Planning for Restoration: A Decision Analysis Approach to Prioritization

Ecological restoration often relies on the use of expert opinion to make management decisions in the face of uncertainty. The quantification of expert opinion can be difficult, especially when more than one expert is consulted and experts are not in agreement. Decision analysis can provide a framework to systematically deconstruct a complex problem and provide greater objectivity to restoration decisions. We utilized decision analysis techniques to identify restoration objectives and to quantify expert opinions to prioritize restoration activities at 112 prairie openings in the Edge of Appalachia Preserve in southern Ohio, U.S.A. We first created an objectives hierarchy to model how decision‐makers decide which prairies to manage. We then determined how to measure each component of the hierarchy and sampled all prairies for percent woody cover, geology, indicator species index (an index of plant species richness), slope, aspect, and distance to nearest prairie. We modeled seven different experts’ preferences for managing prairies with varying values for each of these ecological measures. We then interviewed the same decision‐makers to determine relative weights for each component of the objectives hierarchy using trade‐off analysis. By combining the weights, preference relationships, and sampling data, we were able to rank each prairie and management unit based on its management priority. Experts had similar preferences except for the measure of distance to nearest prairie. We found that decision‐makers gave different weights to each of the different components of the hierarchy. Generally, experts weighted percent woody cover, indicator species index, and geology more highly than slope, aspect, and distance to nearest prairie. Despite these differences, priorities for management, once all factors were weighted and combined, were similar.     

Threat Assessment and Conservation Prioritization of the Herpetofauna of El Salvador

We applied the IUCN Red List method for threat assessment to the amphibians and reptiles of El Salvador, the smallest Central American country. Seventy-six out of 130 species were found to be threatened or endangered at the national level. In general, most threatened taxa were aquatic organisms in lowland habitats or cloud-forest specialists in highland areas. The IUCN method was biased by collecting effort and was unable to classify 25 species that were categorized as ȁ8data deficientȁ9. We used the number and distribution of threatened species and a complementarity analysis to identify departments in El Salvador that require higher priority for conservation action. We applied a method for evaluating inventory completeness to our data set, and used species from reasonably well-surveyed taxonomic groups (Anura and Sauria) to carryout the complementarity analysis. The anurans (frogs) and saurians (lizards) had been inventoried relatively completely in 10 of 14 departments. The department with the most threatened species (35 of 76 threatened amphibians and reptiles) is Santa Ana, where many threatened species occur in pine-oak and cloud forest in Montecristo National Park.     

Optimized Spatial Priorities for Biodiversity Conservation in China: A Systematic Conservation Planning Perspective

By addressing several key features overlooked in previous studies, i.e. human disturbance, integration of ecosystem- and species-level conservation features, and principles of complementarity and representativeness, we present the first national-scale systematic conservation planning for China to determine the optimized spatial priorities for biodiversity conservation. We compiled a spatial database on the distributions of ecosystem- and species-level conservation features, and modeled a human disturbance index (HDI) by aggregating information using several socioeconomic proxies. We ran Marxan with two scenarios (HDI-ignored and HDI-considered) to investigate the effects of human disturbance, and explored the geographic patterns of the optimized spatial conservation priorities. Compared to when HDI was ignored, the HDI-considered scenario resulted in (1) a marked reduction (∼9%) in the total HDI score and a slight increase (∼7%) in the total area of the portfolio of priority units, (2) a significant increase (∼43%) in the total irreplaceable area and (3) more irreplaceable units being identified in almost all environmental zones and highly-disturbed provinces. Thus the inclusion of human disturbance is essential for cost-effective priority-setting. Attention should be targeted to the areas that are characterized as moderately-disturbed, <2,000 m in altitude, and/or intermediately- to extremely-rugged in terrain to identify potentially important regions for implementing cost-effective conservation. We delineated 23 primary large-scale priority areas that are significant for conserving China''s biodiversity, but those isolated priority units in disturbed regions are in more urgent need of conservation actions so as to prevent immediate and severe biodiversity loss. This study presents a spatially optimized national-scale portfolio of conservation priorities – effectively representing the overall biodiversity of China while minimizing conflicts with economic development. Our results offer critical insights for current conservation and strategic land-use planning in China. The approach is transferable and easy to implement by end-users, and applicable for national- and local-scale systematic conservation prioritization practices.     

Ecoregion Prioritization Suggests an Armoury Not a Silver Bullet for Conservation Planning

In the face of accelerating species extinctions, map-based prioritization systems are increasingly useful to decide where to pursue conservation action most effectively. However, a number of seemingly inconsistent schemes have emerged, mostly focussing on endemism. Here we use global vertebrate distributions in terrestrial ecoregions to evaluate how continuous and categorical ranking schemes target and accumulate endangered taxa within the IUCN Red List, Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE), and EDGE of Existence programme. We employed total, endemic and threatened species richness and an estimator for richness-adjusted endemism as metrics in continuous prioritization, and WWF''s Global200 and Conservation International''s (CI) Hotspots in categorical prioritization. Our results demonstrate that all metrics target endangerment more efficiently than by chance, but each selects unique sets of top-ranking ecoregions, which overlap only partially, and include different sets of threatened species. Using the top 100 ecoregions as defined by continuous prioritization metrics, we develop an inclusive map for global vertebrate conservation that incorporates important areas for endemism, richness, and threat. Finally, we assess human footprint and protection levels within these areas to reveal that endemism sites are more impacted but have more protection, in contrast to high richness and threat ones. Given such contrasts, major efforts to protect global biodiversity must involve complementary conservation approaches in areas of unique species as well as those with highest diversity and threat.     

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.     

Territory Occupancy and Parental Quality as Proxies for Spatial Prioritization of Conservation Areas

In order to maximize their fitness, individuals aim at choosing territories offering the most appropriate combination of resources. As population size fluctuates in time, the frequency of breeding territory occupancy reflects territory quality. We investigated the relationships between the frequency of territory occupancy (2002–2009) vs. habitat characteristics, prey abundance, reproductive success and parental traits in hoopoes Upupa epops L., with the objective to define proxies for the delineation of conservation priority areas. We predicted that the distribution of phenotypes is despotic and sought for phenotypic characteristics expressing dominance. Our findings support the hypothesis of a despotic distribution. Territory selection was non-random: frequently occupied territories were settled earlier in the season and yielded higher annual reproductive success, but the frequency of territory occupancy could not be related to any habitat characteristics. Males found in frequently occupied territories showed traits expressing dominance (i.e. larger body size and mass, and older age). In contrast, morphological traits of females were not related to the frequency of territory occupancy, suggesting that territory selection and maintenance were essentially a male''s task. Settlement time in spring, reproductive success achieved in a given territory, as well as phenotypic traits and age of male territory holders reflected territory quality, providing good proxies for assessing priority areas for conservation management.     

A Quantitative and Novel Approach to the Prioritization of Zoonotic Diseases in North America: A Public Perspective

Background

Zoonoses account for over half of all communicable diseases causing illness in humans. As there are limited resources available for the control and prevention of zoonotic diseases, a framework for their prioritization is necessary to ensure resources are directed into those of highest importance. Although zoonotic outbreaks are a significant burden of disease in North America, the systematic prioritization of zoonoses in this region has not been previously evaluated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study describes the novel use of a well-established quantitative method, conjoint analysis (CA), to identify the relative importance of 21 key characteristics of zoonotic diseases that can be used for their prioritization in Canada and the US. Relative importance weights from the CA were used to develop a point-scoring system to derive a recommended list of zoonoses for prioritization in Canada and the US. Over 1,500 participants from the general public were recruited to complete the online survey (761 from Canada and 778 from the US). Hierarchical Bayes models were fitted to the survey data to derive CA-weighted scores. Scores were applied to 62 zoonotic diseases of public health importance in Canada and the US to rank diseases in order of priority.

Conclusions/Significance

This was the first study to describe a systematic and quantitative approach to the prioritization of zoonoses in North America involving public participants. We found individuals with no prior knowledge or experience in prioritizing zoonoses were capable of producing meaningful results using CA as a novel quantitative approach to prioritization. More similarities than differences were observed between countries suggesting general agreement in disease prioritization between Canadians and Americans. We demonstrate CA as a potential tool for the prioritization of zoonoses; other prioritization exercises may also consider this approach.     

Spatial Models of Northern Bobwhite Populations for Conservation Planning

Abstract: Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.     

A Protein Prioritization Approach Tailored for the FA/BRCA Pathway

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a heterogeneous recessive disorder associated with a markedly elevated risk to develop cancer. To date sixteen FA genes have been identified, three of which predispose heterozygous mutation carriers to breast cancer. The FA proteins work together in a genome maintenance pathway, the so-called FA/BRCA pathway which is important during the S phase of the cell cycle. Since not all FA patients can be linked to (one of) the sixteen known complementation groups, new FA genes remain to be identified. In addition the complex FA network remains to be further unravelled. One of the FA genes, FANCI, has been identified via a combination of bioinformatic techniques exploiting FA protein properties and genetic linkage. The aim of this study was to develop a prioritization approach for proteins of the entire human proteome that potentially interact with the FA/BRCA pathway or are novel candidate FA genes. To this end, we combined the original bioinformatics approach based on the properties of the first thirteen FA proteins identified with publicly available tools for protein-protein interactions, literature mining (Nermal) and a protein function prediction tool (FuncNet). Importantly, the three newest FA proteins FANCO/RAD51C, FANCP/SLX4, and XRCC2 displayed scores in the range of the already known FA proteins. Likewise, a prime candidate FA gene based on next generation sequencing and having a very low score was subsequently disproven by functional studies for the FA phenotype. Furthermore, the approach strongly enriches for GO terms such as DNA repair, response to DNA damage stimulus, and cell cycle-regulated genes. Additionally, overlaying the top 150 with a haploinsufficiency probability score, renders the approach more tailored for identifying breast cancer related genes. This approach may be useful for prioritization of putative novel FA or breast cancer genes from next generation sequencing efforts.     

Spatial Prioritization for Biodiversity Restoration: A Simple Framework Referencing Past Species Distributions

The spatial prioritization of biodiversity restoration sites on a national scale lags behind that of protected areas. We present a simple framework for spatial restoration prioritization using complementarity analysis based on the differences between past and present species distributions and restoration feasibility. In the framework, sites that were not only diverse or unique in the past (high restoration potential), but also have high restoration feasibility (e.g. low anthropogenic pressures) are ranked higher. We applied the framework to endangered bird species that breed in Japan for which distribution data were available from nationwide distribution censuses conducted in 1978 and 1998. The data were compiled in a 20‐km grid resolution across Japan. We incorporated the degree of urbanization and number of farmers as a cost to optimize the sets of cells with regard to restoration feasibility. We successfully identified candidate sets of restoration cells, in which at most six can be allocated for each species under the constraint that the total area selected does not exceed 15% of the degraded cells. At most, 11 cells were allocated for each species under the constraint that restoration cells were within 15% of all ecosystem types. Comparison with the distribution of existing nature restoration sites revealed that only 9.3 or 9.7% (depended on the constraint) of high‐priority cells overlapped cells including existing restoration sites. Our framework provides an objective, efficient method to obtain a testable plan for biodiversity restoration, which might contribute to the attainment of the 2020 target set by the Convention on Biological Diversity .     

Seed Plant Endemism on Hainan Island: A Framework for Conservation Actions

Hainan, the second largest island of China, has the most extensive and best preserved tropical forests of this country. A network of 68 protected areas (54 of them are terrestrial) provides in situ conservation for the unique ecosystems of the island. We: (1) discuss an updated check-list of seed-plant species that are endemic to Hainan, (2) evaluate the extent to which the endemic flora has been the subject of molecular studies, and (3) investigate the conservation status of these species. We recognize 397 endemic species on the island, 271 of which are reported in the protected areas, and 144 of which have been Red-Listed (85 assigned to the Critically Endangered (40) or Endangered (45) IUCN categories). The families with the highest number of endemics are Rubiaceae (33 species), Lauraceae (27 species), and Poaceae (26 species). The island has only seven endemic genera, all of which are unispecific. Compared with other tropical islands, Hainan has a low number of endemics but our preliminary observations suggest that the island has a highly disharmonic flora when compared with that from the mainland. Nevertheless, most of the major clades of the seed-plant tree of life with representatives in China also have endemic species on the island. We argue that the low levels of endemism reflect the continental nature of Hainan and the fact that several areas of the island have not been fully inventoried. We were unable to find a single molecular systematic study focusing exclusively on the Hainan endemics; however, 24 of the endemic species have been included in phylogenetic studies targeting particular genera or families. Future research/conservation actions for the endemic flora of Hainan should focus in developing: (1) a red-list that assesses all 397 endemic species, (2) comprehensive floristic studies for the protected areas, (3) molecular phylogenetic and conservation genetic studies with a primary focus on the endemics, (4) studies to understand what ecological interactions are important in the biology of the endemic species, and (5) eco-geographical studies to identify Important Biodiversity Zones of endemism within Hainan and therefore potential new protected areas.     

Lead in Ammunition: A Persistent Threat to Health and Conservation

Many scavenging bird populations have experienced abrupt declines across the globe, and intensive recovery activities have been necessary to sustain several species, including the critically endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus). Exposure to lead from lead-based ammunition is widespread in condors and lead toxicosis presents an immediate threat to condor recovery, accounting for the highest proportion of adult mortality. Lead contamination of carcasses across the landscape remains a serious threat to the health and sustainability of scavenging birds, and here we summarize recent evidence for exposure to lead-based ammunition and health implications across many species. California condors and other scavenging species are sensitive indicators of the occurrence of lead contaminated carcasses in the environment. Transdisciplinary science-based approaches have been critical to managing lead exposure in California condors and paving the way for use of non-lead ammunition in California. Similar transdisciplinary approaches are now needed to translate the science informing on this issue and establish education and outreach efforts that focus on concerns brought forth by key stakeholders.     

An Integrative Computational Approach for Prioritization of Genomic Variants

An essential step in the discovery of molecular mechanisms contributing to disease phenotypes and efficient experimental planning is the development of weighted hypotheses that estimate the functional effects of sequence variants discovered by high-throughput genomics. With the increasing specialization of the bioinformatics resources, creating analytical workflows that seamlessly integrate data and bioinformatics tools developed by multiple groups becomes inevitable. Here we present a case study of a use of the distributed analytical environment integrating four complementary specialized resources, namely the Lynx platform, VISTA RViewer, the Developmental Brain Disorders Database (DBDB), and the RaptorX server, for the identification of high-confidence candidate genes contributing to pathogenesis of spina bifida. The analysis resulted in prediction and validation of deleterious mutations in the SLC19A placental transporter in mothers of the affected children that causes narrowing of the outlet channel and therefore leads to the reduced folate permeation rate. The described approach also enabled correct identification of several genes, previously shown to contribute to pathogenesis of spina bifida, and suggestion of additional genes for experimental validations. The study demonstrates that the seamless integration of bioinformatics resources enables fast and efficient prioritization and characterization of genomic factors and molecular networks contributing to the phenotypes of interest.     

A Novel and Cost-Effective Monitoring Approach for Outcomes in an Australian Biodiversity Conservation Incentive Program

We report on the design and implementation of ecological monitoring for an Australian biodiversity conservation incentive scheme – the Environmental Stewardship Program. The Program uses competitive auctions to contract individual land managers for up to 15 years to conserve matters of National Environmental Significance (with an initial priority on nationally threatened ecological communities). The ecological monitoring was explicitly aligned with the Program’s policy objective and desired outcomes and was applied to the Program’s initial Project which targeted the critically endangered White Box-Yellow Box-Blakely''s Red Gum Grassy Woodland and Derived Native Grassland ecological community in south eastern Australia. These woodlands have been reduced to <3% of their original extent and persist mostly as small remnants of variable condition on private farmland. We established monitoring sites on 153 farms located over 172,232 sq km. On each farm we established a monitoring site within the woodland patch funded for management and, wherever possible, a matched control site. The monitoring has entailed gathering data on vegetation condition, reptiles and birds. We also gathered data on the costs of experimental design, site establishment, field survey, and data analysis. The costs of monitoring are approximately 8.5% of the Program’s investment in the first four years and hence are in broad accord with the general rule of thumb that 5–10% of a program’s funding should be invested in monitoring. Once initial monitoring and site benchmarking are completed we propose to implement a novel rotating sampling approach that will maintain scientific integrity while achieving an annual cost-efficiency of up to 23%. We discuss useful lessons relevant to other monitoring programs where there is a need to provide managers with reliable early evidence of program effectiveness and to demonstrate opportunities for cost-efficiencies.     

Converting Endangered Species Categories to Probabilities of Extinction for Phylogenetic Conservation Prioritization

Background

Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists.

Significance

Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses.     

Xenosurveillance: A Novel Mosquito-Based Approach for Examining the Human-Pathogen Landscape

BackgroundGlobally, regions at the highest risk for emerging infectious diseases are often the ones with the fewest resources. As a result, implementing sustainable infectious disease surveillance systems in these regions is challenging. The cost of these programs and difficulties associated with collecting, storing and transporting relevant samples have hindered them in the regions where they are most needed. Therefore, we tested the sensitivity and feasibility of a novel surveillance technique called xenosurveillance. This approach utilizes the host feeding preferences and behaviors of Anopheles gambiae, which are highly anthropophilic and rest indoors after feeding, to sample viruses in human beings. We hypothesized that mosquito bloodmeals could be used to detect vertebrate viral pathogens within realistic field collection timeframes and clinically relevant concentrations.Conclusions/SignificanceTogether, these data demonstrate the feasibility of xenosurveillance and in doing so validated a simple and non-invasive surveillance tool that could be used to complement current biosurveillance efforts.     

Understanding Urban Demand for Wild Meat in Vietnam: Implications for Conservation Actions

Vietnam is a significant consumer of wildlife, particularly wild meat, in urban restaurant settings. To meet this demand, poaching of wildlife is widespread, threatening regional and international biodiversity. Previous interventions to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable consumption of wild meat in Vietnam have generally focused on limiting supply. While critical, they have been impeded by a lack of resources, the presence of increasingly organised criminal networks and corruption. Attention is, therefore, turning to the consumer, but a paucity of research investigating consumer demand for wild meat will impede the creation of effective consumer-centred interventions. Here we used a mixed-methods research approach comprising a hypothetical choice modelling survey and qualitative interviews to explore the drivers of wild meat consumption and consumer preferences among residents of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our findings indicate that demand for wild meat is heterogeneous and highly context specific. Wild-sourced, rare, and expensive wild meat-types are eaten by those situated towards the top of the societal hierarchy to convey wealth and status and are commonly consumed in lucrative business contexts. Cheaper, legal and farmed substitutes for wild-sourced meats are also consumed, but typically in more casual consumption or social drinking settings. We explore the implications of our results for current conservation interventions in Vietnam that attempt to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable trade in and consumption of wild meat and detail how our research informs future consumer-centric conservation actions.