Using spotlight observations to predict resource selection and abundance for white-tailed deer

Spotlight surveys for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can yield large presence-only datasets applicable to a variety of resource selection modeling procedures. By understanding how populations distribute according to a given resource for a reference area, density and abundance can be predicted across new areas assuming the relationship between habitat quality (measured by an index of selection) and species distribution are equivalent. Habitat-based density estimators have been applied to wildlife species and are useful for addressing conservation and management concerns. Although achieving reliable population estimates is a primary goal for spotlighting studies, presence-only models have yet to be applied to spotlight data for estimating habitat selection and abundance for deer. From 2012 to 2017, we conducted spring spotlight surveys in each of 99 counties in Iowa, USA, and collected spatial locations for 20,149 groups of deer (n = 71,323 individuals). We used a resource selection function (RSF) based on deer locations to predict the relative probability of use for deer at the population level and to estimate statewide abundance. The number of deer observed statewide increased significantly with increasing RSF value for all years and the mean RSF value along survey transects explained 59% of the variability in county-level deer counts, indicating that a functional response between habitat quality and deer distribution existed at landscape scales. We applied our RSF to a habitat-based density estimator (extrapolation) and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) count models to predict statewide abundance from spotlight counts. Population estimates for 2012 were variable, indicating that atypical weather conditions may affect spotlight counts and population estimates in some years. For 2013–2017, we predicted a mean population of 439,129 (95% CI ∼ ± 55,926), 440,360 (∼ ± 43,676), and 465,959 (∼ ± 51,242) deer across years for extrapolation, ZIP, and ZINB models, respectively. Estimates from all models were not significantly different than estimates from an existing deer population accounting model in Iowa for 2013 and 2016, and differed by <76,000 deer for all models from 2013–2017. Extrapolation and ZIP models performed similarly and differed by <2,897 deer across all years, whereas ZINB models showed inconsistencies in model convergence and precision of estimates. Our results indicate that presence-only models are capable of producing reliable and precise estimates of resource selection and abundance for deer at broad landscape scales in Iowa and provide a tool for estimating deer abundance in a spatially explicit manner. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Temporal resource variability and the habitat-matching rule

Summary The ideal free distribution of competitors in a heterogeneous environment often predicts habitat matching, where the equilibrium number of consumers in a patch is proportional to resource abundance in that patch. We model the interaction between habitat matching and temporal variation in resource abundance. In one patch the rate of resource input follows a Markov chain; a second patch does not vary temporally. We predict patch use by scaling transition rates in the variable patch to the time that consumers require to respond to changes in rates of resource input. If consumers respond very quickly, habitat matching tracks temporal variability. If resource input fluctuates faster than consumers respond, habitat matching averages over the equilibrium of the Markov chain. Tracking and averaging produce the same mean resource consumption for individuals, but long-term mean occupation of the patches differs. When habitat matching tracks temporal variability in resources, consumer density in the variable patch has a lower mean and a higher variance than when habitat matching reflects only average rates of resource input.We tested our model by feeding free-living mallard ducks (Anas platyrynchos) at two artificial patches. The foragers' behavior satisfied the quantitative predictions of the model in each of two experiments.     

Bayesian spatial modeling of moose count data: increasing estimator efficiency and exploring ecological hypotheses

Moose management throughout much of Alaska and Canada relies on aerial count data, which are commonly collected using the geospatial population estimator (GSPE) protocol. The GSPE uses a model-based analytical approach and finite-population block kriging to estimate abundance from a collection of sampled survey units. Widespread implementation and well-documented analytical software have resulted in reliable estimates of moose abundance, density, and composition across a large proportion of their range. Analysis is conducted almost exclusively using the GSPE software, which fits a fixed model structure to data collected within a single year. The downside of this approach to analysis is that the fixed model structure is inefficient for estimation, leading to more field effort than would otherwise be necessary to achieve a desired level of estimator precision. We developed a more easily modified and flexible Bayesian spatial general additive model approach (BSG) that accommodates spatial and temporal covariates (e.g., habitat characteristics, trend), multiple survey events, prior information, and incomplete detection. Using a series of 6 GSPE surveys conducted in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, Alaska, USA, from 2003–2019, we established the equivalence of the 2 approaches under similar model structures. We then extended the BSG to demonstrate how a more comprehensive approach to analysis can affect estimator precision and be used to assess ecological relationships. The precision of annual abundance estimators from the BSG were improved by an average of 43% over those based on the standard GSPE analysis, highlighting the very real costs of assuming a fixed (i.e., suboptimal) model structure. The population increased at a rate of 2.3%/year (95% CrI = 0.8–3.8%), and the increase was largely explained by a parallel increase in wildfire extent (i.e., high quality moose habitat). These results suggest that our approach could be used to increase estimator efficiency or decrease future survey costs without any modifications to the basic protocol. While modification of the GSPE software is possible, practitioners may find the BSG approach more convenient for quickly developing model structures for a particular application, thereby allowing them to extract more information from existing and future datasets.     

Space use and social association in a gregarious ungulate: Testing the conspecific attraction and resource dispersion hypotheses

Animals use a variety of proximate cues to assess habitat quality when resources vary spatiotemporally. Two nonmutually exclusive strategies to assess habitat quality involve either direct assessment of landscape features or observation of social cues from conspecifics as a form of information transfer about forage resources. The conspecific attraction hypothesis proposes that individual space use is dependent on the distribution of conspecifics rather than the location of resource patches, whereas the resource dispersion hypothesis proposes that individual space use and social association are driven by the abundance and distribution of resources. We tested the conspecific attraction and the resource dispersion hypotheses as two nonmutually exclusive hypotheses explaining social association and of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus). We used location data from GPS collars to estimate interannual site fidelity and networks representing home range overlap and social associations among individual caribou. We found that home range overlap and social associations were correlated with resource distribution in summer and conspecific attraction in winter. In summer, when resources were distributed relatively homogeneously, interannual site fidelity was high and home range overlap and social associations were low. Conversely, in winter when resources were distributed relatively heterogeneously, interannual site fidelity was low and home range overlap and social associations were high. As access to resources changes across seasons, caribou appear to alter social behavior and space use. In summer, caribou may use cues associated with the distribution of forage, and in winter caribou may use cues from conspecifics to access forage. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of caribou socioecology, suggesting that caribou use season‐specific strategies to locate forage. Caribou populations continue to decline globally, and our finding that conspecific attraction is likely related to access to forage suggests that further fragmentation of caribou habitat could limit social association among caribou, particularly in winter when access to resources may be limited.     

Estimating breeding season abundance of golden-cheeked warblers in Texas,USA

Population abundance estimates using predictive models are important for describing habitat use and responses to population-level impacts, evaluating conservation status of a species, and for establishing monitoring programs. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is a neotropical migratory bird that was listed as federally endangered in 1990 because of threats related to loss and fragmentation of its woodland habitat. Since listing, abundance estimates for the species have mainly relied on localized population studies on public lands and qualitative-based methods. Our goal was to estimate breeding population size of male warblers using a predictive model based on metrics for patches of woodland habitat throughout the species' breeding range. We first conducted occupancy surveys to determine range-wide distribution. We then conducted standard point-count surveys on a subset of the initial sampling locations to estimate density of males. Mean observed patch-specific density was 0.23 males/ha (95% CI = 0.197–0.252, n = 301). We modeled the relationship between patch-specific density of males and woodland patch characteristics (size and landscape composition) and predicted patch occupancy. The probability of patch occupancy, derived from a model that used patch size and landscape composition as predictor variables while addressing effects of spatial relatedness, best predicted patch-specific density. We predicted patch-specific densities as a function of occupancy probability and estimated abundance of male warblers across 63,616 woodland patches accounting for 1.678 million ha of potential warbler habitat. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, our approach yielded a range-wide male warbler population estimate of 263,339 (95% CI: 223,927–302,620). Our results provide the first abundance estimate using habitat and count data from a sampling design focused on range-wide inference. Managers can use the resulting model as a tool to support conservation planning and guide recovery efforts. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Investigating the potential use of aerial line transect surveys for estimating polar bear abundance in sea ice habitats: A case study for the Chukchi Sea

The expense of traditional capture‐recapture methods, interest in less invasive survey methods, and the circumpolar decline of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat require evaluation of alternative methods for monitoring polar bear populations. Aerial line transect distance sampling (DS) surveys are thought to be a promising monitoring tool. However, low densities and few observations during a survey can result in low precision, and logistical constraints such as heavy ice and fuel and safety limitations may restrict survey coverage. We used simulations to investigate the accuracy and precision of, DS for estimating polar bear abundance in sea ice habitats, using the Chukchi Sea subpopulation as an example. Simulation parameters were informed from a recent pilot survey. Predictions from a resource selection model were used for stratification, and we compared two ratio estimators to account for areas that cannot be sampled. The ratio estimator using predictions of resource selection by polar bears allowed for extrapolation beyond sampled areas and provided results with low bias and CVs ranging from 21% to 36% when abundance was >1,000. These techniques could be applied to other DS surveys to allocate effort and potentially extrapolate estimates to include portions of the landscape that are logistically impossible to survey.     

The scaling of abundance in consumers and their resources: implications for the energy equivalence rule

The negative scaling of plant and animal abundance with body mass is one of the most fundamental relationships in ecology. However, theoretical approaches to explain this phenomenon make the unrealistic assumption that species share a homogeneous resource. Here we present a simple model linking mass and metabolism with density that includes the effects of consumer size on resource characteristics (particle size, density, and distribution). We predict patterns consistent with the energy equivalence rule (EER) under some scenarios. However, deviations from EER occur as a result of variation in resource distribution and productivity (e.g., due to the clumping of prey or variation in food particle size selection). We also predict that abundance scaling exponents change with the dimensionality of the foraging habitat. Our model predictions explain several inconsistencies in the observed scaling of vertebrate abundance among ecological and taxonomic groups and provide a broad framework for understanding variation in abundance.     

Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population

1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change.     

The distinct effects of habitat fragmentation on population size

We sought to understand how the separation of habitats into spatially isolated fragments influences the abundance of organisms. Using a simple, deterministic model of population growth, we compared analytically exact solutions predicting abundance of consumers in two isolated patches with abundance of consumers in a single large patch where the carrying capacity of the large patch is the sum of the carrying capacities of the isolated ones. For the deterministic model, the effect of fragmentation was to slow the rate of population growth in the fragmented habitat relative to the intact one. We also analyzed a stochastic version of the model to examine the effect of fragmentation on population abundance when resources vary randomly in time. For the stochastic model, the effect of fragmentation was to reduce population abundance. We proved in closed-form, that for a non-equilibrium population exhibiting logistic population growth, fragmentation will reduce population size even when the total carrying capacity is not affected by fragmentation. We provide a theoretical basis for the prediction that habitat fragmentation amplifies the effect of habitat loss on the abundance of mobile organisms.     

Resource Abundance and Invasiveness: A Simple Model

The 'invasiveness' of an alien species depends partly on its ability to become abundant and widespread in its new environment. While competitiveness may be an important component of this ability, so too is the abundance of resource or habitat. First, the local carrying capacity will depend on the local favourability of the habitat, hence the global density will depend on how widespread the habitat is. Second, and more subtly, the local density will also be affected by the global extent of favourable habitat, because of losses occasioned by dispersal when the population redistributes; these losses should be fewer the greater the contiguous area of favourable habitat or the more patches of such habitat across the landscape. Here we describe a model which demonstrates how habitat availability affects an invading speciesèquilibrium abundance, hence its invasiveness. The model shows that local density is likely to be an increasing function of global habitat abundance, and global density to be a non-linear, concave-up function of global habitat abundance. Examples are given to support the model's predictions, taken largely from alien species in New Zealand.     

The role of predation in the decline and extirpation of woodland caribou

To select appropriate recovery strategies for endangered populations, we must understand the dynamics of small populations and distinguish between the possible causes that drive such populations to low numbers. It has been suggested that the pattern of population decline may be inversely density-dependent with population growth rates decreasing as populations become very small; however, empirical evidence of such accelerated declines at low densities is rare. Here we analyzed the pattern of decline of a threatened population of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada. Using information on the instantaneous rate of increase relative to caribou density in suitable winter foraging habitat, as well as on pregnancy rates and on causes and temporal distribution of mortalities from a sample of 349 radiocollared animals from 15 subpopulations, we tested 3 hypothesized causes of decline: (a) food regulation caused by loss of suitable winter foraging habitat, (b) predation-sensitive foraging caused by loss of suitable winter foraging habitat and (c) predation with caribou being secondary prey. Population sizes of caribou subpopulations ranged from <5 to >500 individuals. Our results showed that the rates of increase of these subpopulations varied from −0.1871 to 0.0496 with smaller subpopulations declining faster than larger subpopulations. Rates of increase were positively related to the density of caribou in suitable winter foraging habitat. Pregnancy rates averaged 92.4% ±2.24 and did not differ among subpopulations. In addition, we found predation to be the primary cause of mortality in 11 of 13 subpopulations with known causes of mortality and predation predominantly occurred during summer. These results are consistent with predictions that caribou subpopulations are declining as a consequence of increased predation. Recovery of these woodland caribou will thus require a multispecies perspective and an appreciation for the influence of inverse density dependence on population trajectories.     

京杭运河邵伯高邮段栖息地破碎化对狗獾种群数量分布的影响

栖息地破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。栖息地破碎引起的面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应能影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布、多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程, 最终影响动物种群的数量分布。2006年10-11月和2007年10-11月, 利用全球定位系统(GPS)、地理信息系统(GIS)和样方法定量分析京杭运河邵伯至高邮段狗獾栖息地破碎化程度, 确定不同斑块的面积、斑块距离、斑块隔离度以及栖息地质量对斑块中狗獾数量分布的影响。结果表明, 各个斑块内狗獾的洞口数、粪堆数与该斑块的面积显著的正相关(r=0.961, P=0.039; r=0.999, P=0.023), 但与斑块距离、斑块隔离度无显著的相关性(P>0.05)。栖息地的质量也会影响狗獾的数量分布, 多元线性逐步回归分析表明, 人类干扰和与栖息地的郁闭性显著的影响狗獾的数量分布。以上结果说明, 京杭运河邵伯高邮段栖息地的破碎化程度对狗獾的数量分布还没有造成显著的直接影响, 但会间接降低栖息地的质量, 进而影响狗獾的生存。     

Effects of forest fragmentation on the winter body condition and population parameters of an habitat generalist,the wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus: a test of hypotheses

Three main causal hypotheses have been proposed to explain the inverse relationships between habitat patch size and density of generalist mouse species in fragmented habitats: 1) enhanced habitat conditions as habitat patch size decreases; 2) inhibited emigration of excess individuals in small and isolated habitat patches; and 3) reduced territoriality in small patches because they are occupied temporarily by nonreproductive individuals. From the mechanism underlying each hypothesis, we derived predictions on the effects of fragment size on the body condition of individuals (measured both as absolute body size and as body mass relative to body size) and some demographic parameters of mouse populations related to reproductive output (sex-ratio and proportions of sexually active and recently-born individuals), and we tested such predictions with data from wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus wintering in three Spanish forest archipelagos in which the inverse relationship between forest patch size and mouse abundance had been previously proven. No differences in average body size or in average body mass relative to body size were detected among fragments. Mouse populations wintering in small fragments showed more male-biased sex-ratios, a larger proportion of sexually active adults and fewer juveniles as compared to mouse populations wintering in large fragments nearby. Results clearly rejected the third hypothesis and did not support the second one. It thus seemed that habitat conditions for mice improved as forest fragment size decreased, although the expected positive effects on individuals could have been prevented by relaxed territoriality and increased food resource depletion by denser mouse populations. Bearing in mind the negative effects of dense wood mice populations on the distribution, abundance and population dynamics of forest species, this apparent enhancement of habitat conditions for mice in small forest fragments could have far-reaching consequences for the long-term persistence of such fragments.     

Consequences for a host–parasitoid interaction of host-plant aggregation, isolation, and phenology

Abstract.  1. Spatial habitat structure can influence the likelihood of patch colonisation by dispersing individuals, and this likelihood may differ according to trophic position, potentially leading to a refuge from parasitism for hosts.
2. Whether habitat patch size, isolation, and host-plant heterogeneity differentially affected host and parasitoid abundance, and parasitism rates was tested using a tri-trophic thistle–herbivore–parasitoid system.
3.  Cirsium palustre thistles ( n = 240) were transplanted in 24 blocks replicated in two sites, creating a range of habitat patch sizes at increasing distance from a pre-existing source population. Plant architecture and phenological stage were measured for each plant and the numbers of the herbivore Tephritis conura and parasitoid Pteromalus elevatus recorded.
4. Mean herbivore numbers per plant increased with host-plant density per patch, but parasitoid numbers and parasitism rates were unaffected. Patch distance from the source population did not influence insect abundance or parasitism rates. Parasitoid abundance was positively correlated with host insect number, and parasitism rates were negatively density dependent. Host-plant phenological stage was positively correlated with herbivore and parasitoid abundance, and parasitism rates at both patch and host-plant scales.
5. The differential response between herbivore and parasitoid to host-plant density did not lead to a spatial refuge but may have contributed to the observed parasitism rates being negatively density dependent. Heterogeneity in patch quality, mediated by variation in host-plant phenology, was more important than spatial habitat structure for both the herbivore and parasitoid populations, and for parasitism rates.     

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi‐aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi‐aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30‐m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent‐predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability‐fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.     

Displacement of Mountain Caribou From Winter Habitat by Snowmobiles

Abstract: Mountain caribou are an ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) that live in subalpine forests in southeastern British Columbia, Canada, extending into northern Idaho and Washington, USA. These caribou are listed as Threatened in Canada, Endangered in the United States, and are the subject of recovery planning efforts in both countries. Many areas of mountain caribou winter habitat experience intensive use by recreational snowmobilers. During 4 surveys, we recorded caribou on all 4 census blocks with little or no snowmobile activity (x̄ density = 0.41 caribou/km²), but during 3 of 4 years, we observed no caribou on the census block with intensive snowmobile activity. The year we observed caribou on the snowmobile block, most were using areas inaccessible to snowmobiles. We used a Resource Selection Function (RSF) based on radiotelemetry data for the area to compare habitat quality among the different census blocks. The absence of caribou from the intensive snowmobile area during most years could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The RSF predicted that the intensive snowmobile area could support 53-96 caribou (95% CI). We conclude that intensive snowmobiling has displaced caribou from an area of suitable habitat. We recommend that snowmobile activity be restricted from all or most high-quality mountain caribou habitat as part of the recovery planning process.     

Patterns and processes of population dynamics with fluctuating habitat size: a case study of a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools

The logistic model is a fundamental population model often used as the basis for analyzing wildlife population dynamics. In the classic logistic model, however, population dynamics may be difficult to characterize if habitat size is temporally variable because population density can vary at a constant abundance, which results in variable strength of density‐dependent feedback for a given population size. To incorporate habitat size variability, we developed a general population model in which changes in population abundance, density, and habitat size are taken into account. From this model, we deduced several predictions for patterns and processes of population dynamics: 1) patterns of fluctuation in population abundance and density can diverge, with respect of their correlation and relative variability; and 2) along with density dependence, habitat size fluctuation can affect population growth with a time lag because changes in habitat size result in changes in population density. In order to test these predictions, we applied our model to population dynamics data of 36 populations of Tigriopus japonicus, a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools of variable sizes caused by weather processes. As expected, we found a significant difference in the fluctuation patterns of population abundance and density of T. japonicus populations with respect to the correlation between abundance and density and their relative variability, which correlates positively with the variability of habitat size. In addition, we found direct and lagged‐indirect effects of weather processes on population growth, which were associated with density dependence and impose regulatory forces on local and regional population dynamics. These results illustrate how changes in habitat size can have an impact on patterns and processes of wildlife population dynamics. We suggest that without knowledge of habitat size fluctuation, measures of population size and its variability as well as inferences about the processes of population dynamics may be misleading.     

Estimating Carrying Capacity for Sea Otters in British Columbia

ABSTRACT We estimated carrying capacity for sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the coastal waters of British Columbia, Canada, by characterizing habitat according to the complexity of nearshore intertidal and sub-tidal contours. We modeled the total area of complex habitat on the west coast of Vancouver Island by first calculating the complexity of the Checleset Bay-Kyuquot Sound (CB-KS) region, where sea otters have been at equilibrium since the mid-1990s. We then identified similarly complex areas on the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI model), and adapted the model to identify areas of similar complexity along the entire British Columbia coast (BC model). Using survey data from the CB-KS region, we calculated otter densities for the habitat predicted by the 2 models. The density estimates for CB-KS were 3.93 otters/km² and 2.53 otters/km² for the WCVI and BC models, respectively, and the resulting 2 estimates of west coast of Vancouver Island complex habitat carrying capacity were not significantly different (WCVI model: 5,123, 95% CI = 3,337–7,104; BC model: 4,883, 95% CI = 3,223–6,832). The BC model identified the region presently occupied by otters on the central British Columbia coast, but the amount of coast-wide habitat it predicted (5,862 km²) was relatively small, and the associated carrying capacity estimate (14,831, 95% CI = 9,790–20,751) was low compared to historical accounts. We suggest that our model captured a type of high-quality or optimum habitat prevalent on the west coast of Vancouver Island, typified by the CB-KS region, and that suitable sea otter habitat elsewhere on the coast must include other habitat characteristics. We therefore calculated a linear, coast-wide carrying capacity of 52,459 sea otters (95% CI = 34,264–73,489)—a more realistic upper limit to sea otters in British Columbia. Our carrying capacity estimates are helping set population recovery targets for sea otters in Canada, and our habitat predictions represent a first step in Critical Habitat identification. This habitat-based approach to estimating carrying capacity is likely suitable for other nonmigratory, density-dependent species.     

Calving rate,calf survival rate,and habitat selection of forest-dwelling caribou in a highly managed landscape

Logging negatively affects the threatened forest-dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) through its positive effects on large predator populations. As recruitment is a key component of caribou population growth rate, we assessed calving rates of females and calf survival rates during the most critical period for calf survival, the calving period. We also identified causes of calf mortality and investigated the influence of predation risk, food availability, and human disturbance on habitat selection of females during the calving period at both the home-range and forest stand scales. We hypothesized that caribou should display habitat selection patterns to reduce predation risk at both scales. Using telemetry, we followed 22 females and their calves from 2004 to 2007 in a highly managed study area in Québec, Canada. Most females (78.5 ± 0.05 [SE]) gave birth each year, but only 46.3 ± 8.0% of the calves survived during the first 50 days following birth, and 57.3 ± 14.9% of them died from black bear (Ursus americanus) predation. At the home-range scale, caribou selected calving areas located at upper slope positions and avoided high road density areas. Surprisingly, they also selected the forested habitat type having the lowest lateral cover (mixed and deciduous stands) while avoiding the highest cover (regenerating conifer stands). At the forest stand scale, caribou selected areas located at relatively high elevations and with a lower basal area of black spruce trees. The selection of upper slope positions likely favored spatial segregation between calving females and wolves (Canis lupus) but not black bear. Our results suggest that calving females used areas from which they could visually detect approaching predators. While wolf avoidance appeared to be effective in a highly managed landscape, caribou did not appear to have adjusted their predator avoidance strategy to the recent increase in black bear abundance, who have benefited from increased food abundance. This situation requires focused attention from wildlife managers as logging activities are progressing towards the north within the core of forest-dwelling caribou range. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.