Mechanistic models for wind dispersal

The growing need for ecological forecasts of, for example, species migration, has increased interest in developing mechanistic models for wind dispersal of seeds, pollen and spores. Analytical models are only able to predict mean dispersal distances, whereas sophisticated trajectory simulation models are able to incorporate rare wind conditions causing long-distance dispersal and are therefore preferable. Despite the rapid development of mechanistic dispersal models, only a few studies have focused on comparing the performance of the models. To assess the level of model complexity needed, attention should be paid to model comparisons and the sensitivity of the predictions to model complexity. In addition to studying the movement of airborne particles, future modelling work should also focus on the processes of particle release and deposition.     

Modelling pollen‐mediated gene flow in rice: risk assessment and management of transgene escape

Fast development and commercialization of genetically modified plants have aroused concerns of transgene escape and its environmental consequences. A model that can effectively predict pollen‐mediated gene flow (PMGF) is essential for assessing and managing risks from transgene escape. A pollen‐trap method was used to measure the wind‐borne pollen dispersal in cultivated rice and common wild rice, and effects of relative humidity, temperature and wind speed on pollen dispersal were estimated. A PMGF model was constructed based on the pollen dispersal pattern in rice, taking outcrossing rates of recipients and cross‐compatibility between rice and its wild relatives into consideration. Published rice gene flow data were used to validate the model. Pollen density decreased in a simple exponential pattern with distances to the rice field. High relative humidity reduced pollen dispersal distances. Model simulation showed an increased PMGF frequency with the increase of pollen source size (the area of a rice field), but this effect levelled off with a large pollen‐source size. Cross‐compatibility is essential when modelling PMGF from rice to its wild relatives. The model fits the data well, including PMGF from rice to its wild relatives. Therefore, it can be used to predict PMGF in rice under diverse conditions (e.g. different outcrossing rates and cross‐compatibilities), facilitating the determination of isolation distances to minimize transgene escape. The PMGF model may be extended to other wind‐pollinated plant species such as wheat and barley.     

The release of genetically modified grasses. Part 2: the influence of wind direction on pollen dispersal

 In part 1 an experiment was described for determining the extent of pollen dispersal from a Lolium source. The results were used to test Bateman’s pollen dispersal equations, which were found to be not particularly useful for describing variation in pollen deposition with distance. An improvement is suggested here which takes the influence of wind direction into account. For 11 of the 12 datasets the new equations fit significantly better than the original ones. Mean wind directions were used to produce 15 data subsets for testing Bateman’s equations for dispersal downwind of a pollen source. These equations fitted only 4 of the data subsets, all of which were collected from traps facing towards the pollen source. The usefulness of the model equations in estimating the importance of turbulence is brought into question. It is shown that models incorporating only distance and wind direction do not accurately describe pollen deposition. The amount of pollen deposited does not always decrease smoothly with increasing distance from the source. The variation in the amount of pollen deposited is probably influenced by several factors, including wind speed and turbulence. Received: 5 June 1996 / Accepted: 11 October 1996     

Effects of seed morphology and orientation on secondary seed dispersal by wind

传播体形态与方位对二次种子风力传播的影响     

Dispersal of spores and pollen from crops

Fungal spores and pollens can be dispersed in a number of ways: by animals and insects; by water; by wind or by rain. This paper concentrates on the effects of wind on the dispersal of spores and pollen grains and the effects of rain on spore dispersal. For dispersal to be successful particles must complete three phases: removal, dispersal through the air and deposition. The biology of the organism and its environment can affect all three phases, however, once released the fate of all airborne particles largely depends on the laws of physics which govern the motion of the air. Many types of spore are actively ejected into the air while others are simply blown from the host surface. Particle size and shape affects dispersal and deposition phases. Local environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and light, as well as wind or rain, can play a key role in the removal of spores. Wind speed and turbulence or rainfall, largely determine spore dispersal, but, the size and shape of the particle, the nature of the plant canopy and the way the particles are released into the air may also be important. Particle deposition depends on both environmental and biological factors. This paper briefly considers these processes using examples and how they can be modelled.     

An assessment of predictive forecasting of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Juniperus ashei</Emphasis> pollen movement in the Southern Great Plains,USA

Juniperus ashei pollen, a significant aeroallergen, has been recorded during December and January in Tulsa, Oklahoma, over the past 20 years. The nearest upwind source for this pollen is populations growing in southern Oklahoma and central Texas, at distances of 200 km and 600 km respectively. Long-distance dispersal of J. ashei pollen into the Tulsa area shows a strong correlation with the trajectories of wind blowing across southern populations before traveling north towards eastern Oklahoma. The strong tie between climatic conditions and the occurrence of this aeroallergen within the Tulsa, Oklahoma, atmosphere provided a unique opportunity to forecast the dispersal, entrainment, and downwind deposition of this significant aeroallergen. Forecasts of long-distance J. ashei pollen dispersal began during the winter of 1998/1999. Each forecast uses defined climatic parameters to signal pollination at each source site. Coupled to these estimates of pollen release, forecast weather conditions and modeled wind trajectories are used to determine the threat of dispersal to downwind communities. The accuracy of these forecasts was determined by comparing the forecast "threat" to aerobiological records for the same period collected in the "Tulsa region". Analysis of the two seasons revealed only a single occurrence of "high" or "very high" pollen concentrations in Tulsa not directly linked to "moderate" or "severe" forecast threats from the southern source areas.     

A model of pollen-mediated gene flow for oilseed rape

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has precipitated the need for risk assessment and regulation of pollen-mediated gene flow. In response to this need we present a mathematical model to predict the spatial distribution of outcrossing between progenitor populations of oilseed rape. The model combines the processes of pollen dispersal and pollination, resulting from wind and insect activity. It includes the effects of post-pollination reproductive processes by relating the number of progeny to both pollen deposition and competition at the stigma. Predictions compare well with a range of experimental results for different-sized GM source crops (i.e. 0.0064-0.8 ha) and non-GM target crops with different fertilities (i.e. self-fertile to 80% male-sterile). For these comparisons, we represent the variation caused by wind and insect exposure as a constrained set of random functions and limit the range of insect transport to typical plant-scale distances. In addition, the model is used to examine the relative sensitivity to the factors that determine gene flow. Target-crop fertility and source-crop size are shown to be more important than other factors, including background pollen and the natural range of insect activity. The concept of isolation distance to regulate gene flow is most effective for self-fertile target crops, but is ineffective for male-sterile target crops with low background pollen.     

Size-dependent ESS sex allocation in wind-pollinated cosexual plants: fecundity vs. stature effects

To theoretically investigate the single and compound effects of relative fecundity and relative stature of plants on size-dependent sex allocation (SDS) in wind-pollinated cosexual species, we developed a game model and analysed ESS sex allocation of large and small plants having totally or partially different reproductive resources and different pollen and seed dispersal areas in a population. We found that e.g. when both sized plants have large pollen dispersal areas relative to their seed dispersal areas, which plants are male-biased is largely determined by relative fecundity (t) and relative size of seed dispersal area (k) of the large plants to the small plants: If t >k, large plants tend to be more male-biased even if relative size of pollen dispersal area of large to small plants (l) is smaller than k. If t相似文献   

Spatial models of pollen dispersal in the forage grass meadow fescue

Several bivariate probability distributions, generated by different underlying dispersal mechanisms, are fitted to the observed frequencies of an isozyme marker gene using a maximum likelihood approach. The pollen dispersal data were generated using two experimental populations of meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis Huds.), homozygous for different allozymes at the (Pgi-2) locus, arranged in a circular donor–acceptor field design. The contribution of a plant depends on plant position, fecundity and flowering time, factors which are taken into account when fitting the different models. Several approximate likelihood-ratio tests are done between alternative nested models, and a wind threshold model with bimodality in the wind direction is selected. The evolutionarily important variances and expectations of gene displacement under the selected model are calculated. It is also shown that the underlying probability distribution is significantly more than exponentially leptokurtic. By fitting a distribution of deposition in all three dimensions to the data, taking into account differences in plant height, separate estimates of additional physical parameters are obtained, showing that gravity and vertical random movements are more important than intervening vegetation in limiting pollen dispersal in meadow fescue. According to the model, plants with a high seed yield contribute pollen over-proportionally to neighbouring plants. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sex‐specific selection on plant architecture through “budget” and “direct” effects in experimental populations of the wind‐pollinated herb,Mercurialis annua

Sexual selection may contribute to the evolution of plant sexual dimorphism by favoring architectural traits in males that improve pollen dispersal to mates. In both sexes, larger individuals may be favored by allowing the allocation of more resources to gamete production (a “budget” effect of size). In wind‐pollinated plants, large size may also benefit males by allowing the liberation of pollen from a greater height, fostering its dispersal (a “direct” effect of size). To assess these effects and their implications for trait selection, we measured selection on plant morphology in both males and females of the wind‐pollinated dioecious herb Mercurialis annua in two separate experimental common gardens at contrasting density. In both gardens, selection strongly favored males that disperse their pollen further. Selection for pollen production was observed in the high‐density garden only, and was weak. In addition, male morphologies associated with increased mean pollen dispersal differed between the two gardens, as elongated branches were favored in the high‐density garden, whereas shorter plants with longer inflorescence stalks were favored in the low‐density garden. Larger females were selected in both gardens. Our results point to the importance of both a direct effect of selection on male traits that affect pollen dispersal, and, to a lesser extent, a budget effect of selection on pollen production.     

Directional seed and pollen dispersal and their separate effects on anisotropy of fine‐scale spatial genetic structure among seedlings in a dioecious,wind‐pollinated,and wind‐dispersed tree species,Cercidiphyllum japonicum

Prevailing directions of seed and pollen dispersal may induce anisotropy of the fine‐scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS), particularly in wind‐dispersed and wind‐pollinated species. To examine the separate effects of directional seed and pollen dispersal on FSGS, we conducted a population genetics study for a dioecious, wind‐pollinated, and wind‐dispersed tree species, Cercidiphyllum japonicum Sieb. et Zucc, based on genotypes at five microsatellite loci of 281 adults of a population distributed over a ca. 80 ha along a stream and 755 current‐year seedlings. A neighborhood model approach with exponential‐power‐von Mises functions indicated shorter seed dispersal (mean = 69.1 m) and much longer pollen dispersal (mean = 870.6 m), effects of dispersal directions on the frequencies of seed and pollen dispersal, and the directions with most frequent seed and pollen dispersal (prevailing directions). Furthermore, the distance of effective seed dispersal within the population was estimated to depend on the dispersal direction and be longest at the direction near the prevailing direction. Therefore, patterns of seed and pollen dispersal may be affected by effective wind directions during the period of respective dispersals. Isotropic FSGS and spatial sibling structure analyses indicated a significant FSGS among the seedlings generated by the limited seed dispersal, but anisotropic analysis for the seedlings indicated that the strength of the FSGS varied with directions between individuals and was weakest at a direction near the directions of the most frequent and longest seed dispersal but far from the prevailing direction of pollen dispersal. These results suggest that frequent and long‐distance seed dispersal around the prevailing direction weakens the FSGS around the prevailing direction. Therefore, spatially limited but directional seed dispersal would determine the existence and direction of FSGS among the seedlings.     

Mapping airborne pollen of papaya (Carica papaya L.) and its distribution related to land use using GIS and remote sensing

Papaya is an economically important plant in Thailand for domestic consumption and export. However, papaya is extremely susceptible to disease caused by the papaya ring spot virus. Although transgenic papaya has been developed, commercial cultivation of transgenic plants in Thailand is still illegal. One concern is cross-pollination to conventional varieties. In this study, windborne-pollen dispersion of papaya (Carica papaya L.) was investigated using geographic information systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Pollen traps were placed around a papaya plot in eight geographic directions, with radiuses varying from 5 to 900 m from the plot. Pollen counts were made for 12 different dates, and data were input into a GIS database. The distribution of pollen and its relation to land use were analyzed using land use data obtained from Quickbird imagery acquired during 2007. Comparative analyses of pollen dispersal, wind direction, and speed were made using data collected from a micro-climatic station set up at a papaya plot. The furthest distance from the plot that pollen was found was at 0.9 km, a distance at which only 1 pollen grain was found. The number of pollen grains carried by wind decreased as distance increased. The direction of dispersal was not in accordance with wind direction data. Most pollen grains were found in agricultural areas and bare land. The total number of pollen grains found in exposed areas was considerably higher than the total found in areas sheltered by dense tree lines.     

Modelling pollen sedimentation in Danish lakes at c.ad 1800: an attempt to validate the POLLSCAPE model

Aims To validate the POLLSCAPE simulation model of pollen dispersal and deposition, and evaluate the effect of factors such as pollen productivity, wind speed and regional plant abundance, using a data set of ad 1800 pollen assemblages and historical land cover data. Location Denmark. Methods ad 1800 land cover from historical maps is digitized for 2000 m radii around 30 Danish lakes (3.5–33 ha). The simulation model POLLSCAPE is used to predict sedimentary pollen assemblages in the lakes from the plant abundance data inferred from these maps, with different model parameter settings for wind speed, pollen productivity, regional pollen loading, etc. The model predictions are compared with observed ad 1800 pollen assemblages from the lake sediment records. Furthermore, pollen productivity is estimated from the ad 1800 pollen and vegetation data using the Extended R‐value model. Results Generally the model reproduces the patterns in the observed pollen assemblages, and for most pollen types there are significant correlations between observed and predicted pollen proportions. The pollen proportions predicted by the POLLSCAPE model are sensitive to the pollen productivity estimates used, the regional background pollen loading and average wind speed. There is a difference in background pollen loading between eastern and western Denmark, especially of Calluna pollen. The fit between predicted and observed pollen assemblages is best at wind speeds around 2.5 m s^?1, and decreases rapidly at lower wind speeds. The pollen productivity estimates from the ad 1800 data set are comparable with estimates from moss polsters in modern analogues of traditional cultural landscapes in Sweden and Norway. Main conclusions The POLLSCAPE model reproduces the patterns in the observed pollen assemblages from the lakes well, considering the uncertainty in the historical plant abundance data. This study indicates that the simulation model can be a useful tool for investigating relationships between vegetation and pollen composition, but also that the simulated pollen proportions are sensitive to the pollen productivity estimates, the regional background and to wind speed.     

Spatially explicit modelling of transgenic maize pollen dispersal and cross-pollination

Modelling of pollen dispersal and cross-pollination is of great importance for the ongoing discussion on thresholds for the adventitious presence of genetically modified material in food and feed. Two different modelling approaches for pollen dispersal are used to simulate the cross-pollination rate of pollen emerged from an adjacent transgenic crop field. The models are applied to cross-pollination data from field experiments with transgenic maize (Zea mays). The data were generated by an experimental setup specifically designed to suit the demands of mathematical modelling. First a Gaussian plume model is used for the simulation of pollen transport in and from plant canopies. This is a semiempirical approach combining the atmospheric diffusion equation and Lagrangian methodology. The second model is derived from the localised near field (LNF) theory and based on the physical processes in the canopy. Both modelling approaches prove to be appropriate for the simulation of the cross-pollination rates at distances of about 7.5m and more from the transgene source. The simulation of the cross-pollination rate is less precise at the edge of the source plot especially with the LNF theory. However, the simulation results lie within the range of variability of the observations. Concluding can be pointed out that both models might be adapted to other pollen dispersal experiments of different crops and plot sizes.     

Introduction: International conference on forest ecosystems: Ecology,conservation and sustainable management

Abstract

A pollen diagram from a small lake, Kutulahdenlampi, in northern Finland is interpreted in terms of the development of forest vegetation during the Holocene. The abundance of each of the forest taxa is considered independently by means of pollen accumulation rates (PARs), using as the reference material, long term average pollen deposition values monitored by a network of pollen traps. Particular attention is paid to the arrival of spruce and to the species in the original forests that this newcomer replaces. A model of pollen dispersal and deposition developed by Sugita is used to estimate the area around the lake that the pollen assemblage is most clearly reflecting. This relevant source area of pollen (RSAP), for the present day situations is c. 1,500 m. Pollen loadings calculated for a simulated landscape that mimics (i) that of the present day and (ii) for the situation at 8,000 BP (as deduced from the PARs) are compared with the pollen assemblages from the diagram at those points in time, and are seen to be compatible. The advantages of combining PAR and modelling to look at the spatial scale of vegetation reconstructions are discussed.     

Leptokurtic pollen-flow,non-leptokurtic gene-flow in a wind-pollinated herb,Plantago lanceolata L.

Summary The purpose of this study was to simultaneously measure pollen dispersal distance and actual pollen-mediated gene-flow distance in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata. The pollen dispersal distribution, measured as pollen deposition in a wind tunnel, is leptokurtic, as expected from previous studies of wind-pollinated plants. Gene-flow, measured as seeds produced on rows of male-sterile inflorescences in the wind tunnel, is non-leptokurtic, peaking at an intermediate distance. The difference between the two distributions results from the tendency of the pollen grains to cluster. These pollen clusters are the units of gene dispersal, with clusters of intermediate and large size contributing disproportionately to gene-flow. Since many wind-pollinated species show pollen clustering (see text), the common assumption for wind-pollinated plants that gene-flow is leptokurtic requires re-examination. Gene-flow was also measured in an artifical outdoor population of male-steriles, containing a single pollen source plant in the center of the array. The gene flow distribution is significantly platykurtic, and has the same general properties outdoors, where wind speed and turbulence are uncontrolled, as it does in the wind tunnel. I estimated genetic neighborhood size based on my measure of gene-flow in the outdoor population. The estimate shows that populations of Plantago lanceolata will vary in effective number from a few tens of plants to more than five hundred plants, depending on the density of the population in question. Thus, the measured pollen-mediated gene-flow distribution and population density will interact to produce effective population sizes ranging from those in which there is no random genetic drift to those in which random genetic drift plays an important role in determining gene frequencies within and among populations. Despite the platykurtosis in the distribution, pollen-mediated gene dispersal distances are still quite limited, and considerable within and among-population genetic differentiation is to be expected in this species.     

Estimating past vegetation openness using pollen–vegetation relationships: A modelling approach

We used a modelling approach to assess past landscape openness in mid-Holocene natural vegetation. Two simple landscape scenarios were modelled: a first landscape was based on the “Vera cycle” hypothesis for western Europe, including different phases of herbivore-induced vegetation change and regeneration, while a second landscape was created based on views how a mid-Holocene natural vegetation may have looked like on the Swiss Plateau according to the closed canopy theory. These simulated landscapes were used to produce pollen assemblages by means of a pollen dispersal and deposition model. The resulting modelled pollen assemblages were then compared to a typical mid-Holocene pollen record from the Swiss Plateau. Our results indicated that the mid-Holocene pollen record is likely to be the result of a closed beech forest. However, the vegetation cover on the Swiss Plateau had components from both the closed woodland and the wood pasture landscape designs, with the latter likely at frequently disturbed or naturally open habitats.     

Fragmentation reduces regional‐scale spatial genetic structure in a wind‐pollinated tree because genetic barriers are removed

Gene flow strongly influences the regional genetic structuring of plant populations. Seed and pollen dispersal patterns can respond differently to the increased isolation resulting from habitat fragmentation, with unpredictable consequences for gene flow and population structuring. In a recently fragmented landscape we compared the pre‐ and post‐fragmentation genetic structure of populations of a tree species where pollen and seed dispersal respond differentially to forest fragmentation generated by flooding. Castanopsis sclerophylla is wind‐pollinated, with seeds that are dispersed by gravity and rodents. Using microsatellites, we found no significant difference in genetic diversity between pre‐ and post‐fragmentation cohorts. Significant genetic structure was observed in pre‐fragmentation cohorts, due to an unknown genetic barrier that had isolated one small population. Among post‐fragmentation cohorts this genetic barrier had disappeared and genetic structure was significantly weakened. The strengths of genetic structuring were at a similar level in both cohorts, suggesting that overall gene flow of C. sclerophylla has been unchanged by fragmentation at the regional scale. Fragmentation has blocked seed dispersal among habitats, but this appears to have been compensated for by enhanced pollen dispersal, as indicated by the disappearance of a genetic barrier, probably as a result of increased wind speeds and easier pollen movement over water. Extensive pollen flow can counteract some negative effects of fragmentation and assist the long‐term persistence of small remnant populations.     

Fire‐induced population reduction and landscape opening increases gene flow via pollen dispersal in Pinus halepensis

Population reduction and disturbances may alter dispersal, mating patterns and gene flow. Rather than taking the common approach of comparing different populations or sites, here we studied gene flow via wind‐mediated effective pollen dispersal on the same plant individuals before and after a fire‐induced population drop, in a natural stand of Pinus halepensis. The fire killed 96% of the pine trees in the stand and cleared the vegetation in the area. Thirteen trees survived in two groups separated by ~80 m, and seven of these trees had serotinous (closed) prefire cones that did not open despite the fire. We analysed pollen from closed pre and postfire cones using microsatellites. The two groups of surviving trees were highly genetically differentiated, and the pollen they produced also showed strong among‐group differentiation and very high kinship both before and after the fire, indicating limited and very local pollen dispersal. The pollen not produced by the survivors also showed significant prefire spatial genetic structure and high kinship, indicating mainly within‐population origin and limited gene flow from outside, but became spatially homogeneous with random kinship after the fire. We suggest that postfire gene flow via wind‐mediated pollen dispersal increased by two putative mechanisms: (i) a drastic reduction in local pollen production due to population thinning, effectively increasing pollen immigration through reduced dilution effect; (ii) an increase in wind speeds in the vegetation‐free postfire landscape. This research shows that dispersal can alleviate negative genetic effects of population size reduction and that disturbances might enhance gene flow, rather than reduce it.