Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.     

Detection and Molecular Characterization of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Yellow Fever Virus</Emphasis>, 2017, Brazil

At the end of 2016, Brazil experienced an unprecedented yellow fever (YF) outbreak. Clinical, molecular and ecological aspects of human and non-human primate (NHP) samples collected at the beginning of the outbreak are described in this study. Spatial distribution analyses demonstrated a strong overlap between human and NHP cases. Through molecular analyses, we showed that the outbreak had a sylvatic origin, caused by the South American genotype 1 YFV, which has already been shown to circulate in Brazil. As expected, the clusters of cases were identified in regions with a low vaccination coverage. Our findings highlight the importance of the synchronization of animal surveillance and health services to identify emerging YF cases, thereby promoting a better response to the vulnerable population.     

Complete genome sequence of a sucrose-nonfermenting epidemic strain of Vibrio cholerae O1 from Brazil

We report the genome sequence of Vibrio cholerae strain IEC224, which fails to ferment sucrose. It was isolated from a cholera outbreak in the Amazon. The defective sucrose phenotype was determined to be due to a frameshift mutation, and a molecular marker of the Latin American main epidemic lineage was identified.     

Bacteriologic and serologic studies of an outbreak of plague in the State of Paraíba, Brazil

During a plaque outbreak in the Borborema Plateau focus (Paraiba), bacteriological and serological studies were carried out in material from 452 patients (48 positives), 1,938 rodents and other small mammals (75 positives), 4,756 dogs (141 positives) and 2,047 cats (57 positives) obtained from 41 counties (out of which, 21 produced positive samples). Twenty Yersinia pestis strains isolated from material from 3 patients and 17 rodents, displayed biochemical reactions, virulence factors, antibiotic susceptibility and animal experimental pathogenicity similar to those observed in strains previously isolated. According to our findings this recent plague outbreak did not exhibit different factors from those observed during prior outbreaks in other plague foci in the northeast of Brazil.     

The impact of climate suitability,urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.     

Neutralising antibodies for Mayaro virus in Pantanal, Brazil

The Pantanal hosts diverse wildlife species and therefore is a hotspot for arbovirus studies in South America. A serosurvey for Mayaro virus (MAYV), eastern (EEEV), western (WEEV) and Venezuelan (VEEV) equine encephalitis viruses was conducted with 237 sheep, 87 free-ranging caimans and 748 equids, including 37 collected from a ranch where a neurologic disorder outbreak had been recently reported. Sera were tested for specific viral antibodies using plaque-reduction neutralisation test. From a total of 748 equids, of which 264 were immunised with vaccine composed of EEEV and WEEV and 484 had no history of immunisation, 10 (1.3%) were seropositive for MAYV and two (0.3%) for VEEV using criteria of a ≥ 4-fold antibody titre difference. Among the 484 equids without history of immunisation, 48 (9.9%) were seropositive for EEEV and four (0.8%) for WEEV using the same criteria. Among the sheep, five were sero- positive for equine encephalitis alphaviruses, with one (0.4%) for EEEV, one (0.4%) for WEEV and three (1.3%) for VEEV. Regarding free-ranging caimans, one (1.1%) and three (3.4%), respectively, had low titres for neutralising antibodies to VEEV and undetermined alphaviruses. The neurological disorder outbreak could not be linked to the alphaviruses tested. Our findings represent strong evidence that MAYV and all equine encephalitis alphaviruses circulated in the Pantanal.     

Pulmonary aspergillosis outbreak in Rhea americana in Southern Brazil

Commercial raising of rheas is currently in expansion in the south of Brazil, and many diseases previously restricted to other avian species are currently emerging on rhea farms, especially as a result of careless management of these animals. The objective of the present article is to report a pulmonary aspergillosis outbreak that occurred in great rhea (Rhea americana) in the south of Brazil. About 50 birds aged 30 to 60 days died suddenly and one of them was submitted to autopsy which revealed the presence of white caseous nodules 0.5 mm in diameter occupying 95% of the lung area. One lung was sent to the Federal University of Santa Maria for histopathological and mycological analyses. Histopathological analysis revealed multifocal areas with necrosis and inflammatory infiltrates and the presence of fungal hyphae, giant cells and fibrous tissue proliferation at the periphery. Aspergillus fumigatus was recovered as pure culture from all culture media. This appears to be the first report of aspergillosis among great rhea in Brazil and the second in the world.     

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of S?o Paulo,Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.     

Hepatitis a outbreak in a public school in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

From June 1 to July 1 1999, an outbreak involving 25 cases of hepatitis A occurred in a public school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since these cases were notified to the State Health Department, the National Reference Center for Hepatitis Viruses (CNRHV) was required to investigate the extent of hepatitis A virus (HAV) dissemination. Blood samples from all students were tested for IgM and total anti-HAV antibodies using a commercial enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA). At the same time, a questionnaire was completed in order to identify possible risk factors for HAV infection. The environmental investigation showed that there was no fecal contamination of the water supply. The epidemiological investigation demonstrated that almost 50% of this population was susceptible to HAV infection and probably person-to-person transmission was the principal mode of virus dissemination. In this situation, a massive vaccination campaign could control the HAV infection.     

Molecular typing of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from public hospitals in Recife, Brazil

Thirty nosocomial isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae, collected from three public hospitals in Recife, Brazil, between 1999 and 2000, were analysed in order to determine their epidemiological relatedness and genetic characteristics. The isolates were characterised by biotyping, antibiotyping, protein analysis, plasmid profile and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). The majority of the clinical isolates were resistant to multiple antibiotics, in particular to beta-lactams, and 30% were found to be ESBLs producers. RAPD proved to be the most effective technique in discriminating unrelated K. pneumoniae isolates. It was confirmed by the highly genetic similarity found among related isolates from an hospital outbreak. We conclude that K. pneumoniae infections in Recife has been caused by a variety of bacterial genotypes. This is the first report that revealed the subtypes of K. pneumoniae in Brazil by plasmid analysis and RAPD.     

Yellow Fever Outbreaks in Unvaccinated Populations,Brazil, 2008–2009

Due to the risk of severe vaccine-associated adverse events, yellow fever vaccination in Brazil is only recommended in areas considered at risk for disease. From September 2008 through June 2009, two outbreaks of yellow fever in previously unvaccinated populations resulted in 21 confirmed cases with 9 deaths (case-fatality, 43%) in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and 28 cases with 11 deaths (39%) in Sao Paulo state. Epizootic deaths of non-human primates were reported before and during the outbreak. Over 5.5 million doses of yellow fever vaccine were administered in the two most affected states. Vaccine-associated adverse events were associated with six deaths due to acute viscerotropic disease (0.8 deaths per million doses administered) and 45 cases of acute neurotropic disease (5.6 per million doses administered). Yellow fever vaccine recommendations were revised to include areas in Brazil previously not considered at risk for yellow fever.     

Species richness and abundance of defoliating Lepidoptera associated with Eucalyptus grandis in Brazil and their response to plant age

The present paper documents patterns of species richness and abundance in Lepidoptera associated with a Eucalyptus grandis plantation, and how these patterns relate to plant age. The large number of species collected (1385), the lack of dominant species and the absence of pest outbreaks during the survey may be related to the high level of plant diversity of the native forest reserves in the area. There was no clear pattern of seasonal variation in species richness, but there were seasonal fluctuations in abundance, with minor defoliator species prevailing in October at the start of the rainy season. Species richness and abundance of Lepidoptera were positively correlated, with both variables decreasing in older plantations. However, the greatest numbers of major outbreak species and minor eucalypt defoliators were observed in plants after the mid‐point (6 years old) of their cutting cycle (7–10 years). This may be because of a larger amount of better‐quality plant leaves after this mid‐point or the reduction in silvicultural management interventions at this period of the Eucalyptus cutting cycle. The abundance of the main outbreak species observed in the survey, Stenalcidia grosica Schaus (Geometridae), was negatively correlated with plant age. Nonetheless, the effect was weak (r = – 0.21, P = 0.03) and we were not able to find further significant correlations between plant age and abundance of the other most frequent and constant species that were collected.     

Epidemiological Profile of Cryptococcal Meningitis Patients in Rio Grande do Sul,Brazil

Cryptococcosis is a major opportunistic mycosis which has meningitis as its most frequent clinical presentation and can be fatal in the absence of antifungal therapy. The aetiological agents are Cryptococcus neoformans, which affects mainly immunocompromised subjects, and C. gattii, the aetiologic agent for cryptococcosis in healthy individuals. A recent outbreak of cryptococcosis on Vancouver Island, Canada, raised the level of concern about the epidemiology of this disease. In Brazil, between 1980 and 2002, six per cent of AIDS patients had cryptococcosis in course at the time of diagnosis. To identify the profile of cryptococcal meningitis patients in Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, a retroactive study was realized using data from patients registered at Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública IPB-LACEN/RS from 2000 to 2005. Most of the patients were men (77.12%), Caucasian (83.5%), median age between thirty and thirty-nine years old (46.24%) and HIV positive (95%).     

Clonal multidrug-resistant Corynebacterium striatum within a nosocomial environment,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Corynebacterium striatum is a potentially pathogenic microorganism with the ability to produce outbreaks of nosocomial infections. Here, we document a nosocomial outbreak caused by multidrug-resistant (MDR) C. striatum in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. C. striatum identification was confirmed by 16S rRNA and rpoB gene sequencing. Fifteen C. striatum strains were isolated from adults (half of whom were 50 years of age and older). C. striatum was mostly isolated in pure culture from tracheal aspirates of patients undergoing endotracheal intubation procedures. The analysis by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) indicated the presence of four PFGE profiles, including two related clones of MDR strains (PFGE I and II). The data demonstrated the predominance of PFGE type I, comprising 11 MDR isolates that were mostly isolated from intensive care units and surgical wards. A potential causal link between death and MDR C. striatum (PFGE types I and II) infection was observed in five cases.     

Recognition of the epidemiological significance of Neisseria meningitidis capsular serogroup W135 in the Rio de Janeiro region, Brazil

Neisseria meningitidis retains its ability to cause endemic and hiperendemic disease in human population living in any environment, as well as localized outbreaks and massive epidemics in civilians and military personnel. In Rio de Janeiro it has been reported in the 1990s as prolonged outbreak of serogroup B and at least one epidemic of serogroup C was well defined, both demanding quick action by the Public Health authorities. We report here the emergence of serogroup W135 meningococcal disease causing endemic and case cluster in Rio de Janeiro during the first years of this new century.     

First Evaluation of an Outbreak of Bovine Babesiosis and Anaplasmosis in Southern Brazil Using Multiplex PCR

Outbreaks of tick-borne disease cases in Santa Catarina, Brazil are known, but the presence of the pathogen DNA has never been determined. In this study, the first survey of Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina, and Babesia bovis DNA on blood samples of 33 cattle from an outbreak in Ponte Alta Municipality, Santa Catarina, Brazil, has been carried out. A multiplex PCR detected 54.5% of animals were co-infected with 2 or 3 parasites, while 24.2% were infected with only 1 species. The most prevalent agent was B. bigemina (63.6%) followed by A. marginale (60.6%). This is the first report of tick-borne disease pathogens obtained by DNA analysis in Southern Brazil.     

Evaluation of a RAPD-based typing scheme in a molecular epidemiology study of Vibrio cholerae O1, Brazil

AIMS: To evaluate the utility of random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique for routine practice in public health laboratories for epidemiological studies of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates. MATERIALS AND RESULTS: Seventy-nine strains were examined by PCR for the toxin genes (ctx A, zot and ace), virulence-associated genes (tcp A and tox T) and RAPD sequences. Except for one strain (no. 1123) from the Amazonas State, all the strains analysed carried the genes ctx A, zot, ace, tcp A and tox T. RAPD fingerprinting revealed variability but no correlation with serotype, biotype or geographical origin of the isolates was found. CONCLUSION: A standardized RAPD method does not enable the establishment of a pattern data bank for the identification of V. cholerae O1 strains. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The simplicity and discriminative capacity of this technique make it useful for detecting genetic diversity among micro-organisms from a defined group or for outbreak investigation.     

A whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism-based approach to trace and identify outbreaks linked to a common Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Montevideo pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type

In this study, we report a whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based evolutionary approach to study the epidemiology of a multistate outbreak of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Montevideo. This outbreak included 272 cases that occurred in 44 states between July 2009 and April 2010. A case-control study linked the consumption of salami made with contaminated black and red pepper to the outbreak. We sequenced, on the SOLiD System, 47 isolates with XbaI PFGE pattern JIXX01.0011, a common pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) pattern associated with isolates from the outbreak. These isolates represented 20 isolates collected from human sources during the period of the outbreak and 27 control isolates collected from human, food, animal, and environmental sources before the outbreak. Based on 253 high-confidence SNPs, we were able to reconstruct a tip-dated molecular clock phylogeny of the isolates and to assign four human isolates to the actual outbreak. We developed an SNP typing assay to rapidly discriminate between outbreak-related cases and non-outbreak-related cases and tested this assay on an extended panel of 112 isolates. These results suggest that only a very small percentage of the human isolates with the outbreak PFGE pattern and obtained during the outbreak period could be attributed to the actual pepper-related outbreak (20%), while the majority (80%) of the putative cases represented background cases. This study demonstrates that next-generation-based SNP typing provides the resolution and accuracy needed for outbreak investigations of food-borne pathogens that cannot be distinguished by currently used subtyping methods.