Testing the extreme value domain of attraction for distributions of beneficial fitness effects

In modeling evolutionary genetics, it is often assumed that mutational effects are assigned according to a continuous probability distribution, and multiple distributions have been used with varying degrees of justification. For mutations with beneficial effects, the distribution currently favored is the exponential distribution, in part because it can be justified in terms of extreme value theory, since beneficial mutations should have fitnesses in the extreme right tail of the fitness distribution. While the appeal to extreme value theory seems justified, the exponential distribution is but one of three possible limiting forms for tail distributions, with the other two loosely corresponding to distributions with right-truncated tails and those with heavy tails. We describe a likelihood-ratio framework for analyzing the fitness effects of beneficial mutations, focusing on testing the null hypothesis that the distribution is exponential. We also describe how to account for missing the smallest-effect mutations, which are often difficult to identify experimentally. This technique makes it possible to apply the test to gain-of-function mutations, where the ancestral genotype is unable to grow under the selective conditions. We also describe how to pool data across experiments, since we expect few possible beneficial mutations in any particular experiment.     

Beneficial fitness effects are not exponential for two viruses

The distribution of fitness effects for beneficial mutations is of paramount importance in determining the outcome of adaptation. It is generally assumed that fitness effects of beneficial mutations follow an exponential distribution, for example, in theoretical treatments of quantitative genetics, clonal interference, experimental evolution, and the adaptation of DNA sequences. This assumption has been justified by the statistical theory of extreme values, because the fitnesses conferred by beneficial mutations should represent samples from the extreme right tail of the fitness distribution. Yet in extreme value theory, there are three different limiting forms for right tails of distributions, and the exponential describes only those of distributions in the Gumbel domain of attraction. Using beneficial mutations from two viruses, we show for the first time that the Gumbel domain can be rejected in favor of a distribution with a right-truncated tail, thus providing evidence for an upper bound on fitness effects. Our data also violate the common assumption that small-effect beneficial mutations greatly outnumber those of large effect, as they are consistent with a uniform distribution of beneficial effects.     

A general extreme value theory model for the adaptation of DNA sequences under strong selection and weak mutation

Recent theoretical studies of the adaptation of DNA sequences assume that the distribution of fitness effects among new beneficial mutations is exponential. This has been justified by using extreme value theory and, in particular, by assuming that the distribution of fitnesses belongs to the Gumbel domain of attraction. However, extreme value theory shows that two other domains of attraction are also possible: the Fréchet and Weibull domains. Distributions in the Fréchet domain have right tails that are heavier than exponential, while distributions in the Weibull domain have right tails that are truncated. To explore the consequences of relaxing the Gumbel assumption, we generalize previous adaptation theory to allow all three domains. We find that many of the previously derived Gumbel-based predictions about the first step of adaptation are fairly robust for some moderate forms of right tails in the Weibull and Fréchet domains, but significant departures are possible, especially for predictions concerning multiple steps in adaptation.     

The Consistency of Beneficial Fitness Effects of Mutations across Diverse Genetic Backgrounds

Parallel and convergent evolution have been remarkably common observations in molecular adaptation but primarily in the context of the same genotype adapting to the same conditions. These phenomena therefore tell us about the stochasticity and limitations of adaptation. The limited data on convergence and parallelism in the adaptation of different genotypes conflict as to the importance of such events. If the effects of beneficial mutations are highly context dependent (i.e., if they are epistatic), different genotypes should adapt through different mutations. Epistasis for beneficial mutations has been investigated but mainly through measurement of interactions between individually beneficial mutations for the same genotype. We examine epistasis for beneficial mutations at a broader genetic scale by measuring the fitness effects of two mutations beneficial for the ssDNA bacteriophage ID11 in eight different, related genotypes showing 0.3-3.7% nucleotide divergence from ID11. We found no evidence for sign epistasis, but the mutations tended to have much smaller or no effects on fitness in the new genotypes. We found evidence for diminishing-returns epistasis; the effects were more beneficial for lower-fitness genotypes. The patterns of epistasis were not determined by phylogenetic relationships to the original genotype. To improve our understanding of the patterns of epistasis, we fit the data to a model in which each mutation had a constant, nonepistatic phenotypic effect across genotypes and the phenotype-fitness map had a single optimum. This model fit the data well, suggesting that epistasis for these mutations was due to nonlinearity in the phenotype-fitness mapping and that the likelihood of parallel evolution depends more on phenotype than on genotype.     

Quantifying the adaptive potential of an antibiotic resistance enzyme

For a quantitative understanding of the process of adaptation, we need to understand its "raw material," that is, the frequency and fitness effects of beneficial mutations. At present, most empirical evidence suggests an exponential distribution of fitness effects of beneficial mutations, as predicted for Gumbel-domain distributions by extreme value theory. Here, we study the distribution of mutation effects on cefotaxime (Ctx) resistance and fitness of 48 unique beneficial mutations in the bacterial enzyme TEM-1 β-lactamase, which were obtained by screening the products of random mutagenesis for increased Ctx resistance. Our contributions are threefold. First, based on the frequency of unique mutations among more than 300 sequenced isolates and correcting for mutation bias, we conservatively estimate that the total number of first-step mutations that increase Ctx resistance in this enzyme is 87 [95% CI 75-189], or 3.4% of all 2,583 possible base-pair substitutions. Of the 48 mutations, 10 are synonymous and the majority of the 38 non-synonymous mutations occur in the pocket surrounding the catalytic site. Second, we estimate the effects of the mutations on Ctx resistance by determining survival at various Ctx concentrations, and we derive their fitness effects by modeling reproduction and survival as a branching process. Third, we find that the distribution of both measures follows a Fréchet-type distribution characterized by a broad tail of a few exceptionally fit mutants. Such distributions have fundamental evolutionary implications, including an increased predictability of evolution, and may provide a partial explanation for recent observations of striking parallel evolution of antibiotic resistance.     

Exploiting the Adaptation Dynamics to Predict the Distribution of Beneficial Fitness Effects

Adaptation of asexual populations is driven by beneficial mutations and therefore the dynamics of this process, besides other factors, depends on the distribution of beneficial fitness effects. It is known that on uncorrelated fitness landscapes, this distribution can only be of three types: truncated, exponential and power law. We performed extensive stochastic simulations to study the adaptation dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes, and identified two quantities that can be used to distinguish the underlying distribution of beneficial fitness effects. The first quantity studied here is the fitness difference between successive mutations that spread in the population, which is found to decrease in the case of truncated distributions, remains nearly a constant for exponentially decaying distributions and increases when the fitness distribution decays as a power law. The second quantity of interest, namely, the rate of change of fitness with time also shows quantitatively different behaviour for different beneficial fitness distributions. The patterns displayed by the two aforementioned quantities are found to hold good for both low and high mutation rates. We discuss how these patterns can be exploited to determine the distribution of beneficial fitness effects in microbial experiments.     

The distribution of fitness effects among beneficial mutations

We know little about the distribution of fitness effects among new beneficial mutations, a problem that partly reflects the rarity of these changes. Surprisingly, though, population genetic theory allows us to predict what this distribution should look like under fairly general assumptions. Using extreme value theory, I derive this distribution and show that it has two unexpected properties. First, the distribution of beneficial fitness effects at a gene is exponential. Second, the distribution of beneficial effects at a gene has the same mean regardless of the fitness of the present wild-type allele. Adaptation from new mutations is thus characterized by a kind of invariance: natural selection chooses from the same spectrum of beneficial effects at a locus independent of the fitness rank of the present wild type. I show that these findings are reasonably robust to deviations from several assumptions. I further show that one can back calculate the mean size of new beneficial mutations from the observed mean size of fixed beneficial mutations.     

The distribution of fitness effects among beneficial mutations in Fisher's geometric model of adaptation

Recent models of adaptation at the DNA sequence level assume that the fitness effects of new mutations show certain statistical properties. In particular, these models assume that the distribution of fitness effects among new mutations is in the domain of attraction of the so-called Gumbel-type extreme value distribution. This assumption has not, however, been justified on any biological or theoretical grounds. In this note, I study random mutation in one of the simplest models of mutation and adaptation-Fisher's geometric model. I show that random mutation in this model yields a distribution of mutational effects that belongs to the Gumbel type. I also show that the distribution of fitness effects among rare beneficial mutations in Fisher's model is asymptotically exponential. I confirm these analytic findings with exact computer simulations. These results provide some support for the use of Gumbel-type extreme value theory in studies of adaptation and point to a surprising connection between recent phenotypic- and sequence-based models of adaptation: in both, the distribution of fitness effects among rare beneficial mutations is approximately exponential.     

The distribution of beneficial and fixed mutation fitness effects close to an optimum

The distribution of the selection coefficients of beneficial mutations is pivotal to the study of the adaptive process, both at the organismal level (theories of adaptation) and at the gene level (molecular evolution). A now famous result of extreme value theory states that this distribution is an exponential, at least when considering a well-adapted wild type. However, this prediction could be inaccurate under selection for an optimum (because fitness effect distributions have a finite right tail in this case). In this article, we derive the distribution of beneficial mutation effects under a general model of stabilizing selection, with arbitrary selective and mutational covariance between a finite set of traits. We assume a well-adapted wild type, thus taking advantage of the robustness of tail behaviors, as in extreme value theory. We show that, under these general conditions, both beneficial mutation effects and fixed effects (mutations escaping drift loss) are beta distributed. In both cases, the parameters have explicit biological meaning and are empirically measurable; their variation through time can also be predicted. We retrieve the classic exponential distribution as a subcase of the beta when there are a moderate to large number of weakly correlated traits under selection. In this case too, we provide an explicit biological interpretation of the parameters of the distribution. We show by simulations that these conclusions are fairly robust to a lower adaptation of the wild type and discuss the relevance of our findings in the context of adaptation theories and experimental evolution.     

Effects of genotype on rates of substitution during experimental evolution

Rates of molecular evolution may vary widely between populations, yet the causes of this variation are still incompletely understood. Genetic differences between populations may make an important contribution to variation in rates of evolution, owing to differences in fitness, population size, mutation rates, or in the distribution of fitness effects (DFEs) of available beneficial mutations. By whole genome sequencing of Escherichia coli populations experimentally evolved in the presence of a quinolone antibiotic, we found that rates of substitution varied by genotype, with evidence for a contribution from a genotype's starting fitness. Subsequent targeted sequencing showed that genotypes with high average substitution rates were more likely to undergo the simultaneous fixation of several mutations, consistent with theoretical models of multiple mutation dynamics. Moreover, patterns of substitution were indicative of epistatic relationships between known resistance mutations.     

The Environment Affects Epistatic Interactions to Alter the Topology of an Empirical Fitness Landscape

The fitness effect of mutations can be influenced by their interactions with the environment, other mutations, or both. Previously, we constructed 32 ( = 2⁵) genotypes that comprise all possible combinations of the first five beneficial mutations to fix in a laboratory-evolved population of Escherichia coli. We found that (i) all five mutations were beneficial for the background on which they occurred; (ii) interactions between mutations drove a diminishing returns type epistasis, whereby epistasis became increasingly antagonistic as the expected fitness of a genotype increased; and (iii) the adaptive landscape revealed by the mutation combinations was smooth, having a single global fitness peak. Here we examine how the environment influences epistasis by determining the interactions between the same mutations in two alternative environments, selected from among 1,920 screened environments, that produced the largest increase or decrease in fitness of the most derived genotype. Some general features of the interactions were consistent: mutations tended to remain beneficial and the overall pattern of epistasis was of diminishing returns. Other features depended on the environment; in particular, several mutations were deleterious when added to specific genotypes, indicating the presence of antagonistic interactions that were absent in the original selection environment. Antagonism was not caused by consistent pleiotropic effects of individual mutations but rather by changing interactions between mutations. Our results demonstrate that understanding adaptation in changing environments will require consideration of the combined effect of epistasis and pleiotropy across environments.     

ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE AND STRESS IN THE LIGHT OF FISHER'S MODEL

The role of mutations in evolution depends upon the distribution of their effects on fitness. This distribution is likely to depend on the environment. Indeed genotype‐by‐environment interactions are key for the process of local adaptation and ecological specialization. An important trait in bacterial evolution is antibiotic resistance, which presents a clear case of change in the direction of selection between environments with and without antibiotics. Here, we study the distribution of fitness effects of mutations, conferring antibiotic resistance to Escherichia coli, in benign and stressful environments without drugs. We interpret the distributions in the light of a fitness landscape model that assumes a single fitness peak. We find that mutation effects (s) are well described by a shifted gamma distribution, with a shift parameter that reflects the distance to the fitness peak and varies across environments. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Fisher's geometrical model, with a Gaussian relationship between phenotype and fitness, we find that the main effect of stress is to increase the variance in s. Our findings are in agreement with the results of a recent meta‐analysis, which suggest that a simple fitness landscape model may capture the variation of mutation effects across species and environments.     

The Genetics of Adaptation for Eight Microvirid Bacteriophages

Theories of adaptive molecular evolution have recently experienced significant expansion, and their predictions and assumptions have begun to be subjected to rigorous empirical testing. However, these theories focus largely on predicting the first event in adaptive evolution, the fixation of a single beneficial mutation. To address long-term adaptation it is necessary to include new assumptions, but empirical data are needed for guidance. To empirically characterize the general properties of adaptive walks, eight recently isolated relatives of the single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) bacteriophage φX174 (family Microviridae) were adapted to identical selective conditions. Three of the eight genotypes were adapted in replicate, for a total of 11 adaptive walks. We measured fitness improvement and identified the genetic changes underlying the observed adaptation. Nearly all phages were evolvable; nine of the 11 lineages showed a significant increase in fitness. However, fitness plateaued quickly, and adaptation was achieved through only three substitutions on average. Parallel evolution was rampant, both across replicates of the same genotype as well as across different genotypes, yet adaptation of replicates never proceeded through the exact same set of mutations. Despite this, final fitnesses did not vary significantly among replicates. Final fitnesses did vary significantly across genotypes but not across phylogenetic groupings of genotypes. A positive correlation was found between the number of substitutions in an adaptive walk and the magnitude of fitness improvement, but no correlation was found between starting and ending fitness. These results provide an empirical framework for future adaptation theory.     

Fitness recovery and compensatory evolution in natural mutant lines of C. elegans

Deleterious mutation accumulation plays a central role in evolutionary genetics, conservation biology, human health, and evolutionary medicine (e.g., methods of viral attenuation for live vaccines). It is therefore important to understand whether and how quickly populations with accumulated deleterious mutational loads can recover fitness through adaptive evolution. We used laboratory experimental evolution with four long-term mutation-accumulation (MA) lines of Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes to study the dynamics of such fitness evolution. We previously showed that when homozygous mutant populations are evolved in large population sizes, they can rapidly achieve wild-type fitness through the accumulation of new beneficial or compensatory epistatic mutations. Here, we expand this approach to demonstrate that when replicate lineages are initiated from the same mutant genotype, phenotypic evolution is only sometimes repeatable. MA genotypes that recovered ancestral fitness in the previous experiment did not always do so here. Further, the pattern of adaptive evolution in independently evolved replicates was contingent upon the MA genotype and varied among fitness-related traits. Our findings suggest that new beneficial mutations can drive rapid fitness evolution, but that the adaptive process is rendered somewhat unpredictable by its susceptibility to chance events and sensitivity to the evolutionary history of the starting population.     

The Distribution of Fitness Effects of Beneficial Mutations in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Understanding how beneficial mutations affect fitness is crucial to our understanding of adaptation by natural selection. Here, using adaptation to the antibiotic rifampicin in the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa as a model system, we investigate the underlying distribution of fitness effects of beneficial mutations on which natural selection acts. Consistent with theory, the effects of beneficial mutations are exponentially distributed where the fitness of the wild type is moderate to high. However, when the fitness of the wild type is low, the data no longer follow an exponential distribution, because many beneficial mutations have large effects on fitness. There is no existing population genetic theory to explain this bias towards mutations of large effects, but it can be readily explained by the underlying biochemistry of rifampicin–RNA polymerase interactions. These results demonstrate the limitations of current population genetic theory for predicting adaptation to severe sources of stress, such as antibiotics, and they highlight the utility of integrating statistical and biophysical approaches to adaptation.     

Diverse phenotypic and genetic responses to short‐term selection in evolving Escherichia coli populations

Beneficial mutations fuel adaptation by altering phenotypes that enhance the fit of organisms to their environment. However, the phenotypic effects of mutations often depend on ecological context, making the distribution of effects across multiple environments essential to understanding the true nature of beneficial mutations. Studies that address both the genetic basis and ecological consequences of adaptive mutations remain rare. Here, we characterize the direct and pleiotropic fitness effects of a collection of 21 first‐step beneficial mutants derived from naïve and adapted genotypes used in a long‐term experimental evolution of Escherichia coli. Whole‐genome sequencing was able to identify the majority of beneficial mutations. In contrast to previous studies, we find diverse fitness effects of mutations selected in a simple environment and few cases of genetic parallelism. The pleiotropic effects of these mutations were predominantly positive but some mutants were highly antagonistic in alternative environments. Further, the fitness effects of mutations derived from the adapted genotypes were dramatically reduced in nearly all environments. These findings suggest that many beneficial variants are accessible from a single point on the fitness landscape, and the fixation of alternative beneficial mutations may have dramatic consequences for niche breadth reduction via metabolic erosion.     

Effect of host species on the distribution of mutational fitness effects for an RNA virus

Knowledge about the distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is essential for many evolutionary models. In recent years, the properties of the DMFE have been carefully described for some microorganisms. In most cases, however, this information has been obtained only for a single environment, and very few studies have explored the effect that environmental variation may have on the DMFE. Environmental effects are particularly relevant for the evolution of multi-host parasites and thus for the emergence of new pathogens. Here we characterize the DMFE for a collection of twenty single-nucleotide substitution mutants of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) across a set of eight host environments. Five of these host species were naturally infected by TEV, all belonging to family Solanaceae, whereas the other three were partially susceptible hosts belonging to three other plant families. First, we found a significant virus genotype-by-host species interaction, which was sustained by differences in genetic variance for fitness and the pleiotropic effect of mutations among hosts. Second, we found that the DMFEs were markedly different between Solanaceae and non-Solanaceae hosts. Exposure of TEV genotypes to non-Solanaceae hosts led to a large reduction of mean viral fitness, while the variance remained constant and skewness increased towards the right tail. Within the Solanaceae hosts, the distribution contained an excess of deleterious mutations, whereas for the non-Solanaceae the fraction of beneficial mutations was significantly larger. All together, this result suggests that TEV may easily broaden its host range and improve fitness in new hosts, and that knowledge about the DMFE in the natural host does not allow for making predictions about its properties in an alternative host.     

Multiple adaptive substitutions during evolution in novel environments

We consider an asexual population under strong selection-weak mutation conditions evolving on rugged fitness landscapes with many local fitness peaks. Unlike the previous studies in which the initial fitness of the population is assumed to be high, here we start the adaptation process with a low fitness corresponding to a population in a stressful novel environment. For generic fitness distributions, using an analytic argument we find that the average number of steps to a local optimum varies logarithmically with the genotype sequence length and increases as the correlations among genotypic fitnesses increase. When the fitnesses are exponentially or uniformly distributed, using an evolution equation for the distribution of population fitness, we analytically calculate the fitness distribution of fixed beneficial mutations and the walk length distribution.     

Mutational fitness effects in RNA and single-stranded DNA viruses: common patterns revealed by site-directed mutagenesis studies

The fitness effects of mutations are central to evolution, yet have begun to be characterized in detail only recently. Site-directed mutagenesis is a powerful tool for achieving this goal, which is particularly suited for viruses because of their small genomes. Here, I discuss the evolutionary relevance of mutational fitness effects and critically review previous site-directed mutagenesis studies. The effects of single-nucleotide substitutions are standardized and compared for five RNA or single-stranded DNA viruses infecting bacteria, plants or animals. All viruses examined show very low tolerance to mutation when compared with cellular organisms. Moreover, for non-lethal mutations, the mean fitness reduction caused by single mutations is remarkably constant (0.10–0.13), whereas the fraction of lethals varies only modestly (0.20–0.41). Other summary statistics are provided. These generalizations about the distribution of mutational fitness effects can help us to better understand the evolution of RNA and single-stranded DNA viruses.