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1.
Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%-quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature-only models and in all-predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature-only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter-specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
Boreal forests are facing profound changes in their growth environment, including warming‐induced water deficits, extended growing seasons, accelerated snowmelt, and permafrost thaw. The influence of warming on trees varies regionally, but in most boreal forests studied to date, tree growth has been found to be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. Here, we used a network of Pinus sylvestris tree‐ring collections spanning a wide climate gradient the southern end of the boreal forest in Asia to assess their response to climate change for the period 1958–2014. Contrary to findings in other boreal regions, we found that previously negative effects of temperature on tree growth turned positive in the northern portion of the study network after the onset of rapid warming. Trees in the drier portion did not show this reversal in their climatic response during the period of rapid warming. Abundant water availability during the growing season, particularly in the early to mid‐growing season (May–July), is key to the reversal of tree sensitivity to climate. Advancement in the onset of growth appears to allow trees to take advantage of snowmelt water, such that tree growth increases with increasing temperatures during the rapidly warming period. The region's monsoonal climate delivers limited precipitation during the early growing season, and thus snowmelt likely covers the water deficit so trees are less stressed from the onset of earlier growth. Our results indicate that the growth response of P. sylvestris to increasing temperatures strongly related to increased early season water availability. Hence, boreal forests with sufficient water available during crucial parts of the growing season might be more able to withstand or even increase growth during periods of rising temperatures. We suspect that other regions of the boreal forest may be affected by similar dynamics.  相似文献   

3.
Recent studies have introduced the metric GWPbio, an indicator of the potential global warming impact of CO2 emissions from biofuels. When a time horizon of 100 years was applied, the studies found the GWPbio of bioenergy from slow‐growing forests to be significantly lower than the traditionally calculated GWP of CO2 from fossil fuels. This result means that bioenergy is an attractive energy source from a climate mitigation perspective. The present paper provides an improved method for quantifying GWPbio. The method is based on a model of a forest stand that includes basic dynamics and interactions of the forest's multiple carbon pools, including harvest residues, other dead organic matter, and soil carbon. Moreover, the baseline scenario (with no harvest) takes into account that a mature stand will usually continue to capture carbon if not harvested. With these methodological adjustments, the resulting GWPbio estimates are found to be two to three times as high as the estimates of GWPbio found in other studies, and also significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO2, when a 100‐year time horizon is applied. Hence, the climate impact per unit of CO2 emitted seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100‐year time frame.  相似文献   

4.
Increases in niche complementarity have been hypothesised to reduce the intensity of interspecific competition within natural forests. In regions currently experiencing potentially enhanced growth under global environmental change, niche complementarity may become even more beneficial. However, few studies have provided direct evidence of this mechanism. Here, we use data from 180 permanent sample plots in Manitoba, Canada, with a full spatial mapping of all stems, to show that complementarity effects on average increased with neighbourhood competition intensity and temporally rising CO2, warming and water availability. Importantly, complementarity effects increased with both shade tolerance and phylogenetic dissimilarity between the focal tree and its neighbours. Our results provide further evidence that increasing stand functional and phylogenetic diversity can improve individual tree productivity, especially for individuals experiencing intense competition and may offer an avenue to maintain productivity under global environmental change.  相似文献   

5.
Aim An important issue regarding biodiversity concerns its influence on ecosystem functioning. Experimental work has led to the proposal of mechanisms such as niche complementarity. However, few attempts have been made to confirm these in natural systems, especially in forests. Furthermore, one of the most interesting unresolved questions is whether the effects of complementarity on ecosystem functioning (EF) decrease in favour of competitive exclusions over an increasing productivity gradient. Using records from permanent forest plots, we asked the following questions. (1) Is tree productivity positively related to diversity? (2) Does the effect of diversity increase in less productive forests? (3) What metric of diversity (e.g. functional or phylogenetic diversity) better relates to tree productivity? Location Temperate, mixed and boreal forests of eastern Canada. Methods Over 12,000 permanent forest plots, from temperate to boreal forests, were used to test our hypotheses in two steps. (1) Stepwise regressions were used to identify the best explanatory variables for tree productivity. (2) The selected climatic and environmental variables, as well as density and biodiversity indices, were included in a structural equation model where links (paths) between covarying variables are made explicit, making structural equation modelling the best tool to explore such complicated causal networks. Results This is the first large‐scale demonstration of a strong, positive and significant effect of biodiversity on tree productivity with control for climatic and environmental conditions. Important differences were noted between the two forest biomes investigated. Main conclusions We show for the first time that complementarity may be less important in temperate forests growing in a more stable and productive environment where competitive exclusion is the most probable outcome of species interactions, whereas in the more stressful environment of boreal forests, beneficial interactions between species may be more important. The present work is also a framework for the analysis of large datasets in biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (B‐EF) research.  相似文献   

6.
Many studies reported biotic change along a continental warming gradient. However, the temporal and spatial change of tree diversity and their sensitivity to climate warming might differ from region to region. Understanding of the variation among studies with regard to the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal, especially in montane ecosystems. Our aim is to better understand changes in spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of mountain tree communities under climate warming over the past four decades. In 2017, we resurveyed and recorded all tree species from 107 long‐term monitoring plots that were first studied between 1974 and 1976. These plots were located in montane forests in the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), China. Our results showed that spatial differences were found in tree species diversity changes response to mean annual temperature change over the past four decades. Tree species richness increased significantly under climate warming in Minshan (MS) and Xiaoxiangling (XXL) with higher warming rate than Qionglai (QLS) and Liangshan (LS). The trees species diversity in MS and XXL were more sensitive to climatic warming. MS and XXL should receive priority protection in the next conservation plan of the GPNP. The GPNP should avoid taking a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach for diversity conservation due to spatial heterogeneity in plant community dynamics.  相似文献   

7.
The boreal forest is predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome during the next 50–100 years, but the effects of warming on vegetation phenology are not well known. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the effects of whole ecosystem warming on bud burst and annual shoot growth of black spruce trees in northern Manitoba, Canada and (2) correlate bud burst to cumulative degree-days (CDD). The experimental design was a complete randomized block design that consisted of four replicated blocks. Each replicate block contained four treatments: soil warming only (heated outside, HO), soil and air warming (heated inside, HI), control outside (no chamber, no heating, CO), and inside a chamber maintained at ambient conditions (no soil or air warming, control inside, CI). Bud burst was measured during the first and second years of the experiment, starting in 2004, and annual shoot growth was measured for the first 3 years (2004–2006) of the study. On average, shoot bud burst occurred 11 and 9 days earlier in 2004 and 2005, respectively, for HI than for other treatments. However, mean CDD required for bud burst for HI was within the standard deviation of CO for both years. In year 1 of the treatments, shoot bud burst occurred earlier for HI than other treatments (CI, CO, HO), but final shoot length of HI trees was less than in CO trees. In the second year of warming, final shoot length was not different for HI than CO. By the third year of warming final shoot length was significantly greater for HI than all other treatments. Empirical results from this study suggest that soil and air warming causes an earlier bud burst for all years of observation and greater shoot lengths by the third season of warming. A longer growing season and greater annual shoot growth should increase carbon uptake by boreal black spruce trees in a warmer climate.  相似文献   

8.
Northern forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of anthropogenic processes including global warming, atmospheric deposition, and changing land‐use. The vegetation of northern forests is composed of species with several functional traits related to these processes, whose effects may be difficult to disentangle. Here, we combined analyses of spatio‐temporal dynamics and functional traits of ground flora species, including morphological characteristics, responses to macro‐ and microclimate, soil conditions, and disturbance. Based on data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we compared changes in occurrence of a large number of ground flora species during a 20‐year period (1994–2013) in boreal and temperate Sweden respectively. Our results show that a majority of the common ground flora species have changed their overall frequency. Comparisons of functional traits between increasing and declining species, and of trends in mean trait values of sample plots, indicate that current floristic changes are caused by combined effects of climate warming, nitrogen deposition and changing land‐use. Changes and their relations with plant traits were generally larger in temperate southern Sweden. Nutrient‐demanding species with mesotrophic morphology were favored by ongoing eutrophication due to nitrogen deposition in the temperate zone, while dwarf shrubs with low demands on nitrogen decreased in frequency. An increase of species with less northern and less eastern distribution limits was also restricted to temperate Sweden, and indicates effects of a moister and milder macroclimate. A trend toward dense plantation forests is mirrored by a decrease of light‐demanding species in both vegetation zones, and a decrease of grassland species in the temperate zone. Although denser tree canopies may buffer effects of a warmer climate and of nitrogen deposition to some extent, traits related to these processes were weakly correlated in the group of species with changing frequency. Hence, our results indicate specific effects of these often confounded anthropogenic processes.  相似文献   

9.
The impact of climate warming on the littoral zone of a boreal lake ecosystem was studied experimentally for three growing seasons in two artificial ponds (10×27 m) and in replicated chamber experiments. One pond was enclosed in a plastic greenhouse and another untreated pond served as a reference system. During the growing seasons temperature in the greenhouse was maintained at levels 2–3 °C higher than ambient with a computer-controlled ventilation system. One growing season prior to initiation of the experiment, a vegetated littoral zone with equal densities of water horsetail (Equisetum fluviatile) was established in both ponds. Although changes occurred in the species dominance (E. fluviatile - Alisma plantago-aquatica - Sparganium erectum spp. microcarpum - Elodea canadensis) within the three years of the study, the emergent macrophytes emerged earlier and grew better in the warmer conditions of the greenhouse pond compared with those in the reference pond. The difference in above-ground biomass throughout the growing seasons was >2 fold and after three experimental growing seasons the difference in below-ground biomass of macrophytes was 2.5-fold between the ponds. In replicated chamber experiments the biomass growth of E. fluviatile was also significantly higher in a 2–3 °C higher temperature than under ambient conditions. An ecosystem-scale induced change, characterized by a heavy growth of filamentous algae (mainly chlorophytes) was evident in the vegetated littoral zone of the greenhouse pond. A hypothesis that macrophyte rhizomes function as `phosphorus pumps' from the sediment and thus accelerate eutrophication in a warmer climate should be further studied.  相似文献   

10.
On the basis of the predictions of the global climatic warming induced by anthropogenic activities, as provided by climatologists, current state of knowledge regarding possible ecological consequences of the warming on the boreal biome was discussed. A 600 to 700 km northward advance of the biome along with the warming was predicted. Such a shift could take place for half a century or so, which would be an unprecedentedly fast rate of progression. This might cause a serious disorder in species composition of the biome, particularly in the boundary regions. As to the carbon sink or source issues, considerable uncertainties and knowledge gaps existed. Elevated temperature and CO2 levels would stimulate photosynthesis to result in an increase of CO2 uptake, while the temperature increase would promote decomposition of organic matter especially that stored in the soils to release CO2 to the atmosphere. Behaviors of northern peat bogs, whereca. 700 Gt of organic matter was thought to be accumulated, would seriously affect the balance. However, overall ecosystematic carbon balance was yet to be fully studied. It was realized that multifunctional approaches needed to be developed so as to integrate pieces of various information into a holistic picture. Need for international collaboration research efforts was also addressed.  相似文献   

11.
Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire-conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21-year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire-conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire-conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind-driven, rather than drought-driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire-conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome-wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.  相似文献   

12.
Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity.  相似文献   

13.
Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large‐scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large‐scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential.  相似文献   

14.
Boreal peatlands may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, because temperature regimes that currently constrain biological activity in these regions are predicted to increase substantially within the next century. Changes in peatland plant community composition in response to climate change may alter nutrient availability, energy budgets, trace gas fluxes, and carbon storage. We investigated plant community response to warming and drying in a field mesocosm experiment in northern Minnesota, USA. Large intact soil monoliths removed from a bog and a fen received three infrared warming treatments crossed with three water‐table treatments (n = 3) for five years. Foliar cover of each species was estimated annually. In the bog, increases in soil temperature and decreases in water‐table elevation increased cover of shrubs by 50% and decreased cover of graminoids by 50%. The response of shrubs to warming was distinctly species‐specific, and ranged from increases (for Andromeda glaucophylla) to decreases (for Kalmia polifolia). In the fens, changes in plant cover were driven primarily by changes in water‐table elevation, and responses were species‐ and lifeform‐specific: increases in water‐table elevation increased cover of graminoids – in particular Carex lasiocarpa and Carex livida– as well as mosses. In contrast, decreases in water‐table elevation increased cover of shrubs, in particular A. glaucophylla and Chamaedaphne calyculata. The differential and sometimes opposite response of species and lifeforms to the treatments suggest that the structure and function of both bog and fen plant communities will change – in different directions or at different magnitudes – in response to warming and/or changes in water‐table elevation that may accompany regional or global climate change.  相似文献   

15.
全球气候变暖影响植物-传粉者网络的研究进展   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
肖宜安  张斯斯  闫小红  董鸣 《生态学报》2015,35(12):3871-3880
植物与传粉者间相互作用,构成了复杂的传粉网络。目前,以气候变化为主要特征的全球变暖对植物-传粉者网络的影响备受关注,概述了近年来这方面研究的几个主要热点问题及其进展,和相关研究方法。并在此基础上,提出了气温持续上升背景下,植物-传粉者网络未来的研究趋势。当前研究的主要热点问题有:(1)气候变暖使植物、传粉者的物候发生变化,并通过影响植物的开花时间和传粉者活动时间,导致两者在物候时间上的不同步。(2)气候变暖导致植物、传粉者的群落结构变化,促使其地理分布向更高纬度和更高海拔扩散,这可能潜在的导致两者空间分布的不匹配。(3)植物和传粉者通过增加或减少其丰富度来响应气候变暖,可能导致传粉网络结构特征发生变化。(4)面对气候变暖导致植物和传粉者间物候和地理分布错配所引发的互作改变、甚至解体,传粉网络可通过自身网络结构及快速进化来缓冲和适应。在今后研究中,以下几个问题值得探讨:1)气候变暖对植物-传粉者网络影响的大时空尺度变异模式。2)多因素协同作用对植物-传粉者网络的影响特征。3)全球气候变暖对植物、传粉者物候匹配性影响的机理。  相似文献   

16.
Over the last few years anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia have been regarded as manifestations of climate change. During the same period exceptional forest fire seasons have been reported, prompting many authors to suggest that these in turn are due to climate change. In this paper, we examine the number and areal extent of forest fires across boreal Russia for the period 2002-2005 within two forest categories: 'intact forests' and 'non-intact forests'. Results show a far lower density of fire events in intact forests (5-14 times less) and that those events tend to be in the first 10 km buffer zone inside intact forest areas. Results also show that, during exceptional climatic years (2002 and 2003), fire event density is twice that found during normal years (2004 and 2005) and average areal extent of fire events (burned area) in intact forests is 2.5 times larger than normal. These results suggest that a majority of the fire events in boreal Russia are of human origin and a maximum of one-third of their impact (areal extension) can be attributed to climate anomalies alone, the rest being due to the combined effect of human disturbances and climate anomalies.  相似文献   

17.
Traditionally, wood fuels, like other bioenergy sources, have been considered carbon neutral because the amount of CO2 released can be offset by CO2 sequestration due to the regrowth of the biomass. Thus, until recently, most studies assigned a global warming potential (GWP) of zero to CO2 generated by the combustion of biomass (biogenic CO2). Moreover, emissions of biogenic CO2 are usually not included in carbon tax and emissions trading schemes. However, there is now increasing awareness of the inadequacy of this way of treating bioenergy, especially bioenergy from boreal forests. Holtsmark (2014) recently quantified the GWP of biogenic CO2 from slow‐growing forests (GWPbio), finding it to be significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO2 when a 100 year time horizon was applied. Hence, the climate impact seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100 year timeframe. The present study extends the analysis of Holtsmark (2014) in three ways. First, it includes the cooling effects of increased surface reflectivity after harvest (albedo). Second, it includes a comparison with the potential warming impact of fossil fuels, taking the CO2 emissions per unit of energy produced into account. Third, the study links the literature estimating GWPbio and the literature dealing with the carbon debt, and model simulations estimating the payback time of the carbon debt are presented. The conclusion is that, also after these extensions of the analysis, bioenergy from slow‐growing forests usually has a larger climate impact in a 100 year timeframe than fossil oil and gas. Whether bioenergy performs better or worse than coal depends on a number of conditions.  相似文献   

18.
Forest fires frequently occur in boreal forests,and their effects on forest ecosystems are often significant in terms of carbon flux related to climate changes.Soil respiration is the second largest carbon flux in boreal forests and the change in soil respiration is not negligible.Environmental factors controlling the soil respiration,for example,soil temperature,are altered by such fires.The abnormal increase in soil temperature has an important negative effect on soil microbes by reducing their activities or even by killing them directly with strong heat.On the other hand,although vegetation is directly disturbed by fires,the indirect changes in soil respiration are followed by changes in root activities and soil microbes.However,there is very limited information on soil respiration in the forests of Northeast China.This review,by combining what is known about fire influence on soil respiration in boreal forests from previous studies of post-fire effects on soil conditions,soil microbes,and forest regeneration,presents possible scenarios of the impact of anticipated post-fire changes in forest soil respiration in Northeast China.  相似文献   

19.
全球气候变暖对凋落物分解的影响   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
宋飘  张乃莉  马克平  郭继勋 《生态学报》2014,34(6):1327-1339
凋落物分解作为生态系统核心过程,参与生态系统碳的周转与循环,影响生态系统碳的收支平衡,调控生态系统对全球气候变暖的反馈结果。全球气候变暖通过环境因素、凋落物数量和质量以及分解者3个方面,直接或间接地作用于凋落物分解过程,并进一步影响土壤养分周转和碳库动态。气候变暖可通过升高温度和改变实际蒸散量等环境因素直接作用于凋落物分解。气候变暖可引起植物物种短期内碳、氮和木质素等化学性质的改变以及群落中物种组成的长期变化从而改变凋落物质量。在凋落物分解过程中,土壤分解者亚系统作为主要生命组分(土壤动物和微生物)彼此相互作用、相互协调共同参与调节凋落物的分解过程。凋落物分解可以通过改变土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构来加快微生物养分的固定或矿化,以形成新的养分利用模式来改变土壤有机质从而对气候变化做出响应。未来凋落物分解的研究方向应基于大尺度跨区域分解实验和长期实验,关注多个因子交互影响下,分解过程中碳、氮养分释放、地上/地下凋落物分解生物学过程与联系、分解者亚系统营养级联效应等方面。  相似文献   

20.
Forest fires frequently occur in boreal forests, and their effects on forest ecosystems are often significant in terms of carbon flux related to climate changes. Soil respiration is the second largest carbon flux in boreal forests and the change in soil respiration is not negligible. Environmental factors controlling the soil respiration, for example, soil temperature, are altered by such fires. The abnormal increase in soil temperature has an important negative effect on soil microbes by reducing their activities or even by killing them directly with strong heat. On the other hand, although vegetation is directly disturbed by fires, the indirect changes in soil respiration are followed by changes in root activities and soil microbes. However, there is very limited information on soil respiration in the forests of Northeast China. This review, by combining what is known about fire influence on soil respiration in boreal forests from previous studies of post-fire effects on soil conditions, soil microbes, and forest regeneration, presents possible scenarios of the impact of anticipated post-fire changes in forest soil respiration in Northeast China.  相似文献   

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