Seasonal Prevalence of Lyme Disease Spirochetes in a Heterothermic Mammal,the Edible Dormouse (Glis glis)

In Europe, dormice serve as competent reservoir hosts for particular genospecies of the tick-borne agent of Lyme disease (LD) and seem to support them more efficiently than do mice or voles. The longevity of edible dormice (Glis glis) and their attractiveness for ticks may result in a predominance of LD spirochetes in ticks questing in dormouse habitats. To investigate the role of edible dormice in the transmission cycle of LD spirochetes, we sampled skin tissue from the ear pinnae of dormice inhabiting five different study sites in south western Germany. Of 501 edible dormice, 12.6% harbored DNA of LD spirochetes. Edible dormice were infected most frequently with the pathogenic LD spirochete Borrelia afzelii. The DNA of B. garinii and B. bavariensis was detected in ca. 0.5% of the examined individuals. No spirochetal DNA was detectable in the skin of edible dormice until July, 6 weeks after they generally start to emerge from their obligate hibernation. Thereafter, the prevalence of spirochetal DNA in edible dormice increased during the remaining period of their 4 to 5 months of activity, reaching nearly 40% in September. Males were more than four times more likely to harbor LD spirochetes than females, and yearlings were almost twice more likely to be infected than adults. The seasonality of the prevalence of LD spirochetes in edible dormice was pronounced and may affect their role as a reservoir host in respect to other hosts.     

Morphological divergence in giant fossil dormice

Insular gigantism—evolutionary increases in body size from small-bodied mainland ancestors—is a conceptually significant, but poorly studied, evolutionary phenomenon. Gigantism is widespread on Mediterranean islands, particularly among fossil and extant dormice. These include an extant giant population of Eliomys quercinus on Formentera, the giant Balearic genus †Hypnomys and the exceptionally large †Leithia melitensis of Pleistocene Sicily. We quantified patterns of cranial and mandibular shape and their relationships to head size (allometry) among mainland and insular dormouse populations, asking to what extent the morphology of island giants is explained by allometry. We find that gigantism in dormice is not simply an extrapolation of the allometric trajectory of their mainland relatives. Instead, a large portion of their distinctive cranial and mandibular morphology resulted from the population- or species-specific evolutionary shape changes. Our findings suggest that body size increases in insular giant dormice were accompanied by the evolutionary divergence of feeding adaptations. This complements other evidence of ecological divergence in these taxa, which span predominantly faunivorous to herbivorous diets. Our findings suggest that insular gigantism involves context-dependent phenotypic modifications, underscoring the highly distinctive nature of island faunas.     

Current nest box designs may not be optimal for the larger forest dormice: Pre‐hibernation increase in body mass might lead to sampling bias in ecological data

1. Biologists commonly use nest boxes to study small arboreal mammals, including the forest dormouse (Dryomys nitedula). Hibernating dormouse species often experience pronounced seasonal variations in body mass, which might lead to sampling biases if it is not taken into account when designing nest boxes. In my study of the forest dormouse, I noticed that the entrance hole of nest boxes had been gnawed. I hypothesized that this behavior was exhibited by the individual dormice of higher body mass, who were unable to pass through the entrance holes.
2. To test my hypothesis, I categorized the individual dormice present inside nest boxes based on their body mass and then compared the seasonal body mass dynamics with the timing of the gnawing behavior. I also compared nest box occupancy by the forest dormouse before and after the gnawing behavior.
3. Interestingly, I found that the gnawing behavior was displayed exclusively when part of the dormouse population increased considerably in body mass, which supports my hypothesis. Additionally, nest box occupancy decreased significantly from 20% before to 4.6% after the gnawing behavior.
4. I suggest that researchers include nest boxes with entrance holes larger than 4 cm in future studies of the forest dormouse to prevent the possible exclusion of the conspecifics that have higher body mass before hibernation. This type of sampling bias might also concern studies of other species, such as the fat dormouse, that similarly show pronounced seasonal variations in body mass. I recommend that biologists consider the seasonal body mass dynamics of the target species when designing nest boxes to minimize bias in ecological data and improve management actions.

     

Climate change and size evolution in an island rodent species: new perspectives on the island rule

As stated by the island rule, small mammals evolve toward gigantism on islands. In addition they are known to evolve faster than their mainland counterparts. Body size in island mammals may also be influenced by geographical climatic gradients or climatic change through time. We tested the relative effects of climate change and isolation on the size of the Japanese rodent Apodemus speciosus and calculated evolutionary rates of body size change since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Currently A. speciosus populations conform both to Bergmann's rule, with an increase in body size with latitude, and to the island rule, with larger body sizes on small islands. We also found that fossil representatives of A. speciosus are larger than their extant relatives. Our estimated evolutionary rates since the LGM show that body size evolution on the smaller islands has been less than half as rapid as on Honshu, the mainland-type large island of Japan. We conclude that island populations exhibit larger body sizes today not because they have evolved toward gigantism, but because their evolution toward a smaller size, due to climate warming since the LGM, has been decelerated by the island effect. These combined results suggest that evolution in Quaternary island small mammals may not have been as fast as expected by the island effect because of the counteracting effect of climate change during this period.     

Survival rates in a small hibernator,the edible dormouse: a comparison across Europe

Understanding how local environmental factors lead to temporal variability of vital rates and to plasticity of life history tactics is one of the central questions in population ecology. We used long‐term capture‐recapture data from five populations of a small hibernating rodent, the edible dormouse Glis glis, collected over a large geographical range across Europe, to determine and analyze both seasonal patterns of local survival and their relation to reproductive activity. In all populations studied, survival was lowest in early summer, higher in late summer and highest during hibernation in winter. In reproductive years survival was always lower than in non‐reproductive years, and females had higher survival rates than males. Very high survival rates during winter indicate that edible dormice rarely die from starvation due to insufficient energy reserves during the hibernation period. Increased mortality in early summer was most likely caused by high predation risk and unmet energy demands. Those effects have probably an even stronger impact in reproductive years, in which dormice were more active. Although these patterns could be found in all areas, there were also considerable differences in average survival rates, with resulting differences in mean lifetime reproductive success between populations. Our results suggest that edible dormice have adapted their life history strategies to maximize lifetime reproductive success depending on the area specific frequency of seeding events of trees producing energy‐rich seeds.     

Seasonal changes in liver size in edible dormice (Glis glis): non-invasive measurements using ultrasonography

We used non-invasive ultrasonography to investigate seasonal changes in liver size of an obligate hibernator; the edible dormouse (Glis glis). We repeatedly measured liver size in dormice at two study sites, (1) an enclosure-housed colony and (2) a free-ranging population. We observed a significant increase in transverse liver size throughout the active season; however, this effect was most pronounced in animals with low body mass early in the active season. Ultrasonography imaging revealed that the content of fat in the liver (distributed in an unexpected pattern of discrete focal areas) visibly increased at the end of the active season both in the field and enclosure. Thus, the observed increase in liver size of dormice seems mainly related to fat accumulation. We found no principal differences in the time courses of transversal liver size between the two study sites. Our results support the view that non-invasive ultrasonography is an accurate method to study internal organ sizes, such as liver, in the laboratory and in the field.     

Influences of the feeding ecology on body mass and possible implications for reproduction in the edible dormouse (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glis glis</Emphasis>)

The edible dormouse (Glis glis) is a small rodent and an obligate hibernator. Dormice undergo strong fluctuations of reproductive output during years that seem to be timed to coincide with future food supply. This behaviour enables them to avoid producing young that will starve with a high probability due to food shortage, and to increase their lifetime reproductive success. Aims of this study were to elucidate the extent to which feeding ecology in the edible dormouse has an impact on body mass and the fatty acid (FA) pattern of the white adipose tissue (WAT) before and after hibernation, which in turn might influence reproductive status in spring. Dormice show strong seasonal fluctuations of the body mass, which is reduced by one third during hibernation. Body mass and its changes depend on autumnal food availability as well as on the dietary FA pattern. During the pre-hibernation fattening period, dormice eat lipid rich food with a high content of linoleic acid. During hibernation, linoleic acid content is slightly but significantly reduced and body mass loss during winter is negatively correlated with the pre-hibernation linoleic acid content in the WAT. No relation between reproductive status and body mass, body condition or the FAs pattern of the WAT could be detected. However, in a year of high reproduction, dormice commence the shift to seed eating earlier than in a year of low reproduction. These seeds could be either a predictor for future food supply in autumn, or represent a high-energy food compensating high energetic costs of sexual activity in male edible dormice.     

The influence of high nestbox density on the common dormouseMuscardinus avellanarius population

The response of common dormouseMuscardinus avellanarius Linnaeus, 1758 population to availability of nest sites was studied by manipulating the nestbox grid and ring-marking dormice. Abundance of adult dormice more than doubled in the 25 × 25 m nestbox grid in comparison to the 50 × 50 m grid, as a result of increased nestbox density from four to 16 boxes/ha. This effect already became apparent in the first year after additional nestboxes were made available and resulted from dormouse immigration, mostly from adjacent areas without nestboxes. In the second and third years, the number of two-year-old and older resident dormice, which had their home ranges in this plot, increased considerably. The average size of dormouse home range decreased by approximately half both in males and females in the 25 × 25 m grid compared to the 50 × 50 m grid. The proportion of breeding adult females did not differ between the two grids in spite of different adult dormouse density. Shortage of secure nest sites was a limiting factor for the common dormouse population abundance in the forest where natural tree hollows were absent, and high nestbox density increased environmental carrying capacity.     

Body size evolution in insular vertebrates: generality of the island rule

Aim My goals here are to (1) assess the generality of the island rule – the graded trend from gigantism in small species to dwarfism in larger species – for mammals and other terrestrial vertebrates on islands and island‐like ecosystems; (2) explore some related patterns of body size variation in insular vertebrates, in particular variation in body size as a function of island area and isolation; (3) offer causal explanations for these patterns; and (4) identify promising areas for future studies on body size evolution in insular vertebrates. Location Oceanic and near‐shore archipelagos, and island‐like ecosystems world‐wide. Methods Body size measurements of insular vertebrates (non‐volant mammals, bats, birds, snakes and turtles) were obtained from the literature, and then regression analyses were conducted to test whether body size of insular populations varies as a function of body size of the species on the mainland (the island rule) and with characteristics of the islands (i.e. island isolation and area). Results The island rule appears to be a general phenomenon both with mammalian orders (and to some degree within families and particular subfamilies) as well as across the species groups studied, including non‐volant mammals, bats, passerine birds, snakes and turtles. In addition, body size of numerous species in these classes of vertebrates varies significantly with island isolation and island area. Main conclusions The patterns observed here – the island rule and the tendency for body size among populations of particular species to vary with characteristics of the islands – are actually distinct and scale‐dependent phenomena. Patterns within archipelagos reflect the influence of island isolation and area on selective pressures (immigration filters, resource limitation, and intra‐ and interspecific interactions) within particular species. These patterns contribute to variation about the general trend referred to as the island rule, not the signal for that more general, large‐scale pattern. The island rule itself is an emergent pattern resulting from a combination of selective forces whose importance and influence on insular populations vary in a predictable manner along a gradient from relatively small to large species. As a result, body size of insular species tends to converge on a size that is optimal, or fundamental, for a particular bau plan and ecological strategy.     

Energy or information? The role of seed availability for reproductive decisions in edible dormice

The edible dormouse is a specialized seed predator which is highly adapted to the fluctuations of food availability caused by mast seeding of beech and oak trees. Dormice produce young just in time with maximum food availability, and can completely skip reproduction in years with a lack of seeding. Because their decision to reproduce or not in any particular year is made long before the ripe seeds are available, it seems that dormice can anticipate the upcoming mast situation. We tested the hypothesis that the presence of high caloric food in spring affects their reproductive decision. Therefore, we supplementary fed dormice in a field experiment from spring to early summer with sunflower seeds, which also contain a high amount of energy. Supplemental feeding caused significant increases in the proportion of reproducing females and reproductively active males. These results suggest that edible dormice may use the occurrence of an energy rich food resource to predict the autumnal mast situation. Further, our data indicate that the decision to reproduce was not the result of an increased body mass due to the consumption of surplus food, but that sufficient seed abundance acts as an environmental signal to which dormice adjust their reproduction.     

The 'island rule' in birds: medium body size and its ecological explanation

Do birds show a different pattern of insular evolution from mammals? Mammals follow the ''island rule'', with large-bodied species getting smaller on islands and small-bodied species getting bigger. By contrast, the traditional view on birds is that they follow no general island rule for body size, but that there is an insular trend for large bills. Insular shifts in feeding ecology are, therefore, widely assumed to be the primary cause of divergence in island birds. We use a comparative approach to test these ideas. Contrary to the traditional view, we find no evidence for increased bill size in insular populations. Instead, changes in both bill size and body size obey the ''island rule''. The differences between our results and the traditional view arise because previous analyses were based largely on passerines. We also investigate some ecological factors that are thought to influence island evolution. As predicted by the traditional view, shifts in bill size are associated with feeding ecology. By contrast, shifts in body size are associated with the potential for intraspecific competition and thermal ecology. All these results remain qualitatively unchanged when we use different methods to score the ecological factors and restrict our analyses to taxa showing pronounced morphological divergence. Because of strong covariation between ecological factors, however, we cannot estimate the relative importance of each ecological factor. Overall, our results show that the island rule is valid for both body size and bill length in birds and that, in addition to feeding ecology, insular shifts in the level of intraspecific competition and the abiotic environment also have a role.     

Morphometric and genetic structure of the edible dormouse (Glis glis): a consequence of forest fragmentation in Turkey

Past climatic fluctuations influenced forest habitats and impacted heavily the distribution of forest species, such as the edible dormouse, by changing the distribution and composition of forests themselves. Such effects may be valid for ongoing climate change as well. To improve our understanding of the edible dormouse's history and how it responded to changes in its environment, we investigated its variation across the understudied zone of Northern Turkey using two complementary markers of differentiation: the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene for genetics, and size and shape of the first upper molar for phenotypic differences. Genetic and morphometric results were strongly discrepant. Genetic analyses evidenced an amazing homogeneity throughout the Eurasian range of the edible dormouse, whereas morphometrics pointed to a complex, step‐wise differentiation along the Black Sea coast, the main signal being an opposition between Easternmost and Westernmost Turkish dormice. The genetic homogeneity suggests that this phenotypic differentiation is not the inheritance of glacial refuges, but the consequence of a more recent post‐glacial isolation. The transition between the European and Asian groups is located eastwards from the Marmara straits, undermining its claimed role as an efficient barrier but stressing the importance of climatic and vegetational factors. A secondary differentiation between populations from the Central Black Sea coast and Easternmost regions was evidenced, attributed to a complex interplay of climatic, topographic, anthropogenic, and ecological factors. Turkey, at the crossroad of European and Asian species, heavily impacted by the current global change including climatic and anthropogenic factors, appears of importance for understanding the historical dynamics of differentiation and exchanges between populations that shaped the current distribution of Eurasian species and their future survival. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 107 , 611–623.     

Of mice and mammoths: generality and antiquity of the island rule

Aim

We assessed the generality of the island rule in a database comprising 1593 populations of insular mammals (439 species, including 63 species of fossil mammals), and tested whether observed patterns differed among taxonomic and functional groups.

Location

Islands world‐wide.

Methods

We measured museum specimens (fossil mammals) and reviewed the literature to compile a database of insular animal body size (S_i = mean mass of individuals from an insular population divided by that of individuals from an ancestral or mainland population, M). We used linear regressions to investigate the relationship between S_i and M, and ANCOVA to compare trends among taxonomic and functional groups.

Results

S_i was significantly and negatively related to the mass of the ancestral or mainland population across all mammals and within all orders of extant mammals analysed, and across palaeo‐insular (considered separately) mammals as well. Insular body size was significantly smaller for bats and insectivores than for the other orders studied here, but significantly larger for mammals that utilized aquatic prey than for those restricted to terrestrial prey.

Main conclusions

The island rule appears to be a pervasive pattern, exhibited by mammals from a broad range of orders, functional groups and time periods. There remains, however, much scatter about the general trend; this residual variation may be highly informative as it appears consistent with differences among species, islands and environmental characteristics hypothesized to influence body size evolution in general. The more pronounced gigantism and dwarfism of palaeo‐insular mammals, in particular, is consistent with a hypothesis that emphasizes the importance of ecological interactions (time in isolation from mammalian predators and competitors was 0.1 to > 1.0 Myr for palaeo‐insular mammals, but < 0.01 Myr for extant populations of insular mammals). While ecological displacement may be a major force driving diversification in body size in high‐diversity biotas, ecological release in species‐poor biotas often results in the convergence of insular mammals on the size of intermediate but absent species.     

Insulin secretion in the hibernating edible dormouse (Glis glis): in vivo and in vitro studies

Plasma glucose and insulin have been studied during lethargy and spontaneous arousal of hibernating edible dormouse. During lethargy blood glucose was low while plasma insulin remained at the same level as in other seasons. Plasma glucose and insulin did not fluctuate along the phase of lethargy. During spontaneous arousal plasma insulin rose strongly from the 17 degrees C stage, reaching the higher values at 26 degrees C while blood glucose was only 85 mg/100 ml, then decreased at 37 degrees C. The effect of glucose and temperature on insulin secretion was studied using perfused pancreas preparation from hibernating edible dormice. During the rewarming of the edible dormouse pancreas the insulin release did not occur in response to the absolute extracellular glucose level but occurred in response to a B cell membrane phenomenon which was dependent on the changing rate of glucose level. The effect of glucose and temperature on insulin secretion from perfused pancreas was compared between edible dormouse and homeotherm permanent, the rat. The B cell response to glucose of the dormouse pancreas increased up to 15 degrees C whereas that of the rat only from 25 degrees C. The dormouse insulin secretion reached a peak value at the 30 degrees C of temperature, whereas that of the rat progressively increased until 37 degrees C. These results showed that some biochemical adjustment or process of acclimatization took place in the B cells of the hibernators.     

The island rule in large mammals: paleontology meets ecology

The island rule is the phenomenon of the miniaturization of large animals and the gigantism of small animals on islands, with mammals providing the classic case studies. Several explanations for this pattern have been suggested, and departures from the predictions of this rule are common among mammals of differing body size, trophic habits, and phylogenetic affinities. Here we offer a new explanation for the evolution of body size of large insular mammals, using evidence from both living and fossil island faunal assemblages. We demonstrate that the extent of dwarfism in ungulates depends on the existence of competitors and, to a lesser extent, on the presence of predators. In contrast, competition and predation have little or no effect on insular carnivore body size, which is influenced by the nature of the resource base. We suggest dwarfism in large herbivores is an outcome of the fitness increase resulting from the acceleration of reproduction in low-mortality environments. Carnivore size is dependent on the abundance and size of their prey. Size evolution of large mammals in different trophic levels has different underlying mechanisms, resulting in different patterns. Absolute body size may be only an indirect predictor of size evolution, with ecological interactions playing a major role.     

The effects of restoring a conifer Plantation on an Ancient Woodland Site (PAWS) in the UK on the habitat and local population of the Hazel Dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius)

The common dormouse is a European protected species that is considered at risk during forest management operations in the UK. Historically, they were believed to exist principally in scrub and broadleaved woodlands, especially hazel coppice, but recent evidence has shown that they are present in some conifer sites at low density. Operations to restore conifer plantations on ancient woodland sites (PAWS) with native broadleaves may be especially hazardous to dormice populations, since dormouse densities are generally lower here so sudden perturbations may cause local extinction. Recent policy for restoring PAWS to broadleaved and the need to comply with European legislation has emphasised the need to devise appropriate but pragmatic forest management protocols involving the phased removal of conifers over time. Dormice were handled and individually marked on a single 12?ha conifer PAWS site from 2000 and a density index calculated from 2002 to 2007. In four adjacent study areas, a different form of PAWS restoration was carried out in 2003 to remove c. 33% of conifers. The effects on dormouse numbers, damage to artificial hibernation nests, and regeneration of suitable habitat were recorded. Monitoring indicated that dormouse populations were sustained in each study area after management, suggesting that at this site, conifer removal operations did not have a significant detrimental effect on the dormouse population. Damage to artificial hibernation nests was significantly different between the four study areas. The least damage occurred in the study area containing large group fells due to potential refuge areas, and worst in the traditional standard overall thinning. Measured differences in shrub vegetation throughout each study area showed that numerous small group fells or a few larger group fells subsequently regenerated to form a better vegetation structure for dormice than the traditional standard overall thinning. The implications for forest managers of the results from this single site are discussed.     

Is energy supply the trigger for reproductive activity in male edible dormice (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glis glis</Emphasis>)?

In edible dormice (Glis glis) reproduction is synchronised with the intermittent masting of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica). In years of mast failure dormouse males seem to anticipate future low food availability and fail to develop functional testes. We hypothesised that the availability of high-quality food is linked to male reproductive capacity, because of high male energetic demands during gonad maturation. We therefore evaluated the relationship between beech seed production and male reproductivity in the field between 1993 and 2005. In order to know whether the energy content of the food as such triggers sexual capacity, we supplemented high-quality food in the field for 3 years and investigated reproductive output, reproductive capacity, and body mass changes. Results revealed that male reproductive capacity was positively linked with beech seed production. Body mass changes of reference males during the high reproductive year further revealed high energetic demands of male reproduction, which were counter balanced in food-supplemented males. However, in contrast to our assumptions, artificial food supply during a year of mast failure failed to evoke high reproductivity in edible dormice. The availability of high-quality food can therefore be ruled out from being the primary trigger for sexual activity in male edible dormice.     

Mammals evolve faster on smaller islands

Island mammals often display remarkable evolutionary changes in size and morphology. Both theory and empirical data support the hypothesis that island mammals evolve at faster rates than their mainland congeners. It is also often assumed that the island effect is stronger and that evolution is faster on the smallest islands. I used a dataset assembled from the literature to test these assumptions for the first time. I show that mammals on smaller islands do indeed evolve more rapidly than mammals on larger islands, and also evolve by a greater amount. These results fit well the theory of an evolutionary burst due to the opening of new ecological opportunities on islands. This evolutionary burst is expected to be the strongest on the smallest islands where the contrast between the island and the mainland environments is the most dramatic.     

Effects of forest fragmentation on the winter body condition and population parameters of an habitat generalist,the wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus: a test of hypotheses

Three main causal hypotheses have been proposed to explain the inverse relationships between habitat patch size and density of generalist mouse species in fragmented habitats: 1) enhanced habitat conditions as habitat patch size decreases; 2) inhibited emigration of excess individuals in small and isolated habitat patches; and 3) reduced territoriality in small patches because they are occupied temporarily by nonreproductive individuals. From the mechanism underlying each hypothesis, we derived predictions on the effects of fragment size on the body condition of individuals (measured both as absolute body size and as body mass relative to body size) and some demographic parameters of mouse populations related to reproductive output (sex-ratio and proportions of sexually active and recently-born individuals), and we tested such predictions with data from wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus wintering in three Spanish forest archipelagos in which the inverse relationship between forest patch size and mouse abundance had been previously proven. No differences in average body size or in average body mass relative to body size were detected among fragments. Mouse populations wintering in small fragments showed more male-biased sex-ratios, a larger proportion of sexually active adults and fewer juveniles as compared to mouse populations wintering in large fragments nearby. Results clearly rejected the third hypothesis and did not support the second one. It thus seemed that habitat conditions for mice improved as forest fragment size decreased, although the expected positive effects on individuals could have been prevented by relaxed territoriality and increased food resource depletion by denser mouse populations. Bearing in mind the negative effects of dense wood mice populations on the distribution, abundance and population dynamics of forest species, this apparent enhancement of habitat conditions for mice in small forest fragments could have far-reaching consequences for the long-term persistence of such fragments.     

Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds

Global climate change has been shown to cause variable shifts in phenology in a variety of animals and unexpected outcomes across food chains are to be found. Here we examined how rising annual spring temperatures affected the interactions between seed masting, cavity nesting birds and dormice using long-term data from Eastern Czech Republic. We have shown that climate change was associated with unequal shifts in the phenology of two cavity-breeding groups: dormice and birds. Rising spring temperatures have progressively advanced the termination of hibernation for the edible dormouse Glis glis , a common bird predator, leading to an increasing overlap in the use of nesting boxes between dormice and birds. In contrast, only the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis , of the four cavity-nesting bird species, advanced its breeding dates in response to rising temperatures. At the same time, favourable weather conditions, coupled with good seed masting years, have been associated with a substantial rise in dormice numbers. Concurrent with the increasing dormice abundance, the number of bird nests destroyed significantly increased in three out of four bird species. We showed that while there was a significant change in the date that the dormice emerged from hibernation during the course of the study, it did not significantly contribute to predation levels when controlling for their abundance and timing of breeding in birds. We found that the increasing dormice abundance was the main factor causing high brood losses in birds, while the timing of breeding in birds had a variable effect between bird species. This study illustrates how changes in climate might affect organisms at various trophic levels with often unexpected outcomes. Limited evidence from other study organisms suggests that species most at risk are those at different trophic levels that do not shift at the same rate or in the same direction as their food resources, predators or competitors.