Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends

Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960–2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961–1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co‐relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th‐century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.     

Climate and human water use diminish wetland networks supporting continental waterbird migration

Migrating waterbirds moving between upper and lower latitudinal breeding and wintering grounds rely on a limited network of endorheic lakes and wetlands when crossing arid continental interiors. Recent drying of global endorheic water stores raises concerns over deteriorating migratory pathways, yet few studies have considered these effects at the scale of continental flyways. Here, we investigate the resiliency of waterbird migration networks across western North America by reconstructing long‐term patterns (1984–2018) of terminal lake and wetland surface water area in 26 endorheic watersheds. Findings were partitioned regionally by snowmelt‐ and monsoon‐driven hydrologies and combined with climate and human water‐use data to determine their importance in predicting surface water trends. Nonlinear patterns of lake and wetland drying were apparent along latitudinal flyway gradients. Pervasive surface water declines were prevalent in northern snowmelt watersheds (lakes ?27%, wetlands ?47%) while largely stable in monsoonal watersheds to the south (lakes ?13%, wetlands +8%). Monsoonal watersheds represented a smaller proportion of total lake and wetland area, but their distribution and frequency of change within highly arid regions of the continental flyway increased their value to migratory waterbirds. Irrigated agriculture and increasing evaporative demands were the most important drivers of surface water declines. Underlying agricultural and wetland relationships however were more complex. Approximately 7% of irrigated lands linked to flood irrigation and water storage practices supported 61% of all wetland inundation in snowmelt watersheds. In monsoonal watersheds, small earthen dams, meant to capture surface runoff for livestock watering, were a major component of wetland resources (67%) that supported networks of isolated wetlands surrounding endorheic lakes. Ecological trends and human impacts identified herein underscore the importance of assessing flyway‐scale change as our model depictions likely reflect new and emerging bottlenecks to continental migration.     

A Common Parched Future? Research and Management of Australian Arid-zone Floodplain Wetlands

Wetlands in arid and semi-arid areas face intensifying pressure for their water resources yet harbour unique biota and ecological processes that rely on the “boom and bust” regime of alternating flood and drought. Recent research in Australia has revealed that models of ecosystem processes derived from northern temperate zone wetlands are often inapplicable to arid zone wetlands, confounding efforts to manage or protect these threatened habitats. We review four case studies from inland Australia that demonstrate different degrees of successful management, aiming to draw out lessons learned that will improve our sustainable use of these delicate systems. Inappropriate extrapolation across scales that ignores the inherent spatial and temporal variability of arid-zone wetlands, “reactive” rather than “collaborative” research and management, and a reluctance to adopt functional indicators to complement state variables are several common themes. We are optimistic that managers and researchers are collaborating to tackle these issues but warn that a parched future faces some wetlands where jurisdictional boundaries hamper their effective management or entrenched beliefs and community distrust of managers threaten ecologically sustainable resource use. In arid areas where water is so precious, environmental allocations are costly and their long-term effects are difficult to identify against a backdrop of high inherent variability. Preservation of this variability is the key to successful management of these “boom and bust” systems but diametrically opposes the desire for regulated, reliable water supplies for human use. Social and institutional acceptance and change now appear to be greater barriers than limited ecological understanding to effective management of many “parched wetlands” in Australia.     

长江黄河源区湿地分布的时空变化及成因

通过整理解译1969年航片、1986年、2000年、2007年以及2013年TM影像数据,对长江黄河源区的高寒湿地分布的时空变化特征进行分析,并结合气象观测数据和人类活动状况,运用主成分分析和灰色关联度法定量分析造成高寒湿地退化的气候因素和人为因素的贡献,并揭示了高寒湿地退化与各环境因子之间的关联性。结果表明:1969年—2013年间,江河源区的高寒湿地面积减少了19.16%,各湿地类型的斑块分离度不断增大;空间上,高寒湿地的退化区主要分布在长江源区的东北部以及黄河源区的北部地区,与该区域冻土的退化有显著的一致性;1969年以来,江河源区的气候呈气温显著上升、相对湿度降低以及降水量微弱增加的暖干化趋势,湿地的退化与气候变化在时间上有明显的同步性,其中气温升高是形成湿地退化格局的主要原因,降水量和相对湿度的变化会对湿地的变化产生重要影响,尤其是对河流和湖泊的影响更为显著;此外,载畜量的变化是影响湿地变化最重要的人为因素。     

Carbon budgets of wetland ecosystems in China

Wetlands contain a large proportion of carbon (C) in the biosphere and partly affect climate by regulating C cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. China contains Asia's largest wetlands, accounting for about 10% of the global wetland area. Although previous studies attempted to estimate C budget in China's wetlands, uncertainties remain. We conducted a synthesis to estimate C uptake and emission of wetland ecosystems in China using a dataset compiled from published literature. The dataset comprised 193 studies, including 370 sites representing coastal, river, lake and marsh wetlands across China. In addition, C stocks of different wetlands in China were estimated using unbiased data from the China Second Wetlands Survey. The results showed that China's wetlands sequestered 16.87 Pg C (315.76 Mg C/ha), accounting for about 3.8% of C stocks in global wetlands. Net ecosystem productivity, jointly determined by gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration, exhibited annual C sequestration of 120.23 Tg C. China's wetlands had a total gaseous C loss of 173.20 Tg C per year from soils, including 154.26 Tg CO₂‐C and 18.94 Tg CH₄‐C emissions. Moreover, C stocks, uptakes and gaseous losses varied with wetland types, and were affected by geographic location and climatic factors (precipitation and temperature). Our results provide better estimation of the C budget in China's wetlands and improve understanding of their contribution to the global C cycle in the context of global climate change.     

Zooplankton dynamics in response to the transition from drought to flooding in four Murray–Darling Basin rivers affected by differing levels of flow regulation

A review of stratigraphic, radiocarbon, pollen, and aerial photographic data on the Swan Coastal Plain, south-western Australia, allows interpretation of long-term changes in climate and its effects on wetlands during the Holocene, whereas monitoring wetland hydrology and vegetation provides a measure of shorter-term changes. The information provides models for basin wetland response to changing climate. Drying climates shift wetlands to drier conditions, turning lakes into seasonally inundated or waterlogged basins, or resulting in an overall loss of wetlands, and favours more saline conditions, and development of carbonate deposits. Wetter conditions results in more frequent inundation, shifting damplands to sumplands or lakes, and resulting in fresher water conditions, and development of peat and/or organic matter enriched deposits. Examples of wetland basin responses to climate change across the Swan Coastal Plain show differential responses depending on setting, spatial distribution, hydrology, hydrochemistry and geochemistry, different temporal frameworks, and biological resilience.     

Impacts of inundation and drought on eukaryote biodiversity in semi‐arid floodplain soils

Floodplain ecosystems are characterized by alternating wet and dry phases and periodic inundation defines their ecological character. Climate change, river regulation and the construction of levees have substantially altered natural flooding and drying regimes worldwide with uncertain effects on key biotic groups. In southern Australia, we hypothesized that soil eukaryotic communities in climate change affected areas of a semi‐arid floodplain would transition towards comprising mainly dry‐soil specialist species with increasing drought severity. Here, we used 18S rRNA amplicon pyrosequencing to measure the eukaryote community composition in soils that had been depleted of water to varying degrees to confirm that reproducible transitional changes occur in eukaryotic biodiversity on this floodplain. Interflood community structures (3 years post‐flood) were dominated by persistent rather than either aquatic or dry‐specialist organisms. Only 2% of taxa were unique to dry locations by 8 years post‐flood, and 10% were restricted to wet locations (inundated a year to 2 weeks post‐flood). Almost half (48%) of the total soil biota were detected in both these environments. The discovery of a large suite of organisms able to survive nearly a decade of drought, and up to a year submerged supports the concept of inherent resilience of Australian semi‐arid floodplain soil communities under increasing pressure from climatic induced changes in water availability.     

气候变化与人类活动对青藏高原湿地的影响研究进展

青藏高原是中国湿地分布最多的区域,其独特的高寒湿地对区域生态环境安全有着不可或缺的作用。梳理了青藏高原湿地变化的时空特征,基于此,重点分析了气候变化与人类活动对不同类型湿地的影响和作用机制。研究发现：(1)主导不同类型湿地变化的气候因素有差异,影响存在区域异质性。湖泊湿地主要受降水量影响,湖泊湿地在北部扩张、南部缩小的趋势与降水量的空间差异存在较强的一致性;沼泽湿地主要受气温影响,气温升高导致水分蒸发、植被群落演替,沼泽湿地向草地转化,江河源区和若尔盖高原等主要分布区域呈现退化趋势;河流湿地主要受气温影响,气温升高加速河源冰川消融、同时也增大河流蒸散发量,共同作用下河流湿地呈现北部减少、南部增加的趋势。(2)过度放牧、泥炭开采、水利建设等是影响湿地变化的主要人类活动。若尔盖高原同时存在过度放牧、泥炭开采和沟渠建设多重人类活动影响,当地沼泽湿地退化明显;柴达木盆地的人工湿地由于盐业开采迅速扩张。(3)当前研究存在数据可对比性不足、大区域尺度和野外定点持续监测数据缺乏等问题,导致对气候变化与人类活动影响机制研究不够深入。未来应加强高寒湿地定期监测与风险评估,完善高寒湿地生态系统与环境变化和...     

Temporal trends and variability in a high-arctic ecosystem in Greenland: multidimensional analyses of limnic and terrestrial ecosystems

The high arctic is undergoing a faster change in climate than most other regions of the planet, with already observed ecological consequences. Combined with the characteristics of high-arctic ecosystems, such as low species redundancy, high seasonality and weather extremes, shifts in individual species performance and phenology may lead to altered interaction dynamics through trophic mismatch and cascades. An ecosystem approach is therefore desirable in the attempt to understand the multidimensional impacts of climate. Here, we present ecosystem-wide trend analyses of a long-term dataset on terrestrial and limnic biota with focus on the distribution of observed trends and associated variation across the ecosystem. We used 114 time series drawn from 11 abiotic variables, 19 terrestrial and 7 limnic biotic species/taxa and compared temporal trends, changes and abrupt shifts in the variation within and across the two biota. A total of 36 % of the time series analysed showed a significant trend during the study period with a higher frequency of trends occurring within performance variables. Overall, the changes tended to be negative, indicating advances in phenology but reduced species performance. General system variance was also higher in the limnic biota than in the terrestrial biota, both exhibiting increasing variance up through the trophic system. Overall, our results suggest that multiple biotic responses to the climatic changes in this high-arctic ecosystem are not synchronised across trophic levels and may differ qualitatively and quantitatively between terrestrial and limnic biota.     

嫩江流域湿地生态需水量分析与预估

探讨了嫩江流域湿地生态需水量的计算方法,并对流域内不同降水频率下湿地生态需水量进行了计算。在此基础上,选择CMIP全球气候模式下RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5等3种排放情景,预测2030年、2050年和2100年嫩江流域湿地生态需水量的变化趋势。研究结果表明:不同降水频率下的流域湿地生态需水量分别为丰水年70.284亿m3,平水年118.696亿m3,枯水年169.343亿m3,反映了其与气候条件的相关性。3种排放情景下湿地生态需水量变化受到最高、最低气温和降水量变化的共同影响,其中RCP2.6情景下需水量呈先增加后减少的趋势;RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下需水量整体呈增加趋势,到2100年分别达到147.337亿m3和132.659亿m3。气候变化条件下,如何协调水资源需求间的矛盾,维持湿地生态系统健康稳定,将是未来研究关注的重点。     

半干旱区湿地-干草原交错带边界判定及其变化

鉴于目前国内对于半干旱区及小尺度上湿地-干草原交错带边界界定的研究较少,利用交错带对其周围环境变化具有提前指示作用的原理,以宁夏盐池四儿滩湿地为例,首先探讨游动分割窗技术在半干旱区湿地-干草原交错带边界判定中的可行性,其次再对2006年—2010年湿地-干草原交错带的宽度和边界进行判定,通过交错带的宽度和边界变化并结合交错带内植被的变化情况,综合对整个湿地生态系统的健康状况和湿地退化进行研究。结果表明:研究的尺度大小以及交错带过渡性是否明显将决定适宜窗口宽度的大小,这点在选择最小适宜窗口宽度时体现更为显著;降雨量是决定该区交错带的位置与宽度的最主要因素,但降雨量并不是决定该区交错带内植被变化状况的最主要因素,交错带距湿地核心区的距离是影响交错带内物种丰富度指数变化的最主要因素;由于保护区的成立,四儿滩湿地在2006年—2007年间,交错带宽度变大,湿地状况转好,2008年—2010年,由于铁路建设,湿地遭到破坏,交错带萎缩,湿地出现退化现象。湿地-干草原交错带作为一个敏感地带,它的变化情况可以对整个湿地生态系统的变化情况作出一定的提前预示;在半干旱区湿地的健康评价和退化研究中,通过交错带的变化来反映整个湿地生态系统的健康情况是一种可行的思路和方法。     

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho‐anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO₂ concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.     

Predicted response of coastal wetlands to climate changes: a Western Australian model

A review of the Western Australian coast systems shows a range of models of how coastal wetlands could respond to climate change because it spans climates from tropical humid, tropical arid, to near-temperate humid, faces various oceans that drive coastal processes and maintain coastal landforms and habitats, and adjoins a range of hinterland types that develop variable coastal habitats, runoff and rainfall. It thus provides a plethora of settings that latitudinally will respond differentially to any changes in air temperatures, evaporation, rainfall patterns, freshwater influx, wind regimes and storm activity, and derivative responses such as changes in sediment supply, maintenance of coastal forms, coastal groundwater and biota. A review and examples of coastal wetland response to climate changes are provided from Walpole–Nornalup Inlet Estuary, Leschenault Inlet Estuary, the Point Becher area and King Sound.     

Wetlands serve as natural sources for improvement of stream ecosystem health in regions affected by acid deposition

For over 40 years, acid deposition has been recognized as a serious international environmental problem, but efforts to restore acidified streams and biota have had limited success. The need to better understand the effects of different sources of acidity on streams has become more pressing with the recent increases in surface water organic acids, or ‘brownification,’ associated with climate change and decreased inorganic acid deposition. Here, we carried out a large scale multi‐seasonal investigation in the Adirondacks, one of the most acid‐impacted regions in the United States, to assess how acid stream producers respond to local and watershed influences and whether these influences can be used in acidification remediation. We explored the pathways of wetland control on aluminum chemistry and diatom taxonomic and functional composition. We demonstrate that streams with larger watershed wetlands have higher organic content, lower concentrations of acidic anions, and lower ratios of inorganic to organic monomeric aluminum, all beneficial for diatom biodiversity and guilds producing high biomass. Although brownification has been viewed as a form of pollution, our results indicate that it may be a stimulating force for biofilm producers with potentially positive consequences for higher trophic levels. Our research also reveals that the mechanism of watershed control of local stream diatom biodiversity through wetland export of organic matter is universal in running waters, operating not only in hard streams, as previously reported, but also in acid streams. Our findings that the negative impacts of acid deposition on Adirondack stream chemistry and biota can be mitigated by wetlands have important implications for biodiversity conservation and stream ecosystem management. Future acidification research should focus on the potential for wetlands to improve stream ecosystem health in acid‐impacted regions and their direct use in stream restoration, for example, through stream rechanneling or wetland construction in appropriate hydrologic settings.     

Historical biogeographical patterns in continental Australia: congruence among areas of endemism of two major clades of eucalypts

Published phylogenies of two eucalypt clades, red bloodwoods Corymbia subgenus Corymbia and eudesmids Eucalyptus subgenus Eudesmia (Myrtaceae), were combined for an analysis of historical biogeographical area relationships within continental Australia. The method of paralogy‐free subtree analysis was used to eliminate geographical paralogy; the paralogy‐free subtrees were coded as characters for parsimony analysis to find the minimal and area cladogram, which proved to be informative of a continent‐wide pattern. The eucalypt fossil record and molecular dating studies allow an interpretation of the biogeographical history in terms of major vicariance events that date from the early Paleogene. The summary area cladogram shows the wet jarrah forest region of South‐West Western Australia, a region of high endemism, as the earliest to differentiate from all other areas, isolated by marine inundation across southern Australia and climatic cooling in the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene. From about this time, regionalization continued, with warmer conditions and monsoonal climate developing in central and northern Australia, and cooling in the south‐east. Northern and eastern humid and semi‐humid areas were related as a track, but with increased aridity in the interior of the continent, the monsoonal climate contracted northwards. The Australian Monsoon Tropics (AMT: Kimberley, Top End, Arnhem, Cape York and inland north‐east Queensland) differentiated from eastern areas (Queensland wet tropics to McPherson–Macleay). Our results also show all arid and semi‐arid regions as related, suggestive of a historically cohesive interior biota rather than repeated colonizations of the interior from the periphery of the continent. Climate largely differentiates hot arid areas in the north (Pilbara, Northern and Central deserts) from arid areas in the south (south‐west interzone, Wheatbelt, Goldfields and Great Victoria Desert). © The Willi Hennig Society 2010.     

Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long‐term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid‐adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater‐dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short‐range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little thermal or hydrological buffering. Accordingly, conservation planning must focus on maintaining meta‐population processes, especially through dynamic connectivity between aquatic habitats at a landscape scale.     

Functional and Phylogenetic Relatedness in Temporary Wetland Invertebrates: Current Macroecological Patterns and Implications for Future Climatic Change Scenarios

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.     

Velvet worm (Phylum Onychophora) on a sand island,in a wetland: Flushed from a Pleistocene refuge by recent rainfall?

Velvet worms (Onychophora) are restricted to moist, humid microclimates, but are poorly known from south‐east Queensland, Australia, where they are typically rainforest fauna. We made the unlikely observation of one of these invertebrates clinging to floating debris in a wetland on North Stradbroke Island. Palaeoecology of this wetland reveals that it once was within rainforest and has remained moist for at least the past 80 000 years, thus potentially harbouring an onychophoran population as a relic of a past broader, rainforest distribution. The presence of this animal, floating in the wetland, can be explained by recent climate, since the wetland filled following heavy rainfall shortly before the observation. This highlights the importance of groundwater‐fed wetlands as evolutionary refugia for moisture‐dependent biota.     

Impact of Plio-Pleistocene arid cycling on the population history of a southwestern Australian frog

Southwestern Australia is regarded as a global biodiversity hotspot. The region contains a high number of endemic species, ranging from Gondwanan relicts to much more recently evolved plant and animal species. Myobatrachid frogs are diverse in southwestern Australia, and while we know they have speciated in situ in the southwest, we know little about the temporal and geographical patterning of speciation events. Crinia georgiana is an ideal subject to test hypotheses concerning the effect of climatic history on southwestern Australian anurans, as it is an old lineage with a broad distribution covering the entire region. We compiled an extensive phylogeographical data set based on 1085 bp of the mitochondrial gene ND2 for 68 individuals from 18 sites across the species' range. Two major genetic clades were identified which were largely confined to the high rainfall and southeast coastal biogeographical zones, respectively. The clades appear to have diverged around the Plio-Pleistocene border (1.26-1.72 million years ago), concordant with increasing intensity and frequency of arid climate cycles. Subsequent phylogeographical structure appears to have developed primarily during the Pleistocene climatic fluctuations that also have been integral in generating species diversity in the endemic southwestern Australian flora. Phylogeographical analyses identified several dispersal routes, possible refugial areas within the range of the species and also regions of secondary contact. Dispersal routes identified may now be closed to the species because of habitat destruction and salinity problems in inland regions, posing concerns about the evolutionary potential of the species in light of predicted climate change.     

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Water Level,Flora and Macro-fauna of a Large Neotropical Wetland

Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world’s largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.