Pollen and climatic change

Summary There has been increasing interest shown in the literature over the possible implications of global warming on the climate, ecology and economy of the world community. Aerobiologists in Europe could play an important strategic role in monitoring and predicting ecological change and in providing useful information for climatologists. The problems of identification and co-ordination are briefly discussed.     

On integrating climatic change and culture change studies

In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.     

Responses of tree populations to climatic change

The influence of climate on the population dynamics of trees must be inferred from indirect sources of information because the long lifespans of trees preclude direct observation of population growth and decline. Important insights about these processes come from 1) observations of the life histories and ecologies of trees in contemporary forests, 2) evidence of recent treeline movements in remote areas unaffected by human disturbance, and 3) results of experiments performed on forest simulation models. Each line of evidence indicates that tree population responses are influenced by many factors: including lifespans, seed productivity and dispersibility, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, competition, and disturbance. Some population characteristics should allow rapid changes in population sizes, while others should confer stability in times of environmental fluctuation. Interactions between controlling factors should result in a wide array of possible responses to climatic change. Interpretations of late-Quaternary forest dynamics must be based on an understanding of the biological processes involved in population responses to environmental variations.     

Rapid evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character linked to climatic change

The ability of organisms to respond evolutionarily to rapid climatic change is poorly known. Secondary sexual characters show the potential for rapid evolutionary change, as evidenced by strong divergence among species and high evolvability. Here we show that the length of the outermost tail feathers of males of the socially monogamous barn swallow Hirundo rustica, feathers that provide a mating advantage to males, has increased by more than 1 standard deviation during the period from 1984 to 2003. Barn swallows from the Danish population studied here migrate through the Iberian Peninsula to South Africa in fall, and return along the same route in spring. Environmental conditions on the spring staging grounds in Algeria, as indexed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, predicted tail length and change in tail length across generations. However, conditions in the winter quarters and at the breeding grounds did not predict change in tail length. Environmental conditions in Algeria in spring showed a temporal deterioration during the study period, associated with a reduction in annual survival rate of male barn swallows. Phenotypic plasticity in tail length of males, estimated as the increase in tail length from the age of 1 to 2 years, decreased during the course of the study. Estimates of directional selection differentials for male tail length with respect to mating success, breeding date, fecundity, survival and total selection showed temporal variation, with the intensity of breeding date selection, survival selection and total selection declining during the study. Response to selection as estimated from the product of heritability and total selection was very similar to the observed temporal change in tail length. These findings provide evidence of rapid micro-evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character during a very short time period, which is associated with a rapid change in environmental conditions.     

Mid-eocene climatic change,Southwestern California and Northwestern Baja California

A widespread paleosol of Paleocene and Early Eocene age occurs in southwestern California and northwestern Baja California. The dominant quartz-kaolinite mineralogy and cation-depleted chemistry of the buried soil indicate a humid, tropical paleoclimate similar to the modern equatorial belt. Although the Paleocene—Eocene paleomagnetic latitudes are similar to the modern latitudes (36–37°N to 32–33°N, respectively), rainfall was about 125–190 cm per year and average annual temperature was about 20–25°C in marked contrast to the present annual rainfall of 25 cm and average annual temperature of 16°C.A variety of indicators in the Late Eocene sedimentary succession suggests a change to a semi-arid paleoclimate. The nonmarine portions of the Late Eocene sedimentary record are dominated by a cobble conglomerate lithosome deposited in fluvial, alluvial fan and fan delta systems. Intertongued with the conglomerate is a sandstone lithosome deposited in flood-plain and nearshore marine environments. The conglomerate clasts were transported to the depositional site via a long-distance (200–300 km), moderate gradient, braided river system mostly by flash floods. Characteristic post-depositional, in situ fracturing of conglomerate clasts probably occurred due to salt crystallization.Within the flood plain sandstones, and to a lesser degree the conglomerates, are multiple well-developed caliche horizons of probable pedogenic origin. Clay minerals from the Late Eocene rocks are dominantly vermiculite and smectite with lesser chlorite and illite; this is in marked contrast to the kaolinite that comprises the underlying Early Paleogene lateritic paleosol.The character of the Late Eocene sedimentary succession indicates a semi-arid climate. Rainfall probably did not exceed 63 cm per year; it probably was seasonal and by occasional flash floods. This paleoclimate contrasts markedly with the earlier humid tropical paleoclimate and must indicate a widespread climatic change in late Middle Eocene time.