Are we overestimating recovery of sturgeon populations using mark/recapture surveys?

Mark‐recaptures studies are often conducted to monitor trends in sturgeon populations. However, many of these studies experience low recapture rates, minimal movement between marking‐recapture phases suggesting that sturgeon as a group are not conducive to mark‐recapture techniques. In this study, two mark‐recapture studies that were conducted differently were reviewed. A study was conducted on the Mattagami River using random nets set throughout the study area in both the mark and recapture phases. The other study was conducted on Lake of the Woods and marked sturgeon in tributaries during the spawning period and the recapture phase within the lake and river during the summer foraging period using random nets sets. Sturgeon's conduciveness to mark‐recapture studies was assessed on the Mattagami River mark‐recapture study by determining detection probability (p) using a hierarchical Bayesian model with data augmentation among three effects: individual effect, temporal effects, and behavioural response effects. Detection probability was constant over individuals and temporally suggesting model M₀ (Otis, Burnham, White, & Anderson, 1978 ) was suitable for lake sturgeon in the Mattagami River; only the M₀ would converge for the Lake of the Woods study. For this study, the assumption that “all individuals have the same probability of being captured during the marking phase” was believed to have been violated given approximately 16%–20% of adult Lake Sturgeon from a population spawn within a year. A population estimate accounting for p provided estimates 56% lower than calculated by a Chapman modification of the Peterson estimate for a closed population. Bias was believed to have been introduced as the Lake of the Woods population did not account for the non‐spawning adults that were encountered during the recapture phase and not vulnerable during the initial marking phase. This was not unique to the Lake of the Woods study as other sturgeon studies, especially multi‐year, assumes a closed population which potentially biased estimates and overestimated their recovery.     

Fort Peck paddlefish population survival and abundance in the Missouri River

Excessive fishing pressure can induce population declines or complete collapse of fisheries. Unless commercial and recreational fisheries for K-selected fishes, or those with slow growth and late maturation, are carefully managed, declines in abundance or fishery collapse is probable. Paddlefish Polyodon spathula,are a K-selected species that experienced historical declines in abundance as a result of habitat degradation and overfishing. Mark-recapture studies are well-suited for long-lived fishes by providing information on population density and vital rates. For sustainable commercial or recreational fisheries targeting species such as the paddlefish, managers require accurate estimates of population vital rates including survival, abundance, and exploitation. We used a Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (MFWP) mark-recapture dataset and modified Jolly-Seber (POPAN) models to estimate survival, recapture, probability of entry, and abundance of 8,518 tagged paddlefish over a 25-year period. With many supporting estimates including stable survival (0.92 for females, mean of 0.82 for males), low exploitation rates (means of 2.6% for females and 2.9% for males), and stable abundance estimates (25-year mean of 12,309 individuals for both sexes), the Fort Peck paddlefish population appears to be stable and well-managed over the past 25 years. Presently, this is the only study focused on paddlefish in North America that has estimated survival and abundance for both male and female paddlefish using contemporary analyses. This research provided a unique opportunity to highlight that the effort exerted by management agencies to collect long-term field data is extremely useful to our understanding of fish populations and management.     

An integrated population model for a long‐lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods

We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, and demonstrate how this type of model can be used to extract more information from the data and separate different sources of variability in population estimates. Our model combines individual mark–recapture data with population counts and harvesting data within a Bayesian model framework, and accounts for observation error, environmental and demographic stochasticity, and age structure. From this model we obtain annual estimates of age‐specific population size, survival and fecundity. The model provides estimates of age structure at a finer scale than that found in the census data, and enables us to estimate survival for the period before calves are first caught and marked, i.e. before they enter the individual mark–recapture data. The modeling framework provides an improved approach to studying age‐structured populations that are imperfectly censused and where the demography of only a sample of individuals is known. We use data from independent censuses of the same population to evaluate population estimates obtained from the model, and show that it is successful at correcting for different types of observation error. Based on our model results, we suggest that allocating resources to the collection of supplementary mark–recapture data could improve the reliability of population projections more than making regular population censuses as exhaustive as possible. Our work demonstrates how integrated Bayesian population modeling can be used to increase the amount of information extracted from collections of data, identifying and disentangling sources of variation in individual performance and population size. This represents an important step towards increasing the predictive ability of population growth models for long‐lived species experiencing changes in environmental conditions and harvesting regimes.     

Updated assessment of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon (Forbes & Richardson, 1905) survival in the lower Missouri River

As pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes & Richardson, 1905), natural reproduction and recruitment remains very minimal in the lower Missouri River from Gavins Point Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 1305.2) to the confluence with the Mississippi River (rkm 0.0), hatchery supplementation and river‐wide monitoring efforts have continued. Annual survival estimates of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon stocked in the lower Missouri River were previously estimated during 1994–2008. Low recapture rates prior to 2006 limited the data available to estimate survival, which resulted in considerable uncertainty for the estimate of annual survival of age‐1 fish. Therefore, the objective was to provide more precise estimates of annual survival of pallid sturgeon using five additional years of stocking and sampling. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model structure provided in program MARK was used to estimate the age‐specific survival estimates. Over 135 000 hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon were released during 1994–2011 and recaptured at a rate of 1.9%, whereby estimates for the annual survival of age‐0 (Ø = 0.048) and >age‐1 (Ø = 0.931) were similar to those previously reported, but the age‐1 (Ø = 0.403) survival estimate was 52% lower. Post hoc analysis using time‐specific survival estimates indicated lower survival for age‐1 fish post‐2003 year classes, relative to the pre‐2002 year classes. An analysis confirms that hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon continue to survive in the wild. However, low survival during the first 2 years of life is a management concern as efforts are aimed at maximizing genetic diversity and population growth. A follow‐up analysis also demonstrated the variability of capture rates and survival over time, which reinforces the need to continue to monitor and evaluate mark‐recapture data. The mark‐recapture efforts have provided demographic parameter estimates that remain a critical component for species recovery as these data are incorporated into population models.     

Extreme longevity in freshwater mussels revisited: sources of bias in age estimates derived from mark–recapture experiments

1. There may be bias associated with mark–recapture experiments used to estimate age and growth of freshwater mussels. Using subsets of a mark–recapture dataset for Quadrula pustulosa, I examined how age and growth parameter estimates are affected by (i) the range and skew of the data and (ii) growth reduction due to handling. I compared predictions from von Bertalanffy growth models based on mark–recapture data with direct observation of mussel age and growth inferred from validated shell rings. 2. Growth models based on a dataset that included observations from a wide range of length classes (spanning ≥ the upper 50% of the population length range) produced only slightly biased age estimates for small and medium‐sized individuals (overestimated by 1–2 years relative to estimates from validated shell rings) but estimates became increasingly biased for larger individuals. Growth models using data that included only observations of larger animals (< the upper 50% of length range) overestimated age for all length classes, and estimated maximum age was two to six times greater than the maximum age observed in the population (47 years). Similarly, growth models using a left‐skewed dataset overestimated age. 3. Reductions of growth due to repeated handling also resulted in overestimates of age. The estimated age of mussels that were handled in two consecutive years was as much as twice that of mussels that were handled only once over the same period. Assuming a constant reduction in the annual rate of growth, handling an individual for five consecutive years could result in an estimated age that is five times too high. 4. These findings show that mark–recapture methods have serious limitations for estimating mussel age and growth. A previous paper (Freshwater Biology, 46, 2001, 1349) presented longevity estimates for three mussel species that were an order of magnitude higher than estimates inferred from shell rings. Because those estimates of extreme longevity were based on mark–recapture methods and subject to multiple, additive sources of bias, they cannot be considered accurate representations of life span and cannot be used to conclude that traditional methods of bivalve ageing by interpretation of shell rings are flawed.     

Short‐term survival and dispersal of hatchery‐reared juvenile pallid sturgeon stocked in the channelized Missouri River

In the summer and fall of 2014, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission crews monitored juvenile pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes & Richardson, 1905) (age‐1 and age‐4) implanted with telemetry tags that were stocked in a side channel of the Missouri River in Nebraska, USA to gain knowledge into post‐stocking survival and dispersal. For this study, specific questions were asked: (i) what is the short‐term survival of stocked pallid sturgeon, (ii) do pallid sturgeon stocked in summer exhibit decreased survival rates due to increased water temperatures or high river discharge, and (iii) how quickly do pallid sturgeon disperse from a stocking site? Detection histories for two rounds were used to estimate apparent survival (Ø) and detection (p) rates using maximum likelihood estimators based on the standard mark‐recapture Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model structure within program MARK. Overall apparent survival was 98.6% and dispersal was rapid; therefore, moratoriums on stocking pallid sturgeon during summer months or during high flow events do not appear to be warranted.     

High Turnover Rates in Remnant Populations of the Harlequin Frog Atelopus cruciger (Bufonidae): Low Risk of Extinction?

Atelopus is among the most threatened of all amphibian genera. Most species of harlequin frogs disappeared more than two decades ago and only a few still exist. From ten critically endangered Atelopus species endemic to Venezuela, Atelopus cruciger is the only one that can be located at present. To assess the status of remnant populations of A. cruciger and to provide the demographic data for designing in situ management programs, we estimated: (1) the population size; (2) the apparent survival; and (3) the recruitment rates of one remnant population using mark‐recapture data. The adult population size varied (69–117), and this variation was not related to that of abundance indices based on visual counts at the river margins. Thus, caution is recommended when using visual counts as an index of abundance in Atelopus, because capture rates differ significantly among months and between seasons. Despite the observed variations, this population appears to be stable. Previous reports suggest that species of Atelopus are long‐lived. For populations of long‐lived species to remain approximately constant, recruitment must be low. Our mark‐recapture study, however, showed that adults tend to remain in the population for approximately 15 mo, but an average of 165 new frogs are recruited every year. Although immigration and emigration are possibilities, the site fidelity and the absence of nearby streams suggests that movement in and out of the study area is less important than births and deaths. Under the proposed hypothesis of a short life expectancy/high recruitment, the risk of extinction must be lower than previously thought.     

Dispersal of single‐ and double‐brood populations of the European earwig,Forficula auricularia: a mark‐recapture experiment

Quantitative information on dispersal of insects should be taken into consideration for making efficient pest management decisions. Such information was not available for the European earwig, Forficula auricularia L. (Dermaptera: Forficulidae), an important biocontrol agent in fruit orchards. A mark‐recapture experiment was carried out in Belgian orchards, where marked earwigs were released at a single point and recaptured after 1 month. Dispersal from this release point was analysed using an analytical formula of a simple diffusion model with disappearance (e.g., as a result of death) derived by Turchin & Thoeny (1993; Quantifying dispersal of southern pine beetles with mark‐recapture experiments and a diffusion model. Ecological Applications 3: 187) . The cumulative number of recaptured earwigs as a function of the distance of release was used to fit the model and estimate parameters. A derived expression, in terms of these parameters, was used to estimate the frequency distribution of the population, as the radius of a circle enclosing various proportions of the earwigs’ dispersal distances. In Belgium, populations of the European earwig can have two life‐history strategies, single‐ (SBP) and double‐brood populations (DBP). Therefore, mark‐recapture experiments were carried out on both population types. We fitted data from SBP (n = 10) and DBP (n = 16) successfully in both the diffusion model and in an exponential curve. Because of the biological relevance, estimates of the diffusion model were used for calculating the frequency distributions. Males and females dispersed the same distances. No differences were found between orchards with different spatial structures (apple and pear). According to literature data, mobility of earwigs is very low compared with other arthropods, which has consequences for the efficiency of biocontrol interventions, like mass releases of earwigs or the use of hedgerows for the establishment of healthy (source) populations. Quantitative results revealed that earwigs of SBP dispersed four times further than earwigs of double‐brood populations. For instance, 95% of the population remained within a radius of 28.6 m in SBP and 7.54 m in DBP.     

Who are we sampling? Apparent survival differs between methods in a secretive species

Survival is a fundamental parameter in population dynamics with increasing importance in the management and conservation strategies of wildlife populations. Survival probability in vertebrates is usually estimated by live‐encounter data obtained by means of physical mark–capture–recapture protocols. Non‐invasive acoustic marking relying on individual‐specific features of signals has been alternatively applied as a marking technique, especially in secretive species. Nevertheless, to date no research has compared survival rate estimates obtained by acoustic and physical marking. We estimated half‐yearly and annual survival and recapture rates of a secretive and threatened passerine, the Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti, using two separate live‐encounter data sets of males collected simultaneously by physical and acoustic marking in the same study area. The separate analysis of both methods led to different model structures, since transient individuals had to be accounted for in the acoustic marking but not in the physical marking data set. Furthermore, while reencounter probabilities did not differ between methods, survival estimates employing physical marking were lower than those obtained acoustically, especially between the postbreeding and the breeding period when the apparent survival of colour‐banded birds was twice as low as for acoustic marking. The combination of marking methods suggested the existence of different subsets of individuals differentially sampled within the population: whereas colour‐banded males seemed to represent the territorial fraction of the population, both resident and floater individuals were probably detected by acoustic marking. Using traditional mark–recapture methods exclusively could have misled our estimates of survival rates, potentially affecting prospective predictions of population dynamics. Acoustic marking has been poorly applied in mark–recapture studies, but might be a powerful complement to obtain accurate estimates of fundamental demographic parameters such as survival and dispersal.     

Validation of back‐calculated body lengths and timing of growth mark deposition in Hawaiian green sea turtles

Somatic growth rate data for wild sea turtles can provide insight into life‐stage durations, time to maturation, and total lifespan. When appropriately validated, the technique of skeletochronology allows prior growth rates of sea turtles to be calculated with considerably less time and labor than required by mark‐–recapture studies. We applied skeletochronology to 10 dead, stranded green turtles Chelonia mydas that had previously been measured, tagged, and injected with OTC (oxytetracycline) during mark–recapture studies in Hawaii for validating skeletochronological analysis. We tested the validity of back‐calculating carapace lengths (CLs) from diameters of LAGs (lines of arrested growth), which mark the outer boundaries of individual skeletal growth increments. This validation was achieved by comparing CLs estimated from measurements of the LAG proposed to have been deposited closest to the time of tagging to actual CLs measured at the time of tagging. Measureable OTC‐mark diameters in five turtles also allowed us to investigate the time of year when LAGs are deposited. We found no significant difference between CLs measured at tagging and those estimated through skeletochronology, which supports calculation of somatic growth rates by taking the difference between CLs estimated from successive LAG diameters in humerus bones for this species. Back‐calculated CLs associated with the OTC mark and growth mark deposited closest to tagging indicated that annual LAGs are deposited in the spring. The results of this validation study increase confidence in utilization of skeletochronology to rapidly obtain accurate age and growth data for green turtles.     

Effect of Tooth Removal on Recaptures of Raccoons

Abstract: Researchers have extensively used mark—recapture techniques to obtain information on demographic parameters of wildlife populations. However, researchers have recognized that a number of factors can influence capture probabilities of wildlife species, which in turn can bias mark—recapture estimates of demographic parameters. Tooth extraction, which is a commonly used technique in studies of mesopredator species to obtain precise age estimates and to monitor the use of vaccine baits, is an aspect of animal handling that clearly might affect the recapture probability of individuals. However, the effect that tooth removal has on the individual recapture probabilities of wildlife species is unknown. During 2005, we trapped and marked 91 raccoons (Procyon lotor) in northern Indiana, USA, as part of a mark—recapture study designed specifically to determine if tooth extractions have an effect on recapture probabilities of individuals. We performed tooth extractions on 50% of the raccoons at the time of capture, and we attempted to balance tooth extractions with respect to sex and age of raccoons. We used logistic regression to model the effects of sex, age, and tooth removal on recapture probabilities, and we used Mann—Whitney U-tests to examine the effect of tooth removal on the number of times we recaptured individuals. The probability of recapture differed between sexes but did not differ as a function of tooth removal or among age classes. In addition, we failed to detect any difference in the mean number of times that we recaptured raccoons between the tooth removed and non—tooth-removed groups. Our results suggest that managers can use tooth extractions as an effective management tool without biasing population estimates or compromising other management objectives.     

Mark—Recapture Accurately Estimates Census for Tuatara,a Burrowing Reptile

Abstract: Estimates of population size are necessary for effective management of threatened and endangered species, but accurate estimation is often difficult when species are cryptic. We evaluated effectiveness of mark–recapture techniques using the Lincoln–Peterson estimator for predicting true census size of a population of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), a burrowing reptile that is a conservation priority in New Zealand. We found that Lincoln–Peterson estimates (NŇ = 85) were accurate for predicting the census size (N = 87) after only a 3-day mark–recapture survey. We recommend this method as a cost-effective way to accurately estimate population size for isolated, inaccessible tuatara populations, because it requires limited personnel, expertise, and time, and has low environmental impact on fragile sites.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

Summary Ecologists applying capture–recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture–recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture–recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture–recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner‐tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.     

Combining capture–recapture data and known ages allows estimation of age‐dependent survival rates

In many animal populations, demographic parameters such as survival and recruitment vary markedly with age, as do parameters related to sampling, such as capture probability. Failing to account for such variation can result in biased estimates of population‐level rates. However, estimating age‐dependent survival rates can be challenging because ages of individuals are rarely known unless tagging is done at birth. For many species, it is possible to infer age based on size. In capture–recapture studies of such species, it is possible to use a growth model to infer the age at first capture of individuals. We show how to build estimates of age‐dependent survival into a capture–mark–recapture model based on data obtained in a capture–recapture study. We first show how estimates of age based on length increments closely match those based on definitive aging methods. In simulated analyses, we show that both individual ages and age‐dependent survival rates estimated from simulated data closely match true values. With our approach, we are able to estimate the age‐specific apparent survival rates of Murray and trout cod in the Murray River, Australia. Our model structure provides a flexible framework within which to investigate various aspects of how survival varies with age and will have extensions within a wide range of ecological studies of animals where age can be estimated based on size.     

Population size estimates based on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample

Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent–offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic‐based capture–mark–recapture (g‐CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R‐code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one‐time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA‐based (fecal or hair) capture–recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g‐CMR method is ecologically and hunting‐wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species‐independent use.     

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition‐dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition‐dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition‐dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re‐sights) of individual‐based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976–2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture–mark–recapture framework to model age‐dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition‐dependent mortality during a range‐wide drought event (2000–2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime‐aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition‐dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition‐dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi‐extinctions.     

Population viability analysis of Lower Missouri River shovelnose sturgeon with initial application to the pallid sturgeon

Demographic models for the shovelnose (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and pallid (S. albus) sturgeons in the Lower Missouri River were developed to conduct sensitivity analyses for both populations. Potential effects of increased fishing mortality on the shovelnose sturgeon were also evaluated. Populations of shovelnose and pallid sturgeon were most sensitive to age‐0 mortality rates as well as mortality rates of juveniles and young adults. Overall, fecundity was a less sensitive parameter. However, increased fecundity effectively balanced higher mortality among sensitive age classes in both populations. Management that increases population‐level fecundity and improves survival of age‐0, juveniles, and young adults should most effectively benefit both populations. Evaluation of reproductive values indicated that populations of pallid sturgeon dominated by ages ≥35 could rapidly lose their potential for growth, particularly if recruitment remains low. Under the initial parameter values portraying current conditions the population of shovelnose sturgeon was predicted to decline by 1.65% annually, causing the commercial yield to also decline. Modeling indicated that the commercial yield could increase substantially if exploitation of females in ages ≤12 was highly restricted.     

Estimation of migration rates from marker‐based parentage analysis

Coupled with rapid developments of efficient genetic markers, powerful population genetic methods were proposed to estimate migration rates (m) in natural populations in much broader spatial and temporal scales than the traditional mark‐release‐recapture (MRR) methods. Highly polymorphic (e.g. microsatellites) and genomic‐wide (e.g. SNPs) markers provide sufficient information to assign individuals to their populations or parents of origin and thereby to estimate directly m in a way similar to MRR. Such direct estimates of current migration rates are particularly useful in understanding the ecology and microevolution of wild populations and in managing the populations in the future. In this study, I proposed and implemented, in the software MigEst, a likelihood method to use marker‐based parentage assignments in jointly estimating m and candidate parent sampling proportions (x) in a subset of populations, investigated its power and accuracy using data simulated in various scenarios of population properties (e.g. the actual m, number, size and differentiation of populations) and sampling properties (e.g. the numbers of sampled parent candidates, offspring and markers), compared it with the population assignment approach implemented in the software BayesAss and demonstrated its usefulness by analysing a microsatellite data set from three natural populations of Brazilian bats. Simulations showed that MigEst provides unbiased and accurate estimates of m and performs better than BayesAss except when populations are highly differentiated with very small and ecologically insignificant migration rates. A valuable property of MigEst is that in the presence of unsampled populations, it gives good estimates of the rate of migration among sampled populations as well as of the rate of migration into each sampled population from the pooled unsampled populations.     

Optimising control of invasive crayfish using life‐history information

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