Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.     

Local‐scale biotic interactions embedded in macroscale climate drivers suggest Eltonian noise hypothesis distribution patterns for an invasive grass

A hierarchical view of niche relations reconciles the scale‐dependent effects of abiotic and biotic processes on species distribution patterns and underlies most current approaches to distribution modeling. A key prediction of this framework is that the effects of biotic interactions will be averaged out at macroscales – an idea termed the Eltonian noise hypothesis (ENH). We test this prediction by quantifying regional variation in local abiotic and biotic niche relations and assess the role of macroclimate in structuring biotic interactions, using a non‐native invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, in its introduced range. Consistent with hierarchical niche relations and the ENH, macroclimate structures local biotic interactions, while local abiotic relations are regionally conserved. Biotic interactions suppress M. vimineum in drier climates but have little effect in wetter climates. A similar approach could be used to identify the macroclimatic conditions under which biotic interactions affect the accuracy of local predictions of species distributions.     

Mutualist‐mediated effects on species' range limits across large geographic scales

Understanding the processes determining species range limits is central to predicting species distributions under climate change. Projected future ranges are extrapolated from distribution models based on climate layers, and few models incorporate the effects of biotic interactions on species' distributions. Here, we show that a positive species interaction ameliorates abiotic stress, and has a profound effect on a species' range limits. Combining field surveys of 92 populations, 10 common garden experiments throughout the range, species distribution models and greenhouse experiments, we show that mutualistic fungal endophytes ameliorate drought stress and broaden the geographic range of their native grass host Bromus laevipes by thousands of square kilometres (~ 20% larger) into drier habitats. Range differentiation between fungal‐associated and fungal‐free grasses was comparable to species‐level range divergence of congeners, indicating large impacts on range limits. Positive biotic interactions may be underappreciated in determining species' ranges and species' responses to future climates across large geographic scales.     

Evolutionarily stable range limits set by interspecific competition

A combination of abiotic and biotic factors probably restricts the range of many species. Recent evolutionary models and tests of those models have asked how a gradual change in environmental conditions can set the range limit, with a prominent idea being that gene flow disrupts local adaptation. We investigate how biotic factors, explicitly competition for limited resources, result in evolutionarily stable range limits even in the absence of the disruptive effect of gene flow. We model two competing species occupying different segments of the resource spectrum. If one segment of the resource spectrum declines across space, a species that specializes on that segment can be driven to extinction, even though in the absence of competition it would evolve to exploit other abundant resources and so be saved. The result is that a species range limit is set in both evolutionary and ecological time, as the resources associated with its niche decline. Factors promoting this outcome include: (i) inherent gaps in the resource distribution, (ii) relatively high fitness of the species when in its own niche, and low fitness in the alternative niche, even when resource abundances are similar in each niche, (iii) strong interspecific competition, and (iv) asymmetric interspecific competition. We suggest that these features are likely to be common in multispecies communities, thereby setting evolutionarily stable range limits.     

Maladaptation beyond a geographic range limit driven by antagonistic and mutualistic biotic interactions across an abiotic gradient

Species’ geographic range limits often result from maladaptation to the novel environments beyond the range margin. However, we rarely know which aspects of the n‐dimensional environment are driving this maladaptation. Especially of interest is the influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in delimiting species’ distributions. We conducted a 2‐year reciprocal transplant experiment involving manipulations of the biotic environment to explore how spatiotemporal gradients in precipitation, fatal mammalian herbivory, and pollination affected lifetime fitness within and beyond the range of the California annual plant, Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. In the first, drier year of the experiment, fitness outside the range edge was limited mainly by low precipitation, and there was some evidence for local adaptation within the range. In the second, wetter year, we did not observe abiotic limitations to plant fitness outside the range; instead biotic interactions, especially herbivory, limited fitness outside the range. Together, protection from herbivory and supplementation of pollen resulted in three‐ to sevenfold increases in lifetime fitness outside the range margin in the abiotically benign year. Overall, our work demonstrates the importance of biotic interactions, particularly as they interact with the abiotic environment, in determining fitness beyond geographic range boundaries.     

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution of trout and salmon along a longitudinal stream gradient

Synopsis We examined the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution, abundance, and condition of salmonid fishes along a stream gradient. We observed a longitudinal change in fish distribution with native cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki utah, and introduced brown trout, Salmo trutta, demonstrating a distinct pattern of allopatry. Cutthroat trout dominated high elevation reaches, while reaches at lower elevations were dominated by brown trout. A transition zone between these populations was associated with lower total trout abundance, consistent changes in temperature and discharge, and differences in dietary preference. Variation in cutthroat trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of brown trout and diel temperature, whereas variation in brown trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of cutthroat trout and discharge. These results suggest the potential for condition-mediated competition between the two species. The results from our study can aid biologists in prioritizing conservation activities and in developing robust management strategies for cutthroat trout.     

The role of climate for the range limits of parapatric European land salamanders

Abrupt range limits of parapatric species may serve as a model system to understand the factors that determine species’ range borders. Theory suggests that parapatric range limits can be caused by abiotic conditions along environmental gradients, biotic interactions or a combination of both. Geographic ranges of the parapatric salamanders, Salamandra salamandra and S. atra, meet in small contact zones in the European Alps and to date, the cause of parapatry and the restricted range of S. atra remain elusive. We combine multivariate approaches and climatic data analysis to explore niche differentiation among the two salamanders with respect to the available climatic environment at their contact zones. Our purpose is to evaluate whether climatic conditions explain the species’ sharp range limits or if biotic interactions may play a role for range delimitation. Analyses were carried out in three contact zones in Switzerland to assess possible geographic variation. Our results indicate that both species occur at localities with different climatic conditions as well as the presence of a strong climatic gradient across the species’ range limits. Although the species’ climatic niches differ moderately (with a wider niche breadth for S. atra), interspecific niche overlap is found. Comparisons among the contact zones confirm geographic variation in the species’ climatic niches as well as in the conditions within the geographically available space. Our results suggest that the change in climatic conditions along the recognized gradient represents a determining factor for species’ range limits within contact zones. However, our analyses of geographic variation in climatic conditions reveal that both salamander species can occur in a much wider range of conditions than observed within contact zones. This finding and the interspecific climatic niche overlap within each contact zone provides indirect evidence that biotic interactions (likely competition) between the two species may also determine their range limits.     

Interspecific interactions and range limits: contrasts among interaction types

There is a great deal of interest in the effects of biotic interactions on geographic distributions. Nature contains many different types of biotic interactions (notably mutualism, commensalism, predation, amensalism, and competition), and it is difficult to compare the effects of multiple interaction types on species’ distributions. To resolve this problem, we analyze a general, flexible model of pairwise biotic interactions that can describe all interaction types. In the absence of strong positive feedback, a species’ ability to be present depends on its ability to increase in numbers when it is rare and the species it is interacting with is at equilibrium. This insight leads to counterintuitive conclusions. Notably, we often predict the same range limit when the focal species experiences competition, predation, or amensalism. Similarly, we often predict the same range margin or when the species experiences mutualism, commensalism, or benefits from prey. In the presence of strong positive density-dependent feedback, different species interactions produce different range limits in our model. In all cases, the abiotic environment can indirectly influence the impact of biotic interactions on range limits. We illustrate the implications of this observation by analyzing a stress gradient where biotic interactions are harmful in benign environments but beneficial in stressful environments. Our results emphasize the need to consider the effects of all biotic interactions on species’ range limits and provide a systematic comparison of when biotic interactions affect distributions.     

Role of biotic interactions and physical factors in determining the distribution of marsh species along an estuarine salinity gradient

Understanding the mechanisms that shape plant distribution patterns is a major goal in ecology. We investigated the role of biotic interactions (competition and facilitation) and abiotic factors in creating horizontal plant zonation along salinity gradients in the Elbe estuary. We conducted reciprocal transplant experiments with four dominant species from salt and tidal freshwater marshes at two tidal elevations. Ten individuals of each species were transplanted as sods to the opposing marsh type and within their native marsh (two sites each). Transplants were placed at the centre of 9‐m² plots along a line parallel to the river bank. In order to disentangle abiotic and biotic influences, we set up plots with and without neighbouring vegetation, resulting in five replicates per site. Freshwater species (Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis) transplanted to salt marshes performed poorly regardless of whether neighbouring vegetation was present or not, although 50–70% of the transplants did survive. Growth of Phragmites transplants was impaired also by competition in freshwater marshes. Salt marsh species (Spartina anglica and Puccinellia maritima) had extremely low biomass when transplanted to freshwater marshes and 80–100% died in the presence of neighbours. Without neighbours, biomass of salt marsh species in freshwater marshes was similar to or higher than that in salt marshes. Our results indicate that salt marsh species are precluded from freshwater marshes by competition, whereas freshwater species are excluded from salt marshes by physical stress. Thus, our study provides the first experimental evidence from a European estuary for the general theory that species boundaries along environmental gradients are determined by physical factors towards the harsh end and by competitive ability towards the benign end of the gradient. We generally found no significant impact of competition in salt marshes, indicating a shift in the importance of competition along the estuarine gradient.     

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large‐scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (~9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (~20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo‐climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.     

Ecological correlates of the distribution limits of two poeciliid species along a salinity gradient

Identifying the environmental factors responsible for the formation of a species' distribution limit is challenging because organisms interact in complex ways with their environments. However, the use of statistical niche models in combination with the analysis of phenotypic variation along environmental gradients can help to reduce such complexity and identify a subset of candidate factors. In the present study, we used such approaches to describe and identify factors responsible for the parapatric distribution of two closely‐related livebearer fish species along a salinity gradient in the lowlands of Trinidad, West Indies. The downstream distribution limits of Poecilia reticulata were strongly correlated with the brackish–freshwater interface. We did not observe significant phenotypic variation in life‐history traits for this species when comparing marginal with more central populations, suggesting that abrupt changes in conditions at the brackish–freshwater interface limit its distribution. By contrast, Poecilia picta was present across a wide range of salinities, although it gradually disappeared from upstream freshwater localities. In addition, P. picta populations exhibited an increase in offspring size in localities where they coexist with P. reticulata, suggesting a role for interspecific competition. The parapatric distribution of these two species, suggests that P. reticulata distributions are limited by an abiotic factor (salinity), whereas P. picta is limited by a biotic factor (interspecific competition). Similar parapatric patterns have been previously described in other systems, suggesting they might be a common pattern in nature. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Spatial structure and dynamics of breeding bird populations at a distribution margin,southern California

Aim Local‐scale processes at species distribution margins can affect larger‐scale distribution dynamics, but are rarely studied. The objective of this research was to elucidate the nature of distribution limits by studying the comparative structure, dynamics and environmental associations of breeding bird populations at their distribution margin. We hypothesized that climate is principally responsible for setting distribution limits, whereas biotic habitat features are more strongly associated with distribution patterns within the range. Location Southern California, USA. Methods During 2005–2007 we studied the distribution patterns of breeding birds in three study areas, each spanning a low‐elevation (200–1800 m) desert scrub‐to‐chaparral gradient. We used logistic regression with hierarchical partitioning to assess the independent effects of environmental variables (e.g. climate versus habitat) on distributions. We tested for shifts in the relative importance of these environmental variables in determining distribution limits versus within‐range patterns, and we also compared higher‐ and lower‐elevation groups of species. Results Distribution patterns were highly variable among species, but were remarkably static over the three study areas and 3‐year study period. Across species, habitat floristic variables performed relatively well at explaining distribution patterns. For higher‐elevation species (chaparral birds), climate was relatively important in setting their lower distribution limits, and there was a shift to a greater importance of biotic habitat (mainly habitat structural variables) for determining within‐range patterns. Relationships were more mixed for lower‐elevation species (desert scrub birds), but with respect to distribution limits, biotic habitat variables tended to be more important relative to climate than we observed for chaparral birds. Main conclusions Along this warm, arid elevational gradient, higher‐elevation chaparral birds are more limited by climate at their lower margin than are lower‐elevation desert birds at their upper margin, suggesting that climate plays a strong role (relative to other values) in excluding non‐desert birds from desert. However, given the strong differences among species, predictive distribution models will need to be individually tailored, and for most species biotic habitat variables were of greater importance than climate in determining limits. This research highlights the usefulness of studying environmental relationships at distribution margins and the importance of considering biotic relationships in forecasting distribution shifts under changing climates.     

Inclusion of biotic stress (consumer pressure) alters predictions from the stress gradient hypothesis

1.  The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts a shift from net negative interactions in benign environments towards net positive in harsh environments in ecological communities. While several studies found support for the SGH, others found evidence against it, leading to a debate on how nature and strength of species interactions change along stress gradients, and to calls for new empirical and theoretical work.
2.  In the latest attempt in this journal, it is successfully argued how the SGH should be expanded by considering different life strategies of species (stress tolerance versus competitive ability) and characteristics of abiotic stress (resource versus non-resource based) over wider stress gradients (opposed to low–high contrasts), but the crucial role of biotic stress by consumers is largely ignored in this refinement.
3.  We point out that consumers strongly alter the outcome of species interactions in benign and harsh environments, and show how inclusion of consumer-incurred biotic stress alters the predicted outcome of interactions along resource- and non-resource-based stress gradients for stress-tolerant and competitive benefactors and beneficiaries.
4.   Synthesis. New studies should include stress gradients consisting of both abiotic and biotic components to disentangle their impacts, and to improve our understanding of how species interactions change along environmental gradients.     

Testing for local adaptation and evolutionary potential along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila: beyond laboratory estimates

Predicting how species will respond to the rapid climatic changes predicted this century is an urgent task. Species distribution models (SDMs) use the current relationship between environmental variation and species’ abundances to predict the effect of future environmental change on their distributions. However, two common assumptions of SDMs are likely to be violated in many cases: (i) that the relationship of environment with abundance or fitness is constant throughout a species’ range and will remain so in future and (ii) that abiotic factors (e.g. temperature, humidity) determine species’ distributions. We test these assumptions by relating field abundance of the rainforest fruit fly Drosophila birchii to ecological change across gradients that include its low and high altitudinal limits. We then test how such ecological variation affects the fitness of 35 D. birchii families transplanted in 591 cages to sites along two altitudinal gradients, to determine whether genetic variation in fitness responses could facilitate future adaptation to environmental change. Overall, field abundance was highest at cooler, high‐altitude sites, and declined towards warmer, low‐altitude sites. By contrast, cage fitness (productivity) increased towards warmer, lower‐altitude sites, suggesting that biotic interactions (absent from cages) drive ecological limits at warmer margins. In addition, the relationship between environmental variation and abundance varied significantly among gradients, indicating divergence in ecological niche across the species’ range. However, there was no evidence for local adaptation within gradients, despite greater productivity of high‐altitude than low‐altitude populations when families were reared under laboratory conditions. Families also responded similarly to transplantation along gradients, providing no evidence for fitness trade‐offs that would favour local adaptation. These findings highlight the importance of (i) measuring genetic variation in key traits under ecologically relevant conditions, and (ii) considering the effect of biotic interactions when predicting species’ responses to environmental change.     

Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability

Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant–plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.     

Salinity mediates the competitive interactions between invasive mosquitofish and an endangered fish

The interplay of abiotic factors and competition has a long history in ecology, although there are very few studies on the interaction of salinity and competition in fish. Mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) are among the most invasive fish worldwide, with well documented ecological impacts on several taxa such as amphibians and small native fish. It has been previously hypothesized, based on field observations, that salinity limits the invasive success of mosquitofish and provides a competitive refuge for Mediterranean cyprinodonts. We experimentally tested this hypothesis by examining the agonistic behaviour and food competition between mosquitofish and an endangered native cyprinodont (Aphanius fasciatus) at three salinities (0, 15, 25‰). Intraspecific aggressive behaviour for both species was not significantly affected by salinity. As salinity increased, mosquitofish decreased their aggressive behaviour towards cyprinodonts and captured less prey. In contrast, the cyprinodonts did not change their behaviour with different salinity treatments, with the possible exception of increased defensive acts in higher salinities, but captured more prey with increasing salinity because of the reduced efficiency of mosquitofish. Our study confirms previous field observations that salinity limits the invasive success of mosquitofish and provides one of the few experimental demonstrations that it may mediate behavioural and competitive interactions between fish species. Condition-specific competition of mosquitofish might be expected with other species and ecosystems worldwide and illustrates the importance of integrating biotic and abiotic factors in the study of interspecific interactions.     

Behavior influences range limits and patterns of coexistence across an elevational gradient in tropical birds

Does competition influence patterns of coexistence between closely related taxa? Here we address this question by analyzing patterns of range overlap between related species of birds (‘sister pairs’) co‐occurring on a tropical elevational gradient. We explicitly contrast the behavioral dimension of interspecific competition (interference competition) with similarity in resource acquisition traits (exploitative competition). Specifically, we ask whether elevational range overlap in 118 sister pairs that live along the Manu Transect in southeastern Peru is predicted by proxies for competition (intraspecific territorial behavior) or niche divergence (beak divergence and divergence times, an estimate of evolutionary age). We find that close relatives that defend year‐round territories tend to live in non‐overlapping elevational distributions, while close relatives that do not defend territories tend to broadly overlap in elevational distribution. In contrast, neither beak divergence nor evolutionary age was associated with patterns of range limitation. We interpret these findings as evidence that behavioral interactions – particularly direct territorial aggression – can be important in setting elevational range limits and preventing coexistence of closely related species, though this depends upon the extent to which intraspecific territorial behavior can be extended to territorial interactions between species. Our results suggest that interference competition can be an important driver of species range limits in diverse assemblages, and thus highlight the importance of considering behavioral dimensions of the niche in macroecological studies.     

Herbivory and pollen limitation at the upper elevational range limit of two forest understory plants of eastern North America

Studies of species' range limits focus most often on abiotic factors, although the strength of biotic interactions might also vary along environmental gradients and have strong demographic effects. For example, pollinator abundance might decrease at range limits due to harsh environmental conditions, and reduced plant density can reduce attractiveness to pollinators and increase or decrease herbivory. We tested for variation in the strength of pollen limitation and herbivory by ungulates along a gradient leading to the upper elevational range limits of Trillium erectum (Melanthiaceae) and Erythronium americanum (Liliaceae) in Mont Mégantic National Park, Québec, Canada. In T. erectum, pollen limitation was higher at the range limit, but seed set decreased only slightly with elevation and only in one of two years. In contrast, herbivory of T. erectum increased from <10% at low elevations to >60% at the upper elevational range limit. In E. americanum, we found no evidence of pollen limitation despite a significant decrease in seed set with elevation, and herbivory was low across the entire gradient. Overall, our results demonstrate the potential for relatively strong negative interactions (herbivory) and weak positive interactions (pollination) at plant range edges, although this was clearly species specific. To the extent that these interactions have important demographic consequences—highly likely for herbivory on Trillium, based on previous studies—such interactions might play a role in determining plant species' range limits along putatively climatic gradients.     

Microhabitat selection in the common lizard: implications of biotic interactions,age, sex,local processes,and model transferability among populations

Modeling species' habitat requirements are crucial to assess impacts of global change, for conservation efforts and to test mechanisms driving species presence. While the influence of abiotic factors has been widely examined, the importance of biotic factors and biotic interactions, and the potential implications of local processes are not well understood. Testing their importance requires additional knowledge and analyses at local habitat scale. Here, we recorded the locations of species presence at the microhabitat scale and measured abiotic and biotic parameters in three different common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) populations using a standardized sampling protocol. Thereafter, space use models and cross‐evaluations among populations were run to infer local processes and estimate the importance of biotic parameters, biotic interactions, sex, and age. Biotic parameters explained more variation than abiotic parameters, and intraspecific interactions significantly predicted the spatial distribution. Significant differences among populations in the relationship between abiotic parameters and lizard distribution, and the greater model transferability within populations than between populations are in line with effects predicted by local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity. These results underline the importance of including biotic parameters and biotic interactions in space use models at the population level. There were significant differences in space use between sexes, and between adults and yearlings, the latter showing no association with the measured parameters. Consequently, predictive habitat models at the population level taking into account different sexes and age classes are required to understand a specie's ecological requirements and to allow for precise conservation strategies. Our study therefore stresses that future predictive habitat models at the population level and their transferability should take these parameters into account.     

Climate-driven,but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.