Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.     

Preliminary estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation in European soils through no-till farming

In this paper we estimate the European potential for carbon mitigation of no-till farming using results from European tillage experiments. Our calculations suggest some potential in terms of (a) reduced agricultural fossil fuel emissions, and (b) increased soil carbon sequestration. We estimate that 100% conversion to no-till farming would be likely to sequester about 23 Tg C y^–1 in the European Union or about 43 Tg C y^–1 in the wider Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union). In addition, up to 3.2 Tg C y^–1 could be saved in agricultural fossil fuel emissions. Compared to estimates of the potential for carbon sequestration of other carbon mitigation options, no-till agriculture shows nearly twice the potential of scenarios whereby soils are amended with organic materials. Our calculations suggest that 100% conversion to no-till agriculture in Europe could mitigate all fossil fuel-carbon emissions from agriculture in Europe. However, this is equivalent to only about 4.1% of total anthropogenic CO₂-carbon produced annually in Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union) which in turn is equivalent to about 0.8% of global annual anthropogenic CO₂-carbon emissions.     

不同耕作措施对伊犁河谷夏大豆农田土壤碳排放、碳平衡及经济效益的影响

为探明北疆伊犁河谷滴灌条件下促进夏大豆增产增效且实现农田生态系统固碳增汇的适宜耕作措施,于2017年在滴灌条件下,设置翻耕(T)、深松(ST)、翻耕覆膜(TP)与免耕(NT)4种土壤耕作措施,研究4种耕作措施对北疆夏大豆农田土壤呼吸、碳排放量、植株固碳量、经济效益及产量的影响。结果表明:不同耕作措施土壤呼吸速率峰值均出现在花期至结荚期,各处理间夏大豆土壤呼吸速率、呼吸总量、植株固碳总量和产量均以翻耕覆膜最高,深松次之,并均显著高于翻耕与免耕,免耕最低;不同耕作措施夏大豆农田生态系统碳平衡均表现为正碳平衡,在农业生产资料的各项投入中,均以灌溉用电的投入排碳量最高,占各处理的生产资料总排碳量的54.33%~65.24%,其中翻耕覆膜又因增加了地膜的投入,致使其农业生产资料排碳量和成本投入与其余3种处理呈显著性差异(P<0.05),表现为深松处理的经济效益与净碳吸收量最高,翻耕覆膜次之,使得碳的生产力、碳的经济效益、碳的生态效益均以深松最好,总体表现为ST>TP>T>NT;深松与翻耕覆膜均能够显著提升农田生态系统固碳与增产增效。综合考虑经济效益、生产投入以及地膜的回收率,深松具有最大净碳吸收量、最优经济效益与碳效益值,可以优先作为该地区农田实现增产增效以及固碳增汇的耕作措施。     

Which cropland greenhouse gas mitigation options give the greatest benefits in different world regions? Climate and soil‐specific predictions from integrated empirical models

Major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural crop production are nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions resulting from the application of mineral and organic fertilizer, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from soil carbon losses. Consequently, choice of fertilizer type, optimizing fertilizer application rates and timing, reducing microbial denitrification and improving soil carbon management are focus areas for mitigation. We have integrated separate models derived from global data on fertilizer‐induced soil N₂O emissions, soil nitrification inhibitors, and the effects of tillage and soil inputs of soil C stocks into a single model to determine optimal mitigation options as a function of soil type, climate, and fertilization rates. After Monte Carlo sampling of input variables, we aggregated the outputs according to climate, soil and fertilizer factors to consider the benefits of several possible emissions mitigation strategies, and identified the most beneficial option for each factor class on a per‐hectare basis. The optimal mitigation for each soil‐climate‐region was then mapped to propose geographically specific optimal GHG mitigation strategies for crops with varying N requirements. The use of empirical models reduces the requirements for validation (as they are calibrated on globally or continentally observed phenomena). However, as they are relatively simple in structure, they may not be applicable for accurate site‐specific prediction of GHG emissions. The value of this modelling approach is for initial screening and ranking of potential agricultural mitigation options and to explore the potential impact of regional agricultural GHG abatement policies. Given the clear association between management practice and crop productivity, it is essential to incorporate characterization of the yield effect on a given crop before recommending any mitigation practice.     

农田土壤固碳措施的温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力

农田土壤固碳措施作为京都议定书认可的大气CO2减排途径受到了广泛关注.研究表明,农田土壤固碳措施在主要农业国家和全球都具有很大的固碳潜力.但是,实施农田土壤固碳措施有可能影响农业中化石燃料消耗和其他农业投入的CO2排放和非CO2温室气体排放.这些土壤碳库以外的温室气体排放变化可能抵消部分甚至全部土壤固碳效果,构成了农田土壤固碳措施的温室气体泄漏.因此,将土壤固碳和温室气体泄漏综合计算的净减排潜力成为了判定土壤固碳措施可行性的首要标准.综述总结了目前较受重视的一些农田措施(包括施用化学氮肥、免耕和保护性耕作、灌溉、秸秆还田、施用禽畜粪便以及污灌)的土壤固碳潜力,温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力研究成果.结果表明,温室气体泄漏可抵消以上措施土壤固碳效益的-241%～660%.建议在今后的研究中,应该关注土壤碳饱和、气候变化及土地利用变化对农田固碳措施温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力的评估结果的影响.     

A minimally managed switchgrass ecosystem in a humid subtropical climate is a source of carbon to the atmosphere

Bioenergy has been identified as a key component of climate change mitigation. Therefore, quantifying the net carbon balance of bioenergy feedstocks is crucial for accurate projections of climate mitigation benefits. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has many characteristics of an ideal bioenergy crop with high yields, low maintenance, and deep roots with potential for belowground carbon sequestration. However, the assessments of net annual carbon exchange between switchgrass fields and the atmosphere are rare. Here we present observations of net carbon fluxes in a minimally managed switchgrass field in Virginia (Ameriflux site US-SB2) over 5 years (3–7 years since establishment). Average annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon was near zero (60 g C m^?2 year^?1) but the net ecosystem carbon balance that includes harvested carbon (HC) was a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (313 g C m^?2 year^?1). The field alternated between a large and small source of carbon annually, with the interannual variability most strongly correlated with the day of the last frost and the interaction of temperature and precipitation. Overall, the consistent source of carbon to the atmosphere at US-SB2 differs substantially from other eddy covariance studies that report switchgrass fields to be either neutral or a sink of carbon when accounting for both NEE and HC. This study illustrates that predictions of net carbon climate benefits from bioenergy crops cannot assume that the ecosystem will be a net sink of carbon from the atmosphere. Background climate, management, and land-use history may determine whether widespread deployment of switchgrass as a bioenergy feedstock results in realized climate change mitigation.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from four bioenergy crops in England and Wales: Integrating spatial estimates of yield and soil carbon balance in life cycle analyses

Accurate estimation of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of bioenergy crops requires the integration of a significant component of spatially varying information. In particular, crop yield and soil carbon (C) stocks are variables which are generally soil type and climate dependent. Since gaseous emissions from soil C depend on current C stocks, which in turn are related to previous land management it is important to consider both previous and proposed future land use in any C accounting assessment. We have conducted a spatially explicit study for England and Wales, coupling empirical yield maps with the RothC soil C turnover model to simulate soil C dynamics. We estimate soil C changes under proposed planting of four bioenergy crops, Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ), short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar ( Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray × P. trichocarpa , var. Trichobel), winter wheat, and oilseed rape. This is then related to the former land use – arable, pasture, or forest/seminatural, and the outputs are then assessed in the context of a life cycle analysis (LCA) for each crop. By offsetting emissions from management under the previous land use, and considering fossil fuel C displaced, the GHG balance is estimated for each of the 12 land use change transitions associated with replacing arable, grassland, or forest/seminatural land, with each of the four bioenergy crops. Miscanthus and SRC are likely to have a mostly beneficial impact in reducing GHG emissions, while oilseed rape and winter wheat have either a net GHG cost, or only a marginal benefit. Previous land use is important and can make the difference between the bioenergy crop being beneficial or worse than the existing land use in terms of GHG balance.     

碳中和目标下中国森林固碳量跨期分配及成本

我国实现碳中和路线图的“碳排放达峰”、“快速降低碳排放”、“深度脱碳实现碳中和”3阶段具有复杂且差异的减排形势。森林固碳作为我国实现碳中和目标的重要手段,其跨期分配是平衡产业减排与森林固碳关系、降低我国实现碳中和的成本代价、以最优成本分步实现碳中和目标的重要途径。本研究从成本优化分配理论出发,引入森林边际固碳成本理论,结合国内现有产业边际减排理论,对我国实现碳中和3个阶段的成本变化过程进行模拟。结果表明: 我国在“碳排放达峰”、“快速降低碳排放”、“深度脱碳实现碳中和”3个阶段,实现成本最优的森林年固碳量分别为0.20、7.75、19.82亿t,分别占当期总减排量的1.8%、17.5%、37.6%。相较于仅依赖产业减排,在成本最优设计下发挥森林固碳成本优势,使得碳中和3个阶段的总成本分别降低0.48、791.36、9092.53亿美元。在“碳排放达峰”阶段,森林固碳的成本优势十分有限,应当主要依靠产业减排;在“快速降低碳排放”阶段,森林固碳的成本优势逐渐凸显;在“深度脱碳实现碳中和”阶段,应当充分发挥森林固碳的成本优势实现“零碳”目标,否则将会面临十分高昂的成本代价,尤其对于脱碳成本十分高昂或永远无法完全脱碳的产业。最优成本设计下森林固碳可以节约9884.37亿美元的碳中和成本。     

Maize cellulosic biofuels: soil carbon loss can be a hidden cost of residue removal

Second generation biofuels, like cellulosic ethanol, have potential as important energy sources that can lower fossil fuel carbon emissions without affecting global food commodity prices. Agricultural crop residues, especially maize, have been proposed for use as biofuel, but the net greenhouse warming effect of the gained fossil fuel carbon offset needs to account for any ecosystem carbon losses caused by the large‐scale maize residue removal. Using differential ¹³C isotopic ratios between residue and soil in an incubation experiment, we found that removal of residue increased soil organic matter decomposition by an average of 16%, or 540–800 kg carbon ha^?1. Thus, removal of residue for biofuel production can have a hidden carbon cost, reducing potential greenhouse gas benefits. Accurate net carbon accounting of cellulosic biofuel needs to include not only fossil fuel savings from use of the residue, but also any declines in soil carbon caused directly and indirectly by residue removal.     

Economic Incentives in the Socially Optimal Management of Infectious Disease: When $$ R_{0} $$ is Not Enough

Does society benefit from encouraging or discouraging private infectious disease-risk mitigation? Private individuals routinely mitigate infectious disease risks through the adoption of a range of precautions, from vaccination to changes in their contact with others. Such precautions have epidemiological consequences. Private disease-risk mitigation generally reduces both peak prevalence of symptomatic infection and the number of people who fall ill. At the same time, however, it can prolong an epidemic. A reduction in prevalence is socially beneficial. Prolongation of an epidemic is not. We find that for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially suboptimal—either too low or too high. The social optimum requires either more or less private mitigation. Since private mitigation effort depends on the cost of mitigation and the cost of illness, interventions that change either of these costs may be used to alter mitigation decisions. We model the potential for instruments that affect the cost of illness to yield net social benefits. We find that where a disease is not very infectious or the duration of illness is short, it may be socially optimal to promote private mitigation effort by increasing the cost of illness. By contrast, where a disease is highly infectious or long lasting, it may be optimal to discourage private mitigation by reducing the cost of disease. Society would prefer a shorter, more intense, epidemic to a longer, less intense epidemic. There is, however, a region in parameter space where the relationship is more complicated. For moderately infectious diseases with medium infectious periods, the social optimum depends on interactions between prevalence and duration. Basic reproduction numbers are not sufficient to predict the social optimum.     

中国退耕还林工程温室气体排放与净固碳量

基于退耕还林工程建设期(2000—2010年)营造林过程边界内碳成本和边界外碳泄漏的计算,分析退耕还林工程及各区域碳成本和碳泄漏的年际变化、碳成本和碳泄漏的组成特征以及净固碳量的变化特征.结果表明: 退耕还林工程建设期内,西北地区、西南地区、东北地区、华北地区、中南华东地区的碳成本分别为3.38、3.64、1.03、1.66、4.38 Tg C,合计14.09 Tg C;碳泄漏分别为21.33、4.60、5.50、1.32、3.78 Tg C,合计36.53 Tg C.退耕还林工程及各区域工程措施碳成本组成特征较为一致,造林引起的碳排放是各区域最大的工程措施碳成本,其中退耕地造林是主要的造林碳成本来源.在各种物资消耗中,肥料引起的碳排放是各区域最大的物资碳成本,其次为建材,而燃油、灌溉和药剂产生的碳排放占各区域碳成本总量的比例仅为10%左右.退耕还林工程的实施在工程边界内外共产生温室气体50.62 Tg C,抵消了工程固碳效益的19.9%;在西北地区、西南地区、东北地区、华北地区和中南华东地区的抵消作用分别为38.9%、10.4%、26.1%、8.9%和15.5%.退耕还林工程建设期内的净固碳量为203.50 Tg C,年均净固碳量为18.50 Tg C·a^-1.碳成本和碳泄漏对退耕还林工程固碳的抵消较小,退耕还林工程在我国温室气体减排和全球气候变暖减缓上做出了巨大贡献.经济林营造采用精准施肥和为退耕还林工程区农户提供可替代的维持生存的方法是分别减少碳成本和碳泄漏的可能措施.     

Need for relevant timescales when crediting temporary carbon storage

Purpose

Earth faces an urgent need for climate change mitigation, and carbon storage is discussed as an option. Approaches for assessing the benefit of temporary carbon storage in relation to carbon footprinting exist, but many are based on a 100-year accounting period, disregarding impacts after this time. The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of using such approaches that disregard the long timescale on which complete removal of atmospheric CO₂ occurs. Based on these findings, an assessment is made on what are relevant timescales to consider when including the value of temporary carbon storage in carbon footprinting.

Methods

Implications of using a 100-year accounting period is evaluated via a literature review study of the global carbon cycle, as well as by analysing the crediting approaches that are exemplified by the PAS 2050 scheme for crediting temporary carbon storage.

Results and discussion

The global carbon cycle shows timescales of thousands of years for the transport of carbon from the atmosphere to pools beyond the near-surface layers of the Earth, from where it will not readily be re-emitted as a response to change in near-surface conditions. Compared to such timescales, the use of the 100-year accounting period appears hard to justify. We illustrate how the use of the 100-year accounting period can cause long-term global warming impacts to be hidden by short-term storage solutions that may not offer real long-term climate change mitigation. Obtaining long-term climatic benefits is considered to require storage of carbon for at least thousand years. However, it has been proposed that there may exist tipping points for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration beyond which irreversible climate changes occur. To reduce the risk of passing such tipping points, fast mitigation of the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration is required and in this perspective, shorter storage times may still provide climatic benefits.

Conclusions

Both short- and long-term perspectives should be considered when crediting temporary carbon storage, addressing both acute effects on the climate and the long-term climate change. It is however essential to distinguish between short- and long-term mitigation potential by treating them separately and avoid that short-term mitigation is used to counterbalance long-term climate change impacts from burning of fossil fuels.     

森林经营与管理下的温室气体排放、碳泄漏和净固碳量研究进展

森林在减缓全球气候变化和大气CO₂浓度升高上具有重要作用.森林经营与管理下的新造林和森林保护具有显著的固碳功能,其中,新造林和森林保护的固碳速率分别为0.04～7.52、0.33～5.20 t C·hm^-2·a^-1.同时,营造林过程中物资的生产和运输导致边界内产生温室气体排放;营造林导致的活动转移、市场效应和生态环境变化导致边界外产生碳泄漏.本文综述了国内外森林经营与管理活动边界内温室气体排放源的界定、计量方法、温室气体排放量与排放速率;边界外碳泄漏的类型、计量方法与碳泄漏量;净固碳量以及温室气体排放和碳泄漏对固碳的抵消强度.边界内温室气体排放对固碳的抵消强度为0.01%～19.3%,进一步考虑碳泄漏时可增至95%.若仅考虑森林经营与管理在边界内直接产生的温室气体排放与可测量的活动转移碳泄漏,森林经营与管理具有较好的净固碳效益,且相比于农田固碳措施在温室气体净减排方面具有更好的应用前景.随着我国各项重大生态工程新一期的开展和对工程固碳效益的关注,为增加重大生态工程对温室气体的净减排量,有必要在工程开展前进行合理规划、在工程开展过程中加强控制和监测以减少工程实施导致的边界内温室气体排放和边界外碳泄漏.     

Estimating carbon carrying capacity in natural forest ecosystems across heterogeneous landscapes: addressing sources of error

Evaluating contributions of forest ecosystems to climate change mitigation requires well‐calibrated carbon cycle models with quantified baseline carbon stocks. An appropriate baseline for carbon accounting of natural forests at landscape scales is carbon carrying capacity (CCC); defined as the mass of carbon stored in an ecosystem under prevailing environmental conditions and natural disturbance regimes but excluding anthropogenic disturbance. Carbon models require empirical measurements for input and calibration, such as net primary production (NPP) and total ecosystem carbon stock (equivalent to CCC at equilibrium). We sought to improve model calibration by addressing three sources of errors that cause uncertainty in carbon accounting across heterogeneous landscapes: (1) data‐model representation, (2) data‐object representation, (3) up‐scaling. We derived spatially explicit empirical models based on environmental variables across landscape scales to estimate NPP (based on a synthesis of global site data of NPP and gross primary productivity, n=27), and CCC (based on site data of carbon stocks in natural eucalypt forests of southeast Australia, n=284). The models significantly improved predictions, each accounting for 51% of the variance. Our methods to reduce uncertainty in baseline carbon stocks, such as using appropriate calibration data from sites with minimal human disturbance, measurements of large trees and incorporating environmental variability across the landscape, have generic application to other regions and ecosystem types. These analyses resulted in forest CCC in southeast Australia (mean total biomass of 360 t C ha^?1, with cool moist temperate forests up to 1000 t C ha^?1) that are larger than estimates from other national and international (average biome 202 t C ha^?1) carbon accounting systems. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of carbon stocks in natural forests is important to allow accurate accounting for losses of carbon due to human activities and sequestration of carbon by forest growth.     

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre‐industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture‐related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.     

The conversion of the corn/soybean ecosystem to no-till agriculture may result in a carbon sink

Mitigating or slowing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) has been the focus of international efforts, most apparent with the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soils is being advocated as a method to assist in meeting the demands of an international C credit system. The conversion of conventionally tilled agricultural lands to no till is widely accepted as having a large-scale sequestration potential. In this study, C flux measurements over a no-till corn/soybean agricultural ecosystem over 6 years were coupled with estimates of C release associated with agricultural practices to assess the net biome productivity (NBP) of this no-till ecosystem. Estimates of NBP were also calculated for the conventionally tilled corn/soybean ecosystem assuming net ecosystem exchange is C neutral. These measurements were scaled to the US as a whole to determine the sequestration potential of corn/soybean ecosystems, under current practices where 10% of agricultural land devoted to this ecosystem is no-tilled and under a hypothetical scenario where 100% of the land is not tilled. The estimates of this analysis show that current corn/soybean agriculture in the US releases ∼7.2 Tg C annually, with no-till sequestering ∼2.2 Tg and conventional-till releasing ∼9.4 Tg. The complete conversion of land area to no till might result in 21.7 Tg C sequestered annually, representing a net C flux difference of ∼29 Tg C. These results demonstrate that large-scale conversion to no-till practices, at least for the corn/soybean ecosystem, could potentially offset ca. 2% of annual US carbon emissions.     

Carbon for soils,not soils for carbon

The role of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration as a ‘win-win’ solution to both climate change and food insecurity receives an increasing promotion. The opportunity may be too good to be missed! Yet the tremendous complexity of the two issues at stake calls for a detailed and nuanced examination of any potential solution, no matter how appealing. Here, we critically re-examine the benefits of global SOC sequestration strategies on both climate change mitigation and food production. While estimated contributions of SOC sequestration to climate change vary, almost none take SOC saturation into account. Here, we show that including saturation in estimations decreases any potential contribution of SOC sequestration to climate change mitigation by 53%–81% towards 2100. In addition, reviewing more than 21 meta-analyses, we found that observed yield effects of increasing SOC are inconsistent, ranging from negative to neutral to positive. We find that the promise of a win-win outcome is confirmed only when specific land management practices are applied under specific conditions. Therefore, we argue that the existing knowledge base does not justify the current trend to set global agendas focusing first and foremost on SOC sequestration. Away from climate-smart soils, we need a shift towards soil-smart agriculture, adaptative and adapted to each local context, and where multiple soil functions are quantified concurrently. Only such comprehensive assessments will allow synergies for land sustainability to be maximised and agronomic requirements for food security to be fulfilled. This implies moving away from global targets for SOC in agricultural soils. SOC sequestration may occur along this pathway and contribute to climate change mitigation and should be regarded as a co-benefit.     

Modelling the impact of agricultural management on soil carbon stocks at the regional scale: the role of lateral fluxes

Agricultural management has received increased attention over the last decades due to its central role in carbon (C) sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation. Yet, regardless of the large body of literature on the effects of soil erosion by tillage and water on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural landscapes, the significance of soil redistribution for the overall C budget and the C sequestration potential of land management options remains poorly quantified. In this study, we explore the role of lateral SOC fluxes in regional scale modelling of SOC stocks under three different agricultural management practices in central Belgium: conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and reduced tillage with additional carbon input (RT+i). We assessed each management scenario twice: using a conventional approach that did not account for lateral fluxes and an alternative approach that included soil erosion‐induced lateral SOC fluxes. The results show that accounting for lateral fluxes increased C sequestration rates by 2.7, 2.5 and 1.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for CT, RT and RT+i, respectively, relative to the conventional approach. Soil redistribution also led to a reduction of SOC concentration in the plough layer and increased the spatial variability of SOC stocks, suggesting that C sequestration studies relying on changes in the plough layer may underestimate the soil's C sequestration potential due to the effects of soil erosion. Additionally, lateral C export from cropland was in the same of order of magnitude as C sequestration; hence, the fate of C exported from cropland into other land uses is crucial to determine the ultimate impact of management and erosion on the landscape C balance. Consequently, soil management strategies targeting C sequestration will be most effective when accompanied by measures that reduce soil erosion given that erosion loss can balance potential C uptake, particularly in sloping areas.     

Multi‐year carbon budget of a mature commercial short rotation coppice willow plantation

Energy derived from second generation perennial energy crops is projected to play an increasingly important role in the decarbonization of the energy sector. Such energy crops are expected to deliver net greenhouse gas emissions reductions through fossil fuel displacement and have potential for increasing soil carbon (C) storage. Despite this, few empirical studies have quantified the ecosystem‐level C balance of energy crops and the evidence base to inform energy policy remains limited. Here, the temporal dynamics and magnitude of net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange (NEE) were quantified at a mature short rotation coppice (SRC) willow plantation in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, under commercial growing conditions. Eddy covariance flux observations of NEE were performed over a four‐year production cycle and combined with biomass yield data to estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of the SRC. The magnitude of annual NEE ranged from ?147 ± 70 to ?502 ± 84 g CO₂‐C m^?2 year^?1 with the magnitude of annual CO₂ capture increasing over the production cycle. Defoliation during an unexpected outbreak of willow leaf beetle impacted gross ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange during the second growth season. The NECB was ?87 ± 303 g CO₂‐C m^?2 for the complete production cycle after accounting for C export at harvest (1,183 g C m^?2), and was approximately CO₂‐C neutral (?21 g CO₂‐C m^?2 year^?1) when annualized. The results of this study are consistent with studies of soil organic C which have shown limited changes following conversion to SRC willow. In the context of global decarbonization, the study indicates that the primary benefit of SRC willow production at the site is through displacement of fossil fuel emissions.     

Changes in soil organic carbon under biofuel crops

One potentially significant impact of growing biofuel crops will be the sequestration or release of carbon (C) in soil. Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents an important C sink in the lifecycle C balances of biofuels and strongly influences soil quality. We assembled and analyzed published estimates of SOC change following conversion of natural or agricultural land to biofuel crops of corn with residue harvest, sugarcane, Miscanthus x giganteus , switchgrass, or restored prairie. We estimated SOC losses associated with land conversion and rates of change in SOC over time by regressing net change in SOC relative to a control against age since establishment year. Conversion of uncultivated land to biofuel agriculture resulted in significant SOC losses – an effect that was most pronounced when native land was converted to sugarcane agriculture. Corn residue harvest (at 25–100% removal) consistently resulted in SOC losses averaging 3–8 Mg ha⁻¹ in the top 30 cm, whereas SOC accumulated under all four perennial grasses, with SOC accumulation rates averaging <1 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the top 30 cm. More intensive harvests led to decreased C gains or increased C losses – an effect that was particularly clear for residue harvest in corn. Direct or indirect conversion of previously uncultivated land for biofuel agriculture will result in SOC losses that counteract the benefits of fossil fuel displacement. Additionally, SOC losses under corn residue harvest imply that its potential to offset C emissions may be overestimated, whereas SOC sequestration under perennial grasses represents an additional benefit that has rarely been accounted for in life cycle analyses of biofuels.