Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO₂, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long‐term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present‐day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural‐forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.     

Alpine treelines as ecological indicators of global climate change: Who has studied? What has been studied?

As the “front line” of coping with global climate change, the alpine treeline has been widely investigated by ecologists for a long time. In this study, 3180 articles in the Web of Science database from 2000 to 2021 are visualized by using CiteSpace bibliometric software from the perspectives of basic literature features (volume, discipline, journal, author, institution, and country), academic layout, research hotspot, and research frontier to have a deeper understanding of the development laws and hot spots in the alpine treeline. Results show that: (1) The number of papers published in alpine treeline research field is increasing annually, and the professional degree of papers (Sp) is 0.13–0.14, it is lower than that in other fields, implying a tendency of multi-disciplinary integration . (2) The core journals are headed by Arctic and Alpine Research, and J. Julio Camarero is the most prolific author in the field. (3) From the analysis of countries and institutions, the United States and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have leading positions in this research field. (4) Over the last 20 years, alpine treeline researchers have primarily focused on three key words (climate change, environmental characteristics, interspecific interactions, etc.), research sites (National Glacier Parks, the Alps, the Sygera Mountains, etc.), and research species (Norway spruce, European spruce, Abies georgei, etc.). (5) The first phase (2000–2009) focuses on the formation and changes of the alpine treeline in the context of climate change, and the second phase (2010−2021) focuses on the driving mechanisms of climatic factors, physiological change of tree species and grasslands on the treeline ecotones, and the influence of human activities (logging, grazing, etc.) on the alpine treeline. (6) Academic publications in this discipline have a short half-life (3.85 ± 1.70 years), and the aging rate is high and changing quickly. In the coming years, more research on alpine treeline will be devoted to explain the mechanism of tree species limitation in alpine treeline under climate change, influence of treeline changes the carbon and water cycles. There is a press need to explore the driving mechanism for treeline shift from the perspectives of plant physiology and soil carbon and nitrogen cycles.     

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid,Tipularia discolor

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June–July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60 %, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2–0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10–40 % of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.     

Are outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) associated with global warming?

Outbreaks of the Nilaparvata lugens (St?l), have occurred frequently in China during the past few years, resulting in a broad and significant reduction in rice yield. N. lugens immigrate into China each spring from Southeast Asia, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is the first area affected. Light trap catches for the early season period (March-June) in Guangxi for the past 30 yr have been analyzed, and the catch sequences for five observation stations (Longzhou, Hepu, Yongning Yongfu, and Quanzhou) were studied in detail. It was found that during the past 10 yr the first appearance of N. lugens at light traps occurs earlier, there is a higher frequency of days with large light-trap catches, and catches in southern Guangxi are larger. Recently light-trap catches have also increased in northern Guangxi. It is concluded that the increasing number of immigrants from overseas is one of the primary reasons for the increase in N. lugens outbreaks in the past 10 yr. Global warming, and specifically winter temperature increases, appears to be for a factor accelerating outbreaks of N. lugens in Asia.     

Are there links between responses of soil microbes and ecosystem functioning to elevated CO2, N deposition and warming? A global perspective

In recent years, there has been an increase in research to understand how global changes’ impacts on soil biota translate into altered ecosystem functioning. However, results vary between global change effects, soil taxa, and ecosystem processes studied, and a synthesis of relationships is lacking. Therefore, here we initiate such a synthesis to assess whether the effect size of global change drivers (elevated CO₂, N deposition, and warming) on soil microbial abundance is related with the effect size of these drivers on ecosystem functioning (plant biomass, soil C cycle, and soil N cycle) using meta‐analysis and structural equation modeling. For N deposition and warming, the global change effect size on soil microbes was positively associated with the global change effect size on ecosystem functioning, and these relationships were consistent across taxa and ecosystem processes. However, for elevated CO₂, such links were more taxon and ecosystem process specific. For example, fungal abundance responses to elevated CO₂ were positively correlated with those of plant biomass but negatively with those of the N cycle. Our results go beyond previous assessments of the sensitivity of soil microbes and ecosystem processes to global change, and demonstrate the existence of general links between the responses of soil microbial abundance and ecosystem functioning. Further we identify critical areas for future research, specifically altered precipitation, soil fauna, soil community composition, and litter decomposition, that are need to better quantify the ecosystem consequences of global change impacts on soil biodiversity.     

More,smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have largely overlooked this functional group. Here, time series analysis of a decade of monthly observations in temperate Atlantic coastal waters revealed strong seasonal patterns in the abundance, size and biomass of the ubiquitous flow-cytometric groups of low (LNA) and high nucleic acid (HNA) content bacteria. Over this relatively short period, we also found that bacterioplankton cells were significantly smaller, a trend that is consistent with the hypothesized temperature-driven decrease in body size. Although decadal cell shrinking was observed for both groups, it was only LNA cells that were strongly coherent, with ecological theories linking temperature, abundance and individual size on both the seasonal and interannual scale. We explain this finding because, relative to their HNA counterparts, marine LNA bacteria are less diverse, dominated by members of the SAR11 clade. Temperature manipulation experiments in 2012 confirmed a direct effect of warming on bacterial size. Concurrent with rising temperatures in spring, significant decadal trends of increasing standing stocks (3% per year) accompanied by decreasing mean cell size (−1% per year) suggest a major shift in community structure, with a larger contribution of LNA bacteria to total biomass. The increasing prevalence of these typically oligotrophic taxa may severely impact marine food webs and carbon fluxes by an overall decrease in the efficiency of the biological pump.     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology – which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change – respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901–2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.     

Are the patterns of regeneration in the endangered Eucalyptus gunnii ssp. divaricata shifting in response to climate?

Increasing drought frequency is a major driver of changes in forest structure and has been implicated in the decline of the endangered tree species, Eucalyptus gunnii ssp. divaricata (McAulay & Brett) in the Central Plateau region of Tasmania, Australia. In this study, we examined patterns of regeneration, aspects of the water relations of E. gunnii ssp. divaricata and its replacement Eucalyptus pauciflora and, whether shifts in stand dominance have occurred where the subspecies co‐occurs with E. pauciflora could be related to recent changes in climate. Successful E. gunnii ssp. divaricata seedling regeneration was restricted to micro‐sites with relatively deep soils within slight depressions. In contrast, poor E. gunnii ssp. divaricata regeneration and declining adult cohorts of this species all occurred on steeper, concave micro‐sites with shallow soils. This apparent shift in suitable regeneration micro‐site, from sites with shallow to deeper soils, may be linked to an observed 25% reduction in summer rainfall over the last 50 years. On slopes surrounding waterlogged depressions where E. gunnii ssp. divaricata co‐occurs with E. pauciflora, E. pauciflora was in higher abundance than E. gunnii ssp. divaricata in small adult and sapling size‐classes, compared with the adult cohorts (>30 cm d.b.h.), a trend consistent with a shift in stand dominance. Despite existing paradigms related to differential drought tolerance between these two species as a driver of this shift in stand dominance, there were no differences in predawn (Ψ_pd) water potentials between species. Furthermore, pressure–volume analysis showed that E. gunnii ssp. divaricata had lower values for osmotic potential at turgor loss point (?2.33 ± 0.06 MPa) than E. pauciflora (?2.13 ± 0.03 MPa), suggesting that E. gunnii ssp. divaricata may be more drought tolerant than E. pauciflora, in contrast to the prevailing paradigm that it is more susceptible to drought than E. pauciflora.     

Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?

A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change.     

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%–12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO₂. Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle‐climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions now and in future, and to CO₂ from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO₂ from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non‐CO₂ livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO₂ emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal.     

BVOCs: plant defense against climate warming?

Plants emit a substantial amount of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the atmosphere. These BVOCs represent a large carbon loss and can be up to approximately 10% of that fixed by photosynthesis under stressful conditions and up to 100gCm(-2) per year in some tropical ecosystems. Among a variety of proven and unproven BVOC functions in plants and roles in atmospheric processes, recent data intriguingly link emission of these compounds to climate. Ongoing research demonstrates that BVOCs could protect plants against high temperatures. BVOC emissions are probably increasing with warming and with other factors associated to global change, including changes in land cover. These increases in BVOC emissions could contribute in a significant way (via negative and positive feedback) to the complex processes associated with global warming.     

Is earlier spring migration of Tatarstan warblers expected under climate warming?

We analysed data on the arrival dates of four species of leaf warbler (genus Phylloscopus) collected in Tatarstan between 1957 and 2004. There was no evidence over the whole period that the warblers returned to their breeding sites significantly earlier, mainly because local temperatures for April and May, months when the majority of birds arrived from their wintering grounds, did not increase significantly. However, arrival dates of two species (Chiffchaff P. collybita and Willow warbler P.trochilus) were strongly related to local temperature in April, and that of Greenish warbler P. trochiloides to that in May. As expected, arrival dates for the three species wintering in Africa (Chiffchaff, Willow and Wood warblers P. sibilatrix) correlated positively with one another (P < 0.01 in all cases), but were not correlated with arrival dates of Greenish warbler (P > 0.5 in all cases), a species wintering in the Indian sub-continent.     

Shifting altitudinal distribution of outbreak zones of winter moth Operophtera brumata in sub‐arctic birch forest: a response to recent climate warming?

Climatic change is expected to affect the extent and severity of geometrid moth outbreaks, a major disturbance factor in sub-arctic birch forests. Previous studies have reported that the two geometrid species involved, autumnal moth and winter moth, differ in their temperature requirements and, consequently, in their altitudinal and latitudinal distribution patterns. In this study, we document the altitudinal distribution of winter moth outbreaks in a large coastal area in northern Norway. We show that, in the present winter moth outbreak, defoliated birch stands were seen as distinct zones with a rather constant width in the uppermost part of the forest and where the upper limit coincided with the forest line. The outbreak zone closely followed the spatially variable forest line as an undulating belt, although some of the variation in outbreak zone width was also related to variation in topographical variables, such as distance from the coast, forest line altitude, and slope of the terrain. A distinct outbreak zone at the altitudinal forest line is the typical picture that has been depicted in more qualitative historical records on previous outbreaks of autumnal moth rather than winter moth. We suggest that the recent documented climate warming in this region may have induced a shift in distribution of the winter moth both relative to topography and geography. Further investigation is, however, required to substantiate these suspicions.     

Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.     

Rehabilitating a biological notion of race? A response to Sesardic

The point Sesardic (Biol Philos 25: 143–162, 2010) makes about the possibility of distinguishing groups for which there is a lot of within-group variation is not sufficient to rehabilitate a biological concept of race. In this note, I sketch a number of issues that quickly arise once we delve more deeply into the relevant scientific knowledge, concepts, methods, and questions for inquiry.