Modelling the presence of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus in the Aegean Sea during early summer, based on satellite environmental data

Acoustic and satellite environmental data as well as bathymetry data were used to model the presence of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus during early summer in the northern Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean). Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were used for modelling and subsequently applied in a predictive mode to identify those areas in the Greek Seas and the entire Mediterranean basin that could support species’ presence. Model results were evaluated with the estimation of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-plots as well as qualitatively, based on (a) acoustic data from concurrent studies in certain areas of the northern Aegean Sea that were not included in the estimation of the GAM model and (b) historical acoustic data from the central Aegean and Ionian Seas. Mapping the estimated environmental conditions in the Mediterranean basin indicated areas that generally agree with the known distribution grounds of anchovy, such as the straits of Sicily and coastal waters of Tunisia, areas in the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Adriatic Sea, the Gulf of Lions and the Catalan Sea. Guest editor: V. D. Valavanis Essential Fish Habitat Mapping in the Mediterranean     

Identifying conservation priority areas and predicting the climate change impact on the future habitats of endangered Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. utilizing ecological niche modelling

Developing strategies for effective species conservation is necessary to counter the ever-fluctuating environmental conditions with increasing anthropogenic activities. Studies have proven Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) as an effective tool for sustainable conservation. Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. is an endangered pitcher plant facing a constant decline in population due to anthropogenic activities. This study aimed to locate the most suitable areas for re-establishing the species in natural habitats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and to forecast the effects of current and future climate conditions on its distribution throughout Northeast India. The potential suitable areas in future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and in the current climate were predicted utilizing the 30 occurrence data, bioclimatic predictors, and variables from BCC-CSM1.1 model and WorldClim respectively. The results of the current study showed significant relationships among annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, seasonality of precipitation, annual range iso-thermality of temperature, mean diurnal range [Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)], and the distribution of the analysed species. The optimum model performance was represented by the AUC value of 0.972 ± 0.007. The model predicted 10.70% of the NE Indian region as climatically suitable, which will expand under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, reaching 15.35%, and 12.64%, respectively. However, this may degrade significantly under RCP8.5, reducing to 8.14%. Based on the analysis of modelling results it was found that the Nokrek belt and the Khasi hills as highly suitable regions for the reintroduction of the species. The study revalidated ENM as an effective means to identify new populations and predict the influence of climate change on the future habitat which can benefit the concurrent species management strategies.     

Ecological niche modeling of the sympatric giant and red pandas on a mountain-range scale

Habitat use and separation between the two sympatric species, the giant panda and the red panda, have been primary causes of coexistence at the fine scale. In this paper, we addressed the question of coexistence between species in space. By Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, we calculated species-specific habitat requirements, built habitat suitability maps and examined interspecific differences in spatial niche parameters. According to the ENFA scores, suitable habitats in the giant and red panda are surrounded by high-altitude, and are rich in conifer forest. Compared with the giant panda, however, the red panda rather preferred sparse forests, and normally colonized far from village and road. Despite similar narrow niche breadth for both pandas, difference of niche overlap indices implied that the width of environmental niche of red pandas almost completely encompasses that of the giant panda. We, therefore, suggest that differences in use of ecological niche variables may contribute to coexistence of the sympatric species in space. Based on highly suitable locations of the sympatric species maps, most official reserves appear to be poorly located or are too small, and new reserves are recommended to be established in the central part of core habitats in the Liangshan Mountains.     

基于改进三维生态足迹模型的洞庭湖区生态可持续时空演化研究

洞庭湖是长江流域重要的调蓄湖泊,也是中国重要的农产品主产区。科学评估洞庭湖区生态可持续状态,揭示其时空演化特征,对探究其生态可持续影响因素与作用机理,降低生态赤字具有重要意义。基于碳足迹与生态足迹理论构建了改进的三维生态足迹模型,填补了化石能源无法核算生态承载力的问题,同时调整了不同土地利用类型的参数因子。在对洞庭湖区25个区县进行可持续发展的动态评价分析中,计算了2000—2019年生态赤字、足迹广度与深度的时空分布特征。研究结果表明：(1)近20年来洞庭湖区的人均生态足迹增长速度远高于人均生态承载力,致使人均生态赤字在时间维度上不断增大,空间维度上呈湖滨向周边地区扩散的趋势;(2)洞庭湖区除林地之外的土地利用类型均存在自然资本存量的消耗,且表现为高生态赤字;(3)三次产业结构的分配、土地利用的变化、居民对生活质量的提高以及生态保护政策的有效实施等均会对洞庭湖区的可持续发展产生较大影响;(4)改进后的化石能源账户相较于传统账户的计算方法更能反映真实的碳排量与碳吸收量。研究以期为洞庭湖区土地利用、生态保护以及促进社会经济可持续发展提供科学参考。     

基于VGPM模型和MODIS数据估算梅梁湾浮游植物初级生产力

基于MODIS影像数据反演的2009年2月份至12月份太湖梅梁湾水域表面叶绿素a、悬浮物浓度以及水温数据,结合初级生产力垂向归纳模型(Vertically Generalized Production Model:VGPM)估算获得梅梁湾2009年逐月平均日初级生产力时空分布。结果表明,梅梁湾2009年年平均日初级生产力及逐月平均日初级生产力空间分布差异显著,呈现从湾内向湾口逐渐递减的趋势。时间序列分析显示,梅梁湾初级生产力季节差异显著,夏季>秋季>春季>冬季,全年初级生产力主要集中在夏季,占47.4%。通过分析VGPM模型中几个输入参数对初级生产力的影响,发现悬浮物浓度与标准化初级生产力存在显著负冥函数关系,反映沉积物再悬浮引起的悬浮物浓度增加能降低水体初级生产力。温度对初级生产力也有一定的调控与制约,与初级生产力呈现正相关趋势,在低于21℃的温度范围内与最大光合作用速率呈现正相关。