Using the robust design framework and relative abundance to predict the population size of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the lower Missouri River

Several population viability models were constructed to aid recovery in endangered Scaphirhynchus albus, but these models are dependent upon accurate and precise input parameters that are not provided with standard catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices. Nine years of sampling efforts, under the robust design framework, provided 1223 unique captures with an 18·3% recapture rate. The annual population estimates varied from 4·0–7·3 fish rkm^?1 for wild and 8·4–18·4 fish rkm^?1 for hatchery‐reared S. albus. The relationship between abundance (N) and annual trot‐line CPUE indices (x = 70.726y + 2·533, R² = 0·91, P < 0·001) was used to predict an abundance of 13 616 ± 7142 s.e. S. albus in the lower Missouri River. The use of small‐scale intensive sampling to develop a relationship with relative abundance indices reported here, may provide a framework for other fisheries management applications where large‐scale intensive sampling is not feasible, but catch data are available.     

Point and interval estimation of baseline risk and treatment effect based on logistic model for observational studies

In observational studies with dichotomous outcome of a population, researchers usually report treatment effect alone, although both baseline risk and treatment effect are needed to evaluate the significance of the treatment effect to the population. In this article, we study point and interval estimates including confidence region of baseline risk and treatment effect based on logistic model, where baseline risk is the risk of outcome of the population under control treatment while treatment effect is measured by the risk difference between outcomes of the population under active versus control treatments. Using approximate normal distribution of the maximum‐likelihood (ML) estimate of the model parameters, we obtain an approximate joint distribution of the ML estimate of the baseline risk and the treatment effect. Using the approximate joint distribution, we obtain point estimate and confidence region of the baseline risk and the treatment effect as well as point estimate and confidence interval of the treatment effect when the ML estimate of the baseline risk falls into specified range. These interval estimates reflect nonnormality of the joint distribution of the ML estimate of the baseline risk and the treatment effect. The method can be easily implemented by using any software that generates normal distribution. The method can also be used to obtain point and interval estimates of baseline risk and any other measure of treatment effect such as risk ratio and the number needed to treat. The method can also be extended from logistic model to other models such as log‐linear model.     

Variation in monthly sizes of home-ranges of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus in western,eastern and southern Africa

Tracking studies are often used to inform conservation plans and actions. However, species have frequently only been tracked in one or a few localities, whereas space use can be remarkably flexible, especially in long-lived species with advanced learning abilities. We assessed variability in space use in the Critically Endangered Hooded Vulture Necrosyrtes monachus by pooling movement data from three populations across the species’ sub-Saharan range (in South Africa, Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, The Gambia and Mozambique). We estimated minimum convex polygons and kernel density estimators (KDEs) and compared monthly home-range sizes between breeding and non-breeding seasons, age-classes and subspecies, accounting for uneven sampling within groups. Mean (± sd) monthly home-range sizes (95% KDEs) for adult Hooded Vultures from southern (12 453 ± 21 188 km², n = 82) and eastern Africa (3735 ± 3652 km², n = 24) were 103 and 31 times larger than those of conspecifics from western Africa (121 ± 98 km², n = 48). This may relate partly to subspecific differences, and individuals with small home-ranges in western Africa and Ethiopia were trapped in urban environments. Regional variation in space use by Hooded Vultures may be linked to flexibility in feeding behaviour (degree of commensalism) which may arise in response to resource availability and persecution in different areas. Age-class also affected monthly home-range sizes, with immature birds generally having larger monthly home-range size estimates than adults. Our results highlight the flexibility of Hooded Vultures in terms of their home-range sizes and suggest that home-range sizes differ between populations and individuals, depending on the extent of human commensalism. Our results also reaffirm the importance of international co-operation in conservation efforts aimed at protecting this wide-ranging, non-migratory species.     

Estimation from quasi life tables

A large number of identical components are simultaneously setinto operation at each of a regular sequence of times and, onfailure, a component is instantaneously replaced. The functionalform of the distribution of the component lifelength is assumedto be known and it is desired to estimate the parameters ofthis distribution. However, no observations of the lifelengthsof individual components have been recorded: the only informationavailable is the numbers of components which fail between successivetime points. It is shown how this information, in conjunctionwith the theory of recurrent events, may be used to constructa nonparametric estimator of the discretised lifelength distribution.The latter is then used to estimate the unknown parameters.     

πPS Sampling Scheme Through Grouping

A πPS sampling scheme is developed by combining Stevens and Midzuno-Sen Sampling schemes. The restriction on original probabilities is less severe in the proposed scheme than that in Stevens and Midzuno-Sen schemes. The performance of the scheme is satisfactory.     

Estimation of size-specific dose estimates (SSDE) for paediatric and adults patients based on a single slice

Volume averaged CT dose index (CTDI_vol) is an important dose index utilized for CT dosimetry. Measurements of CTDI_vol are performed in reference cylindrical phantoms of specified diameters. A size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) has been recommended for assessment of doses delivered to individual patients. Evaluation of the SSDE requires the size of the scanned region of the patient to be estimated in terms of water-equivalent diameter (D_w) to allow calculation of a dose value appropriate for the patient. Estimation of D_w, however, may be challenging and time consuming as it requires assessment of D_w for each slice within the scanned region. A study has been carried out to investigate the suitability of using D_w,mid for a single slice at the middle of the scanned region to estimate a value of D_w,mean to apply to all slices. 351 phantoms (158 paediatric and 193 adult) developed from reconstructed CT images of patients were employed. Six scan regions were studied: chest, abdomen, pelvis, chest and abdomen, abdomen and pelvis, and the whole trunk. Results show that the use of D_w,mid can lead to over or underestimation of D_w,mean by up to 13% for paediatric and adult patients. SSDE values based on D_w,mid and D_w,mean were assessed for each phantom, and a linear regression analysis was performed. Use of the analysis could provide a simple and practical approach to assessing SSDE for a given scan based on D_w,mid with the root-mean-square errors estimated to be in the range of 1.2%–4.0% for paediatric and 1.2%–5.9% for adults.     

Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for estimating the distribution of selective effects among classes of mutations using DNA polymorphism data

Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches are presented for analyzing hierarchical statistical models of natural selection operating on DNA polymorphism within a panmictic population. For analyzing Bayesian models, we present Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling from the joint posterior distribution of parameters. For frequentist analysis, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is presented for finding the maximum likelihood estimate of the genome wide mean and variance in selection intensity among classes of mutations. The framework presented here provides an ideal setting for modeling mutations dispersed through the genome and, in particular, for the analysis of how natural selection operates on different classes of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).     

测量误差模型中变差系数的性质研究

本文对测量误差模型参数估计的变差系数的性质进行了初步研究.本文结果对参数估计分布性质,特别是分布的离散程度的研究有重要应用价值.     

生物群落的种-面积关系

种—面积关系主要探讨物种数量随面积扩大而变化的规律, 它联系不同尺度的生物多样性, 是生物多样性尺度转换的重要依据。利用种—面积关系可以估算群落或区域的物种数量、评价区域生物多样性的丧失。由于构建方式、尺度效应以及区域差异, 种—面积关系的具体形式及其普适性还存在争议。本文主要从构建、尺度效应、区域分异以及与种—多度分布的联系等方面综述种—面积关系的主要进展, 并探讨它在不同方面的适用性。最后给出了利用基于组合样方系列构建的种—面积关系来估算秦岭山地物种数的实例, 结果表明估算精度良好。     

F分布与物种总数的统计推断

通过两点分布和几何分布模型,给出了物种总数N的点估计,并讨论了它的性质．根据F分布和二项分布、几何分布的关系,本文得到了N的区间估计和检验统计量．     

How large is the world's largest fish? Measuring whale sharks Rhincodon typus with laser photogrammetry

Laser photogrammetry was found to be a promising new cost-effective technique for measuring free-swimming whale sharks Rhincodon typus. Photogrammetric measurements were more precise than visual size estimates by experienced researchers, with results from the two methods differing by 9· 8 ± 1· 1% (mean ±s.e.). A new metric of total length and the length between the fifth gill and first dorsal fin (r2 = 0· 93) is proposed to facilitate easy, accurate length measurements of whale sharks in the field.     

江苏省南通市农村生物质能资源潜力估算及地区分布

摸清农村生物质能资源潜力对南通市农村能源建设具有重大意义。以南通市为实证区域,利用草谷比、收集系数、折标系数、副产物系数并根据南通市可能源化利用的实际情况,从县域层面较为全面地估算了包括秸秆、农业加工副产品、人畜粪便等可能源化利用的生物质能资源总量。估算结果表明:(1)南通市每年提供的可能源化利用秸秆资源量约为105万t标煤,以稻秸、麦秸和油菜秸为主;农业加工副产品资源量约为20万t标煤,以稻壳、玉米芯、棉籽等为主;人禽粪便资源量为108万t标煤,以猪粪和禽粪为主,约占到资源总量的1/2。(2)南通市拥有较为丰富的生物质能资源,其中可能源化利用的生物质资源总量为年均233万t标煤,并且其资源总量呈增长趋势;预计在短期内其资源总量将增加到240万t标煤。(3)南通市生物质资源的地区分布极不均匀,从生物质能资源总量、单位国土面积生物质能资源量、人均生物质能资源量看,海安县、如东县和如皋市等经济比较薄弱的县市均具有明显优势,其中海安县在南通各县市中凭借其规模渐增的养殖业、种植业产生的生物质资源而遥遥领先;此外如东县的秸秆资源也具有重要地位。(4)南通市生物质资源的季节分布也不均匀,这种季节分布不均主要是由秸秆资源引起的,因为秸秆资源主要集中在秋季和春季,约占到60%—75%;而夏季和冬季则很少。这就给农村能源的持续开发利用带来一定难度。建议:需要针对各县市的生物质能开发利用的实际情况因地制宜合理开发生物质资源,科学布局避免恶性竞争,并及时做好秸秆资源的收集、转运与储存工作以避免资源的浪费和严重的环境污染,从而促进南通农村能源建设的健康发展。     

A comparison of methods used to count the elephant population of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa

Evaluation of alternative techniques used to estimate elephant population sizes is important in order to assess the accuracy of the results obtained, upon which management decisions may be based. Data from annual helicopter surveys carried out in the Addo Elephant National Park (1978–97) are compared with registration counts obtained from intensive ground surveys in which all elephants within the park are individually known. On average, total population size estimated in aerial surveys is 8.0% lower than registration counts (n₁₉₉₇ = 251), aerial calf (< 1 year) counts are 48.8% lower than registration counts, and aerial carcass counts are 50% below the total number of deaths documented in ground surveys. Registration counts provide more accurate demographic data than aerial surveys, the results of which are shown to vary widely and unpredictably, thus compromising their value. Where population estimates rely exclusively on aerial surveys, replicate counts are recommended in order to generate confidence intervals.     

海河流域生态需水核算

从生态系统角度分析了生态需水内涵和生态需水与生态用水概念的差别。探讨了海河流域自然陆地、河流、湿地、城市 4种生态系统类型生态需水核算方法 ,并对其生态需水量进行了核算。大气降水首先被天然植被利用后形成地表径流 ,才能被人类管理利用来满足经济水量和生态水量需求。从水资源管理来说 ,河流、湿地、城市等生态需水来源于径流性水资源可称为狭义生态需水 ,而包括利用降水性水资源的天然植被生态需水在内的全部生态系统生态需水可认为是广义的生态需水。狭义生态需水是水资源管理及生态需水研究和关注的重心。研究结果表明 :海河流域河流生态需水 31.6 4× 10 8m3,占多年平均天然径流量的 12 % ;湿地生态需水为 34.31× 10 8m3,占 13% ;城市生态需水量 10 .83× 10 8m3,占 4 .1% ,3项合计占径流总量的 2 9.1%。生态需水量是一个动态的值 ,随生态保护目标的提高和经济的发展核算结果必然发生变化 ,维护生态环境质量的状况不同 ,也存在最大、最小生态需水量的阈值问题 ,此类问题需今后进一步研究     

四膜虫：毒理学与生态毒理学研究中的优良模式生物

四膜虫 (Tetrahymena)是毒理学与生态毒理学研究的良好模式生物之一。本文回顾了近年来以四膜虫为实验生物开展的毒理学与生态毒理学研究进展 ,并针对目前产生严重环境压力的持久性有毒化学污染物 ,提出了以四膜虫为模式生物开展相应的生态毒理学研究的前景以及可行的方法。