Factors influencing the emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance arising from rollout of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)

Background

The potential for emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance from rollout of antiretroviral (ARV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important public health concern. We investigated determinants of HIV drug resistance prevalence after PrEP implementation through mathematical modeling.

Methodology

A model incorporating heterogeneity in age, gender, sexual activity, HIV infection status, stage of disease, PrEP coverage/discontinuation, and HIV drug susceptibility, was designed to simulate the impact of PrEP on HIV prevention and drug resistance in a sub-Saharan epidemic.

Principal Findings

Analyses suggest that the prevalence of HIV drug resistance is influenced most by the extent and duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals already infected with HIV. Other key factors affecting drug resistance prevalence include the persistence time of transmitted resistance and the duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals who become infected on PrEP. From uncertainty analysis, the median overall prevalence of drug resistance at 10 years was predicted to be 9.2% (interquartile range 6.9%–12.2%). An optimistic scenario of 75% PrEP efficacy, 60% coverage of the susceptible population, and 5% inadvertent PrEP use predicts a rise in HIV drug resistance prevalence to only 2.5% after 10 years. By contrast, in a pessimistic scenario of 25% PrEP efficacy, 15% population coverage, and 25% inadvertent PrEP use, resistance prevalence increased to over 40%.

Conclusions

Inadvertent PrEP use in previously-infected individuals is the major determinant of HIV drug resistance prevalence arising from PrEP. Both the rate and duration of inadvertent PrEP use are key factors. PrEP rollout programs should include routine monitoring of HIV infection status to limit the spread of drug resistance.     

Stochastic model of an influenza epidemic with drug resistance

A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is formulated for an influenza epidemic with drug resistance. This stochastic model is based on an influenza epidemic model, expressed in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), developed by Stilianakis, N.I., Perelson, A.S., Hayden, F.G., [1998. Emergence of drug resistance during an influenza epidemic: insights from a mathematical model. J. Inf. Dis. 177, 863-873]. Three different treatments-chemoprophylaxis, treatment after exposure but before symptoms, and treatment after symptoms appear, are considered. The basic reproduction number, R(0), is calculated for the deterministic-model under different treatment strategies. It is shown that chemoprophylaxis always reduces the basic reproduction number. In addition, numerical simulations illustrate that the basic reproduction number is generally reduced with realistic treatment rates. Comparisons are made among the different models and the different treatment strategies with respect to the number of infected individuals during an outbreak. The final size distribution is computed for the CTMC model and, in some cases, it is shown to have a bimodal distribution corresponding to two situations: when there is no outbreak and when an outbreak occurs. Given an outbreak occurs, the total number of cases for the CTMC model is in good agreement with the ODE model. The greatest number of drug resistant cases occurs if treatment is delayed or if only symptomatic individuals are treated.     

Operon dynamics with state dependent transcription and/or translation delays

This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a susceptible individual is proportional to the number of infected individuals in a disc around it. The main focus of the paper is a model where points are also subject to some random motion. Conservation equations for moment measures are leveraged to analyze the stationary regime of the point processes of infected and susceptible individuals. A heuristic factorization of the third moment measure is then proposed to obtain simple polynomial equations allowing one to derive closed form approximations for the fraction of infected individuals in the steady state. These polynomial equations also lead to a phase diagram which tentatively delineates the regions of the space of parameters (population density, infection radius, infection and recovery rate, and motion rate) where the epidemic survives and those where there is extinction. A key take-away from this phase diagram is that the extinction of the epidemic is not always aided by a decrease in the motion rate. These results are substantiated by simulations on large two dimensional tori. These simulations show that the polynomial equations accurately predict the fraction of infected individuals when the epidemic survives. The simulations also show that the proposed phase diagram accurately predicts the parameter regions where the mean survival time of the epidemic increases (resp. decreases) with motion rate.

     

南宁市HIV-1/AIDS人群治疗前pol区遗传特性及蛋白结构分析

为探讨南宁市某县艾滋病病毒1型(HIV-1)感染人群中治疗前pol区遗传特性及蛋白结构变化情况,本研究通过RT-PCR扩增pol区部分序列并进行测序,将序列同源比对构建系统进化树;分型确定毒株亚型和斯坦福大学HIV耐药性数据库比对,分析耐药相关位点;SWISS-MODEL蛋白质同源数据库进行建模分析氨基酸的突变对蛋白质结构和功能的影响。本研究在90份HIV-1标本中获得46个pol区有效序列,共发现4种亚型,其中CRF01_AE占76.08%(35/46)、CRF08_BC占15.22%(7/46)、CRF07_BC占(3/46)6.52%、CRF59_01B1占2.17%(1/46);46个序列中有4例(8.69%)出现耐药突变位点,没有针对核苷酸反转录酶抑制剂(NRTI)的耐药突变;针对蛋白酶类抑制剂(PIs)1例,PR蛋白酶的柔性部位I47V位点发生突变,β折叠结构的I84V位点发生突变,都是异亮氨酸突变为缬氨酸;针对非核苷酸反转录酶抑制剂(NNRTI)有3例,2例位于活性中心的Y181C位点由酪氨酸突变为半胱氨酸,1例位于转角处的E138G位点由谷氨酸突变为甘氨酸。研究表明,南宁市某县HIV-1病毒CRF01_AE重组亚型比例最大,未经抗病毒治疗HIV1感染者中已经出现pol区耐药突变株,突变位点主要位于活性中心及柔性部位,传播水平已经处于中等流行状态。深入分析蛋白质与抑制剂相互作用机制,有助于为艾滋病抗病毒及耐药性监测方案提供科学依据。     

Novel anti-malarial drug strategies to prevent artemisinin partner drug resistance: A model-based analysis

Emergence of resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs in the Greater Mekong Subregion has made elimination of malaria from this region a global priority; it also complicates its achievement. Novel drug strategies such as triple artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) and chemoprophylaxis have been proposed to help limit resistance and accelerate elimination. The objective of this study was to better understand the potential impacts of triple ACTs and chemoprophylaxis, using a mathematical model parameterized using data from Cambodia. We used a simple compartmental model to predict trends in malaria incidence and resistance in Cambodia from 2020–2025 assuming no changes in transmission since 2018. We assessed three scenarios: a status quo scenario with artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) as treatment; a triple ACT scenario with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) plus mefloquine (MQ) as treatment; and a chemoprophylaxis scenario with ASMQ as treatment plus DP as chemoprophylaxis. We predicted MQ resistance to increase under the status quo scenario. Triple ACT treatment reversed the spread of MQ resistance, but had no impact on overall malaria incidence. Joint MQ-PPQ resistance declined under the status quo scenario for the baseline parameter set and most sensitivity analyses. Compared to the status quo, triple ACT treatment limited spread of MQ resistance but also slowed declines in PPQ resistance in some sensitivity analyses. The chemoprophylaxis scenario decreased malaria incidence, but increased the spread of strains resistant to both MQ and PPQ; both effects began to reverse after the intervention was removed. We conclude that triple ACTs may limit spread of MQ resistance in the Cambodia, but would have limited impact on malaria incidence and might slow declines in PPQ resistance. Chemoprophylaxis could have greater impact on incidence but also carries higher risks of resistance. Aggressive strategies to limit transmission the GMS are needed to achieve elimination goals, but any intervention should be accompanied by monitoring for drug resistance.     

HIV behind Bars: Human Immunodeficiency Virus Cluster Analysis and Drug Resistance in a Reference Correctional Unit from Southern Brazil

People deprived of liberty in prisons are at higher risk of infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) due to their increased exposure through intravenous drug use, unprotected sexual activity, tattooing in prison and blood exposure in fights and rebellions. Yet, the contribution of intramural HIV transmission to the epidemic is scarcely known, especially in low- and middle-income settings. In this study, we surveyed 1,667 inmates incarcerated at Presídio Central de Porto Alegre, located in southern Brazil, for HIV infection and molecular characterization. The HIV seroprevalence was 6.6% (110/1,667). Further analyses were carried out on 40 HIV-seropositive inmates to assess HIV transmission clusters and drug resistance within the facility with the use of molecular and phylogenetic techniques. The molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 subtypes observed was similar to the one reported for the general population in southern Brazil, with the predominance of HIV-1 subtypes C, B, CRF31_BC and unique BC recombinants. In particular, the high rate (24%) of URF_BC found here may reflect multiple exposures of the population investigated to HIV infection. We failed to find HIV-infected inmates sharing transmission clusters with each other. Importantly, the analysis of HIV-1 pol genomic fragments evidenced high rates of HIV primary and secondary (acquired) drug resistance and an alarming proportion of virologic failure among patients under treatment, unveiling suboptimal access to antiretroviral therapy (ARV), low ARV adherence and dissemination of drug resistant HIV strains in primary infections. Our results call for immediate actions of public authority to implement preventive measures, serological screening and, for HIV-seropositive subjects, clinical and treatment follow-up in order to control HIV infection and limit the spread of drug resistance strains in Brazilian prisons.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Tenofovir Instead of Zidovudine for Use in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Settings without Virological Monitoring

Background

The most recent World Health Organization (WHO) antiretroviral treatment guidelines recommend the inclusion of zidovudine (ZDV) or tenofovir (TDF) in first-line therapy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with emphasis on emerging patterns of drug resistance upon treatment failure and their impact on second-line therapy.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation of a generalized HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa to compare two strategies for first-line combination antiretroviral treatment including lamivudine, nevirapine and either ZDV or TDF. Model input parameters were derived from literature and, for the simulation of resistance pathways, estimated from drug resistance data obtained after first-line treatment failure in settings without virological monitoring. Treatment failure and cost effectiveness were determined based on WHO definitions. Two scenarios with optimistic (no emergence; base) and pessimistic (extensive emergence) assumptions regarding occurrence of multidrug resistance patterns were tested.

Results

In the base scenario, cumulative proportions of treatment failure according to WHO criteria were higher among first-line ZDV users (median after six years 36% [95% simulation interval 32%; 39%]) compared with first-line TDF users (31% [29%; 33%]). Consequently, a higher proportion initiated second-line therapy (including lamivudine, boosted protease inhibitors and either ZDV or TDF) in the first-line ZDV user group 34% [31%; 37%] relative to first-line TDF users (30% [27%; 32%]). At the time of second-line initiation, a higher proportion (16%) of first-line ZDV users harboured TDF-resistant HIV compared with ZDV-resistant viruses among first-line TDF users (0% and 6% in base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). In the base scenario, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) was US$83 when TDF instead of ZDV was used in first-line therapy (pessimistic scenario: US$ 315), which was below the WHO threshold for high cost effectiveness (US$ 2154).

Conclusions

Using TDF instead of ZDV in first-line treatment in resource-limited settings is very cost-effective and likely to better preserve future treatment options in absence of virological monitoring.     

分枝杆菌枝菌酸合成及其调控

结核病是危害人类健康的重要传染病,每年200多万人死于结核病。耐(多)药菌株的出现、与HIV共感染以及人口老龄化等原因与全球结核病的卷土重来密切相关。枝菌酸是存在于结核分枝杆菌、其他分枝杆菌和许多放线菌的细胞壁中的关键组分,与结核分枝杆菌的致病、毒力和免疫逃避都有关系。枝菌酸在抗结核研究中有着极其重要的地位。结核分枝杆菌枝菌酸的生物合成途径一直是很重要的抗结核药物靶标,异烟肼、乙胺丁醇等抗结核药物都是以此为靶标。深入研究枝菌酸的合成、调控有助于发现更多的药物靶标,为开发结核病控制新措施提供基础。本文综述了结核分枝杆菌枝菌酸的结构与分类、生物合成途径及其调控、作为抗结核药物靶标的前景与应用,以期对枝菌酸有更深入的了解并为新型抗结核药物靶标的发现提供基础。     

Hidden Drug Resistant HIV to Emerge in the Era of Universal Treatment Access in Southeast Asia

Background

Universal access to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection is becoming more of a reality in most low and middle income countries in Asia. However, second-line therapies are relatively scarce.

Methods and Findings

We developed a mathematical model of an HIV epidemic in a Southeast Asian setting and used it to forecast the impact of treatment plans, without second-line options, on the potential degree of acquisition and transmission of drug resistant HIV strains. We show that after 10 years of universal treatment access, up to 20% of treatment-naïve individuals with HIV may have drug-resistant strains but it depends on the relative fitness of viral strains.

Conclusions

If viral load testing of people on ART is carried out on a yearly basis and virological failure leads to effective second-line therapy, then transmitted drug resistance could be reduced by 80%. Greater efforts are required for minimizing first-line failure, to detect virological failure earlier, and to procure access to second-line therapies.     

On an interacting particle system modeling an epidemic

We consider an interacting particle system onZ ^dto model an epidemic. Each site ofZ ^dcan be in either one of three states: empty, healthy or infected. Healthy and infected individuals give birth at different rates to healthy individuals on empty sites. Healthy individuals get infected by infected individuals. Infected and healthy individuals die at different rates. We prove that in dimension 1 and with nearest-neighbor interactions the epidemic may persist forever if and only if the rate at which infected individuals give birth to healthy individuals is high enough. This is in sharp contrast with models analysed by Andjel and Schinazi (1994) and Sato et al. (1994) where infected individuals do not give birth. We also show that some results in the latter reference can be obtained easily and rigorously using probabilistic coupling to the contact process.     

The spatial spread and final size of models for the deterministic host-vector epidemic

A disease is considered which is transferred between two populations, termed hosts and vectors. The disease is transmitted solely from infected vector to uninfected host and from infected host to uninfected vector. Two models are formulated in which infectious individuals are introduced at time t = 0 into the populations of susceptibles, thus triggering an epidemic through those populations. Conditions are established for a major epidemic to occur, and the final size of the epidemic is obtained for these models when no spatial aspect is considered. When a spatial aspect is included in the models, again the condition for a major epidemic is obtained. The pandemic theorem is proved rigorously, giving a lower bound for the proportion of each population, at each point, who eventually suffer the epidemic. The behavior a long way from the initial focus of infection is also rigorously obtained.     

Recent HIV-1 infection contributes to the viral diffusion over the French territory with a recent increasing frequency

Objective

To analyse the contribution of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection (PHI) to the French viral epidemic.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences included 987 PHI from the French ANRS PRIMO cohort between 1999 and 2010 and were analysed using a population-based phylogenetic approach. Clinical features, risk factors, sexual behaviour and drug resistance for clustered and nonclustered transmission events were ascertained.

Results

Viruses from 125 (12.7%) of PHI cosegregated into 56 transmission chains, with increasing frequency during the last years (10.2% before 2006 versus 15.2% of clusters in 2006–2010, p = 0.02). The mean number of patients per cluster was 2.44. Compared to unique PHI, clusters involved more often men, infected through homosexual intercourse, of young age, with a high number of casual sexual partnerships and frequent previous HIV serological tests. Resistant strains were found in 16.0% and 11.1% of clusters and unique PHI, respectively (p = 0.11). Overall, 34% (n = 19) clusters included patients followed in French regions far apart, involving 13 clusters with at least one Parisian patient.

Conclusions

PHIs are a significant source of onward transmission, especially in the MSM population. Recently infected people contribute to the spread of the viral epidemic throughout the French territory. Survey of transmitted drug resistance and behavioural characteristics of patients involved into clustered PHI may help to guide prevention and treatment interventions.