中国旱灾风险定量评估

全球变暖及经济社会快速发展导致区域及全球性灾害风险增大,中国更是几乎每年都会遭受旱灾,因此,开展旱灾风险评估及影响因素研究对于区域经济社会可持续发展和灾害风险管理具有重要意义。以前的旱灾风险评估在评估方法以及评估指标选取方面都具有很强的主观性,导致风险评估结果具有强烈的不确定性,这在划定我国的高旱灾风险区域时可能会造成问题。基于旱灾风险的定义,合理假设"历史上旱灾损失高的地区遭受高旱灾损失的概率越大",引入历史旱灾损失资料对旱灾风险进行校正,构建了新的旱灾风险评估模型,揭示了中国旱灾风险的区域分异规律,并量化了各个影响因子的贡献水平。分析结果表明,我国存在5个显著的旱灾高风险区：东北地区、华北地区、西北地区东部、西南地区东部以及西北地区西部的小部分区域。影响因子分析进一步表明,高暴露度和高脆弱性是导致地区出现高旱灾风险的主要原因。     

Quantitative risk assessment for developmental toxicity.

Pharmaceutical companies and governmental regulatory agencies are becoming increasingly aware of the need for improved statistical methods for developmental toxicity experiments. Although a number of statisticians have become interested in this area, activity has centered mostly on the development of methods to analyze binary outcomes, such as malformations among live pups, while accounting appropriately for the correlation induced by the litter effect. In contrast, the topic of quantitative risk assessment has received relatively little attention. This paper addresses the specific question of how to assess risk appropriately when exposure causes a variety of adverse effects, including resorption and fetal death, in addition to malformations. It will be seen that risk assessments based on a single developmental outcome, such as malformation, may be conservative. A method is proposed for estimating an exposure level at which the overall risk of any adverse effect is acceptably low. The method is based on a continuation ratio formulation of a multinomial distribution, with an additional scale parameter to account for overdispersion. Comparisons are made with binary models on prenatal death and malformation, as well as a binary model that makes no distinction between death and malformation, but simply classifies each fetus as normal or abnormal. Data from several developmental toxicity studies illustrate the results and findings.     

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment: principles applied to determining the comparative risk of salmonellosis from chicken products

Since causal links have been established between food-borne illness and particular microorganisms, it has been possible to assess the public health risks of their presence in foods and propose measures to ensure the safety of customers. Effective control measures for food safety have been based on knowledge of the resistance of pathogenic microorganisms to the treatments used for preservation (e.g. acidification or reduced water activity) or decontamination (e.g. pasteurisation or sterilisation). Using this principle, food safety has been managed informally and successfully within the food industry for many years. Recently, formal risk assessment schemes, for example from Codex Alimentarius, have developed and placed the elements of decision-making on suitable control measures into a formal framework with clearly identifiable stages. The output of the four stages of a formal risk assessment (hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation) provides the basis for decisions on actions needed to control the identified hazard. There are many difficulties in ensuring that risk assessments are realistic and accessible to potential users, in many cases their value is limited by the data available. The study reported here on control of Salmonella in poultry products illustrates that it is possible to produce a comparative risk assessment based on published data. This study is not a full quantitative risk assessment, but provide useful pointers for a risk manager. Differences are discussed between the exposure assessment data needed to propose controls for infectious or toxigenic pathogens. For infectious pathogens, the presence of viable and infectious microorganisms is itself the hazard, but for toxigenic microorganisms, absence or destruction of viable cells at ingestion does not in itself ensure the absence of toxin. For toxin hazards, exposure assessment needs to consider previous conditions that may have led to toxin formation and persistence, rather than just the level of microbes at ingestion.     

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for consumption of raw vegetables irrigated with reclaimed water

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for estimating the annual risk of enteric virus infection associated with consuming raw vegetables that have been overhead irrigated with nondisinfected secondary treated reclaimed water were constructed. We ran models for several different scenarios of crop type, viral concentration in effluent, and time since last irrigation event. The mean annual risk of infection was always less for cucumber than for broccoli, cabbage, or lettuce. Across the various crops, effluent qualities, and viral decay rates considered, the annual risk of infection ranged from 10(-3) to 10(-1) when reclaimed-water irrigation ceased 1 day before harvest and from 10(-9) to 10(-3) when it ceased 2 weeks before harvest. Two previously published decay coefficients were used to describe the die-off of viruses in the environment. For all combinations of crop type and effluent quality, application of the more aggressive decay coefficient led to annual risks of infection that satisfied the commonly propounded benchmark of < or =10(-4), i.e., one infection or less per 10,000 people per year, providing that 14 days had elapsed since irrigation with reclaimed water. Conversely, this benchmark was not attained for any combination of crop and water quality when this withholding period was 1 day. The lower decay rate conferred markedly less protection, with broccoli and cucumber being the only crops satisfying the 10(-4) standard for all water qualities after a 14-day withholding period. Sensitivity analyses on the models revealed that in nearly all cases, variation in the amount of produce consumed had the most significant effect on the total uncertainty surrounding the estimate of annual infection risk. The models presented cover what would generally be considered to be worst-case scenarios: overhead irrigation and consumption of vegetables raw. Practices such as subsurface, furrow, or drip irrigation and postharvest washing/disinfection and food preparation could substantially lower risks and need to be considered in future models, particularly for developed nations where these extra risk reduction measures are more common.     

纳米银胶/壳聚糖复合抗菌剂的制备及其在洗涤产品中抗菌性能

本文研究了纳米银胶/壳聚糖抗菌剂的制备及其形貌的表征分析,以大肠杆菌为代表菌株,研究了复合抗菌剂在洗涤产品中的抗菌效率及抗菌的稳定性,结果说明复合抗菌剂在洗涤产品中添加1.0%时,其抗菌效率达99%,经180 d长期分析,其抗菌活性仍保持95%左右。此外,复合抗菌剂对不同菌株的抗菌性能也均较强。     

Quantitative risk assessment for multivariate continuous outcomes with application to neurotoxicology: the bivariate case

The neurotoxic effects of chemical agents are often investigated in controlled studies on rodents, with multiple binary and continuous endpoints routinely collected. One goal is to conduct quantitative risk assessment to determine safe dose levels. Such studies face two major challenges for continuous outcomes. First, characterizing risk and defining a benchmark dose are difficult. Usually associated with an adverse binary event, risk is clearly definable in quantal settings as presence or absence of an event; finding a similar probability scale for continuous outcomes is less clear. Often, an adverse event is defined for continuous outcomes as any value below a specified cutoff level in a distribution assumed normal or log normal. Second, while continuous outcomes are traditionally analyzed separately for such studies, recent literature advocates also using multiple outcomes to assess risk. We propose a method for modeling and quantitative risk assessment for bivariate continuous outcomes that address both difficulties by extending existing percentile regression methods. The model is likelihood based; it allows separate dose-response models for each outcome while accounting for the bivariate correlation and overall characterization of risk. The approach to estimation of a benchmark dose is analogous to that for quantal data without the need to specify arbitrary cutoff values. We illustrate our methods with data from a neurotoxicity study of triethyl tin exposure in rats.     

Two new alkaloids from Pachysandra terminalis and their antibacterial activity assessment

Phytochemical investigation of a 90 % ethanol extract of Pachysandra terminalis Sieb. Et Zucc led to the isolation of a novel alkaloid, terminamine T (1); a new pregnane-type alkaloid, terminamine U (2); and four known pregnane-type alkaloids (3-6). The structures of these compounds were elucidated on the basis of nuclear magnetic resonance spectra, mass spectrometry data, single-crystal X-ray diffraction, and by a comparison with data from the literature. All compounds were evaluated for their antibacterial activities against gram-positive (S. aureus, ATCC 29213) and gram-negative (E. coli, ATCC 25922) bacteria. Compounds 2-6 exhibited generally modest to poor antibiotic properties. Furthermore, compound 2 showed antibacterial activity against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis (MRSE), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus USA300 (LAC) with a minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) value of 32 μg/mL (75 μM) and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) values of 64, 128, and 128 μg/mL (150, 300, and 300 μM), respectively.     

Alternative hand contamination technique to compare the activities of antimicrobial and nonantimicrobial soaps under different test conditions

Antimicrobial hand soaps provide a greater bacterial reduction than nonantimicrobial soaps. However, the link between greater bacterial reduction and a reduction of disease has not been definitively demonstrated. Confounding factors, such as compliance, soap volume, and wash time, may all influence the outcomes of studies. The aim of this work was to examine the effects of wash time and soap volume on the relative activities and the subsequent transfer of bacteria to inanimate objects for antimicrobial and nonantimicrobial soaps. Increasing the wash time from 15 to 30 seconds increased reduction of Shigella flexneri from 2.90 to 3.33 log(10) counts (P = 0.086) for the antimicrobial soap, while nonantimicrobial soap achieved reductions of 1.72 and 1.67 log(10) counts (P > 0.6). Increasing soap volume increased bacterial reductions for both the antimicrobial and the nonantimicrobial soaps. When the soap volume was normalized based on weight (approximately 3 g), nonantimicrobial soap reduced Serratia marcescens by 1.08 log(10) counts, compared to the 3.83-log(10) reduction caused by the antimicrobial soap (P < 0.001). The transfer of Escherichia coli to plastic balls following a 15-second hand wash with antimicrobial soap resulted in a bacterial recovery of 2.49 log(10) counts, compared to the 4.22-log(10) (P < 0.001) bacterial recovery on balls handled by hands washed with nonantimicrobial soap. This indicates that nonantimicrobial soap was less active and that the effectiveness of antimicrobial soaps can be improved with longer wash time and greater soap volume. The transfer of bacteria to objects was significantly reduced due to greater reduction in bacteria following the use of antimicrobial soap.     

Quantitative assessment of the effect of MTHFR polymorphisms on the risk of lung carcinoma

Published studies on the relationships between 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms and lung cancer risk have been conflicting. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis was performed. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association between MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and lung cancer risk. A total of 15 studies including 10,753 cases and 11,275 controls described C677T genotypes, among which 11 articles totalling 6,161 cases and 7,684 controls described A1298C genotypes, were also involved in this meta-analysis. Overall, no significantly elevated lung cancer risk was found in any genetic models when all studies were pooled. For C677T polymorphism: (TT vs. CC: OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.97–1.42; TC vs. CC: OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.94–1.20; dominant model: OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.96–1.24; and recessive model: OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.95–1.24); for A1298C polymorphism: (CC vs. AA: OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.91–1.19; AC vs. AA: OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.91–1.06; dominant model: OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.92–1.06; and recessive model: OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.92–1.20). In the subgroup analyses, the results showed that 677T varients could decrease lung cancer risk in female (OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.41–0.95, P-value = 0.03, 677CC as reference). No evidence of any associations of MTHFR A1298C polymorphism with lung cancer was found in overall or subgroup analyses. Our meta-analysis supports that the common polymorphisms of C677T and A1298C in MTHFR gene are not susceptibility gene for lung cancer from currently available evidence.     

Schistosomiasis: from risk assessment to control

In this article, an account of some of the hot areas in schistosomiasis research is given, emphasizing what has been achieved during the past several years in impact assessment and identifying the research frontiers where further action is needed.     

Finding fault with health risk assessment: A typology for risk assessment criticism

Although systematic, quantitative assessment of environmental health risks is a staple of regulatory decision-making, complaints regarding its perceived failures and shortcomings are an intrinsic feature of the policy landscape. In this article, we (a) catalog the classic criticisms of conventional health risk assessment, (b) create a typology that orders the critiques according to their focus on either input errors or output biases, and (c) identify selected allegations that fall within each category. We also note that the risk assessment–risk management paradigm has evolved over the past several decades, partially in accordance with the general direction and spirit of these classic critiques. The debate continues today along familiar lines invoking the traditional critiques and rebuttals outlined here.     

Quantitative assessment of the influence of paraoxonase 1 activity and coronary heart disease risk

Human paraoxonase 1 (PON1) is a calcium-dependent high-density lipoprotein associated ester hydrolase that has attracted considerable attention as a candidate factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) based on its function as a key factor in lipoprotein catabolism pathways. This meta-analysis aimed to clarify the inconsistency of published studies and to establish a comprehensive picture of the relationship between PON1 activity and CHD susceptibility. A systematic search was performed from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and CNKI databases. Ratio of means (RoM) between case and control and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. The source of heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. We identified 47 eligible studies including a total of 9853 CHD cases and 11,408 controls. The pooled analysis showed that CHD patients had a 19% lower PON1 activity than did the controls (RoM=0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89, p<10(-5)). In the subgroup analyses by CHD end points, a similar effect size was observed with coronary stenosis and myocardial infarction subgroups, with corresponding RoM of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89, p<10(-4)) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.93, p=0.001), respectively. Decreased PON1 activity associated with CHD risk was observed in almost all subgroup analysis according to ethnicity, sample size, study design, mean age of cases, source, and type of control. Decreased PON1 activity may act as a risk factor for the development of CHD. Progressive decrease in serum PON1 activity may exist for an individual with severe disease. However, larger studies using a prospective approach are needed to confirm our results.     

Quantitative assessment of the association between TAP2 rs241447 polymorphism and cancer risk

The findings regarding the relation of transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP) to cancer risk have been inconsistent. The aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the association between TAP2 rs241447 polymorphism and cancer susceptibility. A meta-analysis of nine investigations with 2800 cases and 1620 controls was conducted to gain a better understanding of the effect of TAP2 rs241447 polymorphism on cancer risk. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to evaluate the strength of the correlation between TAP2 gene polymorphism and cancer susceptibility. The pooled results from TAP2 rs241447 polymorphism showed a decreased risk of cancer in two dominant genetic models (GG + AG vs AA: OR = 0.86, 95% CI, 0.75-0.99; AG vs AA: OR = 0.85, 95% CI, 0.73-0.99). From the subgroup analysis, decreased cancer susceptibility was found in Caucasians (GG + AG vs AA: OR = 0.82, 95% CI, 0.68-0.99), especially among the subgroup of cervical carcinoma (GG + AG vs AA: OR = 0.82, 95% CI, 0.69-0.96; AG vs AA: OR = 0.83, 95% CI, 0.70-0.99). Overall, the results suggest that TAP2 rs241447 polymorphism contributes to decreased cancer susceptibility.     

Quantitative genetic tools for insecticide resistance risk assessment: estimating the heritability of resistance

Quantitative genetic studies of resistance can provide estimates of genetic parameters not available with other types of genetic analyses. Three methods are discussed for estimating the amount of additive genetic variation in resistance to individual insecticides and subsequent estimation of the heritability (h2) of resistance. Sibling analysis and offspring-parent regression permit direct estimates of h2 by comparing the resistance phenotypes of individuals of known relatedness. Threshold trait analyses, performed on data from selection experiments, provide estimates of realized heritability. Procedures are outlined for predicting changes in resistance to insecticides based on h2 estimates. Quantitative genetic theory is examined as it relates to resistance and resistance as a quantitative trait; quantitative genetic methods also are unique in providing estimates of genetic correlations between traits. Comments are included on estimates of genetic correlation between resistance and phenotypic traits (e.g., development time) and how they may be used to predict changes in the genetic aspects of phenology that result from insecticide applications (i.e., to predict how the reproductive capacity of future generations will differ from that of the treated generation).     

Quantitative assessment of DNA microarrays--comparison with Northern blot analyses

DNA microarray is a powerful technology that provides the expression profile of thousands of genes. However, less attention has been paid to its quantitative aspect. In this study, we constructed a small-scale DNA microarray that contains 84 genes and characterized its quantitative aspect. Analyses with this microarray showed that 17 genes were induced, whereas 8 genes were suppressed at least twofold during the differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells. When repeated with the same combination of fluorescent dyes for probe labeling, the microarray produced consistent data (correlation coefficient = 0.991). In contrast, data were less consistent when repeated with the reverse combination of dyes (correlation coefficient = 0.945). The effect of dye combination was particularly evident in several genes. Total RNA (15 microg) and poly(A) RNA (0.5 microg) showed comparable sensitivity and produced essentially identical data (correlation coefficient = 0.983). The sensitivity of the DNA microarrays was slightly inferior to that of Northern blot analyses. In most genes, data obtained with the two methods were consistent. However, in 4 of 46 genes compared, DNA microarrays failed to detect the expression changes that were revealed by Northern blot. These data demonstrated that DNA microarrays provide quantitative data comparable to Northern blot in general, but a few issues must be considered when analyzing data.     

Quantitative assessment of protein-bound tyrosine nitration in airway secretions from patients with inflammatory airway disease

Because reactive nitrogen species (RNS) have potent inflammatory activity, they may be involved in the inflammatory process in pulmonary diseases. We recently reported increased numbers of 3-nitrotyrosine immunopositive cells, which are evidences of RNS production, in the sputum of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and patients with asthma compared with healthy subjects. In the present study, we attempted to quantify this protein nitration in the airways by means of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) used together with an electrochemical detection system that we developed. Sputum samples were obtained from 15 stable COPD patients, 9 asthmatic patients and 7 healthy subjects by using hypertonic saline inhalation. The values for the molar ratio of protein-bound 3-nitrotyrosine/tyrosine in patients with asthma (4.31 +/- 1.13 x 10(-6), p < 0.05) and patients with COPD (3.04 +/- 0.36 x 10(-6), p < 0.01) were significantly higher than those in healthy subjects (1.37 +/- 0.19 x 10(-6)). The levels of protein-bound 3-nitrotyrosine in the airways were not significantly different in asthmatic patients and COPD patients. A significant negative correlation was found between values for protein-bound 3-nitrotyrosine/tyrosine and % FEV1 values in patients with COPD (r = -0.53, p < 0.05) but not in patients with asthma. These results suggest that our HPLC-electrochemical method is useful for quantifying RNS production in human airways. More importantly, they show that increased RNS production in the airways seems to contribute in a critical way to the pathogenesis of COPD, and that the effects of RNS in airways may differ in asthma and COPD.