciation effect, since regions colonized early were generally richer than recently colonized regions. In addition, regions with a high number of colonization events had a higher number of turtle species. Our results suggested that ecological processes may influence non‐marine turtle richness independent of diversification rates, but they are probably related to dispersal abilities. However, colonization time was also an important component that must be taken into account. Finally, our study provided additional support for the importance of ecological (climate and productivity) and historical (time‐for‐speciation and dispersal) processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns.     

Do Mediterranean‐type ecosystems have a common history?—Insights from the Buckthorn family (Rhamnaceae)

Mediterranean‐type ecosystems (MTEs) are remarkable in their species richness and endemism, but the processes that have led to this diversity remain enigmatic. Here, we hypothesize that continent‐dependent speciation and extinction rates have led to disparity in diversity between the five MTEs of the world: the Cape, California, Mediterranean Basin, Chile, and Western Australia. To test this hypothesis, we built a phylogenetic tree for 280 Rhamnaceae species, estimated divergence times using eight fossil calibrations, and used Bayesian methods and simulations to test for differences in diversification rates. Rhamnaceae lineages in MTEs generally show higher diversification rates than elsewhere, but speciation and extinction dynamics show a pattern of continent‐dependence. We detected high speciation and extinction rates in California and significantly lower extinction rates in the Cape and Western Australia. The independent colonization of four of five MTEs may have occurred conterminously in the Oligocene/Early Miocene, but colonization of the Mediterranean Basin happened later, in the Late Miocene. This suggests that the in situ radiations of these clades were initiated before the onset of winter rainfall in these regions. These results indicate independent evolutionary histories of Rhamnaceae in MTEs, possibly related to the intensity of climate oscillations and the geological history of the regions.     

Rate heterogeneity across Squamata,misleading ancestral state reconstruction and the importance of proper null model specification

The binary‐state speciation and extinction (BiSSE) model has been used in many instances to identify state‐dependent diversification and reconstruct ancestral states. However, recent studies have shown that the standard procedure of comparing the fit of the BiSSE model to constant‐rate birth–death models often inappropriately favours the BiSSE model when diversification rates vary in a state‐independent fashion. The newly developed HiSSE model enables researchers to identify state‐dependent diversification rates while accounting for state‐independent diversification at the same time. The HiSSE model also allows researchers to test state‐dependent models against appropriate state‐independent null models that have the same number of parameters as the state‐dependent models being tested. We reanalyse two data sets that originally used BiSSE to reconstruct ancestral states within squamate reptiles and reached surprising conclusions regarding the evolution of toepads within Gekkota and viviparity across Squamata. We used this new method to demonstrate that there are many shifts in diversification rates across squamates. We then fit various HiSSE submodels and null models to the state and phylogenetic data and reconstructed states under these models. We found that there is no single, consistent signal for state‐dependent diversification associated with toepads in gekkotans or viviparity across all squamates. Our reconstructions show limited support for the recently proposed hypotheses that toepads evolved multiple times independently in Gekkota and that transitions from viviparity to oviparity are common in Squamata. Our results highlight the importance of considering an adequate pool of models and null models when estimating diversification rate parameters and reconstructing ancestral states.     

Has past climate change affected cold‐specialized species differentially through space and time?

Quaternary climate change has been strongly linked to distributional shifts and recent species diversification. Montane species, in particular, have experienced enhanced isolation and rapid genetic divergence during glacial fluctuations, and these processes have resulted in a disproportionate number of neo‐endemic species forming in high‐elevation habitats. In temperate montane environments, a general model of alpine population history is well supported, where cold‐specialized species track favourable climate conditions downslope during glacial episodes and upslope during warmer interglacial periods, which leads to a climate‐driven population or species diversification pump. However, it remains unclear how geography mediates distributional changes and whether certain episodes of glacial history have differentially impacted rates of diversification. We address these questions by examining phylogenomic data in a North American clade of flightless, cold‐specialized insects, the ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae: Grylloblatta). These low‐vagility organisms have the potential to reveal highly localized refugia and patterns of spatial recolonization, as well as a longer history of in situ diversification. Using continuous phylogeographic analysis of species groups, we show that all species tend to retreat to nearby low‐elevation habitats across western North America during episodes of glaciation, but species at high latitude exhibit larger distributional shifts. Lineage diversification was examined over the course of the Neogene and Quaternary periods, with statistical analysis supporting a direct association between climate variation and diversification rate. Major increases in lineage diversification appear to be correlated with warm and dry periods, rather than with extreme glacial events. Finally, we identify substantial cryptic diversity among ice crawlers, leading to high endemism across their range. This diversity provides new insights into highly localized glacial refugia for cold‐specialized species across western North America.     

Density-dependent cladogenesis in birds

A characteristic signature of adaptive radiation is a slowing of the rate of speciation toward the present. On the basis of molecular phylogenies, studies of single clades have frequently found evidence for a slowdown in diversification rate and have interpreted this as evidence for density dependent speciation. However, we demonstrated via simulation that large clades are expected to show stronger slowdowns than small clades, even if the probability of speciation and extinction remains constant through time. This is a consequence of exponential growth: clades, which, by chance, diversify at above the average rate early in their history, will tend to be large. They will also tend to regress back to the average diversification rate later on, and therefore show a slowdown. We conducted a meta-analysis of the distribution of speciation events through time, focusing on sequence-based phylogenies for 45 clades of birds. Thirteen of the 23 clades (57%) that include more than 20 species show significant slowdowns. The high frequency of slowdowns observed in large clades is even more extreme than expected under a purely stochastic constant-rate model, but is consistent with the adaptive radiation model. Taken together, our data strongly support a model of density-dependent speciation in birds, whereby speciation slows as ecological opportunities and geographical space place limits on clade growth.     

Is regional species diversity bounded or unbounded?

Two conflicting hypotheses have been proposed to explain large‐scale species diversity patterns and dynamics. The unbounded hypothesis proposes that regional diversity depends only on time and diversification rate and increases without limit. The bounded hypothesis proposes that ecological constraints place upper limits on regional diversity and that diversity is usually close to its limit. Recent evidence from the fossil record, phylogenetic analysis, biogeography, and phenotypic disparity during lineage diversification suggests that diversity is constrained by ecological processes but that it is rarely asymptotic. Niche space is often unfilled or can be more finely subdivided and still permit coexistence, and new niche space is often created before ecological limits are reached. Damped increases in diversity over time are the prevalent pattern, suggesting the need for a new ‘damped increase hypothesis'. The damped increase hypothesis predicts that diversity generally increases through time but that its rate of increase is often slowed by ecological constraints. However, slowing due to niche limitation must be distinguished from other possible mechanisms creating similar patterns. These include sampling artifacts, the inability to detect extinctions or declines in clade diversity with some methods, the distorting effects of correlated speciation‐extinction dynamics, the likelihood that opportunities for allopatric speciation will vary in space and time, and the role of undetected natural enemies in reducing host ranges and thus slowing speciation rates. The taxonomic scope of regional diversity studies must be broadened to include all ecologically similar species so that ecological constraints may be accurately inferred. The damped increase hypothesis suggests that information on evolutionary processes such as time‐for‐speciation and intrinsic diversification rates as well as ecological factors will be required to explain why regional diversity varies among times, places and taxa.     

Explaining disparities in species richness between Mediterranean floristic regions: a case study in Gladiolus (Iridaceae)

Aim The causes of geographical variation in species richness in clades that do not follow the latitudinal diversity gradient have rarely been investigated. Here, we examine spatial asymmetries of diversity in Gladiolus (Iridaceae), a large genus (> 260 species) that is present in two mediterranean climate biomes: the Cape of southern Africa (106 species) and the Mediterranean Basin (7 species). Despite convergence of climatic conditions between the two regions, the species density of Gladiolus is over one order of magnitude higher in the Cape than in the Mediterranean Basin. We investigate whether the diversity disparities observed in the genus are better explained by recent colonization of species‐poor areas (temporal hypothesis) or by differential rates of diversification (evolutionary hypothesis). Location Africa, Madagascar and Eurasia Methods We employ a recently developed Bayesian method for the estimation of diversification rates and a biogeographical optimization approach within a phylogenetic framework. Results In Gladiolus, the ‘diversity anomaly’ between the two Mediterranean climate regions cannot be explained solely by the time available for speciation in the Cape, but is also due to locally reduced rates of diversification in the Mediterranean Basin. Furthermore, high overall diversity in southern Africa stems from an ancient origin in the Cape allied with high rates of diversification in the summer‐rainfall region of the subcontinent. Main conclusions Both evolutionary and temporal hypotheses must be taken into account in order to explain the diversity anomaly between the Mediterranean Basin and the Cape. Our results suggest that regions at comparable latitudes and/or with similar climate may not converge in diversity levels due to heterogeneity of diversification rates and contrasting biogeographical histories.