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1.
The plant richness hypothesis (PRH) is used to explain herbivorous insect richness based on the number of plant species, predicting a positive relationship. However, the influence of plant richness on insect distribution can become stronger with greater levels of specialization of herbivores. In this meta-analysis, I tested whether there is any difference in the correlation force recorded between studies that investigated endophagous versus exophagous herbivores, and galling versus non-galling guilds, in order to determine whether more specialized groups have a stronger relationship. Furthermore, I calculated whether effect sizes were homogeneous between galling studies carried out at local and regional scales, and between tropical and temperate regions. A total of 52 correlations were analyzed between plant species richness and herbivore species richness, with 18 correlations derived from galling herbivores and 34 from non-galling herbivores. The effect sizes were significant and positive in all studies, being higher for endophages than for exophages, and for galling than for non-galling studies. These results provide evidence that groups of insects with a higher level of host specialization and specificity (e.g., endophagous and galling) exhibit a greater dependence on plant richness. There was no difference in effect sizes for galling studies between the local and regional level or between tropical and temperate groups. Despite the large variability found for galling studies, effect sizes were consistent independently of climatic region and latitudinal variation. These results suggest that the PRH for galling insects can be generalized to most ecosystem and vegetation types.  相似文献   

2.
Predicting patterns of plant species richness in megadiverse South Africa   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Using new tools (boosted regression trees) in predictive biogeography, with extensive spatial 23 distribution data for >19 000 species, we developed predictive models for South African plant species richness patterns. Further, biome level analysis explored possible functional determinants of country‐wide regional species richness. Finally, to test model reliability independently, we predicted potential alien invasive plant species richness with an independent dataset. Amongst the different hypotheses generally invoked to explain species 30 diversity (energy, favorableness, topographic heterogeneity, irregularity and seasonality), results revealed topographic heterogeneity as the most powerful single explanatory variable for indigenous South African plant species richness. Some biome‐specific responses were observed, i.e. two of the five analyzed biomes (Fynbos and Grassland) had richness best explained by the “species‐favorableness” hypothesis, but even in this case, topographic heterogeneity was also a primary predictor. This analysis, the largest conducted on an almost exhaustive species sample in a species‐rich region, demonstrates the preeminence of topographic heterogeneity in shaping the spatial pattern of regional plant species richness. Model reliability was confirmed by the considerable predictive power for alien invasive species richness. It thus appears that topographic heterogeneity controls species richness in two main ways: firstly, by providing an abundance of ecological niches in contemporary space (revealed by alien invasive species richness relationships) and secondly, by facilitating the persistence of ecological niches through time. The extraordinary richness of the South African Fynbos biome, a world‐renowned hotspot of biodiversity with the steepest environmental gradients in South Africa, may thus have arisen through both mechanisms. Comparisons with similar regions of the world outside South Africa are needed to confirm the generality of topographic heterogeneity and favorableness as predictors of plant richness.  相似文献   

3.
The decline of bees has raised concerns regarding their conservation and the maintenance of ecosystem services they provide to bee-pollinated wild flowers and crops. Although the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for bee species richness, their status remains poorly studied. There is an urgent need for cost-effective, reliable, and unbiased sampling methods that give good bee species richness estimates. This study aims: (a) to assess bee species richness in two common Mediterranean habitat types: semi-natural scrub (phrygana) and managed olive groves; (b) to compare species richness in those systems to that of other biogeographic regions, and (c) to assess whether six different sampling methods (pan traps, variable and standardized transect walks, observation plots and trap nests), previously tested in other European biogeographic regions, are suitable in Mediterranean communities. Eight study sites, four per habitat type, were selected on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The species richness observed was high compared to other habitat types worldwide for which comparable data exist. Pan traps collected the highest proportion of the total bee species richness across all methods at the scale of a study site. Variable and standardized transect walks detected the highest total richness over all eight study sites. Trap nests and observation plots detected only a limited fraction of the bee species richness. To assess the total bee species richness in bee diversity hotspots, such as the studied habitats, we suggest a combination of transect walks conducted by trained bee collectors and pan trap sampling.  相似文献   

4.
The relationship between plant species richness and the space organization of the community at different small scales was studied. The study was based on 51 sites distributed along a belt from Central Spain to Portugal. Each site was analyzed with a transect cutting across the boundary between two neighboring patches of shrubland and grassland. Local spatial organization of vegetation was analyzed at different levels of detail and each transect was divided into successively smaller portions. The first division coincides with a physiognomic perception of the site in two patches (shrubland and grassland). The average spatial niche width of the species was used to calculate the spatial organization of the vegetation of each division in each site. The correlation between species richness and spatial organization depended on the block size under consideration. A physiognomic criterion, sectorizing the sites into patches of shrubland and grassland, determines noteworthy floristic changes but does not enable us to express satisfactorily the variability in plant richness. In order to account for this variation, other factors must be taken into account which act at a more detailed small-scale and which determine the internal variability of these patches. In the case studied, the species richness of the sites increases along with an increase in the percentage of species whose occupation of the space is relatively restricted within the site. Many of these species are, however, frequent within the whole of the territory studied. The results highlight the importance of the level of local scale at which the factors influencing occupation of the space, and consequentially, plant richness, preferentially act. This circumstance ought to be taken into consideration in strategies for the conservation of biological diversity, and based on the delimitation of protected spaces with criteria frequently linked to the physiognomy of the vegetation.Nomenclature: Follows T.G. Tutin et al. 1964-1980. Flora Europaea. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge  相似文献   

5.
Aim We developed a model enabling us to evaluate the contribution of both natural and human‐related factors to butterfly species richness in Catalonia, a Mediterranean area that harbours one of the most diverse butterfly faunas in Europe. Location The study was carried out in Catalonia (north‐east Iberian Peninsula), a region of 31,930 km2 lying between the Pyrenees, the Ebro depression and the Mediterranean sea. Methods Data from the Catalan Butterfly Monitoring Scheme were used to assess butterfly species richness from 55 transects spread all over the region. Three groups of environmental variables likely to affect the presence of butterfly species were calculated, above all from geographic information system data: (1) climatology and topography, (2) vegetation structure and (3) human disturbance. Because climatic and topographic variables are expected to be strongly correlated, we first performed a principal component analysis (PCA) to create a summarizing factor that would account for most of the variance within this set of variables. Subsequently, a backward stepwise multiple regression was performed in order to assess the effects of environmental factors on butterfly species richness. Results A total of 131 species were detected in the monitoring transects, representing 75.7% of the butterfly fauna known from Catalonia. Mean species richness per transect and per year was 41.4, although values varied greatly among sites (range: 14–76.8). The final regression model explained more than 80% of the total variance, which indicated a strong association between butterfly species richness and the studied environmental factors. The model revealed the very important contribution of climatic and topographic variables, which were combined into a single factor in the PCA. In contrast to what has been found in other, more northerly countries, species richness was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with rainfall, except for extreme cold and wet conditions. This may be a consequence of the predictably adverse effects of the Mediterranean summer drought on herbivorous insects, and the fact that the limits of distribution of many butterflies correlate well with climatic variables. Human disturbance (defined as the proportion of urban and agricultural landscape cover in buffer areas of 5 km around the transect sites) was the second most important predictor for species richness. We found that a significant decrease in species numbers was associated with an increase in human pressure, a finding that indicates that not only building development, but also modern‐day agricultural practices are detrimental to the conservation of Mediterranean butterflies. Surprisingly, vegetation variables had an almost negligible effect on butterfly species richness. Main conclusions Our findings strongly indicate that the current motors of global change will have a negative effect on Mediterranean butterfly assemblages. First, changes in land‐use are transforming and fragmenting the landscape into an inhospitable and less permeable matrix for butterflies. Secondly, the negative correlation between species richness and temperature will lead to a predictable loss of diversity over the coming years, as predicted in the most plausible scenarios of climate change. Considering the high butterfly richness characterizing the Mediterranean Basin, this future trend will pose a serious threat to biodiversity.  相似文献   

6.
We studied vegetation change on 142 permanently marked transects spread throughout tussock grasslands of Otago and Canterbury, in areas subject to both pastoral and conservation management. The transects were established between 1982 and 1986 and remeasured between 1993 and 1999, providing a record of vegetation change at each site over an interval varying from 10 to 15 years. Each transect consisted of 50 quadrats, each 0.25m(2), in which the presence of all vascular plant species had been recorded. For each transect, we calculated the change between measurements in the mean number of species recorded per quadrat, and the change in the total number of species recorded per transect. Averaged across all transects, there was a significant decline in species richness between measurements at both the quadrat and transect scales. Small herbs (those less than or equal to2 cm tall, excluding Hieracium species) showed the greatest decline. On average, more than one quarter of the small herb species present in a quadrat at the first measurement had disappeared within 10 years. Larger herbs, ferns, rushes, sedges and grasses (excluding Chionochloa species) also declined significantly in species richness, reflecting declines in the abundance of species in these groups. Woody species richness remained constant, while species in the genera Chionochloa and Hieracium increased significantly in mean quadrat species richness, reflecting increases in the abundance of these species along transects. The rate of decline in mean quadrat species richness was unrelated to changes in the abundance of either Chionochloa or Hieracium species, or to an overall increase in total vegetation cover on transects. The rate of decline in species richness was also unrelated to the level of grazing or burning between measurements. However, the rate of decline in species richness was greater at lower elevation, on schist rock and on yellow-brown and yellow-grey soils. Our results suggest that a major compositional change is occurring in these grasslands at a rate that is independent of local variation in management and independent of the widespread invasion of these grasslands by Hieracium species.  相似文献   

7.
Plant species diversity maintains the stability of ecosystems and the diversity of consumer species such as insect herbivores. Considering that gall-inducing insects are highly specialized on their host plants and dependent on the occurrence, abundance and distribution of plants, we evaluated the diversity patterns of gall-inducing insect along Brazilian Neotropical savannas and the potential role of plant species richness, vegetation structure and super-host presence on determining these patterns. We found 1,882 individual plants that belonged to 64 different host plant species grouped in 31 families, associated to 112 galling insect species. The galling richness was positively influenced by plant species richness and the presence of the super-host genus Qualea (Vochysiaceae). Plant species richness explained 48 % of the galling richness and areas with presence of super-hosts had more than twice of galling species than areas where they were absent. On the other hand, we found no evidence that larger plants hosted more species of galling insects. We observed that for the diversity of galling insects in the Brazilian Cerrado, vegetation structure explained almost the same portion as plant richness, because structural variables did not have an effect on residuals of galling richness and plant richness regression. Our findings suggests that plant richness has a more important role on the mitigation of natural enemies and adaptive radiation of galling species, while structural aspects of the vegetation does not seem to have that effect. Furthermore, we show that the super-host taxa provide an increment in local galling richness because they present a great diversity of local number of gall morphospecies (i.e. alpha diversity) and the high turnover of morphospecies among different localities (i.e. beta diversity). Therefore we argue that the quality of resources (richness and super host presence) appears to be a most important factor for the diversity of galling insects in Neotropical systems, than the amount of resources.  相似文献   

8.

Background

The Fynbos (FB) and Succulent Karoo biomes (SKB) have high regional plant diversity despite relatively low productivity. Local diversity in the region varies but is moderate. For insects, previous work suggests that strict phytophages, but not other taxa, may have high regional richness. However, what has yet to be investigated is whether the local insect species richness of FB and SKB is unusual for a region of this productivity level at this latitude, and whether regional richness is also high. Here we determine whether this is the case for ants.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We use species richness data from pitfall traps in the FB and SKB in the Western Cape Province, South Africa and a global dataset of local ant richness extracted from the literature. We then relate the globally derived values of local richness to two energy-related predictors—productive energy (NDVI) and temperature, and to precipitation, and compare the data from the FB and SKB with these relationships. We further compare our local richness estimates with that of similar habitats worldwide, and regional ant richness with estimates derived from other regions. The local ant species richness of the FB and SKB falls within the general global pattern relating ant richness to energy, and is similar to that in comparable habitats elsewhere. At a regional scale, the richness of ants across all of our sites is not exceptional by comparison with other regional estimates from across the globe.

Conclusions/Significance

Local richness of ants in the FB and SKB is not exceptional by global standards. Initial analyses suggest that regional diversity is also not exceptional for the group. It seems unlikely that the mechanisms which have contributed to the development of extraordinarily high regional plant diversity in these biomes have had a strong influence on the ants.  相似文献   

9.
The relationship between plant species richness and primary productivity has long been a central topic in biodiversity research. In this paper, we examine the relationship between species richness and productivity in four typical grasslands of Northern China at different spatial scales. At the community scale, a positive correlation was found for six of seven communities. A unimodal pattern was found only for one community (Stipa glareosa community), while at a large scale (vegetation type or landscape/region), the relationship was also found significantly positive. Species richness ranged from 4 to 35 species, and community aboveground productivity from 13 to 368 g·m−2·a−1. The highest species richness and aboveground productivity were found in alpine meadow, followed by meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe. Translated from Biodiversity Science, 2006, 14(1): 21–28 [译自: 生物多样性]  相似文献   

10.
We tested two hypotheses to explain changes in species richness ofgall-forming insects. The first hypothesis proposes that gall-forming insectspecies richness increases as more potential host–plant species areavailable. The second hypothesis implies that soil fertility affects plantcolonization by gall-forming insects. Seven sites, representing strongdifferences in vegetation and soil were chosen at the Lacandona tropical rainforest region, Chiapas, Mexico. Overall, we found 1522 individual plantsbelonging to 340 different plant species. From this, we found gall-forminginsects on 737 (43.9%) plants and on 74 (22%) of total plant species. We found asignificant negative correlation between gall-forming insect species richnessand species richness of plants, which does not support the hypothesis that plantspecies richness is an important factor in generating the radiation ofgall-forming insects. Using phosphorus as an indicator of soil fertility, wefound the lowest number of plants with gall-forming insects and the smallestgall-forming insect load per individual plant in the more fertile soil(alluvial). In contrast, the highest number of plants with galls and the highestgall-forming insect load per plant were found at a savanna-like vegetationsite, where the poorest soil was recorded. These results did not support thesoil fertility hypothesis in terms of species richness, but did with respect toabundance of plants with galls.  相似文献   

11.
Grain (size of sampling units) affects the spatial resolution at which ecological patterns can be observed and analysed, and potentially has an important effect on the results of broad‐scale studies on diversity gradients. Here we examine the effect of grain on patterns of species richness and turnover in lowland rainforests of western Amazonia (Peru and Colombia). We inventoried pteridophytes (ferns and lycophytes), melastomes (Melastomataceae) and palms (Arecaceae) in four line transects of 22–29 km length. Different grains were obtained by aggregating original 100‐m‐long sampling units into larger segments up to 19.2 km long. With any given grain and plant group, local species richness varied considerably both within and among transects, and a transect segment that was species‐rich with one grain could be relatively species‐poor with another. Which transect had the highest vs lowest mean species richness per sampling unit (α richness) differed among plant groups. It also varied to some degree with grain, as transects differed in how rapidly local species richness increased with increasing grain. Patterns of species turnover were more consistently correlated among plant groups than patterns of species richness were, and NMDS ordinations were rather similar with all grains and plant groups. Floristic heterogeneity within the Amazonian terra firme rainforest seems to contain a general compositional pattern that is sufficiently robust to be detectable with various sampling schemes, but patterns of species richness appear more case‐specific. Therefore, using one plant group as an indicator for patterns in other plant groups can be expected to work better for species turnover than for species richness.  相似文献   

12.
The Cape Floristic Region (CFR) is characterized by exceptionally high plant species richness and it is yet to be determined whether this is matched by an equally high diversity of insect fauna associated with these plants. In an attempt to do this, data from the literature on the number of insects for various taxa found at different sites in the CFR were compared with equivalent data from other areas in South Africa and elsewhere. Results indicate that the herbivorous insect fauna of the CFR is not particularly rich in species, perhaps except for the small guild of endophagous insects. It is speculated that this is the result of CFR vegetation being a poor food source for herbivores, particularly in view of its sclerophyllous nature. Plant defence mechanisms, such as a pronounced cyanogenic ability of the leaves coupled with the relatively simple architecture of the plants are possible contributing factors.  相似文献   

13.
We investigated how the high small-scale species richness of an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, is maintained. This area is characterized by strong wind and severe cold during long winters. In winter, most livestock is grazed on dead leaves in small pastures near farmers’ residences, whereas in the short summer, livestock is grazed in mountainous areas far from farmers’ residences. The number of plant species and the aboveground biomass were surveyed for three adjacent pastures differing in grazing management: a late-winter grazing pasture grazed moderately from 1 February to 30 April, an early-winter grazing pasture grazed lightly from 20 September to late October, and a whole-year grazing pasture grazed intensively throughout the entire year. In each pasture, we harvested the aboveground biomass from 80 or 100 quadrats of 0.01 m2 along a transect and classified the contents by species. We observed 15.5–19.7 species per 0.01 m2, which is high richness per 0.01 m2 on a worldwide scale. The species richness in the two winter grazing pastures was higher than that in the whole-year grazing pasture. The spatial variation in species richness and species composition in the two winter grazing pastures in which species richness was high was greater than that in the whole-year grazing pasture in which species richness was lower. Most of the leaves that are preserved on the winter grazing pastures during summer are blown away by strong winds during winter, and the remaining leaves are completely exhausted in winter by livestock grazing. A pasture with a high richess is accompanied by a high spatial variation in species richness and species composition. There is a high possibility that the characteristic of spatial variation is also caused by traditional grazing practices in this area.  相似文献   

14.
One hypothesis for the latitudinal gradient in species richness observed in most animal taxa is that the richness of a region is determined by its geographic area. However, the relationship between geographic area and species richness across regions is generally weak. It has been suggested that this is because species from the tropics spill out of this region of high richness, artificially inflating the richness of other regions. This generates the interesting prediction that the area and richness of extra-tropical regions should be more strongly correlated if tropical species are excluded. We test this prediction using the avifauna of the New World. We find that there is indeed a relationship between the land area and species richness of a region once tropical species are excluded. This relationship is independent of the latitude and productivity of regions. Both latitude and productivity can explain variance in richness unexplained by land area. There is no relationship between land area and species richness if tropical species are not excluded from the analysis, suggesting that tropical species do indeed mask the relationship between richness and area. We conclude that our results generally support the geographic area hypothesis, although tests of its other predictions and on other land masses are required.  相似文献   

15.
Insect diversity in Cape fynbos and neighbouring South African vegetation   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Aim  It has often been suggested that South Africa's Cape fynbos shrublands, although extremely rich in plant species, are poor in insects, thus representing a notable exception from the broad plant–insect diversity relationship. The aims of this study were to compare the diversity patterns of plant-inhabiting insects in fynbos and the vegetation of three neighbouring biomes (grassland, subtropical thicket, and Nama-karoo), and to test for a general relationship between plant diversity and insect diversity across these biomes.
Location  South-western to south-eastern South Africa.
Methods  We conducted seasonal plant surveys and sweep insect sampling in 10 × 10 m plots in the Baviaanskloof Conservation Area (Eastern Cape), where all four biomes occur. We also conducted once-only collections in the core area of each biome.
Results  Fynbos plots had insect diversity values similar to those of grassland and subtropical thicket (a dense, evergreen and spinescent shrubland with a high abundance of succulents and climbers), and significantly higher than Nama-karoo (an open, semiarid shrubland). A remarkably strong positive relationship was found between plant and insect species richness.
Main conclusions  Previous generalizations were based on a few insect groups (e.g. butterflies, under-represented in fynbos), but ignored published results on other groups (e.g. galling insects, which are in fact over-represented in this vegetation). We show that, overall, insect diversity in fynbos is comparable to that of neighbouring biomes. Fynbos vegetation does not represent a significant exception from the broad positive relationship between plant diversity and insect diversity.  相似文献   

16.
Bird species richness is mediated by local, regional, and historical factors, for example, competition, environmental heterogeneity, contemporary, and historical climate. Here, we related bird species richness with phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages, plant species richness, topography, contemporary climate, and glacial‐interglacial climate change to investigate the relative importance of these factors. This study was conducted in Inner Mongolia, an arid and semiarid region with diverse vegetation types and strong species richness gradients. The following associated variables were included as follows: phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages (Net Relatedness Index, NRI), plant species richness, altitudinal range, contemporary climate (mean annual temperature and precipitation, MAT and MAP), and contemporary‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) change in climate (change in MAT and change in MAP). Ordinary least squares linear, simultaneous autoregressive linear, and Random Forest models were used to assess the associations between these variables and bird species richness across this region. We found that bird species richness was correlated negatively with NRI and positively with plant species richness and altitudinal range, with no significant correlations with contemporary climate and glacial–interglacial climate change. The six best combinations of variables ranked by Random Forest models consistently included NRI, plant species richness, and contemporary‐LGM change in MAT. Our results suggest important roles of local ecological factors in shaping the distribution of bird species richness across this semiarid region. Our findings highlight the potential importance of these local ecological factors, for example, environmental heterogeneity, habitat filtering, and biotic interactions, in biodiversity maintenance.  相似文献   

17.
Herbaceous and woody alien plants visible from a moving vehicle were recorded along 1 km roadside transects at 5 km intervals over a distance of 5869 km in the semi-arid and arid Fynbos, Succulent Karoo, Nama Karoo and Arid Savanna (Kalahari) biomes in South Africa. Each 1 km transect was classified by biome and vegetation type, mean annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality, soil surface type and landuse adjoining the roadside. Although travelling speed affected the range and frequency of plant species observed, the method was repeatable at a speed of 100 km h?1. Alien plants occurred in 98% of 119 Fynbos, 81% of 204 Succulent Karoo, 72% of 661 Nama Karoo, 47% of 171 Arid Savanna and 100% of seventeen Grassland transects. Alien species richness per site was correlated with mean annual rainfall, but in all regions, sites adjacent to cultivation had significantly more alien species than sites adjoining rangeland. The alien plant assemblage of the arid winter-rainfall Succulent Karoo included species from mesic winter-rainfall lowland Fynbos and the arid Nama Karoo receives unseasonal rainfall. The frequencies of Prosopis spp., Atriplex spp. and Opuntia ficus-indica were not significantly greater near cultivation, and these perennial plants, all of which are dispersed by indigenous and domestic animals, can invade natural rangeland in arid and semi-arid southern Africa.  相似文献   

18.
The relationship between plant species richness and primary productivity has long been acentral topic in biodiversity research.In this paper,we examine the relationship between species richness and productivity in four typical grasslands of Northern China at different spatial scales.At the community scale,a positive correlation was found for six of seven communities.A unimodal pattern was found only for one community (Stipa glareosa community),while at a large scale (vegetation type or landscape/region),the relationship was also found significantly positive.Species richness ranged from 4 to 35 species,and community aboveground productiand aboveground productivity were found in alpine meadow,followed by meadow steppe,typical steppe and desert steppe.  相似文献   

19.
Aim Many high‐latitude floras contain more calcicole than calcifuge vascular plant species. The species pool hypothesis explains this pattern through an historical abundance of high‐pH soils in the Pleistocene and an associated opportunity for the evolutionary accumulation of calcicoles. To obtain insights into the history of calcicole/calcifuge patterns, we studied species richness–pH–climate relationships across a climatic gradient, which included cool and dry landscapes resembling the Pleistocene environments of northern Eurasia. Location Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia. Methods Vegetation and environmental variables were sampled at steppe, forest and tundra sites varying in climate and soil pH, which ranged from 3.7 to 8.6. Species richness was related to pH and other variables using linear models and regression trees. Results Species richness is higher in areas with warmer winters and at medium altitudes that are warmer than the mountains and wetter than the lowlands. In treeless vegetation, the species richness–pH relationship is unimodal. In tundra vegetation, which occurs on low‐pH soils, richness increases with pH, but it decreases in steppes, which have high‐pH soils. In forests, where soils are more acidic than in the open landscape, the species richness–pH relationship is monotonic positive. Most species occur on soils with a pH of 6–7. Main conclusions Soil pH in continental southern Siberia is strongly negatively correlated with precipitation, and species richness is determined by the opposite effects of these two variables. Species richness increases with pH until the soil is very dry. In dry soils, pH is high but species richness decreases due to drought stress. Thus, the species richness–pH relationship is unimodal in treeless vegetation. Trees do not grow on the driest soils, which results in a positive species richness–pH relationship in forests. If modern species richness resulted mainly from the species pool effects, it would suggest that historically common habitats had moderate precipitation and slightly acidic to neutral soils.  相似文献   

20.
Aim To compare theoretical approaches towards estimating risks of plant species loss to anthropogenic climate change impacts in a biodiversity hotspot, and to develop a practical method to detect signs of climate change impacts on natural populations. Location The Fynbos biome of South Africa, within the Cape Floristic Kingdom. Methods Bioclimatic modelling was used to identify environmental limits for vegetation at both biome and species scale. For the biome as a whole, and for 330 species of the endemic family Proteaceae, tolerance limits were determined for five temperature and water availability‐related parameters assumed critical for plant survival. Climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models HadCM2 and CSM were interpolated for the region. Geographic Information Systems‐based methods were used to map current and future modelled ranges of the biome and 330 selected species. In the biome‐based approach, predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family Proteaceae to estimate extinction risk. In the species‐based approach, predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk. A method of identifying local populations imminently threatened by climate change‐induced mortality is also described. Results A loss of Fynbos biome area of between 51% and 65% is projected by 2050 (depending on the climate scenario used), and roughly 10% of the endemic Proteaceae have ranges restricted to the area lost. Species range projections suggest that a third could suffer complete range dislocation by 2050, and only 5% could retain more than two thirds of their range. Projected changes to individual species ranges could be sufficient to detect climate change impacts within ten years. Main conclusions The biome‐level approach appears to underestimate the risk of species diversity loss from climate change impacts in the Fynbos Biome because many narrow range endemics suffer range dislocation throughout the biome, and not only in areas identified as biome contractions. We suggest that targeted vulnerable species could be monitored both for early warning signs of climate change and as empirical tests of predictions.  相似文献   

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